BTCUSD – Hits two-week high above 32k

BTCUSD, Day

Cryptocurrencies have taken a dip this week, with BTCUSD hitting a new two-week high of $32,228 after ignoring the strong rally in the stock market last week prompted by the clarity in the minutes of the FOMC meeting and the easing of the lockdown measures in major Chinese cities, which will allow production to resume and could see consumer spending skyrocket.

As for yesterday’s movement, BTCUSD closed up more than 8%, ETHUSD 10% and XRPUSD gained more than 7%.  The rise this week and a break of the two-week $30,000 zone seems to mark the end of the bottom of the Bitcoin price. However, in the technical overview the price is still stuck in the downtrend channel frame. This is consistent with the movement of indicators like the MACD, which is still significantly below the 0 line, and the RSI, which is below the 50 level. And as seen in the Day timeframe, Bitcoin may be forming a strong pattern. If the price fails to break above the $33,000 zone, we may see the price swing back down again and continue the bearish flag. There is significant support in the low zone at $26,600. Conversely, if the price is able to rise above $33,000, there will be the next resistance around the $40,000 figure.

Traders will be keeping an eye on the movement of the US stock market as it returns from a long weekend. Will it be able to maintain the uptrend momentum from last week?

Click to view  economic calendar 

Chayut Vachirathanakit

Market Analyst

Warning: This content is provided for general marketing communications. For informational purposes only. and is not considered independent investment research. No part of this communication consists of or should be considered to contain investment advice or investment solicitation or solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling any financial instrument All information is collected from reliable sources. And every data contains an indicator of past performance. It is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future performance. Users should be aware that any investment In leveraged products, there is some degree of uncertainty. And investments like this are associated with high risks. for which the user is solely responsible We are not responsible for any loss. arising from the investment using the information generated by this communication This communication must not be reproduced or redistributed. without our written permission.

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USDJPY, H4 | Potential For Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 128.843Pivot: 127.896Support: 127.15Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices breaking above the ichimoku indicator and breakout from descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 127.896 where the horizontal overlap resistance is to our 1st resistance at 128.843 in line with the swing high resistance, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 127.15 where the horizontal overlap support is.

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GC1!, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1867.4Pivot: 1839.8Support: 1830.8Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices bouncing off the ichimoku cloud and breakout from descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1839.8 where the horizontal swing low support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are to our 1st resistance at 1867.4 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance,61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1830.8 where the horizontal overlap support is.

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Market Update – May 31

Stock markets traded mixed. Overnight Chinese data showed a slowdown in the pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector. Beijing’s new policy support, which includes cash handouts for hiring graduates and support for internet companies’ offshore listings, supported the sentiment a bit. In the rest of the world though, inflation jitters returned and yields spiked, with Australia’s 10-year up 8.5 bp and the German Bund yield lifting 1.0 bp to 1.06%. US Dollar stabilized as Treasury yields spiked.

European open:  Swiss economy stronger than expected at the start of the year. Official GDP numbers beat expectations and showed a quarterly growth rate of 0.5% q/q up from 0.3% q/q in Q4 last year. Services were still held back at the start of the quarter by virus restrictions, and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine won’t show in these numbers yet. SNB head Jordan warned that the fallout from the war and sanctions against Russia could mean stagflation risks globally, but still, with these numbers, the SNB’s negative interest rate environment will also be challenged.

• USDIndex recovered slightly to 101.79.
• Equities – Nikkei and ASX meanwhile closed with losses of -0.3% and -1.0% respectively as inflation jitters returned and yields spiked. GER40 and UK100 up 0.9% and 0.4%.
• Yields – US 10-year rate has jumped 9.4 bp to 2.83% as markets return from yesterday’s holiday.
• Oil – USOil spiked to $119.20 per barrel as demand expectations pick up and EU leaders agreed a partial ban on Russian oil.
• Bitcoin extended gains above 20-day SMA for the first time since April 7.
• FX markets – USDJPY lifted to 127.33, EURUSD down to 1.0734, Cable below the 1.26 mark.

Today – GDP from Switzerland and Canada for Q1, German unemployment, Eurozone HICP. US housing index, Chicago index and Consumer Confidence. The Biden-Powell meeting is also on tap.

Biggest FX Mover @ (08:00 GMT) EURUSD (-0.39%) declined to 1.0730 due to USD strength. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram zeroed, RSI 35 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00117, Daily ATR 0.00942.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Investment Bank Outlook 31-05-2022

CIBCFX FlowsDeputy Governor Hawkesby said RBNZ is forecasting a period of subdued consumption as higher rates impact some households, given that global and domestic risks, a recession is well within the realms of possibility. He added the economy is well placed to cope with high interest rates. New Zealand’s building permits fell to -8.5% from +6.2%, this is a volatile number but not market mover. NZ$ was bought at the beginning for NZ$¥. NZIER said RBNZ will raise OCR by 50 bps in July. However, things turned when US$ was bought across the board. Business confidence continue to decline in May to -55.6 while activity slumped to -4.7. NZ$ was pushed to 0.6525.Our macro strategist Patrick said his preference is to sell into any NZ$ rally with stop above 0.6625, the 50% retracement of the 0.6217-0.7034.Discussion within the desk, our trader Jon believes the RBA will be less aggressive than the RBNZ when comes to rate hikes. He prefers to short AU$NZ$. Spread between the 2-year AU-NZ yields also suggesting lower cross. Fade the rally to 1.1014 with stop above 1.1070.AU$ rose to 0.7103 after the Tokyo open then declined to 0.7163. China’s PMIs improved in May and this boosted the AU$ and the crosses. Good resistance around 0.7200-05 area, furthermore Death Cross developed in the daily chart. The only notable option strike is at 0.7171 for A$1.12bn due tomorrow.Month-end and the Japanese bought $YEN and the YEN crosses, only selling came from the retail day traders, who were taking profit. One US bank issued a note today that US$ has turned and exited its short $YEN position. They could be right because the momentum has been consistent past week, $1.2bn of options strikes at 127.50-55 due tomorrow should offer some support.European leaders have agreed to partial ban on Russian oil, sanctions would forbid the purchase of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia delivered to member states by sea but include a temporary exemption for pipeline crude. This covers more than 2/3 of oil imports from Russia. EUR$ backed off on back of stronger US$. Trendline resistance at 1.0799, likely to see some sellers emerge and stops 1.0855 thereafter. There are fair amount of downside strikes due today to take note of. Although distant, they are quite sizeable. More than €8.1bn worth of strikes 1.0590-1.0600.Oil futures are up but the greenback rules over the Loonie. Initial purchase of CAD¥ pressured the $CAD to 1.2653. Once that was done, the pair reversed back towards 1.2680s. Our macro strategist Bipan said the move below the 1.2700 handle suggests that we need to relax our call for a move to the 1.33 area for now. We still see price action resolving higher and above 1.30 over time, but we’ll need to be patient with that view. In the near-term, we expect levels to gyrate between 1.25 and 1.30. Also, the lack of an immediate catalyst this week suggests that the risk/reward in receiving OIS for BoC dates isn’t there. While we think terminal will reprice lower, and the Bank won’t go as aggressive as the market is pricing, we don’t envisage that to be the message at this week’s BoC.

