Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.6997Pivot: 0.693Support: 0.6878Preferred Case:Price is near to the pivot level of 0.693 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. It can potentially rise towards the 1st resistance level of 0.6997 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion. Our bullish bias is supported by price trading above the ichimoku cloud indicator.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price might drop to the 1st support level of 0.6878 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection, along with a graphical swing low support.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-potential-for-bullish-bounce"
via IFTTT
Thursday, March 31, 2022
Soybeans Future (ZS1!), H1 Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 1679'4Pivot: 1667'4Support: 1623'6Preferred Case:With price expected to reverse off the Ichimoku resistance and the descending trend line, we see the potential for bearish drop from our Pivot level at 1667'4 in line 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level at 1623'6 in line with the horizontal swing low support.Alternative Scenario:If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 1st resistance level at 1679'4 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance.Fundamentals:No major news.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybeans-future-zs1-h1-bearish-drop"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybeans-future-zs1-h1-bearish-drop"
via IFTTT
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H1 Potential for Bearish Dip!
Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 746'6Pivot: 740'4Support: 732'2Preferred Case:We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our Pivot at 740'4 in line 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 732'2 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level.Alternative Scenario:Price might move towards the 1st resistance level of 746'6 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:No major news.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/corn-futures-zc1-h1-potential-for-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/corn-futures-zc1-h1-potential-for-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
Ligth crude oil Futures (CL1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Dip!
Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 108.74Pivot: 100.05Support: 94.45Preferred Case:Prices are consolidating in a triangular pattern. We see the potential for a dip from our pivot at 100.05 which is a graphical overlap and in line with an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 94.45 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection.Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 108.74 which is a graphical swing high and in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals:Biden Administration stated its intent to release around 1m bbl/day of oil from the SPR to ease the inflation situation in the country. As TA and FA are supporting conflicting news, we would ask investors to exercise prudence when trading the commodity
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ligth-crude-oil-futures-cl1-h4-potential-for-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ligth-crude-oil-futures-cl1-h4-potential-for-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
Silver Futures (SI!), H1 Potential For Bounce
Type: Bullish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 25.055Pivot: 24.670Support: 24.510Preferred Case:Prices have bounced off We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our Pivot at 24.670 which is a graphical swing low towards our 1st resistance at 25.055 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Prices are trading above our Ichimoku cloud support, further supporting our bullish bias.Alternative Scenario:If prices were to reverse, they can potentially reach our 1st support at 24.510 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals:With inflation still being an issue in the west and stalemate circumstances in the Russo-Ukraine crisis, we might still expect bullish upside on the commodity.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-futures-si-h1-potential-for-bounce"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-futures-si-h1-potential-for-bounce"
via IFTTT
Gold Futures (GC!), H1 Potential For Reversal!
Type: Bullish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1965.9Pivot: 1933.7Support: 1921.3Preferred Case:Prices have consolidated in an inverse head and shoulders pattern. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1933.7 which is the break of the inverse head and shoulders neckline towards our 1st resistance at 1965.9 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci Projection . Our bullish bias is further supported prices trading above our Ichimoku clouds .Alternative Scenario:If prices were to reverse, they can potentially reach our 1st support at 1921.7 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:With gradual settlement of war-negotiations, we might expect a slight bearish turn towards the precious metal.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-futures-gc-h1-potential-for-reversal"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-futures-gc-h1-potential-for-reversal"
via IFTTT
USDCHF H4 | Potential For A Rise
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.92986Pivot: 0.92224Support: 0.91622Preferred Case:On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the support of the stochastics indicator and the descending channel, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.92986 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from our pivot at 0.92224 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for support at 0.91622 in line with the swing low support.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdchf-h4-or-potential-for-a-rise31"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdchf-h4-or-potential-for-a-rise31"
via IFTTT
Daily Market Outlook, March 31, 2022
Daily Market Outlook, March 31, 2022 Overnight Headlines US Weighs Oil Release To Combat Inflation, Considering 1M Bpd, Totalling 180M Beijing Moves To Strengthen Moscow Ties In Wake Of Ukraine Invasion Ukrainian Negotiator: Side’s Will Resume Peace Talks Online On April 1 Britain's Spy Chief: Russian Soldiers Refused To Carry Out Orders In Ukraine Russia Plays Down Progress In Peace Talks, Intensifies Attacks In E. Ukraine China's Factory Activity Contracted On Covid Resurgence In March Japan's February Factory Output Rises For First Time In Three Months White House Plays Down Yield Curve Inversion As US Recession Indicator Biden May Invoke Defence Production Act For Electric Car Battery Metals Fed’s George: We Must Move Expeditiously To Neutral Funds Rate Euro Holds At One-Month High, Yen Set For Worst Month Since 2016 FCA Extends Crypto Registration Deadline For 12 Firms In U-Turn Japan's 10-Yr Bond Yield Rise After BoJ's Expanded Intervention Oil Prices Tumble More Than $5/Bbl As Biden Weighs Massive Release OPEC+ Technical Committee Replaces IEA With Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Germany Claims Putin Is Backing Off Demand For Ruble Gas Payments China Stocks Weaken On Manufacturing Data And US Shares FellThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mixed to lower as the first quarter draws to a close. Chinese stocks underperformed as the latest PMI surveys were weaker than expected. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 and the non-manufacturing index declined to 48.4, both below the 50 growth/contraction level. Lockdown measures in parts of China to tackle Covid outbreaks will probably weigh further on the PMIs next month. Meanwhile, oil prices fell after reports that the US is considering releasing a million barrels a day from its strategic reserves. The Lloyds Business Barometer, released earlier today, showed a fall in UK business confidence of 11 points to 33% in March. It was the biggest one-month drop since the early days of the Covid 19 pandemic and brings confidence to an eight-month low, but it remains above the long-term average of 28%. The report also reveals that both pay and price inflation pressures are continuing to build, which will likely maintain the pressure for further interest rate increases by the BoE at least in the near term. Separately, the ONS revised up Q4 GDP growth to 1.3%q/q from 1.0%q/q. Consumer spending growth, however, was revised lower and the savings ratio fell. In Europe, further signs of rocketing inflation mainly due to accelerating energy costs will be in evidence today. Yesterday saw preliminary March CPI inflation estimates (EU-harmonised measures) for both Germany and Spain far exceeding consensus forecasts, with annual rates rising to 7.6% and 9.8% respectively. Earlier this morning, France reported an increase in its March annual inflation rate to 5.1%, also stronger than expected. Italy will reveal its data later this morning. It means that tomorrow’s Eurozone flash annual CPI estimate will be well above the original consensus forecast for 6.7% and probably higher than even our initial forecast for 7.3%. Although high inflation predominantly reflects imported costs, there will even intense discussions among ECB rate-setters whether to increase interest rates before the end of the year after the likely end to QE in Q3. The ECB’s Chief Economist Lane is scheduled to speak today. The US data focus today will be on personal spending figures and the PCE deflator (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) for February, ahead of tomorrow’s labour market report. The PCE deflator is forecast to show annual inflation rising to 6.5%, a 40-year high providing further confirmation that near-term inflationary pressures remain intense. Consumer spending growth is expected to normalise to around 0.5% after a stellar outturn in January. Overall, a buoyant labour market is supportive of the consumer, but high inflation has weighed on sentiment.