Nine shared banking hubs revealed as more branches close

Locations for nine new banking hubs have been revealed, which aim to plug the gaps left by bank branch closures. We explain who can use them, and if there’s one near you.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605671/shared-banking-hubs
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Top 10 up-and-coming property areas in the UK

New research shows rural areas make for the best investment, while London boroughs dominated the bottom 10

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EURUSD consolidates ahead of the FOMC meeting

The dollar index started the week on a rather pessimistic note, trading below 102 points, suggesting that the market is setting low expectations for a hawkish Fed outcome on Wednesday. A moderate correction is taking place in the risk assets as a reaction to a possible turbulence due to a series of central bank meetings this week. Major European indexes and futures for US indices are in the red on Monday. The price of gold, which has been a pretty good proxy for expectations for the Fed's interest rate path since the beginning of this year, is consolidating around $1925, also indicating relatively mild expectations for a dovish Fed surprise.The dollar could come under pressure, with EUR/USD above 1.10 if the Fed makes a big surprise, in particular by saying that any additional rate hike after 25bp this week will depend on incoming data. However, the chance of such an outcome is low. It is more likely that the Fed will reject market expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in the second half of the year, in which case the dollar will move into a short-term rally.Potential EURUSD reaction following FOMC decisionIn addition to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, there are two important reports on the US economy on the US data calendar. First, the Fourth Quarter Labor Cost Indicator (ECI) is one of the Fed's preferred measures of price pressure in labor markets. This indicator rose to 1.4% in the first quarter of last year from the previous three months, but is expected to fall to 1.1% in the fourth quarter from 1.2% in the third. Any surprise upside here could see expectations shift towards a more hawkish FOMC decision. And on Friday, the US jobs report for January comes out.Clearly this is a busy week for FX and perhaps most of the volatility will come from the results of Wednesday night's FOMC meeting and the ECB/BoE decision on Thursday. The opening of Chinese markets after the public holiday of the Lunar New Year should also add some volatility to Asian markets price action. Investors are very optimistic about China reopening its doors and will need more data this week to see if the potential recovery momentum in the Chinese economy remains. Tomorrow we will see the Chinese PMI for January, where a significant rebound is expected to support the bullish positions on Chinese risk assets.The main view of the ECB meeting is that the central bank will remain hawkish and resist the 2024 easing. This should see EURUSD's 2-year swap differentials continue to narrow and be positive for EUR/USD. The narrowing of the swap differential is the main market factor in the EUR/USD appreciation.Before the ECB meeting on Thursday, euro zone economic confidence figures for January will be published today. They are expected to improve slightly, but any upside surprises will fuel the hypothesis of lower energy consumption and strong fiscal stimulus to ensure recessions, if any, are mild.A 50 basis point rate hike by the Bank of England could provide moderate support for the pound sterling. The base scenario for a 50 basis point upswing is not fully priced in by the market. And with wage pressures lingering and the impact of a low base not leading to a significant decline in the consumer price index until the second quarter, it looks like it's too early for the Bank of England to relax on the predictability of inflation. Depending on the state of the dollar after the FOMC meeting, by the end of the week GBP/USD may rise to 1.2500.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-consolidates-ahead-of-the-fomc-meeting"
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Daily Market Outlook, January 31, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 31, 2023 Nasdaq Back At Five Week Lows, Global Stocks Still Set For First Jan Gains Since 2020Jitters on Wall Street ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference saw investors paring risk positions, with Tesla giving back over 6% of recent gains, this led to the Nasdaq retreating by over 2% to close at five week lows. Monday’s trade got off to subdued start as Spanish inflation data came in hotter than expected, after a similar print in Australia, markets mulled a return to inflation concerns, however, this mornings French inflation print came in on the soft side, which has prompted US equity futures to turn positive on the session, those gains are proving hard to maintain as of the time of writing. Asian equities remain in the red by circa 1% but are off the worst levels from the overnight session.European investors will eye flash Eurozone GDP data this morning, sentiment reads for the period imply positive inputs will provide a more upbeat number than the weaker Q4 data. In the UK political pressure mounts once again as Chancellor Hunt’s recovery plan appears to have done little to reassure markets, with the IMF confirming that the UK is the only G7 economy to receive a downgrade to their 2023 economic outlook, the IMF predicts the UK economy is set to decline by 0.6% in 2023 a stark contrast to the prior growth expectations of 0.3%In the US, the employment cost index is due late today, a favourite read for Fed officials in gauging labour market cost pressures, this will provide a final indication of inflation pressures ahead of Wednesday’s key central bank decision. Market watchers have pencilled in a rise of 1.2% in line with the Q3 print, this will confirm Fed concerns that the labour market remains too tight to take their foot of the gas with respect to the current rate cycle.Markets-wise, European bourses, FTSE & EuroStoxx are opening flat to marginally down, early indications were for weaker opens, however, the French CPI miss has provided some modest support as investors start to pair risk positions ahead of the trifecta of central bank decisions ahead with the FOMC, ECB & BoE all on deck in the next 72hrs. The dollar has caught a modest bid confirming the retreat in risk appetite to trade above the 102 handle, with the Euro looking to test 1.08, month end today FX volatility likely to be seen around London fixing at 4pm GMT as month end flows kick in (see Barclays Month End signal note below). As well as the central bank risk ahead, investors will also receive a number of significant earnings reports in the coming days with Meta, Apple, Amazon and Google all set to report, buckle up for a busy second half of the week which will be capped off on Friday with the all important Non Farm Payroll release!Overnight News of NoteAsian Stocks Slip As Investors Eye Looming Central Bank Rate DecisionsNasdaq 100 Suffers Its Biggest Drop In A MonthGold Edges Higher, On Track For Third Straight Monthly GainIMF Raises World Economic Outlook For The First Time In A YearChina Economic Activity Swings Back To Growth In JanuaryChina ForMin Seeks Stronger Economic Ties With Saudi ArabiaJapan Dec Factory Output Inches Down, Retail Sales Beat EstimatesJapan FinMin: Too Early To Consider Reviewing Gov't-BoJ StatementAustralia Dec Retail Sales Post First Fall Of 2022; Yields DropUS Treasury Increases Borrowing Estimate For The First QuarterWhite House To End Covid-19 Emergency Declarations On May 11IMF Slashes UK Growth Outlook, Adding Pressure On Chancellor HuntIsrael Drone Responsible For Strike On Iranian Weapons FacilityDollar Set For Fourth Monthly Drop As Fed Meeting LoomsYen’s Rally Comes Unstuck As Traders Eye Hawkish Fed OutcomeOil Set For Monthly Drop As Chinese Demand, Fed Meeting In FocusWhirlpool Sees Improving Profitability As Material Costs EaseWashington Halts Licences For US Companies To Export To HuaweiSamsung Electronics Q4 Profit Plummets Amid Global Chip Downturn(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST(BOLD expiries with a value of a Billion+ more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)EURUSD 1.0875, 1.0855, 1.0900USDJPY 130.00, 129.00 127.50AUDUSD .7075USDCNY 6.8000CFTC Data As of 27/01 ( Source Reuters)USD net spec short in the Jan 18-24 period; $IDX -0.46%EUR$ +0.86% in period, specs buy 7,365 contract long now +134,349$JPY +1.56% in period yen short cut by 1,326 contracts now -21,635GBP$ +0.44$ in period, short reduced by 763 contracts to -23,934CAD specs -3,453 contracts now -30,712; AUD specs +449 contract now -33,171BTC +7.45%, spec short increased by 810 contracts now -1,437Next week's data likely mooted by Fed, ECB, BoE meets Feb 1-2 after period closesTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4040Primary support is 4000Primary objective is 4138Below 3990 opens 395020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0820Primary support  is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.10Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2320Primary support  is 1.2180Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2150  opens 1.210020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6990Primary support is .6940Primary objective is .7250Below .6930 opens .687020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bearish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22100Primary support 21400Primary objective is 25000Below 21000 opens 2030020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-31-2023"
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Top 10 areas most immune to a house price crash

New research pinpoints the towns, cities and London boroughs most insulated from house price falls this year - and which are the most exposed.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605669/areas-most-immune-to-a-house-price-crash
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Fund platform launches low cost £4.99 a month service for small investors - we see how it compares

Aimed at investors with small investment pots of £30k or less, fund platform interactive investors has launched a low costs service - but is it any good and how does it compare to rivals?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/interactive-investor-launches-low-cost-platform
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Market Spotlight: Computacenter Shares Jump on Profit Guidance

Better 2022 Results Shares in UK listed Computacenter, Europe’s chief independent provider of IT infrastructure services, are up over 7% today. The move comes in response to updated from the company today with 2022 results now projected to be better than initially expected. Total revenues over last year were seen 30% above the company’s own forecasts for the period (gross invoices) with Computacenter citing the benefit of a stronger US Dollar as well as an acquisition made in H2 2022.The company noted strong demand from all markets for its technology sourcing products. Additionally, the group noted decent services revenues also though did note that its services margins were impacted by the unwinding of covid-related benefits as well as the dampening effects of elevated inflation.Reduced Covid Impact Looking ahead, however, the group is confident in delivering further strong results this year, noting negative covid-related issues have now passed through. Shares are now up more than 14% on the year and look set for further gains should the BOE this week begin to steer away from aggressive monetary tightening.Technical ViewsComputacenterThe rally has seen price breaking above the 2100 level and above the bearish trend line from last year’s highs. With momentum studies turning bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above the 2100 level. Above here, the next area to watch is the bull channel top and 2255 level (prior broken lows). A move above here will be firmly bullish for the stock medium-term.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-computacenter-shares-jump-on-profit-guidance"
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Precious Metals Monday 30-01-2023

