Palladium Futures ( PA1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 1917.5Pivot:1744.0Support:1656.5Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head back down to retest the pivot at 1744.0, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price may possibly continue heading towards the resistance at 1917.5, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/palladium-futures-pa1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop"
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Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 3.9600Pivot: 3.6885Support: 3.5545Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/copper-futures-hg1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise29"
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EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1.07935Pivot:1.05085Support:1.03315Preferred Case:The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.07935 where the previous swing high is. Alternative Scenario: Price may possibly break the pivot at 1.05085 where the previous high was before heading down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/euro-fx-futures-6e1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation-type-bullish-continuation"
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What to do with old £20 notes – how to exchange old notes for new ones

Old paper £20 and £50 notes are no longer legal tender. We explain what to do with your old banknotes and where to exchange them.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605464/how-to-exchange-old-notes-for-new-ones
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Palladium Futures ( PA1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:1917.5Pivot:1744.0Support:1656.5Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance at 1917.5, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price may possibly head back down to retest the pivot at 1744.0, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/palladium-futures-pa1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise28"
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Key dates for 2023: here are the dates you need to know when it comes to your money in 2023

There is no shortage of important dates to be aware of next year – which are likely to affect your financial health. We run through the key dates in 2023 you need to know about when it comes to your money.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605572/key-dates-money
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Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:3.9600Pivot:3.6885Support:3.5545Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/copper-futures-hg1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise27"
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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 1508.75Pivot: 1469.00Support: 1423.25Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is. Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation27"
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Swiss Christmas delights

Matthew Partridge explores the festive market and the Hotel N’vy in Geneva

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/spending-it/travel-and-holidays/605622/swiss-christmas-delights
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How to invest in the “scary good” tech changing the world

Technology is changing the way we live and work, and this new tool could have a huge impact on the tech industry says Dominic Frisby.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/tech-stocks/605621/how-to-invest-in-the-scary-good-tech-changing-the
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Investors are turning to gold as house prices fall

Data shows demand for gold has increased due to market volatility and falling house prices.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/gold/605620/investors-turning-to-gold-as-house-prices-fall
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Is it cheaper to leave the heating on low all day?

The weather is getting colder and energy bills are rising, but is it really cheaper to leave the heating on low all day or should you only turn it on when you need it?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605562/leave-heating-on-low-all-day
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Demand for new homes down 50% as property market continues to cool

Zoopla’s latest house price index revealed quarterly house price growth has slowed and is likely to turn negative in the first quarter of 2023.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605617/demand-for-new-homes-down-50-percent
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Active investing vs passive investing: which is best?

Active investing and passive investing strategies both have their own merits and carry different risks.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/605616/active-investing-vs-passive-investing-which-is-best
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Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:2569Pivot:2422Support:2470Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a possible shift to bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2569, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may break the support at 2470, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the pivot at 2422, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cocoa-futures-cc1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise22"
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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1508.75Pivot:1469.00Support:1423.25Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is. Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation22"
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EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1.07935Pivot:1.05085Support:1.03315Preferred Case:The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.07935 where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may possibly break the pivot at 1.05085 where the previous high was before heading down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/euro-fx-futures-6e1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation22"
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Bitcoin Trading Flat, but not for Long

As we all know, Christmas and the holiday season make the market especially volatile. So, get ready for different unexpected and illogical market moves.Bitcoin keeps moving in a very narrow range, trying to define the next move. The asset might potentially pull from the resistance at the level of 18350 next to the broken uptrend. So, let’s observe what will happen next.Silver is approaching the resistance at the level of 24.75. The asset might potentially try to either pull back or break the level through. As silver seems to be heading up, it could break this level through. However, it would be wise to check the price movements or the candlestick formations next to this level.The currency pair EUR/USD is forming a pennant after the breakout of the downtrend. It might signify a potential jump. Currently, the asset’s price is testing the level of 1.0600. The currency pair might gain the required support at this level and head up.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-trading-flat-but-not-for-long"
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The Risk of more Downside in USDJPY Remains High on Implications of BOJ Major Policy Shift

FX market continues to digest BOJ’s hawkish surprise yesterday, USDJPY volatility remains elevated. The market reaction to the shocking move of the Bank of Japan delivered a crushing blow to JGB demand resulting in a massive dump of Japanese bonds by investors. In turn, this effect caused the yen to strengthen by more than 4% against the dollar. Today, the speculative demand for the yen declined and USDJPY rebounded from 130.50 to 132.5. Nevertheless, the risk of a new decline remains high for the simple reason that the policy of the Bank of Japan has the groundwork for a radical change, namely the transition to the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. The current rebound may run out of steam at the level of 1.33-1.3350, after which a downside may resume:The Conference Board releases the US consumer confidence data today, also the report on existing home sales is due.The US data calendar for the second half of the week includes Personal Income, Personal Goods and Durable Goods Orders for November (December 23), and the Dallas and Richmond Fed Manufacturing indices for December 27-28. There are currently no scheduled speeches by Fed officials until the release of the Fed minutes on Jan. 4. However, it is unlikely that this data will induce major moves in the low-volatility environment during the holiday period. Current major drivers of sentiment will likely be news from China and about the energy crisis. In China, a growing number of anecdotal reports suggest that the actual death toll could be significantly higher than reported: if supported by more evidence, markets may increasingly doubt the sustainability of China's COVID-19 zero exit path with negative implications for yuan, Asian EMFX and currencies sensitive to the global business cycle. On the energy side, a potential Russian response to EU gas price caps, a possible re-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, and news about the weather (which has been a key driver of gas prices recently) could have implications for the foreign exchange market. From this point of view, European currencies continue to look quite vulnerable. The dollar index is likely to close the year at current levels. In line with its seasonal trend, December was a weak month for the dollar. However, already in January, seasonality can become a positive factor for the dollar as the US currency rallied in January during the four previous years.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-risk-of-more-downside-in-usdjpy-remains-high-on-implications-of-boj-major-policy-shift"
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S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance:4049.00Pivot:3914.00Support:3757.50 Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 3757.50, where the 161.8% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price could head back up to retest the pivot at 3914.00, where the previous swing low is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-e-mini-futures-es1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop21"
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7 cheap investment trusts to buy

Max King takes a look at six cheap investment trusts to buy today after what has been a terrible year for the sector.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/605615/7-cheap-investment-trusts-to-buy
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Daily Market Outlook, December 21, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 21, 2022 The Bank of Japan's surprise announcement regarding a modification in its yield curve control policy, by widening its 10-year target to a plus or minus 0.5% versus its prior plus or minus 0.25%, has left markets grappling with the implications as the global anchor of rates is finally lifted, market participants believe that this is likely the first salvo in a significant regime shift that will unfold in 2023, this belief is contrary to the BoJ's official stance but nevertheless as is often the case once markets sense weakness or a shift in policy stance they will seek to test the position, with some major hedge funds already openly discussing plans to build positions in the Japanese Yen to take advantage of the potential for future announcements, given the sizeable moves already witnessed in favoured carry trade positions in the likes of AUDJPY and NZDJPY which have already seen reversals of just under 5%.  The BoJ move had initially pressured global risk sentiment with equity markets responding negatively to the last bastion of easy monetary policy seemingly giving way, however, a reversal in sentiment developed during yesterday's European and US sessions as dwindling liquidity and positive comments from FEDEX sparked the fuse for a short covering rally, with the benchmark SP500 snapping a four-day losing streak, this reversal in risk sentiment has carried into Asian trade overnight, with most Asian markets posting positive returns on the day, even the Nikkei managed to stabilise losses showing only marginal decline on the day. European markets are set to open with a positive tone this morning, investors will be hoping for no further 'tape bombs' for the remainder of the week as holiday-thinned trading conditions start to set in and investors hope for a Santa rally, the Scrooge's amongst market participants are starting to opine on what was going on behind the scenes at the BoJ that meant they needed to make this historical policy announcement the week before Christmas?Overnight HeadlinesUS Target China Potential Chip Star With New RestrictionsUS Hopes To See China Defeat Current Covid-19 OutbreakUS Senate Advance $1.66 Trillion Government-Funding BillBeijing Braces For Cases Surge, World Watches In ConcernJapan Warns Of Covid Situation, Cuts Factory Output ViewGoldman: BoJ Could Remove Negative Interest Rates NextUK Business Confidence Sees Best Rebound Since April 21Zelenskiy Plans To Address Congress In-Person WednesdayOil Holds Two-Day Gain On Stockpile Decline, Supply RisksTC Energy Delays Full Keystone Pipeline Restart Next WeekFedEx Profit Top As Higher Prices Offset Shipments DeclineNike Beats Estimates As Boosted By Discounts, PromotionsFX Options Expiring 10am New York CutEUR/USD: 1.0400-10 (890M), 1.0500 (272M), 1.0700 (258M)USD/CHF: 0.9300 (1.0BLN). EUR/CHF: 0.9800 (274M)AUD/USD: 0.6655 (207M), 0.6900 (867M)USD/CAD: 1.3485 (250M)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3900Primary support is 3900Primary downside objective is 3700Above 3950 opens a test of 400020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0650Primary resistance is 1.0650Primary downside objective is 1.0450Above 1.0680 opens a test of 1.073520 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2250Primary resistance is 1.2250Primary downside objective 1.20Above 1.2275 opens a test of 1.234020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 132.50Primary resistance is 132.50Primary downside objective is 130Above 133 opens a test of 133.6020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6740Primary resistance is .6740Primary downside objective is .6535Above .6775 opens a test of .689020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16200Intraday 16200 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 17200Failure at 16000 opens a test of 1550020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-21-2022"
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What you need to think about before dipping into your investments

With the costs of living affecting everyone right now, it’s understandable that you may want to dip into your investments. But before you do, here’s what to think about when taking money out of your investment portfolio.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605614/dipping-into-your-investments
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Market Spotlight: BOJ Paving Way For Policy Normalisation?

