Jim Mellon: What I'm buying now – UK stocks, agtech and commodities

Jim Mellon tells Merryn which UK stocks he likes (and which ones he doesn't), why the future of meat is lab-grown, and why you should definitely have some oil in your portfolio.

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Wine of the week: an epic new wine from Italy

2019 Donna Elvira, Fink Fiano di Avellino, Campania, Italy

£18, campaniawines.co.uk

Wine samples arrive thick and fast every day and they usually come from importers, distributors, wineries and merchants I already know. Occasionally, bottles appear from new discoveries and, because of the short lead times at MoneyWeek, I can get them on the page in a trice. From Sarah Fink’s first email introduction, via samples, tasting, research, checking and filing copy to these wines appearing here today has taken less than a month. This means you are hot on my heels in making these epic discoveries.

My lead wine, a fiano, is terrific, accurate, exotic, bitingly fresh and genuinely rewarding. I adore this stone-fruit-kissed variety and it sums up an Italian summer perfectly. There are three more beauties to recommend: the 2019 Donna Elvira, Fringilla Falanghina (£15) shows accurate fruit and herb notes and bracing freshness, underpinned by a volcanic tang and steely acidity; the 2019 Donna Elvira, Aegidius Greco di Tufo (£18) is calmer than the other two whites and more lemony in its theme; and a true rarity, the 2018 Donna Elvira, Settemazze Aglianico (£18), a delicious red made from a particularly obtuse, indigenous grape variety that, in the wrong hands, makes some of the driest and most tannic wines around. At Donna Elvira, it is juicy, smooth, intriguing, cherry-and liquorice-soaked and the polite astringency only arrives at the very end of the finish. What a line-u

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Genesis G80: the Korean upstart taking on the German carmakers

Genesis, the luxury division of South Korean carmaker Hyundai, is a relatively new premium car brand, says Richard Aucock on City AM. It successfully launched in the US and South Korea and has now expanded to the UK. There was a “sort-of” launch back in 2015, but “this time around, [it] is much more serious”. The G80 is the brand’s first executive saloon and comes with either a 2.2-litre diesel or 2.5-litre turbo petrol engine, and in a choice of trims: Premium Line, from £37,460 as a diesel, or the Luxury Line from £47,950. What stands out is “the finesse of the drive” – “quiet, easy, precise and stress-free”. 

The G80 is snapping at the heels of the class-leading BMW 5 Series, says Steve Fowler on AutoExpress, seeking to rival the German brand “on quality and class” and offering some new technology that has yet to make it into any BMW. The 5 Series remains the best car of its type, but Genesis has managed to create “the best non-German model in the executive-saloon sector”. The G80 looks the part more than any other recent arrival in its class, with “just the right amount of chrome and high-quality paint finish that make it look as posh as any rival… The best compliment we can pay the car is that it feels very Germanic”.

It’s a car “you can really drive on the nose” too, says Phil McNamara in Car magazine, “surging into corners and relying on the plentiful front-end grip to haul you through”. The eight-speed automatic transmission “whips through the gears smoothly”, the steering is responsive, “jinking the saloon left-right to swerve round cyclists” with aplomb, and the braking is “alert”, delivering “meaty stopping power”.  

Ex-Bentley and Lamborghini design chief Luc Donckerwolke “pulled out all the stops when designing the G80”, says Kristen Lee on The Drive. The previous model “erred on the polite side of bland”, but the new and improved version is “a lot more memorable and striking” as well as “absolutely a joy to live with”. Some cars are built “expressly for sportiness”, but the new G80 is a “rolling testament to luxury”. Whether on the highway or in town, the ride is “incredibly smooth”: “you can barely feel the transmission shifting and the brakes grab progressively and predictably”. The car would “certainly be fine” on back roads too, but overall the G80 is a “highly capable cruiser” that prioritises comfort. And despite the “punchy” performance – the 2.5-litre turbo delivers 304bhp and whisks the car from rest to 62mph in just six seconds – “behind the wheel of the Genesis, there’s little urge to rush anywhere in particular because it’s just such a nice spot to sit”.

