Jennifer Lopez: the American dream on steroids

Jennifer Lopez built a business empire on top of an entertainment career, thereby paving the way for the likes of Reese Witherspoon and Gwyneth Paltrow.

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EU Inflation Breaks to a New High, Driving Higher Recession Risks

Annual inflation in the Eurozone in July accelerated to 8.9%, showed a report released on Friday. This is a new all-time high. In June, inflation was 8.6% and in May, 8.1%.Inflation in the Eurozone has been breaking the record for the ninth month in a row. In July, it beat consensus of 8.6% and was well above the target of 2% set by the European Central Bank.The main driver of inflation this month was rising energy prices due to Russia's operation in Ukraine. However, the rise in prices also affected food and services, which indicates a broadening of inflation from energy to other goods and services.Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, slowed growth in June but jumped to a record 5% in July, according to Eurostat data.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eu-inflation-breaks-to-a-new-high-driving-higher-recession-risks"
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Why Big Tech’s move into medicine is a mistake

The big tech companies have long wanted a slice of the medical action, and now they are moving in. They are making a big mistake and will fae a huge backlash, says Matthew Lynn.

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PayPal: Estimated Q2 Revenue and Share Price Projection

PYPL.s

Fintech giant PayPal Holdings, Inc. is expected to report earnings for the fiscal quarter ending June 2022, on Tuesday (02/08), after market close. The company projects year-on-year revenue growth of 9% at current and currency-neutral spot rates for Q2. The Zacks Consensus forecast for revenue was pegged at $6.76 billion, representing an 8.3% increase from the figure reported in the previous year’s quarter.

PayPal reported non-GAAP earnings of 88 cents per share in Q1 2022, down 28% y/y and 20.7% from the previous quarter. Net revenue of $6.5 billion represents growth y/y of 8% on an FX-neutral basis and 7% on a report basis. Venmo’s strong performance is another positive. Total payout volume (TPV) growth, thanks to a net increase in new active accounts, is driving results.

PayPal projects non-GAAP earnings of 86 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus forecast for earnings is pegged at 85 cents per share, representing a 26.09% decline from the figure reported last year. Furthermore, the figure has moved down 1.2% over the past 30 days. Based on 15 analyst estimates, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.54. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.88.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | PayPal Holdings, Inc. Quote

PayPal’s continued efforts to strengthen its product portfolio may have helped the company gain traction among customers in Q2. It has introduced three new products which are expected to have a positive impact on quarterly performance: The PayPal Cashback credit card, issued by Synchrony, offers unlimited 3% cash back when paying with PayPal at checkout and unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases wherever Mastercard is accepted; The PayPal business credit card, Business Cashback Mastercard, offers 2% cashback on all purchases, and PayPal Pay Monthly, a buy now pay later solution, which allows customers to divide the total cost of goods purchased into monthly payments.

https://investor.pypl.com/home/default.aspx

In general, total payment volume (TPV), active customer accounts, payment transactions per active account, and total number of payment transactions are often considered the main metrics for analyzing PayPal’s business growth.

For Q2, the Zacks Consensus pegged the TPV at $345.01 billion, representing 10.9% year-on-year growth. Active customer accounts are pegged at 433 million, up 7.4% from the figure reported in last year’s quarter. Payment transactions per active account are pegged at 48.69 million, representing an 11.9% growth from the amount reported in last year’s quarter. The total number of payment transactions was pinned at 5.5 billion, representing a 16.5% increase from the figure reported in the previous year’s quarter. Zacks ranks the stock at position #3 (Hold). ¹)

However, the company’s weakening momentum in the international market is expected to be a hindrance. The impact of uncertainty regarding the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and foreign exchange headwinds is likely to be reflected in Q2 results this time around. Investors are concerned that the market may experience a downturn in e-commerce transactions for now, as the world shifts to live shopping. However, PayPal’s growing scale of operations, the addition of Venmo and its somewhat interesting valuation present prospects for the future as digital payments adoption in the long term will continue to grow. Q2 performance is likely to benefit from the strength of the Venmo product line, which is expected to continue to aid customer engagement on the PayPal platform. The company’s CEO highlighted the importance of Venmo by saying that it is an area of growth that PayPal needs to focus on. This is expected to have helped the growth of total active accounts in the quarter under review.

An interesting aspect of Venmo is the partnership between Amazon and PayPal. The collaboration between the two companies will allow customers to check out on Amazon using the Venmo app. This means the Venmo app will be exposed to Amazon’s large customer base, which represents a substantial increase in active users for Venmo. These partnerships may have little impact at the moment, but they could be profitable in the long run and be a significant growth driver for the company.

Technical Overview

#Paypal prices have slumped more than -72% in the last 12 months, due to macroeconomic challenges. The decline matched the December 2017 low (68.11) at the end of June, recording a low of 67.55. And in July, it also recorded a low of 68.50 and formed a double bottom before rebounding upwards.

#Paypal,Daily

The current price position is below the 89.30 resistance. A break of this level will confirm the ongoing rebound. The impetus from a better-than-expected earnings report could pump up the upside to test the 122.78 resistance and the 200-day EMA. The price is currently above the 26-day and 52-day EMAs with daily oscillations in the buy zone and bullish divergence clearly visible. Given the end of the month, some short term liquidation is also possible, if the minor resistance at 89.30 is not broken.

In addition, several equity research analysts recently issued reports on PayPal’s price projections.

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pypl/forecast

Equity analysts at Oppenheimer lowered their Q2 2022 earnings per share estimate for PayPal. They forecast that the credit service provider would post earnings per share of $0.50 for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $0.56, and outperform with a target price of $101.00 on the stock. The consensus estimate for PayPal’s current full-year earnings is $2.56 per share. In addition to Oppenheimer, Morgan Stanley lowered its price target from $137.00 to $129.00 and assigned the company an “overweight” rating. Barclays lowered its target price from $200.00 to $125.00. Truist Financial lowered its target price from $85.00 to $80.00 and assigned a “hold” rating to PayPal. Based on data from MarketBeat, PayPal has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a median target price of $143.12.² TipRanks, based on 22 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for Paypal Holdings in the last 3 months, gives an average price target of $106.11 with a forecast high of $145.00 and a forecast low of $75.00. The average price target represents a 24.66% change from the last price of $85.12.³

.¹). Zack ²). Marketbeat ³).Tipranks

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Investment Bank Outlook 29-07-2022

