Copper Price Forecast: Bull Case to Prevail on Robust Supply and Demand Drivers

Copper is on track to make a sixth consecutive monthly gain as prices inch towards its all-time high. The global backdrop remains supportive despite a short-term pause in the rally.

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/03/03/Copper-Price-Forecast-Bull-Case-to-Prevail-on-Robust-Supply-and-Demand-Drivers.html
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How to Trade After a News Release

Looking to trade post release? Read on for more on approaching volatile conditions after news events.

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/02/24/trading-after-a-news-release.html
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AUD/USD Eyes February High After Australian Q4 GDP Beat

The AUD/USD pair climbed towards February peaks after Australian Q4 GDP data beat expectations. Growth declined 1.1% (YoY) while rising 3.1% (QoQ) versus -1.9% and 2.5% estimated respectively.

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/03/03/AUDUSD-Eyes-February-High-After-Australian-Q4-GDP-Beat.html
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USD/CAD May Move Lower on USD Weakness Despite Crude Oil Breakdown

US equities failed to extend gains from Monday as Treasury yields aesed. Elsewhere, the Canadian Dollar gained versus the Greenback despite falling crude oil prices.

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/03/03/USDCAD-May-Move-Lower-on-USD-Weakness-Despite-Crude-Oil-Breakdown.html
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EUR/USD Rate Forecast: Euro Rebound Emerges After Defending 2021 Low

EUR/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the February high (1.2243) as the exchange rate appears to be defending the yearly low (1.1952).

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/daily_dollar/2021/03/02/EURUSD-Rate-Forecast-Euro-Rebound-Emerges-After-Defending-2021-Low.html
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What Does a Forex Spread Tell Traders?

Improve your knowledge of the spread, which is based on the buy and sell price of a currency pair.

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/02/17/what-does-a-spread-tell-forex-traders.html
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Central Bank Watch: BOC, RBA, & RBNZ Interest Rate Expectations Update

Rising bond yields and appreciating currencies are front-and-center for the commodity currency central banks.

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/central_bank_watch/2021/03/02/central-bank-watch-boc-rba-rbnz-interest-rate-expectations-update-march-3.html
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CAD remains and should remain capped

Canda’s GDP grew 9.6% in Q4 (q/q, saar), better than expected after the 40.6% bounce in Q3 (was 40.5%) that followed 38.5% plunge in Q2. A modest inventory accumulation in Q4 after the huge drawdowns in Q3 added to GDP in Q4. Government consumption, M&E investment and housing investment also made positive contributions. Household spending dipped in Q4. GDP contracted -5.4% in 2020, the largest decline since the series began in 1961. The slip in household spending bodes poorly for Q1, as restrictions likely bit early in the quarter which have left the door open to a small -0.5% decline in Q1 GDP. However, we see activity rebounding 6.5% Q2, while the recovery extends in the second half amid a simulative mix of rising vaccination rates, accommodative central bank policy and ongoing support from government stimulus. The separate December GDP tally edged up 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.8% jump (was 0.7%) in November.

Canadian Dollar as a commodity currency is getting stronger once again despite the Oil near term weakness. USDCAD edged higher following the better than forecast Q4 Canadian GDP, though lighter than expected December GDP data. The pair dipped to 1.2630 from 1.2673 highs overnight, and will now look past the backward looking data, with focus remaining on the risk backdrop, USD direction, and oil prices. Currently risk taking levels are fairly neutral, while the USDIndex remains above Monday’s three-plus week highs. USOIL is above earlier lows, but well off Monday’s peak. As a result, the CAD should remain capped for now.

Commodity currencies such as CAD have posted very interesting crosses since past week, with CADCHF breaking 61.8% Fib level since 2019 decline  while CADJPY remains for a 3rd week in a row above 200-week SMA and 2019 highs

CADJPY is retreating this week the losses from the drift on February’s month end flows to 83.50 from 85.10. The RSI is confirming the recent view and is moving upwards above 60 area with further are to be covert in the positive territory, while the MACD line are sloping higher suggesting an increasing positive momentum. In trend indicators, the 20-, 50-day and 200-day SMA are endorsing the broader bullish outlook.

In case that the price remains above the 82.80 support which is set at the 200 -week SMA, the price could move until the multi-year Resistance and the ro9und 85.00. Sharper increases could move the market towards the 88.00-88.20 resistance, registered in September-October 2018 highs and the midpoint of 100% and 161.8% Fib. expansion levels.

Briefly, EURJPY has been in a strong upside tendency since October 2020 and if there is a plunge below the uptrend line, that could switch this view to neutral.

Click here to access the our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /217891/
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Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Bull Run Faces Stern Resistance

The USD/JPY pair has advanced tremendously in the first two months of 2021 but the bull run looks to be showing signs of fatigue

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/03/02/Japanese-Yen-Outlook-USDJPY-Bull-Run-Faces-Stern-Resistance-RS-LiveEdu.html
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AUD/USD Forecast: Rebound from February Low Fueled by Upbeat RBA

AUD/USD extends the rebound from the February low (0.7692) after testing the 50-Day SMA (0.7718) for the second time in 2021.

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/daily_dollar/2021/03/02/AUDUSD-Forecast-Rebound-from-February-Low-Fueled-by-Upbeat-RBA.html
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USOil and upcoming volatility

Later today and tomorrow evening we will have the API and EIA reports, while the day after that, on March 4, eyes will be on OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, known as the OPEC+ meeting.

After touching the 13-month high at $63.67 on February 25, USOil started moving backwards for a few reasons. Let’s review where we are, what happened, and what’s going on.