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Go on a surfing safari in Britain

Tsurigasaki Beach in Japan will host the inaugural surfing event at the Olympics next month, more than a century after legendary surfer Duke Kahanamoku first asked the Olympic Committee to include the sport, says The Daily Telegraph. Located around 40 miles east of Tokyo, in the town of Ichinomiya, Chiba Prefecture, the scenic beach is a training ground for Japan’s professional surfers, known for its consistency in surf conditions. But surfing fans don’t have to head to Asia to hit the waves. Britain, too, is home to some great surf spots.

Strictly for professionals

The Cribbar

One of the most famous is at The Cribbar, says Jonathan Morris for BBC News. Top surfers come from miles around to ride the 40ft waves near Fistral Beach in Newquay, Cornwall, which are created by the water moving over a scattering of reefs off Towan Head. Only the right combination of wind and swell brings them to life a few times a year. So strong are the currents that surfers have to paddle constantly lest they find themselves in a dangerous zone where waves are breaking off the rocks. “The Cribbar is definitely not for the inexperienced,” bodyboarder Rob Barber tells Morris. “There are a few different reefs there, so the waves can sort of stand up on some reefs and then sort of mutate and gurgle into these evil beasts.” The Headland, a luxury Victorian clifftop hotel, costs from around £325 a night in September, see headlandhotel.co.uk. 

The surf capital of Wales

© Adventure Parc Snowdonia

Surf Snowdonia is a lake nestled in the Welsh hills where man-made 3ft-high waves roll in every 90 seconds, says Rachel Mills in The Daily Telegraph. Learners can choose a zone according to ability, with the biggest waves closest to the central pier, or simply book a lesson to hone their skills. The fun continues on land with on-site glamping and a cosy bar overlooking the lagoon (adventureparcsnowdonia.com). Alternatively, on the south coast, Rhossili Bay, with its low-key atmosphere on the Gower Peninsula,is the “surf capital of Wales”. The waves here are “eminently rideable”, peaking all along the three-mile beach. “Be sure to stick around to watch the sunset blazing across the iconic Worm’s Head.” For lodges at Hillend campsite, see hillendcamping.com; for lessons, see surfschool.wsf.wales.

Sleep in a wave

Carnish Cabins, Lewis

Cliff Bay and Mangersta Bay, on the Isle of Lewis in the Outer Hebrides, offer excellent breaks for experienced surfers, says Jade Bremner in The Independent. Just watch out for rip currents. Nearby, at “the wild and pristine Uig Bay”, the “white sand is offset by deep green hills and piercing blue water”. “Fall asleep to the sound of the surf inside a cosy Carnish Cabin, designed in the shape of a wave.” Keep an eye out for sea otters, dolphins and harmless basking sharks in the waters, and for wild deer roaming the coastline. Cabins for two cost from £595 for seven nights, carnishcabins.co.uk.

Glamping in Bristol

The Wave, Bristol

“While I don’t recall the Beach Boys ever singing about the north-west suburbs of Bristol… here we are… watching swarms of wetsuit-clad men and women carve their way along a seemingly endless succession of perfect turquoise waves,” says Guy Adams in the Daily Mail. “The Wave is a giant pool shaped like a pizza slice, where a reverberating machine can churn out a thousand... rideable waves every single hour.” There’s now even a “posh” glamping facility, called The Camp, which is close enough to the lake “to hear the never-ending whoops and hollers”. Tents for up to eight from £105 a night, thewave.com.

Surfing for warriors

© Pixel Youth movement / Alamy

Storms cartwheeling across Scotland in the autumn and winter months send swells southwards to Cayton Bay in Yorkshire, creating waves as good as any of the “celebrated waves of Cornwall”, says James Stewart in The Sunday Times. “It’s as sketchy as it sounds [and] best left to a band of jovial local warriors who laugh in the face of freezing seas and limb-threatening shallows.” However, the horseshoe bay is beautiful, boasting a “soul-uplifting beach”. There are also a couple of safer places to surf and the “nice folk” at Scarborough Surf School provide lessons. See scarboroughsurfschool.co.uk.

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Properties for sale for around £400,000

St-Fraigne, Charente, France.

St-Fraigne, Charente, France. A former watermill at the end of a quiet lane close to the River Osme. It has beamed ceilings, an open fireplace, a country kitchen with an Aga, and comes with a private guest house in the grounds. 5 beds, 7 baths, receps, garage, outbuildings, swimming pool. £358,000 Hamptons International 020-7265 6571.

