Tren Permintaan Emas Q1_2021

According to a report from the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand for Q1 2021 (excluding OTC) amounted to 815.7t, almost equivalent to Q4 2020, only down 23% compared to Q1 2020. Meanwhile, the average gold price in the first quarter was 13% higher y/y, but it fell 4% q/q. The opportunity to buy at a lower price relative to last year’s high has increased consumer demand as activity after the economic opening and the ongoing recovery lifted sentiment.

Jewellery demand was 477.4t, up 52% y/y. The value of jewellery spending – US $27.5 billion – was the highest for the first quarter since Q1 2013. Investment in bars and coins of 339.5t (+ 36% y/y) was supported by bargain-hunting, as well as expectations of building inflationary pressure. Consumer demand growth was offset by strong outflows from the gold backed ETF (gold ETF), which lost 177.9 in Q1 as higher interest rates and the downward trend in prices weighed on investor sentiment.

Q1 indicates a healthy level of net buying by central banks, while global official gold reserves grew by 95.5t, 23% lower y/y, but 20% higher on a q/q basis. Gold used in technology grew 11% y/y in Q1 as consumer confidence continued to recover. Demand at 81.2t was slightly above the five-year quarterly average of 80.9t.

Last week the China Gold Association reported that China’s gold consumption in the first quarter rose 93.9% from the same period the previous year to 288.2t. China, the world’s largest gold consumer, saw consumer demand in the first quarter of 2021 rise to 286.4t from the previous quarter.

The surge in demand for gold is supported by factors of improving economic conditions, lower gold prices and the massive sale related to holidays. China’s March net gold imports through Hong Kong surged to the highest level since December 2019 after new import quotas were issued by the central bank due to increased demand.

Last week, gold was trading down by -0.45%. It is still moving in a corrective wave since the peak of 2075.08 August 2020 was formed. Prices are still trading below the 26 week (1/2 year) moving average. This asset takes the average price to around 1675.00-1690.00, on the range seen at the peak of the decline that occurred when the COVID-19 virus spread to the mainland of the Blue Continent in March last year. Rising bond yields and increased risk appetite hurt XAUUSD prices. The benchmark 10-year yield rose to a more than  2-week high after a trillion-dollar proposal in spending and new data showing US economic growth in the first quarter.

XAUUSD, H8.

Intraday the short-term uptrend is under pressure; if the price cannot move above 1,800.00 then the price could remain flattened. A break below the 1,756.00 minor support level will erase any hopes of a rally, as the price could retest the 1,730.00 price range. A rebound of 1,678.00 forming a double bottom could finish this scenario, if there is no further rally movement above 1,800.00. As long as the minor support remains intact, the projection for the price will first consolidate below 1,800.00.

According to the CFTC report for the week ended April 27, Net Length gold futures slumped -10,879 contracts to 170,617, while Net Length silver futures increased +1,160 contracts to 42,841. For PGM, Net Long Nymex platinum futures added +3,611 contracts to 29,296, while those for palladium added +309 contracts to 3,004.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analysts  – HF Educational office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /233788/
via IFTTT

Market Update – May 3

Market News Today –  A month-end bid, and rotation out of equities has supported!

Covid continues to wreak havoc in parts of Asia, and will keep investors nervous again this week, as India deals with a firestorm of new cases (the highest daily cases anywhere in the world) and rising deaths. Additionally, parts of Japan remain under a state of emergency with restrictions in areas including Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Japan will be on Golden Week holidays Monday through Wednesday, and there are no top-tier data releases for the remainder of the week. China’s April trade report is due at the end of the week. The quiet session in Asia impacted trading in Europe today, with the UK still on an extended weekend break. GER30 futures are fractionally higher at the moment, US futures are outperforming, although the tech heavy USA100 future is struggling amid lingering concern over China’s anti-trust crackdown, that also saw the Hang Seng selling off again. Inflation developments and lingering tapering fears will also be on market’s minds as the BoE meeting comes into view. Elsewhere, CPI data from around the region are due, along with the usual mix of growth, trade, retail sales and US NFP. For central banks, the RBA, BOJ and BoE meet, though no changes are expected. German retail sales jumped 7.7% m/m in March.

