Market Spotlight: Airbnb Earnings Up Next

Airbnb Reporting TodayAlong with January US CPI we also have two big US earnings reports due today with Coca Cola and Airbnb reporting Q4 results. Looking at the latter, shareholders are hoping for a seventh consecutive positive set of earnings results. Given that the market is looking for both EPS and revenues to have fallen from the prior quarter, you might argue that the bar is set relatively low for a strong result today which should help propel Airbnb shares higher.Bullish Expectations for AirbnbLooking at recent results in the travel sector, Q4 earnings have been mostly positive, bar the weakness in Expedia, suggesting that Airbnb stands to post some decent results today. The post-pandemic surge in travel and holidays is helping drive a rebound across the sector of which Airbnb is likely to have capitalised in Q4. Ideally, for bulls in the stock, today’s earnings would come in above forecasts while US CPI would undershoot, creating perfect conditions for a further rally. Still, regardless of US CPI, if today’s results show strength, Airbnb should be poised for a breakout in coming weeks and months.  Technical ViewsAirbnbThe rally in Airbnb shares off the 87.01 level has seen the market stalling yet again into a retest of the broken bullish trend line. However, the stock has found support ahead of the 103.67 level support and while this area holds, the focus is on a continuation higher and an eventual breakout above the 126.55 level.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-airbnb-earnings-up-next"
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Market Spotlight: Tesla & US Inflation

US Inflation in Focus TodayToday’s US inflation reading couldn’t have more meaning attached to it. We’ve seen a seismic shift in market sentiment on the back of the surprisingly strong US labour reports for January. With the NFP coming in almost 300% above forecasts alongside the unemployment rate dropping to its lowest levels since 1969, traders are grappling with the prospect of a resurgence in Fed hawkishness. The key takeaway from the report is that the US economy is holding up better than expected and therefore the Fed has more headroom to continue with rate hikes for longer or at higher levels.Market ScenariosToday’s inflation report will therefore be seen as either confirming this perspective or diluting it once again. If inflation is seen spiking higher last month, particularly if above forecasts, then hawkish pricing for the March FOMC is likely to increase, driving USD higher near-term while sending equities and commodities lower. Given that pricing for a larger .5% hike in March is currently only around 12%, an upside surprise today has the potential to drive a firm USD rally as pricing switches in favour of a larger hike.  However, if CPI undershoots forecasts today this should help curtail USD bullishness ahead of the meeting, creating room for stocks and commodities to push higher.Technical ViewsTeslaThe rally in Tesla shares has stalled for now into a test of the 207.71 area. If today’s US inflation data undershoots forecasts, this should see fresh upside in the stock with a break of 207.71 opening the way for a test of 255.61 next. However, if USD rallies on the back of a hot inflation reading today, the stock is likely to retest support at 170.22. This will be a key pivot for Tesla with bulls needing to defend the level to keep the bullish outlook alive.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-tesla-and-us-inflation"
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The IndeX Files 14-02-2023

