Forex Trading Review Guide: June 2022

Thursday, June 30, 2022

Metals prices wobble on slowdown fears

The S&P GSCI index of 24 major raw materials has fallen back 9% since mid-June on growing fears of a recession, and copper has hit a 16-month low after losing 22% since a peak in early March.

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UK house prices are definitely cooling off – but are they heading for a fall?

UK house prices hit a fresh high in June, but as interest rates start to rise, the market is cooling John Stepek assesses just how much of an effect higher rates will have on the price of your home.

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Five dividend stocks to beat inflation

During periods of high inflation, dividend stocks tend to do better than the wider market. Here, Rupert Hargreaves pick five dividend stocks for income investors to buy now.

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Investment Bank Outlook 30-06-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnight Risk sentiment remains very subdued so far this week as concerns about the global growth outlook are aggravated by persistent geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. In addition, central bank comments at the ECB central bank forum in Sintra have further highlighted the officials’ commitment to contain the latest inflation overshoot potentially at the expense of an economic downturn later this year and early next year. The Chinese PMIs released earlier today have signalled that the worst of the slowdown in the world’s second largest economy may be behind us and this has helped the AUD regain some ground. That said, we think it will take further positive surprises from global economic data to see a more sustained improvement in risk. In the meantime, the JPY has not been further undermined by the massive slump in Japan IP (-7.2% MoM in May, vs -0.3% consensus), while the high-yielding, safe-haven King USD can continue to reign supreme against the backdrop of pervasive risk aversion. On the day, month-end rebalancing flows could also support the USD across the board.CitiEuropean OpenThe worst quarter in at least 30y for the combined performance of stocks and bonds is ending with a whimper so far. Half year-end session so far has been characterized by very low cross-asset volumes and subdued price action. China stocks was the bright spot, powering higher after a strong PMI print. PBoC injects more funds to keep quarter-end funding smooth. G10 FX trades close to home with volumes ~15% below normal. THB gave up some of the recent rally, KRW struggling after early stock selling pressure, though the move pared as fresh demand emerged in FWDs.Ahead, we look for rate decisions for SEK and COP, where Citi Economics expect rate hikes of 50bps and 100bps respectively. The US will see Initial Jobless & continuing claims data, as well as PCE core deflator figures, CHF looks to retail sales, while EUR will eye France CPI and eurozone unemployment prints. CAD receives GDP data as well as the CFIB Business Barometer. Over in EM, TRY looks to trade balance, HKD to retail sales and BRL to an inflation report.What happened in markets?G10 FX: Overnight, dollar held onto gains prior to the NY close. G10 FX stuck to a tight range against the dollar in Asia, with volumes across the board down around 15% compared to 30d averages. USD was down a touch, with NOK leading at 0.21%.Rates: Our treasuries trader Hideyuki Liu writes that flows today have been muted, though early FM interest in 30y was seen only to be countered by modest long-end selling by RM in the afternoon. Intermediates have led the drift lower, but rather than being a move of conviction, feels more like a retracement after the sharp rally seen during NY yesterday. Both tips of the yield curve have outperformed, with month-end buying expected later today.Oil prices continued to decline in NY and traded flat in Asia. The decline was a result of DoE confirmation of rising distillate and gasoline inventories on weak demand, which tipped the market to the downside.Month End Rebalancing:The final estimate of month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows continues to point to USD buying.Asset markets have performed poorly in June with bond and equity indices in all advanced economies down. Although the US markets are not the worst performers, the dominance of US assets in global portfolio allocation and our assumption that foreigners tend to hedge their FX exposures more leads to a net USD buy-signal.The average USD buy-signal is around 1.8 standard deviations. The signal to sell EURUSD is weaker at 1.2 standard deviations because poor performance of Euro Area bonds may create some offsetting EUR buying flows.The signal to sell JPY vs USD is strongest at around 2 standard deviations, driven by relatively good performance of Japanese assets. This reduces foreign JPY buying needs and allows domestic JPY selling to reduce foreign fixed income hedges to dominate.With the exceptions of GBP, NOK and SEK, we haven’t seen significant real money selling of G10 currencies in recent days, suggesting little or no early rebalancing this month.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-30-06-2022"
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AUDNZD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.11626Pivot: 1.10526Support: 1.09511Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices breaking above the ichimoku indicator and RSI moving along an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will drop and rise from our pivot at 1.10526 where the horizontal pullback support is to our 1st resistance at 1.11626 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection and swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.09511 where the horizontal swing low support and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audnzd-h4-or-potential-bullish-rise"
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GC1!, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 1830Pivot: 1806.2Support: 1785.2Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving below the ichimoku indicator and along a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that prices will drop to our pivot at 1806.2 where the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Once we have downside confirmation, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 1785.2 in line with swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 100% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could rise to our 1st resistance at 1830 in line with overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gc1-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation30"
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Market Update – June 30 – End of the Month flows?

USD recovers (USDIndex 104.96), Stocks drop but in Asia markets mostly added to yesterday’s losses, with China bourses outperforming after data signaled signs of improvement and the PBOC reiterated its pledge to provide support for the economy, with a focus on stabilising jobs and inflation. Yields are currently down -2.7 bp and -1.1 bp respectively and bonds in Australia and New Zealand also moved higher. Bonds still remain supported byreaffirmation from core central bankers of their commitment to lowering inflation back to the 2% target. China’s official Composite PMI & German retail sales bounced back. UK Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.8% q/q in the final reading, unchanged from the previous release and leaving the annual rate at 8.7% y/y. Oil at 109.12, Gold steady.

USDIndex up to 104.96, from where the strength is starting to peter out. The buck has rallied against the majors and looks to be capturing a haven bid as well.
Equities – USA100 and USA500 are about -0.25% lower, while the GER40 has tumbled -1.80% and the UK100 is -0.15% lower. Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.6% and -2% respectively.
Yields 10-year slid 8 bps to 3.09%. Bond market closing early on Friday.
Oil is falling -2.17% to $109.33.
Gold steady at $1,817.
Bitcoin below 20K!
FX Markets – EURUSD drifted to 1.0432, USDJPY peaked at 137 area, Cable recovers slightly at 1.2160 from 1.2105.

Lagarde repeats ECB is determined to bring inflation down. She remains tight lipped on new crisis tool. Lagarde repeated that there is the need for the ECB to safeguard an even transmission of monetary policy and that the bank will in the first step use the re-investment of previous purchases to address any unwarranted disruptions.

Powell: there are risks we go too far in tightening policy, but that is not the biggest risk. He said the bigger risk is that there is an insufficient response and inflation expectations become unanchored. And once those expectations become unmoored, “the cost of dealing with higher inflation goes up so much… you just cannot allow it to happen.”