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Daily Market Outlook, May 31, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, May 31, 2022 Overnight Headlines• China's factory activity falls at slower pace as COVID curbs ease• CN May NBS Manufacturing PMI 49.6, 47.4 prev; Composite 48.4, 42.7 prev, NBS non-Mfg PMI 47.8, 41.9 prev• China’s cabinet issues a series of policies to stabilize the economy- cabinet document• China’s cabinet: Will guide actual lending rates lower• EU, resolving a deadlock, in deal to cut most Russia oil imports• Japan's April factory output slumps in worrying sign for economy• JP Apr Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA, -1.3%, -0.2% f’cast, 0.3% prev; YY SA -3.3%, -0.8% prev• JP Apr Retail Sales YY, 2.9%, 2.6% f’cast, 0.9% prev, 0.7% rvsd• JP Apr Unemployment Rate, 2.5%, 2.6% f’cast, 2.6% prev; Jobs/Applicant Ratio 1.23, 1.23 f’cast, 1.22 prev• Biden highlights Fed inflation role ahead of Powell meeting on Tuesday• Fed's Waller backs 50 bps rate hikes until "substantial" reduction in inflation• POLL-U.S. house price inflation to cool as buyers sidelined by higher rate• Australia Q1 GDP up in the air as strong demand sucks in imports• AU Q1 Current Account Balance SA, 7.5 bln, 13.4 bln f’cast, 12.7 bln; Net Exports Contribution, -1.7%, -1.4% f’cast, -0.2% prev• AU Apr Building Approvals, -2.4%, 2.0% f’cast, -18.5% prev• AU Q1 Business Inventories, 3.2%, 1.0% f’cast, 1.1% prev• New Zealand business sentiment worsens as inflation remains intense, -55.6, -42.0 prevThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mixed this morning after yesterday’s gains. The easing of lockdown in Shanghai and better-than-expected PMI data underpinned Chinese stocks, but concerns about global central bank policy responses to inflation weighed on the broader market. Yesterday saw German May inflation rise significantly more than forecast to 8.7% on the EU-harmonised measure. Brent crude oil has risen above $124 a barrel, reflecting a partial EU ban on Russian oil imports. US 10-year Treasury yields increased by 10bp to 2.84%. The Lloyds Bank Business Barometer’s overall business confidence in May rose for the first time in three months, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it weakened in consumer-related sectors. The confidence index gained 5 points to 38%, while hiring intentions picked up and price and wage pressures remained elevated. Despite the confidence uplift, nearly half of businesses expressed concern about inflation or rising costs and about a third were worried about an economic slowdown. Later this morning, the Bank of England will release its latest credit data. Mortgage approvals may have edged lower in April from around 70k in recent months. Secured lending has continued to grow, while there has been a notable pickup in consumer credit, according to the BoE data. The BRC shop price index will be released in the early hours of tomorrow. The focus in the Eurozone will be on the flash estimate for CPI inflation in May. Yesterday’s surge in German inflation points to upside risks for Eurozone headline inflation to rise to a new high of 7.7%. The ECB is still doing QE but, in response to sharply rising inflation, President Lagarde has indicated that asset purchases will end in early July and that interest rate lift-off is likely to occur at its 21 July meeting with a 25bp increase, but more hawkish members will be calling for a larger rise. In the US session, markets will be looking for a fourth fall in five months in the Conference Board consumer confidence index. Expect the headline index to fall to 106.0, while the consensus forecast is for a deeper decline. Although the US labour market remains strong, real incomes are being dented by high inflation. US house price data will also attract attention as rising interest rates curtail activity in the sector.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0590-00 (8.31BLN), 1.0625-30 (1.57BLN) 1.0645-50 (1.3BLN), 1.0725-30 (490M), 1.0740-50 (650M) 1.0760 (854M), 1.0775-80 (590M), 1.0800 (1.12BLN) 1.0880 (1.12BLN) USD/JPY: 127.75-85 (740M), 129.65 (250M) GBP/USD: 1.2450 (878M), 1.2500 (258M), 1.2520-25 (615M) 1.2545-50 (3.82BLN), 1.2645 (2.29BLN), 1.2680 (835M) 1.2710 (303M) EUR/JPY: 133.50 (659M), 135.24 (240M) EUR/GBP: 0.8475 (270M), 0.8500 (551M), 0.8525 (205M) 0.8565-75 (570M, 0.8650 (244M)) AUD/USD: 0.7000 (615M), 0.7090 (261M), 0.7120-25 (660M) 0.7150 (238M) USD/CAD: 1.2660-65 (286M), 1.2700 (407M), 1.2800 (329M) NZD/USD: 0.6475 (426M), 0.6515 (233M) 0.6600 (797M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD traded to the exact point to fulfill a tech correction then dropped A 38.2% retracement drop from 2022 high 1.1495 to 2022 low 1.0349 is 1.0787 The target for a minimum technical correction of the down move was achieved May 30 EUR/USD reached 1.0787, then dipped, May 31 range 1.0734-77 EBS EUR/USD VWAP has turned bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP/USD has rallied from May's 1.2156 low to 1.2666 in June This is a minor correction of a major decline GBP/USD previously dropped from 2022 high at 1.3749 The drop that followed taper talk last year is 1.4250-1.2156 Targets for resumption that decline: 1.20 Daily VWAP has turned bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 127 Bearish below USD/JPY up 0.4%, rises to a more than 1-week high; Asia range 127.53-128.35 Boosted by higher UST yields; 10 year yield jumps 11 bps on inflation fears German inflation, oil rally raises specter of aggressive global rate rises Fed's Waller backs 50 bps hikes until "substantial" reduction in inflation EU agrees to cut 90% of Russian oil imports by year-end Resistance 128.30-35, 128.50-60, support 127.75-80, 127.50-55AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below Muted reaction to improved China PMI AUD/USD little changed around 0.7170/75 following improved May China PMI AUD/USD fell as low as 0.7163 before the data as USD broadly moved higher Rise in US yields and month-end USD buying flows weighed on AUD/USD

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Three funds to cash in on today’s real-estate megatrends

Professional investor Matthew Norris of the VT Gravis UK Listed Property Fund picks three real-estate investment trusts that track long-term themes.

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Transferring out of your final salary pension could cost you dear

Thinking about transferring out of a final salary pension? It could cost you a lot more than you might think, says David Prosser.

