Key Economic Events and Reports for the Week Ahead

Next week, markets will undoubtedly focus on two key events - the FOMC decision and release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report. The Fed meeting will take place earlier, on Wednesday, that’s why the relevance of NFP report will be much lower than usual.Rising inflation around the world is forcing central banks to cut stimulus and, in the case of emerging economies, rather aggressively raise rates. The Fed is expected to start with reducing monthly asset purchases (QE) and is expected to announce this decision next week. The key uncertainty is the pace of QE tapering: if the announced pace is higher than the market expects, then Treasury interest rates are likely to react upward, and the dollar may strengthen against other currencies. The moderate pace of tapering is unlikely to disappoint the dollar, as the Fed's intention to announce the start of QE tapering in November has already been priced in by the market. Thus, the risks for the dollar are shifted towards continuation of the rally.The Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released next Friday and, as mentioned above, will most likely have a negligible impact on the market, since labor statistics are primarily interesting because the Fed is guided by the dynamics of employment in making decisions on monetary policy. Since the Fed's stance will be known already on Wednesday, the NFP release will likely receive tepid market response.It is also worth watching next week for the events such as the Australian Central Bank's monetary policy decision, the Bank of England's interest rate decision, and the ADP US employment change report on Wednesday.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/key-eonomic-events-and-reports-for-the-week-ahead-31-10-2021"
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Ключевые экономические отчеты и события следующей недели

На следующей неделе состоятся сразу два очень важных для рынка события – заседания ФРС и публикация отчета Non-Farm Payrolls. При этом заседание ФРС состоится раньше, в среду, в связи с чем актуальность отчета по рынку труда будет не столь высокой, ведь ФРС уже обозначит свои намерения.Растущая инфляция по всему миру вынуждает центральные банки сокращать стимулирование и в случае развивающихся экономик, довольно агрессивно повышать ставки. ФРС будет начинать с сокращения QE и как ожидается на следующей неделе объявит об этом. Ключевая неопределенность в темпах сворачивания QE: если темп будет выше, чем предполагает рынок, то в этом случае ставки Трежерис скорей всего отреагируют вверх, а доллар может укрепиться против других валют. Умеренный темп смягчения вряд ли разочарует доллар, так как намерение ФРС сделать объявление о начале сворачивания программы в ноябре уже в целом учтено рынком. Таким образом риски для доллара смещены в сторону продолжения ралли.Отчет Non-Farm Payrolls выйдет в следующую пятницу и как уже было сказано выше окажет скорей всего незначительное влияние на рынке, так как трудовая статистика прежде всего интересна поскольку, поскольку ФРС ориентируется на динамику занятости в принятии решений по монетарной политике. Так как позиция ФРС будет известна уже в среду, рынок может оставить отчет NFP незамеченным.На следующей неделе также стоит следить за такими событиями, как решение Австралийского ЦБ по монетарной политике, решение Банка Англии по процентной ставке, отчет ADP по изменению занятости в США в среду.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/klyuchevye-ekonomicheskie-otchety-i-sobytiya-sleduyushei-nedeli-31-10-2021"
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ECB: Higher but Still Temporary Inflation Ahead

EU inflation in the coming years will be higher than previously estimated and only slightly below the ECB target of 2% in 2022, showed on Friday the ECB poll, which is one of the main sources of information which drive policy decisions of the Central Bank.According to the survey of professional forecasters, the growth of consumer prices in 2021 will be 2.3%, and in 2022 - 1.9%, compared with 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively, in the previous survey, which was conducted three months ago."Respondents attribute the upward revision mainly to higher energy prices and the impact of supply chain tensions," the ECB said."Although both of these factors were mentioned in the previous poll, the development of the situation in recent years, according to experts, was more tense and, as experts expect, this tension will be observed longer than previously thought."Inflation, which has already doubled the ECB's target level, will continue to accelerate and possibly reach 4% in the coming months due to skyrocketing commodity prices and industrial supply bottlenecks, which will put pressure on both producer prices and consumer prices.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ecb-higher-but-still-temporary-inflation-ahead"
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The charts that matter: The US dollar falls and Tesla hits the $1trn milestone

Tesla hits a market cap of $1trn and the US dollar weakens. Here’s how that has affected the charts that matter most to the global economy.

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Cryptocurrency roundup: Bitcoin falls below $60,000 and Tesla's Elon Musk U-turns again

Bitcoin falls below $60,000, Tesla's Elon Musk signals the company may accept crypto again and El Salvador buys more bitcoin. Saloni Sardana rounds up on the biggest crypto stories of the week.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/bitcoin-crypto/604037/cryptocurrency-roundup-bitcoin-falls-below
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Events to Look Out for Next Week

The FOMC,  BoE and RBA policy meetings and press conferences are the central bank highlights this week in the wake of  rising inflation and concerns over supply chain disruptions and slowing economies. These factors will keep the markets volatile next week as the new month kicks-off along with the COP26 and G20 meetings. On top of all this, the new month heralds a heavy dose of global data releases including PMI’s, US ADP and NFP data  and the Q3 earnings season rolls-on.

Monday – 01 November 2021

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• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 12:45) – The key data point from China follows the non-manufacturing number which is due on Sunday before the market open. The manufacturing number is expected to hold steady at the key 50.00 pivot point with the non-manufacturing number slipping slightly to 52.9 from 53.2.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:00) – The key ISM manufacturing number printed at 4-mth high in October at 61.1 and is expected to register a slip to a still healthy 60.4, still well below the 2021 high in April of 64.7
• Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – confirmation likely of the BOJ’s continued accommodative policy, improved outlook and inflation expectations.

Tuesday – 02 November 2021

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• Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (AUD, GMT 14:00) – Australian short-term yields have rocketed this week after stronger than expected retail sales and speculation that the RBA will officially drop its yield target during this meeting and amend its forward guidance. Westpac this week confirmed their expectation for a rate hike in Q1 2023, while current RBA guidance still talks of 2024.
• Unemployment rate & Employment Change (NZD, GMT 21:45) The Q3  unemployment rate is expected to move higher to 4.5% from 4.0% with the Employment change slipping to +0.7% from 1.0%, whilst the participation rate remains steady at 70.6%.

Wednesday – 03 November 021

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• ADP Employment change (USD, GMT 11:15) – The private payrolls report is expected to show a  significant drop to 369,000 from 568,000 in October. Although the link to the NFP data is clearly now broken many traders will still be focused on the size of the decline in private payrolls.
• ISM Services PMI  (USD, GMT 13:00) – A decline from Octobers spike to 61.9 is expected with the data slipping 0.4 to a still healthy 61.5. The cycle high was the August 64.1 up from the March low at 55.3.
• Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (USD, GMT 17:00)–The market expects the Fed to announce the widely anticipated taper, ($10-20bln, with expectations focused on $15bln) which should extend into the middle of 2022, though no signals are expected regarding the timing of an eventual rate hike cycle, which the market now assumes will be seen in 2022 and not 2023. Chair Powell’s press conference will follow 30-minutes after the announcement.