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.1000 (3.15BLN), 1.1050-60 (634M) 1.1070-80 (1.19BLN), 1.1100-05 (1.67BLN) 1.1110-15 (658M), 1.1120-25 (880M), 1.1130-35 (453M) 1.1150-60 (896M), 1.1175 (501M), 1.1195-05 (2.6BLN) 1.1230 (337M) USD/JPY: 121.60-70 (740M), 123.50 (455M) 124.00 (350M) GBP/USD: 1.3195-00 (693M) USD/CAD: 1.2500 (658M). AUD/USD: 0.7400 (500M) 0.7500 (1.73BLN), 0.7550 (579M), 0.7600 (445M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.12 Bullish above Maintains firm tone in Asia as recovery extends EUR/USD opened +0.66% at 1.1158 as weak USD and short-covering underpinned After trading 1.1156, the EUR/USD extended its recovery to trade at 1.1185 Heading into the afternoon it is settling around 1.1165 EUR/USD trending higher with the 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in a bullish alignment Resistance is at the 55-day MA at 1.1197 and 61.8 of 1.1495/1.0806 at 1.1231 Support is at the 10-day MA at 1.1047 and break would ease upward pressure EUR/USD may consolidate gains ahead of EZ inflation data and US jobs on FridayGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.3350 Bullish above. Busy end to Q1 – softer as EUR/GBP demand weighs -0.1% at the base of a 1.3125-1.3145 range with consistent strong flow EUR/GBP climbed 0.2% with very strong morning activity on D3 Brent -5% $108 - Biden plans largest ever oil reserve draw Should oil settle below $100 it would calm aggressive inflation expectations Charts; positive momentum studies - 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edge gently lower 21 day Bollinger bands contract - modest negative signals at familiar levels First major support is 1.3000 2022 low and 1.2990 lower 21 day Bolli band Asian 1.3145 high, then 1.3195/00 892 MLN strikes initial resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 120 Bearish below USD/JPY steady in Asia after recent volatility, 121.83-122.45 EBS Repatriation and trade flows mostly done at fiscal year-end In gradual rise from 121.32 low yesterday, ascending 200-HMA 121.63 Resistance from 55/100-HMAs at 122.60/63, hourly Ichi cloud above Option expiries in area today - 121.60 $670 mln, 122.00-05 $305 mln US yields soggy, Treasury 10s @2.332%, 2s @2.286%, weighs on USD Nikkei off after open, recovers, now -0.2% @27,977 Some govt jaw-boning on FX but shrugged off Eyes turning to US jobs report out tomorrow, NFP +490k eyed Most JPY crosses mirror USD/JPY EUR/JPY bid with EUR/USD, Asia 136.03-84 EBS, above 134.90 low yesterdayAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7300 Bearish below Heavy tone as AUD – cross selling caps rallies AUD/USD opened unchanged at 0.7510 after AUD fell against EUR, JPY and NZD It fell to 0.7492 when USD/JPY gains led USD higher Buyers returned when Dalian iron ore jumped 4% and AUD/USD traded 0.7528 It fell quickly from the higher and is back below heading into the afternoon AUD/USD is struggling to rally as investors unwind long AUD/EUR and AUD/JPY Support is at the 10-day MA at 0.7482 and break would suggest top is forming Resistance is at the Oct high at 0.7555 and break would reenergize trend higher
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-march-31-2022"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-march-31-2022"
via IFTTT
Tesla Market Cap Returns to $1 Trillion
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) so far this week has gained 8.8% after the company announced it wanted to pay dividends in the form of additional shares by splitting its stock. The proposal has been approved by the company’s board and shareholders will vote at the annual meeting that has yet to be scheduled. If the stock split is approved, it will be the first stock split since the August 2020 five-for-one split made Tesla’s stock more affordable for employees and investors.
The electric car company, which debuted in 2010 at $17 per share, continues to be regarded by many critics as a failure, although it is currently trading above $1,000 per share. After the stock split in 2020, the stock price jumped 128%, increasing the market cap to $1 trillion once again and making the company the largest automaker in the US, after it dropped below $1 trillion in December 2021, following concerns that the stock’s valuation was inflated and due to the exercise of stock options by its CEO and co-founder Elon Musk. Tesla’s market capitalization dwarfs the total existing automaker sector, which includes Ford, GM and Volkswagen.
Its electric cars are among the most popular and the company has shipped nearly a million each year while increasing production in the US and Europe, despite competitors such as Ford and Rivian entering the market and giving consumers several new options.
The start of 2022 for Tesla hasn’t been great for investors who are seeing their holdings dwindle, as price action drops to test $710. This decline is part of a price correction near the 61.8% FR level, so traders anticipate buying opportunities around the price level there. Currently the price is near the resistance at 1115.43 and has the chance to move further to 1207.88 and peak at 1243.21. There was more bad news on the announcement that Tesla’s factory in Shanghai would be closed for several days in light of the new lockdowns introduced in areas of China affected by the latest wave of COVID-19.
On the downside the 1000.00 level is a possibility that could be tested and price orders may indicate liquidity is in the area.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.
from HF Analysis /324292/
via IFTTT
Wednesday, March 30, 2022
Copper Futures (HGK2022), H1 Bullish Bounce
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 4.8060Pivot: 4.7385Support: 4.7020Preferred Case:Price is near pivot level of 4.7385 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially bounce up to the 1st resistance level of 4.8060, in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci extension, along with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator.Alternative Scenario:Price might continue to drop towards the 1st support level of 4.7020 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection.Fundamentals:No Major News
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/copper-futures-hgk2022-h1-bullish-bounce"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/copper-futures-hgk2022-h1-bullish-bounce"
via IFTTT
Coffee Futures (KCK2022), H4 Bearish Dip
Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 219.25Pivot: 217.20Support: 212.45Preferred Case:We see the potential for bearish reversal from our Pivot level at 217.50 in line 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st Support at 212.45 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator.Alternative Scenario:If price continues to go up, it can potentially move towards our 1st Resistance level at 219.25 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals:No Major News.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/coffee-futures-kck2022-h4-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/coffee-futures-kck2022-h4-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
EURUSD, H4 | Potential for Bearish Reversal
Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.12191Pivot: 1.11375Support: 1.10394Preferred Case:We see the potential for a bearish reversal from our pivot level of 1.11375 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 1.10394 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is at resistance level.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price might continue to rise up to 1st resistance level of 1.12191 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-or-potential-for-bearish-reversal30"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-or-potential-for-bearish-reversal30"
via IFTTT
AUDNZD, H4 I Potential Rise
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.08758Pivot: 1.07881Support: 1.07195Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1.08758 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 1.07881 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.07195 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audnzd-h4-i-potential-rise"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audnzd-h4-i-potential-rise"
via IFTTT
CHFJPY, H1 I Potential Rise
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 131.888Pivot: 130.866Support: 130.432Preferred Case:On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the support of the stochastics, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 131.888 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from our pivot of 130.866 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot and head for 1st support at 130.432 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/chfjpy-h1-i-potential-rise"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/chfjpy-h1-i-potential-rise"
via IFTTT
XRPUSD, H4 | Potential For Bounce
