NASDAQ 100 E-mini , H4 Potential Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 14619 Pivot: 14379 Support: 13133Preferred Case:On the H4, with price currently moving within the Ichimoku cloud , we have a bias that price will drop to our support at 13133 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection from our pivot at 14379 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance. Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot and head for 1st resistance at 14619 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance.Fundamentals: With the removal of Russia from the swift banking system, it is unsure what ramifications US economy will face with increase sanctions against one of the major economies in the world. With increase pressure, NASDAQ may continue its downwards spiral.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nasdaq-100-e-mini-h4-potential-bearish-drop"
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, February 28, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, February 28, 2022 Overnight Headlines EU, UK, Canada, US Plan To Cut Some Russian Banks From SWIFT Russia, Ukraine Agree To Talks; Putin Puts Nuclear Forces On Alert EU Chief Von Der Leyen: The Bloc Wants Ukraine As Member Japan’s Jan Output Falls As Supply Snags Add To Contraction Risk Australia Retail Sales Rebound In Jan As Economy Weathers Omicron NZ PM Ardern: No More Self-Isolation For Vaxxed Travellers From Mar 3 RBNZ: We Have More Work To Do On Rates, Too Early To Tell On Russia UK Business Conf 5Mth High On Trading Prospects, Economic Optimism Rouble, Euro Plunge After West Steps Up Sanctions; Dollar, Yen Gain Treasury Yields Slide As Ukraine Risks Turbocharge Haven Demand Oil Jumps As Traders Fear Disruption In Russia’s Energy Industry Saudi Crown Prince: Still Committed To OPEC+ Oil Agreement With Russia Asian Shares, US Futures Fall As Ukraine Conflict DeepensThe Day Ahead The escalating Russian offensive in Ukraine saw a fresh wave of penalties being imposed on Russia over the weekend, including banning some of its banks from the international payment system, SWIFT, while sanctions have also been placed on the Russian central bank. Risk sentiment has started the week on a soft note, with equity futures across western markets trading lower, albeit stocks across the Asia-Pacific region are mostly up at least modestly. A short while ago, the Bank of Russia hiked interest rates from 9.5% to 20% before trading in the ruble was due to begin and banned foreigners from selling securities locally. However, the currency still fell by around 8% on the open. Overnight, latest Lloyds Business Barometer report was released in the UK, which showed business confidence move up to a five-month high of 44 (previous: 39) reflecting strong trading prospects and optimism about the economy. Trading prospects for the year ahead climbed to the highest level since the start of the pandemic, while there was also a rise in economic optimism which reversed some of the small falls seen in recent months. The survey captured responses between 1st and 15th February, notably before the removal of various Covid restrictions across the UK’s nations, but also ahead of the latest escalation in the situation in the Ukraine. Current developments in Ukraine add to central banks’ current difficulties in framing policy. On the one hand the rise in energy prices and potential disruption of Ukrainian food exports are likely to push inflation even higher, strengthening the case for monetary policy tightening. However, the crisis may also pose a further downside risk for economic growth. The Bank of England, US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank all have monetary policy updates in March which, prior to this week, few central bankers have been prepared to comment on this although one ECB official has said that the Ukrainian situation may delay stimulus exit. Later today, the ECB’s Panetta is due to make a speech during a debate on the euro area and monetary policy outlook, while in the US, the Fed’s Bostic is due to take part in a discussion about the economy. Both of these will be watched closely for signs that either central bank might be changing direction in light of recent events. Data wise, today’s calendar is limited to the Spain CPI release for February, which is expected to post a sharp acceleration in inflation, while in the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is expected to have picked up this month.CFTC Data IMM positioning and sentiment data continue to reflect a broader reining back of bullish USD sentiment, with the aggregate USD long position, reflected in exposures across the major currencies we monitor, falling for a seventh consecutive week. The bullish bet on the USD was cut by USD1bn in the data through Tuesday, mainly reflecting a more positive perspective among speculators on the EUR. Net EUR longs jumped USD1.6bn this week, the biggest increase since mid-January. Net EUR longs among non-commercial accounts have now regained levels last seen in July last year. But the more constructive sentiment on the EUR clearly reflects a reduction in gross EUR shorts—investors are less bearish on the EUR—rather than a rebuild of gross longs which have been trending steady to slightly lower in the past few weeks. EUR short covering has picked up since early Feb, suggesting that the potential for the ECB to move away from negative interest rates is the main motivator for this development. Markets remain skeptical that the ECB will adjust policy significantly, or at all later this year, with developments in Ukraine liable to slow growth. Elsewhere, investors trimmed net JPY and AUD shorts modestly (by USD290mn and USD130mn respectively), while net CAD longs were pared back a little (USD232mn), offsetting flows against the USD to some extent. Net GBP positioning tilted more bearish this week but risk here continues to pivot narrowly around neutral. Net MXN longs more or less doubled in the week to a still very modest USD414mn in total while net CHF shorts increased slightly (178mn). Net NZD shorts increased by an even smaller extent (158mn). Sentiment on these currencies remains neutral.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.1070-80 (730M), 1.1130-35 (605M), 1.1160 (575M) 1.1190-1.1200 (665M), 1.1240-50 (1.4B), 1.1300-10 (695M) 1.1345-55 (1.3B), 1.1380-90 (730M), 1.1400-10 (1.8B) GBP/USD: 1.3225 (395M), 1.3265 (390M). EUR/GBP: 0.8325 (325M), 0.8350 (255M), 0.8450 (440M) USD/JPY: 114.00-10 (840M), 115.10 (460M), 115.40 (1.0B) EUR/JPY: 129.50 (795M), 131.75 (1.1B) USD/CAD: 1.2800 (630M). AUD/USD: 0.7000 (375M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above Steadies after early slide but remains vulnerable EUR/USD opened 1.1200 and was slammed down to 1.1121 in early trading The blocking of certain Russian banks from Swift and Putin's nuclear alert rattled markets The escalation of the crisis is seen as heavily impacting the EU economy EUR/USD filled in the gaps back to 1.1181 before selling off again Heading into the afternoon it is trading around 1.1150 Support is at the Feb 24 low at 1.1106 where buyers are tipped A break below 1.1100 targets 76.4 of 1.0636/1.2349 at 1.1040 Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 1.1296 and break would ease the pressureGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Lower as markets reprice escalating Ukraine conflict Off 0.4% in a 1.3309-1.3381 range with very heavy morning volumes Sold with risk as the Ukraine conflict escalates - talks today Britain widens Russian 'dirty money' crackdown with a new law Geopolitics to lead sterling and all markets, in a likely volatile week Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages edge lower 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals now suggest a downtrend is live Targets 1.3166-75 longer term, Dec 2021 low and 38.2% 2020-2021 rise Close above 1.3499 61.8% February fall would end the downside biasUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below Risk mood very volatile with plenty of news on Ukraine over the weekend Asia indecision helps FX steady, USD/JPY 114.80-115.80 EBS, mostly @115.50 Offers still towards 116.00, above, bids on dips to/below 115.00 Option expiries today help anchor market, 115.40 strike $1 bln Nikkei down-up-down but moves limited, currently -0.3% @26,393, AXJ mixed E-Minis -2.6% after big Wall St rally Friday @4267.75 US yields on some safe-haven flows, Treasury 10s @1.895% TradeWeb JPY crosses volatile early too on Ukraine news, also mostly in recent rangesAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above AUD/USD was slammed over 1.0% lower to 0.7152 after the Ukraine crisis deepened News of Russian banks getting blocked from SWIFT and Putin nuclear deterrent alert rattled markets E-mini futures opened 2.5% lower and remained pressured through the morning AUD/USD showed some resilience and traded back to 0.7195 to fill in gaps Heading into the afternoon it is settling around 0.7175 Sellers are tipped ahead of 0.7200 with Friday's 0.7233 high resistance Support is at Friday's 0.7139 low and 61.8 fibo at 0.7088 AUD/USD rallies likely to be capped by geopolitical uncertainty

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-28-2022"
via IFTTT

US30, H4 | Potential Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 34386Pivot: 34039 Support: 32273Preferred Case:On the H4 timeframe, We see the possibility of bearish continuation from our pivot at 34039 in line with horizontal overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 32273 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Our bearish bias is further supported by how price is moving below the Ichimoku cloud.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 34386 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us30-h4-or-potential-bearish-drop"
via IFTTT

ETHUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 2833Pivot: 2500Support: 2325Preferred Case:Price is expected to bounce off our pivot at 2500 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support and the support of the Ichimoku cloud to our 1st resistance at 2833 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 2325 in line with the horizontal swing low support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-bounce"
via IFTTT

NZDUSD, H4 | Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.66969Pivot: 0.66591 Support: 0.6631Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to a daily ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 0.66591 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline towards our intermediate resistance at 0.66969 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Prices are trading above our Ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 0.6631 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-or-bullish-bounce28"
via IFTTT

Market Update – Major Risk-Off market moves as sanctions bite

Major RISK OFF mood in markets as they believe weekend announcements, unlike initial sanctions, will have significant impact. Rouble down 30% at record lows, Russian central bank has doubled a key rate to 20% from 9.5% and is openly buying gold. – Oil futures rallied well over $100/barrel. Safe havens of USD, JPY, Government Bonds and Gold all in demand. EUR, AUD, NZD stocks and yields all lower.