JPY Well Bid Following BOJThe Japanese Yen is surging higher across the board today on the back of a surprising tweaking of the BOJ’s yield curve target rate. At the December meeting overnight, the BOJ widened the band by 0.25%. JGB yields will now be allowed to trade as higher as 0.5% with many in the market viewing this adjustment as paving the way for upcoming policy normalisation.Ahead of the meeting, not one of the 47 economists polled by Bloomberg anticipated the adjustment, well-explaining the huge moves we’ve seen across the FX space. However, Kuroda was keen to insist that the move didn’t amount to a rate. At the press conference Kuroda explained “This isn’t a rate hike… Although today’s measures will widen the yield band, we believe that the effects of monetary easing, starting with yield curve control, will spread more smoothly through corporate finance and other means as a result.”BOJ Policy Normalisation Coming?Interestingly, this action comes on the back of reports over the weekend suggesting the government is considering revising its 10 year-old inflation accord with the BOJ to allow for more flexibility. Clearly, it seems the tide is starting to turn and as many other central banks pivot or begin to think about pivot on tightening, the prospect of BOJ policy normalisation holds the power to drive further seismic shifts in FX prices.Technical ViewsUSDJPYThe reversal lower in USDJPY has seen the market breaking down through the rising channel and through the last key support at the 139.33 level. Price is now testing the 131.36 level support and, with momentum studies bearish and the retail market heavily long, the focus is on a continuation lower near-term. Below the 131.36 level 126.93 is the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-boj-paving-way-for-policy-normalisation"
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What does the next decade have in store for investors?

Investors face a “sea change” in the investment environment. Dominic Frisby explains what this could mean for your money.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/605612/what-does-the-next-decade-have-in-store-for-investors
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Technical Trade Set Ups For USDJPY, Apple & Amazon

Technical Trade Set Ups For USDJPY, Apple & Amazon

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/technical-trade-set-ups-for-usdjpy-apple-and-amazon"
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Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:2569Pivot:2422Support:2470Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a possible shift to bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2569, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may break the support at 2470, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the pivot at 2422, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cocoa-futures-cc1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise20"
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The IndeX Files 20-12-2022

Equities Plunging Ahead of Christmas As Recession Fears Weigh Global equities benchmarks are trading with a heavy tone today as risk markets remain under pressure across early European trading on Tuesday. The driver appears to be the renewed focus being put on global recession risks on the back of last week’s slew of central bank tightening and the shocking miss in US retail sales. The pre-holiday season is typically a time of high demand across both the retail, hospitality and travel sectors. However, On the back of many US firms warning of weaker outlooks for the Q4 period, November’s dismal US retail reading has been taken as evidence of much weaker performance.These fears are echoed in the UK where a recent spate of industrial action as well as a fresh surge in covid cases and a surprise cold-snap have hampered pre-Christmas trading across many sectors. On the back of the BOE’s warning that the UK is staring down the barrel of a length recession across next year, equities sentiment is understandably strained currently.News of surging covid cases in China is also dampening risk sentiment this week. While traders have recently been looking ahead to a potential Q1 or sooner reopening of the economy, a surging death toll and infection rate is adding to uncertainty this week with traders fearing a U-turn on the recent easing of some covid restrictions by the Chinese government.Technical ViewsDAXThe latest failure at the test of the 14703.98 level has seen the market reversing lower, breaking back under 14170.79. The big test now will be the 13672.31 level. If price can hold here, the focus will remain on a further push higher. However, a break here opens the way for much deeper levels near-term.S&P 500The failure at 4153.50 has seen the market reversing lower and trading back below the 3910 level. With momentum studies bearish, the focus is on a continued push lower with the 3647 level the deeper support to monitor.FTSEThe failure at 7575.8 has seen the market turning lower and breaking back under the 7362.8 level. With momentum studies bearish, the focus is on further downside while the market holds below that level with 7213.9 the next support zone to note.NikkeiThe failure at the 28356.6 level has seen market breaking sharply lower, trading back under the 27422.9 level and down through the rising trend line. Price is currently holding on support at the 26246 level and looks vulnerable to a deeper push towards 25500.5 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-20-12-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, December 20, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 20, 2022 As suggested by wire reports yesterday, the Bank of Japan has confirmed overnight that they will loosen their yield curve control policy, increasing its tolerance band to 0.5%, the confirmation saw the 10-year yield surge to test its ceiling level which added support to the Japanese yen, the move in Japanese government bonds was sufficiently volatile to trigger circuit breaker protection, with the benchmark Nikkei225 currently trading down just under 3%. This move marks the end of the stalwart of easy monetary policy, the BoJ had refrained all year from joining other G7 central banks in tightening monetary conditions, and investors are faced with a new year of broadly tightening financial conditions across all developed markets.  With Asian equity markets retreating in unison with the Nikkei, European bourses are poised for a soggy start to trading, a lack of tier-one data catalysts and declining liquidity in the final full trading week of the year is likely to see a continuation in the softness in risk sentiment, the Euro Stoxx 50 futures printed one-month lows before the open, with the DAX & FTSE futures all pointing to losses of just under 1%. Overnight HeadlinesBoJ Allows Yields To Rise More In Surprise Tweak To PolicyChina Keeps Loan Rates Unchanged, Cut Seen In Next YearChina’s Covid Outbreak Has US Worried Over New VariantsNorth Korea Slams Japan’s Security As Vows CounteractionRBA Considered Pausing Hikes In Dec, Still See More AheadECB’s Nagel: Still ‘Long Way’ From Achieving Inflation GoalUK Lords Warn Labour Shortages Shape Of Things To ComeUK Extend Mortgage-Guarantee Program To Boost HousingYen Jumps To 4-Month Peak Post Hawkish BoJ Policy TweakFX Options Expiring 10am New York CutEUR/USD: 1.0400 (225M), 1.0695-05 (955M)USD/JPY: 132.45-50 (404M), 135.50 (312M)EUR/CHF: 0.9975 (652M)AUD/USD: 0.6505 (622M), 0.6535 (374M)0.6640-50 (396M), 0.6725 (387M), 0.6900 (569M)USD/CAD: 1.3450 (200M),Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3900Primary resistance is 3900Primary downside objective is 3700Above 3950 opens a test of 400020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0550Primary resistance is 1.0650Primary downside objective is 1.0450Above 1.0680 opens a test of 1.073520 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2250Primary resistance is 1.2250Primary downside objective 1.20Above 1.2275 opens a test of 1.234020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 134.50132 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingPrimary resistance is 134.50Primary downside objective is 130Above 135 opens a test of 136.4020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6740Primary resistance is .6740Primary downside objective is .6535Above .6775 opens a test of .689020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16200Intraday 16200 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 17200Failure at 16000 opens a test of 1550020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-20-2022"
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Technical Trade Set Ups For SP500, DXY & AUDUSD

Technical Trade Set Ups For SP500, DXY & AUDUSD

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/technical-trade-set-ups-for-sp500-dxy-and-audusd"
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Is it a good time to invest in property?

Property has always been an attractive sector for investors, but with market turmoil and a potential house price crash, we look whether now is a good time to invest in property.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/605436/invest-in-property
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Where will house prices go in 2023?