Thursday – 04 November 2021

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• OPEC-JMMC Meetings (USD, GMT All-day) – With Crude Oil prices continuing to track higher and the Energy crisis in Europe showing some signs of easing all eyes will be on the latest OPEC pronouncements. The 400k barrels per day increase for November was part of the organizations continued “gradual” increases agreed back in July. This is likely to remain in place, despite some pressure from within for greater production increases.
• Interest Rate Decision, MPC & Report & Votes & APF Report (GBP, GMT 11:00 & 11:30)  –  Markets have factored in prevailing BoE tightening expectations, which has led to the Pound losing upside momentum this week. Market participants will also be cognisant of higher interest rates at a time when the UK economic recovery is experiencing pronounced delivery/supply chain issues alongside near record energy prices. The consensus is for the BoE to hike its repo rate by 15bp to 0.25% in Q1 2022, although there seems to be an outside risk of such a move coming as soon as this meeting after the new BoE Chief Economist Pill affirmed that the meeting will be a “live” one, signalling that a move is a possibility, although unlikely. The Governor Bailey press conference will follow 30-minutes after the announcement.

Friday – 05 November 2021

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• Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Expectations are for a 380,000 October nonfarm payroll increase, after gains of 194,000 in September, 366,000 in August, and 1.091m in July. Expectations are for the jobless rate to hold steady at 4.8% for a second month, down from 5.2% in August. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.2%, after the 0.8% September increase, while the workweek ticks down to 34.7 from 34.8 in September. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after gains of 0.6% in September and 0.4% in August, while the y/y wage gain should accelerate to 4.8% from 4.6%.
• Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canada employment change disappointed last month at 65,000 in August, missing expectations, after the 157,100 surge the previous month, following the robust surprise of 231,000 back in June. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady this month at 6.9% continuing the decline from 9.4% at the start of the year.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell 

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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CADJPY – Central Bank meetings still can’t set a new direction

CADJPY, H4

This is another pair that enters the base adjustment mode before entering the new month. After moving up continuously since late September the Canadian Dollar was driven by oil prices and energy shortages, while the movement of the central banks of both countries this week has not yet set a new direction for this pair. At its meeting this week, the BoC kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, but surprised by ending its QE program to enter a new investment phase. The country’s economic growth forecast has been revised down to 5.1% from the 6% forecast in July amid warnings of rising inflation from energy prices and continued supply chain bottlenecks.

Like the BoJ yesterday, the BoC kept its interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, but cut its GDP forecast for this year to 3.4% from the 3.8% forecast in July. It cited sluggish consumption and slowing exports due to supply chain issues.

Key economic numbers to end the week are Canada’s Q3 GDP reading, after a sharp fall in Q2 of -1.1%, below the 2.5% expected by the market and down from the 5.5% seen in the previous quarter.

From a technical point of view the pair has been in correction mode since last week, having made a nearly six-year high at 93.00. On H4, a bullish flag is seen forming with declining momentum. MACD is moving in a narrow range near the 0 line. The RSI is hovering around the 50 level with the first support at 91.70. If it breaks down there will be a next support at the week low at 91.20 and could lead to a short-term downtrend. On the contrary, if the price is able to break through the original high of 93.00 this will confirm the bullish flag pattern and the uptrend will continue.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Key USD Bearish Threshold Remains Intact

Eurozone inflation was materially higher than the consensus forecastin October, making it slightly difficult for the ECB to maintain a huge stimulusbias in the monetary policy. The data on Friday showed that the broad rise inprices in October amounted to 4.1% (forecast 3.7%). At the same time, coreinflation, which doesn’t include fuel and other goods with volatile prices,also beat the forecast - 2.1% versus the expected 1.7%: At a meeting on Thursday, the ECB gave a signal thatofficials are closely monitoring inflation, but still expect it to decay soonerthan markets fear. Some officials, though, see a second round of inflationaryeffects, primarily caused by wage inflation, so they do not exclude that consumerinflation will remain above the target level of the ECB in 2023. In general, wecan say that the European Central Bank signaled a reduction in asset purchasesin December, which caused widening spreads between sovereign bonds of Eurozonecountries and a positive reaction from the euro. The spread between the 10-yearbonds of Italy and Germany jumped by 7 bp on Thursday as market participants becamemore confident that the ECB's artificial support for "second tier" EUsovereign bonds will soon begin to decline. Today this spread has added another10 bp:In addition to the factor of December tapering, Eurozone sovereign bonds are declining in price due to the risks of an early start of the ECB tightening cycle. Although Lagarde said it was important not to overreact to temporary supply shocks, the effects of which would soon wear off, market participants shifted their expectations of the ECB's first rate hike to October 2022, i.e. even earlier than previously expected. It is clear that the opinion of market participants regarding persistence of inflation is now very different from the opinion of the ECB, and if inflation risks do not materialize, battered bond prices may quickly recover, since the inflation premium will ultimately unwind. The euro will definitely benefit from this trend.Today, the data is due on US inflation and consumer sentiment from U. Michigan for October, key for the Fed's policy. A higher-than-expected rate of inflation, measured in terms of percentage growth of consumer spending, could mean a more aggressive pace of phasing out the Fed's asset purchases, which it is likely to announce in November. Next week, market participants will focus on the October Non-Farm Payrolls report, which will additionally help to improve expectations about the Fed’s policy move in the near future. Risks for the dollar are biased towards further growth next week as this week's correction appears to have been run out of steam. If DXY manages to close above 93.50 mark, this should be another strong technical signal for recovery next week, since a key bullish trendline will remain intact:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/key-usd-bearish-threshold-remains-intact"
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China’s Mega Banks Extend Profit Gains on Easing Bad Loans

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/chinas-mega-banks-extend-profit-gains-on-easing-bad-loans-2660494
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How to profit from sterling right now

Sterling has displayed a repeated cycle with the US dollar. Dominic Frisby looks at what that is and how investors can play that trend.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/currencies/604035/how-to-profit-from-sterling-right-now
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Dollar Edges Higher; Euro Gains After ECB Meeting