Metals Rally Pauses For Now The metals complex is seeing a weaker opening on Monday with both gold and silver trading in the red as European markets open. Gold has enjoyed a strong start to the year ahead of the recent soft patch with gold futures rallying around 7% off the YTD lows, trading up to levels not seen since Q2 2022. With the US Dollar having started the year on a weak footing, the outlook for metals looks fairly clear; should USD continue lower, metals have room to break higher, any reversal higher in USD, metals are vulnerable to a reversal lower.With this in mind, the key focus for metals traders this week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The central expectation is now for the Fed to pivot further via a smaller .25% rate increase. With the move well-expected, the bigger focus will be on the Fed’s guidance. If there is any indication that the Fed will be looking to pursue a slower pace of tightening, or even bring forward the likely end point/date of tightening, this will be firmly bullish for metals, with USD likely to come under heavy selling pressure. However, should the Fed surprise by either sticking to a .5% hike, or sticking with its hawkish outlook on rates (to end above 5%, to continue through 2023), this could well see metals coming off as USD rebounds.Technical ViewsGoldThe rally in gold prices, framed by the narrow bullish channel off last year’s lows, has stalled for now with price drooping back onto the 1916.34 level, which is holding as support. While this level holds, the focus is on a continuation higher with 1973. 51 the next key upside level to note. However, momentum studies are weakening here, raising risks of a reversal lower. Should price move back under current support, focus shifts to the channel lows and 1871.04 as the next key support area.SilverThe rally in silver prices off last year’s lows has seen the market stalled firmly into a test of the 24.0073 level. This area has capped price since early December and shows no signs of letting up yet. Despite the market having broken below the rising channel off last year’s lows, the fact that 24.0073 is acting like a magnet for price reflects pent up bullish pressure, keeping the focus on an eventual break higher.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/precious-metals-monday-30-01-2023"
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Daily Market Outlook, January 30, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 30, 2023 Central Bank Decisions To Dominate The Data Docket For the WeekAsian markets have started the week with a mixed tone as investors prepare for major central bank decisions from the US, Europe and the UK. The paring in risk appetite comes against a backdrop that has been broadly constructive for the opening month of the year, investors continue to pin their hopes on peak inflation having passed, focus now shifts to the global growth narrative and central bank policy. Chinese markets have returned from the Lunar New year holiday in somewhat soggy spirits nursing losses of just under 2% on the session.Ahead of the trifecta of central bank decisions later in the week, European investors will eye flash German GDP this morning, sentiment reads for the period imply positive inputs will provide a more upbeat number than the weaker Q4 data. Spain released CPI figures for January which came in hotter than expected 5.8% v 4.7% expected, providing further cover for hawkishness from the ECB. In the UK the Lloyds Business Barometer was released overnight, showing a more positive tone for business in January, printing a second consecutive monthly uptick to 22%, the best levels seen in the last six months of data.In the US, the data docket is pretty sparse today, instead investors will be prepping for Tuesday’s employment cost index for Q4 ‘22, Wednesday bring the critical FOMC decision and press conference, Thursday sess ISM manufacturing data and the we is rounded out with a pivotal Non Farm payrolls release.Markets-wise, European bourses have opened with a softer tone, the FTSE and the EuroStoxx both in the red, following from a tepid session in Assia, US futures are also pointing south with losses of just under 1%. Spanish CPI released this morning has done little to help the retreat in risk sentiment with a hotter print, a concern for European investors as they mull tiger for longer ECB action and rhetoric. US 10yr yields remain steady around 3.5%, with Dollar marginally softer on the session but still rotating around the 102 handle, Crude has leaked lower overnight trading sub  $80, while Gold remains bid above 1900.Overnight News of NoteStocks Mixed In Choppy Trading With China, Fed In LimelightOil Swings As Traders Track China’s Return And Mideast StrikeChina Stocks Flirt With Bull Market On Return From HolidaysChina Central Bank To Roll Over Lending Tools To Spur GrowthChina Vows To Boost Consumption To Power Economic RecoveryChina Economy Shows Muted Improvement During Holiday PeriodBoJ Kuroda: Possible To Hit Stable Inflation With Continued EasingKey Panel Urges BoJ To Make 2% Inflation Target Long-Term GoalMcCarthy And Biden To Discuss Debt Ceiling On WednesdayScholz Doubles Down On Refusal Of Fighter Jets For UkraineSpain’s Biggest Banks Prepare To Challenge Windfall TaxUK Business Confidence Bounces Back But Interest Rates Will RiseUS Dollar Cautiously Firm Ahead Of Busy Central Bank WeekHedge Funds Boost Treasury Shorts To Record On Doubts Over RallyPension Funds In Historic Surplus Eye $1 Trillion Of Bond-BuyingStocks Poised To Hit New Lows This Year, Survey Of Investors Shows(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST(BOLD expiries with a value of a Billion+ more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)EURUSD 1.0950, 1.07USDJPY 131.40 130.00AUDUSD .7050CFTC Data ( Source Reuters)USD net spec short in the Jan 18-24 period; $IDX -0.46%EUR$ +0.86% in period, specs buy 7,365 contract long now +134,349$JPY +1.56% in period yen short cut by 1,326 contracts now -21,635GBP$ +0.44$ in period, short reduced by 763 contracts to -23,934CAD specs -3,453 contracts now -30,712; AUD specs +449 contract now -33,171BTC +7.45%, spec short increased by 810 contracts now -1,437Next week's data likely mooted by Fed, ECB, BoE meets Feb 1-2 after period closesTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4000 - 4065 Target Hit, New Pattern DevelopingPrimary support is 3935Primary objective is 4138Below 3920 opens 389020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0820Primary support  is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.10Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2340Primary support  is 1.2180Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2150  opens 1.210020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7060Primary support is .6950Primary objective is .7250Below .6930 opens .687020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bullish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22900Primary support 21400Primary objective is 25000Below 21000 opens 2030020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-30-2023"
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USDCAD, H4 | Potential reversal off a key support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleTitle USDCAD, H4 | Potential reversal off a key supportTypeBullish ReversalPreference:We are seeing price rebound off the round number level and key support of 1.33. There is a chance price might reverse from here to climb toward the previous swing high and resistance level at 1.34

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/title-usdcad-h4-or-potential-reversal-off-a-key-support"
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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Rise is Still Ahead

Bitcoin is pulling back from the level of 22500, therefore the bulls keep on pushing the coin till the resistance level of 25000. The asset is likely to head up and possibly retest the level of 22500 soon. So, let’s observe what will happen this week.American stock index S&P 500 has touched a very important weekly downtrend. Last week the index was below this downtrend. Now, the asset’s price is trying to pull back and drop. However, it would be wise to check the candlestick formations to figure out the asset’s moves. The index might also break the downtrend and jump.Oil has pulled from the broken downtrend and the horizontal level of 86.00. Oil might potentially jump and hit the level of 100 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-rise-is-still-ahead"
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AUDUSD. H4 | bullish opportunity

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analystAUDUSD, H4 | Potential to swing high TypeBullish ReversalPreference:We're seeing price test a key overlap support at 0.70624. There's a chance price might reverse from here to push prices all the way down to 1st resistance at 0.71322. The 1st support at 0.68722.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-bullish-opportunity"
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Self-assessment tax returns: what you need to know about getting your tax bill right

Understanding how self assessment works can help you ensure you pay the right amount of tax, as well as avoid penalties for missing the deadline.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/tax/income-tax/605569/self-assessment-tax-return-deadline
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Renting a slice of heaven on Moorea

Chris Carter heads to French Polynesia in search of his own private paradise

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/spending-it/travel-and-holidays/605664/renting-a-slice-of-heaven
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Preview of the Fed Meeting: Finding a Balance is a Tough Task

Last year the Fed pursued the most aggressive monetary policy in many years, but in December 2022, officials began laying the groundwork for reducing the pace of tightening to standard 25 bp hike. There are signs that the US expansion is losing momentum while risks of sharper inflation easing gradually build up which contribute to an increasingly dovish market bias regarding the Fed actions in 2023, including rate cuts.After raising fed funds rate by a total of 4.25% in 2022, which consisted of a series of 75bp and 50bp hikes, the Fed hinted in December that the tightening episode may be coming to an end. The market in response revised the peak Fed rate from 5% to 4.75%. While inflation is still well above its 2% target and unemployment near historic lows, evidence is accumulating at the Fed that policy transmission (i.e., effects of monetary tightening) is becoming more significant and therefore the risks of policy overshooting are rising. This can be seen primarily in the real estate market, where mortgage rates reacted quite quickly, limiting mortgage demand, and thereby putting pressure on prices:As a result, rental rates began to creep down, albeit with some delay. This delayed effect is expected to be fully felt by mid-2023, which creates risks of a faster than expected decline in the Core PCE index, the main inflation metric for the Fed. Against the backdrop of these fears, the "sensitivity" of market participants to a potential error in the Fed's policy has increased, and asset prices may be inclined to overreact even to slightly hawkish policy hints. An excessively dovish line, in turn, can also turn into trouble - the market may perceive this as an imminent transition to lower rates, which in turn may cause unwanted easing of credit conditions, which will only further spin the inflation flywheel.The economic data for the US, published on Friday, did not contain big surprises, Core PCE in December rose by 4.4% (in line with the forecast), consumer spending decreased in monthly terms slightly more than expected - by 0.2%. The dollar index continues to move in a narrowing triangle, trying to find a balance near the level of 102:It is clear that the US currency will likely pick direction after the Fed meeting, given that the sloping triangle in the bearish trend is a breakout figure, a bottom-up breakdown of the level of 101.50 is more likely to mean that the next market target is a round level of 100 points.The data shows that the EURUSD's six-hour reaction to last year's decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) caused a movement within +/- 0.7%. And the currency options market prices in a 90-pip range for the EURUSD pair over the period covering the Fed and ECB meetings next week.The decision of the Bank of Canada to stop the tightening cycle at the level of 4.50% made an interesting impression on the dollar market - the US currency was also sold based on the fact that global central banks tend to synchronize their policy, that is, as a signal that the Fed might be preparing to complete the tightening.This suggests that the FOMC meeting may be more interesting for EURUSD than the market currently expects. The base case assumes that EURUSD continues to trade around 1.08/1.09 ahead of the FOMC meeting. Any suggestion that the Fed has all but stopped the tightening could see the EURUSD move to 1.10. However, the signal from the Fed that the potential for a 50 bp rate change persists, will most likely send the EURUSD to the 1.07 level.More broadly, EURUSD is likely to continue rising this year – possibly to 1.15 in the second quarter – this will be a time when US inflation reports will likely contain more downside surprises and China’s “restart” will be a tailwind for cyclical currencies, including the Euro.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/preview-of-the-fed-meeting-finding-a-balance-is-a-tough-task"
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The High Income Child Benefit Charge - is it the most illogical, unfair and unnecessary tax?