Halifax expects house prices to fall 8% next year due to higher interest rates and the rising cost of living.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605607/house-prices-in-2023
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Market Spotlight: BTC Turns Lower Amidst Risk Aversion

BTC Threatening a Fresh Move Lower?Following a corrective grind higher over the last month or so, Bitcoin prices turned sharply lower into the back end of last week as fresh central bank hawkishness weighed on risk sentiment. Both the Fed and the ECB seemingly caught markets a little off guard last week, fuelling recession fears in the outlook for the first half of 2023. The Fed lifted its peak rate projection, signalling that rates would need to be higher for longer while the ECB was also seen warning that rates would need to increase significantly further. With US retail sales data then seen tanking in November, markets have gravitated back towards fears for global economic activity, which has driven risk assets sharply lower in recent days.Early 2023 OutlookLooking ahead to early 2023, the outlook for crypto remains fairly subdued. However, there are some upside risks worth considering. The biggest one of these is the potential reopening of the Chinese economy in early 2023 which, if confirmed, would be a significant upside driver for risk assets including crypto. Furthermore, if there is any sudden acceleration of the drop in US inflation this might help shift the Fed outlook in favour of an earlier end to tightening which would also help lift the outlook for crypto.Technical ViewsBTCFollowing the latest leg lower in BTC, the market has been grinding higher since the November lows, moving with a narrow bull channel. However, the move stalled into a retest of the 18545 area. This is a key resistance level with the bear trend line from August highs sitting just above. Until we see a break of that region, the focus remains on further downside near term with a break of 16660 opening the way for a test of 14910 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-btc-turns-lower-amidst-risk-aversion"
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Market Spotlight: GBP Weaker Following BOE

GBP Falls on Divided BOE HikeIn stark contrast to the price action we’ve seen in EUR following the ECB, GBP has been on the backfoot following the December BOE meeting. The UK central bank pushed ahead with a further .5% hike as expected, taking rates to their highest level in 14 years. However, there was dissent in the ranks with voting split three ways, showing growing support for a slowing of rate hikes.Looking ahead, BOE governor Bailey said that the bank expects inflation to begin falling sharply from spring 2023. Bailey said the BOE was already encouraged by the cooling of inflation seen last month which the bank noted had fallen more than it expected.  These comments alongside the voting split have been seen by the market as a precursor to a forth coming pivot on rates. The BOE warned last time around that it was not looking to continue with aggressive hiking and traders now sense that the BOE will be the next to hit the brakes on tightening, making GBP vulnerable to further downside near term.Technical ViewsGBPUSDPrice has been grinding higher with a bullish channel over recent months. However, we’ve seen bearish divergence creeping in on momentum studies into the latest peak, suggesting bearish reversal risks. The key level to watch near-term is the 1.2195 level. If price slips back below this level, chances of a downside break of the bull channel increase, opening the way for a test of the 1.1474 level next. While above 1.2195, however, 1.2659 is the next level to watch for bulls.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-gbp-weaker-following-boe"
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S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance:4049.00Pivot:3914.00Support:3757.50 Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 3757.50, where the 161.8% Fibonacci line is. Alternative Scenario:Price could head back up to retest the pivot at 3914.00, where the previous swing low is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-e-mini-futures-es1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop"
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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Drop Ahead

Bitcoin has pulled from the resistance at the level of 18500 and dropped. The asset is likely to drop to the level of 15625, gain the required support, and head up. So, let’s observe what is going to happen next.American stock index S&P 500 broke the short-term uptrend and horizontal level of 3935. This asset might either pull back to the broken trend or dive even deeper to hit the broken level of 3935 and drop.Silver has touched the uptrend and formed a hammer at the end of Friday. The asset is likely to hit the level of 24.75 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-drop-ahead-19-12-2022"
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UK economy recession risks on the rise as S&P Global indicates decline in activity

The UK economy is likely to contract again in December as expansion in services sector cannot fully offset the decline in manufacturing.The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index edged up slightly to 49.0 from 48.2 in November, but remained below the 50 level that usually separates a rise from a decline for the fifth month in a row.December data raises the possibility that the UK is in recession, with PMI pointing to a 0.3% GDP contraction in the fourth quarter, following a 0.2% decline seen in the three months to September. The services PMI, which covers most economic activity, rebounded to 50.0 from 48.8 in November, but the manufacturing PMI fell to 44.7 - its lowest level since June 2020 - from 46. 5.S&P saw a "hard and accelerated" fall in manufacturing employment as new export orders fell for the sixth month in a row. Employment in the service sector has stalled.Forward-looking elements of the survey, such as business confidence and order books, remain low by historical standards, both of which are key indicators of increased levels of economic stress.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/uk-economy-recession-risks-on-the-rise-as-s-and-p-global-indicates-decline-in-activity"
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The best offers for switching banks: get up to £200 free cash

Looking to move bank accounts? You can now bag as much as £200 for switching current accounts

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605277/the-best-offers-for-switching-banks
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Share tips of the week – 16 December

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605590/share-tips-of-the-week-16-december
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Share tips of the week – 16 December

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605590/share-tips-of-the-week-16-december
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Share tips of the week – 16 December

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605590/share-tips-of-the-week-16-december
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Market Spotlight: EURAUD Explodes on Hawkish ECB

Hawkish ECB Message Rocks MarketsThe December ECB meeting proved to be far from a muted event as markets were rocked yesterday by the bank’s outlook and guidance. The ECB delivered a widely expected .5% hike, despite hawkish risks, but it was the accompanying projections which were the main focus.Inflation Revised HigherCiting the need to drive inflation lower, the ECB warned that it would need to hike rates “significantly”. The warning came alongside sharp upward revisions to the bank’s inflation forecasts. The ECB now projects inflation to 8.4% in 2022, 6.3% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.No PivotECB chief Lagarde was keen to drive home the bank’s hawkish outlook. In the press conference following the decision Lagarde explained that “One of the key messages, in addition to the hike, is the indication that not only will we raise interest rates further, which we had said before, but that today we judged that interest rates will still have to rise significantly, at a steady place.” Lagarde went on to warn against those with any expectation that the ECB will soon pivot, saying “Anybody who thinks this is a pivot for the ECB is wrong. We’re not pivoting, we’re not wavering, we are showing determination and resilience in continuing a journey.”QT To Step Up Regarding the bank’s asset purchase program, the ECB said that it will begin shrinking its balance sheet by 15 billion EUR per month from March and will announce further details in February.The uptick in ECB hawkishness at a time when many other central banks are pivoting (Fed, RBA, RBC) creates very tradable monetary policy divergence which favours EUR against those respective currencies near-term.Technical ViewsEURAUDThe rally in EUR this week has seen the pair breaking out above the 1.5713 resistance. With momentum studies bullish and with the retail market heavily short, the focus is on a continuation higher towards 1.6173 while 1.5713 holds as support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-euraud-explodes-on-hawkish-ecb"
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Share tips of the week – 16 December

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605590/share-tips-of-the-week-16-december
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FOMO Friday: Nasdaq Plunges on Market Woes

Nasdaq - Naughty or Nice?It’s been a pivotal week for financial markets. For many, the last full week of trading before the Christmas break. The three headline central bank meetings on deck this week certainly delivered the goods, Christmas come early for some, for others, a chance to reflect on missed opportunities. Looking at the action we’ve seen this week and chatting with traders there’s certainly been plenty to focus on. However, the move seemingly catching the most attention ahead of the weekend is the reversal we’ve seen in risk sentiment. The Nasdaq in particular has shed more than 7% on the week, plunging from highs around 12229.22 to sub 11540.72 lows. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Fed - Higher for LongerThe first catalyst to look at is the Fed. The FOMC on Wednesday was an interesting event in that, while the Fed finally delivered a pivot on rates (hiking by a smaller .5%), the accompanying outlook was more hawkish. Citing the need to keep driving inflation lower, the Fed lifted its peak rate projection, forecasting that rates will stay at higher levels for longer with no rate cuts to be considered before 2024 at the earliest. This guidance saw risk assets tumbling with tech stocks bearing the brunt of the moves.ECB FireworksFollowing the Fed we then saw the ECB lighting the markets up (in the wrong way) on Thursday. The bank struck a heavily cautious tone warning of the growing downside risks to the domestic and global economy next year. Additionally, a set of upwardly revised inflation forecasts means that traders are eyeing further hikes from the bank across next year, again weighing heavily on sentiment in tech stocks.Recession FearsFinally, recession fears swung back into sharp focus with November US retail sales falling unexpectedly into negative territory. Given that the pre-holiday season is typically a time of high demand, the data poses worrying questions for Q4 performance as a whole and added heavily to bearish sentiment in stocks, sending tech names plunging across the board, reflected in the Nasdaq breaking through support this week.Technical ViewsNasdaqThe sell off in the Nasdaq this week saw the market reversing from the latest test of the resistance zone around 12220.22 with the bull channel top adding confluence. Price has since broken back below the 11540.72 level support and is now fast approaching a test of the 11034.18 level support and bull channel lows. Bulls need to defend this area to keep the broader bullish bias intact.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-nasdaq-plunges-on-market-woes"
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EU yield outlook improves on hawkish ECB, the odds of Fed Pivot grow on dovish retail sales surprise