In FX markets, the Yen and US DOllar retreated and USDJPY lifted to 109.62, while USDIndex jump to 91.40. US dollar strengthened as risk trades slipped further. The USOIL meanwhile dropped back to $62.90 per barrel. Ethereum has hit a fresh record high, follows news of a potential digital bond sale on the ethereum blockchain.

Today – The calendar today includes the final readings for Eurozone April manufacturing PMIs, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed’s Chairman Powell speech.  Earnings season continues with reports from Estee Lauder, Enterprise Products, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, WEC Energy, Williams Companies, ON Semi, SolarEdge, Loews Corp., Diamondback Energy, Chegg, and Apollo Global Management. The Treasury will outline its Q2 and Q3 borrowing projections.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT (+0.37%)  – NZDJPY reversed Friday’s losses and extended to 78.65. The overall outlook remains positive, while in the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI breaking above 50 with MACD extending northwards but remains below 0. ATR (H1) at 0.1104 & ATR (D) at 0.6449.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /233787/
via IFTTT

Dollar Flat in Quiet Trade; PMIs, ISM Dominate Amid Holidays

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-flat-in-quiet-trade-pmis-ism-dominate-amid-holidays-2492538
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, May 03, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, May 03, 2021 Fed’s Kaplan (non-voter) opined that it is appropriate to start talking about tapering the asset purchases, weighed on risk sentiments on Friday. The S&P 500 declined 0.72%, dragged down by tech shares, but still capped the third straight month of gains, while VIX was also higher at 18.61. UST bond closed on a strong note due to month-end rebalancing flows with the 10-year yield at 1.63%. Meanwhile, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI rose from 50.6 in March to 51.9 in April.Kaplan had noted that “we’re now at a point where I’m observing excesses and imbalances in financial markets”. Separately, Treasury Secretary Yellen had defended President Biden’s economic spending plan, citing that it is spread out quite evenly over 8-10 years and inflation should not be an issue. Meanwhile, US personal incomes surged by 21.1% in March, the most in records dating back to 1946 and powered by the third round of pandemic-relief checks which lifted spending of goods and services by 4.2%. The core PCE deflator also jumped by 1.8% yoy (0.4% mom), the most since 2018.Asian markets trade with a muted tone today as markets in Japan and China are closed for holidays and as investors await the manufacturing PMIs due from US, Europe and Asia (including S’pore). Today’s economic calendar also comprises Indonesia’s April CPI and Hong Kong’s 1Q21 GDP growth. Fed Chair Powell is speaking today. For the week ahead, watch RBA policy decision (both the cash rate target and 3-year yield target are likely to be untouched at 0.10%) tomorrow.CFTC DataUSD Sentiment Weakens Again Data covers up to Tuesday Apr 27 and were released on Friday Apr 30. Speculative sentiment in the USD continues to deteriorate, CFTC data for the week through last Tuesday show. The aggregate USD short rose USD2.5bn, looking at the various exposures in the major currencies we monitor in this report, taking the net short USD bet to USD10.8bn, the highest in six weeks.While shifts in EUR positioning and sentiment are typically the primary driver of swings in broader positioning, it is short-covering in the JPY contract that is driving the bulk of USD selling pressure this week, even though the JPY was the worst performing currency among the majors in the reporting period, speculative accounts cut JPY shorts as USDJPY broke back under the 108 zone. Net JPY shorts were reduced USD1.3bn.Elsewhere, investors handled currency exposures with a fairly light touch. Net GBP longs were lifted USD348mn to take the net long to USD2.5bn, or 29.2k contracts. Net GBP longs have peaked in the past year or so nearer 35k contracts so there may still be some room for bullish sentiment to develop.Speculators lifted net CAD longs modestly (USD217mn) but both gross longs and gross shorts continue to trend higher and there is clearly a reluctance among speculators—still—to buy into the CAD bull trend. Net positioning this week (USD1.27bn) is barely higher now (the equivalent of 15.7k contracts) than at the end of the year (15.3k contracts) when USDCAD was trading near 1.29. • Changes elsewhere were unremarkable; net EUR longs were little changed on the week (at USD12.3bn). Net AUD, MXN and CHF positioning is essentially flat. Net NZD longs rose slightly (USD193mn) but the overall exposure is limited. Outside of FX, net gold longs were cut just under USD2bn in the week to USD30.3bnG10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby)Larger FX Option PipelineGBP/USD: May03 $1.3700(Gbp1.3bln)AUD/USD: May04 $0.8000(A$1.1bln)AUD/NZD: May04 N$1.0855-65(A$2.0bln-AUD puts)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.1990 bullish aboveEURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, the close sub 1.2080 would warn of deeper corrective cycle to test support at 1.1990/60 failure here opens 1.1850Flow reports suggest topside congestion through to the 1.2160 level from the highs and then while there maybe some weak stops just beyond stronger offers are likely through the level to the 1.2200 area with weak stops again appearing but very limited and the 1.2250 again seeing the stronger offers through to the 1.2300 level with the market then having the ability to test this year’s highs, downside bids light through to the 1.2000 area and then weak stops on a move through the 1.1920 level opening the market to the 1.1850 area where stronger congestion appears.GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.39 bearish belowGBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.3960 contains upside attempts look for a test of range support towards 1.37.Flow reports suggest topside offers through the 1.3900 level light through to the 1.3940 area where offers are likely to be a little stronger with further offers likely to be into the 1.4000 area with stops likely through the 1.4020 area and opening a stronger move higher, downside bids strong into the 1.3800 with congestion likely to continue through the level and while there may be some stops that congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.3750 level, light bids through the level but increasing again into the 1.3700 level with congestion then continuing through the level.USDJPY Bias: Bullish above 108 targeting 112USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, as 107.50 acts as support there is potential for a test of the pivotal 108.50, through here will open another look at 110.Flow reports suggest downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7700 bullish aboveAUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, the closing breach of .7730 has relieved downside pressure opening a move to test offers towards .7820Flow reports suggest topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there maybe some offers in the area the market looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation.Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-may-03-2021"
via IFTTT