Credit AgricolePast peak Fed hawkishness and peak USD?The most popular trade of 2022 so far has been to be long the USD, which relies on an increasingly hawkish Fed to continue to push the currency higher. Following the FOMC meeting this week, where the central bank hiked rates by an expected 75bp and pulled the Fed Funds rate into neutral territory, investors are now beginning to question if we are past peak Fed hawkishness and peak USD. Especially following the US logging a ‘technical’ recession in H122.The US economic data, in particular inflation data, will be the ultimate tell-tale sign. After all, while FOMC Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged weaker spending and production, he also said that the Fed was looking for “compelling evidence” of inflation heading lower. So whether or not the Fed has slowed the economy enough to get inflation back under control will be the ultimate arbiter of the peak in the USD. Weakening US economic data and persistent inflation would be a very unfriendly combination for asset markets. The data dependency of the FOMC’s coming rate decisions as well as its meeting-by-meeting approach to rate rises has upped the ante on the US economic data, so the USD will be hyper-sensitive to the US ISM and non-farm payrolls data in the coming week.We also continue to note that if the US economy falls into recession, for it to be an across-the-board negative for the USD, the world’s other large economies (the Eurozone and China), have to help hold up global growth. A tall order given these economies’ challenges–the Ukraine crisis for the former and Covid lockdowns aswell as a weak property sector for the latter. European and Chinese PMI data in the coming week will help assess the economic impacts of these factors. Investors also await any further details on a reported property sector bailout in China.The RBA will continue its own version of super-sized rate hikes and raise its cash rate by 50bp while increasing its inflation and lowering its growth forecast. On Thursday, the BoE is set to join the club of central banks hiking by increments of 50bp, alongside the publication of the August MPR.INGUSD: Not much more room for dovish repricingThe volatile market reaction to yesterday’s poor GDP figures out of the US offered an idea of what we should expect for the coming weeks: an elevated sensitivity of rate expectations and the dollar to incoming data points. In our view, this means that dollar-crosses volatility is unlikely to abate in the near term.Looking at the effective implications of the US falling into a technical recession, we don’t see it going much beyond the 10bp that has been approximately priced out of the Fed curve. After all, the Fed reiterated this week that its focus remains on fighting inflation, and a resilient jobs market is continuing to postpone the prospect of a “real” recession. From an FX perspective, we don’t see the dollar suffering from much more Fed dovish repricing considering the current economic backdrop – only 90bp tightening is priced in by year-end – and more weakness might, if anything, derive from a further rebound in global equities, should investors continue to look at the glass half empty (less scope for Fed tightening) of a US slowdown.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-29-07-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, July 29, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, July 29, 2022 Overnight Headlines Dollar Wallows Near 6-Week Low To Yen On View Fed To Slow Hikes Amazon’s Strong Revenue And Guidance Reassure Wall Street Apple Ekes Out Revenue Growth On iPhone Sales And Services Asian Stocks Mixed As China Shares Slide On Lack Of New Stimulus BoJ Members Warn Of Global Slowdown, Urge Stimulus Stay In Place Japan On Track For Modest Recovery For Now After Output Jump IMF Downgrades Asia Pacific Forecast As Shocks Keep Rolling China FX Watchdog To Step Up Monitoring Cross-Border Flows In H2 UK Business Confidence Falls As Firms Worry About Economic Slump Global Bonds Surge In Best Month Since 2020 On Recession Fears Oil Steady As Market Weighs Tight Supply Against Recession Fears Citi Says Oil Market May Be Starting To Inflect To Bearish PathThe Day Ahead Asian equity market performance is mixed this morning despite yesterday’s rise in US equities. Futures prices point to further gains in the US today reflecting better earnings reports from Amazon and Apple. The release of US Q2 GDP figures which showed a second consecutive fall in quarterly GDP led to comments that the US is in ‘technical’ recession. However, US Treasury Sec. Yellen said that “we are not seeing a broad-based weakening of the economy.” The US and Chinese Presidents are reported to be planning a face-to-face meeting. Japan CPI inflation picked up by more than expected in July reflecting higher energy and food prices, and a weaker yen. The July Lloyds Business Barometer, which was released earlier this morning, showed a further fall in business confidence taking it below the long-term average. The decline was most marked for large companies and primarily reflected growing concerns about the overall economy as firms views about their own trading conditions remained relatively upbeat. Hiring intentions were also positive although they have moderated somewhat. But there is still little sign of wage or price pressures easing. Today’s busy data calendar includes GDP and inflation data for the Eurozone. Q2 GDP growth is expected to have slowed sharply from its pace in Q1 and, there is a case that as in the US, output may have fallen during the quarter. Annual Eurozone CPI inflation for July is expected to post a modest fall when compared to June. That is primarily due to the fall in energy prices during the month. In contrast, the ‘core’ measure is expected to pick up slightly - an indication that inflationary pressures may be broadening out. Yesterday, German CPI data for June showed an unexpected acceleration, which points to potential upside risks for today’s report. French & Spanish printss will also be released before the Eurozone numbers. In the UK, Bank of England money supply and bank lending data is the only release of note. They may provide new insight into the strength of the housing market and into whether consumers and businesses have raised borrowing to tide themselves through the current cost of living squeeze on incomes. However, the data will probably receive only limited market attention as the main focus is on next week’s BoE policy update. In the US, the June reading for the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer price inflation is predicted to record another rise, taking it even further above the Fed’s inflation target. Finally, the employment cost index, an important measure of wages, is expected to post a deceleration in Q2 but still show labour costs growing at an uncomfortably rapid pace.CitiQuant month-end rebalancing model points to net USD selling Citi note that the estimated outflows from US equities make up the most of the rebalancing need in equities, followed by Japanese equities. Citi add that most other equity and bond markets may see rebalancing inflows. The USD sell signal strength is in line with the historical norm across all currencies other than EUR/USD. "The signal to buy EUR and sell USD is weakest at 0.7 standard deviations because good performance of Euro Area fixed income may also lead to foreign EUR selling to hedge those gains.With the exceptions of GBP and NZD, we haven’t seen significant net real money buying of other currencies in the past week, potentially suggesting little or no front loading of rebalancing trades so far"FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0050 (1.11B), 1.0125 (658M), 1.0200 (824M), 1.0205 (838M) EUR/USD: 1.0245 (1.28B), 1.0250 (1.80B), 1.0300-05 (1.30B) EUR/CHF: 0.9700 (702M), 0.9900 (1.0B) USD/JPY: 128.50 (3.23B), 130.00 (580M), 132.50 (675M)) GBP/USD: 1.1700 (486M), 1.2100 (1.0B). EUR/GBP: 0.8795-0.8800 (420M) USD/CAD: 1.2695 (435M), 1.2830 (630M), 1.2920-30 (974M), 1.3195 (671M) AUD/USD: 0.6750 (401M), 0.7000 (376M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 Month end flows often lead to random moves especially in Europe Ukraine conflict shows no signs of a resolution Plenty of EZ data today with flash Q2 GDP and EZ inflation to be released Resistance 1.0250/60 stronger offers seen to 1.0350/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2280 Inflation hits UK business confidence, lowest since March 2021 Drawn out transition to a new PM the last thing the economy needs Sterling is often volatile at month end in Europe, though steady in Asia GBP traders unsure of +25 or +50 at Aug 4 MPC Offers sited at 1.2280/1.23 bids 1.2090 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bearish below 134 Slides in the Asian session taking out pivotal 134 support Move came in relatively thin, summer holiday-affected pre-weekend trade Stops fuelled move down, many forced to chase market lower on lack of bids Newly minted bears target a test of 130 Offers see at 134 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 Risk assets rallied in Asia with strong after-hour results from Apple and Amazon helping US June PCE, Q2 employment costs will be key data risks for Friday Offer at .70 being eroded as price is accepted above .70 bulls target .71 test AUD/USD support now sited at .6950/40 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC back above 24k on improving risk sentiment Rally puts price back into the VWAPuptrend channel Southeast Asia-focused crypto exchange Zipmex filed for bankruptcy protection Crypto assets need new rights in law, UK legal body says Bulls need a close above 25k to gain significant upside momentum Closing below 21k will be a noteworthy downside development 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-july-29-2022"
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Market Update – July 29 – Stocks Up, USD lower on final trading day of the month

