The market awaits news of Jerome Powell and the OPEC+ meeting

For yet another week, the markets are still awaiting the evolution of the yields on US bonds and the problems it may bring to the markets, as we see falls in US indices namely the falls in the Nasdaq, due to the fact that the increase in the cost of financing hurts technology companies due to their structure and growth profile, affecting corporate profits.

A few days ago, Fed chairman Powell spoke in front of Congress in an attempt to lessen the fears of inflation, and today, the market will once again be waiting for his statements regarding the possible measures taken in response to the yield curve. 

The OPEC+ meeting is another catalyst for today since the market is awaiting the possibility of a decision on whether to reduce production or maintain the current measures until next April.

An increase in oil production could lower the price in the short term, but if it is decided to maintain the current production rate, the price could be supported.

Analysis of the NQ100

The short-term falls on the Nasdaq have confirmed a breakdown of the bullish channel that it had been following in recent months, after breaking its average of 200 (in red) and the bearish cross of its short and medium-term moving averages (black and orange)

In addition, this movement was supported by strong growth in the negative territory of the MACD after the break of the channel, despite the accumulated overselling in the stochastic indicator, which led to the price to look for its 100% fibonacci retracement level of the last bullish momentum in the lower band of the channel.

In recent days, the price has bounced twice at the 100% fibonacci level, but finally, after a last bearish rebound in its 200-session average in the zone coinciding with the 61.8% fibonacci level, the price has achieved breaking down this important level, thus heading to its current support level that previously acted as resistance in the lower red band.

It is very important to see if the price is able to maintain this level of support, as a break down from this could increase the dips to the 161.8% fibonacci level.

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5. H4 chart of the NQ100. Data range: from September 29, 2020 to March 4, 2021. Prepared on March 4, 2021 at 1:00 p.m. CET. Keep in mind that past returns do not guarantee future returns.

Price evolution in the last 5 years:

• 2020: 43.64%
• 2019: 35.23%
• 2018: -3.88%
• 2017: 28.24%
• 2016: 7.50%

With the Admiral Markets Trade.MT5 account, you can trade Contracts for Differences (CFDs) of the NQ100 and more than 3000 stocks! CFDs allow traders to try to profit from the bull and bear markets, as well as the use of leverage. Click on the following banner to open an account today:

INFORMATION ABOUT ANALYTICAL MATERIALS:

The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admiral Markets investment firms operating under the Admiral Markets trademark (hereinafter “Admiral Markets”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1. This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
3. With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
4. The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Roberto Rojas (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.
5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
6. Any kind of past or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
7. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

from Trader`s Blog https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/markets-pending-powell-opec
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After Monday’s good data, the service sector PMIs also give hope to the economy

Last February, we talked about good data from Germany in relation to last year's German GDP, and good data in relation to the German investor confidence for the next six months, March has begun with positive news regarding the macroeconomic factors.

On Monday we learned of positive data regarding the manufacturing PMIs in both Europe and the United States, and today we have also seen positive results in the service sector PMIs.

Manufacturing PMIs provides information on the economic activity within the manufacturing sector, where a result above 50 indicates expansion and growth of this industry. On the contrary, a figure below 50 is considered negative, meaning the economy in this sector is contracting.

Specifically, the manufacturing PMIs exceeded both market expectations and the data of the previous month for Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Italy was the only negative in this dataset, with a result slightly lower than expected by the market consensus, although higher than the previous month's data.

For its part, the service sector PMIs measures economic activity through purchases. As in the manufacturing PMI, a reading above 50 is considered positive suggesting good future prospects, while a reading below 50 is considered negative.

This data has been positive in Spain, Italy, France and in the eurozone as a whole, although Germany’s results were not only lower than expected by the market consensus, but it has also been worse than the previous data. The UK also performed slightly worse than expected, and data from the US will be released this afternoon.

Despite these good results, the Euro is currently down slightly more than 0.10% against the US dollar, leaving for the moment the monthly variation practically flat.

Technically speaking, if we look at the H4 chart in the EUR/USD, we can see how in recent weeks the trend has been downward after marking annual highs on January 6 at 1.23492 until losing the level of 1.20, marking lows on February 5 at 1.19521. From that moment, this pair moved within a bullish channel until its break on February 26, which led it to bounce back at the 1.20 level to make a pullback to the lower band of the channel.

After this last movement, it is important to observe if the price is able to recover this level and exceed its average of 200 in red in order to resume the uptrend or if, on the contrary, it bounces down, seeking again the annual minimums.