BoE’s Bailey would not specify the Bank’s next move in answering a direct question on whether the hike will be by 50 bps. He said, though, that there will be circumstances where the BoE will have to do more, but he wants to see what happens in coming months.

Today – OPEC+ enters a second and final day of meetings today. Focus is also on the US PCE, Canadian GDP and Inflation from Japan

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Coffee (-4.82%). Reverted 3-day losses. MAs aaligning higher, MACD lines turn positive but signal line remains well below 0 & RSI is at 65. H1 ATR 2.24, Daily ATR 7.83.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, June 30, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 30, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed’s Powell: Fed Must Accept Higher Recession Risk To Combat Inflation Fed’s Mester: Fed Is on Track for 0.75-Point July Rate Hike Bitcoin Trades Sub 20k Amid Global Reduced Risk Sentiment China's June Factory, Services Activity Expands First Time In 4 Months EU Seeks Open Talks On N.Ireland, Not Pre-Set UK Outcome UK Business Confidence at 15Mth Low As Cost Of Living Crisis Bites China Lockdowns Spark Sharpest Drop In Japan Output Since 2020 Australia Job Vacancies Surge As Firms Struggle To Find Staff RBNZ Chief Economist Warns Housing No Longer One-Way Bet NZ Business Sentiment Continues To Weaken As Supply Issues Dominate Euro Under Pressure As Inflation Fears Send Investors To Dollar Haven Bonds Move To Price In A Half-Point Cut After Fed Reaches Peak SEC Rejects Grayscale’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Application Oil Set For First Monthly Decline This Year Before OPEC+ Meeting US Could Release Even More Oil From Strategic Stockpiles Iran, US Nuclear-Deal Talks End Without Progress US Agrees To Pay $3.2 Billion For More Pfizer Covid Vaccines Chinese Stocks Set For Largest Monthly Rise Since 2020 Samsung Says It Is Manufacturing 3nm Chips In Global FirstThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mixed this morning. Most are down but Chinese indices are up. Chinese markets may have been supported by an upturn in June PMI data as the manufacturing index climbed above the 50 expansion level for the first time since February, while the non-manufacturing reading was the highest since April 2021. In Germany, retail sales rose by 0.6% in May following a big fall in April. French annual CPI inflation on the EU harmonised measure rose to 6.5% in May up from 5.8% in April. Today’s latest reading for the Lloyds Business Barometer showed a decline of 10 points in June as business confidence slipped to its lowest since the emergence from the second Covid wave. Despite today’s fall, the level of confidence is still equivalent to its long-term average. However, firms are now more cautious both about the economy as a whole and their own trading prospects. Indeed, eleven of the UK’s twelve regions and nations reported lower confidence this month. Firms’ hiring intentions have also moderated and, while pay and pricing expectations remain elevated, there were tentative signs of moderation compared with last month. Today’s Swedish Riksbank monetary policy update is expected to produce a second straight hike in interest rates. Indeed, most economists expect the Riksbank to adopt the same move as several other central banks and opt for a 50 basis points hike rather than repeating April’s move of 25bp. Further rises are also expected at the remaining two meetings of the year and some economists are forecasting 50bp increases at each of those meetings. Despite a fall in US retail sales interest rates in May, overall consumer spending is expected to have risen due to more spending on services. Nevertheless, yesterday’s downward revision to Q1 consumer expenditure growth added to concerns about the outlook that have already been lifted by the sharp decline in consumer confidence measures. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, is expected to mirror the movements in the already released CPI. Expect the headline PCE deflator to rise to 6.5% from 6.3%, while the core PCE deflator is forecast to edge down to 4.8% from 4.9%. As elsewhere, inflation is expected to remain above target for a considerable period ahead. Finally, weekly jobless claims data, which have ticked up in recent weeks, will be watched for signs that employment growth is faltering.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0400 (703M), 1.0440 (307M), 1.0500 (692M) 1.0550-55 (1.12BLN) 1.0650 (207M), 1.0750 (938M) USD/JPY: 135.00 (263M), 136.00 (356M), 137.00 (311M) GBP/USD: 1.2300 (348M). USD/ZAR: 15.65-75 (370M) EUR/GBP: 0.8525 (259M), 0.8650 (701M) USD/CHF: 0.9600 (630M), 0.9800 (250M) USD/CAD: 1.2750-55 (1.15BLN), 1.2830 (390M) 1.2850-60 (390M), 1.3000 (601M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR was the weakest major currency yesterday, trading 1.0450’s as LDN session starts USD broadly bid with hawkish comments from Fed Cheif Powell EUR/CHF selling saw prints below parity to a 15-year low EUR/USD closed below support at 1.0470 and now targets June 15 low at 1.035 EUR pressured by diverging central bank expectations and month-end flows EUR/USD's rally attempts are laboured ECB comments and risk aversion weigh A daily close under the 1.0450 would be another bearish development Initial offers are seen at 1.0615/20 ahead 1.0650 Bids 1.0450 stops below to fuel a test of 1.04 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP offered on fears the BoE may delay further hikes New BoE board member Dhingra prefers 'very gradual' approach on rates Markets sense BoE may fall behind the curve in a similar fashion to the ECB Souring risk sentiment weighs on GBP trading sub 1.2150 Month end USD bids add further downside pressure Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2150 failure here will open 1.2050 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 134 Bearish below USD/JPY up to 137.00 before retreating with lower US yields 137.00 traded but didn't trade above, any option structures are likely still in play Risk off sentiment driven by growth concerns, inflation and hawkish Fed USD/JPY trades at highest levels since 139.95 in September 1998 Longer-term trend is bullish driven by BoJ-Fed divergence, US yields correlation US yields soften on recession fears, 10 yr Treasury trading 3.06% Japanese importer bids sited towards 135 Notable options expiries at 133.50 and 134.00 strikes go off Friday Option barriers quoted at 137 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD steadies as China PMIs improve Global growth concerns will likely keep the AUD/USD under pressure Bids are tipped toward support at June 14 lows 0.6850 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish above .22000 Bearish below BTC sinks below 20k as EU seeks a deal on Crypto regulation Trend remains down as within broader bearish channel beckons BTC gaining traction below 20k Support at 19,690’s eroded bears targeting a retest of 19k 20 Day VWAP remains bearishly oriented and untested Additional pressure seen from BTC miners liquidating positions on declining profitability 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-june-30-2022"
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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Jump Ahead?

The price of Bitcoin got back to the broken neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is next to a very strong psychological supporting level of 20000. Bitcoin is likely to jump anytime soon.Oil is trying to close the trading day with a shooting star that is touching the level of 120. The price of oil is likely to form the candlestick pattern, drop to the level of 100, and gain the required support.Gold might shortly approach the downtrend, face the resistance at the level of 1850, and jump. It might also drop to the supporting level of 1785 and then only jump.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-jump-ahead"
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Three Sharia-compliant growth companies

Professional investor Scott Klimo of the Saturna Al-Kawthar Global Focused Equity ETF tips three Sharia-compliant stocks.