Equities Firmer Ahead of US CPI Global equities benchmarks have seen a mostly positive start to the week ahead of today’s headline US inflation data. Markets came under pressure at the open yesterday as traders reacted to forecasts of an increase in monthly inflation, projected at 0.5% from -0.1% prior. However, annual inflation forecast to cool further to 6.2% from 6.5%, initial concerns were dampened down. On the back of the recent bumper US jobs report, however, and subsequent stream of hawkish Fed commentary, any surprise strength today will likely see a sharp unwinding of stock prices globally as traders look towards the March FOMC with increasingly hawkish expectations.The FTSE has been the best performer again this week so far with the index breaking out to fresh all-time highs yesterday. Weaker-than-forecast UK wage growth data today should help keep the index supported ahead of UK CPI tomorrow, supporting the view that inflation has likely cooled again and thus taking a little pressure off the BOE.In Europe, plunging gas prices are being welcomed by businesses and consumers alike, helping support economic sentiment there. Traders are already beginning to look ahead to a potential ECB pivot on the back of the March meeting which should help keep asset prices underpinned while that narrative remains in place.Technical ViewsDAXThe rally in the DAX, framed by the rising wedge formation off last year’s lows, has stalled for now into a test of the 15642.76 level. While 15163.41 holds, however, the focus remains on a continuation lower. However, bearish divergence in momentum studies is worth noting and any break of the current support and rising wedge lows will open the way for a move down to 14703.98 next.S&P 500The rally in the S&P, framed by the bull channel off last year’s lows, has stalled for now into a test of the 4153.50 level. This area has held as resistance since later 2022 and with momentum studies weakening, risks of a drop back down towards 3910 are seen unless bulls can quickly breach the level, putting focus back on 4305 next.FTSEThe index continues to break new ground this week with price breaking out above the prior highs at 7904.7. We are seeing bearish divergence into these highs though while above the 7678.8 level the focus is on a continuation higher, in line with the bull channel.NIKKEIFor now, the index continues to hold around the 27422.9 level just ahead of the intersection between the bearish trend line from highs and the retest of the broke bull trend line. While this area holds as resistance, a correction lower cannot be ruled out.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-14-02-2023"
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NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias is bearish as there is a key resistance level. Looking for a sell entry at 0.63642, take profit at 0.62732 which is the recent swing low.

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CHFJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistance

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleCHFJPY Potential for bullish rise towards overlap resistanceTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CHFJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Expecting price to possibly retest the pivot before heading towards the overlap resistance.It's worthy to note that there is an intermediate resistance level where the previous swing high is. Price might struggle to break through that.

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Market Spotlight: Kape Shares Soar on Takeover Bid News

Kape Higher on MondayShares in Kape Technologies are trading sharply today as the stock gapped higher at the London open on news of a takeover bid. Majority shareholder Unikmind Holdings has reportedly offered $1.51 billion to purchase all remaining shares in the company ($3.44 per share). Unikmind, owned by Teddy Sagi, is unable to purchase further shares in Kape until March 31st or the release of full-year 2022 results. However, Kape is pushing for Unikmind to be released from the agreement so that the offer can be put to shareholders.Correction Offers Buying OpportunityKape shares are currently down around 35% from their all-time highs, falling as part of the broader sell off in tech over the last year. However, with sentiment quickly shifting back towards bullishness, Unikmind are looking to benefit from the projected rally by taking over Kape. The digital security software provider has seen a strong shift in performance over recent years moving out of net annual losses into profitability and as such the recent decline likely looks like an attractive discount to buy at for Unikmind. Notably, Unikmind (which owns roughly 55%) is seeking a delisting of Kape from AIM regardless of whether the offer is accepted.Technical ViewsKAPEFollowing the failure and subsequent reversal from the 309 level, Kape shares have since rebounded are now trading back up towards the level. This is a key near-term pivot for the stock. With momentum studies turning bullish, a break of current highs will open the way for a move higher towards the 373.5 level thereafter.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-kape-shares-soar-on-takeover-bid-news"
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Daily Market Outlook, February 13, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 13, 2023A Cautious Start To Trading Ahead of Inflation DataAsian equities are mixed this morning ahead of tomorrow’s key US inflation print, with investors hoping that the trend in retreating inflationary pressures persists, however, Friday’s reports of revisions to past CPI data and elevated consumer inflation expectations have investors nervous regarding a potential upside surprise to tomorrow’s number, a hotter number tomorrow would likely spark another rapid repricing in interest rate yields and a markdown for global equities. Geo-politics risk also remains on the radar, with the US shooting down a fourth flying object believed to have potential surveillance capabilities, China has now indicated its intention to carry out a similar termination of an object in its airspace, stating that US surveillance balloons have trespassed into Chinese airspace over 10 times since January 2022. Overnight the Japanese Government is believed to confirm to the Diet that Kazuo Ueda is the nominee to become the new Bank of Japan Governor. Markets  reacted on Friday to chatter regarding his nomination, which initially led to a jump in the yen on concerns that it may mean a move to more restrictive monetary policy. The yen retreated after Ueda commented that he did not plan an immediate change in policy but markets will be alert for further details on his policy views. Japanese GDP for Q4 will also be released overnight and is expected to show a rebound from Q3’s decline.FX Options Expiration New York CutEURUSD 1.09(842mln), 1.10(337mln)USDJPY 126.50(700mln), 127.60(426mln)Overnight News of NoteAsian Equities Tumble And US Futures Slide After Wall Street SlumpDollar Hangs Near 5-Week High As Inflation Data Looms; Yen SlipsAs Funding Costs Surge, China Set To Pump Extra Cash Into Money MarketJapan’s LDP Policy Head Says Monetary Policy Has Room For ReformAustralian Tsy: RBA Review To Scrutinise Communications On RatesECB’s Visco: ECB Must Avoid Unnecessary Rise In Real Interest RatesChancellor Scholz’s Party Loses Berlin Election For First Time Since 1999UK Firms Plan Biggest Pay Rises Since 2012 To Fill Staff GapsAnalysts Say Credit Markets Are Poised For A Gut Check After 10% RallyCrypto Firm Paxos Faces SEC Lawsuit Over Binance USD TokenOil Edges Lower As Slowdown Concerns Vie With Russian CutbackOPEC Expects Global Oil Demand To Cross Pre-Pandemic Levels In 2023Meta Delays Setting Team Budgets As It Plans Fresh Round Of Job Cuts(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4040Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 4040 opens 400020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0810Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.06Below 1.0580 opens 1.050020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.21Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2165 opens 1.226020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary support  is 130Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 21500Primary support 21200Primary objective is 25000Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