We may not like taxes, but this one is blatantly unfair, penalises middle income earners and adds to the gender pensions gap, says Kalpana Fitzpatrick.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605663/high-income-child-benefit-charge-tax
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Which house-price index is the best?

Britain is obsessed with house prices, and we have at least four house-price indices to choose from to measure the rate of increase in the value of our properties. But how do they differ, and which is the best?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/3270/which-house-price-index-is-the-best-60003
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Market Spotlight: Tesla & US Core PCE

Risk Rallies on GDP Beat – PCE Up NextOn the back of better-than-forecast advanced Q4 GDP yesterday, traders are now looking to today’s US core PCE data to provide the final insight ahead of the FOMC next week. Given that the PCE data is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, over CPI, the data is always a key release for traders to monitor. With the market now looking to anticipate future Fed action, this month’s result will be even more closely watched.Downside Data RisksAt this point, a .25% hike looks to be a done deal with today’s data unlikely to show any surprise upside. Indeed, on the back of the recent declines in inflation we’ve seen, risks are skewed to the downside and should we see any print below market forecasts this will likely see risk assets firmly higher into the weekend with USD likely to come off.Tesla In FocusIn the US, stocks have been boosted on the back of yesterday’s GDP data, shrugging off disappointing results from Microsoft and Intel over the week. Instead, record profits from Tesla and the accompanying spike in its share price have become more important to the lower Fed rates narrative. With this in mind, Tesla stock looks well positioned to move higher should today’s data confirm a further slowdown in PCE.Technical ViewsTESLAThe rally off the lows has seen Tesla shares breaking above the bear channel from last year’s highs. Price is now fast approaching a test of the 170.22 level. This will be the first major resistance the current rally has encountered. With momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a further push higher near-term with 207.71 the next level to watch above this.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-tesla-and-us-core-pce"
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Market Spotlight: Is Bitcoin Beginning A Fresh Bull Run?

Risk Markets Holding Up Ahead of FedDespite some nervousness in markets on the back of a gloomy outlook from Intel yesterday, tech assets appear to be holding up today ahead of the US open. Indeed, despite some intra-day volatility yesterday, the NASDAQ rebounded to end the day higher. Looking across the risk markets, crypt assets are also performing well this week with Bitcoin consolidating at highs following a solid rally over 2023 so far. With price holding above the 22600 level, the clear focus now is the FOMC next week.Bitcoin Outlook ImprovingThe Fed’s tightening program across 2022 sent Bitcoin plummeting from record highs. However, with the outlook for the Fed and US rates having shifted materially in recent months, the market is now finding fresh demand and traders are questioning whether BTC is at the start of a fresh bull phase.FOMC In FocusLooking ahead to next week’s FOMC meeting, the battle lines are clearly drawn. If the Fed sticks to a further .5% hike and signals the need to keep pressing ahead with tightening into 2024, striking a more cautious tone over inflation, USD is likely to rebound sharply, sending BTC lower once again. However, if the Fed pivots again towards a smaller .25% (now base case scenario), this will pave the way for a lower USD and higher prices for BTC. The main focus will then be on the Fed’s outlook. If the Fed is seen sounding more optimistic about inflation and opens the door to potentially bringing forward the end of its tightening program (as we just saw from the BOC), this should send USD sharply lower, driving BTC higher near-term.Technical ViewsBTCThe rally in BTC this year has seen the market blowing through several key technical levels. More recently, price has broken above the 22600 level and is currently sitting atop the level as support. While above here, and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher towards 24930 next. This will be a major test for the market with a break there likely to encourage plenty of fresh buying interest.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-is-bitcoin-beginning-a-fresh-bull-run"
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How to invest in gold

Gold can be a good way to diversify your investments and help during difficult markets. We look at how to get started with the precious metal.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/2342/a-beginners-guide-to-investing-in-gold
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US Data Surprises Helps the USD to Stage Mini-Rebound

Currency markets continue to remain in a relative equilibrium with FX majors fluctuating in fairly narrow ranges. US broad equity indices also lack direction, the key benchmark of the market, S&P 500, after two mini-selloffs to 3900 and 3960 in January, remains tied to the level of 4000 points. Oil (WTI benchmark) has been rising since the beginning of the year, but so far without serious prospects, facing strong resistance in the area of 82-82.5 dollars per barrel.The macro picture of the market suggests that investors are clearly waiting for the easing of the Fed's stance in the first quarter of 2023 in response to slowing inflation and somewhat deteriorating activity data, but there is doubt on whether the reaction will be adequate to the risks that have arisen. On the one hand, if the Fed gets worried and signals a quick end to the tightening cycle, risk assets will continue to rise, and the dollar will go to new lows. On the other hand, if fears of an “inflation comeback” and confidence that the economy is strong enough among the policymakers, markets will likely price in the Fed’s policy error that will accelerate the onset of recession, what will clearly be risk-negative event. Hence the absence of pronounced trends in the market, since it is not clear what the Fed will put at the forefront in this situation. This uncertainty will likely be the key near-term trading theme until the middle of next week, when the Fed will hold a meeting on monetary policy.Thursday's economic calendar contained some interesting surprises, including an unexpected strong growth in January in US durable goods orders (5.6% YoY growth, 2.5% forecast) and fourth-quarter GDP (2.9% QoQ, 2.6% forecast). Employment in the US continues to inspire calm, initial applications rose by 186K against the forecast of 205K. Slightly higher than the forecast were long-term claims for unemployment benefits - 1.675 million, the forecast was 1.659 million:Despite waves of sales, the dollar index is offered a quite solid support at 101.50. It is worth noting that the buyers' confidence in the dollar's rebound is falling, which can be seen from the gradual decrease in the amplitude of upward corrections in January, which forms the “triangle” pattern. This figure in a downtrend is often interpreted as a trend continuation pattern:Today's data helped the USD to stage a mini-rebound that reflects reducing bets on a dovish outcome of the Fed meeting in February. However, the dollar index is unlikely to move into an uptrend now: bullish momentum can definitely lead to a breakout of the level of 102 with an upside correction to 102.2-102.3, however, the market is unlikely to take medium-term direction before the FOMC meeting outcome. A short-term tactic in this situation may be to short EUR, GBP and USDJPY with positions covered closer to the middle of next week.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us-data-surprises-helps-the-usd-to-stage-mini-rebound"
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Almost 1.5 million more people will be dragged into higher tax bands by 2027

Frozen income tax allowances mean considerably more people will have to start paying higher-rate and additional-rate tax. We explain what you can do to avoid the fiscal drag.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605662/one-five-million-more-people-dragged-into-higher-tax-bands
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Market Spotlight: Trading Today's Adv Q4 US GDP

US GDP Up NextLooking ahead to today’s US session, the key events will be the release of advanced US GDP for Q4. The data is drawing a great deal of attention ahead of the first FOMC meeting of the year next week and should we see any surprise in the release, volatility can be expected across financial markets today.In terms of numbers, the market is looking for GDP growth of 2.6%. While down from the prior month’s 3. 2% reading, a print in this region should be relatively encouraging for risk sentiment. Such a reading would be broadly in line with the view that the US is at risk of a mild recession later this year. If data is in line with forecasts, movement is likely to be limited with traders instead preferring to wait for the Fed next week.Trading ScenariosHowever, if we see any upside surprise, this will likely be taken as a very encouraging sign by stock traders, helping lift risk sentiment across the board. The Fed is widely expected to opt for a slower pace of tightening next week and so a higher USD looks unlikely to be the outcome. However, should data surprise to the downside, we can expect USD to strengthen via safe-haven demand with stocks likely to be lower across the board.Technical ViewsNASDAQFor now, the index is holding above the 11540.72 level, underpinned by the bull channel support. The market is testing above the bear trend line form last year’s highs and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above 11540.72. To the topside, 12220.22 is the next hurdle for bulls with a break there opening the way for a higher move towards 12875.84 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-today-s-adv-q4-us-gdp"
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How to check your council tax band