USDIndex sinks again tanked to 105.75, from 106.80.  The US is in a technical recession (2 consecutive quarters of contraction) Q2 GDP -0.9% (Q1 -1.6%), and GDP Inflation rose to 8.7% from 8.0%) but Unemployment remains very low and job creation (Claims fell to 256K from 261k) and wage growth are strong.  US Stocks rallied another 1%+ on expectations of slower rate hikes. AMZN +1.08% & APPL+0.36%, both beat Earnings after hours, shares were up 3% & 12%, respectively. Meta -5.2% & QCOM -4.54%.  Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -2.02%, Nikkei -0.03%). European FUTS higher. Yields continue to see-saw, today -1.94%, Oil under $97, Gold breached $1760  and BTC moved up to $24k.

Biden & Xi Biden & Xi meeting skirted Taiwan talk, Ukrainian forces plan counterattacks in the South, Russia shells Kiev.

• USDIndex weakens further to 105.45 now. YEN outperforms again in Asian session.
• Equities – USA500 closed higher +48.8 pts (+1.21%) (4072), US500FUTS at 4105 now. Bears being squeezed, 10 days north of 20-day MA. 4175 next key resistance 
• Yields 10-year yield dived into close to 2.681%, recovered to 2.67% now. 
• Oil – peaked at $99.80 yesterday down to test $96.00 before recovering to $97.00 now. 
• Gold – breached & broke key 20-day MA ($1745) and $1750. Trades at $1765 now.
• Bitcoin also rallied on weaker USD to trade at $24.1K now. 
• FX Markets – EURUSD rallied to test 1.0250 on EZ are news, USDJPY dived 1% under 133.00 to 132.75. Cable broke 1.2200 and trades at 1.2225.  

Overnight – JPY Tokyo Inflation hotter, Retail Sales, Housing Starts & Consumer Confidence weaker, AUD PPI inline, French GDP better, German Import Prices in line.

Today – German Flash GDP & Unemployment, EZ Flash CPI and Flash Q2 GDP, US Jun PCE, US Chicago PMI, Canadian GDP.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-1.13%). Breached key technical level at 133.00 today and tests 132.50. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 31.55 & falling,  H1 ATR 0.361, Daily ATR 1.225.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

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Danone Opens Higher After Management Raises Growth Outlook

Danone, an infant formula manufacturer based in Ireland which leads the market in both dairy and plant-based product categories, as well as operating other businesses in waters, infant and adult nutrition, saw its stock price jump over 2.5% overnight after the company raised its 2022 sales revenue growth outlook .

Fig.1: Key Figures Six-month Period Ended June 30. Source: Danone Financial Report.

Based on its latest interim financial report, like-for-like (LFL) sales in Q2 2022 were up over 7%, resulting in +7.4% net sales (or €13.3B) for the first half of 2022.  Recurring EPS was up +7.2% (y/y) to €1.63, while recurring operating margin stood at 12.1%.

Danone has businesses around the globe. By region, sales growth of the company in the first half of 2022 are +9.7% (Rest of the World), +8.3% (China, North Asia & Oceania), +7.2% (North America) and +5.4% (Europe). Despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict (Russia is the fifth largest market to Danone in terms of contribution to sales), the management remains optimistic and raised its sales guidance to between +5% and +6% (previously was +3% to +5%).

In fact, Danone has been actively developing different types of products to stay competitive worldwide. These include plant-based formula (to satisfy the demand of flexitarians and vegetarians), protein bars, ageing powder drinks, etc. Its strategy in partnering with various e-commerce platforms has further scaled its presence, bringing a greater variety of offerings to consumers worldwide.

Technical Analysis:

The Daily chart shows #Danone gapped up higher at market open today, before giving up its gains and retracing lower back to €55. Above the current price lies the FR 50.0% level, at €55.88. This level shall confirm whether the formation of head and shoulder pattern is successful. A closure above the level would deem the pattern a failure, thus opening up more upside room towards the next resistance at  €58.10 and €61.26. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below the FR 50.0%, the 100-day SMA at €53.66 may serve as the nearest support, followed by €50.91 and €46.47.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Malaysia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Market sentiment is at a low ebb – is it time to buy?

Fund managers feel as pessimistic now as they did in 2008 and early 2020. So is it time to fill your boots?

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The wolf returns to the eurozone’s door

The eurozone’s intrinsic flaws have been exposed again as investors’ fears about Italy’s ability to pay its debt sends bond yields soaring.

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Fed Signals Increasing Policy Flexibility, Euro Takes Dovish Clues from Persistent Inflation

