Wine of the week: a stunning Alpine white

2019 Benedict White, Dveri Pax, Slovenia

£9.95, thewinesociety.com

The Wine Society sent over a case of tasting samples the other day entitled “Alpine Wines”. I was delighted to reacquaint myself with an old favourite of mine, 2020 Chignin Vers les Alpes Jean-François Quénard (£10.95), in this box of goodies. I first tasted the wines from Quénard some 30 years ago and I have never forgotten the shiver down my spine brought on by the racy, rapier-sharp Jacquère grape variety. The new 2020 vintage arrives in the country and it is as bright and steely as any wine I have tasted from this famous Juran estate. As the weather warms up and we search for electrifying dry whites to challenge our senses, this wine seems like the perfect antidote to oceans of samey sauvignon blanc. 

I was expecting the Chignin to perform at the highest level too, but I was flabbergasted by my featured white wine. With identical vital statistics to the rapier-sharp Jacquère, this exquisite Slovenian white is made from an inspired blend of pinot grigio, furmint and riesling. The Benedictine monks from Admont Abbey, across the border from Graz in Austria, have been producing wine in today’s Slovenia since 1139. Winemaker Danilo Flakus has taken the reins of the elite Austrian estate FX Pichler and this wine continues its tradition of making excellent wines. I urge you to taste these two stunning “Alpine” whites.

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Bentley Mulliner Bacalar – a boon for the super-rich

This marks the beginning of a new chapter for Bentley, says Piers Ward on Autocar. The carmaker teamed up with coachbuilder Mulliner to launch “ever more exclusive cars” – and the Mulliner Bacalar was born. Everyone who signed up for the limited-production model in 2020 is still committed, and every one of the 12 cars being made “found a home within days”, despite sporting a hefty price tag of £1.5m – rising to something more like £2m after customers’ specifications. The exquisite details, though, “add up to more than the sum of their parts”. A push of the starter button and you’re greeted with the “muffled muscularity” of Bentley’s 626bhp W12 engine. The result is “a blisteringly rapid car” that feels “more than capable of the claimed 200mph-plus top speed”.

Though it “shares key hard points with the regular GT convertible”, the Bacalar is longer, wider and shorter, cruising closer to the road than its cousin, and is “all sinew and muscle under a tautly stretched skin like LeBron James in a Savile Row suit”, says Angus MacKenzie on MotorTrend. The engine and transmission deliver Bentley’s “trademark 12-cylinder thrust in a single smooth surge all the way to 6,000 rpm”, but the car is calm when it goes down the road, “light on its feet and surprisingly responsive”. Though fast, the Bacalar is not “for ricocheting from apex to apex with your hair on fire”. Rather it has been “perfectly pitched for a languid late morning run along the Grande Corniche, the blue waters of the Mediterranean sparkling in the distance, en route to lunch at the Hôtel de Paris in Monaco”. 

The exterior is “striking”, says Stuart Gallagher on Auto Express, and the interior “a delight of details”. The cabin is “decked in 5,000-year-old riverbed wood” and surfaces are finished with an elegant golden tinge. The car is a “thoroughly precise and exact piece of design and engineering… Cocooned in the Bacalar’s strictly two-seater cockpit, you’re a world away from the normality of the day-to-day”. And on the road, it’s surprisingly agile for such a heavy car. “If any of the 12 owners find themselves away from a boulevard and on a more testing stretch of road, they won’t feel all at sea.” It’s “undeniably special”, agrees Kyle Fortune on motor1.com. If this is a preview of what’s to come from Bentley’s Mulliner division, “then the super-rich have got good reason to get very excited indeed”. 

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Properties for sale with outdoor dining terraces

Addisford, Dolton, Devon.

Addisford, Dolton, Devon. A refurbished and extended Grade II-listed, 17th-century cottage with bifold doors in the kitchen leading onto a dining terrace. The cottage is set in 11 acres of gardens and water meadows and has beamed ceilings and large open fireplaces. 4 beds, 4 baths, 2 receps garden studio. £1.75m Knight Frank 01392-848824.

Horton Vicarage, Leek, Staffordshire.

Horton Vicarage, Leek, Staffordshire. A Grade II-listed house built in 1753 for John Wedgwood of the famous pottery firm. It retains its original sash windows, marble fireplaces and exposed brickwork and has a garden room with floor-to-ceiling glass doors opening onto a terrace. 6 beds, 4 baths, 3 receps. £1.295m Savills 01952-239 500.