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.92Pivot: 0.85Support: 0.83Preferred Case:Prices are abiding by an ascending trendline and on bullish momentum. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 0.85 which is in line with 127.2% Fibonacci Projection towards our 1st resistance at 0.92 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 0.83 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xrpusd-h4-or-potential-for-bounce"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xrpusd-h4-or-potential-for-bounce"
via IFTTT
S&P 500, H4 | Potential for Dip
Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 4646.93Pivot: 4621.66Support: 4512.86Preferred Case:Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 4621.66 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 4512.86 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb higher towards our 1st resistance at 4646.93 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-h4-or-potential-for-dip"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-h4-or-potential-for-dip"
via IFTTT
Daily Market Outlook, March 30, 2022
Daily Market Outlook, March 30, 2022 Overnight Headlines Russia: De-Escalation Not A Ceasefire; Talks Have Long Way To Go Russia-Backed Donetsk Republic May Consider Joining Russia, Says Leader Japan Feb Retail Sales Post First Decline In 5 Months On Omicron Curbs New Zealand Business Confidence Improves In March According To ANZ Fed’s Bullard Favours Raising Fed Rates Above 3% By End Of This Year Fed's Harker: Expects Series Of ‘Deliberate, Methodical' Rate Rises Senate Prepares Confirmation Vote For Lisa Cook As Fed Governor Economists Now Predict Multiple Half-Point Rate Hikes In Canada German Econ Experts Significantly Lowers GDP Est To 1.8%, Lift CPI To 6.1% Yen Pulls Back From Precipice As Traders Fear Intervention From BoJ BoJ Notches Up Defence Of Yield Cap With Bigger, Unscheduled Bond Buying Bitcoin Takes A Pause From Sharp Recovery Rally As Bulls Regroup Oil Climbs After Two-Day Drop As Investors Assess Ukraine Talks Wall Street Rallies On Hopes Russia, Ukraine Can Resolve Conflict Morgan Stanley Will Launch An ETF Platform Later This Year M. Stanley’s Head Of US, EU Credit Strat: Ukraine-Russia Rally Is A ‘Blip’ Stock Surge Is a Bear-Market Trap With Curve Inverted, BofA Warns Northrop To Gain $59Bln Over 6-Yrs For Bomber, Missile Air Force PlanThe Day Ahead Reports that Russia is de-escalating military operations around Kyiv have further buoyed market risk sentiment, although the Kremlin said it does not amount to a ceasefire and it was met with some scepticism in the US. Equities in the Asia-Pacific region are mostly trading higher, with the notable exception of Japan where the yen recouped recent losses. Rising U.S. yields are also dragging Japanese government bond yields in their wake, a threat to Japan's ultra loose monetary policy. The Bank of Japan increased its efforts to defend its key yield cap on Wednesday offering to ramp up buying of government bonds across the curve including through unscheduled emergency market operations. While this apparently underscored its resolve to hold to the policy, the question now becomes whether the strategy is sustainable? The widening differential between U.S. and Japanese yields have caused the yen to weaken sharply, but it managed to regain some lost ground on Wednesday. Eurozone inflation, as elsewhere, has risen significantly in recent months, even before the war in Ukraine which has highlighted Europe’s dependency on Russian gas and other energy imports. The conflict has the potential to drive Eurozone annual headline inflation rates sharply higher from the already elevated 5.8% in February. The March ‘flash’ CPI estimate is due on Friday, but key national inflation data will be released ahead of that including Spanish and German figures today, followed by France and Italy tomorrow. In particular, the national prints will be watched closely for signs that the Eurozone flash CPI in March will jump up by more than the consensus forecast of 6.7% (central forecast is 7.3%). ECB Chief Economist Lane this week sought to play down the massive spike in inflation, emphasising that it is an imported price shock (given Europe is a net energy importer) rather than a reflection of domestic inflationary pressures, and that inflation will be ‘a lot lower’ next year. Still, current uncomfortably high levels of inflation will likely result in significant pressure from more hawkish ECB members for interest rates to rise before the end of the year. There are a few ECB speakers today, including a speech from President Lagarde who is visiting Cyprus. Eurozone economic confidence indicators due this morning are forecast to fall. In the UK, BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent is scheduled to speak this morning on “the MPC at 25”. Broadbent has always voted with the majority on the MPC, so his views on the policy outlook will be closely listened to. The BoE has sounded more cautious about prospects for further policy tightening given increasing economic uncertainties and headwinds. Governor Bailey noted this week that there were signs that demand is slowing. The Lloyds Business Barometer for March will be released early tomorrow and will provide an update on business confidence which has so far held up much better than consumer confidence. The second estimate of Q4 GDP is also due tomorrow morning and will provide additional detail on the extent to which consumers may be drawing down savings to cushion themselves from the impact of higher prices. There are also some US Fed speakers in the schedule, including a virtual speech from Kansas City Fed President George (voter) to the Economic Club of New York. The third estimate of US Q4 GDP is due, as are China PMIs early Thursday morning which may show impact from strict lockdown measures to combat rising Covid case numbers.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.1000 (2.44BLN), 1.1050-60 (1.8BLN) 1.1100 (2.17BLN), 1.1150-55 (1.36BLN), 1.1195-00 (1.64BLN) USD/JPY: 122.00-05 (690M), 122.50 (250M), 122.90-00 (1.0BLN) GBP/USD: 1.3100-05 (630M). USD/CAD: 1.2450 (550M) 1.2475 (350M), 1.2500 (718M), 1.2525 (730M), 1.2550 (317M) AUD/USD: 0.7600 (360M). USD/CHF: 0.9240 (360M) 0.9250-55 (280M), 0.9350 (200M) EUR/CHF 1.0340-50 (952M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.12 Bullish above Moves higher on the back of USD/JPY sell off EUR/USD opened +0.90% after getting a boost from Russia/Ukraine optimism After dipping to 1.1080 it tracked higher when USD/JPY started to fall Heading into the afternoon it is close to the session high around 1.1115 EUR/USD approaching key levels that will determine short-term direction Resistance is at double-top at 1.1137 and 50% of 1.1495/1.0806 at 1.1150 A break above 1.1160 could see recovery extend to 61.8 of move at 1.1231 Support is at the 10-day MA at 1.1033 and 21-day MA at 1.1005GBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.3350 Bullish above. Bid amid inflation fears and a soft U.S. dollar +0.05% in a tight 1.3091-1.3108 range with a softer USD and consistent flow UK retailers raise prices by most in nearly 11 years - BRC Highlights inflationary pressures, keeps heat on the BoE to raise rates COVID equipment may be the next scandal for the UK government Charts; momentum studies - 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages edge south 21 day Bollinger bands contract - mixed signals have turned bearish The first major support is the 1.3000 March and 20220 trend low 1.3132-62, 5, 21 and 10 day moving averages initial resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 116 Bearish below JPY crosses fall more on heavy repatriation flows USD/JPY and JPY crosses fall more in Asia on heavy repatriation flows Bounce from 121.98 New York low into Asia, high 123.20 into Tokyo fix News BoJ to up amount to cap JGB 10s @0.25%, expand maturities helped Rally met by heavy Japan fiscal year-end repatriation flows, exporter sales USD/JPY ratchets down to 121.32, near ascending 121.27 200-HMA Residual repatriation, exporter sales for FY-end may be seen tom too Some option expiries nearby - 121.00-05 total $636 mln, 122.00 $590 mln US yields ease off in Asia, Treasury 2s to 2.312%, 10s to 2.343% Nikkei off but AXJ mostly up, Nikkei -1.6% @27,792, E-Minis -0.2% @4618 JPY crosses off with USD/JPY, some repatriation flows, commodities lowerAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7100 Bearish below Consolidates above 0.7500 as USD eases led by USD/JPY AUD/USD opened +0.20% at 0.7507 after USD broadly weakened on Ukraine optimism AUD/USD traded in a 0.7504/25 range in Asia and is steady around 0.7510 Most of the action was in the USD/JPY with it falling below 1.2200 The USD merely traded with an offered tone against other currencies AUD/USD resistance is at 0.7540 and the Oct trend higher at 0.7555 Support @ the 10-day MA at 0.7469 and break would suggest momentum is waning A break below 0.7450 targets the 21-day MA at 0.7377
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-march-30-2022"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-march-30-2022"
via IFTTT
Apple Rises 11 Days in a Row, Best Record Since 2003
After starting 2022 with a left move, Apple stock (MT5 DMA: #Apple) is seen gaining upward momentum once again. Apple shares have been seen rising for 11 consecutive days since March 15, the longest series of gains for Apple shares since 2003.
