Monday, May 31, 2021
Dollar Outlook for the Week: More Sales Ahead of the NFP
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Ethereum rises 5% at $2,509; bitcoin firm
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Nikkei H1 approaching key resistance, potential reversal
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USDJPY, H1 breaking key support, potential for a drop
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USDIndex: May 31 a repeat of April 30?
USDIndex, H4
The Dollar Index’s move to close the week cooled from 90.41 to 90.00 ahead of the long weekend. This raises the question of whether this is a normal end-of-the month correction, or is the break set to continue down? The key data this week to begin the new month is the US Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday June 4.
Last week the H4 timeframe saw the price break above the MA50 and make a two-week high at 90.41, and saw a trend reversal with a new higher low in line with the MACD that broke above the 0 line and RSI stand above the 50 level. It is similar to the end of April when the price broke above the MA50 and rested there before breaking back and falling heavily on the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls report at 266k from the 978k forecast. This Friday’s forecast is between 621k and 700k.
As Fed Vice Chairs Randal Quarles and Richard Clarida announced, the heating up of US inflation should prompt policymakers to start talking about inflation at the upcoming meeting. This is consistent with comments in the minutes of the previous April meeting.
US inflation for April jumped to 4.2%, the highest figure in 13 years since September 2008, from 2.6% in March, 1.7% in February and 1.4% in January.
As for the technical trend this week, H4 has a chance of price circling within the MA50 and MA200 frames in anticipation of the hiring figures this Friday. But given the trend that the MACD is cutting the signal line down and the RSI is falling at the 51 level, if the price breaks below the MA50 the first support is at the latest low at 89.50.
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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
from HF Analysis /240958/
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Should you move your business to a four-day week?
Businesses in Scotland will have the opportunity to trial a four-day working week following the re-election of the Scottish National Party. The SNP has promised a £10m fund to help businesses explore four-day working amid claims that such a shift could boost economic productivity and support the wellbeing of staff.
Four-day weeks are not as revolutionary as they might sound. Large organisations such as Unilever are already trying out the idea in parts of the business, while a number of high-profile smaller enterprises have also made this move in recent years.
Some economists also back the initiative. The think tank Autonomy has urged the UK government to support a move to a four-day working week in an attempt to combat potential rises in unemployment following the pandemic.
Such moves could prove popular. In 2019, when Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party suggested reducing the standard working week to 32 hours – the average Briton currently works 42.5 hours a week, some of the longest hours in Europe – research found that 63% of Britons supported the idea.
Businesses that currently operate with four-day weeks do report significant advantages. A trial at Microsoft, for example, found moving to four days at one of its operations had boosted employees’ productivity by 40%, more than making up for the 20% reduction in their hours.
Other firms have reported significant reductions in absenteeism, with the extra time off boosting the physical and mental health of their staff. The charity Advice Direct Scotland, which now operates with a four-day week, says its sickness rates have fallen by 75%. Recruitment and retention have also improved.
However, introducing a four-day week is not without its practical challenges. And smaller businesses, which often have less flexibility in the way they can operate, may find these particularly complicated.
In France, for example, the launch of a shorter working week in the late 1990s prompted some employers to increase the size of their workforces, but the state had to subsidise the recruitment and training costs incurred by the smallest firms.
A three-day weekend?
Another key question is which day employees would drop. Some firms experimenting with a four-day week have tried rotas, so that their office is still staffed for five days, but organising this with a smaller workforce may be more difficult.
Other firms with experience of four-day working warn against just operating with a three-day weekend. Customers are often eager to do business on Mondays and nervous about deadlines and delays on Fridays, they suggest, so a day off mid-week may be a better bet.
There are also likely to be some difficult conversations with staff, both about when they work and broader benefits. For example, while the basic idea of a four-day week is that staff would still receive the same levels of pay, they might see holidays reduced in line with their shorter working hours.
Nevertheless, Scotland is far from alone in considering making such fundamental changes. Spain, for example, has already begun trialling similar reforms. And if businesses decide they like the idea, they may move more quickly than governments. The authors of a new book, The Case for a Four Day Week, say the benefits are so compelling that employers will want to make the move of their own volition.
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/small-business/603307/should-you-move-your-business-to-a-four-day-week
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Three companies that are building a better world
How we live our lives and how we choose to invest our savings have typically been worlds apart. Happily, it has recently become possible to bring these two elements much closer together. There’s a growing number of listed companies that are working hard to understand their place in the world beyond simply generating profit.
Business leaders have a better chance of building strong foundations for equity returns when they understand that they can only deliver sustainable profits in the long term by respecting the environment in which they operate and the people their organisations affect. Positive impact as an investment strategy builds on this growing corporate self-awareness by championing companies that provide fixes to problems that will cost the planet more dearly in the future if left unattended.
Excitingly, opportunities to make such an impact are not limited to the well-known areas of green energy, but instead cover a broad spectrum of industries, including healthcare equipment, safety certification, education, infrastructure and agriculture. This breadth of opportunity gives impact funds an evergreen quality, making them an ideal building block for any long-term investor.