The key question ahead of today’s ECB policy meeting was whether the bank would opt for a large rate hike with a dovish statement or deliver modest tightening policies while retaining a hawkish stance. The meeting indicated that the ECB leaned in favor of the second option. In its statement, the ECB did not skimp on hawkish language: “interest rates need to be raised further at a steady pace to a sufficiently restrictive level to ensure inflation moves towards a medium-term target of 2%”, and also “keeping interest rates above the neutral level will reduce inflation over time by dampening demand, and also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.”In terms of reducing the ECB's bond holdings, redemption bond reinvestment under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) will decline to an average of 15 billion euros per month until the end of the second quarter of 2023, and its subsequent pace will be determined as the process progresses.The ECB has also released updated staff economic projections. The regulator expects inflation to fall to 3.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. The figure for 2024 has been significantly revised upwards. At the same time, the ECB expects only a short and shallow recession, forecasting a eurozone growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. This is slightly less optimistic than the previous forecast, but there is no noticeable anxiety about recession.EURUSD moved up amid hawkish statements from the European regulator, the dollar also further weakened on a negative surprise in US retail sales data (-0.6% MoM, -0.1% forecast):Together with a faster slowdown in US inflation in November, a weak retail sales report fueled markets' fears of an impending downturn in the US economy, which spooked investors in risk assets. Major US stock indexes fell by about 1.5%.Based on the outcomes of the meetings of the Fed and the ECB, it seems that the ECB is becoming more decisive in the fight against inflation, while the risks of a pause from the Fed started to increase, especially against the backdrop of weak incoming data in the key US consumer sector. There is still little the ECB can do to reduce actual inflation, but it can help re-anchor inflation expectations. With today's announcement, it's clear that the ECB wants to use interest rates fully as its primary inflation-fighting tool first, and that balance sheet shrinkage remains on the back burner. With growth prospects still relatively optimistic, there is a growing risk that the ECB will push the eurozone economy further into recession with each new interest rate hike. Nevertheless, in the short term, the Euro becomes a more attractive choice on expectations of a narrowing yield differential, so the EURUSD pair is likely to continue to rise for some time.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eu-yield-outlook-improves-on-hawkish-ecb-the-odds-of-fed-pivot-grow-on-dovish-retail-sales-surprise"
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CPI inflation vs RPI inflation: what’s the difference?

We’ve been hearing a lot about CPI inflation recently, but what is this metric and why is it different to RPI inflation?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/inflation/605602/cpi-inflation-vs-rpi-inflation
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S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:4173.25Pivot:3913.25Support:3751.75Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head up towards the resistance at 4173.25, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price could head back down to retest the pivot at 3913.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-e-mini-futures-es1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise15"
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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1508.75Pivot:1469.00Support:1423.25Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation15"
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Daily Market Outlook, December 15, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 15, 2022 Asian equities are trading on the backfoot following last night’s more hawkish read from the US Fed policy decision, while the pace of tightening was reduced, with interest rates increasing by 50bp (to a Fed funds rate of 4.25-4.50%) compared with the 75bp hikes at the prior four meetings, the Fed’s latest guidance suggested a terminal rate higher than the committee was previously targeting. The median estimate of Fed policymakers’ forecasts, the so-called ‘dot plot’ suggests a terminal target of 5.00-5.25% in 2023. In the press conference, Fed Chair Powell stated the central bank still had a “ways to go” to defeat inflation. Following the Fed, markets will now focus on policy decisions from central banks across Europe, the Bank of England is expected to announce its latest policy decision at lunchtime in the UK. The guidance given at the last meeting suggested a further limited rise in interest rates with markets pricing a 50bp increase. Markets will parse the decision for any further signs of a split vote as it appears two or possibly three members may prefer a smaller move, given that two Monetary Policy Committee members voted against the previous decision to hike by 75bp, markets will also be keen to understand whether any members are leaning towards a larger rate increase. Today's meetings will not include BoE updates to its forecasts and there won't be a press conference. The guidance on further rate moves will likely be claimed to be ‘data dependent. The ECB hiked rates by 75bps at its last two meetings, and recent comments from ECB policymakers infer that they will now slow their pace, with markets pricing a 50bp rate increase today. Some ECB officials have suggested another 75bp rise may be necessary, but it seems as though the hawks may settle for an announcement that Quantitative Tightening will start next year. ECB President Lagarde recently confirmed that details on the principles for balance sheet reduction will be announced today, but it is unclear whether a specific start date will be given or whether some other guidance will be provided. The forward guidance on rates may again be that this is now ‘data dependent’ but that seems unlikely to weigh on expectations for further rate increases. Markets-wise, the action continues to replicate a classic bear market pattern, with gaps higher only to bleed lower, with investors seeking the illusive Fed pivot to end of restrictive monetary policy, once the BoE and ECB are done today it is more than likely that the massive December options expiration due tomorrow will contain the action, with the benchmark S&P500 pinned to the 4000 level as the price where the largest amount of options interest is set to expire, investors will look to next week with no further meaningful macro data, will Santa finally be on his sleigh ready to deliver the year-end boost to stocks?Overnight HeadlinesChina Economic Activity Slumps With More Disruption To ComePBoC Injects Net 150Bln Yuan Via MLF; Rate Kept UnchangedJapan’s Trade Balance Deficit Narrows Less Than ExpectedNZ Economy Grows Strongly In Q3, But Recession Clouds AheadPowell Sees Rates Higher For Longer, But Market Doesn’t Buy ItHouse Passes One-Week Spending Bill To Avert Dec. 17 ShutdownECB To Slow Rate Hikes And Lay Out Plans To Drain CashBank Of England Readies Another Rate Hike Even As Recession HitsOil Declines After Section Of Major Keystone Pipeline RestartsStocks Extend Drop In Asia On Fed; US Dollar AdvancesElon Musk Sold More Than $3.5 Billion Worth Of Tesla SharesWarner Bros. Discovery Lifts Writedown Costs To $5.3 BillionFord, China’s CATL Mull Workaround For New US Battery PlantSEC Proposes Rules That Would Squeeze Stock-Market Middlemen FX Options Expiring 10am New York CutEUR/USD: 1.0415-30 (1.06BLN), 1.0450 (1.93BLN)1.0500 (237M), 1.04530 (201M), 1.0550 (426M)1.0570-80 (419M), 1.0600 (337M), 1.0700 (1.15BLN)EUR/JPY: 146.00 (612M)USD/CHF: 0.9395-00 (628M)GBP/USD: 1.2350 (435M), 1.2495-00 (549M)AUD/USD: 0.6600 (302M), 0.6755-70 (479M)NZD/USD: 0.6300 (200M), 0.6400 (200M)USD/CAD 1.3500 (439M), 1.3850 (249M)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 39504120 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 3950Primary upside objective is 4150Failure at 3950 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.051.0620 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 1.0590Primary upside objective is 1.07Failure at 1.05 opens a test of 1.0420 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2250Primary support is 1.2250Primary upside objective 1.24Failure at 1.2080 opens a test of 1.203020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 137.70Primary resistance is 137.70Primary downside objective is 132Acceptance above 138 opens a test of 139.3020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6700Primary support is .6700Primary upside objective is .6900Failure at .6700 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1750018200 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingIntraday 17500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18500Failure at 17400 opens a test of 1720020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullis

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-15-2022"
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Market Spotlight: BOE & ECB In Focus Today - Where Do Hawkish Risks Lie?