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Gold Undergoing a Correction; S&P 500 Might Jump Soon

Gold has managed to form a bearish flag and approach the resistance at the level of 1820.00. The asset might potentially pull from this level and jump. Currently, gold is undergoing a mere correction. So, it would be wise to follow the candlestick formations to understand what might happen next.American stock index S&P 500 got back to the broken downtrend and local uptrend. It has formed a hammer at the end of last Friday. This might signify a potential price growth towards the level of 4200. So, let’s observe what the index is about to do next.The currency pair EUR/USD is undergoing correction. It might gain the required support at the level of 1.0350 soon. Also, this level is located next to the broken downtrend. So, it is likely that this currency pair will head up soon.

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USDCAD Potential for Bullish Rise to recent swing high

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleUSDCAD, H4 | Potential for Bullish Rise to recent swing high TypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDCAD is slightly bullish as there is a key support level, Looking for a buy entry at 1.33408 where below the overlap support. We are looking to take profit at 1.34706 which is the overlap recent swing high.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-potential-for-bullish-rise-to-recent-swing-high"
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S&P500 potential for bearish drop towards intermediate support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleS&P500 potential for bearish drop towards intermediate supportTypeBearish DropPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for S&P500 is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Looking for an immediate entry at the pivot. The resistance is where the overlap resistance level is. The support is the intermediate support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p500-potential-for-bearish-drop-towards-intermediate-support"
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USDJPY potential for bullish rise towards overlap support

TitleUSDJPY potential for bullish rise towards overlap supportTypeBullish BouncePreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for USDJPY is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap support. Expecting price to continue bullish towards the overlap resistance levelIt's worthy to note that there is an intermediate resistance level where the previous swing high is. Price could reverse back down from that area.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-potential-for-bullish-rise-towards-overlap-support"
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Market Spotlight: UK Avoids Recession By Thinnest of Margins