Barton Orchard, Bradford-on-Avon, Wiltshire.

Barton Orchard, Bradford-on-Avon, Wiltshire. A refurbished, Grade II-listed, late 17th-century house in an elevated position with views across Bradford-on-Avon. It has exposed Bath stone walls, flagstone floors, open fireplaces with wood-burning stoves and a landscaped garden that includes a raised terrace with a glass balustrade, which is ideal for outdoor dining. 4 beds, 2 baths, kitchen, 3 receps. £1m. Hamptons 01225-312244.

The Vineyard, Richmond, London TW10.

The Vineyard, Richmond, London TW10. A Grade II-listed Queen Anne house with Regency additions set in a private walled garden with a dedicated seating area that is ideal for outdoor dining. The house has open fireplaces, a panelled drawing room and a former ballroom with oak flooring and floor-to-ceiling sash windows that overlook the garden. 3 beds, 2 beds, 4 receps, open-plan breakfast kitchen, two-bed annexe, off-street parking. £4.25m Inigo 020-3687 3071.

Howkeld Mill, Welburn Park, Kirkbymoorside, North Yorkshire.

Howkeld Mill, Welburn Park, Kirkbymoorside, North Yorkshire. A converted, Grade II-listed Victorian watermill with mature gardens that include a timber gazebo with an adjoining stone-flagged terrace. 5 beds, 3 baths, 3 receps, dining kitchen, outbuildings, tennis court. £850,000 Humberts 01904-611828.

Breach Manor, Claverdon, Warwickshire.

Breach Manor, Claverdon, Warwickshire. A Grade II-listed manor house surrounded by grounds that include a landscaped garden, a paddock, meadows and a fishing lake. The house has beamed ceilings, flagstone and oak floors, leaded-light windows, large inglenook fireplaces, a wood-burning stove and a country kitchen with an Aga. 6 beds, 4 baths, 3 receps, stables, 8.84 acres. £1.35m Fine & Country 01926-455950.

Langley House, Upton, Cambridgeshire.

Langley House, Upton, Cambridgeshire. This house was built in 2009 in a style that blends Dutch Gabled and New England architecture. It has far-reaching views over open countryside and French doors to the rear opening onto landscaped gardens that are laid out to include areas for al-fresco dining. The kitchen/family room includes a double-height section overlooked from a gallery above. 6 beds, 3 baths, 3 receps. £1.75m Fine & Country 01780-750200.

Cut Mill House, Bosham, Chichester, West Sussex.

Cut Mill House, Bosham, Chichester, West Sussex. This house dates in part to the reign of Henry VII and was a working mill until the late 1920s, when it was extended and renovated in an Arts & Crafts style. It retains many original features and has a garden room overlooking an Italian-style courtyard with a fountain, which is perfect for summer entertaining, and grounds that include the original mill pond. 5 beds, 6 baths, 2 receps, study, conservatory, 1.52 acres. £2.895m Strutt & Parker 01243-832600.

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Combining business with leisure: the rise of the “bleisure” trip

How business travel will look in the post-pandemic world is one of the great unanswered questions, says Conor Sen on Bloomberg. At the same time, many people are looking forward – or at least planning to book – their first big post-lockdown holiday. That’s where the concept of “bleisure” comes in. “Our growing comfort with remote and flexible work arrangements may open up an even bigger category of travel that combines both business and leisure.” 

Particularly in the summer months, when the schools are out and work is slow, it may become normal to work “outside the office for two or three weeks from a scenic destination on the water or in the mountains”. In our “always on” culture, when you’re expected to respond promptly to emails at all hours, doing so from the Hamptons or Puerto Vallarta in Mexico “beats having to do it after commuting home from the office”. Airlines and accommodation will have to adapt. Travel will no longer be all about air miles and hotels will need internet fast enough to handle videoconferencing. 

Fun (and work) in the sun

Falling sales mean the transformation is already under way. United Airlines, for example, has expanded services to places on the water in the eastern US. And Marriott has been working to turn its hotels into “bleisure” destinations, says Laura Forman in The Wall Street Journal. Through its “Work Anywhere” promotion, travellers have been able to book rooms for just a day or get a full-day’s worth out of a single night’s booking. 