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Wednesday, June 29, 2022

GBPCAD, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.57894Pivot: 1.57052Support: 1.54814Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1.57052 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 1.54814 at the horizontal swing low and 78.6% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise above the pivot to the 1st resistance at 1.57894 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and pullback resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpcad-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation"
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CADCHF, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.74889Pivot: 0.74587Support: 0.73563Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.74587 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement and pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.73563 at the horizontal swing low and 78.6% fibonacci projectionAlternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise above the pivot to the 1st resistance at 0.74889 in line with the swing high resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cadchf-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation"
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USDCHF, H4 | Potential Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.97272Pivot: 0.95620Support: 0.94155Preferred Case:On the H4, with bullish divergence on the RSI, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 0.95620 where the horizontal swing low support is to our 1st resistance at 0.97272 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break structure and head for 1st support at 0.94155 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdchf-h4-or-potential-bullish-bounce29"
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Investment Bank Outlook 29-06-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnight Again, price action was pretty subdued in the G10 FX space overnight, as the USD consolidated its resurgence of the day prior. It was at least until the first regional CPI estimate coming from one of the German Lander this morning. The EUR indeed dipped on the back of a surprising fall in consumer prices this month, although we would caution whether the market consensus had well discounted the measures recently implemented to tackle surging transport costs. Elsewhere, USD/JPY has steadied around 136 despite the modest slippage in UST yields and the equity losses, while the slight miss in the Japanese retail sales was easily shrugged off. In contrast, Australian retail sales kept growing at a frothy 0.9% MoM pace in May (vs 0.4% expected), which nonetheless did not translate into a material lift for the AUD as AUD/USD is holding up just above 0.69.EUR: can we still trust the ECB?The EUR’s good start to the new week has seemingly come to a premature end in the wake of the opening speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra as well as on the back of returning concerns about the Eurozone economic outlook. In particular, Lagarde’s comments suggested that the ECB has made little progress on its anti[1]fragmentation tool since the tool was first announced at its June policy meeting two weeks ago. Indeed, we continue to think that the ECB’s ability to contain any further sell-off in the Eurozone periphery will remain a key determinant of the EUR’s near-term outlook given that the rates markets have already priced in a significant portion of the upcoming ECB monetary tightening. All that being said, we further note that the reaction in the EGB and the Eurozone rate markets to Lagarde’s speech has been rather muted with the EUR-USD rate spread still close to recent highs and the peripheral yield spreads to Bunds still close to recent lows. We therefore think that the latest EUR/USD price action in particular could be further driven by month-end rebalancing flows that according to our model should be dominated by USD-buying.CitiEuropean OpenMarkets were calm following the European close, with dollar holding onto gains. Aussie retail sales came in higher than expected, while Korea saw news from Bloomberg today, citing Yonhap, that the BoK will weigh a ‘Big Step” rate hike if June CPI hits 6%. Nearer to the European open, we received a disinflation signal in the form of German regional (NRW) CPI, although we do note that we would not read too much into it given that the Saxony print is more highly correlated with the headline CPI. Nevertheless, German 10y bund futures jumped, while the UST curve sits 4-5bps lower.Central bank speak from Sintra looms today, featuring ECB, BoE and Fed speakers. For EUR, focus will once again be on fragmentation tool details, especially after yesterday’s report from Reuters. GBP will watch Bailey, as unscripted comments from the governor tend to be more informative on his views. Fed Chair Powell is not expected to alter his rhetoric of late despite the downward revision to University of Michigan inflation expectations. Elsewhere, we will watch the German CPI prints, Eurozone economic confidence data, and SEK’s economic tendency survey. BRL will watch inflation prints for June.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-29-06-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, June 29, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 29, 2022 Overnight Headlines Asian Markets Retreat On Increasing Recession Fears Bitcoin Testing 20k On Souring Risk Sentiment Fed Officials Promise Rate Hikes, Push Back On Recession Fears US Dep ComSec Clear US Response On China Tariffs Is Coming Soon EU Countries Uphold Phaseout Of New Cars Emissions By 2035 France Cuts Growth Outlook, But Sticks To Budget Target BRC: UK Shop Prices Jump By Most Since 2008 China’s Economy Didn’t Bounce In Q2, Beige Book Survey Finds Japan Retail Sales Rise Faster Than Expected As Covid Curbs Ease BoJ Gov Vows Easy Policy As Japan Less Affected By Global Inflation Australian Consumers Spent Big In May After First Rate Hike Turkey Clears Way For Finland, Sweden To Join NATO Dollar Falters As US Yields Retreat Amid Recession Risks Oil Prices Take a Breather After Their Three-Day Rally EIA: Delayed Weekly Oil Reports To Be Released Wednesday OPEC+ Oil Output Is Half A Billion Barrels Behind On Supply Deal Asian Stocks Lose Bounce From Shorter Quarantine, Slip On Inflation Fears Tesla Lays Off Hundreds Of Autopilot Workers In Latest CutsThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are weaker, following on from the falls on Wall Street, as concerns about higher interest rates and economic growth resurfaced. Geopolitics remain in focus after Turkey dropped opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. US 10-year Treasury yields are lower, as are German bund yields after unexpected falls in German state inflation data (see below). In the UK, the BRC’s shop price index of commonly purchased goods has risen for an eleventh consecutive month, led higher food prices. The first indications of June inflation for the Eurozone will comes from Spanish inflation printing double digits, later German data, followed by French figures tomorrow. Earlier this morning, figures for the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia has attracted attention for being surprisingly weak, falling to 7.5%y/y from 8.1%y/y. If replicated through the morning’s other regional CPI releases and in the pan-German figure at 1pm, it would pose downside risks to the Eurozone ‘flash’ CPI estimate (which is forecast to accelerate) due on Friday. Also in the Eurozone, the eurozone economic sentiment index is expected to fall, reflecting declines in consumer, industrial and services confidence. The final day of the ECB’s forum on ‘Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world’ takes place in Sintra (Portugal). A panel policy at 2pm featuring ECB President Lagarde, US Fed Chair Powell, BoE Governor Bailey and the BIS’s Carstens will be closely watched, as markets assess the scale of interest rate increases ahead needed to bring inflation levels back to target. In the US, the 1.5% annualised contraction in Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed in today’s update. The weakness was led by a wider trade deficit and slower inventory growth, which are expected to reverse. Growth is therefore expected to rebound in Q2, but to moderate in the second half of the year and in 2023. Early Thursday sees the release of China’s PMIs which are forecast to rise above the key 50 level in June to signal expansion for the first time since February as Omicron restrictions are eased. Also, due early tomorrow is the Lloyds Bank Business Barometer for June. It will also provide a forward-looking gauge on businesses’ trading prospects, their assessment of the wider economy and their expectations for hiring, prices and wage growth. The update for UK Q1 GDP will be released at 7am tomorrow and is expected to confirm 0.8%q/q growth. Given cost-of-living challenges for households, there will be attention on the disposable income and savings data to gauge the extent to which households may be reducing their savings to smooth consumption. Citi's Quant prelim month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows suggest USD buying with the signal stronger than the historical average.Despite US equity and bond markets not being the worst performers, the prominence of US assets in global portfolios, allied with the assumption that foreigners tend to hedge FX exposures, suggests net USD buying. USD-buying signal is around 1.7 historical standard deviations with EUR/USD sell signal around 1.3. Has not seen much in the way of real money selling G10 currencies (with the exception of GBP and AUD).FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0550 (426M), 1.0620-25 (662M), 1.0675 (468M) USD/JPY: 135.00 (300M), 137.50 (500M) EUR/CHF: 1.0100 (574M), 1.0275 (230M), 1.0300 (300M) AUD/USD: 0.6950 (388M). USD/CAD: 1.2790-00 (316M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD's rally attempts are laboured ECB comments and risk aversion weigh Testing 1.05 as LDN session starts A daily close under the 1.0450 would be another bearish development Sintra roundtable this afternoon and month end USD buying catalysts today Initial offers are seen at 1.0615/20 ahead 1.0650 Bids eyed towards 1.05 and 1.0450 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. Souring risk sentiment weighs on GBP trading sub 1.22 early LDN trading Month end USD bids add further downside pressure Scottish Gov seeking another Independence vote BOE Gov Bailey speaking in Sintra this afternoon Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2150 failure here will open 1.2050 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below USD/JPY bid in the Asian session holding in the upper end of Tue’s range US yields soften on recession fears, 10 yr Treasury trading 3.14% Japanese importer bids sited towards 135 Exporter offers above 136.75 stops above could fuel further upside Notable options expiries at 133.50 and 134.00 strikes go off Friday Option barriers quoted at 136.75 & 137 Global equity sentiment continues to strengthen 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD heavy in risk off Asain trade China’s June PMI’s due Thursday may provide some near term support Bids are tipped toward support at June 14 lows 0.6850 Powell speaks this afternoon and will likely drive dollar action into LDN close 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed back at .6900 and stronger to .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish above .22000 Bearish below BTC weighed ProShares Short BTC ETF sees strong inflows in opening week of trading BITI holds a short exposure equivalent to 939 Bitcoins Trend remains down as within broader bearish channel beckons BTC struggling to gain traction above 21k Yesterdays bearish reversal flips 5 Day VWAP bearish Support sited at 19,690’s 20 Day VWAP remains bearishly oriented and untested Additional pressure seen from BTC miners liquidating positions on declining profitability 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-june-29-2022"
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Market Update – June 29 – Equities in a Sell Off