UK Economy On the EdgeThe latest UK economic data today suggests that the recent optimism we’ve seen might be a little pre-mature. Preliminary quarterly GDP was seen at 0% in Q4, just above the -0.3% seen over the prior quarter. Had the result been negative today, the UK would have been in a technical recession. However, instead, the UK has avoided that situation by the thinnest of margins. For many, this will be a hollow victory and reflects the difficulties facing the UK economy very well. On the monthly reading, UK GDP was seen suffering a sharp 0.5% drop, below the 0.3% decline the market was looking for.Recession Risks Still ThereThe BOE has recently warned that the UK stull faces a recession this year, though did say that the downturn would likely not be as pronounced as previously thought. With interest rates at 14-year highs and with inflation still at excessive levels, financial conditions for businesses and consumers in the UK are the worst they’ve been for a generation. However, with the FTSE climbing to fresh record highs this week it’s clear that many players anticipate better times ahead. The fear is that if the BOE pauses hikes at current levels that inflation might rebound near-term, creating further difficulties for the bank.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe pair currently oscillating around the 1.2195 level, contained within a triangle pattern which has framed the recent consolidation. On the back of the recent uptrend, the focus is on a further push higher and an eventual test of the 1.2659 level next if bulls can get back above 1.2195. Below here, and with momentum studies bearish, risks are skewed towards a break lower and a test of 1.1474 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-uk-avoids-recession-by-thinnest-of-margins"
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Daily Market Outlook, February 10, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, February 10, 2023Valentines Day Pick For BoJ Chief Could Prove To Be A Heartbreaker For Yen BearsAsian equities are mostly lower overnight as declines in US equities persisted following reports suggesting Fed comments that US interest rates have further to rise. Chinese inflation data for January was mixed as annual producer price inflation fell to -0.8% in January but consumer price inflation rose to 2.1% from 1.8% in December. The Japanese government has confirmed that it will announce its nominee for the next Bank of Japan Governor on 14th February, market chatter that the BoJ pick is believed to be the more hawkish ex board member Ueda after the favourite for the nomination refused to accept the role, has led to strengthening in the Yen overnight.In the US, consumer confidence has been rebounding after huge declines witnessed last year. The retreat in gas prices stateside has helped buffer sentiment, however today’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, is thought to show another round of softness. The latest sentiment on inflationary expectations will also be eyed with the recent rebound in gas prices a concern.FX Options Expiration New York CutEURGBP .8800(425mln) .9390(580mln)Overnight News of NoteAsia Stocks Head For Second Weekly Loss As Fed Rate Worries FlareJapan Govt To Present Next BoJ Governor Nominee On Feb 14RBA Raises Inflation, Wages Forecasts, Sees Further Rate HikesChina Factory Deflation Deepens, Consumer Prices Rise In JanuaryJapan's Wholesale Inflation Stays Elevated, Keeps BoJ Under PressureBoJ Kuroda: Will Keep Easing As Long As Needed For Price GoalBoJs Amamiya: See No Need Now To Make YCC More FlexibleJapan’s Suzuki: Must Discuss Joint Accord With New BoJ GovernorFed's Foot 'Unequivocally' On Brake, Sensible To Move Slower, Barkin SaysBank Of England Officials Split Over Future Path For RatesDollar Defensive As Investors Remain Cautious Ahead Of Inflation DataTreasury Yield-Curve Inversion Reaches Deepest Level Since 1980sPBoC 3-Day Cash Injection Hits 1 Trillion Yuan To Ease SqueezeBoJ To Offer 5yr Loans To Banks On Feb. 14 To Help Cap YieldsOil Trims Weekly Gain As Slowdown Concerns Counter China DemandGoldman Cuts Oil Forecasts On Softer 2023 Demand-Supply BalancePayPal Says Volume Growth Slowed; CEO Schulman To Retire(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4050Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 4040 opens 400020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0810Primary resistance is 1.0950Primary objective is 1.06Below 1.0580 opens 1.050020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary resistance  is 1.21Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2165 opens 1.226020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131Primary support  is 130Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 21500Primary support 21200Primary objective is 25000Below 20300 opens 1950020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-10-2023"
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FOMO Friday: S&P Flies Too Close To the Sun