With council tax bill set to rise this year by an average 5%, make sure you’re not paying any more than you have to by checking you’re in the right council tax band.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/605661/check-council-tax-band
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Daily Market Outlook, January 26, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 26, 2023 Asian Markets Back Online & In Buoyant Spirits With Hong Kong Scaling 7 Month HighsAsian markets are trading with a mixed tone, the standout exception is the Hong Kong market which has opened with a strong risk on posture, as the Hang Seng printed fresh seven month highs. The handover from Wall Street was mixed, however all the major indices staged significant intraday reversals from lows to close broadly unchanged on the session, overnight Tesla earnings provided support for bulls as earnings and revenues topped estimates, although margins contracted, Tesla shares were seen up 5.5% in post market trade. With no econ data of note for European trading, investor focus shifts to the US session, where US Q4 GDP is set to be released this afternoon. Markets expect the print to confirm a second successive quarter of growth reversing declines witnessed in the first half of 2022, softness seen in some December inputs suggests that growth may be lower than previously expected, however, growth is expected to confirm a 2.2-2.6% annualised uptick quarter over quarter. The Fed is deemed to still view this as a hotter than wanted levels of activity, the policy response to this level of growth will likely see the FOMC maintain a cautious tone at the Feb 1 meeting, with markets fully pricing a 0.25bps move, any upside surprise to the data would like see markets rapidly repricing a 50bps move, the data comes during the Fed black out period so markets wont get any response from Fed officials. Other US data of note comes in the form of weekly jobless claims, expected show a small uptick, signalling slight softness in the employment outlook, another round of housing data is expected to confirm continued pressure in the sector with new homes sales believed to cool further in December dropping from 640k to 617kMarkets-wise, European bourses have opened on the front foot, buoyed by Tesla earnings and the upbeat outlook provided by Tesla CEO Musk, robust earnings out of STMicroelectronics were well received,  helping cement the constructive opening to European trade with the FTSE & Eurostoxx in the green. US equity futures are also in positive territory as the Dollar remains pressured below the 102 level, supporting EUR and GBP. Crude continues to cling to the $80 handle with Gold closing on the 1950 target.Overnight News of NoteBitcoin Tops $23.7K In Wednesday Comeback - CoinDeskAsian Shares Scale Fresh 7-Month High As Hong Kong Trade ResumesChina Stocks Rally In Hong Kong As Holiday Spending RecoversBoJ Policymakers Divided On Wage, Inflation Outlook, Jan Opinions ShowsFear of BOJ Turning Hawkish Spurs 94% Jump In Shorter Bond SalesUS Economic Growth Set To Have Slowed In Fourth Quarter Of 2022Housing Demand Climbs As US Market Starts To Show Signs Of LifeUS And Germany To Send Main Battle Tanks To UkraineBoC’s Macklem Says He Is 'Not Even Thinking' Of Cutting RatesUK Business Confidence Drops To Lowest Since Financial CrisisDollar Near Eight-Month Low Ahead Of Central Bank MeetingsOil Edges Higher On Outlook For Chinese Demand And Weaker DollarChevron To Buy Back $75 Billion In Stock After Record ProfitsTesla Seeks To Boost Output Quickly As Profit Beats EstimatesIBM To Cut About 3,900 Workers, Still Hiring In ‘Higher Growth’ AreasDOT Probes Southwest Airlines Scheduling After Holiday-Travel MeltdownChina Stocks Rally In Hong Kong As Holiday Spending Recovers(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST(BOLD expiries with a value of a Billion+ more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)USDJPY 130.00USDCHF .9795Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 3985Primary support is 3885Primary objective is 4065Below 3840 opens 380020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0835Primary support  is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.10Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2340Primary support  is 1.2180Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2150  opens 1.210020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7060Primary support is .6950Primary objective is .7250Below .6930 opens .687020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bullish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22500Primary support 20300Primary objective is 25000Below 20200 opens 1940020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-26-2023"
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Fan heater vs oil heater – which is cheaper?

Sales of portable heaters have soared, as households look to cut their energy costs. But which is better: a fan heater or an oil heater? We put them to the test to see which one comes out cheaper.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605529/fan-heater-vs-oil-heater
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The State Pension triple lock is doomed to fail

The State Pension triple lock guarantees an increase in the state pension every year, but this assumes government income grows every year as well, which it doesn't. That will lead to problems.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/state-pension-triple-lock
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What are the UK’s most expensive postcodes to buy a house in?

Data from estate agent comparison site GetAgent reveals the UK’s priciest and cheapest postcodes to buy a property in

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/605659/most-expensive-postcodes-to-buy
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Ignore the doomsayers - things are looking bright for the bulls

Everywhere you look there seems to be bad news, but if past trends are anything to go by, 2023 could be a bumper year for equity returns says Dominic Frisby

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/605658/looking-bright-for-the-bulls
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Market Spotlight: Tesla Earnings in Focus Today

Tesla Up NextAs US earnings season rolls on, focus today lands on Elon Musk and Tesla. On the back of Musk’s eventual takeover of Twitter, and all the controversy surrounding it, traders are keen to see how Musk’s primary business performed over the period. On the numbers front, Wall Street is looking for an EPS of $1.12 on revenues of $24.66 billion. This would mark a firm increase on the prior quarter and the eighth consecutive quarter of earnings growth for Tesla.Musk in Court Musk is currently on trial facing charges of fraud over a tweet put out in 2018 where Musk claimed he had enough funding to take Tesla private. Shares in Tesla surged on the back of the communication form Musk only to reverse sharply weeks later when Musk said ‘the deal’ was no longer going ahead. This is the latest controversy for Musk who was recently forced to make good on his takeover bid for Twitter to avoid further legal action.Improving 2023 Outlook Still, ahead of the group’s Q4 earnings today, analyst expectations for Tesla are firmly bullish. The negative factors which have weighed on the company over the last six months have been thoroughly reflected in price and now with the US interest rate outlook shifting materially and China reopening, the outlook for 2023 has improved considerably which makes Tesla a good candidate for a buy and hold through the year. Tesla has slashed vehicle prices recently on two key models which should help feed into better demand this year while the company will also benefit from reductions in prices of key commodities used in its manufacturing process.Technical ViewsTeslaThe decline in Tesla from summer 2022 highs has been framed by a clearly mapped bear channel. However, after stalling into a test of support at 108.24, Tesla shares have since turned higher and are now attempting to break out above the bear channel. The key level to watch will be the 170.22 region, a break of which will turn the near-term outlook firmly bullish with 207.71 the next target for bulls.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-tesla-earnings-in-focus-today"
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Aussie Soars As CPI Hits 33-year Highs

Q4 Inflation Spikes HigherThe Australian Dollar is seeing a flood of demand today on the back of the latest CPI figures, released overnight. Aussie inflation was seen spiking back up to 1.9%, quarter-on-quarter, up from 1.8% prior and above the 1.6% the market was looking for. The year-on-year figure was seen rising back up to 8.4%, a more than 1% jump from the prior 7.3% reading. The Q4 inflation reading marked its highest level since January 1980, driven by increases in transport costs, food prices and new dwelling construction costs.RBA ConcernsIn all, these inflation readings paint a worrying picture for the RBA. On the monthly figure, after flattening out for two months, prices have started to lift again. While there are certain factors recently which might have contributed to a temporary spike in inflation (bad weather, supply issues), the quarterly reading is worrying and suggests that the RBA still has further to go with its tightening program. The bank was among the first to pivot on rates last year and there is some concern now that the bank might have slowed the pace of tightening too early and will now need to play catch up to bring inflation down again.Holiday Costs See Big JumpLooking at the breakdown of the data there are some interesting points indeed. Holiday prices, which spike 11% on the prior month in December 2021 were seen spiking 27% in December 2022. Recreation costs were also seen jumping more than 10% on the prior month. These marked the two biggest cost increases. Given that December is a key holiday time in Australia, there is some credence to viewing these increases as transitory cost jumps which will likely flatten out now.AUD Well Bid Following DataHowever, the market reaction is key here. Aussie government bond yields have spiked on the back of the release. AUD too has been higher across the board, reflecting traders’ expectations that the RBA will either push ahead with a larger hike at the February meeting or signal that its tightening program will need to run longer than forecast. In both cases, AUD looks likely to remain well supported moving forward as the market re-prices the Aussie rate-path for the year ahead.Technical ViewsAUDUSDThe recent retest of the .6857 level has seen the Aussie turning higher again with price now having broken through initial 2023 highs to test the .7130 level. With momentum studies firmly bullish here and with the retail market heavily short, AUDUSD has room to move up to .7287 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/aussie-soars-as-cpi-hits-33-year-highs"
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Weak UK PMI data points to further Pound weakness

Incoming data on the EU economy roughly correspond to the thesis put forward by the market that the EU bloc will be able to dodge a recession. The PMI index from S&P Global climbed into the positive zone in January, amounting to 50.2 points against the forecast of 49.8 points. Positive MoM dynamics are being observed for the first time since June last year.A number of factors contributed to the optimism, from a faster slowdown in inflation and improved supply chains to mild weather that helped the EU avoid an energy crisis.Activity indices in the EU's two largest economies, France and Germany, remained at levels below 50 points, but there was a surprising improvement in the service sector in Germany and in the manufacturing sector in France.The ECB has already raised rates by 2.5% and is expected to make another 50bp hike next week. What happens after is unclear: some Governing Council officials suggest it may be appropriate to slow down the pace of tightening, others continue to insist on the need for significant increases. The hawkish ECB case in 2023 finds its justification mainly in a strong labor market: employment continued to rise in December, supporting high wage growth, which usually generates the lion's share of domestic inflation.Unlike the EU, the situation in the UK is less rosy. The S&P Global PMI index for the British economy dived deeper into the recession zone, to 47.8 points in January against 49 points in December. This means that the rate of deterioration in activity has been accelerating this month:The negative momentum prevailed in the services sector, but manufacturers also reported that output declined in January at the fastest pace since the start of the pandemic. The pound fell by 0.6% after the release of the index for January. Market participants are beginning to price in the idea that the BoE will be forced to delay the moment for the tightening cycle. Traders are looking for another 50 bp hike, according to the current valuation in February and by 25 bp in March. Additional pressure on the pound was also exerted by the publication of data on the UK budget deficit. It swelled by £27.4bn from a forecast of £17.3bn, an outcome that calls into question fiscal stimulus hopes, raising the risk of a UK recession in 2023.From a technical point of view, GBPUSD has broken through the lower limit of the short-term range of 1.231 - 1.23, and now the next sellers' target is likely to be 1.2250. In the event that the price encounters weak resistance, there will be no potential bounce to 1.23 (which will already be a resistance zone) and the price will continue to move towards the main support at 1.22, as shown in the chart below:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/weak-uk-pmi-data-points-to-further-pound-weakness"
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7 ways to reduce your inheritance tax bill

The inheritance tax threshold cap has been extended until 2028, which will result in higher tax bills for many - we look at how to keep you inheritance tax bill to a minimum.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/tax/inheritance-tax/605548/reduce-inheritance-tax-bill
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House prices could fall 30%. Should investors be worried about a repeat of 2008?