Dollar Up, Holds Gains Ahead of Central Bank Policy Decisions, U.S. Economic Data

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-up-holds-gains-ahead-of-central-bank-policy-decisions-us-economic-data-2492449
via IFTTT

Ethereum breaks past $3,000

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/ethereum-breaks-past-3000-2492433
via IFTTT

Dollar holds gains as traders look to U.S. data for policy cues

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/dollar-holds-gains-as-traders-look-to-us-data-for-policy-cues-2492413
via IFTTT

Wills aren’t set in stone – change them with a deed of variation

You might think that once a person dies their will is set in stone. In fact, it is possible to change someone’s will once they are deceased, and it is becoming increasingly common. 

Families are using a legal document known as a deed of variation to alter who benefits from a will, with the most common reason being to reduce inheritance tax bills and help younger generations.

“We have seen a jump in the number of families wanting a deed of variation in the past year,” Paul Campion, a chartered financial planner at Succession Wealth, told The Mail on Sunday. “This is due to an increase in unexpected deaths of older family members” owing to the pandemic.

“The deceased often haven’t had time to check that their will still reflects their wishes and the needs of their family. As a result, their family sometimes chooses to distribute assets in a different way to that set out in the will.” 

A deed of variation doesn’t give anyone a free hand to do what they like with someone’s will; this is not your chance to eliminate your siblings from an inheritance. In order to be valid, the deed of variation has to be written within two years of the death and, more importantly, the deed must be signed by all the executors and beneficiaries of the estate. If everyone isn’t agreed on the amendments the will cannot be changed.

One of the most common reasons for using a deed of variation is to allow an estate to skip a generation. “People often inherit from their elderly parents when they are in their 50s and 60s,” Sarah Paton, a solicitor at Irwin Mitchell told The Mail on Sunday. 