Hotels are also offering longer-stay packages, notes Sarah Marshall in The Independent. Beachcomber Resorts & Hotels (beachcomber-hotels.com), in Mauritius, offers a 65% discount for long-term stays of at least two months, while Heritage Resorts (heritageresorts.mu), located on Domaine de Bel Ombre on the south coast, offers two-month stays in a villa from £2,800 a month, including housekeeping, pool and garden maintenance, and Wi-Fi. 

Or how about an extended stay in a spa? Health and Fitness Travel (healthandfitnesstravel.com) offers 30 nights of pampering at Absolute Sanctuary on the beautiful island of Koh Samui in Thailand, from £7,875 per person, full board, including a wellness programme and transfers. Guests receive an in-depth wellness consultation, followed by “an array of rejuvenating treatments”, such as “lymphatic draining and Swedish massage”. Slightly closer to home, the UPA Medical Spa Centre (upa.lt/en), in the Lithuanian mineral spring resort of Druskininkai, has a minimum 14-night “Long-term Rehabilitation” package from €945 per person, and a three-night “Time for a Change” package from €267 “to boost one’s wellbeing in the age of lockdowns and remote work”.

Working from the beach

Even governments have been trying to cash in on the “working from the beach” ethos. Last summer, barbadoswelcomestamp.bbhttp://barbadoswelcomestamp.bb with its 12-month “Welcome Stamp”. The visa costs $3,000 for a family and applicants need to be earning $50,000 a year. Also in the Caribbean, Dominica, the Dutch island of Curaçao, the Cayman Islands, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda and the Bahamas all run similar schemes that allow visitors to work remotely for up to a year, with varying fees and conditions. 

Outside the Caribbean, Dubai and Mauritius also welcome “digital nomads”. Do note, however, that extended stays can result in tax liabilities for both employees and employers, so it’s best to seek advice before jetting off.