The fall in stock prices especially in the technology sector in 2022 due to concerns of rising inflation, as well as pressures from world geopolitical issues, are now seen to have come to an end. Apple shares are now back to levels last seen in early January. Apple’s share price had found a floor at $150 a share in mid-March, after which it recorded a series of consistent and lengthy gains as investors returned to investing in the technology sector and demand continued to rise.
The 2022 highest price is at $182.87 which is now the Bulls’ target for the next test level. It is trading comfortably above the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA and is seen to still have momentum with the RSI-14 still below the overbought levels, while the daily MACD level is still below 0.
Fundamentally, Apple’s price increase is the best of all the tech stocks from the Trillion Dollar Club. The situation of Apple’s share price increase, which coincided with the Federal Reserve’s action which is now seen as aggressive in formulating policies to control inflation, as well as the 10-year yield increase which has reached 2.50%, is very rare and very interesting to study. Apple is currently trading at its 2022 opening breakeven at $178 per share. This has allowed the market value of Apple’s capital to rise again and approach the elusive figure of $3 trillion.
CNN Business is putting the next 12-month median price forecast for Apple at $193.50, with the highest price projected at $215 and the lowest at $160. Meanwhile the census results from 42 investment analysts put Buy as the top projection (27 analysts), with 6 analysts projecting Outperform, 8 analysts projecting Hold and only one analyst projecting Apple as Underperform.
With Apple set to complete its first financial quarter of 2022 this weekend, investors are seen increasingly optimistic that Apple will report earnings reports that exceed market expectations on April 27.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Tunku Ishak Al-Irsyad
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.
from HF Analysis /324115/
via IFTTT
Market Update – March 30 – USD Dips Stocks rally, Yen recovers,
USD & Yields dip and Stocks & Euro rally (NASDAQ 1.84%) following Russian-Ukraine negotiations. US data (Case-Schiller Housing Index, JOLTS & Consumer Confidence) all stronger than expected adding to high inflation and tight jobs market scenario. Yen recovered on chatter of BOJ intervention, and Oil & Gold dip before recovering. The yield curve extended it’s inversion as 10-yr yields dipped under 2.0% before lifting. Asian markets followed US higher (Nikkei & ASX +1.0%, Shanghai 1.51%).
Overnight – JPY Retail Sales missed (-0.8%% vs -0.3% & 1.1%) German regional CPI coming in hotter than expected ie North Rhine Westphalia March CPI +7.6% vs +5.3%.
- USD (USDIndex 98.16). Dipped further to 98.00 zone before recovering.
- US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.40% and under 2.0% overnight, now back to 2.36%
- Equities – USA500 +56.01 (+1.23%) 4631. US500 FUTS now at 4572 now. APPLE rose for an 11th consecutive day (+1.91%), HOOD up over +24% following AMC rally (+45%) day before and GME dropped -5.11% 45% as the meme stocks raised their heads again.
- USOil – Fell again (over 1.0%) to $98.65 yesterday, but has recovered $107.00.
- Gold – slipped to $1890 yesterday from Friday’s close $1955. Back to $1925 now.
- Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to top at 48.1K, yesterday, back to 47.4k now.
- FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1136 now after 1.0950 test Monday, USDJPY over 125.00 & new 7-yr highs Monday back to 122.00 now as JP Government signals worries over weak Yen. Cable back to 1.3120 now.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 43 ticks, US futures are also higher, DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.1% and up 0.1% respectively, as the initial euphoria over the positive headlines on the progress of Ukraine-Russia peace talks has faded. It still seems a long way to a final agreement and oil prices have backed up from lows under $100 seen in the wake of the initial headlines on the talks yesterday. Meanwhile concern that aggressive central bank action will sap the recovery is lingering. The 2-10 year part of the U.S. Treasury curve inverted yesterday for the first time since 2019, but while the 2-year has dropped back again since, 3 and 5 year rates are still holding above the 10 year. ECB chief economist Lane was out yesterday repeating that a rate hike in Q4 is not cast in stone and that rate moves will be data dependent.
Today – German CPI Prelim, US ADP & GDP (Final/Q4), Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bostic & George, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Broadbent
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.76%) Fear of BOJ intervention lifted YEN pairs. Next support 121.00 MAs turned lower, MACD signal line & histogram now below 0 line and cooling, RSI 36, H1 ATR 0.310, Daily ATR 1.31.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.
from HF Analysis /324076/
via IFTTT
Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Russia Sends Major de-Escalation Signal, Risk Assets Surge on Expectations of a Ceasefire
Progress in peace talks between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in Istanbul today has become the main driver of recovery moves in risk assets and Forex. One of the key signals of de-escalation was the statement by a representative of the Russian Defense Ministry that "the Russian Ministry of Defense will significantly reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernigov directions." The geopolitical premium in dollar unwinds, European markets react to the news with strong upside. European stock indexes rose by an average of 3.1%. Gold and oil also price-in major de-escalation expectations, declining by 1.6% and 3.8% respectively.The positive momentum was strong enough to offset disappointing German and French consumer confidence data, which reflected worries of EU households about high inflation and economic consequences of the war.The yield on 10-year Bunds, the main benchmark of cost of borrowing in the German economy, rose to the highest level in almost 4 years. Yield on 2-year Bunds climbed into the positive zone, reflecting concerns that the ECB will finally be able to breathe out and begin to catch up with the Fed in terms of policy normalization pace. This is also indicated by a less pronounced reaction of the yield of 2-year Treasuries to the surge in optimism:The Russian ruble made yet another strong intraday advance rallying to 83.50 against USD thanks to de-escalation signals and expectations of sanction pressure relief as the key demand of the West was cessation of hostilities.However, it’s important not to fall into the trap of the surge of optimism as fundamentally the gap in the pace of policy tightening between the Fed and Central Banks of other developed economies (EU, UK, Japan) remains quite wide. This week, a number of US labor market reports (ADP, JOLTS, ISM in services, NFP) will be released that could increase the chances that the Fed will accelerate the pace of rate hikes. Fed speakers (John Williams and Patrick Harker) will speak today, they can shed more light on the near-term path of the Fed policy which is likely to become more hawkish on the reduction of major uncertainty.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/russia-sends-major-de-escalation-signal-risk-assets-surge-on-expectations-of-a-ceasefire"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/russia-sends-major-de-escalation-signal-risk-assets-surge-on-expectations-of-a-ceasefire"
via IFTTT
HGK2022 (Copper Futures) | H1 Bullish Pressure
Type: Bullish PressureKey Levels:Resistance: 4.7730Pivot: 4.7000Support: 4.6415Preferred Case:Price is near pivot level of 4.7000 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise up to the 1st resistance level at 4.7730, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level.Alternative Scenario:Price might also dip towards the 1st support level of 4.6415 in line with a graphical swing low support.Fundamentals:No Major News
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/hgk2022-copper-futures-or-h1-bullish-pressure"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/hgk2022-copper-futures-or-h1-bullish-pressure"
via IFTTT
ZOK2022 (Oats Futures) | H1 Bullish Bounce
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 758'6Pivot: 738'0Support: 716'0Preferred Case:Price is near pivot level of 738'0 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially rise up to the 1st resistance level at 758'6, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further supported by price trading above the Ichimoku cloud indicator.Alternative Scenario:Price might also dip towards the 1st support level of 716'0 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals:No Major News
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/zok2022-oats-futures-or-h1-bullish-bounce"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/zok2022-oats-futures-or-h1-bullish-bounce"
via IFTTT
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL!), H1 Potential for Dip!
Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 114.35Pivot: 112.05Support: 107.92Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by our descending trendline resistance. We see the potential for a further bearish continuation from our Pivot at 104.45 in line graphical overlap, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 94.44 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by Ichimoku forecasting the bearish move.Alternative Scenario:If prices were to reverse, they can potentially reach our 1st resistance at 107.84 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection.Fundamentals:The lockdown of Shanghai, following a similar move in Shenzhen, casts doubt again on China’s approach to dealing with Covid-19 using the covid-zero strategy and its impact on oil demand from the largest consumer and importer of oil. This will support our bearish view on oil.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/light-crude-oil-futures-cl-h1-potential-for-dip29"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/light-crude-oil-futures-cl-h1-potential-for-dip29"
via IFTTT
Silver Futures (SI!), H1 Potential for Dip!
Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 25.140Pivot: 25.055Support: 24.690Preferred Case:Prices have recently bounced off a pivot and are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our Pivot at 25.055 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and graphical overlap towards our 1st support at 24.690 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Our bearish bias is further supported by prices trading below our Ichimoku.Alternative Scenario:If prices were to reverse, they can potentially reach our 1st resistance at 25.140 which is the next swing high.Fundamentals:With inflation still being an issue in the west and stalemate circumstances in the Russo-Ukraine crisis, we might still expect bullish upside on the commodity.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-futures-si-h1-potential-for-dip29"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-futures-si-h1-potential-for-dip29"
via IFTTT
The IndeX Files 29-03-2022
Risk Rebound Continues Amidst Russia-Ukraine Peace TalksRisk assets are again trading with a better tone this week with each of the benchmark equities indices track here in the green on Tuesday. The market has been rebounding firmly across recent weeks as traders continue to focus their optimism on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. The two sides are set to undergo a further round of talks this week with both countries expressing hopes for a resolution and an end to the violence. While talks so far have proved fruitless, the heavy losses suffered by both sides, as well as the toll of Western sanctions on Russia, is leading traders to hope for a compromise.Looking ahead this week, the main data focus will be on the US labour reports due on Friday. Following the prior month’s bumper set of figures, the market is expecting a somewhat softer reading this time around with expectations for a 485k result (down from 678k last time). Nevertheless, a reading in this region will still be bullish for USD particularly if the unemployment rate is seen falling further and wage growth continues to improve. The Fed has outlines its clear, hawkish intentions, along with the upside risks in its outlook. With this in mind, it would likely take a dismal set of results on Friday to derail the current USD move.Technical ViewsDAXThe recent rally in the DAX has seen the market breaking above the 14170.79 level. Price is now sitting just below the bear channel top and 14791.27 level. With both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a further break higher here targeting a move back up to 15636.39 next.S&P 500The rally in the S&P has seen the market breaking out of the bear channel from ATH and above the 4475.25 level. Price is now testing the 4575.50 level and, with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 4744 level next.FTSEThe FTSE has seen an explosive move off the 6818.3 lows. While momentum has fizzled out somewhat recently, the rally is still intact and with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher. The next challenge for bulls will be the 7558.7 level, ahead of the bull channel top and 7691.6 level.NIKKEIThe rally off the 24619.3 lows has seen the market trading back up to test the top of the large falling wedge pattern. Price is currently being held here (around the 28356.6 resistance). However, with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 29464.9 level next.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-29-03-2022"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-29-03-2022"
via IFTTT
Karel Komárek: the billionaire lottery winner
As birthday presents go, winning the lottery isn’t a bad one – or so Czech billionaire Karel Komárek observed after his company, Allwyn, emerged as the “preferred bidder” to run Britain’s national sweepstake, having wrested the prize from the incumbent, Camelot. But the deal isn’t quite in the bag – not least, notes the Financial Times, because Komárek’s broader KKCG empire owns a Czech oil and gas business that has a gas storage joint venture with Kremlin-controlled Gazprom, prompting “anxiety from MPs from across the political spectrum”.
A mystery man
Komárek, 53, is scrambling to undo these links, and has condemned Putin and the invasion of Ukraine via his social accounts. Even then, he may not enjoy a straightforward run, says The Daily Telegraph. Camelot, which has run the lottery since its launch in 1994, isn’t going quietly and may mount a legal challenge against the Gambling Commission’s decision, potentially lifting the lid on a bidding process shrouded in secrecy. Formerly known as the Sazka Group, Allwyn runs lotteries across Europe.
It apparently impressed with its “vow to launch a digital investment spree”, halve ticket prices, and double the amount the lottery makes for good causes. It assembled a roster of British business luminaries, including Sebastian Coe and Air Miles inventor Keith Mills, who both worked with Boris Johnson on the 2012 Olympics when he was London mayor.
Komárek can now expect to find his past dealings under the microscope. But “some of the suspicion” with which he is “viewed in certain British circles can be blamed on xenophobia” and his “relatively mysterious profile”, says the Daily Mail. The fitness fanatic is thought to be worth $7.8bn. He runs his empire from a palatial residence in Verbier billed as “one of the finest properties in the Alps”, which was valued at £28m when it was finished ten years ago and “rents for almost half a million pounds a week” when he’s out of town.
The seeds of his success began in the aftermath of Czechoslovakia’s 1989 Velvet Revolution. Komarek grew up in a twobedroom flat in the South Moravian mining town of Hodonin. He was 20 when the Iron Curtain lifted. With a $10,000 loan from his father, he set up a business selling industrial parts, quickly expanding into oil and gas supply. “When the Revolution came, I felt I was born for the second time,” he told Vanity Fair. “I was so naïve – I had no clue.”
He soon wised up in the rough world of post-Soviet energy markets, showing similar pragmatism when he moved into lotteries. Having taken a minority stake in the Czech national operator, Sazka, in 2011, he acquired it outright within a year and in 2013, took advantage of Greece’s parlous financial state to co-acquire its stake in the listed gambling operator OPAP. Deals to run lotteries in Austria and Italy followed.
An even bigger prize
Komarek’s KKCG empire now encompasses energy, tourism, property, technology, private jets, and biomedicine, as well as the burgeoning lottery and gambling business. Winning in Britain, which hosts the world’s fourth-largest lottery, could add another $10bn to Allwyn’s revenues, says the FT. But the company has its sights set on an even bigger market. In January, it announced plans for a $9.3bn listing in New York, via a special purpose acquisition company (Spac) backed by Gary Cohn, the former president of Goldman Sachs and Trump administration adviser. Lotteries, Komárek told Vanity Fair, are “probably the most interesting type of business I have ever been in”. He likes their potential to change lives – his own included.