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Buy this ports operator and get a free hedge fund

This investment company is valued at less than its Brazilian ports and logistics assets alone

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GBPUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.26674Pivot: 1.26036Support: 1.25573Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator and the RSI indicator moving in an uptrend momentum, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.26036 where the horizontal overlap support is to our 1st resistance at 1.26674 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci projection and swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.25573 where the horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement are.

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GC1!, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1867.9Pivot: 1847.2Support: 1833.5Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku cloud and breakout from descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1847.2 where the horizontal pullback support is to our 1st resistance at 1867.9 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance,61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1833.5 where the horizontal overlap support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are.

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WTICOUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 130.356Pivot: 118.018 Support: 105.984Preferred Case:On the H4, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and within the ascending trend channel, which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 118.018 in line with the swing high and with the 78.6% fibonacci projection to the 1st resistance at 130.356 at the swing high . Additionally, presence of bullish presence pressure on the MACD indicator further supports our bullish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break the support structure at the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 105.984 in line with the swing low and 50% fibonacci retracement.

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SILVER FUTURES, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 23.504 Pivot: 21.943Support: 20.413Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, it supports our bullish bias that price will rise form the pivot at 21.943 in line with the overlap support and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 23.504 in with the 50% fibonacci retracement. Additionally, the presence of bullish pressure at current price on the MACD indicator further supports our bullish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break the support structure at the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 20.413 at the swing low.

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EURUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.0857Pivot: 1.07082Support: 1.05373Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku cloud and within the ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st overlap resistance at 1.0857 where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is from our pivot 1.07082, where price has recently bounced off.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.05373 in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement.

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Has the chancellor done enough to save the UK from recession?

UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a new package last week to ease the cost of living crisis. John Stepek explains whether the risk of a UK recession still remains.

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Chase Coleman: star hedgie hits the panic button

Chase Coleman got off to a sizzling start in the hedge-fund industry and became one of the biggest winners of the tech bull market. His fall from grace has been brutal.

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How the West can win Putin’s war on food

The West could easily make up the shortfall if it let the free market rip, says Matthew Lynn.

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Weekly Wrap-up with Stuart!

The US advance indicators report revealed a huge April pullback in the goods trade deficit from an all-time wide in March that shattered the prior record in January. We saw a big import drop after an outsized March surge and a big gain for exports, alongside an upside wholesale inventory surprise that more than offset a auto-restrained retail inventory gain. The trade figures faced an energy price pull-back in April after a massive March lift with the war in Ukraine.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Which companies will lose the most from the energy windfall tax?

The government’s new energy windfall tax has muddied the waters for investors and companies alike. Rupert Hargreaves explains how it might affect some of the sectors’ biggest companies.

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WHEAT FUTURES (ZW1!), H1 Potential For Bearish Bounce

Type: Bearish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 1170'2Pivot: 1159'0Support: 1121'4Preferred Case:With RSI moving in a downtrend momentum and price reversing off the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1121'4 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and horizontal overlap support from our pivot at 1159'0 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1170'2 in line with the pullback resistance, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:No Major News

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NIKKEI (OSE:NK2251!), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 62941Pivot: 62243Support: 61634Preferred Case:On the H4, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and within the ascending trendline which supports bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 26610 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the resistance at 27740 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement and swing high. Additionally, the presence of bullish pressure shown on the MACD indicator further supports our bullish bias.Alternative Scenario:Price may reverse and break the pivot and drop to our support level at 25660 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection .Fundamentals:No major news.

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AUDUSD, H1 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.72627Pivot: 0.70902Support: 0.69503Preferred Case:On the H1, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and price moving within the ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.72627 where the swing high is from our pivot at 0.70902 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break support structure and head for 1st support at 0.69503 where the horizontal pullback support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement are.

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Ocado faces a “crunch” year – should you buy or avoid?

Ocado was one of the big winners from the pandemic as customers moved online. But now it’s struggling, and losses are growing. So, asks Rupert Hargreaves, should you buy Ocado shares or steer clear?

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What to buy as the tech-stock bull market crashes

The decade-long bull market in tech stocks has come to a rapid halt. Investors need to distinguish solid stocks from speculative ones rather than just buying the dip, says Matthew Partridge

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Market Update – May 27 – USD 1-month low, Stocks Rally, Yields Ease

USD sinks to 1-month low (USDIndex 101.43) CB easing pressures absorbed, despite GDP slipping to -1.5% from -1.3% & Pending Home sales at -3.9% from -1.6%. Stocks had a very strong day on weaker USD (NASDAQ +2.68%) and Yields slipped. Asian markets followed US lead (Nikkei +0.66%, Hang Seng +2.07%) and European FUTS are higher.  BOJ’s Kuroda & PM Kishida, talk up YEN and want it stabilized and see core CPI at 2% for next 12-months.

• USDIndex sinks further to 4-week lows traes at 101.55. (-1.5% this week, after -1.37% last week)
• Equities – USA500 +79 (1.99%) at 4057, US500FUTS at 4050 now. Discount Retailers lead markets higher on good Earnings – Dollar Tree +21.87%, Macy’s +19%, Dollar General +13% TSLA +7% NVDA +5%
• Yields 10-year yield edged lower to 2.75% at close and trades at  2.76%. now   
• Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil rallied after a cautious week back to test over $114, trades at $13.70 now, Gold is holding over $1850, at  $1854.  
• Bitcoin continues to weaken under $30K – at $28.6k, having touched $27.9k yesterday.
• FX markets – EURUSD up to test 1.0750, breaching 1.0700 again, USDJPY capped  under 127.00, having tested 126.50 Cable to 1.2625, from 1.2540 yesterday.  

Overnight – JPY – Tokyo Core CPI in line, (1.9%) AUD Retail Sales  in line (0.9%)

Today – US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Consumption, Speech from ECB’s Lane.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.51%) gave up yesterday’s declines  to 0.6450 and retook 0.6500 today, trades at 0.6512 16-day high., MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & holds 0 line, RSI 65 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00104, Daily ATR 0.000777.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Will the rise of ESG investing cause stagflation?

