Sunday, June 6, 2021
China aims to slow yuan's rise but likely to avoid drastic steps - policy sources
from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/china-aims-to-slow-yuans-rise-but-likely-to-avoid-drastic-steps--policy-sources-2523401
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Friday, June 4, 2021
Events to Look Out for Next Week
- Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Gross Domestic Product should impede in Q1 and reveal headline growth of -4.8% y/y and -1.2% q/q, with external demand, capital expenditure and private consumption rising.
Tuesday – 08 June 2021
- Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German December ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 35 compared to 39 in November.
- Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Gross Domestic Product is seen stable at 12.6% growth in Q3 after the German Q3 GDP growth, released November 24, which was revised up to 8.5% (q/q, sa) in the final reading, from the 8.2% reported initially. It was an impressive bounce back from Q2’s -9.8% plunge, but the performance was not sufficient to compensate for the contraction that was triggered by lockdowns earlier in the year.
Wednesday – 09 June 2021
- Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – China’s recovery appears to be broadening, as a key manufacturing sentiment measure improved to its best level in three years during November while a non-manufacturing sentiment measure saw its best reading in eight years during November. CPI is expected to accelerate to a 0.8% y/y pace in November following the 0.5% growth last month.
- Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The reports so far are consistent with the ongoing recovery in Canada’s economy since the spring shutdown. Of course, the gain in November employment was the smallest monthly increase since hiring resumed in May, reflecting well anticipated moderation to a more sustainable pace as the reopening pop faded. However, the jobs and trade reports are consistent with no change in the BoC’s 0.25% rate setting expected at next week’s announcement, alongside a reiteration of the pledge to hold rates at 0.25% into 2023.
Thursday – 10 June 2021
Friday – 11 June 2021
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
from HF Analysis /242330/
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US & Canadian Jobs Day – Headlines Disappoint
USDCAD, H1
US nonfarm payrolls climbed 559,000 in May, falling a bit short of estimates, following increases of 278,000 (was 266,000) in April and 785,000 (was 770,000) in March for a net 27,000 upward revision.
The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%, as forecast, after edging up to 6.1% in April, and compares to 13.3% a year ago.
Average hourly earnings climbed another 0.5% following the 0.7% in April from -0.1% in March. On a 12-month basis, earnings surged to a 2.0% y/y pace from 0.4% y/y (was 0.3% y/y), though largely on base effects.
The workweek was steady at 34.9 hours (April revised from 35.0). The labour force declined -55,000 after rising 430,000 previously, with household employment increasing 444,000 after the prior 328,000 rise. Labour force participation dipped to 61.6% from 61.7%.
Private payrolls were up 492,000 (about half of the ADP’s 978,000 surge) from 219,000 (was 218,000). The goods sector added 3,000 jobs versus -36,000 (was -16,000) in April. Manufacturing jobs rebounded 23,000 from -32,000 (was -18,000). Construction jobs declined -20,000 from -5,000 (was unchanged) Employment in the service sector surged 489,000 versus the 255,000 (was 234,000) gain in April, with strength in leisure/hospitality, up 292,000, and education/health up 87,000. Government jobs fell -11,000 versus the prior 10,000 (was 48,000) gain.
Canada’s employment fell -68,000 in May following the -207,100 tumble in April, as the third wave of restrictions continued to weigh on the labour market. The drop was a bit larger than expected (-40,000) but well within the wide forecast range for this release.
The jobless rate ticked higher to 8.2% from 8.1%. Full time employment slipped -13,800 after a -129,400 plunge. Part time positions saw a -54,200 drop following the -77,800 contraction in April.
The average hourly wage rate of permanent employees, a BoC favourite, fell -1.4% y/y after the -1.6% y/y rate of decline in April. This measure turned negative in April amid the shift to difficult annual comparison. Meanwhile, long term unemployment held nearly steady at a near record high 478,000 in May, which is sure to be noted by the BoC. While increasing vaccination rates and the gradual unwind of restrictions should allow the labour market to resume improvement this year, the April and May reports are consistent with no more surprises from the BoC next week — steady policy and no additional cuts to the QE programme.