“By that time, they are often financially comfortable, but they have children of their own who are more in need of support.” The parents could simply choose to pass what they have inherited straight onto their children without a deed of variation, but the risk is that “you could only do so tax-free if you live another seven years,” says Harry Brennan in The Daily Telegraph. Die within that time and the money could trigger an inheritance tax bill. With a deed that danger is averted.

There is no specific form you need to fill in for a deed of variation. You merely need to write a letter explaining the changes you want to make and keep it safe with the will and the “instrument of variation” checklist that you can find at Gov.uk. As long as the variation meets the government’s requirements in the checklist – which include being done within two years of death and being approved by all beneficiaries and executors – the changes can go ahead.

The only difficulty you may encounter is any of the beneficiaries of the will being under 18. In this case a deed of variation may not be possible as one of the beneficiaries is a minor and, therefore, unable to legally agree to the changes to the will. 

To ensure your deed of variation is legally binding you may want to get a solicitor to help draft it. Their charges will depend on how complex the changes are. Once the deed is written it then needs to be signed, witnessed and dated by all parties involved.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/603164/wills-arent-set-in-stone-change-them-with-a-deed-of-variation
via IFTTT

Three lessons from football’s European Super League disaster

In the business school textbooks, the launch of “New Coke” in 1985 will no longer be written up as the biggest flop of all time. (It had to be withdrawn, and replaced by the classic formula, after only 79 days on the market.) That honour will now surely go to the launch of the European Super League.

The plan by 12 of the largest teams in Europe, including Manchester United, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Juventus, to launch a separate competition consisting largely of games between the elite, might have made the handful of teams included a lot of money – but the fans hated it, as did the sport’s governing bodies. Even prime ministers and presidents were quick to join the condemnation. The plan unravelled in less than 48 hours. It is now dead. There are three lessons to draw from the debacle.  

1. Know your core customers

Every business has existing customers, and then all the new ones it might hope to reach if it just tweaked the product a little. There is often a tension between the two. In the north of England, people want to watch Liverpool play Burnley and Leeds. Across Asia, they would rather see them play Barcelona and Manchester City: they don’t know where Burnley is, and don’t really care. This problem is not unique to football. Apple devotees want upmarket, top-of-the range phones, but another billion people just want a cheaper device that works well. Lots of loyal customers want top-of-the-range, innovative Bavarian engineering from BMW, but millions more just want a cheap, small car. The point is that the hardcore loyal customers have to be kept on board, even as you extend the brand and develop new markets. That can be a tricky tightrope to walk sometimes, and it is very easy to fall off. But it is the only safe way to grow the business – and when you get it right, it is a brilliant strategy.  

2. Read the room

If you are going to make a radical change to the business model, then you need to choose the right moment. After a year of lockdown, and with the Covid-19 epidemic still raging around the world, people understandably place more value on anything that has a sense of place and continuity. There is no great desire for radical change. Everyone just wants life to get back to normal. It was the worst possible time to attempt a radical reorganisation of the European game, and one that might have bankrupted many smaller teams that people still feel very attached to. In a buoyant, optimistic moment, the clubs might have got away with it. In the spring of 2021, they didn’t have a chance. It wouldn’t have been a good time for Cadbury to change the flavour of Dairy Milk, or for M&S to stop selling socks. Likewise, it wasn’t the right moment to ditch a football league more than a century old for something new.  

3. Keep the staff on board

Volkswagen couldn’t make a switch to electric vehicles if all the engineers came out on day one and said they hated them, and warned everyone they would break down before they reached the first roundabout. Barclays couldn’t close all its branches and switch everyone to app banking if the employees walked out saying your money was not safe. For a change as large as this, the clubs had to make sure the managers and the leading players were all signed up to the transformation, and were willing to defend it in public. Instead, it was as much of a surprise to them as it was to everyone else. That was simply incompetent management – and it made an already difficult sell impossible. 