BOE & ECB On Deck TodayFollowing on from the Fed yesterday, the BOE and ECB December meetings will take centre stage today. Both central banks are expected to hike by a further .5% while signalling the need for continued hikes into next year. However, if we’re looking at where the risks lie in terms of opportunities, the ECB looks to have more hawkish risks going into today’s meeting.Hawkish Risks Seen More for ECB Than BOE With the BOE having stridently pushed back against the idea of further aggressive tightening on the back of the last .75% hike, and with inflation having cooled last month, a smaller .5% hike looks fairly certain. However, the ECB being much earlier on in its tightening journey and with Lagarde and co sounding more concerned about inflation, there are outside risks of a surprise today which could see the bank hiking by a larger .75%. While this would no doubt drive EURGBP higher, short term at least, the greater impact is likely to be seen in EURUSD with the further eroding of monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB set to favour EUR near-term.Technical ViewsEURUSDThe rally off the YTD lows has seen the market continuing to break higher recently. The last notable technical breakthrough was the move through the 1.0364 level. Momentum studies have waned a bit recently, suggesting room for a correction. However, while price stays above the 1.0364 level the focus remains on a continued push higher and an eventual break of the 1.0785 level towards the 1.1126 level above.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-boe-and-ecb-in-focus-today-where-do-ha"
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The Crude Chronicles - Episode 167

Oil Traders Cut Longs AgainThe latest CFTC COT institutional positioning report shows that crude traders cut their net long positions once again last week. Total upside exposure now sits at 232k contracts, down from 240k contracts prior. This marks the third consecutive weekly reduction in upside bets, taking the total long position down from recent highs of around 280k contracts. While crude prices are down on the month, however, this week has seen crude futures making a decent recovery bouncing off the roughly $70 lows back up to around $77.Demand Still an IssueCrude sentiment continues to oscillate around global recessionary fears, the USD outlook and the China reopening story. With fears of a global slowdown growing, the demand outlook for oil has dropped considerably recently. This has been well discussed by groups such as OPEC and the IEA which have both lowered their 2023 demand outlook for oil amidst the cost-of-living crisis fuelled by higher inflation and higher interest rates.USD & FedThe USD outlook and Fed tightening expectations have been a big part of this. With the Fed now projecting rates to stay at higher levels for longer, and the peak rate now set to exceed previous forecasts, growth forecasts will likely be further reduced. This will no doubt weigh on the demand outlook further, deflating crude sentiment yet again.China Reopening OptimismHowever, there are some bright spots in the outlook. Among these, potential reopening of the Chinese economy is the biggest factor to watch. With the Chinese government having scaled back a slew of covid restrictions recently, speculation is growing that the government will soon abandon its zero-covid policy, reopening the economy in full. Should we see further evidence supporting this view, near-term, crude prices are likely to lift on a material improvement to the crude demand outlook.Technical ViewsCrude OilThe rally in crude futures off the lows has seen the market trading back up to retest the underside of broken support around the 76.49 level. While price holds back above here, the focus is on further upside. However, there is plenty of technical confluence offering resistance overhead with the retest of the broken bull trend line and the bear channel top coming in around the 81.40 level. Bulls will need to see a break back above this level to shift the medium-term bear view which focuses on a test of the 66.97 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crude-chronicles-episode-167"
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Bitcoin is Dead but it might Recover

Bitcoin has pulled from the level of 17000, targeting the level of 18000. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is approaching the level of 18500. The asset is likely to pull from this level and drop next to the uptrend. It is possible that Bitcoin will undergo correction and head up.Silver is heading up. Hence, the asset might potentially undergo a small correction and pull from the uptrend.Oil has approached the level of 83.00. The asset might pull from this level and drop. However, oil might also break the level and downtrend and jump. So, let’s observe what is going to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-is-dead-but-it-might-recover"
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Millions of homeowners face £250 jump in monthly mortgage payments next year

The Bank of England has warned that homeowners and buy-to-let investors will need to pay thousands of pounds in extra mortgage payments next year. We explain what help is available if you’re worried about rising mortgage costs.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/mortgages/605598/rising-mortgage-costs
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UK house prices rose 12.6% in October says the ONS

House prices have continued to rise according to data from the ONS, but all is not what it seems with the data.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605520/uk-house-price-growth
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Understanding winter fuel payments

As winter sets in and temperatures plunge, many of us are worried about our rising energy bills. But the government’s winter fuel payment could help ease the pain for millions of pensioners.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605595/winter-fuel-payments
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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1508.75Pivot:1469.00Support:1423.25Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
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5 things you didn’t realise were affecting your credit score

Make sure you’re keeping your credit score in top shape by avoiding these five mistakes.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605594/things-affecting-your-credit-score
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UK inflation falls to 10.7% but cost of living pressures remain

CPI is down to 10.7% from last month’s 41-year-high of 11.1%

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/inflation/605593/uk-inflation-falls
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Market Spotlight: SHCOMP Caught Between Covid & Fed

Chinese Stocks Lower Ahead of FedChinese stocks are sitting off recent highs today. Despite the Chinese government having further relaxed various covid restrictions over the last few weeks, traders are watching developments carefully amidst news of a surging covid outbreak in Beijing. While there has been much speculation around the potential scrapping of the government’s zero-covid policy, news of infections is a worrying headwind to optimism.As with most indices recently, Chinese stocks have been buoyed by a scaling back of hawkish Fed expectations amidst lower US inflation data. With US CPI seen falling once again last month, traders now await the latest outlook from the Fed today at the conclusion of its two-day December FOMC meeting. Given the concerns around the covid situation in China, however, it will likely take a sharp move lower in USD to propel SHCOMP to further gains here. Yesterday’s reversal in initial equities gains reflects the cautious outlook among traders ahead of the event, paving the way for plenty of volatility today should the Fed surprise one way or the other.Technical ViewsSHCOMPThe rally off the YTD lows has seen the marker breaking out above the bear channel from YTD highs. Price has been moving higher within a narrow bullish channel and is now testing the 3185.9209 area resistance. This is a key area for the market and a break above here will turn focus to a test of the 3347.6880 level next and the bull channel top. To the downside, should we slip lower here, 3043.1853 is the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-shcomp-caught-between-covid-and-fed"
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Daily Market Outlook, December 14, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 14, 2022 Stocks Reverse CPI SurgeWall Street surged higher on softer-than-expected CPI as investor risk sentiment seemed fuelled by the prospect of peak inflation being in the rear view mirror, however, as markets digested the data sentiment shifted significantly from the prospect of peak inflation to growth concerns, the intraday reversal was also deemed to be driven by profit-taking ahead of today's FOMC meeting and tomorrow's BoE & ECB meeting the final meaningful macro events of 2022. Asian equity markets have held onto small gains overnight as investors wait for Fed Chair Powell's press conference this evening.The remaining central bank meetings this week are all likely to raise rates, however, markets are positioned for a reduction in the increment of rate rises, with markets currently pricing a 50bps move by the FOMC this evening. The focus for investors is going to be firmly centred on the Fed Chair Jay Powell's press conference, his comments will be parsed for any signs of a dovish tilt to his messaging, specifically his views on the Fed funds terminal rate, markets appear to be aligning around a 2023 terminal rate between 5.25% and 4.50%, markets will likely cheer any lean towards the lower end of the spectrum, however, markets are currently pricing a 4.82% terminal rate down from 4.98% ahead of the CPI release, if Powell pushes back against this reduction in expectations, expect further selling in equities as investors will likely seek solace in the safety of government debt over riskier assets. Markets-wise, huge options expiration in US markets on Friday are likely to contain any major moves on Wall Street, with $3.9 trillion of options expiring on Friday, the options market is priced for a 4000-4100 range on the benchmark SP500, ahead of the options expiration the action is likely to remain broadly within this range, post-expiration offers the potential for a range expansion, with investors still pinning their hopes on a Santa rally into year-end!Overnight HeadlinesChina’s Economy Likely Worsened Before Abrupt Covid Policy ShiftChina Gives Up Counting All Covid Cases After Ending Mass TestsChina’s Zero-Covid Retreat Sparks Wealth Mgmt Product Sell-OffMorgan Stanley Lifts China GDP Forecast On Reopening, EasingJapan’s Tankan Highlights Manufacturing, Service Firms’ DivideNew Zealand Forecasts 2023 Recession As Rates RiseCongressional Negotiators Reach Framework For Deal On Funding GovFed Seen Slowing Rate Hikes, Likely Ending Them Below 5%Dollar Weak After Soft US Inflation Data, Focus Switches To FedCrypto’s Binance Seeks to Reassure Over Reserves, Says Debt FreeOil Slips As US Crude Stock Build Stirs Doubts On DemandEU Pushes Gas Cap Decision To Next Week As Haggling ContinuesEU Agrees To Tap Carbon Market For €20 Billion In Energy PivotAsia Stocks, US Futures Edge Higher Before FedBipartisan Senate Bill Would Bar Huawei From US Finance SystemPfizer Awarded $1.96B Contract From US Gov For Paxlovid FX Options Expiring 10am New York CutEUR/USD: 1.0375-80 (1.74BLN), 1.0450 (564M), 1.0500 (526M)1.0545-55 (505M), 1.0650 (444M), 1.0700 (929M), 1.0800 (406M)USD/JPY: 136.00 (355M). USD/CHF: 0.9415 (210M)GBP/USD: 1.2120 (210M). EUR/GBP: 0.8700 (239M)AUD/USD: 0.6450 (960M), 0.6675 (216M), 0.6750 (327M)NZD/USD: 0.6400 (1.02BLN), 0.6425 (1.15BLN)USD/CAD: 1.3560 (1.1BLN)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 39004120 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 3980Primary upside objective is 4150Failure at 3950 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.051.0620 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 1.0590Primary upside objective is 1.07Failure at 1.05 opens a test of 1.0420 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.22Primary support is 1.22Primary upside objective 1.24Failure at 1.2080 opens a test of 1.203020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 137.70Primary resistance is 137.70Primary downside objective is 132Acceptance above 138 opens a test of 139.3020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6790Primary support is .6790Primary upside objective is .6900Failure at .6700 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1750018000 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingIntraday 17500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18200Failure at 17400 opens a test of 1720020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-14-2022"
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US & UK Inflation Falls - GBPUSD Traders Await the Fed