Last year on April 12, OPEC+ made a historical decision: a 9.7Mbpd production cut, a cut of almost 10% of global supply in order to support oil prices amid the COVID-19 crisis. At that meeting, Russia led the non-OPEC members to agree with the OPEC decision. This plan started on May 1st – even though some members were not 100% committed to it – and continued until the end of July. From August 2020, the production cut was eased to 7.7Mbpd as recovery started in some developed countries. In the first meeting of 2021, many were expecting another rise in production; a rise of just 500 additional barrels a day was agreed, but that was just the beginning of another story.

In 2020, Saudi Arabia and Russia grew much closer on Oil market management, but 2021 seems different. After the 500 barrel per day rise in OPEC+ production, Saudi Arabia voluntarily started a production cut of 1Mbpd for the two months of February and March, which in fact was a sign of contrast to Russia, as they support a production rise. Currently the sharply rising US supply and potential for a weakening in discipline amid the OPEC+ group to maintain supply quotas may offset rising demand.

The OPEC+ group meets this week (tomorrow and Thursday) to decide on April quotas, with Moscow reportedly calling for a relaxation while the Saudis want to maintain output at prevailing levels.  Another clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia on oil production quotas, or the ‘known unknown’ risk, to use epistemological phraseology, of more transmissible SARS-Cov2 coronavirus variants that might prove resistant to current vaccinations, which would threaten a further prolonging of restrictive measures, could also affect the supply and demand of oil.

Additionally on the Covid front, earlier today WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the rise in cases was “disappointing but not surprising,” warning that it was “too early for countries to rely solely on vaccination programs and abandon other measures.” (Investing.com). In the next weeks, we will probably hear more similar messages.

On the other hand, concerns about rises in bond yields in the US and EZ, with over-betting on the latest US stimulus package and its effect will change market sentiment and behavior in the next weeks.

For tomorrow’s EIA report, since the freezing weather in the US has passed, it is normal to expect higher than forecast numbers for inventories. Simultaneously, the Thursday OPEC+ meeting is also widely expected to raise production, but the main question is the level and quotas. Both could be the motivation for more decline, at least in a short period.

USOil – Daily Chart

Technical analysis on the daily chart started to have a correction signal. RSI is moving lower under 50, from OB zone, while market volume is still high, which can be a supportive signal for a downtrend, especially if the price breaks under 20 DMA and then S1 at 59 on today’s close price. For now, S2 is sitting at 58. On the flip side, PP at 61 could open the doors again for R1 at 62 and  R2 at 63.90.

Click here to access the our Economic Calendar

Ahura Chalki

Regional Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /217878/
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Market Positioning Data Show Retail Traders Long Silver and Gold | Webinar

IG client sentiment data show retail traders are overwhelmingly long both silver and gold, and from a contrarian perspective that’s sending bearish signals for both precious metals.

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/03/02/Market-Positioning-Data-Show-Retail-Traders-Long-Silver-and-Gold-Webinar-MSE.html
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Video conferencing darling Zoom presents its results from the year of the pandemic

It’s been almost a year since the beginning of the pandemic. As we mentioned yesterday, the tourism sector has been one of the great victims, while one of the big winners, alongside e-commerce, has been the popular communications and video chat company Zoom Video Communications.

This platform has grown exponentially as many companies transition their employees into a remote work policy in order to avoid contagion, and this platform became popular among the general public as a tool for communication while home.

During yesterday's trading day, the company based in San José in California, announced its results for 2020, highlighting an increase in income of 326%, and improving its prospects for 2021.

Specifically, Zoom reported earnings per share of $1.22 on earnings of $882.49 billion versus expected earnings of $0.7913 per share on earnings of $ 811 billion expected by market consensus, so these results were clearly very positive.

These results were announced after the close of the markets, causing today's pre-opening to anticipate a rise of 8%, adding to the increases of more than 9% of the day yesterday.

Technically speaking, if we look at the daily chart, we can see that since March 1, 2020 the price has experienced a sharp rise from the level close to $ 100 per share where it was at that time until reaching its historical maximum of $588.66 per share on October 19.

From that moment, the price began to correct that has led it to face its 200-session moving average, falling back to the zone of $ 325 per share with a fall of more than $ 260 per share.

Currently, the price is trading close to $410 per share, struggling to recover and maintain its 18 session average. Following these good results, the price could face its medium-term downtrend line in red. Overcoming this level could open the doors to a new bullish rally, although the price should face up to 4 levels of resistance to try to reach its all-time highs.

As long as the price does not break down to its 200-session moving average and the previous low zone represented by the red band, the feeling will continue to be bullish, otherwise, the loss of these levels could cause an even greater correction.

Source: Daily Zoom chart of the Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5 platform from November 4, 2019 to March 2, 2021. Taken on March 2 at 12:00 CET. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

 Price evolution of the last 2 years:

• 2020: 395.77%
• 2019: -6.11%

With the Admiral Markets Trade.MT5 account, you can trade Contracts for Differences (CFDs) of Zoom and more than 3000 stocks! CFDs allow traders to try to profit from the bull and bear markets, as well as the use of leverage. Click on the following banner to open an account today:

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from Trader`s Blog https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/zoom-positive-results
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Natural Gas Outlook: McKinsey Forecasting Long-Term Demand for LNG

Natural Gas is holding just under the key 3.0000 level as technical patterns unfold.

from DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/03/02/Natural-Gas-Outlook-McKinsey-Forecasting-Long-Term-Demand-for-LNG-LiveEdu-WV.html
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