So the European Super League is dead, for now anyway, but it wasn’t all for nothing. The big clubs were grappling with issues that confront many companies. Now at least those companies have some guidance. The Super League made a total hash of their plans and in doing so made clear to everyone else some of the mistakes that have to be avoided. It is unlikely that anyone will say thank you – but perhaps they should. 

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/603171/three-lessons-from-footballs-european-super-league-disaster
via IFTTT

António Horta-Osório: the tennis ace who saved Lloyds Bank

• SEE MORE Can accident-prone Credit Suisse ever turn the corner?

Asked to identify the high point of his career to date, António Horta-Osório pinpoints an afternoon in May 2017 when he got a call from a Treasury official saying: “António, we’ve sold the final shares”. After eight long years, Lloyds Bank was finally fully re-privatised. He called a staff conference and said: “‘We did it. We gave the taxpayers’ money back. And it’s a great tribute to you’. We made a toast. It was a really good moment.” 

Sleepless in the City

Whatever else he accomplishes now that he is off to Credit Suisse, the suave Portuguese banker will always be remembered in Britain as the man who brought Lloyds back from the brink, says the Financial Times – famously at a cost to his own health. Horta-Osório faced a big job rebuilding the broken bank after the banking crisis, but the real test came within months of his 2011 appointment when the eurozone crisis threatened to freeze funding markets again. “I could see the bank might die,” said Horta-Osório – and it stopped him sleeping. “I took it really to heart as my responsibility to save it.” Diagnosed with stress-induced exhaustion, he was sent to the Priory clinic to recover. 

Horta-Osório, 57, traces his sense of duty back to his early years in a Jesuit school in Lisbon. “I have been educated to help others, serve others. [It is] a moral obligation.” But he balances his high-mindedness with a “brute competitiveness” inherited from his father, a champion table-tennis player. Tennis has always loomed large in Horta-Osório’s life. A measure of his determination is that when he broke his wrist at 30 and was told he’d never play again, “he promptly taught himself to play left-handed”, says the London Evening Standard. 

Horta-Osório enjoyed a professional education at INSEAD and Harvard Business School and took his first job at Citibank Portugal, says The Guardian, later joining Goldman Sachs. Arriving at Santander in 1993, he was rapidly promoted by the bank’s revered chair, Emilio Botín, running the Spanish bank’s Brazilian arm before being parachuted into the UK in 2006 to unite a series of building societies under the Santander banner. 

In the years that followed, Horta-Osório “became a pillar of the British establishment as few foreign bankers have”, says the FT. Granted a plum role at the Bank of England, he’s a regular tennis player at that “sporting icon of the ruling class”, Queen’s Club in Kensington, and chair of the Wallace Collection of fine art. He’s even achieved the distinction of having his private life raked over by the tabloids. True, he didn’t endear himself to fellow bank bosses when he “broke ranks” over PPI mis-selling and compensation (thereby saddling Lloyds with a £22bn bill); and the bank he bequeaths is considered “dowdy” by some. But at least Britain’s largest high-street bank “looks safe and well-run”.

A new broom at Credit Suisse

No wonder the bankers of Zurich can’t wait to hire him, says The Times. After some of the most turbulent years in its history, Horta-Osório is set to become the first ever Credit Suisse chairman from outside the Swiss establishment. When appointed in December, the bank was reeling from an extraordinary row over a corporate spying scandal and allegations of racism. Since then, it’s been clobbered reputationally and financially by embroilment in the Greensill and Archegos scandals. Doubtless, Horta-Osório will “find a way to embed himself in Swiss society” as effectively as he has in Britain – and he insists he feels none of the dread that plagued him a decade ago. But according to an ex-Credit Suisser, he needs to brace himself. “This is like nothing he’s ever dealt with before. Lloyds was easy by contrast.” 

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/603178/antonio-horta-osorio-the-tennis-ace-who-saved-lloyds-bank
via IFTTT

The charts that matter: copper hits a ten-year high

Welcome back.

