Dollar ascendant as Powell stays dovish course; risk currencies slide

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-ascendant-as-powell-stays-dovish-course-risk-currencies-slide-2438088
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Dollar Rises to Touch 108 Versus Yen for First Time Since July

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US Unemployment Claims tick up

USDJPY, H1

US initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27 following the -98,000 plunge to 736,000 in the February 20 week. That brought the 4-week moving average down to 790,800k from 807,500. Claims not seasonally adjusted rose 31,500 to 748,100 on the week after falling -118,500 to 716,600. Continuing claims declined -124,000 to 4.295 million in the February 20 week after tumbling -101,000 to 4.419 million. The insured unemployment rate dipped to 3.0% from 3.1%.

This leaves over 18 million unemployed citizens on government support and although holding under 800,000 the weekly initial claims count has yet to break below 700,000 since the pandemic hit the US at the end of March last year.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 20 were in Illinois (+6,014), Missouri (+5,624), Tennessee (+3,987), Mississippi (+3,266), and Colorado (+2,842). The largest decreases were in California (-49,138), Ohio (-45,189), New York (-9,117), Idaho (-5,111), and Michigan (-3,942).

The Dollar was little changed following the data, which saw initial jobless claims largely in line with consensus, and continuing claims lower than forecast. Q4 productivity was revised higher, while unit labor costs were revised lower. EURUSD was a few points lower near 1.2030, with USDJPY up slightly over 107.45 and the 7-month high area.

Click here to access the HotForex Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /218632/
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Dollar Is Increasingly Overvalued as Deficit Widens, IIF Says

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-is-increasingly-overvalued-as-deficit-widens-iif-says-2437252
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The market awaits news of Jerome Powell and the OPEC+ meeting

For yet another week, the markets are still awaiting the evolution of the yields on US bonds and the problems it may bring to the markets, as we see falls in US indices namely the falls in the Nasdaq, due to the fact that the increase in the cost of financing hurts technology companies due to their structure and growth profile, affecting corporate profits.

A few days ago, Fed chairman Powell spoke in front of Congress in an attempt to lessen the fears of inflation, and today, the market will once again be waiting for his statements regarding the possible measures taken in response to the yield curve. 

The OPEC+ meeting is another catalyst for today since the market is awaiting the possibility of a decision on whether to reduce production or maintain the current measures until next April.

An increase in oil production could lower the price in the short term, but if it is decided to maintain the current production rate, the price could be supported.

Analysis of the NQ100

The short-term falls on the Nasdaq have confirmed a breakdown of the bullish channel that it had been following in recent months, after breaking its average of 200 (in red) and the bearish cross of its short and medium-term moving averages (black and orange)

In addition, this movement was supported by strong growth in the negative territory of the MACD after the break of the channel, despite the accumulated overselling in the stochastic indicator, which led to the price to look for its 100% fibonacci retracement level of the last bullish momentum in the lower band of the channel.

In recent days, the price has bounced twice at the 100% fibonacci level, but finally, after a last bearish rebound in its 200-session average in the zone coinciding with the 61.8% fibonacci level, the price has achieved breaking down this important level, thus heading to its current support level that previously acted as resistance in the lower red band.

It is very important to see if the price is able to maintain this level of support, as a break down from this could increase the dips to the 161.8% fibonacci level.

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5. H4 chart of the NQ100. Data range: from September 29, 2020 to March 4, 2021. Prepared on March 4, 2021 at 1:00 p.m. CET. Keep in mind that past returns do not guarantee future returns.

Price evolution in the last 5 years:

• 2020: 43.64%
• 2019: 35.23%
• 2018: -3.88%
• 2017: 28.24%
• 2016: 7.50%

With the Admiral Markets Trade.MT5 account, you can trade Contracts for Differences (CFDs) of the NQ100 and more than 3000 stocks! CFDs allow traders to try to profit from the bull and bear markets, as well as the use of leverage. Click on the following banner to open an account today:

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from Trader`s Blog https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/markets-pending-powell-opec
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Exclusive: India merchants almost halt exports to Iran as its rupee reserves fall - officials

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/exclusive-india-merchants-almost-halt-exports-to-iran-as-its-rupee-reserves-fall--officials-2437151
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Markets Fall As Biden's Stimulus Bill Takes Further Blow