The leader in LED lighting
We often find attractive opportunities in established companies that are culturally pivoting towards the beneficial outcomes generated by their products. One example is Signify (Amsterdam: LIGHT) – the lighting giant spun out of Philips in 2016. The company combines industry leadership in the global shift to LED lighting with a corporate strategy focused on net-zero carbon emissions, zero waste to landfill and a portion of employees’ pay related to sustainability targets. This refreshed corporate culture has already generated impressive financial results, with the company developing an ability to surprise the market positively. While no longer as attractively valued as it was, Signify still offers a decent 3% dividend yield.
Greener ventilation
Another company enjoying rejuvenation by combining strong leadership with a deep focus on sustainability is Trane Technologies (NYSE: TT), which was spun out of Ingersoll Rand last year. Trane focuses on ventilation and refrigeration systems, which represent a combined 25% of global greenhouse-gas emissions. With the US government’s focus on better ventilation in public buildings, it’s seeing strong demand for its products. Trane now partly bases compensation of its 2,300 top executives on sustainability indicators. It has set a target of saving its customers a gigaton of carbon dioxide by 2030 through the use of its products.
Muck to brass
Recycling is a growing source of value for investors as a circular approach to natural resources displaces our traditionally linear model. This opportunity extends far beyond civic refuse processing. One example is Befesa (Frankfurt: BFSA). Its business is focused on the industrial recycling of hazardous waste generated in steel and aluminium manufacturing. Befesa’s process diverts toxic material entering landfill and its end products can be used in place of virgin ingredients in cement, ceramics and insulation. With a 50% market share in Europe and Asia, it is well set to dominate this area of industrial-waste processing.
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/603305/three-companies-that-are-building-a-better-world
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Strive Masiyiwa: the philanthropist who connected Africa
When Strive Masiyiwa fought in Zimbabwe’s highest court for the right to launch a mobile telecoms business – an application contested for five years by the then Mugabe government – he was armed with a “killer” stat, says the Financial Times: “70% of Africans had never heard a telephone ring”.
That was in 1993 and the rest, as they say, is history. By 2010, Masiyiwa was reporting that nearly 70% of Africans own a telephone – many of them tapping into networks provided by the company he founded, Econet Wireless.
A portfolio of directorships
The growth of Econet and its offshoots across Africa made Masiyiwa, now 60, very rich. When the FT caught up with him a decade ago, the stake he held in his Zimbabwean holding company was, at $345m, worth more than 10% of the local stock exchange.
A long-time exile from that country – he settled first in South Africa and then in London – Masiyiwa was last week named as the first black billionaire to make The Sunday Times’ Rich List, notes The Times.
But one suspects that officially joining the ranks of Britain’s super-rich is the least of his preoccupations. As the African Union’s special envoy on the pandemic, Masiyiwa is “trying to fix one of the planet’s most pressing problems”: sourcing vaccines for Africa’s 1.3-billion-strong population.
As one of Africa’s most prominent businessmen (albeit from afar), Masiyiwa is also much in demand on the boards of Western companies – his portfolio of directorships includes Unilever and Netflix. But it is his single-minded focus on improving individual lives on the continent that has set him apart.
As Fortune noted in 2017, “few people have shaped modern Africa as much as Masiyiwa” – whether battling to bust corrupt state monopolies or funding the education of Aids orphans. The thread that runs through his whole career is a deep-seated belief that “entrepreneurs like me… can use business to do good”.
Born in 1961, in what was then Rhodesia, Masiyiwa and his parents fled Ian Smith’s white-minority regime to neighbouring Zambia when he was a child. But from the age of 12, he was educated in the UK, says The Times. His “lioness mum” – whose business funded his school fees – had heard good reports of the Holt School, near Edinburgh, from a British neighbour.
After school, Masiyiwa studied electrical engineering at Cardiff University. In his 20s he returned to Zimbabwe, to take up a post at the state-owned telco ZPTC, but was quickly disillusioned by the bureaucracy and cronyism he found there. Ironically – given its implicit support of apartheid South Africa at the time – the institution that backed his first solo business in 1988 was Barclays.
An undeserved reputation
A clubbable man, Masiyiwa has always been adept at nurturing connections in high finance. Together with his absenteeism, and vast wealth, that has often proved a recipe for distrust in his native country. When President Emmerson Mnangagwa took power after the 2017 coup that overthrew Mugabe’s dictatorship, notes the FT, he pledged to be “open for business”.
But repeated abuses of power and corruption scandals have returned Zimbabwe to “international pariah status”. Inflation, which hit a peak of 837% in July 2020, is still running at around 194%. Masiyiwa points to his business investments in the country as evidence of his patriotism.
But, as journalist Hopewell Chin’ono reported on Nehanda Radio this week, news of his elevation to the UK Rich List prompted “the usual dark and unrestrained vitriol against him”. The message to Zimbabwe, he added, is that Masiyiwa is not the problem. “Give the brother a break!”