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-edges-higher-euro-gains-after-ecb-meeting-2660347
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Daily Market Outlook, October 29, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, October 29, 2021 Overnight Headlines Evergrande Makes Another Payment, Avoiding Default For Second Time Japan's Factory Output Drops Steeply As Nation Heads To Polls ANZ Expects RBA To Scrap April-2024 Yield Target Next Week NAB Sees RBA Scrapping Yield Target at Tuesday's Meeting Dollar Wallows Near One-Month Low As Strong Euro, Stock Rally Weigh Oil Prices Set For First Weekly Drop Since Aug As Supply Concerns Ease Bad Bets Trigger Waves Of Tumult In Short-Term Bond Markets Ether Rises To Record High, Renewing Alt-Season Expectations Asian Shares, U.S. Futures Slip After Earnings Disappointment Apple And Amazon Stock Dives Set To Erase $200 Billion In Value Coca-Cola Nears $8Bln Deal For Controlling Stake In BodyArmor The Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mixed this morning as market moods continue to fluctuate. Yesterday saw equities rise on Wall Street and in some European markets but futures prices point to falls today. Australian retail sales rose by a faster than expected 1.3% in September. In France, Q3 GDP rose by 3.0% up from a 1.3% gain in Q2. That is the first of several Eurozone GDP reports this morning. Eurozone inflation is forecast to have continued to accelerate in October. Already released data for some of the largest countries in the region point to a rise and we look for annual headline inflation to print 3.6% (from 3.4% in September), while the consensus expectation is for an even bigger rise. That is well above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target. At yesterday’s ECB policy update President Lagarde, while admitting that the rise inflation was greater than expected, still asserted it was likely to be temporary. We do expect ‘core’ inflation to be unchanged at 1.9%, which might provide some solace to the ECB. Nevertheless, with inflation possibly set to rise further before its next policy meeting in mid-December the Governing Council’s unity in maintaining a ‘dovish’ policy stance seems set to be tested. The first estimate for Q3 GDP growth in the Eurozone is expected to show quarterly growth of 2.0%, which would be little different to the rate seen in Q2. That would mean that the Eurozone grew more quickly than the US last quarter. Nevertheless, recent reports suggest that supply issues are also constraining output in the Eurozone, so the outlook for growth is uncertain. In the UK, Bank of England money supply and credit data for September may provide some insight into recent spending trends. Mortgage approvals and lending data may show whether housing market activity has slowed as the temporary cut in stamp duty has been removed. The September US consumer spending numbers that will be released today were included in yesterday’s GDP report. Expenditure clearly slowed in Q3 compared to the first half of the year but there seem to be some tentative signs that it was picking up again to the end of the quarter. The report will also contain the consumer expenditure deflator, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. It is likely to show a further rise in inflation in September. Government bond markets remain volatile. Shorter-dated yields in many markets continue to firm as markets price in the possibility of tighter monetary policy. Longer-dated yields have retraced some of the falls seen earlier in the week but are generally still below their levels of last Friday. In currency markets both the euro and sterling rose against the US dollar yesterday. The euro moved up in afternoon trading despite comments from ECB President Lagarde that seemed intended to reassure that Eurozone monetary policy would remain very stimulative.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )USDJPY - 115.00 730m. 114.60/70 1.46bn (C). 113.90/114.00 1.02bn (922m C). 113.70/80 816m. 113.00 688m. 112.50 590m. 111.00 851m.- EURUSD - 1.1820/30 434m. 1.1690/1.1700 803m. 1.1670/80 503m. 1.1650/60 1.53bn (758m P). 1.1630/40 922m. 1.1610/20 737m. 1.1590/1.1600 1.50bn (1.35bn P). 1.1570/80 435m. 1.1500/10 756m.- NZDUSD - 0.7210 707m.- USDCAD - 1.2450 684m. 1.2400/10 708m. 1.2370/80 677m. 1.2300/10 1.33bn (P). 1.2270/80 882m.- EURGBP - 0.8500 446m.- EURCHF - 1.0700 930m.- EURNOK - 10.02 420m. 40.00 420m. 9.88 423m.- USDCNH - 6.47 412m.Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.17 Bullish above EUR/USD backs off after trade to 1.1692 o/n EUR/USD backs off some from 1.1692 high yesterday, Asia 1.1674-90 EBS Trading quiet with whatever action in EUR focused on EUR/JPY EUR/JPY better bid but choppy, Asia 132.46-89... EUR/USD on hold below descending 55-DMA just above at 1.1700 Option expiries today provide some resistance, 1.1690-1.1700 E803 mln More below today though, total E3.7 bln from 1.1680 to 1.1600 strikes ECB Lagarde admitting inflation high trumping ECB easy policy stance? Minimal action in other EUR crosses, EUR/GBP 0.8466-70, EUR/CHF 1.0642-52 Some option expiries today - EUR/GBP 0.8500 E445 mln, /CHF 1.0700 E930 mlnGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.37 Bullish above. Technicals support, but news needed to break 1.3835 Touch softer at the base of a 1.3789-1.3803 with steady flow Sterling is often volatile on late month end rebalancing flows Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages and daily momentum studies climb, 21 day Bolli bands contract - neutral setup has turned net positive 1.3695 21 DMA then 1.3672 38.2% of the September-October rise key supports Well tested 1.3831, 50% of the 2021 fall and range top major resistance 1.3670-1.3835 range should hold into next week unless the USD trends London 1.3731 low and 1.3815 NY high are initial support and resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below USD/JPY off o/n lows, JPY crosses better bid at month end JPY sales dominate Tokyo action at month-end, USD/JPY up some, crosses bid USD/JPY bounces from 113.26 spike low yesterday, Asia 113.40 to 113.71 EBS Japanese importers good buyers into Tokyo fix, action choppy since Resistance/offers from @113.75, $1.8 bln option expiries today 113.75-114.00 Expiries today below too but smaller - 113.00 $674 mln, 113.50 $387 mln US yields steady above recent lows, Treasury 10s @1.579%, NY low Wed 1.519% Risk move mixed in Asia, Nikkei choppy, up after weak start, -0.1% @28,792 EUR/JPY buoyant in choppy trade, better bid, Asia 132.46-89 GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY better bid too, 156.32-95 and 85.29-77AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.75 Bullish above Resistance vulnerable as yields surge; RBA roils bonds AUD/USD poised to break 0.7557-59 resistance on early RBA rate hike bets Supported by surging bond yields on lack of RBA yield curve control Bond yield surges to 0.75% vs 0.1% target as traders capitulate... All eyes on Nov.3 RBA policy meeting as speculation grows YCC may be dropped Australia Sept retail sales rebound 1.3% as lockdowns ease... Daily close above 0.7557-59 opens 0.7599 July high; spt 0.7525-30, 0.7500-05

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-october-29-2021"
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Market Update – October 29 – USD Lower, Stocks hit highs, Apple & Amazon Miss