S&P Slips From HighsIt’s fair to say that it’s been a relatively quiet week across markets. We’ve seen decent volatility, just little in the way of clear directional moves. Much of what has gone up, subsequently came down and vice versa. Weeks like this, however, are a good time to reflect on one’s trading and plan ahead as the big moves and key catalysts are never far away. Still, there has been plenty happening this week and chatting with traders ahead of the weekend it seems the big move capturing most attention is the almost 3% pullback in the S&P. So, let’s take a look at what cause the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week!What Caused the Move?Shifting USD View on Better US DataThe main driver behind the drop in the S&P this week has been the change in USD outlook on the back of recent US data and Fed commentary. Last week’s December US labour market data showed the NFP coming in almost 3x higher than forecasts while the unemployment rate was seen falling back to levels last seen in 1969. On the back of this surprisingly strong data traders feared the Fed might look to press ahead with rates hikes for longer than originally expected given that the anticipated downside impact on the economy has clearly not been as harsh as thought.Hawkish Fed CommentsWith USD rallying firmly across the board, US markets came off rather sharply. This week, then, focus shifted to a slew of Fed commentary over the week, kicking off with chairman Powell on Tuesday. While Powell’s speech was more or less a repetition of his comments at the FOMC it was subsequent comments from other Fed members which caused concern for equities traders. Fed’s Williams and Kashkari both called on the Fed to continue with hiking throughout this year with Williams saying that rates would need to stay at higher levels for years, beyond the Fed’s current projections, and Kashkari calling for rates to peak around 5.4% at least, above the Fed’s own projections again.Downside Risks for S&PThese comments represented a clear hawkish uptick on the back of last week’s data and raised fears that other Fed members might be feeling the same way, putting larger hikes (or hiking for longer) back on the table. Looking ahead then, the outlook for the S&P will be very tied to incoming US data and Fed commentary as traders look to gauge how the Fed is likely to proceed this year. Further strong data might therefore weigh on S&P, boosting hawkish Fed expectations.Technical ViewsS&PThe rally off last year’s lows has seen the index testing above the 4153.50 level though the move has stalled for now and since reversed back under the level. With momentum studies weakening, while below here, there are risks of a deeper move back towards the bull channel lows and 3910 below. Back above, focus shifts to the 4305 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-s-and-p-flies-too-close-to-the-sun"
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AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop to recent swing low

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential for bearish drop to recent swing low TypeBearis Preference:My overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish as there is a descending trend line. Looking ofr buy entry at 0.701, take profit at 0.68705 which is an overlap support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-recent-swing-low"
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ETHUSD potential for bearish drop to overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleETHUSD potential for bearish drop to overlap supportTypeBearish ReversalPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.Looking for price to retest the pivot which is the overlap resistance. Expect price to then drop towards the overlap support.The resistance is here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-potential-for-bearish-drop-to-overlap-support"
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Gold potential for bearish drop towards overlap support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleGold potential for bearish drop towards overlap supportTypeBearish DropPreference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for Gold is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.With price breaking the ascending channel, expect price to drop from the pivot towards the overlap support.The resistance is here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-potential-for-bearish-drop-towards-overlap-support"
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Fed speakers maintain hawkish rhetoric capping USD downside

Newly minted dollar bulls after the NFP report did not hear anything encouraging from Powell on Tuesday, but other Fed representatives tried to meet market’s request for hawkish comments. Four Fed officials, who are at different positions on the spectrum of hawks and doves, have indicated that it is necessary to raise rates above 5%, or reiterated the idea to hold interest rate at restrictive level for longer. All this made it difficult for investors to quickly recover their risk appetite and helped the dollar to find some ground. Futures for European and US indices trade in positive territory today, and currencies, rising on expectations of global economic expansion, showed good growth. This may indicate that the markets see the current moment as the peak of the Fed's hawkish communication and are now looking for opportunities to re-enter US dollar pro-cyclical shorts at more attractive levels.However, there is still scope for the US dollar to absorb further hawkish repricing of rate expectations, and a recovery in high-beta currencies may be premature. Markets are pricing the Fed's peak rate at 5.13%, so it still doesn't fully account for another hike after March. The pricing of Fed rate path implies about 50 basis points of easing in the second half of the year, reflecting both disinflationary and recessionary risks in the US. Perhaps the aim of the Fed's hawkish speakers at this stage is to reassure the markets that rates can rise to at least 5.25% and that rate cut speculation is out of place.It's fair to expect that more confirmation from incoming economic data will be needed to convince markets of another 25 bps gain after March. Jobless claims are somewhat disappointing today (196K vs. 190K forecast), tomorrow's University of Michigan sentiment index is probably the only important report ahead of the weekend. A calmer trading environment could return after the morning's risk appetite and last until the main US inflation report on Tuesday. In the foreign exchange market, it seems that it is still too early for the dollar to return to a stable downward trend: instead, country factors and risks may become the focus of attention.The data on inflation in Germany, published this morning, surprised on the downside. The overall consumer price index rose 8.7% year on year, lower than the forecasted 8.9%. This is likely to test the ability of the European Central Bank to continue to resist the bullish reaction in bond market after last week's ECB meeting. The EUR/USD pair may struggle to break above 1.08 level for now.Elsewhere in Europe, the focus will be on the comments of BoE Governor Andrew Bailey when he testifies before Parliament. As in the Eurozone, we have seen a lot of hawkish commentary in the UK since last week's Bank of England interest rate decision, and markets are likely to expect any political commentary today to be hawkish as well. The weakness of the euro confirms the recent fall of the EUR/GBP pair, and the level of 0.8800 may be tested in the near future.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fed-speakers-maintain-hawkish-rhetoric-capping-usd-downside"
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Market Spotlight: Amazon Shares Fall Back Below Key Level