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Daily Market Outlook, April 30, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, April 30, 2021 Asian equity markets turned lower, purportedly due to Chinese restrictions on tech firms and despite the positive close on Wall Street. China’s official PMIs also missed expectations, with the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices falling to 51.1and 54.9, respectively. Yesterday, US GDP figures showed a strong gain of 6.4% (annualised) in Q1, with potentially an even stronger outturn anticipated for Q2, while initial jobless claims fell to a new low since the start of the pandemic. The recovery theme is also evident in the UK, with the Lloyds Business Barometer, released earlier this morning, showing the overall confidence index rising 14 points to 29% in April, above the long-term average for the first time in two-and-a-half years.Eurozone GDP and CPI inflation figures will likely dominate attention this morning. Ahead of Eurozone GDP at 10:00BST, Germany, Italy and Spain will be among countries to report first-quarter growth. France already posted growth of 0.4%q/q earlier this morning, above expectations for a flat print. Expect the Eurozone economy to have contracted by 0.8%q/q, with the decline primarily centred in those areas of the service sector most directly impacted by containment measures. That would be the second consecutive quarterly fall, meaning that the economy was in recession for the second time in twelve months. More positively, though, the April PMIs suggest that GDP will rise in Q2, helped by progress in vaccine deployment and scope for a gradual easing of restrictions.In terms of Eurozone inflation, look for an increase in headline CPI to 1.6%y/y in April from 1.3% in March. That is expected to be mostly because the sharp monthly fall in energy prices a year ago is not repeated this April. Core inflation, however, remains subdued, expect it to edge down to 0.8% from 0.9%. The Eurozone unemployment rate for March is expected to stay at 8.3%.In the afternoon session, US personal spending and income figures for March, as well the PCE deflator (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) will be the main focus. Personal income is forecast to have jumped up by 20% as a result of the stimulus from the American Rescue Plan. Expect spending to have risen by 5.2%, consistent with a 10.7% annualised surge in Q1 reported in yesterday’s GDP release. The PCE deflator is forecast to rise to 2.4% from 1.6% in February, mirroring the sharp rise in CPI inflation. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April could also be revised higher to 87.5 from 86.5 in the final reading, with progress in the vaccine rollout and an improving labour market supporting confidence.CITI: Month-end FX Hedging prelimThe preliminary estimate of month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows points to a greater than average USD selling need this month.· US equities and bonds have out-performed in April, meaning that foreigners’ needs to hedge gains in US assets will likely dominate this month-end’s rebalancing. Both bond and equity investors are likely to be USD sellers, although equities hedge rebalancing contributes 86% to the signal.· The signal exceeds 1.5 standard deviations in all crosses except GBP where good performance of UK equities and bonds creates some offsetting GBP selling needs.· Average signal strength across all USD crosses measures 1.7 standard deviations. Signals of this magnitude have occurred only 5% of the time since 2004.· There are plenty of data releases and central bank speakers scheduled for Friday, 30 April, albeit most of them fall hours ahead of the 4pm Ldn fix.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby)EUR/USD: 1.2030-50 (1.4BLN), 1.2075 (690M), 1.2100 (2.1BLN), 1.2125 (600M), 1.2150 (985M)USD/CHF: 0.9050 (310M)GBP/USD: 1.3900 (671M), 1.4000 (560M), 1.4095-1.4100 (410M)EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (775M), 0.8625 (200M)AUD/USD: 0.7650 (460M), 0.7775-0.7800 (700M)NZD/USD: 0.7200 (682M), 0.7300 (397M)USD/CAD: 1.2335-50 (330M), 1.2400 (1BLN)USD/JPY: 108.00-20 (900M), 108.50 (838M), 109.25-30 (1.1BLN)Larger FX Option PipelineGBP/USD: May03 $1.3700(Gbp1.3bln)AUD/USD: May04 $0.8000(A$1.1bln)AUD/NZD: May04 N$1.0855-65(A$2.0bln-AUD puts)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.1990 bullish aboveEURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.1990 supports look for a test of trendline resistance at 1.2125. UPDATE>>Target achieved expect profit taking pullback as 1.2080 supports bulls target a 1.22 test. A close sub 1.2080 would warn of deeper corrective cycleFlow reports suggest topside congestion through to the 1.2160 level from the highs and then while there maybe some weak stops just beyond stronger offers are likely through the level to the 1.2200 area with weak stops again appearing but very limited and the 1.2250 again seeing the stronger offers through to the 1.2300 level with the market then having the ability to test this year’s highs, downside bids light through to the 1.2000 area and then weak stops on a move through the 1.1920 level opening the market to the 1.1850 area where stronger congestion appears.GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.39 bearish belowGBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.3960 contains upside attempts look for a test of range support towards 1.37. UPDATE>> Through 1.3960 exposes offers and stops above 1.40 again.Flow reports suggest topside offers into the 1.4000 area and likely weak stops on a push through the 1.4020 level however, light congestion around the sentimental levels 1.4050, 1.4100 area likely to be a little stronger with long time trend line in the area then opening to weak sentimental to the 1.4200 strong offers with break out stops likely through the 1.4250 area.USDJPY Bias: Bullish above 108 targeting 112USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, as 107.50 acts as support there is potential for a test of the pivotal 108.50, through here will open another look at 110. Failure below 107 would be a significant bearish developmentFlow reports suggest downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, Topside offers appearing through the 109.00 level light offers until the 109.40 area is likely to see strong congestion increasing through to the 110.00 level before stronger stops are likely to appear.AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7700 bullish aboveAUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, the closing breach of .7730 has relieved downside pressure opening a move to test offers towards .7820Flow reports suggest topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there maybe some offers in the area the market looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situationDisclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-april-30-2021"
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Dollar Edges Higher, But Set For Another Weekly Decline

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Market Update – Month End – USD weak, Stocks & Commodities Bid

Market News Today – S&P500 closed at ATH again. USD slipped again (EUR at 2-mth high and up 3%+ for April, USDCAD at 3  year lows). AMZN Earnings big beat – +44% increase in sales ($108.5bn); record profits (tripled) AWS +32%, Ad sales a massive +77%; Shares +2.4% after-hours. TWTR beats, rev +28% ($1.04Bn). Yields rallied to 1.69% 2-week high (now 1.641%). Yesterday – US GDP (6.4%), Claims (553K) and Pending Home sales (1.9%) all missed expectations. Overnight Japanese data better than expected, Chinese data mixed (both close until Wednesday).

JPY under 109.00 at 108.75 (PP), Cable at 1.3945 (PP) and AUD rejected 0.7800 yesterday trades at 0.7775 (PP)

USOIL at 6- week high peaked at $65.00, Gold – $1770 following volatile session (highs 1790, lows 1756) BTC under 53,000 on close – back to 54,300 (PP) now.