ESG investing is booming. But it may be contributing to today’s stagflation – slower growth and higher inflation – says Tom Traill.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/esg-investing/604904/will-the-rise-of-esg-investing-cause
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Share tips of the week – 27 May

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604902/share-tips-of-the-week-27-may
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Investment Bank Outlook 26-05-2022

CIBCKey Headlines Market started with risk-on, lots of happy faces until mid-morning. US$ goes bid,, risk appetite turned negative… why? I think this is relief rally. Risk on at the start but there was no impetus. Australia Q1 capex was very weak. US equity futures are now in red so is Shanghai. My colleague Jacky pointed out that Nasdaq futures lowered after report that Apple will boost pay for workers, which is wage inflation.FX FlowsSpeaking at the parliament committee earlier, RBNZ Governor Orr said monetary conditions need to act to restrain, Kiwi economy is resilient but facing inflation challenge. Government spending puts short-term pressure on inflation, continue to project employment growth. Orr said can’t rule out recession but does not predict one. Orr later spoke on Bloomberg TV, reiterated about inflation expectations and will be watching it closely. All these from RBNZ hardly moved the market. Japanese bought YEN crosses over the Tokyo fix and sent NZ$ towards 0.64995.Decent buying of $YEN and the YEN crosses for the Tokyo fix and it didn’t stop there. $YEN continued to print higher towards 127.58. Risk is being put back on, 10-year UST yields rose, US equity futures gained so did the Japanese equity indices. UST yields led the way, moved lower and so did the $YEN. Strong $YEN bought during the Tokyo noon, no news whatsoever, spot returned to peep at 127.50.AU$¥ was bought for the Tokyo fix, as soon as that was over, the cross reversed back towards 90.20. AU$ also peaked at 0.7110 then backed off onto 0.70-handle. First quarter’s private capex fell 0.3% versus estimates to +1.5%, however firms plan to spend A$130.5bn in 2022/2023 against estimates of A$122.5bn while buildings and structures investments fell 1.7%. Intraday resistance comes in at 0.7147 which is the 38.2% retracement. AU$ call strikes 0.7120-25 for AU$650mio matures today.EUR$ slightly higher from where we took over, initial buying of EUR¥ reversed after the fix, price action was similar in EUR$. We are likely to be stuck in range of 1.0650-1.0750 from here. I read one report from a bank highlighting bear trend started again. The bank recommended going short EUR$ with target below 1.0250. Weak stops from short-term names under the yesterday’s session low. Near €1bn of 1.0600 puts transacted for Tuesday’s expiry. Nothing much maturing today, fair bit of strikes due tomorrow particularly 1.0650 and 1.0635. No ECB speakers today, de Cos will be presenting Bank of Spain annual report to parliament economic affairs commission.$CAD tracked closely to the commodity futures, most metals are weak especially after Chinese Premier Li’s gloomy rhetorical assessment of the lockdown-hit economy and the weakness seen in early indicators for May. In big picture, traders think the $CAD is sitting in range of 1.2650-1.2950. In March retail sales to be published today, consumer spending on services continuing to recover from the pandemic, a flattish trend in retail sales volumes should not be unexpected or a concern for the macro outlook. However, the continued squeeze on household incomes from high inflation could bring weaker goods spending in the second half of the year, particularly as the savings cushion becomes less plump.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-26-05-2022"
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ETHUSD, H1 | Potential Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Intermediate Resistance: 1988.76 Resistance: 2014.86Pivot: 1927.87Support: 1903.12Preferred Case:Price is moving within the descending trend channel and is approaching pivot level at 1927.87 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci projection and horizontal pullback support. We have a bullish bias that price may bounce off this confluence area and rise to our intermediate overlap resistance at 1988.76 in line with the 38.2% and 23.6% fibonacci retracements, or to our 1st resistance at 2014.86 at the swing high in line with 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Price may break pivot at the horizontal pullback support and drop to 1st support at 1903.12 at the swing low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-h1-or-potential-bullish-momentum"
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EURUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.07635Pivot: 1.06578Support: 1.05852Preferred Case:On the H4, price recently broke the descending trendline and is moving above ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.06578 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection, to our 1st overlap resistance at 1.07635 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Price may break pivot level and drop to 1st horizontal pullback support at 1.05852 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
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Market Update – May 26 – FOMC 100bp by July, USD Stable

USD stable today (USDIndex holds 102.00) following FOMC minutes that showed agreement by “most participants” for 50 bp hikes in June & July would be “likely be appropriate”, Stocks had a positive session (NASDAQ +1.50%) and Yields ticked up  as treasuries slipped. Asian markets mixed (Nikkei -0.27%) Shanghai reopening gradually the Port is 95% operational & schools from June 6.

• USDIndex rotates at  102.00 
• Equities – USA500 +37 (0.95%) at 3978, US500FUTS at 3967 now. NVDA +5% at close but missed Earnings -6.82% after hours.
• Yields The 10-year yield edged up to 2.781% and the policy-sensitive two-year yield was flat at 2.502%.  
• Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil steady after a cautious rally this week back up  to $110, Gold is weaker – broke below $1850, down to  $1846.  
• Bitcoin rotates under $30K – at $29.6k, having touched $28.6k yesterday.
• FX markets – EURUSD up to test 1.0670, breach of 1.0700 limited, USDJPY back over 127.00, at 127.25 Cable up to 1.2550.  

Overnight – RBNZ Orr – will move on rates quickly, JPY PPI beats at 1.7% vs 1.5%, World Bank says Russian invasion of Ukraine could cause “global recession”

Today – US GDP (2nd), US IJC, Canadian Retail Sales, UK Chancellor Sunak, Fed’s Brainard. Earnings from Alibaba, Baidu. Ascension Day holidays – Germany, France, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, & Norway all closed.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.26%) gave up yesterday’s gains and rejected 0.6500. Trades at 0.6440, support 0.6420 & 0.6400. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram turned negative but holds 0 line,  RSI 47 neutral, H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0080.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /471465/
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The Crypto Market Is Low, Oil Poised to Jump

Having dropped, the total crypto market cap has reached $1,15 trillion. At that, there was a strong correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock index S&P 500. The market cap has hit a very strong supporting level that has formed last summer. The crypto market is quite low now, and players are trying to buy the dips. Since the US dollar is likely to drop soon, different cryptocurrencies are about to jump. Although their price might also drop even further. The total market value of cryptocurrencies might decline by half from the current one.Gold is undergoing correction. The asset is likely to jump till the downtrend away from which it might potentially reverse and drop. So, it should be worth waiting to see what is about to happen next.Brent oil is testing the level of 115. Should the oil manage to break this level through, it might hit the level of 120.00 first, and then target the level of 138.00 next. Of course, oil might also undergo correction. However, the oil forecast is quite apparent for now due to the global happenings worldwide and current geopolitics.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crypto-market-is-low-oil-poised-to-jump"
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A fund that should give good returns from investing in good deeds

Schroders BSC Social Impact Trust has made a solid start and looks more attractive than it did at launch, says Max King.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604893/a-fund-that-should-give-good-returns-from-investing
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 128.11Pivot: 127.65Support: 127.009Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the Ichimoku cloud and the stochastic indicator moving in a downtrend channel, we have a bearish bias that prices will drop to our 1st support at 127.009 where the overlap support is from our pivot at 127.65 in line with horizontal overlap resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracementAlternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 128.11 where the horizontal overlap resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-for-bearish-continuation"
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AUDUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.72608Pivot: 0.7051Support: 0.69483Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku cloud and price breakout from the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.72608 where the 50% Fibonacci retracement is from our pivot at 0.7051 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 0.69483 where the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
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Wall Street’s sell-off has further to go

The current stockmarket sell-off has been led by tech stocks, but the pain is spreading. The bear market has further to go – US stocks are still expensive, and investors must be wary of relief rallies.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/us-stockmarkets/604905/wall-streets-sell-off-has-further-to-go
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China’s zero-Covid labyrinth

China’s zero-Covid policy will lead to an “extended period of sub-par growth” as constant lockdowns constrict its economy.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/china-stockmarkets/604903/chinas-zero-covid-labyrinth
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Marks & Spencer shares look cheap – should you buy in?