Week Ahead – Will be dominated by news from Ukraine; The BoC & RBA policy meetings month end today & and a heavy dose of global data releases including GDPs, PMIs, US ADP and NFP data.

• USD up (USDIndex 97.00). USD on bid next resistance 97.40 & 97.67.
• US Yields 10-yr tanked from 1.986% close Friday to 1.90% now. 
• Equities – USA500 +95.95pts (+2.24%) 4384 on Friday. US500 FUTS collapsed (-2.82%) to 4260 earlier, back to 4285 now.  
• USOil – Topped at $97.10, from under $90.00 on Friday, back to under $94.00 now.  
• Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now, having topped at $1930 earlier.     
• Bitcoin broke lower to trade at $38,250. 
• FX markets – EURUSD under 1.1185, USDJPY holds 115.50 and Cable trades at  1.3385.  

Overnight – JPY data mixed, Ind. production missed -1.3% vs -0.6% & Retail sales a tick higher at 1.6%) AUD data also mixed a big beat for Retail Sales 1.8% vs 0.3% & -4.4% previously.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 84 ticks at 166.99 and  Treasury futures outperform amid a general flight to safety amid the escalating tensions between the West and Russia that saw Russia’s Putin putting nuclear deterrent forces on high alert after western allies imposed stiff sanctions that included the exclusion of some Russian banks from Swift and also targeted Russia’s central bank. The opening of Russia’s stock markets has been postponed to the afternoon. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -3.2% and -1.5% respectively. Most Asian markets managed to close higher after a volatile session.

Today – Russian-Ukrainian officials meeting, US Chicago PMI, ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta; Fed’s Bostic; EU’s von der Leyen, China’s Foreign Minister Yi, Earnings ABf, Baidu.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.80%) Collapsed from Friday’s close over 130.20 to 128.50 lows & trades over 129.00 now. MAs remain aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 49.77 & rising, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.367, Daily ATR 1.2850.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /315026/
via IFTTT

From euro to EM: Russia's Ukraine war upends market bets

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/from-euro-to-em-russias-ukraine-war-upends-market-bets-2773539
via IFTTT

Rouble skids to all-time low, dollar surges as West bolsters Russia sanctions

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/rouble-skids-to-alltime-low-dollar-surges-as-west-bolsters-russia-sanctions-2773373
via IFTTT

Dollar Up, Gains as Russian Rouble Falls to All-Time Low Amid Fresh Sanctions

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-up-gains-as-russian-rouble-falls-to-alltime-low-amid-fresh-sanctions-2773512
via IFTTT

Dollar Strengthens Against Almost Everything on Russia Sanctions

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-strengthens-against-almost-everything-on-russia-sanctions-2773501
via IFTTT

Russian rouble tumbles to record low

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/russian-rouble-tumbles-to-record-low-2773482
via IFTTT

Rouble, euro plunge after West steps up Russia sanctions; yen gains

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/euro-down-12-vs-dollar-as-russia-sanctions-threaten-turmoil-2773373
via IFTTT

Ukraine's government raises crypto worth $8 million in crowdfunding appeal

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/ukraines-government-raises-crypto-worth-8-million-in-crowdfunding-appeal-2773269
via IFTTT

Nigeria to offer naira incentives to exporters to repatriate dollars

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/nigeria-to-offer-naira-incentives-to-exporters-to-repatriate-dollars-2773164
via IFTTT

Key economic reports and events for the week ahead

Russian’s special operation in the Donbas, which then spread to the whole of Ukraine, shocked the world community. The wave of risk aversion that began with the collapse of the Russian stock market also affected European and US equities, causing a moderate bearish pullback. Investors reduced their expectations of aggressive actions by central banks. Commodity prices, on the contrary, jumped due to fears that Western sanctions against Russia would affect commodity exporters and cause supply shocks.Nevertheless, reports began to appear on Friday that Russia and Ukraine could sit down at the negotiating table, which allowed the markets to breathe a sigh of relief. Commodity markets pulled back, gold and oil prices weakened. Major currency pairs won back part of the fall against the dollar.Next week, the focus of the markets will obviously remain on military operations in Ukraine, as well as the prospects for negotiations with the Russian Federation. This is the key to rapid de-escalation. From economic reports, attention should be paid to the ADP report on Wednesday and the NFP report on Friday. On Tuesday and Thursday, the interest rate decision will be made by the RBA and the Bank of Canada, all the attention on the assessment of geopolitical risks and their impact on policy. In addition, the head of the Fed, Powell, will speak on Thursday, and the ECB will release the minutes of the last meeting on the same day, which will clarify the prospect of the Central Bank to start tightening the screws in response to a marked increase in inflation pressures in first two months of 2022.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/key-economic-reports-and-events-for-the-week-ahead-27-02-2022"
via IFTTT

Guo Wengui: a Manhattan caper worthy of a spy thriller

When it comes to nautical notoriety, the Lady May, a 151-foot aluminium superyacht registered under the Cayman flag, is not quite up there with Robert Maxwell’s Lady Ghislaine. But it is getting there. The vessel, owned by the exiled Chinese billionaire, Guo Wengui – an ally and business partner of Steve Bannon, Donald Trump’s political strategist – was the scene of Bannon’s dramatic arrest in August 2020 on fraud charges. Now it is the centrepiece of Guo’s fight for financial survival, says Bloomberg. Earlier this month, a New York court ordered the businessman to pay $134m in fines “for moving and keeping the yacht out of reach” of his US creditors. Guo responded by filing for bankruptcy protection last week.  

A useful bargaining chip

Litigation has become something of a way of life for Guo (also known as Kwok Ho Wan and Miles Kwok), a property developer turned prominent critic of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), who fled the country in 2014 to seek asylum in the US, says The Wall Street Journal. On landing in New York, he bought a sumptuous 15-room condo on top of Fifth Avenue’s Sherry-Netherland hotel (now up for sale at $45m), set up a series of small media companies, and began waging a very public crusade to expose the corruption and scurrilous goings-on at the top of the CCP. Despite Guo’s somewhat comedic appearance – he posed for photographs clutching a white Persian cat like the Bond villain Blofeld – his actions had big consequences, says the Financial Times. In 2017, “China’s most aggressive dealmaker”, HNA (then ramping up its Western interests with stakes in Deutsche Bank and the Hilton hotel chain), was stopped in its tracks after a series of explosive but unsubstantiated claims shone an unwelcome spotlight on its affairs.

Guo alleged, via live video stream, that HNA was “secretly owned” by Wang Qishan, the party’s top anti-corruption official and a close associate of president Xi Jinping, along with salacious details about Wang’s love life. An increasingly rattled Beijing responded with first an Interpol red alert for his arrest, and then an attempt to woo him back by promising to unfreeze his assets in China. Trump reportedly considered deporting him, but was persuaded that Guo was a useful “bargaining chip” in his wider stand-off with Beijing, says The Wall Street Journal. By then Guo had been adopted as something of a mascot by “China hawks” like Bannon.

A real-life spy thriller

Given his own mysterious background, it isn’t surprising that Guo has attracted plenty of conspiracy theorists himself, says Politico. “Many basic details of his biography…remain hazy.” Born roughly 50 years ago in either Shandong province, or the Jilin province (reports differ), he made a fortune from the construction boom around the 2008 Olympics, developing “a reputation for playing hardball” by smearing anyone who stood in his way. Guo owed his rise to links with top officials, but a move into finance prompted his apparent downfall, says the FT. He quit China after a major clash at the prominent securities firm Founder Group. China later accused him of involvement in at least 19 major criminal cases, involving bribery, kidnapping, fraud and rape.