The USD weakened following the NFP data; overall USDCAD pushed under 1.2100 from Friday highs at 1.2132 to test down to 1.2085, but well above the low on Tuesday at 1.2006. The 20-day moving average sits at 1.2120. EURUSD up to 1.2170, USDJPY down to 109.60 and Cable rallied to 1.4198. Equity futures are firmer as USA500 moves to highs of the day at 4208.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
from HF Analysis /242419/
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Non-Farm Payroll – Live Analysis
Numerous labour market indicators are pointing to a solid gain for non-farm payrolls today, however there are still many distortions in the economy. The Dollar rallied yesterday following the strong round of US data, however, given the prevailing labour market anomalies, this report has limited potential to shift the needle significantly on the Fed tapering issue.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
from HF Analysis /242326/
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USDJPY, H1 is currently facing bearish pressure, potential drop if we break below 110.10.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h1-is-currently-facing-bearish-pressure-potential-drop-if-we-break-below-110-10"
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BTCUSD, H1 seeing strong bullish momentum
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h1-seeing-strong-bullish-momentum"
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Weekly Live Market & Trade Analysis
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/weekly-live-market-and-trade-analysis0406"
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Nikkei, H1 facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nikkei-h1-facing-bearish-pressure-potential-for-further-downside"
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Oil increases odds for CAD rally – Will jobs today do the same?
As explained in a recent article, the Canadian Dollar has been experiencing and is expected to continue experiencing an overall bullish movement for more than a year now.
The employment reports are the hot topic of the week, since after encouraging employment in the Eurozone and Germany, next on tap are US Non-Farm payrolls and the Canadian employment release. The latter however is expected to disappoint for May as the unemployment change is expected to increase. Canadian employment is projected to post a -40.0k drop for April amid increased restrictions as infections ramped higher, while the unemployment rate should come in at 8.2%.
Meanwhile, as few hours left before the release, USDCAD has extended the pair’s rebound to an 8-day high at 1.2128. The broadly stronger US Dollar and the approach of key labour market reports out of both the US and Canada have inspired profit taking/position trimming. This has overridden the influence of higher oil prices.
USOIL yesterday printed a 32-month high at $69.40 following EIA data, which marked a near 5% gain on the week thus far, and have since remain underpinned. The EIA inventory data which showed a 5.1 mln bbl fall in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 2.0 mln bbl draw, though the API reported a 5.4 mln bbl draw after the close on Tuesday. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 1.5 mln bbls actually rose 1.5 mln bbls, while distillate stocks were up 3.7 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 1.0 mln bbl increase. A neutral report overall.
Nonetheless, the spike higher remains supportive to oil correlating currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar. Crude markets have been underpinned by the OPEC+ group agreement this week to maintain production quotas — ie maintain supply at sub-capacity levels — despite improving global demand projections. As for the Canadian jobs data, it is likely to contrast the US jobs report, which is likely to paint a more robust picture, although there are still pandemic-era anomalies that are curtailing labour supply. Canada also released Q1 productivity and the April Ivey PMI reports. Hence the overall bullish outlook for the Canadian Dollar in the bigger-picture remains with or without a beat on jobs data today, given the success of Covid vaccinations and ramping-up global supply capacity for vaccine production, which along with massive global stimulus should keep the global reflation trade on track into 2022.
If the Canadian labor report misses forecasts and we see USDCAD extending higher then immediate Resistance levels fall at the May’s highs, at 1.2145, 1.2180 and 1.2193 (200-period EMA in 4-hour). Further buying pressure above this level could lift the asset to 50-DMA at 1.2280.
On the contrary, an encouraging jobs report could benefit Loonie against Greenback, and could drive USDCAD to the mid of 2-week’s range, at 1.2070 (also 20-period SMA at 4-our chart). A break below the latter could retest the 1.2000 psychological level which provides strong support, though sell-stops are reported parked under the figure. A break there would bring the May 2015 low of 1.1920 and 2013 highs into view.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
from HF Analysis /242325/
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The Crude Chronicles - Episode 92
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crude-chronicles-episode-92"
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FOMO Friday: Crude Jumps 5%
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-crude-jumps-5"
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What's driving the surge in food prices and what are the knock-on effects?
We've been talking a lot about inflation in the past few months. For most, the jury is still out as to just how troublesome and persistent inflation will be.