Marks & Spencer shares have been a disappointment for investors for two decades. But with the company now on something of a comeback, Rupert Hargreaves asks if it is worth buying in.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/retail-stocks/604901/marks-spencer-shares-look-cheap-should-you-buy
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S&P500, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 4301.57Pivot: 4080.88Support: 3812.69Preferred Case:On the H4, with MACD indicating a green bullish area, it supports our bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 4080.88 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance, to our 1st resistance at 4301.57 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Price may reverse and approach 1st support at 3812.69 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and swing low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p500-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 128.011Pivot: 127.083Support: 126.152Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that prices will drop to our 1st support at 126.152 where our horizontal pullback support, 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 100% Fibonacci projection are at froour pivot at 127.083 in line with horizontal overlap resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for the 1st resistance at 128.011 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation25"
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GC1!, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1884.9Pivot: 1851.9Support: 1831.6Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving above the Ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1851.9 where the horizontal overlap support is to our 1st resistance at 1884.9 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1831.6 where the horizontal overlap support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gc1-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
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NZDUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation25

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.65453Pivot: 0.64101Support: 0.62898Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku cloud and price breakout from the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.65453 where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance are from our pivot at 0.64101 in line with the overlap support. Take note of intermediary support at 0.63663 where the overlap support is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 0.62898 where the swing low support is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation25"
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Market Update – May 25 – Stocks Volatile, USD stable, NZD Surges

USD slipped again, but is  stable today (USDIndex 102.00), weak global PMI data & US data missed and Powell added to rate hike expectations meant Stocks had another volatile session (SNAP lost -43%, and other big tech stocks hit NASDAQ -2.35%) Yields down as treasuries firmed. Asian markets mixed (Nikkei -0.26%) RBNZ raised by 50bps & Gov. Orr had more hawkish outlook than expected (rates to 4%?) NZD surged. NK tested a range of missiles as Biden left Asia, Zelenskiy says Bombas situation critical,

• USDIndex down to 101.64 yesterday back to 102.00 
• Equities – USA500 -32 (0.81%) at 3941, US500FUTS at 3962 now. Snap lead some huge declines .
• Yields down, 10-yr closed at 2.76%, now 2.77%   
• Oil & Gold both had positive sessions – USOil back up  to test $111 Gold holds $1860 today, down from $1870.  
• Bitcoin rotates through $30K – but under today at 29.8k.
• FX markets – EURUSD up to test 1.0750, holds 1.0700, USDJPY down to 127.00, Cable up to 1.2540.  NZD off 5-week low at 0.6515

Overnight – Hawkish RBNZ, German Gfk missed, French Consumer Confidence missed.

Today – US Durable Goods, FOMC Minutes, ECB Financial Stability Review, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Panetta, Fed’s Brainard

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (-1.02%) Tanked from 1.6650 to 1.6425 on Hawkish RBNZ. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram turned negative crashing signal line  RSI 29, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.0043, Daily ATR 0.01413.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /470780/
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Flexible working: don't rush your staff back the office

The government is urging people to get back to the office. But there are good reasons for many small businesses to embrace flexible working.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/small-business/604864/flexible-working-dont-rush-your-staff-back-the-office
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Four high-quality US stocks to give shelter from the storm

Professional investor Timothy Parton of the JPMorgan American Investment Trust picks four solid US stocks to buy now.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604863/four-high-quality-us-stocks-to-give-shelter-from
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Three undervalued mid-cap stocks with attractive prospects

Professional investor Katen Patel of the JPMorgan Mid Cap Investment Trust picks three fast-growing mid-cap stocks to buy now.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604836/three-undervalued-mid-cap-stocks-with-attractive
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Gold (GOLD1!), H1 Potential For Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 51260Pivot: 50862Support: 50579Preferred Case:With prices moving above our Ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 51260 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and overlap resistance from our pivot of 50862 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 50579 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:Due to increasing inflation rates in both the US and UK, we have a bullish view on the precious metal.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-gold1-h1-potential-for-bullish-bounce24"
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U.S. Dollar Index Future ( DX1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 103.265Pivot: 102.380Support: 101.985Preferred Case:With price moving below the Ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 101.985 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection from our pivot at 102.380 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance in line with the overlap resistance, -27.20% Fibonacci expansion and 50% Fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:In the face of strong inflation , Bostic emphasized that two 50-bps raises at forthcoming Fed meetings are still realistic. We have a Mixed-to-Weak Bearish view on the index.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/u-s-dollar-index-future-dx1-h1-potential-for-bearish-drop"
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Investment Bank Outlook 24-05-2022