USD recoves (USDIndex 104.60) after stumble on auction data, Stocks down as weaker than expected confidence data, a plunge in the Richmond Fed index and donwdraft of big tech were catalysts for some selling (USA100 tumbled -2.98%, -28% for the year). US blacklists Chinese companies for allegedly supporting Russian army. Yields richened led by the long end with the 10-year ending 2 bps lower at 3.18%. Weakness has spilled over from European bonds after hawkish ECBspeak from Lagarde and others that has seen core rates jump over 10 bps. Lagarde confirmed the bank’s commitment to rate hikes in July and September. Finland, Sweden nearer Nato Membership. China would cut mainland coronavirus quarantine requirements for all arrivals. Oil at 111.20, Gold down.

USDIndex up to 104.60, by safe-haven flows
Equities – USA100 tumbled -2.98% with the USA500 losing -2.01%, and the USA30 down -1.56%. JPN225 fell 0.98%, Hang Seng is currently down -1.8%, the CSI 300 -1.1%.
Yields 10-year rate down -3.9 bp at 3.12%. Bund futures are also rallying.
Oil topped to $112.20, currently at $111.20. – Market tussled between concerns about the global economy and tight global oil supplies.
Gold down to $1,817. US bans new imports of Russian gold & Fed policymakers promise further rapid interest-rate hikes.
Bitcoin broke 20K!
FX Markets – EURUSD remains below the 1.06 mark and is again eyeing the 20-year low of 1.038, USDJPY is at 135.86, Cable trades at 1.2175 down from 1.2290.

Today – Focus is on Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence , US Q1 GDP but mainly on Fedspeakers and ECB Speakers.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCUSD (-1.49%). Below 20K again. MAs aligning lower, MACD lines & RSI are negatively configurated. H1 ATR 186.639, Daily ATR 1825.737.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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Indulge your wild side with a safari in deepest Kent

Get up close to the animals at Port Lympne Hotel and Reserve, says Matthew Partridge

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Tuesday, June 28, 2022

How to find the best stocks with dividends

Stocks that pay dividends tend to outperform the market over the long run - as well as providing an income. Here, Rupert Hargreaves explains the best ways to find dividend stocks, and lists his top ten dividend-payers on the UK market now.

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JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H4 Potential For Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 0.0074895Pivot: 0.0074195Support: 0.0073570Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.0074195 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.0073570 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break the pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0074895 where the swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:Yen weakness could continue, evident with the USDJPY rebounding from support to trade above 135 overnight, giving us a weak bearish bias towards yen.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/japanese-yen-futures-6j1-h4-potential-for-bearish-momentum"
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NZDUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.63957Pivot: 0.62931Support: 0.62466Preferred Case:On the H4, with price recently breaking the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 0.62931 in line with the pullback support to the 1st resistance at 0.63957 in line with the swing high and 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 0.62466 at the swing low in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-bounce"
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USDCAD, H4 | Potential For Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.3018Pivot: 1.28596Support: 1.27179Preferred Case:On the H4, with price expected to bounce off ichimoku support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.28596 where the horizontal swing low support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st resistance at 1.3018 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break structure and head for 1st support at 1.27179 where the horizontal pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-h4-or-potential-for-bullish-momentum"
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DXY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 104.941Pivot: 103.404 Support: 102.747Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices expected to bounce off ichimoku support and prices moving along the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that bullish momentum will carry prices from our pivot at 103.404 where the 61.8% fibonacci projection, 50% fibonacci retracement and swing low support are, after price has dropped to the pivot level, to our 1st resistance at 104.941 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Take note of intermediate support at 103.928 where the swing low support is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 102.747 where the horizontal overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dxy-h4-or-potential-for-bullish-momentum"
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NK2251!, H4 | Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 28328.52Pivot: 26861.34Support: 25980.72Preferred Case:On the H4, with price bouncing off the ichimoku cloud and moving in an ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 26861.34 in line with the pullback support and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 28328.52 in line with the multiple swing high and 100% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 25980.72 in line with the pullback support .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nk2251-h4-or-bullish-continuation"
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Market Update – June 28 – Month-, Quarter- and Half Year End Trades?