Is Guo who he says he is? Some doubt it, including US research firm Strategic Vision (which he hired, then fired); it alleged in 2019 that he is in fact a Beijing-backed spy – a “dissident hunter”, posing as “a dissident”. Those claims, while vigorously denied, have rather taken the shine off Guo’s US media career. But right now, money and legal worries dominate. Last September, three of his companies, including GTV Media (where Bannon is a director), were forced to pay $539m to settle charges of illegal securities and cryptocurrency sales. Guo’s murky backstory and “Manhattan caper” is “worthy of a spy thriller”, says the WSJ. There may be more chapters to come.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/604501/guo-wengui-profile-manhattan-caper-worthy-of-a-spy-thriller
via IFTTT

Let’s adjust to living with Covid and get Britain back to work

Two long years after the first cases of Covid-19 were reported in the UK and the pandemic is now, to all intents and purposes, over. With infection rates down and vaccination reducing the number of deaths and hospitalisations, we can accept that Covid-19 is, for most of us, a mild virus that will probably circulate forever. We can get back to normal again, yet companies are still struggling to do so.

Many offices are still half-empty and staff reluctant to go back to their desks five days a week. Businesses are still fobbing off their customers with lame “because of Covid-19” excuses. The public sector is still operating in second gear, with simple tasks such as driving tests taking months to book. Many universities are still teaching remotely, trade shows are cancelled, and training and new projects on hold until the outlook clears. 

Dust off the suit 

That may have been understandable at the height of the pandemic, but two years on, we are starting to see the dire effect it has had on the economy. The truth is most people are more productive in a suit than they are in their PJs (the UK has more people in work than ever, but we are producing no more than we did in 2019, so output per person has clearly fallen). Many firms have become relaxed about lowering their standards of service simply because they know customers have little choice but to accept it. And there is very little sign of dynamism from most major businesses – the tech giants raced ahead in lockdown and a handful of new stars emerged, but overall there are more zombie corporations than ever kept alive by cheap debt and subsidies. 

With the government ending its restrictions, this is surely the right week for the private sector to adjust to “living with Covid-19” as well. There are three places it could start. First, companies could insist that their people come back to the office full-time. True, many might be reluctant, and might have convinced themselves that they can be just as productive perched on the edge of the kitchen table as they ever were on the 20th floor of a skyscraper. In that case, they should negotiate their contracts so they can work flexibly, and they shouldn’t have any trouble convincing their employer to let them carry on. After all, no one wants to pay for expensive office space if people don’t work as well there. But there shouldn’t be any automatic assumption that they can simply carry on working from home without being able to clearly demonstrate it is more effective. 

“Due to Covid-19” not accepted anymore

Second, firms should benchmark themselves against 2019. They should be achieving the same delivery times, output levels and rates of growth as they were when none of us had even heard of Covid-19. There is no reason why phones should not be answered promptly, why orders should not be delivered on time, or why staff should not be trained in new skills. If the pandemic hadn’t got in the way, we would have expected productivity to have advanced 3% or 4% over the last couple of years, even at the UK’s generally fairly miserable rate of growth. We should try to make up some of that lost ground. 

Finally, all the projects and investment that were put on hold during the pandemic should be relaunched as quickly as possible. Advertising campaigns should be refreshed, new designs rolled out and new branches opened. There is lots of pent-up demand so long as the supply is there to meet it. Everyone wants to go out and start enjoying life again. Many businesses need to re-energise themselves to take advantage. 

The reality is that Covid-19 was destructive of the work ethic. Lockdown and working from home has made everyone sluggish, hollowed out teams that used to work well together, and undermined corporate culture and morale. The performance of the economy has steadily deteriorated. The important task now is to make sure that is not permanent. The UK is one the first countries to end all restrictions. It should end the excuses as well, encourage business to up its game and recapture the growth we have lost over the last two years.  

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/604492/lets-adjust-to-living-with-covid-and-get-britain-back-to-work
via IFTTT

Ukraine conflict keeps energy prices elevated as risk of supply disruptions remains high

Gas prices in Europe fell sharply in the course of trading session on Friday. The price of March futures in the European TTF hub in Netherlands plunged by 27% to $1,148 per 1,000 cubic meters on the ICE exchange as fears of Europe’s energy supply outages due to Ukraine conflict receded.Gas prices in Europe soared to as much as $1,600 per 1,000 cubic meters the day before — for the first time since December 23, 2021. Futures on natural gas at the auction on February 24 rose by more than 60%.Russian’s biggest gas producer Gazprom cooled market anxiety on Friday announcing that Ukraine’s gas pipeline is operating normally and there are no supply disruptions. The company's press service said that gas supplies to Europe are in line with the requests of European consumers - 103.8 million cubic meters. However, the risk of disruptions in gas supplies to Europe remains high which is likely to keep pressure on European equities as well as Euro in the near-term.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ukraine-conflict-keeps-energy-prices-elevated-as-risk-of-supply-disruptions-remains-high"
via IFTTT

Credit Suisse data leak reveals Swiss banks are home to scores of criminals’ loot

A massive data leak from the Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse has revealed details of 18,000 bank accounts, and 30,000 account holders, stretching back decades and holding more than $100bn in all. Some of the account holders are individuals, others are corporations, and 160 nationalities are represented. The sums involved are vast: the average account held about CHF7.5m at its largest point (about £6m, or more than $8m), and more than a dozen held more than $1bn. The anonymous leaker, who is a current or former employee of the bank, approached the Suddeutsche Zeitung journalists behind the Panama Papers and Pandora Papers data dumps over a year ago. Since then a team of journalists from an international consortium of newspapers (including The Guardian and The New York Times) has been investigating and checking the data – and this week published a selection of findings.

What did they discover?

That scores of criminals, kleptocrats and other assorted shysters have been accepted by Credit Suisse as clients. Eduard Seidel, a top executive with Siemens in Nigeria, had accounts containing tens of millions of Swiss francs, and still had them almost a decade after he was exposed in a major corruption scandal. Ronald Li Fook, the chairman of the Hong Kong stock exchange, opened an account a decade after being jailed for taking bribes. Rodoljub Radulovic, a boss of one of eastern Europe’s biggest cocaine-smuggling cartels, was allowed to open an account despite a long history of financial scandals in the US, and used it to launder drug money, according to Serbian prosecutors. Muller Conrad Rautenbach, a corrupt mining magnate subjected to US and EU sanctions, was given a Credit Suisse account even after the UN flagged up his involvement in corrupt deals. Other clients included the sons of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak and Nursultan Nazarbayev, the kleptocratic leader of Kazakhstan. This is probably not surprising. But it’s still grim that a major financial institution lets clients stash away laundered or stolen assets. The anonymous leaker specifically blames Swiss legislators for permitting an “immoral” situation that “enables corruption and starves developing countries” of tax.

What does Credit Suisse say?

It rejects allegations of wrongdoing or lack of due diligence and says that the matters raised are “predominantly historical”. It says that around 90% of the bank accounts covered by the leaks are now closed or “were in the process of closure prior to press enquiries” – and that 60% of those were closed prior to 2015. Yet the “Suisse Secrets” are far from the only scandal involving the bank in recent years. Earlier this month, for example, it became the first Swiss bank in the country’s history to face criminal charges. In a 500-page indictment, the bank has been accused of failing to conduct adequate checks on members of a Bulgarian mafia and drugs smuggling gang who used the bank to launder millions of euros between 2004 and 2008.

Why is Swiss banking so “secret”?

The tradition dates from the late 17th century, when France’s Catholic kings began using the banks in Geneva – a French-speaking city-state just across the border – to conceal their dealings from France’s own Protestant-dominated banking system. By 1713, the city authorities in Geneva had developed rules banning bankers from revealing details of their clients. That centuries-old code of silence was enshrined in law by the modern Swiss state in 1934, with its infamous Banking Law, which compels bankers to keep schtum. That law was originally designed to contain mounting international concern over Switzerland’s involvement in tax evasion. But it had the effect of attracting despots, thugs and tax evaders for decades to come. The law is still in place today, and breaches carry a five-year prison term. Indeed, in 2015, the law was actually strengthened, so that it now applies not just to bankers and other insiders, but to any third party who “reveals” or “exploits” a secret from within a Swiss bank. That’s got journalists spooked, and no Swiss papers risked publishing this week’s leaks.  

Didn’t the Swiss agree to open up?