US equities rose, and the near end of the yield curve fell following the Fed meeting (2-year Notes 3.1% -> 2.99%), as the Fed rhetoric began to shift from high inflation to a potential economic slowdown due to policy tightening. Recall that in May and June, the comments of the Fed officials, including chair Powell, tried to convince the markets that the Fed was throwing all its efforts into fighting inflation and unfortunately, the US economy will have to pay the high price in terms of slowing growth rates. At the time, equity and dollar markets traded the idea that the Fed was tightening when the US expansion started to show its first cracks, which could potentially exacerbate a downturn. However, data on June retail sales (+1% MoM), U. Michigan inflation expectations (7.9% -> 7.6%) and US gasoline prices in July showed that a favorable mix of still decent growth rates and slowing inflation is emerging in the economy, which should, in theory, increase Fed flexibility and help the central bank to slow down a costly tightening process. The Fed's vague forward guidance outlined yesterday and the move away from a front-loaded tightening approach in favor of a data-oriented one (the ECB did the same at the last meeting) had two important consequences: the dollar and markets in general should become more sensitive to incoming data that will pave the way for the next Fed decision, and the risks of a dovish Fed tweak at the upcoming meetings, increased.Analyzing the probability distribution of how much the Fed rate will rise by the end of the year, it can be seen that the 100 bp outcome still has the highest probability, but the probability of a 75 bp outcome increased while the odds of a 125 bp and higher outcome decreased, signaling a dovish market interpretation of yesterday’s FOMC meeting:Today's release of US GDP data will be the first test of the dollar's reaction function to incoming data. The consensus forecast is 0.5% QoQ in the second quarter, but data on firm inventories and foreign trade point to downside risks.The release of the Durable Goods Orders report yesterday underpinned the demand for risk, as the figure was well above the forecast - growth in June was 1.9% MoM, against the forecast of -0.5%. Apparently, good dynamics were ensured by the growth of orders in the defense sector, excluding orders in this sector, the gain was 0.5% against the forecast of 0.2%. Orders for durable goods is the function of consumer expectations, as they are expensive purchases, so the better-than-expected print provided additional positive information on household expectations.Inflation data in Germany disappointed, the report showed today that inflation slowed down from 7.6% to 7.5%, missing the forecast of 7.4%. At the same time, the price level increased by 0.9% MoM, falling short of 0.6%. Considering that the ECB at the last meeting signaled that the significance of incoming data in policy is increasing, the initial negative reaction of the EURUSD to the report is likely to gain momentum.From a technical point of view, the potential reversal of the EURUSD after the parity test began to fade - the price, after the rebound to 1.025, fluctuates in the range of 1.02-1.01, slowly sliding down against the backdrop of negative news on inflation and growing risks of an energy crisis, especially in light of the news about declining gas flows from the Russian Federation via the Nord Stream 1. As I wrote in the previous article, the risks in this story are skewed towards further escalation, and therefore there should definitely be a bearish bias due to concerns of slowing activity on the back of lower gas consumption and likely higher inflation in the coming months. The pair is in a clear bearish trend and, as we know, without meeting resistance, the trend tends to continue. There are no resistance factors yet, so the downward movement should rather be considered as a continuation of the bearish trend:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fed-signals-increasing-policy-flexibility-euro-takes-dovish-clues-from-persistent-inflation"
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EURNZD: ZE and EU Economic Sentiment weighs on EURO

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 103.5 to 99.0 in July. Industry confidence fell from 7.0 to 3.5. Services confidence fell from 104.1 to 101.7. Consumer confidence fell from -23.8 to -27.0. Retail trade confidence fell from -5.2 to -6.8. Construction confidence fell from 103.5 to 99.0. The Employment Expectation Indicator fell from 110.2 to 107.0.

Economic Sentiment

The EU Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 101.8 to 97.6. The Employment Expectation Indicator fell from 110.2 to 106.6. In the European Union, the decline in the ESI in July was due to significant losses in industry, services, retail trade and consumer confidence, while confidence in construction declined more slightly. The ESI fell sharply in four of the EU’s six largest economies, Spain (-5.0), Germany (-4.9), Italy (-3.4) and Poland (-3.2), while remaining generally stable in France (-0.1) and the Netherlands (+0.2). ¹) It is seen that this sentiment data report put pressure on the EUR in Thursday’s trading.

Meanwhile, in New Zealand ANZ’s business confidence increased from -62.6 to -56.7 in July. The outlook for own activity rose from -9.1 to -8.7. Employment intentions rose from 0.7 to 1.1. Price intention rose from 73.7 to 74.0. Inflation expectations rose from 6.02 to 6.23.

ANZ said most activity indicators were little changed, but housing construction intentions plunged back to a new record low (-73.7). Inflationary pressures remain strong, but may have peaked.

Technical Outlook

The EURNZD currency pair in trading Thursday (28/07) in the European session experienced another decline. The pair is still in bear dominance, having rebounded at 1.5592 unable to maintain its upward bias, despite having attempted to move higher twice by forming price peaks at 1.6839 and 1.6966. The intraday bias remains to the south side, with the possibility to test the 1.5928 price level before equalizing at 1.5592 lows. The price position is still below the 200-day exponential moving average and oscillations are still in the sell zone.

EURNZD, H8

On the upside, a move above the minor resistance 1.6547 will confuse the outlook. However, as long as the trade is still below the price resistance structure of 1.7357, the prospect remains bearish.

¹). https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-07/bcs_2022_07_statistical_annex_en.pdf

²). ANZ-BusinessOutlook-20220728.pdf

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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JAPANESE YEN FUTURES ( 6J1! ), H4 Potential For Bearish Momentum

Type: Bullish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 0.007487Pivot: 0.007400Support: 0.007309Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and in an ascending trend channel and RSI showing an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 0.007400 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st resistance at 0.007487 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 0.007309 at the overlap support in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said that the Japanese government is concerned about the Yen’s recent rapid weakening, giving us a bearish bias on the Japanese Yen.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/japanese-yen-futures-6j1-h4-potential-for-bearish-momentum28"
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Micro USD/JPY Futures (M6J1!), H4 Potential For Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 136.42Pivot: 135.00Support: 133.53Preferred Case:On the H4, since price has broken out of an ascending trendline and is moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 135.00 where the pullback resistance is to 1st support at 133.53 in line with swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 136.42 where the pullback resistance is.Fundamentals:The weakening of the DXY should provide relief for the Japanese businesses that are hurt from the weakening of the Yen. This gives me a bullish bias for USDJPY .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/micro-usd-jpy-futures-m6j1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop28"
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NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 0.63185Pivot: 0.62470Support: 0.61850Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel, RSI moving in an ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.62490 where the overlap support is to the 1st resistance at 0.63825 where the swing high resistance is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could reverse off pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.61955 where the overlap support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement is.Fundamentals:No Major News

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/new-zealand-dollar-futures-6n1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise28"
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Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures(MCL1!),H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 100.74Pivot: 98.96Support: 97.95Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 98.96 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 100.74 where the swing high resistance, -27.2% fibonacci expansion , 127.2% fibonacci extension and 100% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 97.95 where the pullback support is.Fundamentals:Due to the weakness in DXY , we have a bullish view on Crude Oil .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/micro-wti-crude-oil-futures-mcl1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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The Crude Chronicles - Episode 146