• USD (USDIndex 93.45) Slipped on a miss for 3Q GDP & the ECB ending PEPP in March but neither ruling out nor confirming rate hikes. Yields remains the main driver of sentiment as spreads remain at March 2020 lows.  Stocks hit record highs before surprises misses from APPL & AMZN,  FB re-branded to META “Meta is moving beyond 2D screens toward immersive experiences like augmented and virtual reality to help build the next evolution in social technology.” and Biden pushed hard for $1.75trn budget plan. Its also week and month end trading day.
• Evergrande – paid another bond dollar coupon (on default day
• US Yields (10yr close at 1.568) lifted in Asian now 1.61%.
• Equities new ATH for – USA500 -44 (+0.98%) at 4596 (Nasdaq +1.39%) – Big movers – CAT +4.00%, TSLA +3.78%, APPL+2.5% (then fell -3.4% after hours) – USA500.F back to 4566. Asian equities very mixed.
• USOil up from lows yesterday at $79.40 (again) to $81.40 
• Gold another volatile day (1810-1792) cannot hold $1800 and trades at $1794 now.
• FX markets largely flat at month end – EURUSD  rallied post ECB to 1.1692 now at 1.1665, Cable capped by 1.3800 trades at 1.3785, USDJPY now 113.60.

Overnight  Signs that the RBA is ditching its attempt at yield control, a stronger set of data from AUD (PPI, Retail Sales) & a weak set of data from JPY (Ind. Prod, Consumer Confidence and Housing Starts). French GDP – a big beat (+3.0% vs 2.2% & 1.1% last time) & CPI a tick stronger.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future has lost 61 ticks in early trade, Treasury futures are also under pressure. Tapering speculation has come back with a vengeance. ECB comments yesterday confirming that PEPP will end on time in March next year. The ECB now has until December, to make up its mind, the BoE meets next week and chief economist Pill (big Hawk) confirmed that it will be a “live” meeting, which means the possibility of a rate hike will be discussed at least. Stocks are hit as yields spike higher and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.45 and -0.2% respectively.

Today – German GDP, EZ CPI, US PCE Price Index,Chicago PMI, Canadian GDP Earnings: BNP Paribas, Daimler, Danske Bank, Eni, EssilorLuxottica, Safran, Signify, Swiss Re; Exxon, Chevron, Phillips 66, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (+0.19%) EUR giving up some of the post ECB bid. Faster MAs rolling over lower, 21Hr being tested, MACD signal line & histogram colling but still positive, RSI 54 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0051.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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EURUSD Poised to Decline on Potentially Dovish ECB Stance

ECB will hold a meeting today. Market participants are primarily concerned about the ECB’s reaction function to upside inflation risks, as well as how the European regulator perceives the prospects for “second-round” of inflation effects. This will determine the demand for European assets and, accordingly, the euro.Central banks around the world are gradually moving towards tightening monetary policy in response to rising prices and the associated rise in inflationary expectations of investors and households. The European Central Bank is considered one of the least inclined to rush to cut stimulus, but it should be borne in mind that inflation in the Eurozone accelerated to 3.4% (maximum since 2007), and the pace of asset purchases continues to remain at levels close to the levels of 2020, when the economy was experiencing deep recession.The Minutes of the September meeting of the ECB showed that the Governing Council discussed gradual slowdown in the pace of asset purchases under the PEPP program. Therefore, investors should be interested in how quickly the ECB will move to raise rates. This will depend on how worried the ECB is that the inflation shock, triggered primarily by supply disruptions, will translate into wage inflation, as an income shock could trigger another round of inflationary effects that could keep inflation elevated next year. In this case, it will harm recovery. That is why the yield curve in some developed countries begins to gradually flatten – long interest rates rise relatively to short interest rates, that is, the shift in demand happens from short-term debt instruments to the ones with longer-maturity. This may mean that expectations of stagflation are gradually beginning to emerge in the market – expectations of a period with low rate of real output and high rate of inflation.In the past few days, EURUSD has been in consolidation, fluctuating in the range of 1.158-1.1620. There is a risk that the ECB will disappoint investors today, pointing out a more modest pace of exit from the anti-crisis policy, which, in the face of price pressures, may trigger a search for yield elsewhere. In this case, the demand for the euro may suffer and the EURUSD rate may test the lower border of the downtrend at around 1.1520 and below:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-poised-to-decline"
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Dollar Up, but Near One-Month Low After ECB Policy Decision Strengthens Euro

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Dollar wallows near one-month low as strong euro, stock rally weigh

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How to help your children climb the property ladder

Getting your children onto the property ladder is far from simple. Nicole Garcia Merida explores the different options facing parents.

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Euro Jumps to 1-Month High as ECB's Lagarde Fails to Calm Rate Hike Bets

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The genuine bargains in the investment-trust sector

A discount to net asset value should never be the primary reason for buying this type of fund, says Max King. These seven, however, look too cheap and boast encouraging long-term records

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The huge potential of mRNA technology

The new technology made its name when it delivered Covid-19 vaccines in record time. But it could be pressed into use in many other areas too. Simon Wilson reports.

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Investors go wild for Trump’s Spac

Former US president Donald Trump launched a new social network last week that went through a special purpose acquisition vehicle (Spac). Matthew Lynn analyses.

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Share tips of the week – 29 October

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

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U.S. Posts Weakest Growth of Pandemic Recovery on Supply Woes

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ExxonMobil earnings preview for the third quarter of 2021

ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil is an American multinational oil and gas company headquartered in Irving, Texas. ExxonMobil was founded in 1999 after the merger of Exxon Corporation (which was called Standard Oil of New Jersey) with Mobil Corporation (which was called Standard Oil of New York State). The company has multiple sub-brands, namely, ISO, ExxonMobil Chemical, Mobil, and Exxon.

The company fell seven places and became the 10th on the Fortune 500 list due to the global shutdown that cut energy demand in 2020. It reported an annual loss of $22 billion in 2020, the largest loss the company has ever incurred, and there was also a huge rise in debt.

The company’s second-quarter 2021 profits came in at $4.7 billion, or $1.10 per share, compared to a loss of $1.1 billion in the second quarter of 2020. This increase in profits was due to increased demand for natural gas and oil and better quarterly contributions in Lubricants and chemicals. $9.7 billion in cash flow from operating activities funded debt reduction, capital investments, and dividends.

In July 2021, the company signed memoranda to explore the development of CO2 infrastructure in France and to participate in the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project in Scotland. The collaboration in the Normandy region of France seeks to develop CCS technology with the goal of reducing CO2 emissions by up to 3 million metric tons per year by 2030. The Acorn CCS project in Scotland plans to capture and store approximately 5 million to 6 million metric tons of CO2 per year by 2030.