European Open – Risk aversion picked up again overnight as investors were spooked by China’s anti-trust crackdown, although the DAX future is up 0.2%, after an unexpected expansion in French GDP at the start of the session and yesterday’s underperformance. The FTSE 100 future is down -0.2% and U.S. futures are also in the red, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ underperforming and down -0.4%.

Today – German GDP (Flash), EZ CPI (Flash) & GDP (Prelim), US PCE & Chicago PMI, Fed’s Kaplan. Earnings from Exxon, Chevron, Phillips 66, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, AstraZeneca, Barclays, BBVA, BNP, Eni

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.20%) rejected 1.5600 again yesterday moved under 50- and 20-hr MA and Daily PP. Next support 200-hr MA & S1 at 1.5550. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 47  & cooling , MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but remain above 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.0056.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Dollar Up, But Near Four Week Lows Thanks to Fed’s Dovish Tone

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Dollar set for 4th weekly drop on dovish Fed; loonie at 3-year high

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GBP/USD Set for Third Weekly Gain, But Next Week's Scottish Election Poses Risk

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Tate & Lyle to offload its sweeteners division

Shares in Tate & Lyle bounced this week after the 162-year-old company said that it is exploring the sale of a controlling stake in the largest part of the firm, says Hari Govind on Bloomberg. “One of Europe’s leading sugar producers” until it sold that business in 2010, Tate & Lyle has since focused on food ingredients, including sweeteners, with this division generating £1.8bn in sales last year, around 60% of total revenue. 

Good news, says Lex in the Financial Times. While the production of sweeteners is a “steady cash generator”, demand for them is gradually falling thanks to the growing awareness about their role in obesity. The sweetener business is also obscuring Tate & Lyle’s “fast-growing” food and beverage division, especially its “speciality ingredient” business, which helps food manufacturers replace sugars and fats with “healthier alternatives”. Selling the sweetener should therefore raise cash that could be reinvested in the company or used for acquisitions, as well as improving the group’s standing with “socially conscious investors”.

But a sale “is not without risk”, says Graham Ruddick in The Times. The group’s two main businesses are “deeply intertwined”, with its US factories making products for both divisions. There is also the risk that the move could create tax problems as it currently enjoys a “lower tax rate in the US thanks to its ability to offset UK losses and US profits”. Tate & Lyle will also need to get a good price, with analysts suggesting that it should aim for £1.2bn to make the deal worthwhile.

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Analysis: Pound's post-Brexit calm may face Scottish independence test

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AstraZeneca Vaccine Dynamics and Q121 Revenue Report

AstraZeneca is one of the leaders in the global race to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, which is facing a series of controversies. Apart from the J&J vaccine, the vaccine from AstraZeneca also faces possible blood clotting steps, thereby adding to the ongoing list of cases, including dosing doubts, production delays and supply cuts.

AstraZeneca will for the first time put out a sale of the coronavirus vaccine, Vaxzevria , which it is working on with the University of Oxford. Vaxzevria is a vaccine to prevent the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in people aged 18 years and over. COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Vaxzevria consists of another virus (from the adenovirus family) that has been modified to contain the SARS-CoV-2 protein-making gene. Vaxzevria does not contain the virus itself and cannot cause COVID-19.

Astrazeneca PLC is scheduled to report their earnings on April 30, before the market opens . This report is for the fiscal quarter ending March 2021. Based on analysts’ estimates at Zacks Investment Research, the EPS figure for the quarter was at $ 0.71 . The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $ 0.53 . Estimated earnings for 2021 will increase by a lower percentage with core income growing by around $ 4.75- $ 5.00 / share. Zacks ranked AstraZeneca at level # 3 (hold).

In the last quarter reported, the company delivered a revenue shock of 1.89%. The company’s revenue beat estimates in three of the past four quarters, with the average revenue surprise being 4.92%. AstraZeneca’s shares have risen 4.7% so far this year compared to the industry’s 3.1% increase.

Sales of AstraZeneca’s newer medicines, particularly cancer drugs such as Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi are expected to boost the company’s revenue in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the strong absorption of Calquence in leukemia patients has likely brought additional income. Other major AstraZeneca drugs such as Fasenra and Farxiga are likely to have contributed to the sales growth in the quarter that will be reported soon. However, Brilinta’s sales may be hurt due to price pressures in China as well as the impact of COVID-19.