US Inflation Cools FurtherThe peak inflation narrative has been given a further boost this week with the latest US and UK inflation data showing a cooling of consumer prices in both economies. In the US, annualised inflation was seen falling back to 7.1% last month, marking its lowest level since December 2021. This marks a further decline from the prior month’s 7.7% reading and was also below the 7.3% reading the market was looking for. Looking at the monthly breakdown, headline prices rose just 0.1%, down from the prior month’s 0.4% and below the 0.3% rise expected. Core prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2%, again, lower than both the prior and expected 0.3%.Attention Turns to FedWith US inflation now down a full 2% from the peak in the summer, the market turns its attention to the Fed later today. The reversal of initial gains in equities indices reflects a reluctance to show too much exuberance ahead of the main event later. While the downturn in inflation is clearly encouraging, the Fed still has a way to go and will want to avoid the market taking too dovish a view on next year, particularly with inflation still more than 3x above target.UK Inflation Falls in NovemberIn the UK, consumers were greeted by slightly better news today also. November CPI was seen falling back to 10.7% last month, down from the prior month’s 41-year highs at 11.1%. This was also below the 10.9% reading the market was looking for and saw core CPI falling to 6.3% from 6.5%. Hawkish risks ahead of the BOE tomorrow have likely now been diluted with the smaller .5% hike the most likely option. However, the BOE is widely expected to retain a hawkish outlook on rates as well as a gloomy view on the economy, particularly on the back of further weak GDP data earlier this week and news of an uptick in unemployment.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe rally in GBPUSD this week has seen the market breaking out above the 1.2195 level, with the bull channel developing further. While price holds above this support level and with the retail market still heavily short, the focus is on a further push higher with 1.2659 the next key level to watch. To the downside, any drop back below the level will turn focus to the bull channel lows and the 1.1474 level beneath it.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us-and-uk-inflation-falls-gbpusd-traders-await-the-fed"
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A recession is coming, here is how to prepare your finances

The Bank of England has warned we’re probably already in a recession, and it’s due to be one of the longest in recent memory. Here’s what to expect, and how to prepare your finances.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605257/how-to-prepare-your-finances-for-recession
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Technical Trade Levels Ahead of CPI & FOMC Releases

Technical Trade Levels Ahead of CPI & FOMC Releases

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/technical-trade-levels-ahead-of-cpi-and-fomc-releases"
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Unemployment rises as over 50s head back to work

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed a 0.1% increase in unemployment, but a decreased rate of inactivity.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/605589/unemployment-rises
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Market Spotlight: DXY & US CPI Today

US CPI In FocusThe headline market event today is the US CPI release for November. The data will be the final key input ahead of the December FOMC tomorrow and on the back of the fall in October inflation, the data today will likely be pivotal for the early 2023 US rates outlook.Market Impact - Bearish USDThe market is looking for monthly CPI to rise 0.3% on the headline figure and core while annual inflation is set to fall to 7.3% from 7.7% prior. While a .5% hike is all but certain this time around, If data is confirmed that consensus levels or below, the market will likely move in favour of expecting a less hawkish outlook from the Fed, paving the way for a slower pace of tightening over Q1 2023.  In this scenario, risk assets should be well supported with stocks and commodities set to gain quickly, as well as high-beta FX, as USD and bond yields come off.Bullish USD  However, should data come in above forecasts, this will keep more uncertainty in the outlook, likely causing the Fed to stick to a more hawkish outlook for early 2023. In this scenario, USD is likely to be well bid fuelling a sharp move lower in risk assets along with an uptick in bond yields.Technical ViewsDXYThe reversal from 114.58 highs has seen the Dollar Index has seen the market breaking down below the 109.18 level support and below the bear channel lows. Price is now sitting on support at the 104.95 level. Momentum studies have flattened for now, suggesting room for a move higher while support holds. However, below here, focus shifts to 101.22 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-dxy-and-us-cpi-today"
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Market Spotlight: UK Wages & Unemployment Rise Ahead of BOE

Further Poor UK DataOn the back of yesterday UK GDP print which showed that economic activity contracted 0.3% in the three months through October, UK traders suffered yet further dad news today. UK wages were seen rising 6.1% over the same period, up from 6% prior while unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.6% prior. With prices rising and the workforce weakening, the near-term economic outlook for the UK has shifted lower again. Focus now turns to the BOE meeting on Thursday.Recession Risks & BOE The BOE outlined UK recession risks last time around, warning that the UK was likely at the start of a 2-year recession. This week’s data looks to have confirmed this view and traders are now expecting the BOE to double down on the gloomy warnings offered last time around. Given the recession risks facing the UK the market is looking for a further .5% hike. However, on the back of the recent record inflation print and with wages seen rising again upside risks are visible into the meeting.Technical Views6B (GBP Futures)Looking at the market, the breakout above the bearish trend line has seen price trading up to test the summer highs around 1.2270. Price is currently stalled here. However, with momentum studies firmly bullish, focus is n a continued push higher and a test of the 1.2683 level next. Should we reverse from here however, 1.1730 is the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-uk-wages-and-unemployment-rise-ahead-of-boe"
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The IndeX Files 13-12-2022

All Eyes on US CPI Ahead of Tomorrow's FOMCGlobal equities benchmarks have seen relatively muted action so far this week as traders await today’s headline US CPI event ahead of the November FOMC tomorrow. October’s CPI reading was a major market event fuelling a wave of USD sales which helped underpin equities sentiment and lift asset prices across the board. Equities bulls will therefore be hoping for a similar reaction today.Looking at consensus forecast, the market is looking for headline annual CPI at 7.3%, down from October’s 7.7%. This reading or lower should see stocks supported into tomorrow’s FOMC event with the Fed likely afforded more room to signal a slower pace of tightening with a view towards pausing rate hike if inflation continues to calm. However, on the back of the upside surprise we saw in US labour data, there are still risks of an upside surprise today. If seen, stronger US inflation will bolster the likelihood of the Fed retaining a more hawkish outlook tomorrow, dragging stocks lower near-term.Looking beyond Wednesday, UK and European traders will then be turning to the ECB and BOE meetings on Thursday. Both central banks are expected to hike further by at least .5% with hawkish risks for both. As such, European and UK indices hold plenty of bilateral risk into these events. On the back of yesterday’s weak UK GDP reading, today’s data saw wages and unemployment both ticking higher into October, compounding recessionary fears in the UK ahead of the meeting.Technical ViewsDAXThe index continues to hold in the recent range set between 14703.98 and 14170.79 following the upside break seen in early November. Momentum studies have softened here, highlighting risks of a downside break. However, focus remains on further upside while the range support holds.S&P 500Following the rejection at the latest test of the bear channel top, price has subsequently found support into a test of the 3910 level, turning price higher again. Momentum studies are turning higher here keeping the focus on further upside and a test of the 4153.50 level while 3910 holds.FTSEThe market continues to correct lower from the 7575.8 level which marks the peak of the latest FTSE rally for now. Price is trading back towards the 7362.6 level, in line with falling momentum studies. Bulls will need to see this level hold to retain upside focus near-term.NIKKEIThe rejection at the 28356.6 level saw the market correcting as low as a test of the 27422.9 level, which has since held as support. Momentum studies are turning higher and while this level holds, the focus is on an eventual break of 28356.6 and a continuation higher.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-13-12-2022"
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UK house prices see their biggest December drop in four years

According to Rightmove’s house price index average asking prices dipped 2.1% in December.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605584/uk-house-prices-falling
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Market Spotlight: EURJPY ECB Set Up

EURJPY Pattern PlayEURJPY price action is looking very interesting here ahead of the ECB meeting this week. The pair has been trading higher this year, underpinned by the rising trend line from the March lows. Similarly to what we saw over June – September, price has recently been correcting lower within a bear channel. Given the broader uptrend, the current move can be viewed as a bull flag, highlighting risks of an eventual break higher as we saw from the last formation.Two-Way Risk into ECBGiven the event risk on deck with the ECB this week, the pattern looks even more interesting. The ECB is tipped to hike rates by a further .5%. However, on the back of recent eurozone data and hawkish commentary from several ECB members, there are clear hawkish risks going into the meeting. Should the ECB press ahead with a larger hike or signal more aggressive action to come, EUR looks likely to make fresh gains against JPY given the BOJ’s continued commitment to maintaining an easing presence in the market. However, should there be any dovish surprise at the meeting, EURJPY runs the risk of breaking below the rising trend line and correcting deeper still.Technical ViewsEURJPYFollowing the bounce off the rising trend line and the 140.82 level, price is now testing the 144 level and corrective bear channel top. If we see a break higher here focus will turn back to the 147.75 level next and a potential break to new highs. To the downside, any move below the 140.82 level will open the way for a test of the 137.74 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-eurjpy-ecb-set-up"
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Market Spotlight: UK GDP Underscores Recession Risks Ahead of BOE