Green Lane, Hinton Charterhouse, Bath, Somerset.

Green Lane, Hinton Charterhouse, Bath, Somerset. A Grade II-listed cottage dating from 1700 in a quiet area of a popular village. It has beamed ceilings, an inglenook fireplace with a wood-burning stove and a newly fitted kitchen and conservatory. 2 beds, 2 baths, recep, cottage garden. £425,000 Fine & Country 01225-320032.

Niel Gow Cottage, Dunkeld, Perthshire

Niel Gow Cottage, Dunkeld, Perthshire. This B-listed traditional stone and slate cottage was originally two cottages and dates from the 1700s. It has a blue plaque on the exterior commemorating the fiddler Niel Gow, who lived here from 1727 to 1807. It has a large living room with an open fireplace and a country kitchen with an Aga. 3 beds, 2 baths, 2 receps, office/bed 4, parking, garden, 0.47 acres. £385,000+ Savills 01738-477525.

High Street, Bulford, Salisbury, Wiltshire.

High Street, Bulford, Salisbury, Wiltshire. A renovated, semi-detached, three-storey cottage in a gated mews that includes three houses on the banks of the River Avon. The ground floor living area has bi-fold doors leading onto the riverside gardens and the master bedroom has a Juliet balcony. 2 beds, 2 baths, recep, kitchen, utility, cloakroom, garage, parking, river frontage. £400,000+ Hamptons 01722-480142.

Iris Cottage, Singleton, Chichester, West Sussex.

Iris Cottage, Singleton, Chichester, West Sussex. This Grade II-listed cottage dates back to around 1550. The cottage retains many of its original period features, including exposed beams, brick floors, and in the open-plan living/dining room there is an inglenook fireplace that still has its original bread oven. The enclosed front garden looks out towards the village church. 3 beds, bath, study area, breakfast kitchen. £425,000 Jackson-Stops 01243-786316.

Shippen, Hope Cove, Devon.

Shippen, Hope Cove, Devon. A two-bedroom apartment in a period property set just 70 yards from the beach, with views out towards Bigbury Bay. The flat has access to a communal sun terrace, which is perfect for outdoor dining, and to communal gardens. 2 beds, kitchen, bath, recep. £425,000 Marchand Petit 01548-844473.

St. Ann Street, Salisbury.

St. Ann Street, Salisbury. A Grade II-listed end-of-terrace house dating from 1680 in the centre of the city. It has exposed ceiling beams, leaded-light windows, a brick inglenook fireplace with a wood-burning stove, a recently fitted kitchen and a dining room with skylights, which has been extended and opens onto the enclosed garden. 3 beds, 2 baths, 2 receps, kitchen, walled garden with rear access. £400,000 Myddelton & Major 01722-337575.

Rook House, Cuddy Lonning, Wigton, Cumbria.

Rook House, Cuddy Lonning, Wigton, Cumbria. A Grade II-listed Georgian house 15 minutes’ walk from the town centre. The house was built in 1826 as a Quaker school and has a one-bedroom annex that shares a roof with an adjacent house that was once also part of the school. It has sash windows with shutters and period fireplaces. 4 beds, bath, 3 receps, study, breakfast kitchen, mezzanine, gardens, summerhouse, parking. £425,000+ Fine & Country 01768-869007.

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Market Update – July 02

Wall Street was narrowly mixed again overnight, as investors sat on their hands ahead of the upcoming June jobs report. Data on ISM manufacturing, jobless claims, and construction spending was ignored in favor of the more crucial employment numbers on the horizon.

Also yesterday, according to FT, the world’s leading economies have signed up to a plan to force multinational companies to pay a global minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15% following intense negotiations in Paris at the OECD. The historic agreement among 130 countries will ensure the largest companies, including Big Tech, pay at least $100bn a year more in taxes, with more of that money going to the countries where they do most of their business.

The USA500 did manage another record high, with the USA30 in the green too as value shares were favored. The USA100 was largely flat. Stock markets in Japan and Australia managed to move slightly higher, though, while China bourses sold off with some commentators suggesting that the conclusion of the centennial celebrations for the Communist Party meant increased risks for markets.