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/603312/strive-masiyiwa-the-philanthropist-who-connected-africa
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Russian Ruble is on the Rise
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/russian-ruble-is-on-the-rise-31052021"
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Dollar near 2-month high vs yen, Chinese yuan scales 3-year high
from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/dollar-near-2month-high-vs-yen-us-inflation-beats-expectations-2518988
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Market Update – May 31 – USD Holds gains
Market News Today – UK , US closed today. USD holds gains following Fridays PCE and PMI data. USDIndex closed Friday @90.00 down from 90.41 high and –1.34% for the month. US stocks closed flat on Friday (For April USA30 +1.94% & USA100 -1.53%) Global stocks start muted to the new week. Most Asian equities retreated after signs China’s econ recovery may be leveling out (PMI dipped) and JPY data was mixed, global inflation risks a concern. Bonds steady w/US 10y yields at 1.59%. Gold reclaims $1,904 and USOil trades at $66.65.
This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales, GDP and CPI & a rate decision from the RBA and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.
European Open – Virus developments remain in focus as recovery broaden but against the background of rising cost pressures. On the data front, the focus will be on preliminary inflation data for Germany and Spain, which are likely to show a further acceleration in headline rates. The German number is already above the ECB’s definition for price stability and likely to rise further, although for now base effects from energy prices remain the main driving factor, which allows the ECB to see through what it still expects to be a temporary overshoot.
Today – German regional & national CPIs.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.26%) up from Friday’s low at 0.7676 to move over 0.7000 into close and now trade at 0.7725. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55.25 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line from below. Stochs. rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
from HF Analysis /240934/
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Dollar Down, Signs of Slowdown in Chinese Economic Recovery
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Sunday, May 30, 2021
Key Economic Events and Reports for the Week Ahead
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UK-Australia trade deal could mean a shopping spree for British companies
Despite fierce resistance from the agricultural lobby, the UK looks set to sign a substantial free-trade agreement with Australia, and one that should be a template for deals across the rest of the world. Once that is completed, we should see a lot more trade between the two countries. But we might see something more important as well: a round of takeovers of Australian companies by British ones – because there are lots of tempting targets.
Snap up an airline or a bank
An Australian trade deal won’t, of course, be transformational. Its economy is not huge. With a GDP of $1.4trn, it is about 40% of the size of the UK, and far smaller than either the EU or the US. It is unlikely Australia will be selling us vast amounts of stuff, given the distance it will have to travel. Nor will we suddenly be selling vastly more products to them, for the same reason. It will be a decent market for British firms, yet hardly likely ever to be a crucial one.
Except, that is, in one sense. Right now, there are restrictions on foreign ownership across a range of industries, mainly because of worries that China might buy up the whole country if it was allowed to. A trade deal should remove all of those (if it doesn’t, it should be renegotiated). British businesses should therefore not just be looking at selling goods and services into the market, but at taking over companies there as well. There are five obvious targets to start with.
First, airlines. In line with many other countries, Australia places ownership restrictions on its main national airline. Perhaps that was understandable in the past. Countries used to think it was important to control routes into and out of the country and, in the wake of Covid-19, it is unlikely they will give up on that completely. Even so, a free-trade deal should make a takeover possible. If so, Qantas would surely be a natural target for IAG, which already owns British Airways and Iberia. That really would be a global airline.
Second, banking. Both Lloyds and Barclays need to find a way to grow and Australia has a successful but mainly local finance industry. National Australia Bank could potentially be a great fit for either of those, although HSBC might find its links to China made it an unwelcome suitor no matter how much it might like a base in Australia. Third, in infrastructure, Sydney Airport Holdings, with a value of slightly over £8bn, would be a great fit with BAA, with its airports across the UK: plenty of people would be flying from one of its hubs to the other. Fourth, in retailing, Woolworths might have long since disappeared from the high street on this side of the world, but it is still a huge business in Australia, where it is mainly a supermarket grocery chain. It would surely make a tempting target for Tesco, now that it has recovered sufficiently from its problems in the UK market for it to start expanding again, or even for Sainsbury’s or M&S. Finally, Australia has a surprisingly strong local pharmaceuticals and biotech industry. CSL might well prove a natural fit with GlaxoSmithKline or AstraZeneca.
Expect two-way traffic
There might well be some traffic in the other direction too. Lots of Australian entrepreneurs have built major businesses in the UK over the last few decades – Rupert Murdoch, for example. Its retailers and banks may well want to make acquisitions here. The important point is that the Australian and British economies are natural partners. They have similar legal structures and, perhaps more importantly, commercial cultures. British companies are likely to understand instinctively how an Australian business works and vice-versa. For a business from the UK looking to expand, Australia is a natural base and a springboard into the fast-growing Pacific. For Australian firms, the UK is a far bigger market than their own and while it is not the starting point for the European market it once was, it is still a hub for the Atlantic. Trade deals are often thought of as improving the flow of goods and services. The relaxation of ownership restrictions can often be far more important.
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/603302/uk-australia-trade-deal-shopping-spree
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Don’t count resources out
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