In recent days the AstraZeneca vaccine issue has become a major topic in most media. The United States plans to distribute millions of doses of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine around the world, but oddly enoughAmerica itself does not use this vaccine. The US currently has 60 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine in stock, which the country does not use because the vaccine has not been approved by the FDA, while the country has three other vaccines that have been approved for emergency use (Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson). Despite the risks, the benefits of the vaccine are greater so distribution and use are continued as in Canada. Canada decided to give AstaZeneca injections only to those over the age of 40. Meanwhile, J&J said its study found the company’s treatment to be 85% effective against severe cases of the disease.

 

 

 

 

AstraZeneca, D1.

Menjelang laporan pendapatan Q121, harga saham AstraZeneca diperdagangkan melemah sebesar -0,68% saat laporan ini ditulis. Untuk Q1 harga sempat membuat harga tinggi $ 80,13 pada awal tahun, namun selama bulan Februari terkoreksi cukup dalam hingga $67,34. Saat ini diperdagangkan di kisaran $75,19. Secara tren mayor, memang harga berada dalam tren bullish, namun harga telah kehilangan momentum cukup lama selama kontroversi berlangsung. Prospek bullish terlihat lemah, meski kondisi harga masih berada di atas EMA 200 hari. Koreksi menargetkan dukungan $74,19 dan pergerakan di atas tahanan minor $77,27 akan berimplikasi pada reli lanjutan untuk $80,13. Secara luas, prospek bullish kehilangan momentum dan pergerakan cukup terbatas.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Analyst – HF Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The V-shaped recovery looks to be here at last

By the end of last year we were convinced that the UK would see a stunning pent-up demand-driven V-shaped recovery. We encouraged you to look at end-of-pandemic value stocks in November as the vaccine came good. And by December we were subjecting you to excitable “Roaring Twenties” cover stories. Then came the UK’s second lockdown. “So much for that,” you might have thought. But there is good news. As usual, it turns out we were less wrong than early. 

Five months on, the V is here. A few weeks ago, the consensus GDP growth forecast for the UK this year was 5.5%. Not any more: Berenberg has their forecast at 6.7% and Goldman Sachs have just revised theirs up to 7.8%. The CBI is telling the same story – reporting sharp upturns in sales as the UK reopens – and UK-listed companies across the board are seeing hugely positive momentum (even BP is reporting happy results).

The same holds in the US. S&P500 companies “are in great shape”, says Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. Forecast revenues, earnings and profit margins – all of which are pretty good indicators of what actual revenues, earnings and margins will be – “rose to record highs” last week. More firms are revising forecasts up than down. This is the opposite of the recovery after the global financial crisis (GFC), which was marked by relentless disappointment rather than regular surprises.

All this is impressive, but the most impressive bit of all is surely the profit-margin data. The insane levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus we have seen over the last year (four times the stimulus offered in the global financial crisis to cover less than one quarter of the economic loss, says BlackRock) have obviously helped out with demand. But to keep margins rising in the face of rising costs (of shipping, labour and commodities – see page 5 for more on the “new oil”) suggests that they have managed to boost the productivity of their existing workforce. After years of stagnating productivity numbers in the West, that is excellent news. It might even be enough to justify keeping the bull market going a little longer. 

None of this means there is nothing to worry about. Domestically, we have our wallpaper wars and in Scotland the terrifying (or hugely amusing – it depends where you live) prospect of having Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond sitting in Holyrood at the same time.

Globally, there is India’s Covid-19 nightmare a whole host of geopolitical tensions, the usual supply-chain worries (a genuine shortage of chips worldwide), the build up of public debt and Joe Biden’s tax plans. Not everyone is keen on the US president’s idea of doubling capital gains and dividend taxes on well-off Americans, particularly on top of more regulation. 

Still, most of these things (poor India aside) are intangibles for now, as Bill Blain says in his MorningPorridge blog. Focus on what is actually happening now and you see a lot of good news. If you want to invest in the building blocks of long-term growth in the UK (still one of the cheaper markets) try micro caps . But wherever you invest at the moment watch out for the genuine bubbles (yes, we are talking electric vehicle companies). There’s a difference between being an optimistic investor and being the greater fool. We aim to be the former. 

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