USD underpressure (USDIndex 103.40), Stocks mixed overnight, but up currently into EU open. Yields were sunk by two poor note auctions after an early risk-on bid weighed on the bond market. JGB yields rose on, with the yield curve widening to its steepest level since 2015. Oil up at 111.45, Gold steady. US Durables report & pending home sales surprised on the high side, while the Dallas Fed index plunged. Today’s German consumer confidence not as bad as feared but the headline looks worse than it did during the pandemic and the resulting pressure on consumption will add to recession risks not just in Germany.

USDIndex down to 103.40, as cautious investors headed for safety and the US Dollar was capped, although overall levels don’t look very different to last morning.
Equities – Nikkei and ASX closed with gains of 0.7% and 0.9%. Wall Street stumbled and lost traction with the USA100 falling -0.72%. The USA500 was down -0.30%, and the USA30 lost -0.20%.
Yields 10-year was up about 9 bps to test 3.21% but ended at 3.194%.
Oil extends gains – $111.38. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates looked unlikely to be able to boost output significantly while political unrest in Libya and Ecuador added to those supply concerns. – both produced at maximum capacity.
Gold pullback to $1,827.
FX Markets – EURUSD retests the 1.06 barrier, USDJPY is at 135.68, Cable trades at 1.2290 now, ranging since Friday.

Today – Focus is on ECB President Lagarde at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal and US Consumer Confidence later on.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.69%). Broke 3-day’s peak and trades above 94.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines are positive configurated, RSI 67 but flattened. H1 ATR 0.214, Daily ATR 1.507.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

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S4 Capital – a company that still has much to prove

Audit delays set shares tumbling at advertising agency S4 Capital. It needs to show it can turn growth into profits, says Bruce Packard.

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A Europe-focused investment trust that’s back on form

Alex Darwall’s European Opportunities investment trust deserves another look after a difficult spell, says Max King.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/605026/a-europe-focused-investment-trust-thats-back-on-form
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Monday, June 27, 2022

SILVER FUTURES (Sl1!), H1 Potential For Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 22.565Pivot: 21.495Support: 20.840Preferred Case:On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 21.495 where the swing high resistance and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Once we have upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to intermediate resistance at 21.955 in line with swing high resistance and 127.8% fibonacci extension . Should price break intermediate resistance, we would have a bullish bias that price will rise to 1st resistance at 22.565 where swing high resistance is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop 1st support at 20.840 in line with the pullback support and 78.6% fibonacci projection .Fundamentals:As investors are seeking to hedge against inflation , we have a weak bullish view on silver .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-futures-sl1-h1-potential-for-bullish-momentum"
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Wells Fargo: The Winner Out of US Bank Stocks

Recent weakening of commodity prices and signs of slowing economic growth tempered market expectation over the Fed’s rate hike. Among metals, copper suffered the largest weekly fall within the year, at over -6%. In energy sector, UK gas and natural gas are down over 15% and 10% respectively, while crude oil also closed lower for the third consecutive week, down nearly 2%. Some products from agricultural and industrial sectors were also down (Source: Trading Economics).

Signs of economic recession hit market sentiment; participants are now pricing in for the benchmark rate to 3.5% (previously 4.0%) by March next year. Rising recession risk in general affects the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy, thus lifting the Wall Street’s main indices: S&P500 up +3.46% to 3912, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones were up 3.75% and 3.03% to 12087 and 31482, respectively. “All 11 of the benchmark index’s sectors ended at least 1.5% higher”.

In addition, most of the US banks stock prices surged higher following the sector passing the Fed’s annual stress test – a report that probes a bank’s capability to maintain enough capital to weather a severe economic downturn. Unlike some major banks, which are expected to increase their stress capital buffers (SCB), Wells Fargo SCB is likely to remain almost unchanged from last year – This explains Wells Fargo being the winner out of its rivals, with gains over 6% intraday.

Wells Fargo is expected to release its Q2/2022 earnings announcement on 15^th July. Market consensus for sales revenue stood at $17.79B, up +1.14% (q/q) but down -13.9% (y/y). Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to hit $0.92, up 4.55% from previous quarter but down nearly 49% from the same period last year.

Technical Analysis:

The Daily chart displayed #WellsFargo rebounded higher after gaining its foot above $35.86 – $36.53. In a bigger picture, the bank’s stock price remains traded in a bearish trend. To further clarify technical correction, it must break the nearest resistance at $40.53, followed by minor resistance at $42.14 and the $45.19-$45.61 resistance zone. The 100-day SMA serves as an important indicator in which a strong bullish break (sustain and without a strong retrace afterward) above it may indicate a change in medium-long term direction. On the other hand, if bullish breakout unsuccessful, the downward trend may resume towards testing support $35.86-$38.53, followed by psychological level $34.00 and $29.22.

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Larince Zhang

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Market Update – June 27 – More of an Equities Story Today

USD drop below the 104 mark (USDIndex 103.70), Stocks led the rise in Asian equity indexes, with news that the PBOC made the largest cash injection in three months. Yields (+3.17%) up as markets continue to weigh recession risks and central bank outlooks. Oil corrected at 107.46, Gold higher and BTC steady. Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918. The grace period on two eurobond coupons worth around $100 million expired on Sunday, according to Bloomberg, which means the country is officially in default.

USDIndex down to 103.70 yesterday before slipping back to 104.00 now.
Equities – Hang Seng rallied 2.5%, the CSI300 is up 1.3%, while JPN225 and ASX closed with gains of 1.5% and 1.9% respectively, the latter boosted also by energy companies. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.5% and US futures have pared earlier losses and are posting fractional gains.
Yields 10-year is up 3.8 bp at 3.17%, the 10-year Bund yield has gained 4.1 bp and is at 1.47% as markets continue to weigh recession risks and central bank outlooks.
Oil & Gold higher to $107.60 and $1,835.16 respectively. – Brent saw levels below USD 112 amid concern of waning demand amid slowing world growth
Bitcoin flat at $21,227.
FX Markets – EURUSD is at 1.0556, USDJPY fractionally above 135, Cable trades at 1.2290 now, ranging since Friday.
Reuters:
- Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% chance of the US economy tipping into recession over the next year – versus 15% earlier – while Morgan Stanley places US recession odds for the next 12 months at around 35%.
- Citi forecasts a near-50% probability of global recession.