Some analysts are predicting that house prices could fall as much as 30%, which, when compared to the fact that prices have jumped 28% since April 2019 doesn’t seem too unrealistic. But could this cause another financial crisis?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/605656/uk-house-prices-crash-coming
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Market Spotlight: EZ Service Sector Back in Growth While UK Slumps Further

UK Service Sector in Trouble The latest set of PMI readings for the eurozone and the UK today highlighted some clear divergence with regards to economic performance between the two. In the eurozone, the services sector was seen moving back into positive territory last month, printing 50.7, up from 47.8 in November. This marked a strong increase and was above market forecasts for a 50 reading. However, in the UK, the services sector was seen falling further into contractionary territory at 48 from 49.9 previous, well below the 49.6 the market was looking for.Factory Sector Slightly Better Factory sector readings were similar. While in the UK there was a small improvement, at 46,7 from 45.3 prior the sector was still in negative growth territory last month. In the eurozone, the factory sector remained in negative territory also though at 48.8, up from 47.8 prior, was a little stronger than in the UK.Ongoing IssuesMuch has been made of the UK’s post-Brexit struggle and these latest business survey results show that these difficulties have not yet passed. While the BOE governor recently offered reassurance that the UK economy had turned a corner, there is still plenty of downside risk for the UK as Brexit, difficulties, covid disruption and ongoing industrial action continue to thwart many business sectors at a time when rates and inflation are both still elevated.Technical ViewsEURGBPThe latest test of .8869 saw the pair turning lower again. However, with the correction subsequently finding support at the .8719 level, price is now moving higher once more. For now, while price holds above the bullish trend line the focus is on a continuation higher and a break of the .8869 level opening the way for a move back up through last year’s highs.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-ez-service-sector-back-in-growth-while-uk-slumps-further"
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Market Spotlight: Microsoft Ramping Up Its AI Investment

Microsoft Announces 'Third Phase Investment In Open AI Shares in US tech giant Microsoft are trading around 1% higher ahead of the US open today. The move comes on the back of yesterday’s announcement that the company will strengthen its partnership with ChatGPT maker Open AI via a new multibillion dollar investment deal. While the exact figure is yet to be disclosed, there have been reports of a $10 billion sum.  The Microsoft blogost announcing the next stage of its involvement with Open AI, Microsoft outlined plans for additional supercomputer development as well as greater cloud-computing support for Open AI.Microsoft’s desire to become heavily involved with this latest cutting edge technology represents a big opportunity for investors. With AI now seen as one of the fastest growth areas in tech, Microsoft’s early backing of a Open AI could pay big dividends down the line especially judging by the popularity of ChatGPT which is seeing massive cross-sector application.Earnings Due Today Looking ahead today, Microsoft is due to report Q4 earnings with Wall Street looking for EPS of $2.29 on revenues of $52.99 billion. While there are some warnings that the company might see a smaller profit margin, results in this area should keep the stock well bid especially on the back of this news.Technical ViewsMicrosoftFollowing the latest test of the 218.95 level, the stock has since turned higher again and is now testing the 244.95 region. This is a key pivot for price, marking the midway point of the range between current lows and the 265.55 level. If price can break above here, focus turns to a test of the bearish trend line and the 265.55 level above.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-microsoft-ramping-up-its-ai-investment"
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Daily Market Outlook, January 24, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 24, 2023 Tech Rally on Wall Street Sees Nikkei Back Above 27KThe Nikkei (the only major Asian market open during the lunar holiday week) managed to shake off a third successive monthly decline in manufacturing data to reclaim the pivotal 27k level, as markets were buoyed by another impressive led Tech rally, Tesla gaining nearly 8% on the day, as the Tech heavy Nasdaq100 was up over 2% trading above 11800. European bourses are set to follow suit with futures suggesting a positive open.In the UK data out this morning confirmed a year over year doubling in the public purse borrowing rising to £26.6Bln in December, however, it is thought that the 12 month deficit may still come in below forecasts, January;s data will be a key input to the final outcome as the January figure will contain HMRC tax revenues for the year. Datawise focus is on PMI releases, with both the manufacturing services data expected to remain in contractionary territory, printing below the pivotal 50 level, there is a chance that the services data may offer some modest growth driven by seasonal and world cup spending. The FTSE is currently the only European market currently trading in the red, driven by AstraZeneca and Glencore declines. In the Eurozone PMI data is also expected to see meagre gains on the services side of the ledger vehicle manufacturing is thought to lag remaining sub 50 suggesting contraction in the sector continues, however, regional data just released by France saw a surprise gain in the manufacturing sector, printing 50.6. ECB Chief Lagarde is due to speak again today. With the BoE and FOMC moving into their respective black out periods, given the proximity of their policy announcements) Lagarde is expected to once again reiterate her hawkish stance.The US data slate is also dominated by PMI data due later today, with both readings believed to remain in contractionary territory, key for US investors will be whether next weeks ISM data confirms the PMI prints as the ISM releases tend to be tracked more closely by US investorsMarkets-wise, in the UK BHP have signed a partnership deal with Munduro Capital to assess the feasibility of copper mining in Serbia. The National Grid are offering discounts to customers who agree to use less electricity during peak consumption hours as a means to avoid black out periods during excessive consumption periods. After the close of US trading today tech stalwart Microsoft is set to announce earnings, given the recent rise in MSFT share price and the broader gains in the tech sector, investors will be looking for decent forward guidance to maintain the rally, any meaningful downgrades on outlook would see investors paring risk appetite ahead of Tesla earnings due tomorrow. Overnight News of NoteAsian Shares Climb In The Wake Of Tech-Stock Fuelled GainsBank Of Japan Eases Bond Market Strains With Loans To BanksJapan's Factory Activity Extends Declines For Third Straight MonthAustralian Business Conditions Fall For A Third Straight MonthPresident Biden Set To Hammer GOP National Sales TaxECB Policymakers Spar On Rate Outlook Beyond Feb HikeDollar In Doldrums As Euro Near 9-Month Peak, Yen BouncesOil Steadies As Traders Look To China To Deliver Demand BoostUS Weighs Cancellation Of Next SPR Sale – Energy IntelAsian Shares Climb In The Wake Of Tech-Stock Fuelled GainsDOJ Poised To Sue Google Over Digital Ad Market DominanceEU Lawmakers To Vote On Tighter Crypto, ESG Rules For Banks(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST(BOLD expiries with  a value of a Billion+more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)USDJPY 131.00AUDUSD 0.7000USDCAD 1.3450Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 3995Primary support is 3869Primary objective is 4055Below 3840 opens 380020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0835Primary support  is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.10Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2320Primary support  is 1.2250Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2240  opens 1.218520 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7060Primary resistance is .7060Primary objective is .6939Above .7060 opens .711020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22300Primary support 21600Primary objective is 23700Below 21500 opens 2070020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-24-2023"
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When will UK inflation fall back to the BoE’s target?

Inflation has started to slow, but it could remain high for some time as underlying pressures build

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/605655/when-will-uk-inflation-fall
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How to invest in ChatGPT and other AI tech changing the world

Technology, like ChatGPT, is changing the way we live and work, and this new tool could have a huge impact on the tech industry says Dominic Frisby.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/tech-stocks/605621/how-to-invest-in-the-scary-good-tech-changing-the
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Bitcoin Might Reach New Heights Soon

Bitcoin broke the level of 22500. Currently, it remains flat before the next jump. So far, this asset is likely to hit the level of 25000. Next, Bitcoin might pull back from this level and undergo a large-scale correction. The asset could potentially gain the required support at the level of 21000 and jump. The price of Bitcoin might also rise from the current point, considering the formation of a flag or a pennant signifying the continuation of the current trend. So, let’s observe what will happen next.The currency pair EUR/USD has pulled back from the broken level of 1.0785. The asset might face resistance at the level of 1.1100. The price of this currency pair might jump at the beginning of next week.American index S&P 500 has pulled from the broken level of 3920 and formed an engulfing at the end of the trading week. This signifies a potential price growth. Once the price of the index approaches the downtrend, it might either slow down a bit or reverse and pull back down. Only time will tell what is about to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-might-reach-new-heights-soon"
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Market Spotlight: EUR Rallies on Hawkish ECB Comments