As Biden’s campaign to secure backing for his $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package rolls on, the president has been forced to make his first concession so far. Interestingly, the concession was not made with the opposition party but with senior members of the president’s own party.Direct Stimulus Adjustments Made Biden and Senate Democrats hammered out an agreement to limit the scope of the direct stimulus cheques. The $1.4k direct stimulus cheques will now be phased out from higher earning Americans after members of the party took issue with the uniformity of the planned payments. Under the solution agreed upon, US citizens earning more than $80,000 per year and couples earning more than $160k jointly will be blocked from receiving the payment. As a result of the compromise, roughly 9 million fewer households will now receive the payments.Unemployment Allowance Increase KeptDespite the compromise made over direct stimulus, Biden stuck to his guns over the increase in employment benefits. Biden is pushing for unemployment allowances to be increased from $300 to $400 per week and refused to budge on this issue.Minimum Wage Increase Scrapped Biden has already suffered losses on this bill. The intended minimum wage increase to $15 was scrapped last week with the Senate parliamentarian noting that the item could not be included in the package given that the Democrats are employing a special protocol which will allow them to pass the bill via a simple majority. Expectations ahead of the voting on the bill are tense. The Senate is split 50 50 between the two parties and Biden will need to secure the backing of all Senate Democrats as well as some members of the opposition in order to pass his bill.Timing Issues There are also timing issues with the bill. The Senate was due to receive the bill today, however, due to a delay, the bill will now be introduced tomorrow at the earliest. However, even if it looks as though Biden can get the bill through the Senate, Republicans are threatening to cause severe delays to the legislation such as the insistence that the entire bill, all 500 pages, be read out in full instead of just the title along with the offering of amendments.Market Showing Disappointment In all, the package is looking somewhat to different to the initial offering made by Biden. The loss of a minimum wage increase and the 9 million household reduction in those receiving the package will be a big blow to the effect on consumer spending and has been reflected in the lacklustre sentiment seen in risk markets this week.Technical Views SP500The S&P500 is continuing to correct lower this week. Price is currently testing last week’s lows and the rising trend line from 2020 lows which, while intact, keeps the near-term bias bullish. However, should price slip below there, the next levels to note are 3714.50 and 3586 thereafter.Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/markets-fall-as-bidens-stimulus-bill-takes-further-blow
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OPEC’s Extension of Current Output Curbs is Still in Cards Despite Robust Demand Growth

The Greenback uptrend eased on Thursday as bullish momentum developed earlier in the first half of the week failed to find support in key data releases. ADP report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI published on Wednesday fell short of expectations, although bull run in USD indicated expectations of a positive surprise. The number of jobs in the US in February rose by 117K according to ADP, which is less than 177K estimate. ISM index missed estimates as well with employment sub-index indicating a slight cooling in the pace of hiring. Recall that services sector employs more than 70% of the US labor force that’s why ISM employment survey data is a key for understanding pace and direction of US recovery. If Friday payrolls report misses estimate as well, the contribution of eco data in USD strength will greatly diminish, leaving USD vulnerable to concerns of money supply expansion due to upcoming fiscal stimulus.There are signs of USD strength on Thursday thanks to bearish mood in US equity futures and European shares. Given the S&P 500's plans to test 3800 today, USD is likely to extend intraday advance today.Oil market with little effort digested EIA weekly release on commercial oil stockpiles in the United States. In the week ending February 26, crude oil inventories surged 21.5 million barrels - the highest growth in several years. When the market is in a state of contango (oil futures curve is upward sloping), oil prices often drop on the rise in inventories since inventories are hedged by selling more futures what means less demand pressures in the future. However, current situation is somewhat different: inventories rose mainly because refinery utilization dropped to the lowest level in several decades. During the reporting week, refineries were working almost at half-full capacity - utilization fell to 56%, the lowest level since the 1980s:At the same time, oil production in the United States extends recovery - in the reporting week, it increased by 500 thousand bbl/d.An additional point on the report, which neutralized the increase in inventories - a significant decrease in refined petroleum products. Gasoline stocks fell by 13.6 million barrels (forecast -2.3 million), distillates - by 9.7 million barrels. This is partly the result of reduced refinery utilization rates, but the dynamics also speaks of strong fuel demand, which is positive leading indicator for the market.Oil prices were offered additional support after Reuters reported that OPEC will extend current output curbs until April. In case this outcome becomes reality, prices will likely suffer a strong upside shock, as probability of this event is low based on recent rumors and demand data. In my opinion, if OPEC extends current output settings, this should fuel prolonged price recovery, justifying short-term bets on oil growth.Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/opecs-extension-of-current-output-curbs-is-still-in-cards-despite-robust-demand-growth
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USDJPY hits 7-month high

Since January this year, the USDJPY has recorded an increase of about 4% from a low of 102.58 to a 27-week high. As of yesterday’s close, the currency exchange recorded 106.67. Obviously, in 2021, the attractiveness of the US Dollar far exceeds that of the Yen.