CIBCKey Headlines Risk is off, no one cared about JPM, it was all about Snapchat and the other social media platforms. FX traders paid close attention to US equity futures and then the UST yields. No fresh chicken for Singapore! Malaysian government announced it will halt exports of 3.6mio chickens a month from June 1.FX FlowsUS equity futures weak at the open, NQM2 is down 1.65% after Snapchat cut its revenue and profit forecasts below the low end of its guidance. Other social media platforms shares are also lower in after-hours trading. Snap’s CEO told employees that the firm plans to slow hiring this year to 500.Most commodity futures were weak during Asia morning. Which also placed some pressure on the commodity currencies.Market had expected New Zealand Q1 Retail Sales Ex-Inflation to gain 0.3% over the quarter but was disappointed with -0.5% and also lower revision to +8.3% from +8.6%. NZ$ did slip a little but not immediate, from 0.6459 to 0.6450. Was fairly quiet until US$ strengthened across the board. Further pressure after » Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand said 11-month milk collection fell 3.9% over the year.Australia May flash PMIs were softer than previous month. Manufacturing slipped to 55.3 from 58.8, S&P Global said output was affected by issues of Covid-19 disruptions and poor weather conditions. However, manufacturing demand remained robust. The firm said overall business sentiment remained positive. AU$ a tick lower, barely any damage. AU$ slipped further on weak US equity futures, thanks to Snap.Nice job in $YEN, Tokyo banks bid the pair higher for the usual Tokyo fix, then reversed back to 127.70. We didn’t stay down there for long. Investors turned their attention to the US Treasuries, yields went up and that took $YEN along as well. We understand that the Japanese retail guys are long and likely to fade the move up. The large strikes above have expired, this should smooth the move up and first resistance 128.50.EUR$ peaked at 1.0694, one reporter noted leveraged names reducing short after market broke 1.0620. We are likely to run into some resistance around 1.0700, nothing much thereafter unless we break 1.0755 then stop buy orders kick in. Despite the ECB hawks yesterday, Asia didn’t pay much attention. It was more about the risk sentiment and EUR$ drifted lower.Over in UK, railway unions will hold a vote today to walk out of every Tube station on Monday June 6. This will cripple the London Underground when millions of people return to work after the Queen’s jubilee weekend. PM Johnson’s photograph of him drinking with aides at a lockdown-breaking party in No 10 is all over the British media. I wonder what he will say to that? I guess nothing. GBP$ ended the morning lower, in line with the rest.Weak commodity prices, WTI July contracts ended the morning session lower, $CAD returned to 1.28-handle. Overall, low activity. Only interesting option strike is 1.2870 for $605mio. Later today we shall have the May economic mood index, previously 54.3.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-24-05-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, May 24, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, May 24, 2022 Overnight Headlines Quad Leaders Vow To Stand Together For Free, Open Indo-Pacific Biden: No Change To Policy Of Strategic Ambiguity On Taiwan US Trade Chief Tai: The US Must Be ‘Strategic’ On China Tariffs Fed's Bostic Suggests Pausing Rate Hikes In Sep To Assess Impact Fed's George Sees Policy Interest Rate Around 2.0% By August German Minister Expects EU Embargo On Russian Oil 'Within Days UK To Start Legislating Against Brexit Deal Within Three Weeks China Rolls Out Tax Relief, Construction Bonds To Spur Economy Beijing Covid Cases Drop As Capital Remains Under Restrictions Japan’s Factory Activity Grows At Slowest Rate In Three Months Oil Prices Ease On Recession Concerns, Weaker Consumption Asian Equity Markets Slip With US Futures, Euro Holds Gains Snap Leads After Hours Tech Rout After Issuing Profit Warning The Day Ahead Asian equity markets have fallen this morning despite yesterday’s gains in Europe and the US. Futures for the US are also down as reports suggest that tech stocks are leading the sell-off. A further rise in Covid cases in China and that yesterday’s optimism about a US tariff reduction on Chinese goods may be misplaced have also be cited as concerns. In the UK, Northern Ireland Secretary Lewis said that the government plans to introduce a bill to override the Northern Ireland protocol in the Brexit deal within three weeks. Just released data showed UK government borrowing for April, the first month of the new financial year, at £17.8bn. That was close to expectations and down from £23.4bn at the same point a year ago. Meanwhile, media reports suggest that Chancellor Sunak is preparing plans for a windfall tax on power generators and oil & gas companies. Today’s ‘flash’ estimates for the May manufacturing and services PMIs are potentially the most interesting releases of the week in the UK. While showing some evidence of slowing growth in the past couple of months partly as post-Omicron impetus begins to fade, both measures still point to continued growth. That means they seem more positive than official GDP data which showed no growth in February and a small fall in March. The May readings will again be impacted by the Ukrainian crisis and by Covid restrictions in China but, overall, expect another set of solid prints. Look for the manufacturing measure rising to 56.5 from 55.8 in April and the services measure down to 57 from 58.9. Eurozone PMI data will also provide indications of May economic trends. As in the UK, the Eurozone PMI data are still solidly in growth territory, expect that to once again be the case in May. However, look for both measures to be down from their April levels. In the US, PMI data tend to be less closely watched than the longer-running ISM surveys. However, those will not be available for another week. In the meantime, the US PMIs are forecast to show both manufacturing and services mostly still growing at a relatively strong pace. The latest New Zealand central bank policy update due early Wednesday is expected to result in the fifth increase interest rates. Rates have already gone up from a low last October of 0.25% to 1.5%. However, economists are split over the size of this week’s rise with a majority forecasting a second successive 50 basis point increase to 2% but some suggesting a smaller hike of 25bp. FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0370 (1.76BLN), 1.0435-40 (592M) 1.0445-50 (462M), 1.0480 (279M), 1.0540-50 (813M) 1.0585 (784M), 1.0600 (401M), 1.0650-55 (833M) 1.0740 (952M) USD/JPY: 127.00 (599M), 128.00 (405M), 128.50 (229M) 129.00 (631M), 130.00 (300M) GBP/USD: 1.2500 (378M), 1.2600 (302M) EUR/GBP; 0.8380-85 (256M) AUD/USD: 0.7135 (247M), 0.7245-50 (628M) USD/CAD: 1.2690-00 (326M) 1.2820-25 (258M), 1.2720 (225M), 1.2820-25 (410M) 1.2870 (605M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD has swiftly risen towards overbought territory It's unlikely to rise much further in the short-term 20-day two standard deviation is 1.0745 Consolidation likely, perhaps slide towards the VWAP 1.0535 Given importance of Jun ECB/Fed meets a lengthy consolidation possible EUR/USD VWAP has turned bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP nursing its topside breakout as it fails to extend above 1.2600 A negative session would damage prospects for a run into the 1.27s Still respect May 13 key day reversal but wary of fresh bearish signals 14-day momentum has flipped to bullish Daily VWAP has turned bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 127 Bearish below Correction of USD/JPY's overbought uptrend has stalled by 127.00-EBS Supports include late April lows, and 23.6% Fibo The minimum correction taken off 112.53-131.35 advance is at 126.91 Pressure from overbought daily RSIs has been relieved However, weekly and monthly studies remain top-heavy Bearish unless daily ranges are made above the 129.00AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD opened +0.84% at 0.7111 after USD fell and Wall Street soared It came under pressure early when E-minis opened around 1.0% lower Talk in street glut of China growth outlooks from major banks also weighed AUD/USD traded down to 0.7066 before settling at 0.7080/85 late morning Support is at 0.7041 A break below 0.6995 would put the trend low at 0.6829 in focus Resistance is at the 38.2 of the 0.7661/0.6829 move at 0.7146

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-may-24-2022"
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Six high-yielding funds for income investors to buy now

Rising interest rates are starting to make many popular income funds look less than attractive. Here, David Stevenson picks six that should weather the storm.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604888/six-high-yielding-funds-for-income-investors-to-buy
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How to ask for a pay rise

A higher salary is the best way to combat the cost of living crisis. Ask for a pay rise now, says Ruth Jackson-Kirby.