GDP Rises on Month, Dips on QuarterThe latest UK GDP data this morning paints a bleak picture ahead of the BOE meeting on Thursday. At first glance, the 0.5% rise in October looks promising, marking an uptick from the prior month’s -0.6% reading and a beat on the 0.3% the market was looking for. However, the 3 months output reading, from August through October, was seen contracting 0.3%, suggesting the UK is still heading into recession.UK Recession RisksThe BOE governor himself warned last time around that the UK is likely at the start of a two-year recession. This week, traders are wary of hawkish risks for the BOE given that inflation remained at four decade highs last month and is showing little sign of cooling. Additionally, while a hike of between .5% and .75% is expected, the BOE is also expected to double down on the gloomy warnings issued last time around meaning that Thursday will likely be particularly volatile for GBP and UK assets.BOE Division GrowingHowever, given the particular severity of the risks facing the UK economy, which many cite as the worst since the 1970s, risks of greater division among BOE members is rising. Indeed, with many concerned about stagflation in the UK, a potential four-way split (first time ever) is one outcome being touted ahead of the meeting. The split would essentially consist of votes in favour of a hike, a larger hike, a smaller hike and no change. Such an outcome would no doubt fuel an uptick in investor uncertainty, hitting UK asset prices. For now, GBP continues to rally ahead of the event with investors seemingly more focused on upside risks to rates.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe pair continues to grind higher here within the bullish channel which has framed the recovery off the lows. Price is currently testing the 1.2195 level resistance. If price can hold above here, focus will turn to a test of the 1.2695 level next. Starting to see some bearish divergence creeping in, highlighting reversal risks. Any sudden drop below 1.2195 will turn focus to a test of the channel lows and the 1.1474 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-uk-gdp-underscores-recession-risks-ahead-of-boe"
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Daily Market Outlook, December 12, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 12, 2022 Investors Pare Risk Ahead of This Week's Inflation Data & Central Bank DecisionsAsian equity markets have started the week on the back foot, as investors pare risk positions ahead of tomorrow's US headline inflation data coupled with major central bank announcements due Wednesday and Thursday. Friday's firmer PPI data underpinned US Yields with the 10yr trading back above the 3.50% level, the move in US Yields also helped support the greenback, however, foreign exchange markets are predominantly range-bound ahead of the headline event risk this week. This morning's UK GDP data showed some signs of improvement, the economy rebounded by 0.5% in October, pipping market expectations of 0.4% for the month, the increase represents an uptick on September's 0.6% decline, driven by the additional bank holiday following the Queen's funeral. The improvement in UK GDP comes ahead of tomorrow's employment report, followed by domestic CPI data Wednesday, then Thursday sees the final Bank of England meeting for the year, market watchers anticipate another modest increase in headline inflation to print 10.9%, this should see the BoE raise rates again on Thursday by another 50bps to 3.5%. Looking to tomorrow, US inflation data will be scrutinised as to the effectiveness of the Fed's most aggressive hiking cycle since the 1980's, this data comes a day ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. In the Eurozone, the ECB will also update its policy on Thursday, with markets poised for the European central bank to slow the pace of rate hikes from 75bps to 50bps raise this week.Markets-wise, expect somewhat of a holding pattern to develop today as investors await the deluge of inflation and central bank data before repositioning into year-end, with many investors hoping that once this week's data is digested, the eagerly anticipated year-end rally in equity markets may have a chance to get underway.Overnight HeadlinesCongress Faces Deadline For Keeping Government FundedBoE Divisions on Rates Set To Deepen With UK Stagflation OutlookUK Power Surges To Record As Sub-Zero Chill Sends Demand SurgingUK Home Asking Prices Are Falling At Sharpest Pace In Four YearsUK Lenders See 23% Slide In Mortgages For Home-Buyers In 2023China’s Top Medical Adviser Says Omicron’s Risks Same As FluChina's Healthcare System Put To The Test As Covid Curbs FadeJapan PPI Inflation Sticks To Near 41-Year High In NovemberBoJ’s Takata Says Not Time To End Yield Curve ControlKishida Aide Says Amamiya, Nakaso Among Candidates For BoJ ChiefInvestors Withdraw Record Levels Of Coins From Crypto ExchangesUneasy Traders Ramp Up Bets On Europe Bond SelloffOil Rebounds As Key Pipeline Remains Shut And China Eases CurbsTurkey’s Oil Tanker Backlog Is Starting To ClearAsian Shares Fall, Dollar Firms Ahead Of Central Bank Rate HikesWorld’s Top Money Managers See Global Stocks Recovering In 2023FX Options Expiring 10am New York CutEUR/USD: 1.0380-90 (1.06BLN), 1.0420-25 (637M)1.0500-10 (1.6BLN), 1.0550 (381M), 1.0565 (270M)1.0600-10 (598M)USD/JPY: 135.00 (610M), 136.00-05 (730M), 138.00 (911M)USD/CHF: 0.9500 (208M)GBP/USD: 1.2070 (298M), 1.2150 (446M). EUR/GBP: 0.8750 (405M)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3900Primary support is 3900Primary upside objective is 4120Failure at 3880 opens a test of 385020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.05Primary support is 1.05Primary upside objective is 1.0620Failure at 1.0440 opens a test of 1.035020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.22Primary support is 1.22Primary upside objective 1.24Failure at 1.2080 opens a test of 1.203020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 137.70Primary resistance is 137.70Primary downside objective is 132Acceptance above 138 opens a test of 139.3020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6640Primary support is .6640Primary upside objective is .6900Failure at .6600 opens a test of .655020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16500Intraday 16500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18000Failure at 16400 opens a test of 1600020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-12-2022"
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Precious Metals Monday 12-12-2022

Metals Markets Await US CPI & FedFollowing the rallies we’ve seen over the last month or so, both gold and metal look hungry to break out here. Both metals have seen choppier action in recent weeks though have still been grinding higher amidst a broadly lower US Dollar.The key decider this week will of course be the FOMC on Wednesday. Just ahead of that event, however, we have the latest US CPI which is highly likely to decide which way the Fed’s goes. The market is currently looking for a further decline on headline CPI to 7.3% from 7.7%, which would be good news for metals if seen.However, on the back of Friday’s stronger-than-forecast US PPI reading, markets look primed for the Fed to deliver a hawkish outlook, citing the need to keep going with rates hikes while upside inflation risks remain. This is likely to weigh on metals, particularly if accompanied by hawkish action from the ECB and BOE on Thursday.However, if the Fed is seen to be less concerned about upside inflation risks now, perhaps instead focusing on the fact that trajectory is now lower and things are headed the right way, this might reassure markets somewhat allowing metals to take off as USD unwinds.Technical ViewsGoldPrice action in gold is looking very interesting here. The rally off the lows has been framed by a rising wedge pattern, typically a bullish reversal formation, suggesting risks of a downside break. This is further endorsed by the bearish divergence we’re seeing in momentum studies. Price is currently struggling at the 1791.63 support and if we pierce below the structure here, 1722.37 will be the next support to note. To the topside, any break higher will turn focus to the 1871.04 level next.SilverThe move higher in silver is a little more advanced than the upside we’ve seen in gold with the market recently breaking above the 22.3205 level and holding a retest of the level from above. While this level holds, the focus remains on further upside. Worth noting we are seeing some bearish divergence creeping in on momentum studies, suggesting bearish reversal risks. With this in mind, prudent to monitor price action as the market tests the 24.0073 level. Any move below 22.3205 will turn focus to support at the 20.6398 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/precious-metals-monday-12-12-2022"
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American Index S&P500: Potential Drop Ahead!

American stock index S&P500 broke the uptrend and got back to it. Currently, the asset is trying to pull from the broken trendline. However, the index will have to break the level of 3930 first. After that, it might potentially hit the level of 3600. So, let’s wait and see what is going to happen next.Bitcoin keeps moving along the level of 17000. It is likely to target the level of 18500 next. The upcoming flag formation on the chart might help Bitcoin head up.The currency pair EUR/USD keeps testing the weekly downtrend. Hence, the asset might target the supporting level of 1.0350 next to the broken uptrend, and jump.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/american-index-s-and-p500-potential-drop-ahead"
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Buying vs renting: as mortgage rates rise, which is cheaper?

