GBPJPY Potential for bullish rise to previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleGBPJPY Potential for bullish rise to previous swing highTypeBullish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for GBPJPY is bullish with the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud. To add confluence to this bias, price is along an ascending trendline.Looking for price to rise from the pivot to ride the bullish momentum towards the resistance where the overlap resistance is.It’s also worth noting that there is an intermediate resistance here, where price might struggle to break though.

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FOMO Friday: Copper Falls 5%

Copper Comes A CropperAs the last full trading week of February comes to a close, we’ve seen several key developments with the January FOMC minutes, the first comments from incoming BOJ head Ueda and the G20 summit getting underway. Looking across markets, we haven’t been treated to as many big moves as we’ve seen in prior weeks. However, there has still been some noteworthy action and chatting with traders ahead of the weekend it seems the big move capturing most attention is the almost 5% reversal lower in Copper from the week’s highs. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If not? There’s always next week!What Caused the Move?Hawkish Fed ExpectationsThe main driver behind the decline in copper from the initial highs of the week has been the uptick in hawkish Fed expectations. On the back of the recent run of hot US data we’ve seen, the market has become increasingly wary of the Fed adopting a more hawkish stance. Having pivoted away from larger hikes twice now, the recent increase in January inflation has spooked markets a little, raising the risks of the Fed stepping back up the pace of its tightening campaign.FOMC MinutesThis week, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday were seen bolstering this hawkish narrative. The minutes showed that several members were in support of a larger hike in January, ahead of getting the news that inflation had spiked again. These details in line with the jump in CPI have seen market pricing for a larger .5% hike in March rising from less than 10% to around 25%.Downside Risks for CopperAs a result of the resultant strength in USD and US yields, commodities prices have been hit sharply with copper in particular suffering. Today the market will receive a further piece of US data with the latest core PCE reading due. Should we see strength in this reading, copper prices are likely to fall further near-term with sharpened focus on the chances of a larger hike in March or a more hawkish outlook from the Fed.Technical ViewsCopperThe second attempt at breaking above the 4.1185 has seen the market failing and falling back below the level. With momentum studies turned bearish here, the focus is on a further push lower while under the level with 3.9410 the next support to watch. A break of this level will open the way for a deeper move towards 3.6745.

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Market Spotlight: USDCAD Breaking Out Ahead of Core PCE

Yellen Says US Can Avoid Hard LandingUS stocks were seen climbing off the lows yesterday as comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen helped boost sentiment. The former Fed chair was speaking on the side-lines of the G20 summit and told reporters that she believes the US has the potential to avoid a hard landing. Citing the strength of the US labour market and a stronger balance sheet than pre-GFC, Yellen said that the economy is in good shape and noted the declines in inflation as a further encouraging sign.Core PCE Up NextYellen’s comments come just ahead of today’s US core PCE data. The market will be closely watching the release, given that it Is used by the Fed as a primary gauge of inflation, more so than CPI. On the back of the uptick in January inflation, expectations are for a similar lift with analysts projecting a 0.4% from 0.3% monthly increase. Any result at this level or above should keep the current narrative of hawkish Fed expectations intact, driving USD higher.Where To Trade?With Canadian CPI seen undershooting forecasts last month, in stark contrast to the US, the BOC’s current “on hold” guidance looks solid. With divergence opening up once again between the Fed and the BOC, USDCAD looks vulnerable to further upside if today’s data comes in hot.Technical ViewsUSDCADThe rally in USDCAD off the recent lows has seen price breaking out above the bear trend line from last year’s highs and above the 1.3501 level. While above here the focus is on a further push higher towards the 1.3683 level, in line with bullish momentum studies readings. Above 13683, 1.3839 is the bigger target to play for.