Today – Focus is on US Durable goods but also on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data on Thursday for further confirmation that price pressures remain heated. Chinese factory activity data due to be released later this week could provide a guide as to whether the world’s second-largest economy is finding momentum again after the disruption caused by strict COVID-19 lockdown measures.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.83%). Rallied from 1.7650 to 1.7765. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram at neutral, RSI 54.63 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00324, Daily ATR 0.01633.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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GC1!, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1878.9Pivot: 1841.7Support: 1784.7Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving in a descending trendline and below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1841.7 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1784.7 at the horizontal swing low.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise above the pivot to the 1st resistance at 1878.9 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gc1-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation27"
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Investment Bank Outlook 27-06-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightIt has been a slow start to the last week of H122 for G10 FX markets, with most of the action taking place in the APAC. The JPY is indeed the marginal outperformer on the day at the time of writing, while on the other side of the spectrum, the Antipodean currencies are trailing. Risk sentiment has nonetheless been fairly supportive, with Asian equity posting gains while equity futures are also broadly flashing green. China’s growth prospects have possibly gained some marginal traction after Shanghai’s leaders declared victory over Covid on Sunday, while financial markets were not spooked by Russia’s technical default on its foreign debt. Meanwhile, oil prices have opened largely unchanged as a potential stepping up of sanctions against Russian energy is reportedly being discussed at the G7.EUR: Sintra on my mind Focus in the first half of this week will be on the ECB’s three-day central bank symposium that starts today in Sintra, Portugal. On the day, speeches by the ECB’s Francine Lagarde and Francois Villeroy will attract some attention. More evidence that the ECB is committed to containing the Eurozone inflation while shielding the EGB market, can boost the EUR’s safe-haven appeal and prop up EUR/USD at a time when growing recession fears remain the main FX market driver. Moreover, we expect evidence on Friday that the Eurozone inflation continued to accelerate aggressively further in June and thus add to the pressure on the ECB to remove accommodation and thus the EUR’s rate disadvantage.CitiEuropean OpenMarkets were choppy out of the gates, after S&P 500 posted the strongest day of the year on Friday. Equities were modestly higher in Asia, with HSI and KOSPI doing well in particular. Over in rates, the UST curve bear steepened, while China NDIRS rates pushed higher, hitting YTD highs. USD was a touch softer, while JPY strengthened modestly. KRW opened higher and continued climbing on the back of the global risk rally. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Russia has defaulted on foreign debt for the first time since 1918.Ahead, we will eye the June Sintra forum as a key avenue for central bank speak. EUR will watch several central bank speakers, while USD will receive capital goods orders data. HKD and MXN will closely watch trade balance figures. Lastly, we flag that CLP and COP will observe local holidays.What happened in markets?A choppy start to the week on Monday, following the strongest day of the year for S&P 500 on Friday. S&P eminis trade at +0.2%, after paring an early gain to +0.5%. Our futures desk notes the 3963/3964 point as the first level to watch. Elsewhere in equities, HSI has outperformed +3%, climbing after an open higher. Kospi sits at +2%G10 currencies have mostly stayed within a tight range to the dollar. The exceptions are AUD and JPY. The former sits 0.4% weaker, while the latter is +0.3% higher. More in the sections belowRates: UST curve bear steepened on Monday morning, with 2y yields up 1bp and 30y yields up 4bps. Our trader Hideyuki Liu notes that Treasuries are softer to start the weak, with RM selling spanning across the curve from 10s to 30s has had treasuries on the back-foot for most of the session. Markets were jolted lower as equity futures broke above last week highs adding further to the "buy equities, sell bonds" theme, and 10y yields now at 3.16% as the London open nears. Flows were good selling in long-end, while 10y was much more two-way as the curve remains pressured to bear steepen in continuation of last week's pain trade momentum.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-27-06-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, June 27, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 27, 2022 Overnight Headlines BIS: Leading Economies At Risk Of Falling Into High-Inflation Trap US And G-7 Allies Detail Infrastructure Plan To Challenge China KPMG: Inflation Tipped To Push UK Economy Into Recession UK Proceeds With Legislation To Change N Ireland Trading Regime BoJ Focused On Wages, Yen, No Debate On Tweaking Yield Cap China’s Economy Improves In June From Lockdown-Induced Slump China’s PBoC Makes Biggest Daily Cash Injection In Three Months China's Industrial Profits Slump For Second Month In May PBoC Adviser: China GDP Target ‘Difficult’ To Achieve Australian Treasurer Chalmers Sees Inflation ‘Problem’ Worsening Iran Launches Rocket Into Space As Nuclear Talks To Resume Russia Defaults On Foreign Debt For First Time Since 1918 Dollar Shelters Under Recession Clouds As Investors Put Safety First Crude Oil Prices Gain, Supported by Tight Supply Ecuador Energy Ministry: Oil Production Could Stop In 48 Hours G-7 Weighs Russia Oil-Price Cap Via Insurance, Shipping Ban Asian Stocks Buoyed By Wall Street Gains, Futures Follow Suit Tesla, Ford and GM Raise EV Prices as Costs, Demand Grow Bitcoin Stable Over The Weekend Above 21,000 JPMorgan: BTC Miners To Sell BTC Into Q3The Day Ahead Equities have started the week on a positive note with almost all stock exchanges across the Asia-Pacific region registering gains. This continues to reflect the positive risk sentiment backdrop that has prevailed of late in response to the scaling back in interest rate expectations globally. Meanwhile, Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, largely a result of Western sanctions that had shut down payment routes for the nation. G7 leaders at their summit in Bavaria are expected to commit to providing support for Ukraine for “as long as it takes” according to a draft statement. Over the past week, signs of moderating economic activity saw financial markets scale back on their expectations over the extent to which monetary policy will be tightened. Nevertheless, money markets continue to forecast US policy rates to rise above 3.5% by the middle of next year, while UK Bank Rate is expected to rise a further 175bp over the same period, in a bid to bear down on elevated inflationary pressures. How much central bankers should raise interest rates, in the face of slowing economic growth, will be a key focal point at this week’s ECB forum in Sintra (Portugal) entitled ‘Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world’, which kicks off later today, with ECB President Christine Lagarde set to deliver opening remarks. Ahead of the Ms Lagarde’s comments this evening, ECB member Villeroy (Governor of the Bank of France) is scheduled to speak this morning. In comments last week, Mr Villeroy reiterated a commitment to do what was needed to bring inflation back to target in 2024, supporting expectations that eurozone policy rates will be lifted out of negative territory. Data wise, the economic calendar is fairly limited. However, pending home sales in the US are forecast to have fallen for a seventh consecutive month in May, as higher rates continue to dampen activity in the housing sector. Meanwhile, the US durable goods orders report for May will be watched for signs that business investment has softened in the second quarter, also in response to the ongoing increases in US interest rates.IMM: USD net spec long rises as CAD, EUR selling trumps yen buyingUSD net spec long rose in Jun 15-21 period; $IDX -0.22%...EUR specs -9,587 contracts now short 15,605; EUR$ +1.09% in periodYen specs -11,301 contracts now -58,454; specs buy into yen weaknessGBP$ +2.35% in period, GBP specs buy 2,349 contracts now -63,247$CAD -0.25% in period, specs -19,097 contracts now long -4,105AUD & NZD specs pare shorts AUD specs +2,648, NZD specs +1,415 contractsBTC -5.13% in period anchored by $20k, specs -15 contracts now long 1,046,(Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0445-55 (983M) USD/JPY: 134.50 (375M), 135.00 (363M), 137.00 (450M) AUD/USD: 0.7050 (284M). USD/CAD: 1.2820 (200M) 1.2870-75 (200M) Tuesday June 28 EUR/USD: 1.0450-60 (600M), 1.0595-00 (736M) USD/JPY: 135.00 (350M). GBP/USD: 1.2185 (247M) USD/CHF: 0.9425 (480M), 0.9550 (471M), 0.9645 (260M) EUR/CHF: 1.00 (280M), 1.0125 (276M), 1.0200 (280M) AUD/USD: 0.7000-05 (378M), 0.7040-50 (423M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD trades above Friday’s highs 1.0570’s EUR/USD resistance is at the 21-day MA at 1.0593 and break would be bullish EUR/USD bid supported by improvement in risk sentiment Market eyeing ECB and Fed comments as ECB summit in Sintra starts Initial offers are seen at 1.0615/20 ahead 1.0650 Bids eyed towards 1.05/15 ahead of cycle lows 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP catches a bid in early LDN trade testing Friday’s highs No GBP data cable taking its lead form generally improved risk sentiment Tomorrow notable options expiries GBP/USD 1.2000 GBP664 mln and on Wednesday sizeable GBP1.5 bln at 1.2750 Despite ongoing negative headlines, weak econ data, strikes & partygate GBP holds up Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2180 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below USDJPY took an early hit in Asian trade on Exporter sales USD/JPY recovers 135 handle as LDN gets underway Importer bids seen sitting toward 134.50 Notable options expiries at 133.50 and 134.00 strikes go off Friday US yields firming supporting USDJPY Global equity sentiment continues to strengthen 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD opens the week with a bid tone Aussie supported by recovery in risk and commodities 3.2% pop in Iron ore sees AUD testing Friday’s highs 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed back at .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