Oil Traders Increase Longs The latest CFTC COT institutional positioning report shows that oil traders increased their net-long positions last week for first time in a month. Overall upside bets were increased to 271k contracts from 268k contracts previously. While the move does little to rebalance the massive reduction in upside exposure seen over recent months, it is important nonetheless and might signal a near-term turning point for oil prices if bulls continue to add to upside positions this week.Weaker USD Helping Oil PricesRecent price action has reflected this pause in downward positioning momentum. Crude prices have been stalled along the 95.93 level support. The pullback in the US Dollar over recent weeks has been a big help for oil bulls. Ahead of the FOMC, some pushback against the idea of a larger 1% rate hike helped soften the Dollar, allowing commodities prices (oil included) some room to breathe.More Neutral Tone at FOMCThis USD weakness has persisted this week, helped by yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The Fed stuck to the previously signalled .75% hike and sounded less hawkish in its forward guidance. Fed chairman Powell noted that inflation was still well above target but said that rates were now broadly around the area the bank would consider neutral. Powell acknowledged too that economic activity in the US is slowing though reassured markets that the US is not yet in recession.Powell’s comments appeared to leave plenty of room for Fed action in either direction. Given slowing economic activity, some have interpreted the comments as a sign that the Fed will begin slowing down the pace of further hikes this year. However, Powell himself warned that inflation doesn’t moderate in coming months, the Fed stands to ready to do more, including further “unusually large” hikes if necessary.Recession Fears Weighing on Oil Sentiment Consequently, the outlook for oil prices is not clear. Fears of a recession and higher US rates are clearly negative for oil demand. However, if the Fed is right in its optimism and the US economy can avoid a recession and if rate hikes do begin to slow with a moderation in inflation, this would allow oil prices room to rebound. Alternatively, if a recession does materialise or if the Fed is seen having to continue hiking above the neutral rate to battle inflation, this will no doubt weigh on oil prices.EIA Reports Large Drawdown The latest report from the Energy Information Administration this week had good news for crude bulls. The EIA reported a massive 4.5 million barrel drawdown, three times the size of the expected decline in inventories, reflecting better demand last week. Additionally, gasoline stores were also seen falling by over 3 million barrels, assuaging market concerns on the back of a large surplus the prior week.Technical ViewsCrude OilThe sell-off in crude oil over recent months has seen the market trading lower within a well-defined bear channel. The decline has recently stalled along the 95.93 level support and, with both MACD and RSI turning higher, there is potential for a reversal higher if bulls can get above the 103.80 level near-term. To the downside, a break of the 95.93 level will open the way for a test of 83.75.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crude-chronicles-episode-146"
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Investment Bank Outlook 28-07-2022

Credit AgricoleA second 75bp hike to curb inflationAs widely expected, the Fed delivered a second 75bp rate hike in its fight against four-decade high inflation prints, taking the policy rate to 2.25-2.50% in a unanimous vote. FOMC officials remain “highly attentive” to inflation risks, maintaining a laser focus on returning inflation back to target.Looking ahead, the statement offered unchanged guidance stating that the “FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate”, which clearly signals that more tightening is on the way, though leaves the Fed’s options open by not committing to any specific path.Chair Jerome Powell followed this up by suggesting at his press conference that another unusually large rate increase would depend on incoming data, but it would be appropriate to slow the pace of hikes at some point. Powell reiterated that the FOMC is looking for “compelling evidence” of inflation moving down.However, given significantly higher uncertainty than usual, Powell also noted that the Fed will offer “less clear guidance” on future rate decisions, which will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis depending on the data. This makes sense to us as the Fed would prefer to avoid another situation like the June meeting, when Committee members had explicitly signalled a preference for a 50bp hike before switching to 75bp at the last minute. As a result, the Fed will continue to offer guidance, though will stress data dependence and avoid committing to a specific path.That said, Powell did note that the Fed sees “significant additional tightening” in the pipeline as rates move to a “moderately restrictive” stance by the end of the year. While he was clear that it will be updated at the following meeting and should not be taken as set in stone, he pointed to the latest dot plot as a rough guide, which shows rates hitting a 3.25-3.50% target range by yearend and modest additional tightening in 2023.The market pricing of the terminal policy rate has evolved over the past couple of months, from as high as 4.00% to the latest 3.30%, as the market has transitioned from inflation fears to recession angst. Additionally, the market sees the Fed cutting rates in 2023, potentially as soon as March, with rates dipping below 3% by yearend.We currently see the Fed raising rates to3.50-3.75% by yearend 2022, with a 50bp hike at the upcoming September meeting, though another 75bp move remains a risk. That said, we are less convinced that the Fed will cut in 2023 and instead see it remaining on hold despite softening data as it continues to place a higher weight on the inflation side of the mandate.In its statement, the FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in the economy, highlightingsofteningspendingandproduction,butnotedthatthelabour market has remained robust. Inflation has stayed high, due to Covid-related supply/demand imbalances plus higher energy prices and broader price pressures.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-28-07-2022"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 136.697Pivot: 134.516Support: 131.464Preferred Case:On the H4, with price broken out of the ascending trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our pivot at 134.516 where the swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to the 1st support at 131.464 where the swing low support is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could head for 1st resistance at 136.697 where the overlap resistance is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation28"
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Daily Market Outlook, July 28, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, July 28, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed Raises Rates By 0.75 Points For Second Month In A Row US Expected To Dodge Technical Recession With Weak Q2 Growth Australia’s Retail Sales Cool As Rising Rates, Prices Take Toll Australia Cuts GDP Growth Outlook On Inflation, Higher Rates BoJ Dep Gov Amamiya: BoJ Needs To Continue With Easing China Paper Sees Low Chance of Further Drop in Short-Term Rates N.Korea's Kim: Country Ready To Mobilise Nuclear War Deterrent Joe Manchin Backs Senate Deal On Tax, Spending And Climate Yen Climbs To Strongest Level In Three Weeks As Dollar Drops Oil Extends Gains After US Crude Stockpiles Drop, Exports Soar BofA Sees Japan Voiding Treasuries As Hedge Costs Erase Yields Most Asia Stock Indexes In The Green, US Futures In The Red Samsung Electronics Q2 Net Profit Up 15.2 Pct On Strong Chip Biz Facebook-Parent Meta Forecasts Revenue Below EstimatesThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mostly up this morning but the gains are generally smaller than those seen in US equities yesterday. As expected, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points yesterday, the fourth consecutive increase. Fed Chair Powell warned of further rate rises but markets seemed to take comfort from hints that the pace of tightening may now slow. However, former New York Fed President Dudley warned that financial markets are under-estimating just how far the Fed will go. US President Biden will talk with Chinese President Xi today. Meanwhile, Russia has signalled more problems with gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline. The Q2 US GDP release seems set to provide further confirmation that growth disappointed in H1. The unexpected fall in Q1 GDP was generally thought at the time not to be a major concern as both consumer and investment spending had speeded up. However, retail sales fell in real terms in Q2 and overall consumer spending growth seems to have been modest, while business investment also slowed. Q2 growth is now forecast to be only a very modest 0.5% annualised rise and there is a risk of a second quarterly decline. Eurozone GDP data for Q2 due early tomorrow is expected to show only modest growth, at best. Ahead of that, July industrial and service sector confidence data for the Eurozone are due today. Given the falls seen in already released PMI and German IFO measures it seems likely that both of the confidence measures will have fallen. Today’s July German CPI report will be watched for clues on tomorrow’s outturn for the Eurozone as a whole. Annual headline inflation is expected to have slipped modestly compared to June, primarily due to the slide in energy prices. However, given the recent rebound in gas prices that trend seems unlikely to continue in the near term. Meanwhile, ‘core’ inflation is expected to be up modestly possibly suggesting a broadening out in inflationary pressures. It’s been a light week for UK data but the Lloyds Business Barometer, which is out early Friday, could provide some interesting new insights. So far it has showed business confidence holding up relatively well this year, but the June headline reading did fall by 10 points. Nevertheless, that still only took it back down to its long-term average so the July measure will be watched keenly for indications of further slippage.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0050-55 (547M), 1.0200 (844M), 1.0250 (620M), 1.0300-05 (1.30B) USD/JPY: 136.20 (1.40B). NZD/USD: 0.6000 (857M), 0.6075 (495M) AUD/USD: 0.7000 (325M), 0.7020-25 (463M), 0.7150 (414M) USD/CAD: 1.2810 (810M), 1.2850-55 (902M), 1.2915 (540M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 Fading after early JPY bid supported EUR/JPY pulling back and weighing, Tokyo's reaction to the FOMC Far-right leader Giorgia Meloni in pole position for Italian PM Market weighing response to a potential Italian shift to the right impacts the EU Resistance 1.0250/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 Price continues to rotate around the 20 Day Bearish VWAP 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2280 Bid in Asain session testing towards pivotal 1.22 Mixed UK data - strong car production in June Weak outlook for UK commercial real estate according to RICS GBP traders unsure of +25 or +50 at Aug 4 MPC Offers sited at 1.22 bids 1.2090 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 134 Slides in the Asain session as JPY bears weigh Fed rate expectations USD/JPY drops 0.8%, weighed down by broad reduction of short JPY positions Undermined by Fed flagging softening of economy after raising rates 75bps Tokyo traders sell from the outset, triggering stops at 135.90-136.00 Offers sited 137.30/50 bids at 135.10 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 Rally capped by retail sales miss combined with, AUD/JPY supply AU June retail sales +0.2% m/m against 0.5% expected AUD bid by less hawkish than expected Powell Wednesday Commodity recovery adds support iron ore up 3.5% Thursday Iron Ore recovered 20% from July 20 low Offers sited .7000/10 AUD/USD support is at Friday's 0.6876 low and break targets 0.6840/45 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC surges 8.0% Wed as FOMC delivers expected hike Rally puts price back into the VWAP uptrend channel But that might not be enough to keep momentum going Bulls need a close above 25k to gain significant upside momentum Closing below 21k will be a noteworthy downside development 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-july-28-2022"
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Market Update – July 28 – Stocks & Treasuries Rally, USD dives post FOMC