Knot Reaffirms Hawkish ECB OutlookEUR has started the week on a strong footing following further hawkish ECB commentary over the weekend. Dutch ECB member Klaas Knot told reporters over the weekend that he believes the ECB will hike rates by a further .5% at both the upcoming February and March meetings. Furthermore, Knot warned that the bank would not be done following these adjustments and cautioned markets to expect more action in both May and June.Looking beyond that, Knot said that it was hard to tell if the ECB would be done tightening by summer but suggested that of course there would come a time when the inflation outlook was more balanced. In that scenario, Knot suggested the bank could then step tightening back a level though said that the ECB is still far away from that point currently.Knot’s comments come fresh on the back of last week’s comments from ECB chief Lagarde. Lagarde warned that inflation was still way too high in the eurozone, reaffirming the need for the ECB to keep pushing ahead with rates until CPI was back at its 2% target.ECB Not Pivoting Anytime SoonThese recent ECB comments suggest a clear effort on behalf of the bank to push back against any speculation that it might be close to pivoting on rates. With the Fed mid-pivot and other central banks pivoting or close to pivoting, the ECB has reaffirmed its view here, making the lines around policy divergence between itself and other central banks quite clear. In light of this, EUR looks likely to stay well supported near-term particularly against USD and JPY.Technical ViewsEURUSDThe rally in EURUSD has seen the market pushing higher within a clear bull channel off last year’s lows. Price is currently testing above the 1.0785 level and, while it holds above here, the focus is on a further push higher towards the 1.1126 level next. However, we are seeing bearish divergence in momentum studies and should price slip back below the level, focus will turn to the channel support and 1.0346 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-eur-rallies-on-hawkish-ecb-comments"
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Market Spotlight: AZN Shares At Risk of Deeper Drop

AZN Stock Under Pressure Shares in UK-headquartered AstraZeneca are back under heavy selling pressure on Monday as the stock extends recent losses. Now trading down by almost 7% from the 2023 highs, the company recently outlined plans to buy US bio-tech Firm Cin Cor for $1.8 billion. However, it seems that stockholders are not overly enthusiastic about the deal given the current price action we’re seeing.Sales DisappointmentsOne reason for this, perhaps, is that the company has been suffering from weaker earnings growth when compared with the rest of the industry. The current decline is suggesting there is some caution about such a big outlay of capital at the start of the New Year. The stock is also likely suffering from the impact of recent sales disappointments. AstraZeneca announced last week that it was pulling its Lumoxiti (treatment for rare blood cancer) from US markets on the back of poor sales results. This comes a few years after the drug was also pulled in Europe, again due to unsatisfactory results.Near-Term Downside RisksWhile The company has seen a solid string of earnings reports since the last negative quarter in Q3 2021, there is perhaps some hesitation with AZN viewed more as a dividend stock than an earnings growth stock. The company saw its value balloon over the early part of the pandemic as profits linked to its covid vaccine helped drive valuations higher. However, as more companies brought their vaccines to market these profits have been eroded. While the stock remains well above pre-pandemic levels for now, risks of a deeper correction are growing with the upcoming earnings reportTechnical ViewsAZNThe stock has been moving with a shallow bullish channel over the last 9 months. However, we’ve seen strong bearish divergence on each fresh peak and with price having now reversed back under the 11538 level there is risk of a deeper run down towards the bottom of the channel, ahead of deeper support at the 9534 area.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-azn-shares-at-risk-of-deeper-drop"
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Precious Metals Monday 23-01-2023

Metals Market Reflects Uncertainty Ahead of Fed The metals market has certainly had an interesting start to the year. While golds futures have been broadly higher, breaking out to fresh YTD highs in consecutive weeks, price action in silver has been much more laboured. With gold prices starting the new week with a more offered tone, we are now looking at the prospect of a correction lower near-term. This is more interesting given the subdued action we’re seeing in US Dollar. In short, current price action reflects a great deal of uncertainty and indecision in the market ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting next week.Recently, there has been a growing view that the Fed will look to pivot further when it meets next week, opting for a smaller .25% hike (down from December’s .50% hike). If seen, this would certainly send USD lower near-term, creating room for metals prices to advance higher. However, if the Fed surprises markets and sticks with a further .5% hike, this would likely be firmly bullish for USD near-term, fuelling an unwinding of short positions which would see metals prices moving quickly lower once more.With the Fed now in its pre-meeting blackout period and with Chinese markets offline all week for the holiday there, focus will likely turn to incoming economic data. A slew of global PMIs this week as well as US advanced GDP and core PCE will be the headline readings to watch. Additionally, developments within the US earnings backdrop will be closely watched. Any fresh concern around recession risks will likely lend themselves to increased safe-haven support for metals.Technical ViewsGoldThe rally in gold prices has become a little more laboured recently though, for now, the focus remains on further upside. Price is currently holding above the recently broken 1916.34 level and, while above here, the focus is on a further push higher towards 1973.51 next. Worth noting we are seeing some bearish divergence on momentum studies, however. If price moves back under the current level, 1871.04 is the next support to note.SilverThe price action we’ve seen in silver recently has been very frustrating for bulls and bears alike. Price is essentially caught in a choppy range, oscillating around the 24.0073 level. While still within the bull channel off last year’s lows, focus remains on a further push higher and an eventual move up to the 26.0974 level next. However, should we slip lower from here 22.3205 is the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/precious-metals-monday-23-01-2023"
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The Year of the Rabbit: is it time to invest in China?

This weekend marks the Chinese New Year - but what will the Year of the Rabbit bring to investors looking to invest in China after a turbulent 2022?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/605654/invest-in-china
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USD remains range-bound on dovish Fed rate hike outlook

Asset markets are somewhat sluggish and reluctant to recover on Friday, following Thursday’s drop, which saw S&P 500 breaking through 3900 points. Dollar was slightly bid on the back of growing risk-off, however, during this week the DXY appears to remain in equilibrium in the range of 102-102.50:Despite a slew of negative updates on the US economy for December (ISM indices, retail sales, industrial orders, etc.), the labor market continues to shine bright. Thursday data on unemployment claims showed that the number of applications not only did not increase, but even decreased, and significantly: initial claims from 205 to 194K, continuing claims fell to 1647K against the forecast of 1660K. Another positive aspect of yesterday's eco data was the pace of housing construction: housing starts declined in December, but were higher than estimates - 1.382 million against the forecast of 1.359 million.On the side of US energy consumption, which is obviously correlated with the business cycle of the economy, there is a worrisome moment: both crude oil and gasoline inventories have been growing at a high pace for more than a week in a row. EIA data released on Thursday showed that oil inventories jumped 8.5 million barrels, indicating a sharp decline in oil refining, while gasoline inventories jumped 3.4 million barrels against a forecast of 2.5 million:The ECB reacted sensibly this week to reports that a rate hike of just 25 basis points was being considered. Christine Lagarde repeated her recent hawkish rhetoric yesterday, and the minutes of the December meeting all but confirmed the growing pressure from hawks on the governing board. The details of the "deal" with a more moderate short-term outlook were quite clear: a conservative 50bp hike in December was acceptable only with a preliminary commitment of two increases of 50 bp in February and March. This is good news for the euro, and as long as the data from the US remains weak, EUR/USD should benefit from a rather favorable rate differential. A test of 1.0900/1.0950 is expected next week but things are pretty quiet today as the eurozone calendar is empty and Christine Lagarde shouldn't surprise with anything new as she speaks again in Davos. The UK retail sales data for December was released this morning and was rather disappointing. The numbers are down by about 1% m/m and follow another drop in consumer confidence, according to data released earlier this morning. GDP in the fourth quarter is unlikely to change. But continued weakness in consumption and some expected decline in other areas (possibly in construction/manufacturing) means GDP in the first quarter is likely to fall by more than 0.5%.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usd-remains-range-bound-on-dovish-fed-rate-hike-outlook"
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Croatia without the crowds