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Market Spotlight: JPY Falls As Ueda Says Rates to Stay Low

Rates to Stay LowThe Japanese Yen has come under pressure across the European open on Friday following seemingly dovish comments from incoming BOJ governor Ueda. Speaking at the Japanese Diet, Ueda told members of parliament that he felt the BOJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy is still appropriate for now and signalled that he is in no rush to raise rates. There has been a great deal of speculation regarding Ueda’s views on monetary policy and with these comments marking his first formal remarks, traders have gained some important clarity. The initial market reaction has seen the Nikkei rallying while JPY comes off.Uncertainty Ahead for JapanWhile Ueda suggested there was room for adjusting the bank’s yield curve control target, urging the BOJ to be creative with monetary policy, timing was still the key issue to be resolved, according to Ueda. In terms of the broader outlook for the economy, Ueda cited his view that the surge in inflation was a function of elevated import costs, not heightened demand, and warned that there is a great deal of uncertainty in the Japanese economic outlook.Continuity For NowFurther out, Ueda said that while it will likely take some time before trend inflation is sustainably at or above 2%, once there the BOJ consider normalising monetary policy. Notably, Ueda said that this would be achieved through hiking rates on deposits held at the bank by financial institutions rather than selling bonds. The key message for now is one of continuity with Ueda clearly not looking to rock the boat. With this in mind, JPY is likely to remain pressured while Japanese asset prices should remain supported.Technical ViewsUSDJPYThe rally off the lows in USDJPY has seen the market breaking out above the bear channel from last year’s highs and above the 132.91 level. While above here, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 139.33 level, in line with bullish momentum studies readings. Retail market remains heavily short, encouraging a further push higher.

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USDCAD Potential Rise to Previous overlap resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential rise to a key overlap resistanceTypeBullish rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish as the current price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 1.35156 where the overlap support is. we are looking to take profit at 1.37020 where the overlap resistance is.

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Market Spotlight: S&P Testing Channel Lows Ahead of US GDP

US Adv GDP Up NextOn the back of last night’s FOMC minutes, focus today switches US advanced GDP for Q1. On the back of the prior quarter’s 2.9% reading, the market is looking for an unchanged result today. Clearly, with the recent narrative of surprising resilience in the US economy creating room for the Fed to push ahead with tightening, today’s data will be of high importance.Bullish USD/ Bearish Equities ScenarioIf market forecasts are surpassed, this will further bolster the view that the Fed might lean towards a higher rate increase in March, or a more hawkish outlook. With last nights minutes showing that some Fed members backed a larger hike in January, there is a very real risk of such a move given the recent run of US data we’ve seen. In this scenario, USD is likely to be firmly bid while risk assets should recoil near-term.Bearish USD/ Bullish Equities ScenarioOn the other hand, if today’s data undershoots forecasts, this might suggest that the market has become a little carried away recently with the hawkish Fed perspective. In this scenario, USD is likely to weaken and stocks should see better gains as market pricing leans back towards a smaller .25% hike in March.Technical ViewsS&PThe market is at in interesting point here as we test the bull channel lows. A fresh move higher in USD today should see a downside break of the channel where the big focus will then be a test of the 3910 support. This is a key pivot for the index and a break below here will be firmly bearish. However, if this area holds, or we move higher from current levels, focus will be on the 4153.50 level, a break of which will open the way for a move back up towards 4305 next.

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Market Spotlight: Nvidia Beats Forecasts & Signals Growth Ahead

Nvidia Bounces BackThe big story from US earnings yesterday was the better than forecast results from tech group Nvidia. Rebounding from the prior quarter’s losses, the group posted Q4 EPS of $0.88 vs $0.81 expected on revenues of $6.051 billion vs $6.015 billion expected. Worth noting that year-on-year both EPS and revenues were lower. However, along with quarter-on-quarter uptick, investors appeared buoyed by the group’s more optimistic 2023 outlook when compared with some of the gloomier forecasts we’ve heard across this earnings season.AI Demand GrowthThe big driver behind Nvidia’s quarterly growth was the success in it’s data centre business, fuelled by a rise in chip sales for AI. Nvidia’s position as a leading producer of graphics cards has helped it capitalise on this new growth area.  Looking ahead, the group was optimistic about its chances of continued growth linked to surging demand from AI interest. With businesses of all sizes reportedly feeling an urgency to invest in AI capabilities, Nvidia is well positioned to ride the wave via its chip sales and cloud businesses. For Q1, the company forecast revenues of $6.5 billion, topping Wall Street’s own $6.35 billion forecasts.Technical ViewsNvidiaThe rally off last year’s lows has seen the stock breaking out above the bear trend line from 2022 highs and more recently, above the 193.10 level resistance. This is a key pivot for the stock and while above here the focus is on a further move higher towards the 285.60. Should price slip back below the level, the next support will be the rising trend line off Q3 2022 lows.