Technical Analysis

On the daily time frame, the 50 SMA (blue) is above the 200 SMA (red) and this confirms the continuation of the bullish trend. The upward trend continues from October 29, 2020 until now. The highest peak reached was at 64.92 and the lowest support at 31.09. It is now trading at 64.13.

Meanwhile the MACD signal line and histogram are above the 0 line and continue to rise, and RSI (14) is at 67.41 and refers to the top which shows the rise.

Here in the following chart, we find the main pivot and the levels of support and resistance, and we find them converging to each other, so the main pivot appears at 62.92. There are three resistances: the first resistance at 63.49, the second resistance at 63.75, and the third resistance at 64.32. There are three supports and they are: the first support at 62.62, the second support at 62.00 and the third support at 61.70.

As for the Bollinger bands, the upper band of the volatility channel is at 64.35 while the downside comes in at 58.99 (20-day SMA at 61.70). We notice here that the upper, middle and lower bands are approaching each other, and this indicates a period of low volatility. We also find the Standard Deviation Index (20) at 1.369 in the oversold area, while the Average True Range (14) is at a value of 1.23. Hence the asset is showing an intraday increasing positive bias before the earnings release, with major support at 53.71. The medium-term outlook remains positive as the asset is flat at 4-month highs with a bullish crossover from the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages and rising MACD lines suggesting that the bulls are still in control. A break below 53.71 could open the door to 52.13 (August low), while a further rise above 64.14 could draw attention to the 70 area.

Click  here  to access Hot Forex’s economic calendar

Islam Salman

Market Analyst – Middle East

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Join Me Today For Our Weekly Live Trade & Market Analysis Session

Join Me Today For Our Weekly Live Trade & Market Analysis SessionMarkets are on the move, join me today for 'Real Time Actionable Analysis' on over 20 charts & some high probability setups, last weeks long USDZAR now risk free - @ 1pm BST today - register here for today's session bit.ly/32YUTrI#PlantheTradeTradethePlan #ManageYourRISK #ProcessOverOutcome #PlayingtheProbabilities #forex #futurestrading #StockTrading #tickmill_official #PalmTreeTrader

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Investment Bank Month End FX Flows

CITI: Month-End FX Hedge Rebalancing: October 2021 Preliminary Estimate· The preliminary estimate of month-end FX hedge rebalancing needs points to slightly above average USD selling this week.· Global equities bounced strongly in October after previous month’s losses with the US market leading the recovery. The MSCI US equity index reached a new record last Thursday, 21 October. Although US fixed income is down on the month, the gain in equities dominates and this has likely left foreign investors with US assets under-hedged.· The signal is a USD sell even against currencies like CAD where local equities have done even better than the US ones, because we assume foreigners hold more US assets and tend to hedge them to a greater degree.· Poor performance of Japanese assets means that foreigners may also buy JPY to reduce hedges, adding to domestic JPY buying needs. At +1.6 standard deviations, the signal to buy JPY and sell USD is strongest among major currencies this month.· There are no major data releases or central bank speakers currently scheduled ahead of the 4pm London WMR fix this Friday.

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Daily Market Outlook, October 28, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, October 28, 2021 Overnight Headlines Brazil Reveals Biggest Interest Rate Rise In Almost 20 Years Australia's Central Bank Declines To Buy Target Bond As Yield Jumps Australia Q3 Export Prices Rise 6.2% Q/Q As Coal Surges Australia’s Biggest Bank Now Sees First RBA Hike In Nov ’22 Japan’s Retail Sales Climb As Shoppers’ Virus Fears Ease China Warns U.S. That Support for Taiwan Poses ‘Huge Risks’ New Zealand Announces Phased Easing Of Border Restrictions ECB Expected To Push Back Over Mounting Rate-Hike Expectations Asian Currencies Weaken; S.Korean Won, Philippine Peso Fall Most Oil Extends Decline on U.S. Stockpiles Gain as Commodities Drop China's Winter Natural Gas Demand To Rise 10% From Year Earlier Bond Curves Flash Warning On Growth As U.S., U.K. Yields Slide Stocks Get Reality Check From Earnings, Central Banks In Focus Samsung Electronic Q3 Profit Rises To 3-Year High On Chip Sales Airbus Raises Targets, Rejigs Near-Term Aviation Production Goals Ford Motor Posts Stronger-Than-Expected Profit, Raises FY Forecast EBay Earnings Beat Expectations, But Forecast Underwhelms Market The Day Ahead Asian markets are lower this morning following yesterday’s declines in Europe and the US. President Biden plans to meet Democrat Congressional leaders ahead of his trip to Europe amid signs that passage of his fiscal package has stalled. Yesterday’s UK Budget update contained few surprises as most of the main details had been pre-announced. Stronger than previously expected economic growth allowed Chancellor Sunak to announce both a rise in government spending and lower borrowing figures. Today’s update from the European Central Bank is not expected to see any changes in monetary policy for the Eurozone. There may be some hints on what might replace the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) after next March, but it seems more likely that details will be provided after the next meeting on 16th December. What will be interesting is what ECB President Lagarde says about prospects of significantly higher inflation in the short term than it predicted only in September. So far, she and many ECB officials have sounded relatively relaxed and more comfortable with the view that rise will prove ‘transitory’ than many other central banks. Nevertheless, this week’s Eurozone CPI data for October are likely to show inflation continuing to rise sharply. Ahead of tomorrow’s release for the region as a whole today’s figures for Spain and Germany are forecast to see inflation at multi-year highs. In Germany the outturn is likely to be the highest since the early 1990s. However, the ECB will probably take some solace from the fact that ‘core’ inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is still considerably below the headline rate. Also of interest in the Eurozone will be October business confidence readings. Last month saw confidence down in services but, perhaps surprisingly given ongoing concerns about supply chain bottlenecks, up in manufacturing. Given indications that supply disruptions remain a key issue confidence in both is expected to have fallen this month. In the US, Q3 GDP quarterly growth is predicted to have slowed to about 3.5% annualised down from 6.7% in Q2. As US GDP is now back above its pre-pandemic level some slowdown was inevitable. However, the sharper and expected deceleration reflects the impact of supply issues and possibly consumers becoming more cautious. Next week the US Federal Reserve will need to weigh this up along with evidence of higher inflation in reaching its latest decision on monetary policy. Government bond markets saw some sizeable moves yesterday. Yield curves flattened as longer dated yields fell sharply but shorter dated yields rose in some cases as markets factored in concerns about a more aggressive tightening in monetary policy. In currency markets sterling edged down against both the euro and the US dollarG10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )- USDJPY - 114.60 466m. 113.70/80 3.03bn (1.89bn P). 113.50 426m. 112.90/113.00 1.73bn (1.49bn P).- EURUSD - 1.1650/70 942m. 1.1620/30 881m. 1.1600/10 1.77bn (1.17bn P). 1.1500 586m.- AUDUSD - 0.7500 680m. 0.7470 1.02bn (924m C). 0.7370 655m.- USDCAD - 1.2390/1.2400 510m. 1.2350/70 1.98bn (1.31bn C). 1.2300/10 616m.- USDCHF - 0.9170/80 650m.- USDCNH - 6.45 503m. 6.39 809m.Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.17 Bullish above Pivots around 1.1600 ahead of ECB EUR/USD opened 1.1603 and traded in a 1.1589/1.1609 range Heading into the afternoon it is trading at 1.1605/10 Market was very quiet ahead of the ECB meeting later today Market not expecting any change to the ECB's dovish guidance at this meeting EUR/USD support at 61.8 of 1.1522/1.1670 move at 1.1578 A break below 1.1575 targets full retracement to 1.1522 Resistance is at 10-day MA at 1.1617 and top formed around 1.1625GBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.37 Bullish above. GBP/USD within strike of 1.3750 as France – UK row heats up Cable gravitates to 1.3750 option expiry as tensions soar between France-UK France seizes a British trawler as fishing licence row heats up The 1.3750 strike rolls off at 1400 GMT 1.3709-1.3759 was Wednesday's post-UK budget range (1.3759 = NY low Tuesday) 1.3709 approximates to last week's low (1.3711 was pre-budget low Wednesday) 1.3829 was Tuesday's high -- before M&A news hurt the poundUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below USD/JPY remains heavy into London, month – end flows still Month-end position adjustments still weighing on USD/JPY Asia 113.87 to 113.50 EBS, spike low yesterday 113.29 More downside possible but expect more Japanese bids on way down Lower US long yields weigh but front-end yields higher, attractive? Option expiries in area today could still help contain action 113.00 $1.5 bln, 113.50-70 total $1.2 bln, 113.84-85 $1.25 bln Large in area tomorrow too, 113.75-114.00 $1.7 bln, to help cap? Most of Asia risk-off, Nikkei -1% at TSE close to 28,820.09AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.75 Bullish above Choppy as iron ore slide offsets rise in Aus yields AUD/USD opened +0.23% at 0.7519 and came under pressure Frustrated longs pared back as slide in iron ore provided excuse Dalian iron ore was down over 6% at one stage and AUD/USD fell to 0.7479 Aus yields soared again today after RBA failed to buy the April 2024 bond... Market took lack of intervention as a change in the RBA dovish outlook Market is now pricing in four rate hikes by the end of 2022 The sharp rise in Aus yields helped push the AUD/USD back to 0.7510 Support is at the 10-day MA at 0.7478, which was validated today A close below 0.7475 would suggest upward momentum is waning Key resistance is at the 200-day MA at 0.7559 with sellers ahead of 0.7550