Up to a point. In its statement rejecting the leaker’s claims, Credit Suisse says the leaks are designed to discredit both the bank and “the Swiss financial marketplace, which has undergone significant changes over the last several years”. The changes referred to are those agreed in 2014, and enacted in 2018, when Switzerland agreed to join around 100 countries to sign up to a global exchange of information about their respective taxpayers for the first time. In signing up to the so-called common reporting standard (CRS), Switzerland was bowing to years of concerted international pressure (and gigantic fines from US regulators) that had intensified since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The move all but ended the allure of Swiss secrecy for tax-evaders from rich developed countries. But there’s an important caveat.

What’s the caveat?

More than 90 countries, including many lesser-developed economies, are not part of the deal. For them, “nothing has changed”, according to Sebastian Guex, a banking professor at Lausanne. “Swiss bankers are still helping the wealthy in those countries to hide their assets form the tax authorities in their own countries.” Banking secrecy is not dead, argue critics – it has merely morphed into a so-called “zebra strategy”, in which Swiss banks are closing the door to dodgy money from rich industrialised nations, but left the door open to the rest of the world. Meanwhile, other financial centres that offer significant secrecy benefits to the super-rich have grown in importance – such as Singapore, dubbed “the new Switzerland” by Andy Xie, the ex-Morgan Stanley chief Asia economist, and London. Switzerland has been famed for discreet bankers for more than 300 years. But these days, it’s one player among many.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/604497/credit-suisse-data-leak-reveals-swiss-banks-are-home-to-scores-of-criminals-loot
via IFTTT

UKOil: OPEC Refuses To Play This Game

UKOil, Weekly

US President Biden and his allies’ new sanctions against Russia became a turning point for most currencies and stock markets yesterday, though the risk-off mode has turned neutral for the time being. The Pound and the risk sensitive Euro plunged over 250 pips, hitting daily lows, although the daily close recovered some of the losses.

However, gas prices proved to be far more sensitive and recorded huge increases. Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine adds to the concerns of market participants about world gas supplies, especially in Europe, which relies on Russian natural gas. Energy imports to the EU from Russia as a share of total imports to the EU from Russia decreased by 5.9 percentage points (pp) from 61.6% in 2017 to 55.7% in 2020 but increased sharply to 65.5% in the first semester of 2021. Hence if the supply is eroded, it is not impossible that the energy crisis could hit harder.

According to BP Statistics Review, Russia has a 25.3% share of the world’s natural gas export market, which means it has enough power to move the price of natural gas. In addition, Russia is the second largest natural gas producer in the world with a contribution of 16.6% of natural gas production in 2020.

In addition, Petroleum prices could also be further affected by increased concerns and a prolonged invasion, although some countries have decided to use up their oil reserves. Brent crude futures are holding at $100 a barrel at the time of writing following a dramatic session that saw the British benchmark hit $105 before giving up gains.

Oil previously pared most of its gains, as US president Joe Biden rolled out new sanctions against Russia but made it clear that Western powers are unwilling to sacrifice their own economies to punish Moscow. Biden also addressed the issue of energy supply, saying the US would work with other major consuming nations on a coordinated release of reserves. Japan and Australia have indicated they may be part of an international reserve release, but China has said it has no immediate plans to intervene in the oil market. Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles continued to fall, nearing critical levels that could spur further oil gains.

Technical View

UKOil maintains the 10-week gain that began in December 2021. Technically, the weekly chart has confirmed the inverted head and shoulder pattern since breaking the $86.66 structural resistance in January. The price cycle is also clearly depicted on the CCI (50) and MACD indicators, from when the midline crossing occurred in November. For some time to come, it is believed that the price of this asset will experience high volatility. Temporary resistance is the peak formed yesterday (Thursday) at $105.74 and it is likely that investors will tend to pay attention to political developments in Northern Europe, so that the $100.00 price level will still be the general benchmark. At the bottom support comes from $92.52.

Alongside fears that a break of the $105.74 resistance to $115.00 and $130.00 could trigger an energy crisis, especially in Europe, there is also hope that oil-producing countries that are members of OPEC will intervene in price spikes by increasing their production even more if Russia cuts its oil exports. However, this looks unlikely as a number of officials from OPEC member countries have stated that there is no urgent need to increase production even higher, even though Brent has penetrated the level of US $100.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /314579/
via IFTTT

Market Update – February 25 – Volatility was the only real winner!

Stock market sentiment started to stabilise overnight after Wall Street closed up from session lows. US futures are in the red though, led by a 0.8% drop in the USA100, and as officials in Europe and the US announce stiff sanctions for Russia, traders are also mulling what that means for Europe. Higher energy prices clearly are one thing and Brent is still holding above the $100 per barrel mark this morning. Russia’s oil exports seem to have been spared for now, while allies blocking access of the Swift payment system is also a possibility should a further escalation of sanctions become necessary.

• USD settled lower below 97.00 (USDIndex 96.86).
• China’s PBOC made a large liquidity injection. China’s central bank injected net 290 billion yuan via seven-day reverse repo operations today. That is the largest amount since September 2020 and according to the PBOC is designed to keep liquidity stable over the month end. The wild ride in global stock markets may have contributed to the move as external pressures, including the rise in oil prices, will add to existing problems, including the slump in the property markets and Covid related restrictions. The combination will likely keep the PBOC on an easing path.
• The VIX slid back to the 28.50 region after spiking to 37.79.
• US Yields – 10-year is down -0.3 bp at 1.96%, while the 10-year JGB rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 0.203% and yields are also higher in Australia and New Zealand.
• Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 1.65% and 1.2%. JPN225 gained nearly 2% and the CSI 300 is currently up 0.8%. USA100 round tripped, bouncing 3.35% higher after tumbling -3.4%, while USA500 recovered to post a 1.59% gain from a -2.6% drop, with USA30 rising 0.28% versus a -2.6% morning drop.
• USOil –  fell back to $89.60 lows after hitting 7-year highs of $100.50 ahead of the open. Currently at $93.70.
• Gold – tumbled from a $1974 high down to the $1885 area.   
• Bitcoin back above PP at  $37,700.
• FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1210 from 1.1110 low, USDJPY back above 115.15, Cable breached 1.3438.

European Open – Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and gas comes at a price and will be something officials need to address urgently, although there is of course no quick solution, which means consumers will feel the pain of even higher energy costs. The jump in the cost of living is already depressing consumer confidence, and after the disappointing German GfK consumer confidence reading earlier in the week, the UK’s numbers overnight looked equally depressing. The pressure on central bank to step in will remain then, even against the background of the crisis in Ukraine.

DATA: German Q4 GDP revised up markedly – to -0.3% q/q from -0.7% q/q reported initially. German import price inflation hit 26.9% y/y in January, another higher than expected number that is likely to explode in coming months when the jump in oil prices is reflected, as it seems extremely unlikely that oil prices will go down very quickly in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European gas prices exploded yesterday and are also likely to remain very high, which means more pain for consumers ahead, as the cost of living explodes.

Today – Today’s data calendar includes detailed German GDP, preliminary French inflation numbers, the Eurozone ESI confidence reading, US PCE, Durable Goods and Michigan index. EU and ECB officials are set to hold a presser today, likely detailing some sanctions against Russia and their implementation.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDRUB (+1.18%) spiked to 22.30 from 21.99 on EU open. MAs bulishly crossed, MACD signal line & histogram remain close to 0 line, RSI 64 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0622, Daily ATR 0.2683.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /314520/
via IFTTT

ETHUSD, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 2836Pivot: 2747Support: 2334Preferred Case:On the H4, Price is near pivot level of 2747 in line with our horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially dip to the graphical overlap support of 2334 in line with the swing low support. Our bearish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading below it. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price can go to our 1st resistance level of 2836 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation"
via IFTTT

Lexus NX – a refined and smooth SUV

Lexus, Toyota’s luxury division, is a “hybrid-tech stalwart”, says Richard Ingram in Auto Express. Aside from its V8-engine RC and LC sports cars, every model is available exclusively with electrified powertrains. This new NX SUV is no different. Made for cruising in exceptional comfort, the car is “smooth and refined, beautifully built, and even without a usable zero-emissions range, could genuinely slash your fuel bills”. The NX is Lexus’s bestselling model in the UK – and “on this evidence, will continue to be for some time to come”.