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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to Previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise to Previous swing high TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish as the current price is above Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 1.35142 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is, and take profit at 1.37038 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci Line are.

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Market Spotlight: AUDNZD Plunges on RBNZ Hike - FOMC Minutes Next

RBNZ Hikes Again – More to Come, But Slower PaceThe RBNZ hiked rates once again overnight at its February MPR meeting. Despite signals in November of a further .75% hike to come, the bank ultimately opted for a smaller hike in the face of the recent weather disasters in New Zealand which have ravaged parts of the country and are expected to exacerbate the economic issues facing the country. Along with the smaller hike, the RBNZ also forecast a further pivot in April with a projected .25% hike. Finally, while the bank maintained its peak rate level, the RBNZ said it now expects to take longer to hit that rate with a slower pace of tightening now planned over 2023. However, the RBNZ was clear in reaffirming that it will continue with tightening this year in order to drive inflation down.AUD SuffersThe reaction in NZD was most pronounced against AUD with AUDZND plunging on the back of the meeting. AUD has been under pressure this week since the RBA meeting minutes despite the minutes revealing a more hawkish skew among members. Looking ahead, the pair looks vulnerable to further downside should today’s FOMC minutes provoke a fresh rally in USD, with AUD likely to bear the brunt of the move.Technical ViewsAUDNZDThe rally in AUDNZD off last year’s lows has been framed by a rising wedge pattern. With plenty of bearish divergence into recent highs, risks of a reversal lower are growing. Price is now testing below the structure and is currently probing support at 1.0954. If we break below here, there is open water down to 1.0750 next, in line with weakening momentum studies.

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Daily Market Outlook, February 22, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 22, 2023Stocks Suffer From PMI StrengthAsian Equities retreated overnight, following US markets lower. Growth and inflation expectations increased following a robust round of PMI data. PMI prints from western economies provided a more optimistic outlook for growth, however, the inflation read was more ambiguous with supply chain disruptions easing but service sector inflation remaining elevated. The data docket in the European session is scant today, investors will eye German IFO business survey which markets expect to deliver further signs of improving conditions. Yesterday’s Eurozone flash PMI rose to a nine-month high led by service sector activity, impressively the manufacturing read also signalled a return to growth, aided by indications of further reductions in supply chain constraints. Expect today’s headline IFO index to rise to 91.5 from 90.2, supported by incremental improvements in current conditions and expectations, this  would be a fifth consecutive uptick to the best levels since midsummer of 2022The Federal Market Open Committee will release the minutes of its February policy meeting this evening, the minutes, however, may now be a little stale given subsequent robust US data releases and predominantly hawkish rhetoric from policymakers. Nevertheless, these recent data releases reinforce the hawkish mantra that is likely to come out of the minutes that a policy ‘pivot’ remains a stretch target, as markets have repriced, believing the Fed will raise rates by a further 75bp by the summer and investors have abandoned the notion of rate cuts later this year..FX Options Expiration New York CutN/AOvernight News of NoteStock Futures Inch Higher As Investors Brace For Fed MinutesFed Minutes To Show Support Level For Larger Hikes, Higher PeakBiden Fed Vice Chair Search Set To Focus On Ex-Treasury OfficialsUS Plan To Impose New Sanctions On Russian Individuals, EntitiesUS House Panel Expected To Hold Hearing On Policy About ChinaChina Call Russia Ties ‘Solid As A Rock’ Amid Ukraine Peace PushBoJ Member Tamura Calls For Keeping Ultra-Easy Policy For NowJapan Benchmark Yield Tops Above 0.5% BoJ Cap In Second DayAustralia Wage Growth Weaker Than Expected As Rate Bets PareRBNZ Hikes 50Bps And Flags More To Come As Inflation Too HighPM Sunak Secures Backing Of Key Brexiters For NI Protocol DealGerman Business Morale Set For Fifth Consecutive ImprovementCoinbase See Quarterly Loss, Crypto Winter Hits Trading Volume(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4030Primary support is 3970Primary objective is 4384Below 3960 opens 389020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0850Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0860 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.22Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6910Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23600Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to Previous swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise to Previous swing high TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish as the current price is above Ichimoku cloud. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 1.35142 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is, and take profit at 1.37038 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci Line are.