In Europe, core exchanges rose, with the UK100 adding 1.25%, and the GER30 rallying 0.47%. Comments from ECB’s Lagarde suggesting that the current cap on dividends and share buybacks for banks could be lifted at the end of September helped underpin sentiment. Also:

• Fed’s Harker (non-voter) backs tapering.
• ECB’s Weidmann backs symmetrical inflation target for the ECB.

Dovish comments from BoE’s Bailey, who stuck to the view that inflation will be transitory, added support, although they didn’t prevent Gilts from underperforming versus Bunds, with the former up 1.4 bps to 0.728%, with the latter 0.7 bps higher at -0.203%. Hopes that the impact of the rapidly spreading Delta variant won’t prevent the projected re-opening of holiday travel while also keeping central banks in supportive mode, helped peripheral stock and bond markets.

Forex Market: USDIndex edged up to 92.60, and USDJPY is at 111.65, while the USOIL future is at $75.22per barrel. The Australian and NZ Dollars hold at Q4 2020 lows, while the EUR slipped to 1.1834 from 1.1888. Gold sustains gains at 1779 area.

As Soc Gen accurately notes, US 2y2y rates are driving the dollar. “The challenge for the FX market is that with no rate on the cards for over 12 months, expectations about what the Fed will do are bound to move around with each and every major economic statistic. All eyes, then, are on payroll data and if they come in strong, the dollar bears are going to get squeezed.”

Today’s Calendar – ECB’s Lagarde is scheduled to speak today, but likely to repeat the familiar line that the crisis is not over and support still necessary. At the same time we will see US labor market data.

US nonfarm payrolls preview: nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 550k in June following increases of 559k in May and 278k in April as there continues to be a big gap between the strength in the recovery and the record high in job opening against the relatively slow return of workers amid various headwinds. We’re also forecasting 35k jump in factory jobs. The work-week should hold steady at 34.9 while hours worked picks up 0.4%. The unemployment rate is seen dipping to 5.6%. Average hourly earnings are projected rising 0.2% as minimum wage workers have been slow to come back. However, the y/y wage gain should surge to 3.5% from 2.0%, with a big boost from base effects.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, July 2, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, July 2, 2021 Overnight Headlines Dollar's near-term outlook bright, but to fade in a year- Reuters poll • U.S. labor market recovery gaining steam; worker shortages an obstacle • U.S. employment likely accelerated in June as companies boost perks for workers • Vaccinations aiding jobs recovery in food, hotel sector: Fed study • U.S. House approves $715 bln infrastructure bill • U.S. CBO doubles growth forecast to 7.4%; sees slight drop in federal deficit • IMF raises U.S. 2021 growth forecast to 7%, assumes Biden spending plans pass • Foreign CB US debt holdings -$17.637 bln to $3.522 tln Jun 30 week • Treasuries -$17.402 bln to $3.081 tln, agencies -226 mln to $351.954 bln • 30 countries back global minimum corporate tax of 15% • China shares slip after Party's party, others firm ahead of U.S. jobs data • OPEC+ delays meeting to Friday as UAE objects to new oil deal • Australia to halve arrivals from overseas, offers COVID-19 exit roadmap • In boost to Starmer, Labour wins election reprieve in north England Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT) • 09:00 EZ May Producer Prices MM, 1.2% f'cast, 1.0% prev; YY, 9.5% f'cast, 7.6% prev Looking Ahead – Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT) • N/A Greece FM Christos Staikouras at Delphi economic conference • 07:00 BoS Gov Cos at Climate conference • 09:00 ECB Andrea Enria at MEF lecture • 12:30 ECB Lagarde in panel discussion • 16:10 Irish CB DepGov Donnery speaks in online eventG10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby)EUR/USD 1.1750 (1.12BLN), 1.1800-05 (730M), 1.1820-25 (1.8BLN). 1.1850-55 (2.7BLN), 1.1865 (1.0BLN), 1.1875 (413M), 1.1885 (500M), 1.1890-00 (2.36BLN), 1.1915 (1.1BLN), 1.1940 1.2BLN), 1.1950 (2.5BLN)USD/JPY 110.75-80 (1.6BLN), 111.00 (2.0BLN), 111.40-50 (1.78BLN), 111.75 (1.9BLN), 112.00 (478M)AUD/USD 0.7400 (755M), 0.7500 (463M), 0.7540 (328M), 0.7600 (365M), 0.7625 (500M)EUR/JPY 132.20 (420M)NZD/USD 0.7000-10 (700M)AUD/NZD 1.0700 (300M)GBP/USD 1.3750 (364M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.21 Bullish aboveConsolidates at lows heading into US jobs • EUR/USD opened at 1.1850 and traded in a 1.1840/52 range in Asia • Market is looking ahead to US payrolls later today for next lead • EUR/USD havering above the 76.4 of the 1.1704/1.2266 move at 1.1836 • A break below 1.1835 targets the 21021 low at 1.1704 • Market is positioned for a strong US non-farm payroll result • There is a risk that USD longs may pare back unless data beats estimates • EUR/USD trending lower with resistance at 10-day MA at 1.1902GBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.4080 Bullish above.USD belief firms, but key support holds into US jobs • +0.05% in a 1.3752-1.3774 range with plenty of interest in Asia • Economists optimistic on USD short term, but bearish later • Positive USD sentiment, with the market not yet long likely caps cable • Charts; daily momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages fall • 21 day Bollinger bands slide – a strong bearish trending setup • 10 DMA capped repeatedly, and pivotal is resistance, currently at 1.3871 • 1.3756, 61.8% of the 2021 rise is proving resilient – held in Asia • Downtrend targets a test of 1.3669 double bottom in March and AprilUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 108 targeting 112Consolidates more gains, quiet pre-US NFP • USD/JPY does little in Asia, 111.54-66 EBS, consolidate o/n gains again • Little interest ahead of key US NFP/jobs report tonight, +690K eyed (median) • Massive nearby option expiries again help contain action • 111.00 strike $2 bln, 111.40-50 total $1.8 bln, 111.75 $1.9 bln • Bull coming out of hibernation again, eye 111.71 March '20 high test soon • Break projects test of 112.00, 112.23 February '20 high • JPY crosses steady too with risk more on than off, Nikkei +0.3% @28,791AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7790 bullish aboveRetains heavy tone ahead of US payrolls • AUD/USD opened 0.37% lower at 0.7471 after USD moved broadly higher • In a quiet Asian session it slipped down to 0.7461 at one stage • Heading into the afternoon it is trading around 0.7465 • There isn't any support until the 61.8 of the 0.6990/0.8007 move at 0.7378 • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.7536 and break would ease the pressure • AUD/USD likely to remain heavy until the US non-farm payrolls later today