It’s a car built for comfort over raw power, but it is no slouch, with a combined engine and electric motor punch of 244bhp, delivering a 0-62mph time of just 7.7 seconds, says Rory White on YesAuto. It’s grippy through the bends too, and the ride smooth, the suspension absorbing the bumps nicely, says Tyler Duffy in Gear Patrol Magazine. It is exceptionally quiet at low speeds, too: “I didn’t notice I was driving through 30mph wind gusts until I looked up and saw a flag pole”. The car can glide along at low-speeds on battery power alone, allowing you to trickle along in slow-moving traffic at very low cost, says Neil Winn in What Car. In good conditions you can expect a fuel consumption of around 47mpg. The NX may not be as flashy as Jaguar’s or Mercedes’s rival offerings, but there’s a subtle charisma to its aesthetic that can’t be found elsewhere, even in older Lexus models. 

Inside, the cabin has been significantly updated, says Jonathan Crouch in RAC. The interior features a 9.8-inch screen – which can be upgraded to a 14-inch Lexus Link Pro set-up – and touch-sensitive buttons on the steering wheel, and is all modelled according to Lexus’s Tazuma design philosophy – a “human-centric” principle intended to make driving cars as straightforward as possible, using high-quality materials and a dashboard that curves towards the driver’s seat. In short, the Lexus NX offers a sophisticated and grown-up driving experience that few rivals can match. Prices start at £48,800.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/spending-it/cars/604490/lexuss-refined-and-smooth-nx-suv
via IFTTT

Travel: come ye to Hampton Court

“Why come ye not to court?” asked 16th-century poet John Skelton, who noted that, while the King’s court “should have the excellence”, Hampton Court, then owned by Cardinal Thomas Wolsey, “hath the pre-eminence.” So it’s perhaps little surprise that Wolsey was in due course “persuaded” to hand it over to Henry VIII.

Today, you can take a tour of the former royal palace, encompassing both the original Tudor buildings (including the kitchens), and Christopher Wren’s baroque wing that was commissioned by William and Mary. You can also see the gardens where William of Orange met his nemesis in the form of a mole, who would become famous as the “little gentleman in velvet” whose mound was the cause of his downfall and eventual death while horse riding.

Bushy Park: wildlife haven

King Henry VIII did not just take over Hampton Court, but also established three nearby parks – Hare Warren, Middle Park and Bushy Park – for hunting. Today’s Bushy Park encompasses all three sites, and is the second-largest royal park in London, at 1,100 acres. Although the only private hunting allowed today is from the barrel of a telephoto lens, it’s estimated that the park has around 320 deer. It is also home to a variety of wildlife, avenues of mature trees and a 60-acre woodland garden, and has been designated a Site of Special Scientific Interest.

© Matthew Partridge

Hampton Court may have been the house of kings, but if you’re interested in the “sport of kings” then you should pay a visit to Sandown Park Racecourse, a short taxi ride away. On a typical year Sandown runs 26 meetings, including both flat and jump racing. Bookmaker Barry Johnson, which has been operating for 55 years, says that Sandown is “famous for the quality of racing and the stiffness of the ground, which you need to take into account when reading form”. The nearest station is Esher, from which regular trains run to London Waterloo.

Mitre Hampton Court: a charming inn

By the 17th century Hampton Court had become such a centre of royal life that the number of courtiers and visiting dignitaries was more than it could accommodate. As a result, King Charles II ordered that a “hostel for visitors to the Palace” be created opposite. Today, the Grade II-listed inn is known as the Mitre Hampton Court. Bought at the start of 2020 by The Signet Collection, founded by Hector Ross and Ronnie Kimbugwe, the inn was refurbished during the first lockdown, with the help of internationally acclaimed designer Nicola Harding. Harding’s aim was to create a hotel that combined tradition and modernity, with the standards that today’s luxury travellers expect in the bedrooms and public areas, while “retaining the best of British hospitality”, as Francois Plougonven, the front of house manager, puts it. Looking at the room I stayed in (named after Henry’s son, King Edward VI), they have certainly succeeded. It has a charming country house design, complete with a mini library, bath and shower room. There were also plenty of little touches, including an invitation to enjoy a complimentary drop of ginger liqueur.

1665 and the Coppernose: two excellent restaurants

The inn has two restaurants, both the brainchild of Kimbugwe, who trained under Gordon Ramsay, and run on a day-to-day basis by senior sous chef Simon Dyer, who was the executive head chef on Richard Branson’s Necker Island. The 1665 restaurant is the more formal riverside eaterie, ideal for a dinner at the end of a day’s sightseeing. I was impressed by the tempura whitebait followed by a pan roast Cornish monkfish with truffle and parmesan fries, washed down with an elegant glass of house white. 

If you were looking for somewhere to take your family on a Saturday night, however, you might want to consider the Coppernose, the relaxed, dog-friendly café and wine bar. It’s also a great place to enjoy a hearty English breakfast while reading the morning papers. Its full English, available in either half or full portion, consists of crispy streaky bacon, wild boar and apple sausage, roasted mushrooms and slow-cooked baked beans. 

The Mitre is also available for parties, weddings and business events, with the Orangery accommodating up to 70 guests for a wedding breakfast and evening reception. It also hosts a monthly supper club. 

Matthew was a guest at the Mitre Hampton Court. Classic rooms start from £200 a night, mitrehamptoncourt.com

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/spending-it/travel-and-holidays/604488/travel-mitre-hampton-court-palace
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, February 25, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, February 25, 2022 Overnight Headlines Russia Bombs Ukrainian Capital City Of Kyiv In The Early Morning Russia ‘Unlikely’ Achieved Military Goals In First Wave Of Invasion World Leaders Divided On Whether To Eject Russia From SWIFT China Refuses To Condemn Russian Attack, Deflects Blame To US PBoC Makes Biggest Weekly Cash Injection Since Jan 2020 CPI In Japan's Capital Perks Up, Ukraine Crisis To Add Pressure New Zealand’s C. Bank Aims To Raise Rates As Quickly As Possible Fed's Waller: 'Strong Case' For 50 Bps March Hike If Data Is Hot UK Consumer Confidence Hits 13Mth Low On Surging Living Costs China's Yuan Set For Third Straight Weekly Gain, Despite Invasion Bitcoin's Equity Correlation Rises As Crisis Whipsaws Crypto Market Oil Prices Surge As Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Rings Supply Alarms Asian Shares Mostly Rise, US Futures Slip; Markets Eye Ukraine RiskThe Day Ahead Stock markets staged some recovery in Asia despite a series of targeted sanctions announced by the West yesterday in response to Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine (reports suggest that forces are near the Ukrainian capital Kyiv). The sanctions include restrictions of exports of high-tech goods, limits on Russia’s access to western capital markets and restrictions on some wealthy individuals with links to the Kremlin. The measures, however, did not extend to cutting Russia from Swift, the global payments system. President Biden indicated that the US will release additional oil reserves as needed to cushion the economic impact. China’s central bank also provided additional liquidity to its banking system, which may have supported market sentiment. The simultaneous impact of higher global energy prices in increasing inflation and reducing economic growth is likely to further complicate the monetary outlook for major central banks. Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, UK GfK consumer confidence data released overnight showed a sharp fall to -26 from -19, the lowest since the start of 2021, with households becoming more pessimistic about their finances and the economy. Ahead today, the key economic data release is the US Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, which is expected to show another rise in annual headline inflation in January to over 6%, its highest for almost forty years. That would mirror the rise already seen in the CPI inflation measure to 7.5%. Given the further rise in global oil prices, expect a further increase in annual inflation rates in the coming months. In the Eurozone, the economic sentiment index is forecast to have improved in February, helped by rises in industrial and services confidence. The results, however, will have not captured the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Earlier this morning, France released HICP inflation showing a bigger-than-expected rise to 4.1% in February from 3.3%. Next week’s Eurozone flash CPI estimate is forecast to show a rise in annual inflation from January’s 5.1%, with further increases in train especially after the recent surge in European natural gas prices. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill is scheduled to give closing remarks on the final day of the Bank’s annual conference on the monetary toolkit. ECB President Christine Lagarde is also due to speak after today’s Eurogroup meeting. Asian stock markets mostly recovered some ground, with the Nikkei up nearly 2% and Chinese stocks also higher. UK equity futures are positive. Brent crude oil has fluctuated significantly, peaking above $105 a barrel yesterday before falling below $100. It has risen back above $100 overnightG10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.1200-10 (1.65BLN), 1.1225 (649M) 1.1245-55 (1.6BLN), 1.1260-70 (782M)1.1275-80 (620M), 1.1285-00 (4.38BLN), 1.1315-25 (1.28BLN) 1.1330-40 (1.2BLN), 1.1345-50 (690M), 1.1375-85 (980M) 1.1395-1.1410 (647M), 1.1425-35 (1.04BLN), 1.1455-60 (390M) USD/JPY: 113.45-55 (915M), 113.65-75 (940M) 113.90-00 (875M), 114.30 (388M), 115.0 (375M) 115.25 (570M), 116.00 (441M), 116.15-20 (510M 116.40 (1.39BLN) EUR/GBP: 0.8350-55 (520M). USD/CHF: 0.9300-10 (985M) USD/CAD: 1.2605-50 (975M), 1.2850-55 (395M) AUD/USD: 0.7125-30 (1.04BLN), 0.7140-50 (575M) 0.7225-35 (3.2BLN), 0.7250 (388M), 0.7270 (483M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above EUR/USD back from the brink, positive close and interesting low EUR/USD rallied late on Feb 25 rising from 1.1106 low to close 1.1192 Today's range 1.11865-1.1228 Today's 1.11865 low matches the 61.8% retracement of 1.0340-1.2556 rise 1.1186 was the 2021 low Rebound may encourage traders to reestablish longs or add to losing bets The trapped nature of EUR/USD is related to SNB intervention Rebalancing of SNB intervention will weigh on strength If Turkey opts to rebuild reserves, it may also sell EUR/USD Sustained EUR/USD gains remain a low probabilityGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Risk appetite leads – data poses problems for BoE +025%, with the U.S. dollar a touch softer with buoyant Asian stocks Biggest UK consumer confidence drop since start of pandemic UK sees fastest wage rises in sectors reliant on EU workers Combination of falling sentiment and inflationary pressures quandary for BoE Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages edge lower 21 day Bollinger bands contract - neutral setup has turned negative Targets 1.3166-75 longer term, Dec 2021 low and 38.2% 2020-2021 rise Close above 1.3488 recent range low would end the downside biasUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below USD/JPY, JPY crosses off some from late New York highs, Ukraine news Risk mood better after Wall Street rise but Russia-Ukraine still weighs Nikkei down from early highs but still +1.4% on day @26,355 USD/JPY 115.62 to 115.18 EBS despite decent Gotobi Tokyo fix demand Still well above 114.41 low in late Asia/early London yesterday Massive option expiries today on 114, total 2.9 bln 114.00-70 Also 115.15-40 total $675 mln, 116.00-10 above total $602 mln US yields also firmer but off overnight highs, Tsy 10s last @1.952%AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above AUD/USD whips back up; US inflation data the next cue AUD/USD whips back up to 0.7196 from day low 0.7139 Premature to count on further rise, but potential exists Would also cross over 38.2% Fibo resistance 0.7208 That creates a opening for another test of 100 DMA 0.7239 As Ukraine uncertainty persists, US CPI later might be next cue