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The benefits of private equity are about to get tested

Private equity has grown ever more popular in recent years. But its touted benefits are set to be tested, says John Stepek.

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Three stocks to buy that line up with Warren Buffett’s investment principles

Professional investor Keith Ashworth-Lord of Sanford DeLand picks three high-quality companies that align with the principles of investment guru Warren Buffett.

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Sunday, June 26, 2022

Why a recession will do us good

A period of slimming down is always painful, but it leaves us healthier for the long run, says Matthew Lynn.

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Vitalik Buterin: the man who changed cryptocurrencies

Maths prodigy Vitalik Buterin became fascinated by bitcoin as a teenager. Now 28, he is worshipped as a near deity by crypto-enthusiasts.

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Saturday, June 25, 2022

Rail strikes and the summer of discontent – who's to blame?

The rail workers are all out and look likely to continue through the summer. Comrades in other unions are joining the strikers. Who is to blame?

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Friday, June 24, 2022

EURCHF set to clear 1.01?

The Swiss Franc has been one of the strongest currencies this month with only the USD doing better, albeit by a small margin, supported by strong risk-off flows which has seen Equities and Commodity prices fall strongly so far in June – US500.F fell about 11% before paring some of its losses this week while USOil is down about 3.7% in June.

The Swiss National Bank was hawkish in in their meeting last week, where they raised interest rates for the first time in 15 years by 50 basis points to -0.25% to counter inflationary pressures, which printed 2.9% in May. This move shows the SNB has learnt a lesson from the inflation situation in other major economies and are willing to act to curb inflation before it runs rampant.

Markets have since priced in a nearly 100% expectation for a 50 bps hike and are currently expecting a 66% chance of a 75 bps hike as the SNB implied that further rate increases should be expected. The ECB on the other hand have a lot on their plate, with fragmentation risk among European countries as highly indebted nations like Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain may struggle with higher interest rates more than others and this may see more inflow into the Franc through the EURCHF rates, especially after the SNB implied they were more accepting of a stronger Franc.

The Swiss economy has remained resilient despite headwinds from the tension between Russia and Ukraine which has strongly increased the cost of energy. Switzerland imports over 70% of its energy consumption and the COVID situation in China dampened demand from Switzerland’s 3^rd largest trade partner after the EU and United States. Q1 GDP grew to 0.5% above market expectations, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May was 2.1%, down from 2.3% in April and the inflation rate grew to 0.7% in May, taking the annual rate to 2.9%.

Over the coming weeks, we could see further strength in the Swiss Franc, considering the hawkish pivot from the SNB and expectations to hike rates further, the bank’s willingness to accept a stronger Franc – although the bank also noted that they are willing to be active in the Forex market which means intervention if the CHF gathers too much strength – and the expectation for global economic slowdown amid central bank tightening, which supports the currency as a safe haven.

#EURCHF is down about 1.8% so far this month after initially climbing 2.3% as risk off sentiment and SNB action spurred the downside. After a tight range from late last week, the pair has finally made its way to the 1.01 support level again which held as previous cycle low going back to mid-April. #EURCHF currently trades below all three daily MAs, after breaking the year’s ascending channel last week. The retest of the 1.01 level could attract more bears that may take the price to 0.997 which is the lowest point on the pair since January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank announced the end of the EURCHF peg. Alternatively, an improvement in risk sentiment, jawboning by the SNB or effective action by the ECB to counter fragmentation risk could see the pair pare some of the losses recorded this month as it currently trades in the oversold region heading into the end of the first half of the year.