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Market Update – October 28 – USD Mixed, Stocks Down, Yield Curve Flattens, Oil tanks

• USD (USDIndex 93.82) V. choppy session as the Yield spreads narrowed to March 2020 lows (2&5yr higher, 10&30yr lower) catalyst – Inflation worries and surprise ending of QE and earlier rates hikes suggested from BOC. Stocks down and Oil sank. Durable Goods missed but not as bad as expected, Trade balance at at record ($96.3 bn
• US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.529) lifted in Asian now 1.57%
• Equities lower – USA500 -23 (-0.51%) at 4551 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – MSFT +4.21%  & GOOGL + 4.96%, EXXON -2.6% JPM -2.08%  – USA500.F back to 4545. Asian equities weaker.
• USOil down on Inventories more than a double build – at 4.3m vs 2.0m and a draw down last week of 400k barrels. Low $ 79.39 earlier from $83.70 on Monday. 
• Gold recovers from $1783  low yesterday to breach $1800 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1650, Cable 1.3770, &   USDJPY – (after a strong day on Friday (113.40 low) now at 113.60.

ECB Preview: The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold today, after Lagarde signalled last month that the important decisions on the future of PEPP and possible changes to the older APP programmes won’t be taken until December. Still, markets will be hoping for some signals on the flavour of the discussion at the presser. The departure (by year end) of Bundesbank President Weidmann – the most hawkish and traditional central banker at the council – fueled speculation of a further strengthening of the older APP asset purchase programs. The ECB’s mandate will still have to be respected, but by keeping some flexibility for emergency situations the ECB could still send a dovish signal, even if it confirms in December that PEPP will end on time in March next year – as is widely expected.

European Open The December 10-year Bund future is up 4 ticks, but the 30-year future is moving higher long Gilt futures are rallying, as markets turn pessimistic on the growth outlook. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are managing slight gains though in line with US futures.

Today – German Unemployment, EZ Consumer Confidence, US GDP, PCE Prices Advance, Weekly Claims, ECB Policy Announcement and Press Conference   Earnings- Airbus, AB InBev, Carlsberg, Evolution Gaming, Nokia, Saint Gobain; Shell; Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Merck, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Yum!, Shopify.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.37%)  Recovering from BOC shock yesterday down to 0.8820 back to 0.8880 now.  Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising,  RSI 55 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Dollar Up, Yen Down as Investors Focus on Central Bank Policy Decisions

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Yen and euro under pressure ahead of central bank meetings

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The GBPUSD Rebounds Following Rishi Sunak Budget Speech

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Budget 2021: the chickens come home to roost

Rishi Sunak delivered his budget today amid a fragile and uncertain time. Max King analyses.

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Budget 2021: Here is what Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced

Rishi Sunak delivered his much anticipated Budget today. David Prosser explains what it means for you.

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BoC rate decision & US Durables kick off!

USDCAD fell from near 1.2410 to 1.2309 following the BoC announcement, where rates were left unchanged, as expected, and the Bank’s QE program was ended. The BoC moved its time frame for rate lift off to the middle two quarters of 2022, a bit earlier than previously expected. All together, a hawkish statement, which along with a morning rebound in oil prices, should continue to support the CAD.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Midweek Market Podcast – October 27

Inflation, Yields and Earnings dominated market sentiment this week as the USD found some support and commodity prices continued to soar.

HotForex · Midweek Market Podcast

 

The Market Week – October – Week 4  

As last week, Yields remain the key driver of markets, while the Greenback has found some support as stock markets hit new all-time highs. Central banks have come into focus and remain on the hawkish side as inflation data continued to suggest a “higher for longer” outcome. The Evergrande saga has a temporary reprieve and commodity prices continue to soar.

Still to come this week; Earnings from some major players including Amazon and Apple, Central Bank rate announcements from the BoC, BoJ & ECB, US GDP & PCE data and the usual potential month-end shenanigans.