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/people/604634/karel-komarek-the-billionaire-lottery-winner
via IFTTT
T-Bond Futures (ZB1!), H1 Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 149'12Pivot: 148'14Support: 146'14Preferred Case:With price expected to reverse off the Ichimoku resistance, we see the potential for bearish drop from our Pivot level at 148'14 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level at 146'14 in line with the horizontal swing low support.Alternative Scenario:If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 1st resistance level at 149'12 which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance.Fundamentals: Economic risks from inflation and tightening monetary policy causes bearish sentiments around the bonds market.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/t-bond-futures-zb1-h1-bearish-drop28"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/t-bond-futures-zb1-h1-bearish-drop28"
via IFTTT
Investment Bank Outlook 29-03-2022
Credit AgricoleAsia overnightSentiment was firm in the Asian session, following the first face-to-face peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials as well as the retreat in oil prices. The peace talks are generating hopes among investors of a ceasefire, and China’s movement restrictions continue to weigh on oil prices. At the time of writing, most Asian bourses and S&P 500 futures were trading modestly higher. The JPY was the biggest gainer in G10 FX on the back of further verbal intervention by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki as well as flattening in the UST curve. Despite strong Australian retail sales data, the AUD was the underperformer during the Asian session as AUD/JPY long positions were squeezed by the stronger JPY.USD/JPY: the Kuroda line becomes the Suzuki line Back in 2015, USD/JPY reached 125 and BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the JPY was unlikely to weaken further as it was already weak in real TWI terms. USD/JPY retreated and 125 became known as the “Kuroda line”. This line was crossed on Monday, and while the JPY is already weaker in real TWI terms than it was in back in 2015, Kuroda is not verbally intervening and is maintaining the stance that a weak JPY is good for the economy. Instead, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki is verbally intervening in the currency by saying he is scrutinising movements in FX and monitoring the negative economic effects of the JPY’s weakness. This division of labour will continue as FX policy is the domain of the Finance Ministry, which makes the decision on any physical FX intervention.The BoJ will remain focused on inflation and capping the JGB 10Y yield at 0.25%. We continue to closely watch the UST 2-10Y spread for guidance on the top in USD/JPY – at just +7-8bp the spread is close to inverting and a becoming a more significant drag on the exchange rate. Suzuki also made another interesting comment recently: Japan’s law does not allow the BoJ to confiscate the reserves of foreign central banks. We do not think Russia’s liquidating of its JPY reserves and exchanging them for USD has contributed to USD/JPY’s rally, however: (1) as of June 2021, Russian reserves with the BoJ were 6% of its total or about USD27bn; according to the BIS’s triennial FX survey, the average daily turnover in USD/JPY in April 2019 was USD1.1trn, and any liquidation of Russia’s JPY reserves would have been a drop in the ocean of USD/JPY’s daily flows; (2) such a transaction would have been in breach of USD sanctions implemented by the US; and (3) confiscation – ie, taking possession of – is vastly different from simply not allowing Russia access to its JPY reserves.CitiEuropean OpenRates markets continued to be in focus post the European close, as flattening pressures resumed. UST 2y yields popped 8bps higher in Asia, with the rest of the curve up 2-3bps. Equity markets held onto their gains seen post European close, while oil markets held steady following yesterday's declines. DXY saw a slight decline after an initial spike in Asia, with G10 currencies mostly in the green against the dollar. JPY gained, paring some of yesterday’s losses, as BoJ bond purchase operations saw better takeup. In the EM markets, KRW rallied on the back of corporate unloading of USD, and broad downside pressure on USDKRW from lower oil prices.Looking ahead, two days of talks with Russia in Istanbul are set to start today. USD will see Fedspeak from Harker, who is expected to be hawkish, after consumer confidence data. EUR also sees consumer confidence data.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-29-03-2022"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-29-03-2022"
via IFTTT
Three stocks to protect your portfolio from the energy shock
The Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries – a regional cousin of oil cartel Opec – discovered its tremendous pricing power in oil markets after the Yom Kippur War in 1973. That realisation, among other factors, helped usher in the stagflation of the 1970s and a lost decade for investors. In the latter half of 2021, we became concerned that Vladimir Putin had reached the same conclusion regarding natural gas in Europe. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia supplied 40% of Europe’s gas, and a higher gas price would mean higher European electricity prices and higher inflation.
A dearth of oil and natural gas exploration in recent years has exacerbated the issue. Similarly, the transition to a low carbon economy will be inflationary as productive energy capacity is taken offline and replaced with new renewable energy sources. The tragic events unfolding in Ukraine have reinforced these trends. These considerations helped inform our portfolio positioning as we came into 2022.
Let there be light
We hold a basket of renewable energy infrastructure funds, including NextEnergy Solar Fund (LSE: NESF), which look set to benefit from the current macroeconomic backdrop in two ways. First, around half of NESF’s revenues are derived from the sale of electricity. Electricity prices have increased fourfold over the past 12 months, and many renewable energy funds are beginning to lock in these prices via longer-term agreements. Its other source of revenue is government subsidies which, in the UK, are linked to the retail price index. The fund stands to profit from high inflation and any increase in long-term inflation forecasts will flow through to its net asset value (NAV).
A tried and tested inflationary hedge
SPDR MSCI Europe Energy ETF (LSE: ENGY) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) comprising the major European oil producers, including Shell, BP and Total. The European oil sector trades at seven times earnings, assuming a longer-term oil price of $80 per barrel. This level seems sustainable given rising annual demand and low levels of exploration. During the stagflationary period of the 1970s, the top performing stockmarket sectors were energy and materials. Technology and consumer staples – the stockmarket darlings of the recent past – lagged badly. This ETF could provide a hedge to such an environment.
Falling back on the basics
Taylor Maritime Investments (LSE: TMI) holds a portfolio of 30 modern dry-bulk carriers, which typically carry agricultural and industrial commodities. The market is under-supplied with these vessels and, unlike container ships, that shortage looks set to persist since few new deliveries are scheduled in coming years. This shortage translates to high charter rates: TMI’s portfolio is delivering average cash yields of 25% per annum, before depreciation. It has low leverage and trades at around a 10% discount to NAV.
Historically speaking, shipping has done well during periods of war, as war disrupts trade patterns, increasing shipping miles and therefore fleet utilisation. Dry-bulk carriers are also relatively insensitive to economic fluctuations since they transport staples such as grain, soybeans and iron ore. The fund targets a dividend of over 5% but has signalled that, due to elevated levels of cash generation, it may pay special dividends in the coming months.
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604612/three-stocks-to-protect-your-portfolio-from-the
via IFTTT
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish bounce!
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1687'6Pivot: 1660'4Support: 1646'6Preferred Case:With price expected to reverse off the stochastics support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 660'4 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection to our 1st resistance at 1687'6 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1646'6 in line with the horizontal swing low support.Fundamentals: No major news
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-bounce29"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-bounce29"
via IFTTT
XRPUSD, H4 I Potential Drop
Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.01Pivot: 0.91Support: 0.69Preferred Case:On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the stochastics resistance, we have a bias that price will drop from pivot of 0.91 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci projection to 1st support at 0.69 in line with the pullback support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1.01 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xrpusd-h4-i-potential-drop"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xrpusd-h4-i-potential-drop"
via IFTTT
Monday, March 28, 2022
Wheat Futures (ZW1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Dip!
Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 1759'2Pivot: 1070'6Support: 1637'4Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our pivot at 1070'6 which is a graphical overlap towards our 1st support at 1034'0 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1080'4 graphical overlap and in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals:No major news
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/wheat-futures-zw1-h4-potential-for-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/wheat-futures-zw1-h4-potential-for-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
T-Bond Futures (ZB1!), H1 Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 147'30Pivot: 146'27Support: 145'23Preferred Case: We see the potential for bearish drop from our Pivot level at 147'30 in line 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level at 148'24 in line with 78.60% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension is. Our bearish bias is supported by how price is moving below the Ichimoku indicator.Alternative Scenario:If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 1st resistance level at 147'30 which is in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing high resistance. Fundamentals: Economic risks from inflation and tightening monetary policy causes bearish sentiments around the bonds market.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/t-bond-futures-zb1-h1-bearish-drop"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/t-bond-futures-zb1-h1-bearish-drop"
via IFTTT
NZDUSD, H4 | Potential for Pullback!
Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.70056Pivot: 0.6987 Support: 0.6923Preferred Case:Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a pullback from our Pivot at 0.6987 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 0.6923 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Divergence is spotted on RSI, further supporting our bearish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 0.70056
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-or-potential-for-pullback"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-or-potential-for-pullback"
via IFTTT
USOIL, H1 | Potential For Bearish Dip
Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 113.112Pivot: 112.062Support: 109.008Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 112.062 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 109.008 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection. Ichimoku is forecasting the bearish dip.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, Prices might climb higher towards our 1st resistance at 113.112.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usoil-h1-or-potential-for-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usoil-h1-or-potential-for-bearish-dip"
via IFTTT
When to buy shares in Britain's worst bank
It’s hard to believe now, but UK banks’ share prices had a strong start to the year, up between 15% and 25% until mid-February. They reported results for the financial year ending December 2021 at the end of last month, with no obvious problems. We saw profits rebound and outlook statements suggest improving revenue and further capital returns to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. Then Russia invaded Ukraine and NatWest’s, HSBC’s and Lloyds’ share prices fell by more than 20% from their 2022 highs. Barclays has been hit even harder, down 30%. They have since rallied somewhat, but still remain down by between 12% (HSBC) and 22% (Barclays).
Direct exposure to Russia plays little part in this. UK banks have $3bn exposure to the Russian financial system, according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). While $3bn may sound like a lot of money, Austria (mainly Raiffeisen) has six times more exposure at $18bn. French (mainly Societe Generale) and Italian banks (Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo) have eight times more exposure at $25bn each. Societe Generale has said that it would be able to withstand the extreme scenario of having its Russian bank confiscated by the authorities, but so far banks have admitted losses that are in the tens of millions, not tens of billions.
Following the 2008 financial crisis, lenders are in much better shape to absorb losses, mainly because regulators demanded that they rebuild their capital ratios and fund with more equity. Excluding NatWest – which has sold businesses and shrunk total assets by a trillion dollars – the sector has now increased tangible equity funding by around $90bn in the last ten years. In total, UK banks have $420bn of equity to absorb losses. So while $3bn UK bank direct exposure to Russia might sound like a lot of money, it really isn’t compared with the equity on their balance sheets, and is much less than that of European competitors.
Reassuring results
Results for the 2021 financial year were reassuring. Bank profits have been in long-term decline, but recovered in 2021. This was driven by lower bad debts compared with 2020, because banks took large provisions at the start of the pandemic and found that bad debts weren’t as high as the worst-case scenario. Hence statutory profit before tax doubled at HSBC and trebled at Barclays. The two banks the government rescued in 2008 fared even better, with Lloyds increasing profit before tax sixfold and NatWest recovering from a loss in 2020 to report a £4bn profit.
All UK banks have profitability (as measured by return on tangible equity – ROTE) targets of 10% or above and the outlook statements (which were written before the Russian invasion) sounded more confident that these can be achieved. For instance, HSBC said that it was likely to achieve at least 10% ROTE in the 2023 financial year, a year earlier than it had previously expected. Barclays and Lloyds already exceed their targets, reporting 13.4% and 13.8% ROTE respectively. This was helped by each bank’s revenue performance, but also a £0.7bn impairment release for Barclays and a £1.7bn release for Lloyds.
NatWest announced a £750m buyback; Barclays £1bn and Lloyds £2bn. The Asian-focused banks (HSBC and Standard Chartered), which are reporting lower returns and were trading on lower price to tangible book multiples, announced $750m and $1bn buybacks respectively. However, those buyback announcements have done little to support share prices. Since the obvious exposures to Russia’s economy are manageable, it’s the secondary and tertiary effects that share prices are responding to, and that’s what we should be thinking about as well.
Central banks have been slow to tighten
Merryn interviewed Andy Haldane, previously the Bank of England’s chief economist, for the MoneyWeek podcast in July last year. Haldane worried that other central bankers were too relaxed about the risk of inflation and that its effects might not be transitory. In June last year he was the only member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) to vote to raise interest rates. He suggested that inflation could exceed the Bank’s 2% target for longer than most people expected, which would result in central bankers’ credibility being questioned.
Although central banks were slow off the mark in tightening policy, by the start of this year the strength of the post-pandemic economic recovery meant that most analysts were expecting to see steadily rising interest rates. You may be wondering: if interest rate rises have been expected, why the panic now?
Ultra-low interest rates are no good for banks, because banks make money from lending out their deposit funding. In normal times, customers’ deposits (which are liabilities on banks’ balance sheets) represent a cheap and stable source of funding. However, when interest rates are below 1%, banks don’t derive any benefit from this deposit funding, because there’s so much other liquidity freely available. As interest rates rise, banks will be slow to pass on the benefit to savings customers. Instead, net interest margins will widen (which is better for shareholders than it is for customers). As long as central banks are responding to a strong economy, rising interest rates are good news.
That was the bull case. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the oil price rising to over $120 per barrel has changed the outlook.
The threat of stagflation
HSBC warned in its annual report that “further increases in energy prices – for instance, as a result of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine crisis – could keep inflation high and force central banks to tighten monetary policies faster than currently envisaged”. During the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, oil peaked at almost $150 per barrel – trebling from the $50 per barrel it traded at in January 2007. At the time a wiser, older broker told me: “Oil has never trebled in value and not caused a recession”. It wasn’t different that time and it probably won’t be different this time.
The problem is that we may see consumers’ disposable incomes being squeezed by higher commodity prices, rising inflation and rising unemployment all at the same time. That is what happened in the 1970s and it’s known as “stagflation” (stagnation + inflation). History shows that while quantitative easing might have helped stimulate growth from 2008 onwards, central banks can’t print their way out of a commodity shock. Longer term, rising inflation combined with rising unemployment is unambiguously negative for banks’ share prices. Any benefit from higher interest rates would be wiped out by bad debts.
These are the risks that share prices are reflecting. And if we see stagflation, investors should avoid the sector altogether. But if these fears are overstated, there could be some value in banks at this point.
The case for NatWest – Britain’s worst bank
A common-sense investment strategy is to pick a sector with favourable long-term prospects and buy a company from that sector that has favourable economics. An example might be Halma or Spirax Sarco in the engineering sector.
When it comes to UK banks, common sense works less well. The “quality” bank with the best long-term record is HSBC, whose share price has halved in value in the last 20 years. It’s not much good to point out that in relative terms HSBC has done better than the competition: Lloyds and NatWest were part-nationalised and shareholders diluted by the government in 2008. Barclays has fared little better, with the shares down by 70% compared with 20 years ago. In short, banks have not been “buy and hold” investments. With that in mind, I would suggest a different, counter-intuitive approach: wait until the tide is on the turn and then buy the lowest-quality bank, which is NatWest.
Expectations are low: NatWest lost money for nine consecutive years following the financial crisis. However, NatWest has essentially been three businesses i) a non-core shrinking “bad bank”; ii) good businesses that it was forced to sell as a result of receiving state aid (eg, Direct Line Insurance); and iii) a profitable core franchise. The years since the financial crisis have been dominated by the first two factors, but by their nature they have declined in importance and the core franchise should become more important.
NatWest’s annual report shows the bank should benefit by almost £1bn from a one percentage-point parallel shift in the sterling yield curve (that means short-term rates rise as the Bank of England raises the base rate, but the ten-year bond yield – which central banks don’t control – goes up by the same amount). That’s an automatic benefit equal to 25% of last year’s profit before tax of £4bn. As long as the yield curve remains upward sloping – meaning short-term rates (eg, 2%) remain lower than longer-term bond yields (eg, 4%) – some of that benefit is sustainable in future years.