In this week’s magazine, we’re taking a look at cronyism, sleaze, or, if you prefer, good old fashioned corruption. In our main feature, Stuart Watkins asks if we’re living in a “new era of sleaze”, and argues that not only does it destroy confidence in our government and institutions, but it destroys wealth as well. Elsewhere, on a more positive note, Max King looks at the best ways to invest in micro-cap stocks, and David Stevenson investigates the fast-growing world of equity crowdfunding.

In the podcast this week, Merryn talks to Tom Slater from one of MoneyWeek's favourite investment rusts, Scottish Mortgage. Tom is a big fan of growth stocks, and sees no reason to stop buying them. Because we know so many of you hold this trust, it's a longer than usual epsiode – and it's fascinating. Listen to what Tom has to say here.

This week’s “Too Embarrassed To Ask” video takes a look at Ponzi schemes, perhaps the best-known of the many financial scams people seem to get into, and explains what they are and how they work. Watch that here.

Here are the links for this week’s editions of Money Morning and other web stories you may have missed.

• Monday Money Morning: What is “Britcoin” and what could it mean for you?
• Web article: Can accident-prone Credit Suisse ever turn the corner?
• Tuesday Money Morning: What do investment trust directors do?
• Web article: The Greensill saga: what’s it about and what does it mean for you?
• Wednesday Money Morning: Does the old investment adage to “sell in May” still hold true?
• Thursday Money Morning: Central bank digital currencies are coming, whether you like it or not
• Friday Money Morning: Inheritance tax bills are set to rise – will you be caught out?
• Web article: Frenzied house price boom leaves buyers desperate

Now for the charts of the week.

The charts that matter 

Gold’s mini-rally dropped off a little.

Gold price chart

(Gold: three months)

The US dollar index (DXY – a measure of the strength of the dollar against a basket of the currencies of its major trading partners) continued to slide.

US dollar index chart

(DXY: three months)

The Chinese yuan (or renminbi) looked to be weakening against the dollar recently, but has strengthened in the last week or two (when the red line is rising, the dollar is strengthening while the yuan is weakening). 

USD/CNY currency chart

(Chinese yuan to the US dollar: since 25 Jun 2019)

The downward drift in the yield on the ten-year US government bond halted, as yields turned back up.

US treasury bond yield chart

(Ten-year US Treasury yield: three months)

The yield on the Japanese ten-year bond also arrested its decline.

Japanese government bond yield chart

(Ten-year Japanese government bond yield: three months)

The yield on the ten-year German Bund, continued its seemingly unstoppable rise towards positive territory.

German Bund yield chart

(Ten-year Bund yield: three months)

Copper’s raging bull market continued. It’s up by 26% so far this year and is up to its highest level since 2011.

Copper price chart

(Copper: nine months)

The closely-related Aussie dollar is wobbling higher along with copper.

AUD/USD currency chart

(Aussie dollar vs US dollar exchange rate: three months)

Cryptocurrency bitcoin recovered some of its losses, bit its meteoric rise seems to be over – for now.

Bitcoin price chart

(Bitcoin: three months)

US weekly initial jobless claims continued its downward trend, falling by 13,000 to 553,000, compared to 566,000 last week (revised up from 547,000). The four-week moving average fell to 611,750, down 44,000 from 655,750 (which was revised up from 651,000) the week before. It’s the lowest average number of claims since March 2020, when it was 225,500.

US initial jobless claims chart

(US initial jobless claims, four-week moving average: since Jan 2020)

The oil price seems to be making its way back up, but faces headwinds as India’s economy slows. India is the world’s third biggest oil market.

Brent crude oil price chart

(Brent crude oil: three months)

Amazon headed up – investors’ appetite for growth stocks has clearly not exhausted itself yet. 

Amazon share price chart

(Amazon: three months)

Tesla, however, slipped down, despite higher profits (though not all from selling electric cars – Tesla made $101m from bitcoin and $518m from “regulatory credits”).

Tesla share price chart

(Tesla: three months)

Have a great weekend. 