Source: H4 chart of EURUSD from Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5 platform from December 10, 2020 to March 3, 2021. Taken on March 3 at 12:15 CET. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

 Price evolution of the last 5 years:

• 2020 = + 8.93%
• 2019 = -2.21%
• 2018 = -4.47%
• 2017 = + 14.09%
• 2016 = -3.21%

With the Admiral Markets Trade.MT5 account, you can trade Contracts for Differences (CFDs) of the AUR/USD and more than 3000 stocks! CFDs allow traders to try to profit from the bull and bear markets, as well as the use of leverage. Click on the following banner to open an account today:

INFORMATION ABOUT ANALYTICAL MATERIALS:

The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admiral Markets investment firms operating under the Admiral Markets trademark (hereinafter “Admiral Markets”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1. This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
3. With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
4. The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Roberto Rojas (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.
5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
6. Any kind of past or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
7. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

from Trader`s Blog https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/service-pmi-data
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Market Update – March 3 – Cautious ahead of Powell and OPEC

Trading was consolidative and quiet Tuesday as the markets took stock of recent activity. A lack of fresh catalysts also limited action. There was some jostling in stocks late after Texas announce it is opening up the state economy 100% and removing the mask mandate. US Government suggested that vaccinations could be rolled out quicker than initially expected and after Fed’s Brainard indicated that volatility in bond markets could further delay the turnaround on asset purchases. Stock markets moved broadly higher, leaving JPN225 and ASX up 0.5% and 0.8% at the close, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently posting gains of 2.2% and 1.6% respectively. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, US futures are also broadly higher, with a 0.8% rise in the USA100 leading the way. Vaccine optimism and the push back from central bankers against the rise in yields has helped to stabilise sentiment and ease concern over cliff edge scenarios on growth.

Optimism on the outlook remains very supportive, especially with more vaccines on the way and another big stimulus injection on the horizon. Recent data are supporting that point of view with many revising up Q1 and 2021 growth projections. Treasuries have stabilized too which has helped calm jitters regarding the bearish impacts on stocks from rising rates, and over worries inflation pressures will pick up and cause the FOMC to pullback accommodation sooner than expected.

Forex Market

EUR – close to its 20-day moving average at 1.2085
GBP – ranging between at 1.3850-1.4000.
JPY –  at 106.86, retesting 107.00 for a 3rd day in a row.
AUD – reversed nearly 40% of last week’s dip.
CAD – down to 1.2616 from 1.2730.
GOLD – declines further below 50-day EMA, and 8-month Support.
USOil – edged up to $60.10 per barrel, amid growing conviction that the OPEC+ alliance is poised to agree an increase in output this week.

Today: Calendar includes final readings for Eurozone and UK services PMIs for February, which are expected to confirm levels in contraction territory as the sector remains depressed by virus measures. UK Chancellor Sunak will present his budget proposal today, with reports already out indicating that furlough measures will be extended until September, although the Chancellor also seems eager to find ways to finance crisis measures. Also on tab are the ISM Service for February for US along with ADP employment data.

Biggest mover – GBPJPY (+0.37% as of 09:30 GMT)

Click here to access the our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Video conferencing darling Zoom presents its results from the year of the pandemic

It’s been almost a year since the beginning of the pandemic. As we mentioned yesterday, the tourism sector has been one of the great victims, while one of the big winners, alongside e-commerce, has been the popular communications and video chat company Zoom Video Communications.

This platform has grown exponentially as many companies transition their employees into a remote work policy in order to avoid contagion, and this platform became popular among the general public as a tool for communication while home.

During yesterday's trading day, the company based in San José in California, announced its results for 2020, highlighting an increase in income of 326%, and improving its prospects for 2021.

Specifically, Zoom reported earnings per share of $1.22 on earnings of $882.49 billion versus expected earnings of $0.7913 per share on earnings of $ 811 billion expected by market consensus, so these results were clearly very positive.

These results were announced after the close of the markets, causing today's pre-opening to anticipate a rise of 8%, adding to the increases of more than 9% of the day yesterday.

Technically speaking, if we look at the daily chart, we can see that since March 1, 2020 the price has experienced a sharp rise from the level close to $ 100 per share where it was at that time until reaching its historical maximum of $588.66 per share on October 19.

From that moment, the price began to correct that has led it to face its 200-session moving average, falling back to the zone of $ 325 per share with a fall of more than $ 260 per share.

Currently, the price is trading close to $410 per share, struggling to recover and maintain its 18 session average. Following these good results, the price could face its medium-term downtrend line in red. Overcoming this level could open the doors to a new bullish rally, although the price should face up to 4 levels of resistance to try to reach its all-time highs.

As long as the price does not break down to its 200-session moving average and the previous low zone represented by the red band, the feeling will continue to be bullish, otherwise, the loss of these levels could cause an even greater correction.

Source: Daily Zoom chart of the Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5 platform from November 4, 2019 to March 2, 2021. Taken on March 2 at 12:00 CET. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

 Price evolution of the last 2 years:

• 2020: 395.77%
• 2019: -6.11%

With the Admiral Markets Trade.MT5 account, you can trade Contracts for Differences (CFDs) of Zoom and more than 3000 stocks! CFDs allow traders to try to profit from the bull and bear markets, as well as the use of leverage. Click on the following banner to open an account today:

INFORMATION ABOUT ANALYTICAL MATERIALS:

The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admiral Markets investment firms operating under the Admiral Markets trademark (hereinafter “Admiral Markets”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1. This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
3. With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
4. The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Roberto Rojas (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.
5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
6. Any kind of past or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
7. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

from Trader`s Blog https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/zoom-positive-results
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