The number and quality of the US jobs recovery grinds on and remains central to the FED’s tapering timeframe. The weekly US unemployment claims last week registered a new pandemic low at 290,000 and the long-term claims also improved significantly. Claims this week are expected to hold under 300,000.  

The vaccine rollouts continue to drive sentiment, and the Delta variant remains a significant concern. Asian lockdowns continue to ease as Melbourne ended its record 263-day restrictions. But spikes in rates in Eastern Europe continue to weigh as the vaccination rate starts to stall.  However, as booster jabs roll out in high-income countries, low-income country vaccination rates remain below 5%.

The USDIndex found support at 93.50 this week and was capped at 94.00, significantly below the one-year highs of last week.  EURUSD could not close over 1.1650 and struggles at 1.1600 ahead of the ECB on Thursday.  Likewise, USDJPY cooled from 4-year highs at 114.70 and tested 113.50 ahead of the BoJ also on Thursday.  Cable held its bid (topping at 1.3830 again) ahead of Wednesday’s budget but under 1.3750 as anticipation of a rate hike from the BoE before year end cools.

The major US stock markets posted new all-time highs as the third quarter earnings season continued its strong start. 81% of the companies in the S&P500 that have reported have exceeded Wall Street estimates. #TESLA rallied over 12% on Tuesday alone and joined the exclusive group of companies whose market capitalization exceeds $1 trillion.

Gold had a particularly volatile week. As the USD cooled, found support, and then rose, yields gyrated, and inflation data continued to move higher.  This week from lows at $1766 the price spiked to $1813 before slipping back under the psychological $1800 and finding support at $1780 and the 50-day moving average.

USOil prices continued to soar, printing new 7-year highs as demand outstrips supply, inventories continue to be drawn down and OPEC keeps production in check. This week the price peaked at $83.70 (again) before declining to $82.00 per barrel.

The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury Note remains very much in focus and a key market mover. A significant rally to 1.68% before slipping to 1.62% keeps rates elevated in the short-term. With a more hawkish FED, rising inflation, and markets pricing in a taper of $15bn per month from next week’s meeting, the focus has now turned to actual rate hikes moving closer than Q4 2022.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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USDCAD Rebound may Target 1.25 as BoC may Fail to Deliver Hawkish Surprise

European shares came under selling pressure on Wednesday ahead of the ECB meeting. Commodity markets and emerging market currencies pare down recent gains, indicating waning risk appetite. Another realm of risk assets, cryptocurrency markets, sustain deeper losses.Two key events for today are the meeting of the ECB and the Bank of Canada. The balance of risks for the Euro is slightly shifted downward (i.e., EURUSD sales are likely), since neither the economic component, nor the spreads of bond yields of the leading EU countries and the periphery do not currently contribute to the hawkish position of the ECB. On the other hand, a weak Euro in combination with rising commodity prices spur inflation expectations, which the ECB may reflect in its economic forecast today. An upward revision of inflation, together with an unchanged stance on tightening the policy, is a clear signal for the sale of the national currency as the expected real return on fixed income assets will need to be revised downward, i.e., investors will be forced to look for yields elsewhere (outside EU?)Depending on the degree of dovishness of Lagarde's speech today, EURUSD poised to test lower levels, especially lower bound of major downtrend –the area of 1.1520-1.1540:A number of US data yesterday indicated continued expansion - consumer sentiment from the Conference Board (above forecast), Dallas and Richmond Fed indices for manufacturing and services (above forecast). Durable goods orders are expected today to assess consumer expectations in the US in light of rising inflation pressures, including on expensive goods such as cars.The API report showed that reserves at Cushing could have decreased by 3.73 million barrels, total oil reserves increased by 2.32 million barrels, and gasoline and distillate stocks rose by 530K and 986K barrels, respectively. Market participants are closely following today's EIA report, in particular the Cushing inventory update. If it indicates decline below 30 million barrels WTI timespreads will be likely offered additional support.The Bank of Canada may announce a QE cut today and this is the baseline scenario for CAD which has already been factored into the exchange rate. Nevertheless, caution in the BoC’s outlook of future rate hikes may further weaken CAD, for this there are other prerequisites – weakness of the oil market, as well as technical setup in USDCAD: In the course of rebound from July lows, USDCAD made abreakout from the downtrend channel and can now target the upper bound ofcurrent short-term uptrend channel which coincides with major resistance levelat 1.25.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-rebound-may-target-1-25-as-boc-may-fail-to-deliver-hawkish-surprise"
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Apple: High Tech, High Income

An important week for tech company earnings reports has started with :

• Facebook, which reported third-quarter revenue this year totalling $29.01 billion, a 35% jump compared to the same quarter in 2020.
• Microsoft Corp. with revenues of $45.3 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2022, after a 22% increase from the same timeframe a year earlier, with net income growing 48% year-on-year to $20.5 billion in the quarter ended September 30, 2021, while operating income totaled $20.2 billion, up 27% year-on-year. Diluted earnings per share stood at $2.71, up 49% from the first three months of the 2021 fiscal year.
• Alphabet Inc. reported third-quarter earnings at $65.1 billion, beating expectations of around $63.3 billion and up 41% compared to the same quarter in 2020. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $27.99, much higher than the expected $23.48 and 70.6% higher year-on-year. Net profit jumped 68.7% year-on-year to reach $18.9 billion.
• Twitter Inc. reported revenue in the third quarter of 2021 totalling $1.28 billion, marking an annual increase of 37% but still missing expectations. On the other hand, it recorded an operating loss of $743 million and a net loss of $537 million, which was down from the operating income and net income observed in the same period in 2020. Meanwhile, diluted loss per share stood at $0.67 per share, worsened by earnings per share (EPS) of $0.04.
• AMD announced revenue for the third quarter of 2021 of $4.3 billion, operating income of $948 million, net income of $923 million, and diluted earnings per share of $0.75. On a non-GAAP* basis, operating income was $1.1 billion, net income was $893 million and diluted earnings per share was $0.73.

Apple will report its earnings for the fourth fiscal quarter (third calendar quarter) of 2021 on Thursday, October 28. In Apple’s earnings report last July, the results were a staggering $81.4 billion versus an estimated $73.3 billion with an EPS of $1.30 vs. $1.01 estimate. Will difficulties such as semiconductor supply constraints, which have affected industries from automobiles to telephones, affect earnings this time around? Apple faces the same cost and supply chain challenges as its peers and those problems may hit revenue this quarter and over the holidays. Companies may need to pay more for shipping and may struggle to procure enough semiconductors or other key materials.

According to a Bloomberg report, the tech giant has reduced its iPhone 13 production target by around 10 million units from the previous target of 90 million units. Although the long-term earnings impact is believed to be minimal, the reduction will inevitably also have an impact on short-term earnings and affect the stock price of the supplying company.