However, one set of prices is already rising at double-digit rates. And it's in a category with probably more potential than any other to cause political and social upheaval.
We're talking about food prices...
What's behind the surge in food prices?
Food prices are rising at their fastest rate since 2011. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation's (FAO) monthly food price index, prices in May were up an extraordinary 40% on the year before.
The food price index is a composite of five other indices measuring different food groups: cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar. They're all a lot higher than they were a year ago, vegetable oils in particular (biodiesel is a big culprit here).
As Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart and Emiko Terazono report in the FT, the cost of everything you need to make a cooked breakfast has gone up sharply – coffee, milk, sugar, wheat, oats and orange juice are up by nearly 30% on 2019 levels. The price of pork is up more than 50%.
A number of factors are driving the surge. Weather is obviously a huge issue in food production and a drought in Brazil has been partly to blame for some higher prices, though this has been offset somewhat by better conditions in the US and EU.
But in terms of the overall problem, it's mostly down to coronavirus-related disruption.
The pressure on supply chains has affected production and distribution of food. It's become more expensive to grow and more expensive to ship around the world. Governments have also been stockpiling grains during the pandemic, notes the FT. And then there's the re-opening factor: as the restaurant trade opens up again, that will result in more demand.
In all, says Abdolreza Abbassian of the FAO, the system is looking fragile: "We have very little room for any production shock. We have very little room for any unexpected surge in demand in any country."
The good news – in the longer run – is that the cure for high prices is high prices. When farmers see that prices are high they will want to plant as much as they can, and in turn that will bring prices down in time. It's also much quicker to shift agricultural resources than it is to find a new seam of copper or tin, for example.
So from a specific investment point of view, the most practical way to invest for rising food prices is to invest in the equipment that farmers will be buying as they gear up to grow more of the stuff.
However, it's fair to say that agricultural equipment stocks have come a very long way in the last year. John Deere's share price has more than doubled in the past year, and has tripled from its low in March 2020. It's trading on a price/earnings ratio of 24, which looks steep.
At a glance, potash and fertiliser companies look more promising – Mosaic is one option to investigate further if you're interested. (There are ways to trade the prices of agricultural commodities directly but it's a high-risk area and not worth bothering with unless you already know what you're doing).
How food prices impact on the bigger picture
However, that's the longer run. In the shorter run, a bigger concern for us all - including investors - might be the potential impact of food price inflation on the bigger picture environment.
The consumer price indices that developed world central banks pay the most attention to ignore things like food and energy prices. It's easy to mock this, but there is a reasonable rationale behind it. Such prices are prone to spikes and slumps, and so they make the data noisy.
However, it's one thing when we're seeing minor cyclical variations. It's another when we're seeing the sorts of persistent price surges that can have real world consequences.
Surges in the prices of food and fuel might be the sort of thing that central banks "look through". But they are profoundly disruptive in a way that other forms of inflation simply aren't.
Higher food prices aren't as politically incendiary in developed nations as higher fuel prices are, simply because they account for a much smaller proportion of most people's spending.
But they are a very serious issue in developing nations, and you don't have to look very far back to see examples. Rising food prices were definitely a contributing factor to global unrest in both 2008 and in the "Arab Spring" protests of 2010 and 2011.
China is particularly sensitive – soaring food price inflation is widely viewed as a major driving force of the protests in 1989 that led to the Tiananmen Square massacre. In a recent piece for Gavekal, Louis-Vincent Gave notes that this is likely one reason why China has been allowing the renminbi to rise so sharply in recent months - to help keep a lid on inflation.
For now, it's just something to keep an eye on. But it's another factor that may well push emerging economies to end up raising interest rates more quickly, and pushing them higher, than they otherwise would have. We'll have more on the potential consequences of this in a future issue of MoneyWeek magazine (get your first six issues free here if you aren't yet a subscriber).
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/inflation/603338/whats-driving-the-surge-in-food-prices-and-what-are-the-knock-on-effects
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Market Spotlight: Trading The NFP
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-the-nfp"
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Mayssa Al Midani: agritech, nutrition and climate change – feeding the world while caring for the planet
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/603324/mayssa-al-midani-agritech-nutrition-and-climate-change
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