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-25-2022"
via IFTTT

Wine of the week: an exquisite and evocative French syrah

2020 Crozes-Hermitage Rouge, Maison Les Alexandrins, Northern Rhône, France 

£29.70, hedonism.co.uk

The 2020 Rhône Valley offers are whizzing around the wine world like racing pigeons. One eminent wine merchant tells me that, in spite of this annual flurry of activity, the Rhônes En Primeur season is often a veritable damp squib, sandwiched each year by the frenzied bun fights of Burgundy EP in January and Bordeaux EP in April/May. This is a great shame because, unlike the aforementioned mega-regions, the Rhône still manages to offer world-class wines at affordable prices. While I know keen fans will sink their teeth into their favourite wines, I thought I would sound the alarm from this page with a wine that you do not have to wait to buy or indeed drink. If any wine will rev you up to the joys of elite French syrah, then this is it!  

After the unusually warm 2018 and 2019 vintages, the latter affected with severe hail damage in parts, 2020 was a year in which the vignerons had to nurse their oft-damaged vines back to health. It was a vintage when precision viticulture paid huge dividends and challenges came thick and fast. Some of the finest wines are made in years like this because minds are focused and talent is acutely reflected in the bottle. 

I nearly dropped my glass when I first tasted this exquisite Crozes. With a brief ten months spent in barrel and a mere 13% alcohol, this expressive syrah, soaked in granite and garrigue, is as aromatic and evocative as many wines twice the price. 

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/spending-it/wine/604491/wine-of-the-week-2020-crozes-hermitage-rouge
via IFTTT

What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean for energy and petrol prices?

Russian president Vladimir Putin has for months refuted claims that Russia is invading Ukraine. But on Thursday, those fears turned into reality after Russia announced a “special military operation” – AKA invasion – in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.

The oil market jumped: Brent crude, the international benchmark, crossed $105 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Meanwhile, the price of gas and other fuels also soared.

So what does Putin want and what does the situation mean for fuel and energy prices?

What just happened?

Early last week, Russia said it would withdraw troops from close to Ukraine’s border, having built up a force of around 150,000. But then On Monday, Putin declared the independence of two pro-Russian rebel-controlled territories of Luhansk and Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine.

That itself was a significant provocation – a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. It also signalled the end of a diplomatic solution to the crisis, and to the Minsk Agreements – a series of agreements made in 2015 that aimed to end war in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region – and made war seem inevitable.

Then today, the invasion was launched. Blasts have been heard in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. Russian troops have launched attacks from all sides – attacking from Ukraine’s northern border with Belarus, its eastern border with Russia, and in the south from Crimea, reports the Financial Times. In short, it’s a “full-scale military invasion” with Putin demanding that Kyiv’s army “lay down its weapons”.

Why has Russia invaded Ukraine?

The Kremlin ostensibly wants the US and Nato to guarantee that Ukraine will never be allowed to become a Nato member. Putin furthermore wants Nato to stop all military activity in Eastern Europe and pull back troops from countries that joined after 2017.

For years, Putin has cast doubt on whether Ukraine is even a separate country, going so far as to publish an essay last year in which he appeared to be “rewriting Ukraine’s history”, notes the FT. He echoed these views in a scathing televised speech on Monday.

Recent tensions come after Russia first invaded and then annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014. Donetsk and Luhansk broke off from Ukraine and war reverberated in eastern Donbas and eventually spread to West Ukraine.

Why now? There is no obvious answer, but it’s hard to argue that there’s ever been a better time, with Russian and Chinese interests currently aligned against a West which has proved divided on how to react to Russian aggression in the area. Then of course there’s the post-pandemic chaos and Europe’s ongoing reliance on Russia for energy exports at a time where Europe is already reeling from higher energy prices.

How has the oil market reacted?

The price of Brent crude oil jumped by 8% to a seven-year high, breaching $105 a barrel for the first time since 2014. At the time of writing, it is trading around $104.90.

Russia’s influence on the oil market cannot be understated as it is the world’s second-largest oil exporter only after Saudi Arabia and also the world’s biggest natural gas producer.

The oil market was already battling higher prices in recent days after countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates refused to increase oil supply to ease higher prices.

Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, said “the scale of disruption and corresponding difficulty in substituting for lost Russian supply mean that price sensitivity to Russian oil disruptions are high.”

He expects oil prices to rise by a further 15%-30% if around a third of Russian oil exports are affected. So there is further pain ahead for the oil market, with prices “as high as $115-$130 (a barrel) is not unimaginable amid elevated risks of a head-on conflict between Russia and the West,” he said.

What about gas prices?

News of Russia’s invasion caused a 20% jump in Dutch gas futures, one of Europe’s most liquid markets, while EU gas prices spiked by 30% to €115 per megawatt hour on Thursday – a two-month high. German power prices for March also rose by as much as 31%.

European and UK gas prices were already on the rise this week after the suspension of Nord Stream 2, an $11bn gas pipeline project owned by the Russian state-owned enterprise Gazprom, which runs from western Siberia to Germany. The project was intended to double the capacity of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which is already operational.

A sardonic Tweet by Dimitry Medvedev, Russia’s former prime minister and now deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, underscores how much higher European gas prices may rise. Medvedev, who tweeted in response to the project being cancelled on Tuesday said: “Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans will soon be paying €2,000 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas!”

For comparison, European gas prices were trading at around €830 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas before the invasion took place.

How will this affect UK energy bills?

While the UK is less reliant than its European peers on Russian energy (the UK only takes 3% of its gas supplies from Russia), wholesale prices rising in Europe means prices will jump in the UK as well.