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/aapl/earnings-calendar

For Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter, analysts on average predict revenue of $84.8 billion, up 31.1% year-on-year and earnings of $1.24 per share, a 70% increase from what the iPhone maker reported last year. The quarter benefited from new releases in the iMac segment and iPad division, which last quarter recorded some of the fastest growth in a decade. Meanwhile, the 16-inch 64GB MacBook Pro, which is billed as the most affected product, experienced a delay in shipping until the first half of December, according to an Apple Insider report on Tuesday. There was no prior warning and no clarification for the move by the company, according to the report. This delay will not affect the current earnings report, but could be an issue that makes stock prices correct before the earnings report later. Apple’s third-generation AirPods, which were finally released and available Tuesday for $179, the third- feature a new design, better battery life, water resistance and improved audio quality.

Zacks’ Consensus forecast for current earnings is pegged at $85.49 billion, representing a 32.1% growth from the figure reported for last year’s quarter. The consensus mark for current earnings is pegged at $1.23 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days and showed a 70% growth from the figure reported in last year’s quarter. Zacks ranks Apple stocks #2 (BUY).

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/aapl/forecast

The stock price of AAPL (MT5: #Apple) since the beginning of the year until today has posted a gain of +12.2%. Specifically for the third quarter, it only rose +3.7% due to a deep correction in September. Based on 26 Wall Street analysts who offered 12-month price targets for Apple in the last 3 months, the average price target is $170.09 with a high estimate of 198.00 and a low estimate of 140.00. The average price target represents a 13.76% change from the last price of $49.51 with a strong buy rating. Technically the #Apple price position has been trading flat since the end of last week. Currently the price position is at 149.33 after trying to surpass 150.00. The asset price is on the median line and the 200-day EMA. MACD and RSI are validating further moves to the upside for the price’s recent peak at 157.25. A break of this price level will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend for the projected target of 172.40 (from draws 123.12-157.25 and 138.27). Immediate support is in the area of the 144.80 bounce that investors are anticipating for lower prices to buy. A disappointing earnings report, likely to bring asset prices back to the 138.27 support. Overall, asset prices are in a bullish mode.

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – Educational Center – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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How to invest as oil prices keep heading higher

Oil prices are soaring reversing a sharp meltdown seen at the depths of the Covid-19 crisis. Saloni Sardana explores how you can play the market.

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Market Update – October 27 – Yields up, Robust USD

• USD (USDIndex 93.84) – topped at 94 before retracing to 93.84 in Asia session.Wall Street rally to more new highs on the USA500 and USA30, with the USA100 closing in on its peak, before gains faded. Solid earnings continued to underpin optimism, and stronger than expected confidence and housing data helped too. – rekindled Fed tightening fears.
• The long end of the market saw yields dip, overlooking the inflation jump as the longer term outlook is still benign. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved up 1.4 bp to 1.622%. Australia’s 10-year rate moved up and the 3-year jumped nearly 16 bp after core inflation came in higher than anticipated and reached a 6 year high in data for the third quarter.
• FT: Alphabet and Microsoft smash estimates with $110bn revenue haul (+33% from Q3 2020) – surge in cloud computing, and a strong rebound in digital advertising – All eyes on US open. Big misses from Robinhood, tanking its shares – closed at 40.09
• Evergrande in focus again as authorities called on billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to support China Evergrande Group. Chinese authorities called on companies to make “active preparations” to meet payments on offshore bonds. – sell-off in seven weeks for Chinese tech shares.
• German import price inflation hit 17.7% in September- The breakdown showed that energy prices remain the main driving factor, & that the shortage of natural gas and the spike in oil prices are not the only problems hitting supply chains, with supply shortages likely to keep prices elevated into next year.
• USOil steadied in $82 – $83.
• Gold dip on robust USD, higher yields and ahead of central banks, at $1785.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3774, USDJPY – 114 from 114.30.

Today – US Durables and BoC rate decision and conference. Earnings:  Thermo Fisher, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Sony, ServiceNow, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, ADP, GM, Old Dominion, CME, Edwards Lifesciences, Norfolk Southern, Twilio, Ford, General Dynamics, KLA Corp., eBay.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+40%)  It spiked at 0.7535, faster MAs, rising and RSI at 60. Fast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising,  implying to further rise in the short term.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Amazon: Q3 Report Under New CEO

Amazon (#Amazon) – The online retail giant with a market capitalization of $1.68 trillion (after Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet) is due to report third-quarter results on Thursday, Oct. 28 after the market close, with Zacks forecasting a return per share of $8.72, down from $12.37 in the year-ago quarter. Sales are expected to be $111.85 billion, higher than the $96.15 billion in the same quarter a year ago.

Since the Covid-19 outbreak, the online retail business has continued to grow, however, after the easing of lockdown measures consumers seem to be returning to their old ways of living again. This trend can be seen in Amazon’s revenue for the past quarter, which was lower than analysts expected. As a result, the company’s share price has dropped more than 7% since its Q2 report, with the company commenting that this slowing growth may continue for the next few quarters compared to the period of the pandemic last year.

In addition to retail, the cloud business has also been one of the beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic, with Amazon Web Services (AWS), Amazon’s cloud division, last quarter generating $14.8 billion in revenue and selling 13% of $113.08 billion in total sales in Q2. The expansion of the new บริการใหม่ของ AWS include the addition of new users Arctic Wolf Networks, Sun Life, and a partnership with Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to develop services for 21 hotel brands, which are all expected to contribute to cloud revenue. Continued growth is expected in Q3, with Zacks expecting AWS revenue in Q3 to be $15.5 billion, while the Amazon Prime streaming division, which operates in 22 countries, generated $7.9 billion in the past quarter, an increase of 28% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Another key change that could affect Q3 results is the departure of Jeff Bezos as CEO in Q2 , replaced by cloud computing head Andy Jassy.

Amazon’s share price from year-to-year is up 3.66%; after falling from the all-time high zone ($3,773.00) from the Q2 report, it is now trading in the $3376.00 zone in the triangle above the MA20 and MA200. The narrowing of the price in the triangle indicates an unclear direction and the momentum is decreasing. This is consistent with the MACD moving near the 0 line and the RSI near the 50 level. We may see the company’s share price breaking out of this triangle. But if the earnings are close to the expected numbers, the share price may continue to swing within the triangle frame. It has a first support at the MA200 at $3,320.00 and a low zone at $3,175.00, while the baseline is at $3,460.00 and quarter high zone $3,550.00.

The factors that could put pressure on the company’s stock price later include inflationary pressures and Fed movements, while supply chain problems and recent shortages in semiconductors are also likely to affect the sales of related products especially during the upcoming major shopping season.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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