Amazon Falls BackAfter rallying more than 30% over recent months, Amazon shares have fallen back in recent days following a mixed set of Q4 earnings. While revenues were seen higher over the quarter, at $149.2 billion vs $145.7 billion expected, EPS came in below expectations at $0.03 vs $0.17 expected. The company noted a mild lift in advertising spending over the quarter, though this was offset by weaker web services revenues. However, it wasn’t necessarily the weaker earnings that wobbled investor sentiment but a softer set of guidance for Q1. Looking ahead, Amazon forecast Q1 revenues in the $121 billion - $126 billion region, a little light of Wall Street’s $125 billion estimates.Cutting CostsSales in stores were down by 2% year on year with Amazon citing higher inflation (higher consumer prices, higher energy and transport costs) as the key downside factor here. Last month, the company noted it will cut around 18000 jobs globally in a bid to cut costs, this follows previous cuts in November along with a freeze on new hiring as the company seeks to address its balance sheet.Fed ImpactAmazon shares have also come under pressure this week amidst a pullback in US stocks generally in response to hawkish Fed commentary. Bumper December jobs data in the US has potentially opened the door to a longer course of Fed tightening which is causing some downside, especially for tech stocks near-term.Technical ViewsAmazonThe rally off last year’s lows saw price breaking out above the 103.36 level. However, the move has since reversed with price trading back below the level for now. Near-term, this is a key pivot price for the stock with bulls needing to see a quick move back above the level to keep the focus on 123.79. Below here, there are risks of a move down to 84.28 especially with momentum studies weakening.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-amazon-shares-fall-back-below-key-level"
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Market Spotlight: AZN Shares Soar on Bumper Profits

Shares Surge on Earnings ReleaseShares in UK drugmaker Astra Zeneca, famous for its covid vaccine, are surging higher today in response to the group’s latest earnings report. While Q4 revenues were a little below forecasts at $930.5 billion vs $934 billion expected, the group’s full year 2022 results were solid with profits soaring to $3.2 billion from the prior year’s $112 million. Revenues for the full year jumped to $44.35 billion, up from $37.42 billion. Additionally, EPS for FY 2022 soared to $2.11 from $0.08 a year prior.Strong Sales Outside of Covid VaccineThe group attributed its bumper profits, not just to continued sales of its covid vaccine but also a spike in sales for leading diabetes and cancer drugs. Looking ahead, the groups forecasts further sales growth in 2023 with EPS forecast to rise by a high single digit to low double digit percentage. Additionally, the company has cited the reopening of the Chinese economy as a strong encouraging factor for the 2023 outlook with demand expected to increase in coming months and quarters as the post-pandemic recovery continues.Technical ViewsAstra ZenecaThe recent correction lower stalled on approach to the bull channel lows with strong buying taking price back up to challenge the 11342 area resistance. This is a key level for the stock and bulls need to see a convincing breach here to encourage fresh buying. Momentum studies have flipped bullish here supporting the rally with the bull channel top the next target above current resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-azn-shares-soar-on-bumper-profits"
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