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Investment Bank Outlook 23-05-2022

Credit AgricoleWeekly FX OutlookUSD: In the near term, the USD should remain supported by the relative outperformance of the US economy that will allow the Fed to normalise policy more quickly. The USD should further benefit from its role as a liquid safe-haven currency during recurrent bouts of risk aversion. Medium term, we expect the US economic outperformance to become less pronounced and the Fed to embark on gradual policy normalisation, which could keep US real rates and yields negative. This, coupled with central bank tightening outside of the US, could encourage diversification flows out of the USD, especially given lingering concerns about the US twin deficits and the USD’s overvaluationEUR: The war in Ukraine has fanned stagflation headwinds in the Eurozone and should continue to complicate the ECB’s plans for policy normalisation and weigh on the EUR across the board. It will further have lasting consequences for the Eurozone’s international competitiveness, external position, relative real yields and commodity terms of trade. Our analysis based on our long-term fair value model G10 VALFeX suggests the long-term EUR/USD value can drop to 1.1130 from 1.1950 at present and thus signals a much less constructive FX outlook. Many negatives seem to be in the price of EUR/USD and its outlook in the coming months could stabilise in part thanks to the repatriation of funds held abroad into the Eurozone to fund the growing domestic outlays. We also think that the overhang of EUR[1]shorts in the markets can help the single currency benefit from future bouts of risk aversion especially as its rate disadvantage is diminished by the ECB’s policy normalisation.GBP: The GBP could remain an attractive stagflation and risk aversion hedge for now. Soaring energy costs, labour market shortages, global supply chain disruptions and persistent Brexit-related headwinds continue to plague the UK economic recovery and thus complicate the BoE’s ability to normalise in the face of uncomfortably high inflation. This could keep UK real rates and yields very negative and weigh on the GBP in the near term. In the longer term, the undervalued GBP may recover as UK growth hurdles ease and this allows the BoE to hike rates more aggressively. That said, the war in Ukraine as well as idiosyncratic risks related to Brexit or a potential indyref2.0 should make the UK’s economic recovery much less robust than we expected previously.JPY: Going forward, we believe the threat of and any actual FX intervention as well as further UST yield curve inversion will constrain USD/JPY upside. We are not confident in a speedy resolution to the Ukraine crisis, however, and so higher oil prices will remain a weight on the JPY along with Haruhiko Kuroda’s dogged adherence to the BoJ’s YCC. A gradual changing of the BoJ Board’s make-up will start in July when new members will potentially open the discussion of the adjustment of YCC, however.AUD: While the start to RBA rate hikes is a positive for the AUD, we think the AUD will struggle to move higher against the USD. The RBA is being outgunned by the FOMC and while China is pledging support for its economy including looser fiscal policy and a big infrastructure spend up, it will take longer than usual for this to give the economy a boost while the government pursues its zero-Covid strategy and lockdowns.NZD: While the RBNZ is being forced to hike rates aggressively by strong inflation, the negative terms-of-trade shock from the Ukraine crisis, weakening Chinese growth as well as rate hikes are weighing on the local economy. These factors will curtail NZD appreciation due to a hawkish RBNZ.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-23-05-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, May 23, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, May 23, 2022 Overnight Headlines Pounded By Russia In The East, Ukraine Rules Out Concessions White House Adviser: US Economy Is In A ‘Period Of Transition’ Lagarde Signals That July Is Likely Liftoff Date For ECB Rates UK Housing Market Frenzy Shows Signs Of Slowing: Rightmove Beijing Sees Record Covid Cases, Reviving Lockdown Concerns Anthony Albanese Leads Labor To Australian Election Victory RBA’S Kent: Currently Has No Plans to Sell Bonds in Portfolio Dollar Wobbles Lower As Chinese Growth Hopes Lift Aussie Oil Prices Climb In Tight Market As US Driving Season Looms Asian Equity Markets On A Mixed Footing; US Futures Rise Broadcom Reportedly In Talks To Acquire Cloud Firm VMwareThe Day Ahead Equity indices are mostly trading higher across the Asia Pacific, albeit stocks in China and Hong Kong continued to fall as record numbers of new Covid cases in Beijing raised concerns of a broad lockdown across the capital, in adherence with China’s stringent Covid policy. US equity futures are also trading higher, although this follows seven weeks of decline and overall equity sentiment remains soft. There are still a few weeks to go before the next set of announcements from the European Central Bank (9th June), US Federal Reserve (14th June) and BoE (15th June). In the meantime, comments from policymakers will continue to be examined closely for clues on their intentions. The US Fed’s message is clearest with its policymakers united in indicating that for now they are more concerned about inflation and that, as result, 50 basis point increases in interest rates are likely in both June and July. However, with the recent fall in equities generating some of the required tightening in financial conditions that the central bank is trying to achieve by raising interest rates, there are questions of whether some Fed members may start to point to the need for a lower peak in interest rates. Later today, Fed members Bostic and George are scheduled to speak and any indication of a wavering in hiking intentions will be closely watched for. Recent ECB comments indicate that an increasing number of policymakers and, possibly a majority, now favour or are open to an interest rate hike at the 21st July policy update despite ongoing economic uncertainties. Minutes of their April meeting released last week noted that several policymakers were ready to move rates at that point. But that obviously was not true of the majority and the consensus now seems to be building around using the June update to signal a July move. A number of ECB officials are due to speak over the course of the day, including De Cos, Nagel, Holzmann and Villeroy. The last two will be speaking about “The Return of Inflation” at an event in Vienna, alongside BoE Governor Bailey. Data wise, today’s German IFO survey for May will provide an update on economic trends. Since the war in Ukraine started, the index has fallen below its long-term average, and as expected a further modest fall this month. Early tomorrow morning, monthly UK public finance data for April will be released. While the figures are the first for the new fiscal year (2022/23), they will be watched for indications of the leeway for the government to offer extra support to households. As concerns about the ‘cost of living squeeze’ have intensified, there have been growing calls for action and recent media reports have suggested a package may be introduced before the parliamentary recess in July. Potential measures that have been talked about include further specific support for fuel bills and a temporary cut to VAT.CFTC Data(Reuters Data) USD IMM net spec Fell in May 11-17 period as the $IDX dipped 0.61% EUR$ +0.24% in period, specs bottom-fish add 3,810 contracts to long Yen net short -8,145 to -102,309 contracts; $JPY -0.85% in period GBP specs +357 contracts now -79,241; GBP$ rose 1.47% in period AUD, CAD, kiwi specs sold in period; AUD short now 2,928, CAD -14,496 Bitcoin specs buying recent dip, +103 contracts now long 806; BTC -3% in periodFX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut USDJPY - 131.00 500m. 130.00/20 1.17bn (744m C). 129.80 750m. 128.90/129.00 1.53bn (1.06bn P). 128.00/20 2.80bn (1.77bn C). 127.00 465m. EURUSD - 1.0600 963m. 1.0450 1.25bn (787m C). 1.0400 2.61bn (P). 1.0350 471m. 1.0250 584m. AUDNZD - 1.0960 1.87bn (1.72bn C). EURJPY - 139.50 2.27bn (1.48bn P). USDCNH - 6.61 638m. 6.48 590m.Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above Resistance is at the 38.2% of the 1.1185/1.0349 move at 1.0668 EUR/USD stopped trending lower and will likely consolidate in a range More short-covering possible if US yields continue to move lower EUR/USD VWAP flattening Support seen at 1.0470/50 break would encourage a retest of cycle lowsGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. Cable rises to 1.2572 after Biden says considering reducing tariffs on China 1.2572 is highest level since May 5 (BoE MPA day) Biden steer has lifted equity futures, GBP is risk-sensitive GBP/USD strength follows biggest weekly rise since Dec 2020 1.2578 was London morning high on May 5, before BoE's UK recession warning Bailey takes part in panel discussion on monetary policy/inflation 1415 GMT Offers at 1.25 daily VWAP remains bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 127 Bearish below USD/JPY earlier swoon from 128.05 to 127.16 EBS Exporter, option-related, offshore fund and day-trader sales Stops sub-127.50 too, all in rather thin market Bounce into Europe, London underway, pair back up to 127.91 Uptick in US yields helped, Treasury 10s from 2.797% to 2.842% Market still seen heavy 128.00+, massive option expiries above Today to see $2.8 bln between 128.00-25 strikes, more aboveAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD opened around 0.7055 and after dip to 0.7046 it tracked higher E-minis popped up close to 1.0% and helped to lift risk currencies AUD/USD received added support from a near 4% rise in Dalian iron ore Heading into the afternoon it is 0.5% higher at 0.7085/90 AUD support coming from optimism China will continue to support the economy Sellers at 0.7100 with resistance at 38.2 of 0.7661/0.6829 move at 0.7146 Support is at .7000