Jonathan Brearly – the chief executive of the UK’s energy regulator Ofgem – warned earlier this month that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could send prices higher in the UK and ultimately result in an even higher energy price cap.

The energy price cap, which is the maximum price per kilowatt hour (kWH) that energy providers can charge consumers for gas and electricity, increased by £693 (for the average household’s usage) at the start of the month and Russia’s conflict with Ukraine is just one of many factors that are likely to see the price cap rise even further in October.

How will it affect petrol prices?

The RAC warned yesterday that the average price of petrol is likely to hit £1.50 a litre soon, and £1.54 for diesel. As RAC spokesman Simon Williams put it, this represents “another unfortunate landmark”.

And with crude oil prices surging further, it’s unlikely to be the last. As the Daily Mail points out, if crude prices rise to their previous record of around $140 per barrel, the RAC reckons that would push petrol up to £1.70 a litre.

For perspective, in 2000, when fuel protests erupted over rising petrol prices (partly focused on high levels of fuel taxation) in the UK, the price per litre had just hit 80p a litre for unleaded.

What about interest rates?

One bigger concern with higher oil prices due to the conflict is that it may exacerbate inflation, which is already running high in major economies such as the UK and the US.

This will make life even trickier for central banks. Higher energy and petrol prices push inflation higher but they also cut into the disposable income available to consumers, which is in itself recessionary.

Jason Hollands, managing director of online investing platform BestInvest, says: ‘There is now a real possibility that the Bank of England’s forecast CPI inflation peak of 7.25% in April will be exceeded, and inflation at those levels will be totally unprecedented for many of today’s investors.”

 

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/604507/russia-invasion-ukraine-energy-gas-and-petrol-prices
via IFTTT

Russian central bank increases daily dollar offer via forex swap to $5 billion

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/russian-central-bank-increases-daily-dollar-offer-via-forex-swap-to-5-billion-2770878
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, February 24, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, February 24, 2022 Overnight Headlines Russia Attacks Targets Across Ukraine After Putin Orders Strikes NATO: Very Much Looks Like Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Has Begun BoJ Won't Roll Back Stimulus Soon But Watching Rising Costs Australia Business Investment Bounces In Q4, Outlook Upgraded Fed's Daly: Need At Least Four Rate Hikes This Year, Probably More ECB'S Stournaras: APP Should Continue At Least Until Year-End Australia, NZ Dlrs Caught In Risk Fallout From Ukraine Crisis Ten-Year JGB Yields Hit 3-Week Low As Russian Forces Invade Ukraine Oil Surges Above $100 For First Time Since 2014 As Russia Attacks Ukraine US Eyes Strategic Oil Reserves Release As Prices Rise On Ukraine Fresh Losses Hit Asia Stocks As Putin Orders Military OperationThe Day Ahead Stock markets and Treasury yields fell overnight while oil prices, gold and safe-haven currencies rose after Russia launched military attacks across Ukraine in a major escalation of the crisis. Ukraine has declared martial law and President Biden said the US and its allies will apply ‘severe’ sanctions in response, which are expected to include further restrictions on Russian banks and export controls on key technologies. The focus remains on Russia-Ukraine tensions, where overnight events have ended hopes of a diplomatic solution to the crisis. The impact on global energy prices and economic confidence could further intensify difficult policy trade-offs for central banks. There are several central bank speakers making appearances today, including at a Bank of England annual conference on the monetary toolkit. There is a limited slate of data releases. Governor Bailey will kick off the BoE’s two-day conference on the monetary toolkit with a welcome address. The conference ‘will bring together academics, practitioners and policymakers to discuss monetary policy instruments and the new strategy questions that central banks are facing’. Notably, BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent will chair a panel from 4pm on the unwinding of QE. Panellists include the Fed’s Daly and the ECB’s Schnabel. There will also be focus on Fed speakers in separate events, include Barkin and Mester who will talk about the economic outlook. Data wise, the UK CBI distributive trades survey will provide an early look at retail activity in February. Last month’s survey showed a rise in the net balance for the volume of sales. Perhaps more interesting is the overnight release of UK GfK consumer confidence which we see falling to -21 from -19. In the US, Q4 GDP is expected to be revised marginally to 7.0% (annualised quarterly growth) from 6.9%. Weekly initial jobless claims have been quite volatile recently. Expect initial claims to fall to 220k from 248k, supported by a waning Omicron impact. Asian stock markets are a sea of red, with the Nikkei down nearly 2% and the Hang Seng more than 3% lower. European equity futures are down as much as 5% (German DAX index). Brent crude oil increased above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, while US 10-year Treasury yields fell below 1.90% and gold moved closer to $2000 an ounceG10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.1200-10 (1.65BLN), 1.1225 (649M) 1.1245-55 (1.6BLN), 1.1260-70 (782M)1.1275-80 (620M), 1.1285-00 (4.38BLN), 1.1315-25 (1.28BLN) 1.1330-40 (1.2BLN), 1.1345-50 (690M), 1.1375-85 (980M) 1.1395-1.1410 (647M), 1.1425-35 (1.04BLN), 1.1455-60 (390M) USD/JPY: 113.45-55 (915M), 113.65-75 (940M) 113.90-00 (875M), 114.30 (388M), 115.00 (375M) 115.25 (570M), 116.00 (441M), 116.15-20 (510M 116.40 (1.39BLN) EUR/GBP: 0.8350-55 (520M). USD/CHF: 0.9300-10 (985M) USD/CAD: 1.2605-50 (975M), 1.2850-55 (395M) AUD/USD: 0.7125-30 (1.04BLN), 0.7140-50 (575M) 0.7225-35 (3.2BLN), 0.7250 (388M), 0.7270 (483M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above Breaks key support as Ukraine crisis deepens EUR/USD opened -.20% at 1.1304 after easing in mounting Ukraine crisis After trading at 1.1309 it came under pressure on reports Russia was ready to invade Selling accelerated after Putin authorized military operation in Donbass EUR/USD breaking key support at 61.8 of 1.1122/1.1495 move at 1.1264 Heading into the afternoon it is at session low at 1.1255/60 A clear break below 1.1260 would open up eventual test of trend low @ 1.1122 Market focus is entirely on crisis in Ukraine and whether it escalates Risk assets under heavy pressure with Eminis down over 1.60% on news USD and safe-haven likely to remain bid as crisis unfoldsGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Heavy, as Ukraine fears support the U.S. dollar Off 0.15%, as safe haven USD firmed on Ukraine fears... Risk off - E-mini S&P -1.5%, Brent +1.9%, 10yr UST -8bp 1.9199% 52% of Britons are feeling the cost of living pinch - poll Sterling trades at the base of a 1.3522-1.3553 range - busy on Ukraine news Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages conflict 21 day Bolli bands contract - neutral setup suggests a range 1.3643/61 Feb high, 76.4% 2022 fall and upper 21 day Bolli strong resistance 1.3467, 61.8% January-February bounce a viable range baseUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below USD/JPY pulled down by JPY cross sales, Ukraine still The Russia-Ukraine situation continues to escalate, market risk off Risk off sentiment pushing EUR/JPY, JPY crosses lower, weighs on USD/JPY USD/JPY 114.74-115.15 choppy, holding precarious above key supports Ascending 55-DMA 114.77, daily Ichi cloud 114.44-70, 100-DMA 114.35 below Upside seen capped for now ahead of descending 200-HMA at 115.19 Many Japanese players side-lined ahead of US NFP release tomorrow US backing away from highs yesterday, Treasury 10s @1.925%, high o/n 2.0% EUR/JPY 129.06-130.03, looking to break lower still, 129.36 low yesterday GBP/JPY 155.25-88, AUD/JPY 82.52-83.17, some AUD/JPY demand on dips Nikkei -1.1% @26,161, E-Minis -1.6% @4156, AXJ mostly off large tooAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above AUD/USD hammered by onslaught of war in Ukraine AUD/USD dives to 0.7167 from open 0.7233, down 0.9% vs close Melts throughsupport floor 0.7194 May reach Fibo support at 0.7126 before the day is over Russia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine Mass risk-off across various assets triggered as oil spikes UST yields slide, US stock futures dunked 2.4%, crypto slammed

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-24-2022"
via IFTTT

Rouble trading suspended as currency dives after Russia invades Ukraine

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/rouble-trading-suspended-as-currency-dives-after-russia-invades-ukraine-2770799
via IFTTT