Dubrovnik and Split still have plenty of charm in the low season

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/spending-it/travel-and-holidays/605653/croatia-without-the-crowds
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Daily Market Outlook, January 20, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 20, 2023 Chinese Market Head Into Lunar New Year Near Bull Market TerritoryAsian equities close out the week on a firm footing as Chinese investors wind down ahead of  next week’s lunar new year holiday. Western markets remained subdued as FOMC vice chair Brainard, deemed to be in the dovish camp, made remarks that were more aligned with the ‘higher for longer’ view on US interest rates . European Central Bank Chief Lagarde appearing at the World Economic forum in Davos also struck a hawkish tone in her speech, stating that  inflation remains “way too high”, Lagrade speaks again today and is likely to reiterate her hawkish stance. UK data out this morning  confirmed concerns regarding the UK consumer as January GfK consumer confidence dropped  to -45 from -42 in December, although still at depressed levels this print remains above the record lows seen in September -49, however, sentiment with respect to UK personal finances for the year ahead showed some signs of improvement, retailers will take little solace from this given December retail sales dropped  for a second consecutive month, declining 1.0%, led by lower non-food sales while grocery sales were modestly weaker. The ONS highlighted that  consumers were cutting back due to increased prices and ongoing affordability concerns linked to the cost of living crisis.In the Eurozone, German producer price inflation retreated for a third month in a row  to print  21.6% in December from 28.2% in November. US existing home sales data due later today, is expected to show another decline as the restrictive rate environment continues to weigh on home buyers' appetite, if the data confirms another drop, this would mark the eleventh consecutive decline in home sales stateside . Ahead of next week’s blackout period for Fed officials, the Fed’s Harker and Waller are both on deck today, Harker has recently suggested he would be more inclined to back a 25bps rate move at the next meeting, markets will look for additional colour on his views today.Markets-wise, investors are nursing losses heading into the weekend, US markets have been on the back foot with the benchmark SP500 testing pivotal support at the 3900 level, however, European markets are clinging to modest gains at the open of trade. Commodities remain front and centre with WTICrude reclining the $80 handle to trade back above $81 per barrel, Gold also regained its shine, as  the yellow metal remained supported above 1900  bulls keep their sights on a test 1950, the Dollar continues to rotate around the 102 mark, as the Euro continues to cling to 1.08  buoyed by Lagarde’s hawkish rhetoric.Overnight News of NoteUS Stock Futures Tick Up After Dow Goes Negative For The YearAsian Stocks Edge Up, Dollar Sags As Markets Mulls Fed RisksOil Heads For Second Weekly Rise As China Outlook BrightensGold Set For Fifth Straight Weekly Rise On Fed Slowdown BetsTop Fed Officials Make Case For High Rates To Cool InflationPoll: Fed To Deliver Two 25Bp Hikes, Followed By Long PauseFed To Face Tough Choice Longer Debt Ceiling Impasse StaysUS Firms Renew Pleas For Biden To End Trump’s China TariffsChina Keeps Benchmark Lending Rates Steady In Fifth MonthChina Inject Record Amount Of Cash This Week Pre-HolidaysJapan Inflation Hits 4% As BoJ Pivot Speculation SmoulderingEU Consider More Russia Sanctions Despite Difficult DebatesUK Chancellor Hunt Warns Not To Expect Tax Cuts In BudgetUK GfK Consumer Confidence Fall Back To Near 50-Year LowCrypto Lender Genesis Files For Bankruptcy As Crisis SpreadsNetflix Co-Founder Steps Down As CEO But Adds Subscribers(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST(BOLD expiries with  a value of a Billion+more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)EURUSD 1.0650 1.0800 1.1000GBPUSD 1.20AUDUSD 0.6900Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3869 Primary support is 3869Primary objective is 4055Below 3840 opens 380020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0735Primary support  is 1.0735Primary objective is 1.09Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2250Primary support  is 1.2250Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2240  opens 1.218520 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 132.30Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6950Primary resistance is .6950Primary objective is .6790Above .7025 opens .711020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 20000Primary support 20000Primary objective is 22000Below 19600 opens 1900020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-20-2023"
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Market Spotlight: BTC Rally Stalls Amidst Further Bankruptcy News in the Sector

Genesis Files for BankruptcyThe crypto world has been hit by further bad news this week as crypto-lender Genesis Global Capital files for bankruptcy. The lender, owned by Digital Currency Group, reportedly froze customer accounts in mid-November on the back of FTX Capital collapsing in a bid to prevent a mass-withdrawal. The collapse of FTX fuelled a wave of concern that similar companies might go under.Legal DisputeIn the bankruptcy claim filed with the Southern District of New York, Genesis reported that it had assets between $1 billion and $10 billion with more than 100,000 creditors. The news comes while Genesis is already engaged in a legal wrangle with Gemini Trust Co. The group, owned by the Winklevoss twins, had been jointly engaged on a crypto project called Earn, with Genesis. Gemini claims Genesis owes around $900 billion to around 340,000 investors. Both groups were recently charged by the SEC with illegally selling securities through the Earn program.BTC Recovering in 2023Crypto sentiment has been improving recently with BTC up almost 50% from last year’s lows. However, the rally has stalled for now amidst the broader downturn in risk appetite we’ve seen on the back of dismal US retail sales for December. Looking ahead, BTC should continue to gain if fresh USD weakness materialises, perhaps in response to a smaller hike at the February FOMC.Technical ViewsBTCThe rally in BTC has seen the market breaking above the bearish trend line and above several key resistance levels. For now, the rally has stalled though price remains atop the 20575 level. While price holds above here, the focus is on a continued push higher with 22600 the next upside level to note, ahead of the bigger target at 24930.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-btc-rally-stalls-amidst-further-bankruptcy-news-in-the-sector"
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FOMO Friday: DAX On The Rocks

Dax Turns Down Following Recent GainsLooking across markets, aside from the volatility we had around the BOJ meeting, it’s been a much quieter week. The calm before the storm perhaps, as we approach the upcoming February FOMC meeting. However, there have still been some noteworthy moves and chatting with traders ahead of the weekend, it seems the move capturing the most attention is the more than 2% reversal in the DAX which, prior to falling in the back half of this week, had been on a solid rally across early 2023, rallying almost 10%. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Global Recession FearsWe saw some initial weakness on Wednesday as asset markets reacted to news of much-weaker-than forecast US data for December (retail sales & PPI). The data put recession fears back into focus, sending stock prices falling across the board. While losses were more limited in Europe than in the US, the deeper fall was to come on Thursday.Hawkish ECB CommentsECB’s Lagarde upset the apple cart on Thursday as she warned that inflation remains ‘way too high’. Lagarde advised that the ECB would ‘stay the course’ on rates and keep going until CPI was comfortably back in the bank’s 2% target zone. With energy prices tanking over recent months and better data out of the eurozone recently, traders were beginning to mull the idea of a slower pace of tightening, in line with what we’ve seen from the Fed. However, Lagarde’s comments were seen effectively pouring cold water on this notion, sending the DAX heavily lower yesterday.Upside RisksLooking ahead, the outlook for the DAX remains broadly favourable. On the back of the strong gains we’ve seen only the past two weeks, the current pull-back should prove to be a correction. While Lagarde’s comments provide headwinds for now, the idea of a pivot is likely to gain in traction if we see inflation beginning to cool faster-than-expected in coming months. Additionally, as the economic picture in the eurozone improves, this too should continue to support stock sentiment.Technical ViewsDAXThe rally in the DAX saw the index trading up to a test of the 15163.41 level. Price has stalled there for now. However, the key area to note is the 14703.98 area, where we also have the rising trend line off last year’s lows. While this level holds the focus is on a further push higher an dan eventual breakout to 15642.76.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-dax-on-the-rocks"
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Signs of a Risk-Off in Risk Asset Markets Curb Optimism in EURUSD

The minutes of the December policy meeting of the ECB released today reinforced the hawkish policy stance that the ECB tried to communicate during and after the meeting: the Bank is far from completing the tightening cycle and more rate hikes are necessary.The key takeaways of the December minutes were that “the direction of monetary policy must be resolutely tightened and that the current configuration of interest rates and expectations incorporated in asset prices has not been sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the target level in a timely manner.” Several ECB members have called for a 75bp rate hike (instead of the agreed 50 bp), and also opted for a fast pace of reinvestment of matured bonds under the APP.Ahead of the forthcoming ECB meetings, it is becoming clear that the central bank intends to deliver more rate hikes. Basically, the message creates a benign environment for more Euro gains against its peers, including USD.It should be understood though that the softer inflation that we’ve seen recently in the euro area has little to do with the removal of the ECB stimulus. The spike in inflation was mainly the aftermath of higher energy prices, and the recent drop correlates with lower energy prices, especially gas prices:Therefore, when predicting what the ECB will do next, it makes sense to analyze not what the ECB should do, but what the bank says it will do. Hawkishness is no longer a characteristic of just a few members of the ECB. It has become mainstream.Another 50bp rate hike at the February meeting two weeks later is apparently priced in, and another 50 bp rate hike at the March meeting even looks very likely. As long as core inflation remains consistently high and core inflation forecasts remain above 2%, the ECB will continue to raise rates. To some extent, we are seeing a mirror image of the ECB to 2019. At the time, the Bank was clearly easing and pursuing disinflation by all means possible, even though the root causes of disinflation lay outside the ECB's purview. Now the ECB has a clear desire to tighten and is chasing inflation, which may also have its root cause in something the ECB can't handle. However, it looks like the current generation of ECB policymakers will only let them go when they are fully convinced that inflation is no longer a problem. As a result, a modest improvement in growth prospects in the euro area, as well as the abundant fiscal stimulus, gave the Bank even more reason to continue its hawkish mission. With all this in mind, the ECB is unlikely to cut interest rates again. Current market expectations for ECB rate cuts in 2024 are premature. If anything, these expectations, reflected in the cut in long-term interest rates, are an additional argument for the ECB to remain hawkish. The ECB's aggressiveness in December was also the result of the central bank’s view that market pricing lagged the pace of actual policy tightening. Today's comments by Christine Lagarde and Klaas Noth once again illustrate the ECB's determination to go all the way.EURUSD continues to consolidate near 1.08 with no obvious attempts to test the levels below. Market participants are trying to assess the risk of a slowdown in the Fed's tightening to 25 bp February, as well as softening the rhetoric regarding inflation. US stocks fell, reacting to the slew of weak eco updates on the US economy. The weakness of the dollar now depends on two factors: the market's assessment that weakening activity in the US will infect other economies (which will increase demand for the dollar as a defensive asset) and the Fed's reaction to a series of soft data for December. If the Fed begins to worry about a recession and changes the policy vector to a dovish one, we can expect a rebound in risk asset markets and a continuation of the EURUSD rally. Moderately hawkish comments may allow the dollar to bounce and cause a correction in EURUSD to 1.07 - 1.0650:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/signs-of-a-risk-off-in-risk-asset-markets-curb-optimism-in-eurusd"
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Best debit and credit cards to use while travelling

If you’re going on holiday or travel regularly, it’s worth knowing what the best possible card is to avoid hefty fees while abroad

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/403573/best-debit-and-credit-cards-for-travelling-abroad
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Council tax increases 2023 – how much more will you pay?

Your council tax bill will go up in April - we reveal the councils taht have confirmed what this year’s increase will be

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/tax/605652/council-tax-increases
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Bitcoin is on the Rise: What’s Next?