Aside from the macro-economic background, there are still company-specific concerns. For instance, last year NatWest paid £466m of “conduct costs” for the financial year 2021, including £265m for money laundering for a Bradford jeweller that deposited £260m in cash, some in bin bags with a “musty smell”. Many of these problems were the result of cultural failings – and as the bank shrinks, it should become easier to avoid these hangovers from the past. Note also that the UK government still owns 52% (down from 97% in 2008), but not all of these shares are being placed on the market. Instead, NatWest is buying back from the government at the market price.
NatWest is trading on 0.5 times revenue and 0.6 times tangible book value. The forecast price/earnings ratio is less than six times forecast 2023 earnings, according to SharePad. That suggests investors believe it will deliver returns well below management’s target of 10% ROTE. But having shrunk its balance sheet by over £700bn in the last decade, the bank has been de-risked. The share price currently looks to be anticipating a very difficult stagflationary environment. The Ukraine war and sanctions may drive that scenario – but if we see commodity prices fall, that would be the signal the tide has turned, and would be the time to buy.
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/bank-stocks/604613/when-to-buy-shares-in-britains-worst-bank
via IFTTT
ETHUSD, H4 I Potential Rise
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels: Resistance: 3549Pivot: 3248Support: 3013Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 3549 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from our pivot at 3248 in line with the horizontal pullback support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 3013 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-h4-i-potential-rise28"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-h4-i-potential-rise28"
via IFTTT
Market Update – March 28 – Yen, Oil & Stocks Dive as BOJ Remains “Ultra Loose”
BOJ announced unlimited bond buying policy, but yields still rose and YEN crashed, pulling down Asian stock & Oil markets, also hit by a strict 11-day lockdown in Shanghai (27 mill.). The US Treasury 5-to-30-yr yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2006, history suggests slowdown & possible recession. US 10-yr back over 2.5%. USD bid. APPLE talks of long-term subscription model moving away from selling products, as it reduces supply of iPhone SE & AirPods.
Biden & Blinkin “clarify” – “Putin cannot remain in power” comments, Zelensky talks of neutrality but insists on geographic integrity, walking back earlier comments. Russian & Ukrainian negotiators to meet in Istanbul later. Israel hosts 4-Arab states & Blinkin, NK tests more ICBM’s. Japan tightens FX laws and Crypto loopholes to sanction Russia.
Week Ahead – US NFP (380k), US, UK and Canada GDP and many central bankers’ speeches.
- USD (USDIndex 99.14). closed Friday 98.85. Friday’s US data weak (Pending Home Sales at 2-yr low & Consumer Sentiment at 11-yr low)
- US Yields 10-yr up to 2.53% currently & new 3-yr highs, from Friday’s close 2.492%
- Equities – USA500 +22.90 (+0.51%) 4543. US500 FUTS now at 4519 now. (Closed up +1.8% last week – Nasdaq best performer last week +2.0%.
- USOil – Fell to start the new week to $108.94 now – from Friday’s close at $112.50
- Gold – slipped to $1935 now, from Fridays close at $1955.
- Bitcoin breaks up 4.4% from the 42k-45K range to $46,800 now.
- FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.0950, unable to hold breach of 1.1000, USDJPY over 123.00 & new 7-year highs and Cable back to 1.3130 now, from over 1.3200 on Friday.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -78 ticks at 157.87, underperforming versus Treasuries. A lockdown in Shanghai weighed on the CSI overnight and left oil prices lower, while the Ukraine war’s drag on Europe’s energy costs is set to remain extremely high, with the resulting spike in the cost of living hitting consumers and consumption trends in many countries. In the UK that has already become apparent and last week’s budget offered not enough relief to soothe concerns. DAX and FTSE 100 are up 0.056% and 0.054% respectively at the moment. A cautious start for stocks then into a data heavy week that brings the final round of Eurozone confidence numbers for March and preliminary inflation reports that are likely to look ugly.
Today – ASEAN summit, US 2yr and 5yr supply, Trade Goods Balance & US Inventories. Speech from BoE Governor Bailey.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.98%) Big move against JPY today, continues trend of weaker YEN. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram strong but cooling, RSI 71, OB but rising, H1 ATR 0.281, Daily ATR 1.120.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.
from HF Analysis /323474/
via IFTTT
GBPNZD, H4 I Potential Drop
Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.91543Pivot: 1.90271 Support: 1.8844Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below our Ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will drop from pivot at 1.90271 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement to 1st support at 1.8844 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:On the H4, with price moving below our Ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will drop from pivot at 1.90271 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement to 1st support at 1.8844 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpnzd-h4-i-potential-drop"
via IFTTT
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpnzd-h4-i-potential-drop"
via IFTTT
CF Industries: One of the Gainers Out of the Sanction Game?
“Fertilizer prices were already high before the war. They have now reached record levels amid a precipitous drop in Russian supply… The result is that fertilizer is about three to four times costlier now than in 2020” – Jon Emont and Silvina Frydlewsky, Wall Street Journal writers
Sanctions against Russia following its invasion on Ukraine have further intensified commodity and food shortages. Among them, a prohibition on Russia’s natural gas export does not solely hurt the oil market, but there is also a ripple effect towards the agricultural sector. This is because natural gas is a key input in the production of fertilizer, which is used by farmers to boost crop production.
According to financial research firm CFRA, more than 1/3 of the world’s potash production, a key ingredient in fertilizer, is controlled by Russia and its ally Belarus, while the former alone controls 14% of nitrogen-based plant food production. Although the US is less dependent on Russia’s fertilizer, which accounts for only 9% of imports, as it has its own robust domestic production, prices going higher is unpreventable because price increases in the world market are likely to translate into similar price increases in the US market.
Based on the latest reported data, the fertilizers price index, which takes into account the weighted average of natural phosphate rock, phosphate, potassium and nitrogenous prices, stands at 196.86, up more than 96% from a year ago. It has even exceeded prices seen during the food and energy crisis in 2008.
A robust global demand and skyrocketing prices of crop nutrients may continue to benefit manufacturers and distributors of agricultural fertilizers such as CF Industries. The company mainly makes nitrogen, which has the biggest volume and nutrient volume out of the NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, potassium). Recent news shows that CF Industries is currently increasing fertilizer shipments amid prolonged supply disruptions. Plant maintenance work of the company has had to be postponed until the second half of the year to meet growing demand. As the production rate may be less effective then, it will take some time to alleviate the supply shortages; consequently input prices remain at high levels, as do the company’s share values.
Technical Analysis:
Technically, #CFIndustries remains traded on a strong bullish trend since its rebound from the lows at $19.68 seen on 15th March 2020. After two years, as of its close on last Friday, total accumulated gains have exceeded 450%. Candlestick remains attached to the upper line of Bollinger band, indicating trend continuation. In the near term, resistance to watch lies in the $114.45-$119.30 range, followed by $126.50. On the contrary, the middle line of Bollinger band at $94.90 serves as the nearest support. Breaking below the support may extend the bearish momentum towards the upper line of ascending channel, and confluence zone $82.60-$84.30.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Larince Zhang
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
from HF Analysis /323475/
via IFTTT
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
-
The new strain of covid found in South Africa could disrupt plans by governments and central banks to rebuild economies. Financial markets a...
-
Fidelity “FIS” is a global financial services technology company and a leader in providing technology solutions to merchants, banks and cap...
-
Asian Equities Sink on Covid FearsIt’s been a mixed start to the week for global equities benchmarks with US and European asset markets rema...