USDIndex tanked over a whole big number to 106.00, from 107.25 as the FED raised interest rates 75bp (its 4th rise in 2022). Ongoing rises will be be “appropriate” and they are “highly attentive” to Inflation. However, Powell gave no notice as weather 50bp or 75bp in September was appropriate*. US Stocks rallied hard** (NASDAQ +4.06%), betting on 50bp. NVDA+7.60, AMZN+5.37%, TSLA+6.17%. However, after hours Meta +6.55% posted a 1% DECLINE in Revenue (the first in its history), shares dropped -4.65%.  Asian markets mixed (1 million in Wuhan in lockdown again) (Hang Seng -0.35%, Nikkei +0.23%). European FUTS higher. Yields up again +1.78%,  Oil rallied to $98, Gold higher at $1740 and BTC moved up to $23k.

Biden & Xi due to speak today, Manchin (the Dem. Senator holding up Biden’s climate Bill) backs down. PBOC to pump $148bn to stabilize real estate sector.

• USDIndex weakens further to 105.92 now. YEN outperforms in Asian session.
• Equities – USA500 closed higher +102.56 pts (+2.62%) (4023), US500FUTS at 34019 now. 4th 8%+ rally of the year, previous 3 have resulted in lower lows..is the bottom in or is it a dead cat bounce? 
• Yields 10-year yield dived into close  2.734%, recovered to 2.78% now. 
• Oil – in–focus again as inventories had a 4.5m drawdown vs 1.5m, rallied to $98.90. 
• Gold weaker USD also helped lift the precious metal to $1740 highs currently from $1711 lows yesterday. 
• Bitcoin also rallied to trade at $23.1K now. 
• FX Markets – EURUSD rallied from within 7 pips of 1.0100 yesterday to trade at 1.0227, USDJPY dived under 135.30 now, from 137.50 yesterday. Cable broke resistance at 1.2080 to trade to 1.2180 now. 

Overnight – NZD Business Confidence improves (-56.7 vs -62.6) AUD Import Prices slip and Retail Sales miss significantly (0.2% vs 0.9%) 

Today – German CPIs, US Q2 GDP Advance, Q2 PCE. Earnings from Barclays, Anglo American, Nestle, EDF, L’Oréal, Amazon, Apple, Intel, and many more.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.87%). Rejected 137.50 yesterday and tested to 135.15 lows earlier. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 31.55 & falling,  H1 ATR 0.361, Daily ATR 1.225.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /497371/
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SOYBEAN，H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 1652.38Pivot: 1565.69Support: 1493.93Preferred Case:On the H4, with price recently breaking out of the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 1565.69 at the pullback support in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 1652.38 at the swing high in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 1493.93 at the pullback support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
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Trading: Dunelm will keep growing, here's how to play it

Furniture retailer Dunelm surged during the pandemic, but its shares have since fallen back. But it is well placed to take more market share from rivals, says Matthew Partridge. Here, he explains how to play the Dunelm share price.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/trading/605167/trading-dunelm-will-keep-growing-heres-how-to-play-it
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Preview of the FOMC Meeting: Hints on Interest Rate Path in 4Q Could be the Key Thing to Watch

Greenback index continues to consolidate in a tight range on Wednesday in the run-up to the FOMC meeting. The range has been forming for about a week and indicates short-term equilibrium in USD supply and demand before the release of key market information. The presence of the pattern suggests that a breakout on Fed information will indicate the direction of a fresh trend leg. From a technical perspective, the market looks poised to test the lower edge of the channel (105.70-106) before possible resumption of the upside:The risk of surprise in the policy today is quite low, according to Fed funds rate futures, the chance of a 75 bp rate hike is more than 90%. At least two Fed speakers stated unequivocally that they will vote for 75bp, leaning towards the idea that the US inflation spike in June above 9% was transitory. In addition, data from the U. Michigan showed that inflation expectations declined in July, which in fact is one of the key goals of the Fed’s monetary tightening. It’s also important to note that the Fed rarely goes against market consensus, so most likely today we will see a rate hike of 75 bp and a lack of significant market reaction to this outcome.Instead, market participants can focus on hints that may help to assess the size of rate hikes in 4Q meetings. Current consensus on market estimate of the rate path suggests that the Fed will deliver 50 bp in September and 25 bp in November and December. Any surprises in this direction will likely determine short-term demand for USD and US Treasuries of shorter maturity.The Fed will not release updated economic forecasts or a Dot Plot at today's meeting, so keep in mind that Powell's press conference and FOMC statement will be the main sources of information.The Conference Board's report on consumer confidence, released yesterday, pointed to a weakening US expansion in the third quarter. The key indicator has been declining for the third month in a row, although not as fast as in June. The current conditions index, based on consumer assessments of business prospects and the state of the labor market, fell from 147.2 to 141.3 points. The Expectations Index also moved lower, but the decline turned out to be insignificant - from 65.8 to 65.3 points:Inflation expectations, according to the CB report, fell to 7.6% from 7.9% in June.The moderately weak report and the signal of easing inflation expectations have become another argument in favor of the fact that the Fed will be cautious today, raising the rate by 75 bp and will likely hint at a slowdown in the pace of policy tightening in line with current expectations.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/preview-of-the-fomc-meeting-hints-on-interest-rate-path-in-4q-could-be-the-key-thing-to-watch"
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10 Year US T-Note Futures (TN1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 131'06'0Pivot: 130'00'0Support: 128'12'0Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 130'00'0 where the pullback resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken the pivot , we would expect bullish momentum to carry prices to 1st resistance at 131'06'0 where the swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 127.2% fibonacci extension .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 128'12'0 where the pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:No Major News