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-may-23-2022"
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Market Update – May 23 – USD Dips, Stocks remain pressured

USD slipped again, Stocks had a torrid day on Friday, but recovered in final hour, Bear market talk dominates weekend press. Asian markets rise, after improvements in Shanghai covid news as isolation times are reduced, but record cases in Beijing.  Biden in Tokyo, offers olive branch to Kim, says US recession “not inevitable” and is willing to us force to defend Taiwan.  AUD & NZD rally on new Aussie PM.  

• USDIndex down to 12-day low at 102.6 and 5th down day of last seven.
• Equities – USA500 0.57 (0.005%) at 3901, US500FUTS at 3952 now.
• Yields down 10-yr closed at 2.788%,  Trades up at 2.79%   
• Oil & Gold both had positive sessions –  USOil rallied to test $110.00 earlier today from $103.50 on Thursday.  Gold holds $1850 today from lows at $1788 last week. 
• Bitcoin rotates through $30K – Lagarde says crypto assets are ‘worth nothing.’
• FX markets – EURUSD up from 1.0355 to 1.0600, parity calls falling. USDJPY under 128.00, and Cable back to 1.2570.  AUD again outperformed in Asia.  

Overnight – JGBP House Prices  hotter than expected  & RBA’s Kent says the Bank’s estimate of the neutral rate is 2 to 3%.

Today – German Ifo Survey, Speeches from BOE’s Bailey ECB’s Villeroy & Fed’s Bostic

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+1.20%) Rallied from lows at 0.7000  on  Friday to 0.7125 today, following new labor PM’s election.  MAs aligning higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & testing 0 line, RSI 48 & rising, H1 ATR 0.346, Daily ATR 1.67.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Bitcoin is on the Rise

Last week Bitcoin was staying at the supporting level of 28600. The asset broke this level, trying to jump. Bitcoin might potentially have to face the resistance at the level of 45000.Brent oil is finally done with the fan drawing after breaking the triangle. The asset is likely to hit the level of about 138 although it might also break this level through and jump up. So, it would be worth observing what is about to happen next.The US stock index S&P500 has formed the head and shoulders pattern on the weekly time frame. At the end of the trading week, the index dived below the neckline, trying to signify the breakout. The index is likely to drop and gain the required support at the level of 3400.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-is-on-the-rise"
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Key economic events and reports for the week ahead

Global equity markets suffered heavy losses in the first half of this week, however sentiment stabilized in the second half as stocks started to recover. The dollar took another step back, oil prices fell below $110 per barrel. The first positive news appeared on reopening of China economy after a period of severe social restrictions, some signs of de-escalation in Russia-EU relations emerged as well, in particular, EU appears to have accepted Russia’s scheme of gas payments.The situation on the foreign exchange market reflected a decrease in risks, both geopolitical and inflation, which was primarily expressed in greenback retreat, which has been rising all this time due to the fact that US assets were perceived as the best place in terms of risk-reward ratio.Over the next week, the downward trend in risks, or at least in perception that risks are decreasing, is likely to continue, which should have slightly negative consequences for the dollar. The pound and Euro may still rise against the dollar, EURUSD rally could reach 1.0650, GBPUSD could test 1.25. Other currencies of the G10 countries will likely rise against the Dollar as well.On Monday, the head of the British Central Bank Bailey will deliver a speech, in light of strong recent data on the UK labor market, there may be more determination to tighten policy, which should be reflected in Bailey’s remarks. RBNZ will hold a meeting and the Fed will release the Minutes of its last policy meeting on Wednesday. Powell was pretty clear this week about his commitment to tackle high inflation so the Minutes may contain little surprise and cause moderate market reaction.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/key-economic-events-and-reports-for-the-week-ahead-22-05-2022"
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The end of the era of optimisation

A focus on maximising returns has made economies too fragile, says Edward Chancellor.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/604873/the-end-of-the-era-of-optimisation
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 128.892Pivot: 128.09Support: 127.14Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving below the Ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 128.09 where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance is to our 1st support at 127.14 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 128.892 where the horizontal overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation23"
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GBPUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.26296Pivot: 1.24979Support: 1.23988Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.24979 where the horizontal overlap support is to our 1st resistance at 1.26296 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.23988 where the horizontal overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation23"
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China Stock Market Could be the Next Trigger of Global Risk Aversion

The Chinese hedge fund segment, worth about $1 trillion, could worsen the turmoil in the stock market, as massive losses force some portfolio managers to cover their loss by indiscriminately selling their assets.Some 2,350 equity-linked hedge funds fell below the point at which they would normally need to cut holdings last month, with many close to the point at which they would need to be liquidated, Bloomberg reported, citing an industry data provider.Such signs of stress are "close to historic highs," analysts at China Merchants Securities Co. said in a report.A sign indicating that the situation has drawn attention of regulators is the fact that exchange operators began to ask some funds to assess the extent of pressure on their portfolios since March, writes Bloomberg, citing people familiar with it."The pressure on the market may be quite large after strong expansion of the industry last year," said Yang Hong, director of the Chinese hedge fund research center at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance.The Chinese stock index CSI 300 Index in January-April showed the worst performance since 2008. The index has fallen by about 17% since the start of the year as tough coronavirus policies and inspections of private companies hurt investor confidence. Weak statistics fuel fears that markets will remain under pressure if China does not change its approach.The hedge fund segment grew 66% last year, with a total value of all assets under management of 6.1 trillion yuan ($903 billion). As of March 31, hedge funds managed 6.35 trillion yuan in assets.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/china-stock-market-could-be-the-next-trigger-of-global-risk-aversion"
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