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AUDUSD potential for bearish drop towards overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD potential for bearish drop towards overlap supportTypeBearish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Looking for price to drop from the pivot towards the overlap support.

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Market Spotlight: Walmart Shareholders Hoping For More Earnings Growth

Walmart In Focus TodayThe big focus for US stock traders today will be the release of Walmart’s Q4 earnings, coming just before the US open. The company’s performance always attracts plenty of attention given its status as an indicator of overall US economic health due to its size. One of the key themes we’ve heard from CEO’s over this earnings season has been the uncertainty and downside risks within the economic outlook for the year ahead. With inflation still at elevated levels and US rates having risen sharply last year, many retailers particularly have highlighted uncertainty in their guidance which is likely to be the message offered from Walmart also.Market ForecastsOn the numbers front, the market is looking for EPS of $1.51 on revenues of $159.72 billion. Both numbers will mark an uptick on the prior quarter if confirmed, marking a third straight quarter of earnings growth. Importantly, those figures would also mark a solid increase from the same period a year earlier, which should help drive Walmart shares higher near-term provided the forward guidance isn’t too pessimistic.Technical ViewsWalmartThe rally in Walmart shares off the 138.19 lows has seen the stock breaking above the bear channel from December highs. Price is now testing 146.21 which is a key level for the market. A break higher here will open the way for a test of the December highs around 154.30. Should price slip back from here, the next support to note is 138.19

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Market Spotlight: GBPJPY Breaking Out On UK Data Beat

Strong Services Sector Gains GBP has been on the rise today as traders digest the latest set of UK economic data. January PMIs saw the UK services sector bouncing back into growth territory last month with the index printing 53.3, up from the prior month’s 48.7 result and above the 49.1 the market was looking for. This marks the first time since July that the sector has been in growth territory after plunging over Q3 and Q4 2022. One particularly encouraging sign for the BOE was the PMI price index- used to determine expected future price inflation – was seen falling to its lowest level since April 2021.Manufacturing Rises Also Along with the increase in the services sector reading the manufacturing index also recorded an increase, jumping to 49.2 from 47 prior. While still in negative territory, the trajectory is encouraging and the reading was above the 47.5 the market was looking for.UK Econ Outlook ImprovingThe data reinforces the view that the UK economy is doing a little better than expected when measured against projections being made into the back end of last year. The BOE recently said that while it still expects a downturn this year, the dip will likely be milder than expected. Following the UK economy narrowly avoiding falling into recession in Q4, this initial January data is being taken as an encouraging sign that the worst of it is over and the economy is back on the up, helping lift GBP sentiment.Technical ViewsGBPJPYThe rally in GBPJPY off the Feb lows has seen the market breaking out above the 159.98 level and more recently the 162.08 level. The latest break marks a significant development and while above here the focus is on a further push higher and a test of next resistance at 164.56, with the bear channel highs around there also. Retail market heavily short and momentum studies bullish, supporting the move.