Ben

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/603183/the-charts-that-matter-copper-hits-a-ten-year-high
via IFTTT

Equity crowdfunding: a crowded field set to keep growing

In October last year the two biggest equity-crowdfunding platforms in the UK, Seedrs and Crowdcube, announced that they were hoping to merge. At that stage this alternative world of early stage business funding appeared to be in poor shape, especially during the first phase of the pandemic when investors ran for the hills. 

The merger seemed a solution to these woes: as Seedrs observed in a report, the deal would be “a pro-competitive transaction that, first and foremost, is about the survival and sustainability of an innovative method of equity-finance in a David versus Goliath battle against the established providers of equity funding” for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). 

And then last month came the news that the competition watchdog, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), had scuppered the deal. The regulators worried that the proposed merger “may be expected to result in a substantial lessening of competition... within the supply of equity-crowdfunding platforms to SMEs and investors in the UK”.

You might have thought this news would result in panic in the crowdfunding sector, but I talked to Crowdcube last week and there seem to be signs of increasing confidence. It looks as though both platforms will survive; in fact, Crowdcube told me that its revenues hit all-time highs in the second half of last year and it was forecasting profitability in the subsequent six months. These platforms are probably going to remain a part of the investing landscape for some time yet.

Equity crowdfunding is not just the young

All of this prompted me to dig around a little more into what investors actually do on these platforms. I’m sure we can debate endlessly whether the returns investors have made through the growing number of exits (whereby investors cash out thanks to a flotation or a sale of the company to another business) on both leading platforms outweighs the obvious risk of companies failing. What interests me more are the practical issues: who actually invests on these platforms and how do they go about building portfolios of investments in risky, early stage businesses?

My sense is that most investors think that crowdfunding is probably only for young people who love to dabble in backing breweries or next-generation consumer brands. But I’ve never been entirely convinced by this caricature. Like many grey-haired 50-somethings, I have been investing capital on both platforms fairly regularly for the last two to three years. And having talked to other colleagues and friends, my impression has been that most investors are probably aged between 40 and 60, with an average stake per “campaign” in the hundreds of pounds, all within a portfolio comprising around five to ten investments per person. 

That certainly fits my profile: I have made a total of 15 investments over the last three years, with the average sum around a few hundred pounds and a maximum of £2,000. My view is that equity-crowdfunding serves a useful purpose for 1% or 2% of one’s total investments, sitting alongside venture-capital trusts. Again, like most friends and acquaintances I talk to who crowdfund, I tend to focus on certain niches, in my case fintech businesses. As with any investment I opt for what I understand.

How much are the rich risking?

But does the data from the platforms back up my hunches? Looking at Crowdcube’s numbers provided to me this week – and I assume that Seedrs’ data wouldn’t be too different – the answer seems to be yes.

Crowdcube reports that 62% of its investors are either high net-worth (HNW) individuals or sophisticated investors, with the average age of this group in the 50s. Looking at these wealthier types, the average portfolio size is £15,000, the average number of investments is eight and the average investment per campaign, or pitch, is £1,800.

Looking more specifically at the top 25% of HNW and sophisticated investors, the average portfolio size increases to £50,000, with the average investment per pitch at £3,383, and the mean number of investments at 15.

Crowdcube also provides some useful data on how this category allocates its cash between different stages in the life-cycle of a business: £50,500 in total goes to early-stage businesses, £46,000 to growth investments (established companies ) and £21,000 to seed, or pre-revenue, firms. 

If we look at the wider investor base – let’s call them the everyday investors – the average portfolio size is £2,093, the average number of investments is five and the typical investment size is £390. And for all types of investor the average is a professional who lives in southeast England or London. 

Looking at both categories – everyday and wealthier – Crowdcube reports that “the amount of investment has gone up each year overall... [however, people] are investing slightly lower amounts year-on-year but into a greater number of companies, so they are diversifying their portfolios”. Crowdcube reports that in 2020 fintech was its most popular sector, followed by mobility (e-bikes and e-cars), healthtech and cleantech. I think most investors are behaving sensibly. It looks as if they are allocating no more than 1%-3% of their total portfolio to these riskier investments and they are diversifying, across five to ten different pitches. Despite the CMA’s ruling, I think the sector will keep growing. 