GBPCHF, H4 | Potential For Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: : 1.24704Pivot: 1.23906Support: 1.23552Preferred Case:Prices are currently at our pivot at 1.23906 in line with daily ascending trendline, 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot towards our 1st resistance at 1.24704 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI being at levels where bounces previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 1.23552 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpchf-h4-or-potential-for-bullish-bounce"
via IFTTT

Market Update – February 24 – Stocks plummet, oil up as Russia attacks Ukraine

Risk aversion has hit markets hard amid reports of a full blown attack from Russia on the Ukraine, which has also lifted Brent clearly above the $100 per barrel mark.  Ukraine declared a 30-day state of emergency, called up reservists and urged its citizens to leave Russia. More cyber attacks on government websites and banks, and dis-information campaigns were seen as a prelude to war. Also, US officials said diplomacy with Russia was dead for now. Those added to the gloom. Russia suspends movement of commercial vessels in Azov se. Von Der Leyen – EU we will not allow Putin  on Russian sanctions

Treasuries rallied and stock markets across Asia sold off as the world looks to the Ukraine. The US Treasury rate is down -12.3 bp at 1.868%, while the Nikkei has lost -1.8%, the ASX nearly 3% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 -3.1% and -2.3% respectively. Brent is trading at $102.19, the front end WTI future at $97.07 per barrel. Gold below $1949. USDRUB at 80.99

• USD spikes (USDIndex 96.75)
• US Yields 10-year yield down to 1.868%.
• Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are down more than 3.5% and 2% respectively, while USA500 were down 2.3% and USA100 fell 2.8%, putting the USDIndex on track toward confirming it is in a bear market.
• Reuters : “Closing down at least 20% from its Nov. 19 record high close of 16,057.437 points would confirm the Nasdaq has been in a bear market, according to a widely used definition. That would mark its first bear market since 2020, when the coronavirus outbreak crushed global financial markets.”
• USOil – spiked to $96.46, & UKOIL past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, adding to inflation worries.
• Gold – rallied over 2%as haven demand ebbed – below $1900.   
• Bitcoin below $35,000,  sell-off spread to cryptocurrency markets as well.
• FX markets – Yen benefited, while the Euro and to a lesser extend Sterling struggled, EURUSD at 1.1245, USDJPY drift to 114.39. Cable breaches 1.3485.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has gained 182 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, which are up 119 ticks, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted off overnight lows, but is still down -10.9 bp on the day at 1.882%. Europe in particular is seen as vulnerable to the escalation of the situation also because it potentially effects energy supplies, although A German economic institute yesterday suggested Germany could get through the winter even if Russia totally cuts off gas supplies. Meanwhile more sanctions to hit Russia’s economy are underway and for now the situation remains fluid, which will keep markets in defensive mode and heading for safety.

Today – Today’s data calendar includes US GDP, Jobless claims , PCE and speeches from ECB members and Fed Members.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDRUB (+6.42%) Spiked to 80.99 high  MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 72.88 & rising. H1 ATR 0.54430, Daily ATR 1.32211.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /314171/
via IFTTT

AUDUSD, H4 | Potential Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.72469Pivot: 0.71675Support: 0.70948Preferred Case:On the H4 timeframe, price is moving within the ascending channel signifying an uptrend. We see potential for a bounce from our pivot at 0.71675 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st resistance at 0.72469 in line with swing high resistance. Prices are trading above our Ichimoku cloud support, further supporting our bullish bias. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 0.70948 in line with the swing low support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-potential-bounce"
via IFTTT

Dollar Up, Euro Falls Against Safe-Havens as Russia acts to “Protect” Ukraine

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-up-euro-falls-against-safehavens-as-russia-acts-to-protect-ukraine-2770724
via IFTTT

Euro skids versus safe-havens as Ukraine tensions ramp up

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/euro-skids-versus-safehavens-as-ukraine-tensions-ramp-up-2770692
via IFTTT

NQ1! H4 | Bearish Dip

Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 14372.25Pivot: 13842.25Support: 12724.25Preferred Case: Price has recently broken through a key support level and near pivot level of 14034 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially dip to the support level of 13624 in line with the horizontal swing low support . Our bearish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicatorAlternative Scenario:Price may go to 1st resistance level of 14407 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals:Stock futures continue to cripple under growing pressure due to the escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia. With sanctions proposed by the respective countries , NASDAQ will certainly continue its downtrend.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nq1-h4-or-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT

ZB1! H4 | Potential For Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 154'09Pivot: 152'21Support: 151'15Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 152'21 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to the 1st resistance of 154'09 which is also the graphical swing high level. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading above the clouds Alternative Scenario:Price can dip to the 1st support level of 151'15 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals: With the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict , numerous countries has step forward to implement sanctions in hope that it will act as a deterrence for a full on invasion. However, conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate. This caused the prices of 10 year T-bonds to increase as investors flock to safe haven assets.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/zb1-h4-or-potential-for-bullish-continuation23"
via IFTTT

XAUUSD! H4 | Potential For Bullish Continuation!

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 1934Pivot: 1879Support: 1855Preferred Case:With price moving above our Ichimoku cloud, we may see a rise from our pivot of 1879 in line with the horizontal swing overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement to 1st resistance of 1934 in line with the -61.8% Fibonacci expansion level. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1855 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support.Fundamentals:Russo-Ukraine tensions seemed to tighten, the precious metal is likely to continue its uptrend as investors rush to safe haven assets such as gold .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xauusd-h4-or-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
via IFTTT

USD30, H4 I Potential Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 34968Pivot: 33400Support: 32418Preferred Case:On the H4, with price bouncing off the stochastics indicator, we can expect bullish continuation from our pivot at 33400 in line with the horizontal swing low support towards our 1st resistance at 34968 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 32418, which coincides with the ascending trendline and 127.2% Fibonacci extension

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usd30-h4-i-potential-rise23"
via IFTTT

Investment Bank Outlook 23-02-2022

CitiEuropean OpenGeopolitics took a backseat as risk sentiment remained calm post the European close. Headlines of US Secretary of State's Blinken stating the widely anticipated meeting with Russia’s Lavrov was cancelled did little to move markets. DXY, equities and oil remained somewhat flat post European close, with UST markets closed for a Japanese holiday. The highlight, rather was the RBNZ decision early in the Asian session, in which they hiked the OCR by 25bps to 1% and announced QT. NZD gained, as NZD 2y swap rate rose by 11bps. AUD wage price index printed in line with expectations. However, given the elevated expectations for the print, Aussie OIS markets were down a touch. THB saw some restrictions easing for foreign tourists, causing a swing higher in THB towards the Europe open.Looking ahead, we will continue to keep a close eye on developments amid Russia-Ukraine tensions. GBP will see a slew of speakers today, starting with Bailey, Broadabent, Haskel and Tenreyro at 09:30 GMT, and Tenreyro once again at 17:00 GMT. Over on the EM front, we will see TWD IP at 08:00 GMT, BRL inflation at 12:00 GMT and ARS Economic activity at 19:00 GMT.We flag that JPY and RUB are on holiday today.–In FX, we remain positive on the G10 commodity exporters, notably AUD, as we think the commodity exposure and valuations outweigh their risk sensitivity. Geopolitical risks and higher oil prices suggest increasing the share of EUR in the funding mix for now.Price action saw DXY grind higher yesterday. UST markets were closed in Asian trading due to a Japanese holiday. Equity markets were up a tad in Asian trading, following a rebound post the European close. Meanwhile, oil prices traded steadily after dipping in the European session yesterday. We note that Brent was trading close to the $100 handle yesterday during European hours.Credit AgricoleAsia overnightHaving weighed up the sanctions western governments have levied on Russia, investors are feeling a little more relaxed about events in Ukraine. The sanctions so far are short of the worst that could have been used such as embargoes against Russian exports and denying Russian entities access to the USD payments system. Instead, the US has placed sanctions on Russia sovereign debt and Russian elites and Germany has halted the approval of Nord Stream two.These sanctions could be ratchetted up, however. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has cancelled his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Larov due for Thursday this week, as the US Administration believes Russia has begun invading Ukraine. The US has said it remains open to diplomacy, however, and it appears the lines have been drawn for negotiations between Russia and the West. Most Asian bourses as well as S&P500 futures were trading higher at the time of writing. Outside of the NZD, it was a quiet Asian session for G10 FX. A hawkish RBNZ led to the NZD outperforming during the session.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-23-02-2022"
via IFTTT