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Heritage Adisa

Market Analyst – Educational Office – Nigeria

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Daily Market Outlook, June 24, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 24, 2022 Overnight Headlines Asian Equity Markets Broadly Higher; US And EU Futures Also Rise UK Conservatives Lose Key District In Major Blow To PM Johnson UK Consumer Confidence Falls To Lowest Since Records Began Powell Hammers Home Unconditional’ Commitment To Cool Prices Fed’s Bowman Backs Raising Funds Rate By 75 Basis Points In July US Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way For Shareholder Payouts US Meets With Refiners On High Pump Prices But No Plan Yet EU Leaders Vote To Grant Ukraine And Moldova Candidate Status ECB’s Kazimir: The ECB Rate May Be At 1.5-2.0% In A Years’ Time China Central Bank Raises Cash Injection To Keep Liquidity Stable Japanese Consumer Inflation Tops BoJ Target For Second Month OPEC+ To Stick To Oil Supply Rise Plan As Biden Heads To Saudi US Dollar Stumbles As Interest Rate Path Fuels Recession Worries Bitcoin Rangebound Remains Above Recently Reclaimed 20,000 levelThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets chalked up gains as US Treasury yields fall with attention appearing to be shifting towards the loss of economic momentum and a potential near-term peak in inflation. While US policy rates are expected to rise significantly further this year, market pricing currently points to rate cuts around the middle of next year. In the UK, data released overnight showed consumer confidence in the GfK survey fall to an all-time low of -41 in June, weighed by the squeeze on incomes from high inflation. Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost both by elections in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton. Party Chairman Oliver Dowden resigned. Just released official UK data showed the volume of retail sales decline by 0.5% in May while the previous month’s rise was revised lower. Sales volumes fell in predominantly food stores, linked to higher prices, and were flat in other (non-food) stores. In the year-on-year comparison, the volume of sales fell by 4.7%. However, in nominal terms (actual pounds spent), retail sales were up 5.0%. That suggests high inflation is resulting in consumers paying more for less goods. The German IFO survey of businesses will be released this morning. It has so far shown some degree of resilience in the economy in the face of supply bottlenecks, rising costs and the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, confidence fell sharply in March and, despite slight rises in April and May, it remains below levels at the start of the year and is consistent with a slowdown in economic activity. For June, anticipate the headline index to remain steady at 93.0. It is worth noting that yesterday’s flash PMIs for Germany were weaker. In the US, latest data for new home sales will attract some attention, particularly as higher interest rates cool the housing market. Also due is the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The preliminary reading showed sentiment falling to an all-time low of 50.2, while longer-term inflation expectations rose to a 14-year high. On the central bank speaker front, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Pill and external MPC member Haskel will speak at separate events this afternoon. Pill’s speech on ‘Challenges for Monetary Policy after Covid-19’ may attract particular attention. US Fed speakers include St Louis Fed President Bullard (voter) on central banks and inflation.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0400 (670M), 1.0420-30 (674M), 1.0450 (574M) 1.0495-00 (1.15BLN), 1.0520-30 (365M), 1.0575 (275M) 1.0600 (483M), 10660 (560M) USD/CHF: 0.9600 (240M), 0.9700 (540M). AUD/JPY: 95.60 (407M) AUD/USD: 0.6900 (923M), 0.6980 (229M), 0.7000 (290M) USD/CAD: 1.2850 (390M), 1.2900 (230M), 1.2950 (400M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD trades in a subdued fashion as PMI data continues to weigh Support coming from slower Asian session and bid in risk sentiment Bulls to challenge 1.06 into the end of the week adding support to daily double bottom German IFO main release of note and will likely drive sentiment short term Initial offers are seen at 1.0560 ahead 1.0615 Bids eyed towards 1.0450/70 ahead of cycle lows 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP continues to trade in a tight range, election news does little to excite the market Despite ongoing negative headlines, weak econ data, strikes & partygate GBP holds up Trading should pick up as LDN session starts, traders likely to square books into W/end Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2180 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below JPY retains broad-based bid USD/JPY offered as LDN session gets underway Giving back gains after Gotobi Tokyo fix bids have been absorbed Japanese importer bids seen below 134.50 DTTC option expiries Monday 134.50, 135.00 strikes US yields off lows but retain an offered tone Global equity sentiment improves overnight 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below Rotates around 0.6900 in slower Asian session Soft commodities continue to weigh Near term resistance site at .6950/60 How commodities close out the week will likely drive AUD action 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed back at .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-june-24-2022"
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Market Update – June 24 – USD & Yields slips, Stocks tick higher

USD slips from highs (USDIndex 104.00), Stocks closed higher (NASDAQ +1.62%) Yields slipped again (-1.66%) after no new news from Powell Asian shares stronger (Hang Seng +2.24%, Nikkei +1.23%) Oil holds at lows, Gold dipped & BTC picked up. Ukraine gained EU candidacy status. UK PM Johnson’s Conservatives lost the two by-elections, triggering the resignation of Party Chairman Dowden. European Futs +1.0%. USDJPY cooled further as NZD & AUD outperformed in Asian session.

USDIndex tested 104.50 yesterday before slipping back to 104.00 now.
Equities – USA500 closed +35 (3795), US500FUTS higher at 3824 now.
Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down at 3.133% , trades at 3.018% now.
Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil rallied to $106.80 before slipping back to $104.50 now. Gold spiked to $1845 again but trades at $1822 now on weaker Yields and USD.
Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K, trades at $20.7k now from a test of 21k.
FX markets – EURUSD tested 105.00 yesterday back to 1.0536, USDJPY cooled again to 134.60 now. Cable trades at 1.2270 now, from lows at 1.2170 yesterday, despite by-election results and weak Retail Sales data, UK recession risks are stacking up.

Overnight – Japanese Core CPI inline & unchanged (2.1%) SPPI hotter (1.8%) UK Retail Sales a tick better than expected (-0.5% vs -0.6%) but down significantly from 1.4% last month.

Today – German Ifo, US New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard & Daly, ECB’s de Cos, BoE’s Pill,

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.49%). NZD out performs today. Rallied from 0.62500 test yesterday to 0.6300 now and a key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 56.58 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.00843.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

from HF Analysis /481351/
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ES1!, H4 | Potential Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish Breakout Key Levels:Resistance: 4202.25 Pivot: 3827.75 Support: 3654.00Preference: On the H4, with price moving in an ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 3827.75 in line with the pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection to the 1st resistance at 4202.25 in line with the swing high and 50% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to 1st support at 3654.00 at the horizontal swing low in line with 78.6% fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/es1-h4-or-potential-bullish-momentum"
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EURUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish Bounce Key Levels:Resistance: 1.07724 Pivot: 1.04691 Support: 1.03514Preference: On the H4, with price moving in an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1.04691 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement and pullback support to the 1st resistance at 1.07724 in line with the horizontal swing high and 100% fibonacci projection. Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 1.03514 in line with the multiple swing low and 61.8% fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation24"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 138.669 Pivot: 134.729 Support: 131.492Preference: On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 134.729 in line with the pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance at 138.669 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may break support structure at the pivot and head for 1st support at 131.492 in line with the swing low support, 100% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-for-bullish-momentum"
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