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The IndeX Files 21-02-2023

Equities Markets Weaker Ahead of FOMC Minutes TomorrowGlobal equities benchmarks have seen a timid start to the week with the four indices tracked here under pressure across early European trading on Tuesday. Yesterday saw quiet flows and limited action with US markets off line for President’s day and traders across the pond looking to tread carefully ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The US Dollar looks to be finding its feet again today after suffering a weaker start yesterday, which is also having a limiting effect on equities prices.The release of January PMI’s today in the Eurozone, US and UK will be the main focus for markets. Should US data surprise to the upside once again (strong recent trend of data beats), hawkish expectations are likely to build further ahead of the March FOMC, which will be bad news for equities near-term. In the UK and Eurozone, however, asset prices are likely to be a little more buoyant if today’s data confirms better business activity in January, diluting recession fears further.The main event for the week, however, will be tomorrow’s FOMC minutes for January. Given the recent strong of data beats and hawkish Fed commentary we’ve seen, the minutes might have lost a little relevance. However, USD bulls will be clinging onto any hawkish details they can find meaning that risks are skewed to the downside for equities prices this week with USD vulnerable to a fresh move higher.Technical ViewsDAXFor now, the DAX continues to hold within the top of the rising wedge formation, held up by support at the 15163.41 level and capped by resistance at 15642.76. With momentum studies having weakened recently, there are growing risks of a reversal lower with 14703.98 the next support to watch if current lows are broken.S&P 500The failure at the 4153.50 level has seen the market turning sharply lower, in line with falling momentum studies. Price is now fast approaching a test of the bull channel lows which, if broken, open the way for a test of 3910.00 next. Bulls will need to defend this level to prevent a fuller reversal lower.FTSEAfter breaking out to record highs last week, the FTSE is now softening a little from those highs. However, while within the bull channel and while 7904.7 holds as support, the outlook remains bullish. Should that level give, there is a bigger support level at 7678.8 which will be the key test of the market.NIKKEIThe market continues to stall around the 27422.9 level. Price has been caught up here over much of this year and, now just below the level, with momentum studies weakening the index looks vulnerable to a dip lower with 26407 the next support to note.

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USDJPY Potential for Bullish Rise to 23.6% Fibonacci Line

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Rise TypeBullish Rise Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish as the current price is crossing the Ichimoku Cloud. Looking for pullback buy entry at 131.622 where the overlap support is, and take profit is at 137.9 where the previous swing high is.

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Daily Market Outlook, February 21, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 21, 2023Asian Markets Marking Time, Waiting Lead From Wall StreetAsian equities are trading with a muted tone overnight as they lacked a lead from Wall Street given the NYSE was closed for US Presidents Day celebrations. The Nikkei and Shanghai Comp are rotating around the flatline for the session, while the Hang Seng is the standout underperformer shedding over 1.5% driven by regional tech losses. The subdued risk sentiment in Asian trade was compounded by the recent minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which confirmed that discussion at the most recent meeting was around the scale of a hike 25 or 50bps, with a pause not even on the table for negotiation, as the minutes confirmed the board were committed to further rate increases in the coming months, once again dashing dovish investors desiresEuropean bourses are set to open with a softer tone this morning ahead of flash PMI prints for the Uk, Germany and the Eurozone. Stateside investor focus will be firmly on FOMC minutes released later today, markets are currently pricing a higher terminal rate circa 5.3% for July with a 2023 rate curve remaining above 5%, as investors abandon hopes of rate cuts this year. With the US inflation backdrop remaining stubbornly sticky, combined with the robustness of the employment landscape it is likely the Fed minutes will confirm that the Open Market committee are poised to keep the pedal to the metal on the higher for longer rates mantra, certainly the recent price action in the Dollar cements this view the DXY has recovered its losses for the year so far and looks poised to challenge the pivotal 105 handle, weighing on global risk sentiment, with MSCI Index the broadest Asian-Pacific gauge sitting towards six week lows after retreating 3% so far in February.FX Options Expiration New York CutUSDJPY 133.50(300m)AUDUSD .6410(747m), .6730(743m)Overnight News of NoteUS Futures Fall, Try To Rebound From Third Weekly DeclinePutin To Update Russia’s Elite On Ukraine In Major SpeechChina Says 'Deeply Worried' On Escalation Of Ukraine WarChina Launch Private Equity Pilot To Boost Property SectorChina Busy Roads Show Economic Recovery Gathers PaceBoJ's Kuroda: Wages Set To Accelerate On Tight Job MarketJapan’s Factory Activity Falls At Fastest Pace In Over 2 YearsAustralia Considered 25 Or 50Bps Rate Hike, Minutes RevealUK PM Sunak Lobbies Tory MPs To Back Looming Brexit DealNI Brexit Deal Could Trigger Resignations, UK PM Sunak ToldGermany’s ZEW Investor Confidence Set To Continue HigherHSBC Profits Rocket As Rising Interest Rates Boost RevenueBHP Cuts Record Dividend As China Slowdown Dents Profits(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0850Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0860 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23600Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to resistanceTypeBullish BreakoutPreferenceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to rise from the pivot to ride the bullish momentum towards the resistance level.