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-july-2-2021"
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Dollar Edges Lower; Tone Still Supportive Ahead of Payrolls

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USDJPY approaching Pivot, potential for short term bounce

USDJPY is approaching Pivot, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension, where we could see a short term bounce and further upside towards 1st Resistance, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Price is also holding above the moving average support, in line with our bullish bias.

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Dollar Up, Gains Ground on Positive Data but Asian Currencies Under Pressure

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Dollar rides high to U.S. jobs test

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/dollar-rides-high-to-us-jobs-test-2548309
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Dollar to Run of Out of Steam as Job Gains Could Fall Short

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Live Analysis – US Open

Same Song Or The Great Reopen? – Join our Analyst Andria for an overview of the markets positioning as we enter the new Quarter.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /249258/
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Market Spotlight: Trading US ISM Manufacturing

US ISM Manufacturing Up NextThe US ISM manufacturing reading is on deck today. In the wake of the June FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed revising higher its dot plot forecasts and upgrading its economic forecasts, US data as taken on greater importance. USD short positioning has been unwinding steadily since the FOMC though there is still plenty of upside scope in positioning given the extended USD sell off over Q2.Looking ahead to the data then, the market is looking for a reading of 61.0, slightly lower than the 61.2 seen last month. Given the slightly lower expectations, however, there Is plenty of room for a spike higher in USD should the data surprise to the upside.Where to Trade US Manufacturing?EURUSDThe downturn lower in EURUSD has seen the market trading back within the bearish channel from yearly highs, with the subsequent retest of the channel top providing resistance. Price is now sitting on support at the 1.1844 level, a break of this level will open the way for a move down to the 1.1719 level next, in line with the bearish MACD and RSI readings.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-us-ism-manufacturing"
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