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/10-year-us-t-note-futures-tn1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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Walmart’s latest shock profit warning tells us a lot about the post-pandemic world

US retail giant Walmart has issued its second profit warning in ten weeks as consumer spending habits shift. That’s bad news for Walmart, says John Stepek – but is it bad news for the rest of the economy?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/retail-stocks/605164/walmart-profit-warning-bad-news-for-the-economy
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Downside USD Risks Into FOMC?

USD Off Highs Ahead of FOMCAhead of the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day FOMC meeting later, the question traders are grappling with is whether the Dollar has room to run higher here? The Dollar Index is around 12% higher on the year, sitting just off the highs printed earlier in the month. Much of the recent correction was fuelled by two Fed members pushing back against the idea of a larger 1% hike on the back of record inflation in June. Following the larger-than-signalled .75% hike in June, traders began adjusting their rates view higher for this month until those comments from Waller and Bullard.The reaction to those comments shows just how elevated USD upside positioning has become as well as the sensitivity in markets as traders seek to gauge when the Fed is likely to begin slowing the pace of hikes or even pausing tightening altogether. That time might soon be approaching.Consumer Confidence Drops in JuneThe latest data yesterday showed consumer confidence cratering once again last month. With inflation soaring and financial conditions tightening, fears of a slowdown are growing. We’ve also seen a slew of big US companies issuing profit warnings and or undershooting earnings forecasts. Walmart downgrading its profit outlook yesterday has been viewed as a clear warning sign over recession risks.Traders will therefore be paying close attention to the Fed’s outlook and forward guidance today. Regardless of whether the Fed opts for a .75% or 1% hike, the larger market impact is likely to come from its comments around growth concerns and recession fears.Recession Fears in FocusIf the Fed is seen sounding more alarmed over economic conditions and the growth outlook, this might well fuel a reduction in traders rate projections over the rest of the year. In particular, any signal that the Fed is willing to reduce the size of its rate increases from September would likely weigh heavily on USD near-term. Indeed, USD has fallen following six of the last eight Fed rate hikes, raising downside risks for the Dollar into today’s meeting.Technical ViewsDollar IndexDXY has been moving higher within a broad bullish channel this year. However, recent peaks have seen plenty of bearish divergence on momentum studies, raising reversal risks. Price is currently being underpinned by a bullish trend line within the channel. If 105.70 breaks, this might be the signifier for a deeper move towards 104.03 initially. Topside, 108.77 is the level for bulls to break.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/downside-usd-risks-into-fomc"
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Beware of cheap emerging markets

Emerging markets look cheap, but tread carefully – they tend to be highly cyclical and a global recession would weigh heavily on them.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/emerging-markets/605161/beware-of-cheap-emerging-markets
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Who will follow Sri Lanka into a debt crisis?

Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt in May as soaring global food prices and a tourism slowdown collided with years of profligate state spending. Which countries could follow?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/emerging-markets/605162/who-will-follow-sri-lanka-into-a-debt-crisis
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Investment Bank Outlook 27-02-2022