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Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500. Nasdaq & DAX

Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500. Nasdaq & DAXTo access today's actionable analysis click here!

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Daily Market Outlook, February 20, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 20, 2023Asian Markets Recover After A Tepid Start To The Trading WeekAsian equities opened on the backfoot given a mixed handover from Wall Street as investors squared positions ahead of the Friday close and the US Presidents Day holiday today (with the NYSE closed today). Overnight geopolitical concerns were once again at the fore, with North Korea test firing an ICBM and multiple rocket launcher drills, this was coupled with lingering China-US tensions as China warned the US on escalating tensions regarding ‘ballon-gate’ the US countered with its own warnings regarding China providing pro Russian support in the Ukrainian war. The Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng were once again regional outperformers supported by continuing liquidity provisioning by the PB0C.Today’s data docket is very scant. Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to post its fourth monthly rise in a row, however, the increase is from record low levels. This is the first of several Eurozone surveys for February due this week all of which are expected to show that economic conditions in the region are showing nascent signs of improvement. UK January public finances data, due early Tuesday, will reveal self-assessment income tax returns for the year. Any indication from this that annual borrowing levels will come in below forecasts may lead to more calls for new policy measures in the March Budget. Down under in Australia the central bank will release minutes of its February policy meeting ealy Tuesday, after raising rates by 25bps at that meeting and pointed to the likelihood of further hikes, investors will parse the minutes for signs of further intentions to continue restrictive monetary policy in the first half of this year.Last week saw an extension of the rebound in market interest rate pricing in the US, this move commenced after the very robust employment report for January, when investors began to see markets actively reprice the terminal rate higher, with Fed officials rhetoric also confirming a sense that higher for longer remains the name of the game, last week's data pointed to a slower decline in inflation and better than expected manufacturing activity reinforced the belief of elevated rates persisting, this week the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core personal consumer expenditure deflator, will be released and may point to another rise of 0.4% month over month leaving the Fed adrift by 0.17% month over month from achieving levels that would return the US to it’s 2% inflation target.FX Options Expiration New York CutGBPUSD 1.1000(400m)Overnight News of NoteAsia Shares Hesitant Ahead Of Updates On Fed, BoJ PoliciesFed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Seen Running Hot This WeekUS Plans New Russia Export Controls, Key Industries SanctionsUS-China Meeting Only Worsens Tensions Over Balloon, RussiaWH To Hold Secret Talks With Taiwan Officials In WashingtonChinese Banks Hold Rates Steady, Analysts Bet Easing To ComeBoJ Viewers Flag Outside Risk Of March Surprise To Help UedaIran Nuclear Inspectors Find Uranium Enriched To 84% PurityNorth Korea Fires Barrage Of Ballistic Missiles As It Warns USECB’s Makhlouf Defends Runaway Economic Growth As ‘Real’UK PM Sunak Forced To ‘Pause’ Protocol Deal Amid BacklashMeta To Launch Subscription Service For Facebook, InstagramDeutsche Bank Criticised By Regulators Over Mis-Selling Probe(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100Primary support is 4005Primary objective is 4384Below 4000 opens 396520 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.0430Above 1.0820 opens 1.0920 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.2265Primary objective 1.1785Above 1.2265 opens 1.233720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134Primary support  is 131.85Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200Primary support 23500Primary objective is 26700Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-20-2023
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