There is no doubt that the two governments did not pay attention to epidemic prevention measures in the early stages of the coronavirus outbreak, which led to a surge in infection rates, hospitalization rates and death rates. However, with Biden’s victory in the election to become the new president of the United States, the gap between the two countries has gradually widened. We all know that Biden quickly tightened restrictions and promoted virus testing and vaccination programs after he took office, which greatly reduced the damage of the virus to the US economy. In contrast, Japan’s anti-epidemic process lags far behind the United States. The country only officially launched the first round of vaccinations on February 17, targeting 40,000 medical staff. The data shows that as of March 1 this year, the coverage rate of at least a single dose of vaccination in the United States has reached 22.99%, while  in Japan it is only 0.03%, indicating that the latter will lag far behind the former in the process of economic recovery (provided that the constantly mutating strains will not pose a threat to the effectiveness of existing vaccines).

From an economic perspective, compared with Japan, the US manufacturing and service industries rebounded earlier and performed strongly:

Figure 1: Manufacturing PMI in Japan and the United States. Source: Trading Economics。

Figure 1 shows that although the decline of the US manufacturing PMI during the worst period of the pandemic was more severe than that of Japan, its rebound was far greater than the latter, and it reached the 50-level boundary of economic expansion in July last year. Today, the US manufacturing PMI has moderately raised to 58.6 from the initial value of 58.5, slightly lower than January’s 59.2. On the other hand, the Japanese manufacturing PMI has been below the 50 level (shrinking) since the outbreak of the pandemic last year, and only passed the 50 level in February this year, at 51.4.

Figure 2: Service industry PMI in Japan and the United States. Source: Trading Economics。

In addition, the PMI performance of the US service industry is much stronger than that of Japan. Figure 2 shows that the former reached the 50 level in July last year and recorded 58.9 in February this year; the latter has been in contraction for 13 consecutive months and recorded 46.3 in February this year.

Figure 3: Unemployment rates in the United States and Japan. Source: Trading Economics。

In terms of employment data, the unemployment rate in the United States reached a record high of 14.8% in April last year, while the unemployment rate in Japan peaked at 3.1% in October last year. In any case, the US unemployment rate curve seems to be in an inverted “V” shape, and after peaking, it has more than doubled its decline to the current 6.3%. This may reflect that the US job market has survived its darkest moments and may return to pre-pandemic levels before the end of the year as the vaccination rate rises and more stimulus measures are introduced.

Earlier, ADP data showed that the number of employees in February only recorded an increase of 117,000, which was not as good as the market’s expected increase of 177,000, and an increase of 174,000 from the previous value. The unexpected performance of the data is not as expected and will have a downward impact on the non-agricultural data released on Friday. Later, the market will also focus on employment data including Thursday’s continued jobless claims and the number of layoffs, as well as Friday’s heavy data – non-farm payrolls, unemployment and wages data. Overall, the increase in employment in the United States has not yet recovered the decline of more than 20 million people recorded in April last year, and the unemployment rate is still higher than the pre-pandemic level.

 

Figure 4: Annual GDP growth rates of the United States and Japan. Source: Trading Economics。

In any case, the GDP data of both countries have recorded negative growth. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the United States recorded a contraction of 2.4% year-on-year, while Japan’s contraction was 1.2%. This means that the two countries still need appropriate fiscal and monetary policy support to boost GDP growth by boosting consumption, spending, investment activities and even domestic and foreign trade.

Technical analysis:

The weekly chart shows that after the USDJPY rebounded from the 102 median level and crossed the wedge-shaped trend line, the current trading is at the 106 level. From the perspective of indicators, the MACD double-line upward expansion; the relative strength index (RSI) and the Stochastic index (Stochastics) are respectively at the 50 level and the 80 level.

The daily chart shows that the USDJPY is oscillating higher in the ascending channel. Short-term resistance is seen at the upper trend line and 107.40 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement level). If the breakout is successful, the currency pair may continue its rally and test 108.50. In terms of support, 106.25 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), the 105.50 lower channel trend line and 104.85 are key levels.