Credit AgricoleCould the US economy already be in recession?The advance Q2 GDP report is set for release later this week, and while the Bloomberg consensus and our own forecast sit in positive territory, other models are tracking a negative print. If so, this would represent a second consecutive contraction, which is sometimes referred to as a “technical recession”.However, the official arbiter of recessions in the US is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months”.In the committee’s definition, there is no mention of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Instead, the NBER relies on a variety of monthly indicators including real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, real personal consumption expenditures, employment in the household survey, and industrial production.A closer examination of these measures shows that all of these metrics are above levels typically associated with recession, in some cases significantly so. With the NBER’s usual indicators not consistent with recession at the moment, we believe it is unlikely the NBER will determine that the US was in recession in H122, even if Q2 GDP shows a second consecutive contraction.To be clear, this analysis is not meant to rule out recession. Economic activity has exhibited a clear slowdown in momentum through Q222 and, with inflation stubbornly elevated and the Fed tightening aggressively, we expect further slowdown into next year, making recession a real possibility. However, if a recession does arrive, we expect that to happen late in the year or into 2023 as opposed to already being here.INGUSD: Post-FOMC correction possible, but likely shortThe dollar enjoyed a corrective rally yesterday, rising mostly against European currencies as market fears about a gas crunch in Europe rose further (more in the EUR section below). Also contributing to the dollar move were some shockwaves sent across equity markets from US earnings jitters, and possible market positioning ahead of today’s FOMC.We suspect this pre-FOMC dollar rally has reduced the scope for a positive impact on USD today. A dollar correction after the FOMC announcement would not be out of the ordinary after all: when looking at the six hours after previous rate announcements, the DXY index dropped in six of the last eight occasions.EUR: A grimmer outlookThe euro has come under pressure with other European currencies as Russia is reportedly planning to keep squeezing gas flows into Europe, keeping them at minimal levels as long as the standoff over Ukraine persists. Meanwhile, EU members agreed on emergency plans based on a 15% gas consumption cut – even though some exceptions will be considered.The message that is being conveyed to markets at the moment is that what used to be a black swan risk has now morphed into a very tangible and constant threat. A complete shutdown of gas supply from Russia to the EU is now looking much more likely, and something that is unequivocally being priced into European assets.In FX, the euro, Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are looking particularly vulnerable. When it comes to EUR/USD, we could see a small correction higher (to 1.0170-1.0200) thanks to some “sell-the-fact” reaction after the FOMC announcement today, but the downside risks remain significant, and we suspect markets could take advantage of a temporary rebound in the pair to enter bearish EUR positions. A re-testing of parity in the near term still seems a very material risk.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-27-02-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, July 27, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, July 27, 2022 Overnight Headlines Asian Stocks Follow Wall Street Ahead Of Likely US Rate Hike Microsoft Posts Slowest Sales Growth Since 2020 On Strong Dollar Google Parent Alphabet's Small Sales Miss Eases Recession Worries Australia Headline Prices Miss Forecast, Easing Rate-Hike Bets Biden Will Speak To Xi On Thursday As US-China Ties Worsen Italy Outlook Revised To Stable From Positive By S&P Spain Slashes 2023 Growth As Inflation Weighs On Economy UK Retailers Report Prices Rising At Sharpest Pace Since 2005 Asian Currencies Weaken As Markets Remain Cautious Ahead Of Fed China's Overnight Repo Rate Falls Below 1% For First Time Since Jan 2021 Oil Steady As Demand Concerns Offset U.S. Crude Stock DrawdownThe Day Ahead Asian equity performance is mixed this morning. In China, the overnight repo rate fell below 1% for the first time since January 2021, a signal that China will keep monetary policy loose to support growth. Reports suggest that US President Biden will speak with Chinese President Xi tomorrow. Annual Australian consumer price inflation rose to 6.1%. That was its highest rate in 21 years but less than expected, causing some forecasters to scale back their expectations for next week’s rate decision. Conservative Party leadership candidate, Rishi Sunak, promised to temporarily scrap VAT on energy bills. Today’s US monetary policy update is the key event of the week for markets. The announcement of a fourth successive interest rate increase is seen as a near certainty. The three previous hikes since March have all seen the Federal Reserve up the ante with an initial increase of 25bp, followed by rises of 50bp in May and 75bp in June. Markets briefly discounted a 100bp hike following a larger than expected rise in June CPI to a new high for the year of 9.1%. However, subsequent comments from some officials that they are more likely to opt for a 75bp hike and signs that longer-term inflation expectations remain under control have led markets to price in the same sized hike as in June. Also of interest will be any signals that the Fed sends about its future policy intentions. Markets continue to price in further rate rises of just over 100bp by early 2023. However, rising concerns about downside risks to growth are reflected in just over 50bp of rate cuts now priced in for later in 2023. This is not one of the meetings where Fed policymakers update their forecasts, but both the press statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will be watched closely for clues on whether these expectations are still justified. Most Fed officials are still indicating that they think the US economy looks strong. However, recent activity data has mostly surprised on the downside, and this will be acknowledged to some extent today. Powell’s key message is likely to remain that getting inflation under control is the number one priority, but he is bound to be quizzed on what would cause the Fed to hold off from further rate rises and on the risks of a ‘hard landing’ for the economy. Prior to the Fed’s policy decision, durable goods orders and the advanced trade report will provide further insight into whether growth is slowing. Elsewhere, it’s a quiet day for data with only Eurozone Money Supply of note.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0000 (1.18B), 1.0100 (1.84B), 1.0125 (650M), 1.0150 (497M) EUR/USD: 1.0200-10 (1.63B), 1.0250-55 (2.13B), 1.0270 (532M), 1.0300 (1.06B) USD/JPY: 136.24-25 (755M). EUR/JPY: 142.40 (1.42B). EUR/CHF: 1.0015 (477M) GBP/USD: 1.2200 (404M). AUD/USD: 0.6945-50 (451M), 0.7040-50 (687M) USD/CAD: 1.2850-55 (900M), 1.2870-80 (604M), 1.2910 (498M), 1.3000 (392M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 EUR sold off across the board due to more bad news regarding energy flows A further cut to supplies from Russia have heightened EZ recession fears Pair looks vulnerable ahead of FOMC decision during US Wednesday session Resistance 1.0250/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 Price testing the 20 Day Bearish VWAP 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2150 Pair moved successively lower from Asia session high Fed +75bp Wednesday in focus GBP traders unsure of +25 or +50 at Aug 4 MPC GBP needs help from the Fed, BoE to make run at mid-June hig Offers sited at 1.21 bids 1.1890 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 134 USD/JPY up with US yields on FOMC 75 bp hike view, Japan buys on dips USD/JPY ratcheting gradually higher from 135.58 EBS low last Friday Japanese importer, other bids on almost every dip, likely will continue USD/JPY moves up matching moves back up in US Treasury 2s, to 3.065% o/n FOMC looking to hike Fed funds 75 bps tonight, 50 bps in September Offers sited 137.30/50 bids at 135.10 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 Edges lower after Aus CPI soft print AUD/USD slipped from 0.6950 to 0.6930 in initial reaction to Aus CPI Weighted mean & headline slightly lower than forecast - trimmed mean slightly higher Impact on AUD/USD likely to be fleeting as the numbers lined up with expectations AUD to take its lead from USD response to FOMC Offers sited .7000/10 AUD/USD support is at Friday's 0.6876 low and break targets 0.6840/45 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish above 22k Risk appetite fragile leading up to FOMC decision Possibility of 100bps hike can't be ruled out Falls out of VWAP uptrend channel Closing below 21k will be a meaningful downside development If below 20.5k, downtrend channel back in play 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-july-27-2022"
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Market Update – Big Tech lifts the mood on Fed Day

USDIndex ticked up to 107.00, as EUR slipped over 1% before recovering following the Russian announcement of further cuts to European gas supplies. FX markets subdued ahead of FED later today. US Stocks declined (NASDAQ -1.87%), Walmart -7.6% (profits warning) Coinbase -21% AMZN -5.23% Shopify -14%. However after hours GOOGL & MSFT up 5% & 4% after Earnings. Unilever, Coke & McDonald’s all warned of higher prices. Asian markets mixed  (Hang Seng -1.2%, Nikkei +0.23%). European FUTS higher. Yields up again +0.56%, but 2/10yr curve remains inverted. Oil holds $95, Gold slipped to lower and BTC holds under $22k.

• USDIndex up, to resistance at 107.00 – holds at 106.80. 
• Equities – USA500 closed -45.79 pts (-1.15%) (3921), US500FUTS at 3957 now. 4th 8%+ rally of the year, previous 3 have resulted in lower lows..bottom in or dead cat bounce? 
• Yields 10-year yield recovered to close at 2.787%, trades higher again at 2.8068% now. 
• Oil – in–focus rallied to $98 the news from from Russia, since declined to $95. 
• Gold  had another weak session $1727 to $1714 now up to $1718. 
• Bitcoin sank again to trade at $21.1K now. 
• FX Markets – EURUSD remains pressured came with 7 pips of 1.0100 and trades at 1.0225, USDJPY tests to 137.00 now. Cable holds over the key 1.2000, capped at 1.2080. 

Overnight – AUD CPI in-line (21-yr high) at 1.8% & German GfK missed -30.6 vs -27.7. 

Today – US Durable Goods, FOMC announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference Earnings from Airbus, BASF, Deutsche Bank, Equinor, BATS, GSK, Lloyds, Rio Tinto, Credit Suisse, Meta, T-Mobile, Boeing.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.30%). Rejected 0.8950 again earlier and tested to .0.8900 a key support. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 38 & falling,  H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.00697.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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from HF Analysis /496995/
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