What it really needs now is a run of big wins where investors take home many multiples of their initial investment. Maybe some of the cash-hungry fintechs constantly raising cash will deliver on their promise? 

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/603165/equity-crowdfunding-a-crowded-field-set-to-keep-growing
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: EURAUD Reversal Potential

EURAUD In Breakout Pattern?Following the breakout above the bearish channel which has framed the sell off from Q3 2020 highs, EURAUD has yet to break above the 1.5671 level. With a rising trend line off the year’s lows supporting the correction, price has formed an ascending triangle pattern against the 1.5671 level posing the potential for a breakout towards the 1.5931 level next.Fundamentally, this is an interesting trade as both currencies had been higher against the Dollar, reversed and are now recovering. For now, EUR remains weaker against the Dollar, however, this position could soon shift with EURUSD seeing a topside channel break, while AUDUSD is potentially at the right shoulder of a large head and shoulders pattern suggesting the room for a reversal. If this plays out, expect a quick move up to 1.5931. Alternatively, if this view doesn’t play out, traders can look for a downside break of the rising trend line to target a move back to 1.5264.Key Data to Watch The RBA meeting next week will be the key catalyst for this move. If the RBA takes a more optimistic tone on the economy we are likely to see EURAUD sink like a stone. However, if the RBA take a more cautious approach and downplays the strength in the economy, this could allow EURAUD to pop higher.Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-euraud-reversal-potential"
via IFTTT

Estee Lauder Q3 Earnings Preview

Estee Lauder (EL) Q3 earnings report is due on May 3, 2021. Considering the previous quarterly report, this guide will forecast the company’s third-quarter earnings report.

On February 5, 2021, Estee Lauder released its Q2 report. It posted net revenues of $4.85 billion for the second quarter that ended on December 31, 2020, a 5% raise and a 3% increase in constant currency over the prior year of $4.62 billion. The company reported net earnings of $873 million, up from $557 million the previous year. Net earnings per share were $2.37, up from $1.52 during the last period. Excluding the gain of foreign currencies, adjusted earnings per share increased 21 percent. [1]

During the second quarter of fiscal 2021, online revenue growth remained high in all regions as the company and its retailers implemented digital marketing strategies to meet customer demand online. In North America, net sales declined in the region but improved sequentially from the first quarter. Travel retail net sales increased in the single digits, due to increased travel within the Asia/Pacific region. According to the company’s reports, the total reported operating income was $1.06 billion, up from $261 million the previous year. Operating profits rose by 10% [2]. This rise was primarily due to higher net sales and efficient expense management in the company as a result of cost-cutting measures implemented in response to COVID-19.

Estee’s earnings are divided into three categories: skincare, makeup, and fragrance. Skincare net sales increased significantly in the previous year. Dr. Jart+ net sales, which it acquired in December 2019, contributed almost 7% to skincare net sales growth. Because of the effects of COVID-19 on the makeup industry, the net profits of all products fell. Fragrance sales also grew due to various high-end perfume brands.

For the Q3 fiscal year, the company intends to continue the momentum and support improving sales growth. The company plans to extend its long-term growth goals of 6% to 8% revenue growth. Reported net sales are expected to rise between 13% and 14% over the prior-year period. Moreover, the company expects earnings per share to range between $0.99 and $1.11. [3]

Estee Lauder – Technical Analysis

On April 29, shares of Estee Lauder rose to $315.55 on what proved to be an overall positive trading session for the stock market. However, since the share price is above its 5EMA, 20EMA, and 50EMA, the trend is expected to be bullish, and EL could see some selling pressure in the upcoming days.

1. https://www.elcompanies.com/en/investors/earnings-and-finferencess/quarterly-earnings/2021
2. https://www.elcompanies.com/en/investors/earnings-and-finferencess/quarterly-earnings/2021
3. https://www.elcompanies.com/en/investors/earnings-and-finferencess/quarterly-earnings/2021

Adnan Abdul Rehman

Regional Market Analyst

from HF Analysis /233409/
via IFTTT