In the UK, buying a home has traditionally been the preferred option over renting. But is that still true? Rebecca Goodman asks: which makes more sense financially - buying or renting?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/605524/buying-vs-renting
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Best areas for buy-to-let in the UK

If you’re thinking of getting a buy-to-let property you’ll want to know the areas in the country with the highest rental yields

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/buy-to-let/605473/best-areas-for-buy-to-let-in-the-uk
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Average monthly rent is up £117 from last year, says Zoopla

Rental unaffordability for single renters is the highest in over a decade.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605582/uk-rent-prices
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Technical Trade Set Ups For Gold, USDJPY & AUDCAD

Technical Trade Set Ups For Gold, USDJPY & AUDCAD

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/technical-trade-set-ups-for-gold-usdjpy-and-audcad"
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Heated airer vs dehumidifier – what’s the most cost-effective way to dry clothes indoors?

As energy bills continue to rise and temperatures keep dropping, we look at whether it’s cheaper to dry your clothes with a heated airer or with a dehumidifier.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605581/heated-airer-vs-dehumidifier
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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1508.75Pivot:1469.00Support:1423.25Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation9"
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S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:4173.25Pivot:3913.25Support:3751.75Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bullish due to the current price approaching to cross above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a possible shift to bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head up towards the resistance at 4173.25, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price could head back down to retest the pivot at 3913.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-e-mini-futures-es1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise9"
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How much should you save for retirement?

The majority of people under-save for retirement, but how much do you need for a comfortable life after work and what should you pay into your pot?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/pensions/605580/how-much-pension-do-i-need
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The investment trusts and funds to buy for 2023

With 2023 rapidly approaching, Rupert Hargreaves looks at some of the top investment trusts and funds to buy for the new year, with the help of AJ Bell’s Alena Kosava.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/605579/investment-trusts-and-funds-to-buy-for-2023
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Air fryer vs microwave – which is cheaper to run?

We compare the costs of an air fryer vs a microwave to see which one is more cost effective.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605578/air-fryer-vs-microwave
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Market Spotlight: USDCNH Falling as China Reopening Story Gathers Pace

USD Under Pressure USDCNH has seen a sharp sell-off over the last week or so. Part of this can be attributed to the softening we’ve seen in USD while the other driver is clearly the developments we’ve seen in China. On the USD front, the greenback has been well sold recently though the perspectives behind the move have shifted somewhat. USD had been weakening over prior months in line with the growing view that the Fed would soon pivot on rates. This fuelled an unwinding of USD longs which drove the early part of the declines in USDCNH.US Growth ConcernsHowever, more recently an upside in US labour data (specifically jobs and wages growth) has raised concerns that inflation might have lost downward momentum last month. If this proves to be the case at next week’s CPI release, this might well see the Fed emphasising the need to push ahead with further rate hikes, even at a slower pace. This view is seeing renewed growth concerns in the US, weighing on USD near-term.China ReopeningLooking ahead, the pair looks vulnerable to further downside given the growing focus on China reopening. The latest data this week underscored just how impacted the Chinese economy has been by the government’s zero covid policy. This, in line with China easing a slew of covid restrictions this week, if fuelling expectations that China will undergo a full reopening sooner rather than later. As this story gathers more traction we can expect USD to continue to fall against a rebounding CNH.Technical ViewsUSDCNHThe reversal lower in USDCNH has seen the market forming a head and shoulders pattern with the recent sell off marking a break below the neckline at 7.0425. While below here and below the broken bull trend line too, the focus is on a continuation lower towards the 6.7811 level next in line with bearish momentum studies readings.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-usdcnh-falling-as-china-reopening-story-gathers-pace"
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Is it time to buy Gilts?

Gilts offer a higher yield than most savings accounts and could be an attractive alternative for those with a large lump sum to invest.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/bonds/government-bonds/605577/is-it-time-to-buy-gilts
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Market Spotlight: BOC Meeting Not as Dovish as Some Expected

BOC Hikes and Keeps Options OpenThe Bank of Canada meeting yesterday was a more neutral affair than most were anticipating. The BOC hiked rates by a further .5%. in line with expectations. However, the accompanying language and outlook was not convincingly geared towards a pause. Interestingly, the market reaction to the meeting has seen CAD holding up for now, suggesting that CAD bears didn’t quite get the ammunition they needed.“Excess Demand”Looking at the breakdown of the comments, the BOC was seen showing some concern that the domestic labour market remains “tight” and the economy continues to run in “excess demand”. However, the BOC did contend that there is “growing evidence that tighter monetary policy is restraining domestic demand”. On inflation, the BOC noted that consumer prices are still too high though did note that there are some signs of inflation losing momentum.Rates OutlookFinally, then, on rates the BOC noted that it is “conspiring whether the policy rate needs to rise further”.  Clearly, there is room here for the bank to pause if deemed appropriate at the next meeting. However, there was no firm sign that a pause is coming and as such, CAD trader are left with a more neutral landscape and plenty of two-way risk moving forward.  The key now will be how inflation plays out over the coming months as well as the impact China reopening has on the global growth outlook. Falling oil prices suggest that the Canadian economy is likely to weaken a little near-term, cautioning against further rate hikes for now.Technical ViewsUSDCADThe recent breakout above the corrective bear channel has seen price trading up towards the 1.3839 level resistance. However, price has stalled for now. With momentum studies bullish, the focus remains on a continuation higher and a test of the level while above 1.3501. Below there, price might see a further downside test of the 1.3218 level.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-boc-meeting-not-as-dovish-as-some-expected"
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Dollar Slowly Gains Ground ahead of the Fed as Markets are Unsure about CB Pivot

After a positioning-driven rally in risk assets over the past couple of months, financial markets are returning to macroeconomic factors, where the 2023 global slowdown is in focus. Brent crude falls below $80 a barrel despite the OPEC+ supply cuts, bonds rise in price, and equities begin to lose some of their impressive rally from October lows. It is important to note that the US yield curve goes deeper into inversion (short-term rates are significantly higher than long-term ones). The 2-10 year Treasury curve is now inverted by 82bp. The behavior of the main market indicators resembles the anxiety of investors before the recession, but the Fed does not seem to be giving in. This environment remains favorable for the dollar and negative for commodity and pro-cyclical currencies. DXY has found support below 105 and could as well rise to 107 ahead of next week's FOMC meeting when the Fed is likely to signal little comfort with inflation with its Dot Plot.The main threat to the dollar's bullish outlook comes from the risk of any softer US price data for November (PPI released tomorrow, CPI next Tuesday) or a more positive reassessment of China's growth outlook amid Covid easing. However, poor China trade data released the day before serves as a reminder that the export environment will remain exceptionally challenging for China in 2023.It seems that EUR/USD trading has become more stable over the last week, however, EUR/USD realized weekly and monthly volatility is still above 13%. Last week's 1.0595 was a corrective high in EUR/USD - we should know much more by next Wednesday night after the FOMC meeting - and it will be interesting to see what the European Central Bank has to say about interest rates. Some speculate that the current lull in European bond markets may prompt the ECB to act a little more aggressively in its QT plans. Today, a couple of ECB speakers, Philip Lane and Fabio Panetta, are speaking, but it is unlikely that any of them will rebuke the market consensus on a 50 bp increase next week. For now, EUR/USD could drop to 1.0400 in calm markets.Trading conditions for the pound sterling have stabilized, with monthly trading volatility fairly stable around 12-13% and trading above 20% at the end of September. It looks like the stock market has grown enough for the moment that German bond spreads are now starting to widen again. In other words, the fiscal rally has exhausted itself, and the pound will no longer find strength here. If we turn to a more macroeconomic trading environment, then sterling should be lagging. The Fed, which remains hawkish, will return stock markets under pressure next week. This is generally a negative environment for the pound, where a large UK current account deficit is a downside factor. The GBP/USD pair has retreated from the strong resistance level at 1.23 and may return to the 1.19 area next week.The Bank of Canada (BoC) is making a monetary policy decision today. As discussed earlier, the consensus is split between a 25 and 50 basis point increase, but a half point increase looks more appropriate given strong economic activity and a very strong labor market. Nevertheless, the situation is almost enough for 50 bp, given that the expected economic downturn and the instability of the Canadian housing market speak in favor of a smaller rate hike. Markets are pricing this meeting at 35 basis points and are therefore slightly skating in favor of a quarter point gain: in the base case, the Canadian dollar should rise by 50 basis points on a hawkish surprise. However, the impact of BoC on CAD is likely to be short-lived as external factors remain more important. A sustained recovery of the Canadian dollar from these levels undoubtedly requires a recovery or at least stabilization in oil prices. Today USD/CAD may return below 1.3600, but short-term upside risks remain high.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dollar-slowly-gains-ground-ahead-of-the-fed-as-markets-are-unsure-about-cb-pivot"
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