Click here to access the our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang

Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /218619/
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The Crude Chronicles - Episode 75

Oil Traders Cut Longs The latest CFTC institutional positioning report shows that WTI traders cut their longs last week by 2,873 contracts taking the total position to 511,840 contracts. This latest reduction in upside exposure came amidst an uptick in the US Dollar as US yields continued to break out to their highest levels in over a year.Correction Finds SupportDespite the reduction in longs and the correction lower we saw last week, crude prices failed to break to the downside. The sell-off found support into the recent lows and price has since bounced with oil now turning higher once again, in line with the recent bull trend. However, for now, the rally has lost a bit of momentum. With the broader risk complex looking a little softer this week, energy traders are awaiting fresh upside catalysts.Middle East Tensions on WatchOne issue that energy traders have been noting with caution this week is the situation in the Middle East. Following the US airstrikes on Syrian targets, US airbases have been targeted in Iraq. With tensions rising, the hostilities are likely to keep oil prices underpinned as we typically see during any flaring up of tensions in the region.EIA Reports Huge Inventories Build In the US, the EIA reported an extremely large build up in crude inventories last week as a result of freak weather storm in Texas. The EIA saw stockpiles rising by over 21 million barrels in the week to February 26th. This was wildly higher than the 1.2 million drawdown estimated. However, despite the huge surplus in headline crude inventories, oil prices took some support from news that gasoline stocks fell 12 million barrels over the week, marking the first drawdown in months.OPEC+ To Rollover Cuts Looking ahead, there is market chatter that OPEC+ will extend its current production cuts when it meets today. There had been speculation that the cartel plus non-OPEC nations led by Russia might look to capitalise on higher oil prices by increasing supply. However, Reuters and Bloomberg have been reporting sources saying that cuts will be rolled over for a final month, which should keep price underpinned in the near term.Technical Views WTIThe recent correction in oil prices found support on approach to the 58.48 level, with price now attempting to get back above the 61.50 mark. While price holds above 58.48, the bis remains geared towards higher prices in the near term. Below there, the trend lien retest and support at 54.82 will be the next zone to watch.Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crude-chronicles-episode-75
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Chart of The Day EURCHF

Chart of The Day EURCHFEURCHF Probable Price Path & Potential Reversal ZoneEUR: Bloomberg quoted reports from insiders of the European Central Bank that the members of the Central Bank did not have much concern about the recent surge in the yield of government bonds, and there is no need to take further actions, including expanding the scale of the emergency bond purchase plan.. The production price index in the Eurozone was flat year-on-year in January, which was lower than market expectations of a 0.1% increaseCHF:The premium of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bill yield relative to the Swiss bond yield over the same period rose to over 170 basis points, a record high in nearly a year; the discount of the German Treasury bond yield relative to the Swiss bond yield increased from nearly one in mid-February. The annual low is 11.7 basis points, narrowing to less than 4 basis points. Switzerland’s February inflation figures were weaker than expected, rising 0.2% month-on-month and down 0.5% year-on-year, lower than expected 0.4% and -0.3%From a technical and trading perspective, Option barriers halt Swiss franc's drop; beware a break, EURCHF 1.10995 EBS 2021 peak and best since July 2019, trading desks suggest high has been defined by defence of 1.1100 barrier, hedging for risk of CHF rally likely large given length time below 1.1100. EURCHF lacks depth, EUR sold in barrier defense matched by stops above, likely to rally quickly if option barrier triggered, size of SNB's intervention suggests there's a huge amount invested in CHF.From a technical perspective range traders will be watching for bearish rejection patterns to develop above 1.1150 allowing a stop run through the pivotal 1.11 handle. 1.1150 represents the yearly projected range resistance and the projected ascending trend channel resistance of an 11 month channel, as this area contains the upside advance look for a minimum three wave corrective pullback to test 1.09 from aboveDisclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/chart-of-the-day-eurchf
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The 2021 UK Budget round-up: where next for the economy and markets?

The 2021 UK Budget round-up: where next for the economy and markets? How has the budget effected the financial market? Check out this article from Capital.com https://capital.com/uk-budget-2021-where-next-for-the-economy-and-markets
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S&P500: Potential Correction Ahead?

The EUR/USD currency pair has reached the supporting level of 1.2000 and pulled back. It is likely that the asset might target the level of 1.2350 and drop again.Gold has approached the lower boundary of downtrend, trying to pull back from it. In principle, gold prices might correct till the broken level of 1767.00 anytime soon.The US stock index S&P500 is trying to jump but trading in the downtrend for now. Currently, the asset’s price is about to drop below the level of 3862.00. The index might potentially gain support at the level of 3665.00.Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p500-potential-correction-ahead
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Dollar Rises on Higher Yields; Sterling Gets Budget Boost

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-rises-on-higher-yields-sterling-gets-budget-boost-2436879
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