Bitcoin broke the psychological level of 20000, touching the resistance at the level of 210000. Now, the price of Bitcoin is getting ready for the pullback. Bitcoin might potentially gain the required support at the level of 20000, pull from it, and jump. So, let’s observe what will happen next.Silver has approached the resistance at the level of 24.75 for the second time in a row but pulled back from this level and dropped. The asset might test the supporting level of 22.30 and jump anytime soon.Brent oil has touched the weekly downtrend denoted by the bold red line on the chart as well as the broken local uptrend. Currently, the price of oil is trying to pull from the crossing point of these trendlines and drop to the supporting level of 77.82.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-is-on-the-rise-what-s-next"
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Dovish surprise in US retail sales leaves little to salvage dollar bulls

The Bank of Japan dismissed market rumors about further adjustments in the yield curve control and left the policy unchanged today, disappointing recent yen buyers. The  Bloomberg report released yesterday about the ECB plans to execute more caution in the rest of the tightening cycle caused brief market embarrassment sending EURUSD to 1.08 and below, but later, as expected, bearish mood proved to be transitory. The dollar index, following a week of consolidation, traded below 102 points on signals of the growing slack in the US economy.Dollar sentiment began to deteriorate yesterday after release of the Empire State manufacturing index. The headline reading plunged to -32.9 points vs. -9 points forecast, indicating a significant decline in business activity in the sector. The auction of 3- and 6-month Treasuries showed strong demand yesterday, indicating investors' preference to buy more fixed income in anticipation of weakening activity in the US, which should obviously be reflected in softer inflation figures.The greenback buyers who bet on a rebound after consolidation faced strong headwinds after the release of the key for this week US eco reports. The US retail sales report and PPI released today were noticeably worse than expected:Basically, dovish surprise in key consumption component and business activity prompted quick revision of the US inflation forecast towards a faster decline and less hawkish Fed in 2023. The market reaction was clear: sell the dollar and bid stocks and bonds. As mentioned earlier, the dollar index fell below 102 points, while the US futures posted a moderate increase within 0.5%. A significant reaction was observed in Treasuries - the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 3.45%, and two-year - to 4.08%. EURUSD broke through 1.0850 and the breakout of 1.09 is next, followed by a move towards 1.10, where the main resistance is expected:Yesterday was a day of controversial headlines for the euro. In a lengthy interview with the Financial Times, Chief Economist Philip Lane provided detailed arguments in support of the ECB's recent hawkish rhetoric. Later in the day, however, a Bloomberg report quoted some ECB officials as saying that members of the Governing Council were actually considering a slower tightening (25bps). On this news, EUR/USD fell below 1.08, but today's data on the US formed the counterbalance and the pair quickly recovered.This morning data on the consumer price index for December were published in the UK, which generally coincided with the consensus forecasts. Headline inflation fell from 10.7% to 10.5%, while core inflation remained at 6.3%. The peak appears to be behind us and the headline inflation in the UK could return to 6% in the summer and 3.5-4% by the end of the year.It is important to note that the rise in prices for core services accelerated from 6.4% to 6.8%, which the Bank of England should especially take into account, and when added to yesterday's wage data, the balance of risks should shift upward to a possible 50 bp tightening in February.The EUR/GBP pair returned to pre-Christmas levels below 0.8800 thanks to some peculiar lagging of the euro and support of the pound. As discussed above, ECB-related euro weakness may not last long and EUR/GBP may struggle to trade sustainably below 0.8800 for now, also given the absence of strong bullish forces in the pound.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dovish-surprise-in-us-retail-sales-leaves-little-to-salvage-dollar-bulls"
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ONS: House prices up 10.3% in November

Official data shows house prices went up in November 2022, but a slowdown is still on thee cards

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605651/house-prices-rise-ons
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UK inflation slows to 10.5%

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the decrease was largely due to falling fuel prices

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/inflation/605650/uk-inflation-falls-for-the-second-consecutive-month
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Gold at $5,700? I like the sound of that

Dominic Frisby explains why the gold price could be set up for a major rally as sentiment towards the yellow metal shifts.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/gold/605649/gold-price-5700
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Market Spotlight: Low Bar Set for Today's US PPI & Retail Sales

Key US Data Up NextToday sees a double whammy for US data with both December PPI and Retail Sales due. On the back of weaker-than-forecast US inflation, today’s data is drawing more attention-than-usual. USD has been in decline since those Dec CPI figures were released with traders now anticipating a further pivot from the Fed when it meets in a fortnight’s time. The clear winner from this recent shift in Fed expectations has been the equities sector with stock indices broadly higher as traders look towards a smaller Fed hike in Feb. With this in mind, today’s data will be closely watched by traders and has the potential to drive meaningful action in both USD and equities alike.Low Expectations for Today’s DataTypically, better-than-forecast PPI and Retail Sales would help lift USD given PPI’s importance for gauging inflationary trends and Retail Sales’ importance for calculating GDP. With both readings expected to have weakened further on the prior month, the bar is set quite low today for an upside surprise. However, whether such results would fuel a USD rally is a little less certain.Trading ScenariosThe main story currently is the drop in inflation and so it would likely take a large upside shock today to derail expectations for a smaller Fed hike next month. Similarly, if PPI is confirmed to have weakened further, especially if below forecasts, this would likely see USD lower on the back of the release with stocks rallying.Technical ViewsNASDAQThe rally in the Nasdaq so far this year has seen price moving sharply higher off the 10700.41 lows. Price has now broken back into the bull channel off last year’s lows and is currently testing the 11540.72 level. This is a key level, with the long-term bear trend line sitting just above. If bulls can break above here, focus will be on a move up towards 12220.22 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-low-bar-set-for-today-s-us-ppi-and-retail-sales"
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Market Spotlight: GS Shares Plunge As Q4 Results Worst in Decade

GS Shares Tank on Q4 ResultsShares in Goldman Sachs are on the backfoot today following heavy losses yesterday amidst a weaker-than-expected set of Q4 earnings. On the back of solid results from JPM and Citi last week, investors were hoping for a similar display from Goldman. However, with EPS coming in at $3.32 vs $5.56 expected on revenues of $10.59 billion vs $10.75 billion expected, shares were seen shedding 6% over the session and are back under pressure ahead of the open today.Worst in Decade The bank’s Q4 results transpired to be its worst quarterly performance in over a decade with profits seen falling by two-thirds on the prior year. Notably, expenses were seen higher by 11% which, along with the tumble in overall revenues, partially explains the dismal performance. Looking ahead, the recent layoffs at Goldman look likely to be repeated as the company seeks to trim back costs. More worrying still is the almost $1billion bad-loans provision the company built up, compared with under $400 million last year. The bank cited “early signs of consumer credit deterioration” as the driver behind this move.Looking at the breakdown of the bank’s businesses; investment banking saw revenues drop by a massive 48% while asset and wealth management revenues fell by 27%. Looking ahead, Goldman CEO David Solomon said the bank will focus on “realizing the benefits of our strategic realignment which will strengthen our core businesses, scale our growth platforms and improve efficiency.”Technical ViewsGSThe reversal from earlier highs in the week now risks creating a lower peak against the November 2022 highs. If price breaks through the rising trend line and the recent 2023 lows, this will open the way for a deeper run down towards the 324.85 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-gs-shares-plunge-as-q4-results-worst-in-decade"
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JPY Sinks As BOJ Sticks To Bond Purchases

BOJ Holds SteadyTraders were treated to some late New Year fireworks overnight as the Japanese Yen collapsed across the board in reaction to the latest BOJ meeting. Ahead of the January monetary policy meeting, traders had been increasingly expectant that the BOJ would signal a shift in policy. With the bank having recently lifted the upper limit on its yield curve control target band, many took this as a pre-cursor to a more concrete move to be announced at the meeting. Consequently, JGB yields were seen pushed above that upper limit for three consecutive days into the meeting.Implied Volatility Hit Record HighsIt’s fair to say that expectations were split however. Implied volatility in the options market ahead of the event hit its highest level in JPY since November 2008 (GFC).  In terms of trading ranges, options traders were broadly favouring a 2% move in either direction. Ultimately, JPY bulls were left empty handed as the BOJ stuck to its ultra-loose easing policy.Bond Purchases to ContinueWhile refraining from any hawkish policy shifts, the BOJ surprised by announcing that it will press ahead with large-scale bond purchases and will now be more flexible around duration e.g, running the operation for longer. Additionally, the BOJ was seen unveiling a new tool as it adjusted rules around its funds-supply market operation meaning it can now be used to help suppress yields, bolstering its yield-curve control operations.Traders had been anticipating that BOJ governor Kuroda might look to lay the groundwork for a shift away from the bank’s ultra-loose policy ahead of his departure in April. However, on the back of this announcement, this now looks highly unlikely. With inflation now running at a 40-year high, however, the case for tightening is growing and critics warn that continued easing will only make the situation worse in Japan.Market ReactionJPY was seen lower across the board on Wednesday. Losing almost 3% against USD, GBP and EUR. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks roared back into action with the Nikkei surging higher by almost 3% also. The key now will be to see whether the current reaction reverses or whether JPY settles into trading lower again. If USD data today sees risk assets trading higher into the end of the week, this may well keep JPY pressured lower for now on weaker safe-haven demand.Technical ViewsUSDJPYThe rally off the 126.93 lows has stalled for now into a retest of the broken 131.36 level and the bear channel top. Price has been moving steadily lower within this bear channel and while the structure holds, the focus is on a further move lower. A break of 131.36, however, opens the way for a bigger push back towards 139.33.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/jpy-sinks-as-boj-sticks-to-bond-purchases"
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