JPMorgan Blames Turkey’s Volatile Lira for Investor Misgivings

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Market Spotlight: Trading US ADP Employment

US ADP Up NextThe main data focus for today’s US session will be the ADP employment figure. With the reading often used as proxy for gauging the NFP release to follow, today’s data holds the potential to create plenty of market volatility if we see any significant surprise.Consensus forecasts for the release are focusing on the 695k figure, which would mark an uptick from the prior 692k reading. However, given that USD has fallen from favour recently, it would likely take a very strong reading to cause an upside shift ahead of the NFP release on Friday.Where to Trade the Release?GBPUSDFollowing the downside break of 1.3676, the pair has since reversed sharply and is now close to seeing a breakout above the 1.3997 level. This has been a key level for the pair this year and a move back above the level would be a firm bullish development. With MACD and RSI supporting, any USD weakness today could see the pair back above 1.3997, putting the focus on 1.4248 as an initial target.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-us-adp-employment"
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What Can We Expect on the ADP Report Today? Medium-Term Analysis of NZUSD

The NZD rose nearly half a percent against greenback after data released Wednesday showed that New Zealand's unemployment rate returned to the record low level that it was at before the virus outbreak. The share of unemployed fell from 4.6% to 4.0% in July, well ahead of the modestly positive forecast of 4.4%. Wage growth rate advanced to the highest level in 13 years, which indicates a strong increase in pro-inflationary risks and likely to prompt a hawkish intervention of the Central Bank. The RBNZ is expected to raise the rate at the upcoming meeting, however, the upside potential of the NZD is far from being exhausted. Especially as there is a risk of a large rate hike by 50 bp at once, as well as the risk that the Central Bank will not rule out the possibility of more rate hikes, which could form sustainable bullish sentiment on the NZD.From the point of view of technical analysis, the bullish scenario for the NZD can be supported by the following observations. On the weekly NZDUSD chart, we can see a wedge pattern; the formation of which began at the end of last year and continues today. The wedge has a negative slope relative to the main bullish trend, therefore it can be considered as a trend continuation formation. On a larger scale, the idea of a trend continuation looks even more plausible because the multi-year peaks are still far away:In the past few weeks, NZDUSD has been indecisive, which can be concluded from the shape of weekly candlesticks that had long tails and small bottoms - intra-week fluctuations were characterized by both up and down movements with a slight advantage for sellers:The bounce from the lower bound of the pattern two weeks ago and expectations regarding RBNZ decision which warrant sustainable upside sentiment suggest that bulls may venture a test of the upper bound of the pattern in the area of 0.7150-0.7170 in the coming weeks.On Wednesday, the dollar is trying to maintain the edge ahead of release of the first batch of labor market data for July - ADP report and ISM report on activity in the services sector. The situation in the manufacturing sector, as shown by a series of data earlier this week (ISM, factory orders, equipment spending) suggests contribution of the sector to the growth of payrolls in July likely beat forecast. However, the share of employed in mfg. sector in the total employment is relatively small, so the ISM report in non-manufacturing sector is much more important in preparing for the NFP. Employment in services sector is now highly subject to fluctuations induced by swings in consumer mobility and social restrictions. Let’s be careful here, since it was in July that the incidence of Covid-19 began to rise in the United States:Correlation of covid daily cases growth with severity social restrictions is gradually weakening, but this process is slow, so rising incidence in the US in July could still have a drag on creation of jobs due to the pressure on services sector. A negative surprise in ADP and ISM is likely to trigger a wave of dollar sales as it would become more difficult to expect a strong NFP, which is the key report for predicting the Fed's policy move in August.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/what-can-we-expect-on-the-adp-report-today-medium-term-analysis-of-nzusd"
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Working from home? Make sure you claim everything you can

Hundreds of thousands of Britons are self-isolating after being pinged by the NHS Covid-19 app. One silver lining is that those who are working from home (WFH) could be in line to claim up to £140 of tax relief. 

Employees have always been allowed to claim back a tax rebate for costs such as higher heating and telephone bills if they are required by their employer to work from home. Claiming used to be a slightly fiddly process that required a P87 form. But stop-start lockdowns have forced the government to simplify the procedure to forestall administrative headaches. 

Last October, HMRC launched a specialised microservice that enables taxpayers to claim relief in minutes without submitting evidence of higher bills. It can be accessed via www.gov.uk/tax-relief-for-employees/working-at-home. You will need a government gateway ID to use the service. The portal updates your PAYE tax code so that your employer deducts less tax from your salary each month. 

The relief you can claim on without providing evidence of your extra costs is £6 a week. A few companies have already paid it as a tax-free allowance to employees to cover WFH expenses, but as times are hard most have opted not to. If the latter applies to you then you can claim relief on the extra costs you have incurred. Standard-rate taxpayers are eligible for a rebate of £1.20 per week (20% of £6), making £62.40 per year. For higher-rate payers the annual relief is worth £124.80 per year, while additional-rate payers get £140.40. Over two years that means it is possible to receive as much as £280 in relief.  

For the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 tax years it is possible to claim relief for the whole year even if you did not work from home every week. Those who work from home for part of the week are also eligible. 

You must have been required to work from home; you are not eligible if you chose to do so. You must also declare that your costs have increased as a result (they almost certainly will have owing to higher energy and water consumption). This is an individual benefit, so couples and flatmates can each make a claim provided they meet the criteria. 

Remember to claim again 

If you do self-assessment then you are still eligible for the full-year rebate, but cannot claim via the portal: instead you must make the claim when you next fill in your return. Self-employed people are not affected as they already claim for work-related expenses when they do self-assessment. It is possible to backdate a claim by up to four years if you haven’t already made one (note that the weekly flat rate before April 6 2020 was £4). HMRC has already received more than three  million claims for the 2020/2021 tax year. If you have already claimed for last year, remember to do so again for the current tax year (which began on 6 April) if you qualify. 

Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that 38% of working adults were working from home at least part of the time in late April 2021, but only about 800,000 people have so far claimed for the current year. 

If you have incurred significantly more than £6 a week in extra costs it is worth claiming for those too, but you will have to go through the more burdensome process of filling in a P87 form and providing receipts to prove it. Note that if you are an employee then only variable costs are counted; you cannot include a contribution towards rent or mortgage payments. 

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/tax/603626/working-from-home-make-sure-you-claim-everything-you-can
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Market Spotlight: EURUSD Breakout Update

EURUSD Breakout In PlayThe EURUSD breakout trade from the 1.1840 level is still in play here. Following the initial breakout above the level, momentum has waned on approach to the bearish trend line. However, with MACD and RSI both bullish still, the focus is on a continuation higher while the market sits atop 1.1840, keeping 1.1961 in sight as the initial target.Key Data to WatchToday’s US services PMI and APD employment numbers will be the key releases to watch. While both readings are expected to mark an improvement on the prior month, there is room for disappointment, should either release underwhelm forecasts. The headline focus, however, will be on the US labour reports due on Friday. Once again, if there is any disappointment with Friday’s data this will create for further upside in the pair.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-eurusd-breakout-update"
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Earnings report Aug. 5: Moderna and Siemens

Moderna, Inc. ( #Moderna ), one of the first companies to produce the mRNA vaccine approved for emergency use, was one of the first companies to produce a Covid-19 vaccine. The company’s vaccine has already been administered to millions, and. it has contracts to supply hundreds of millions more doses  to countries around the world. The company is expected to report its quarterly results ending June 2021 on August 5, before the market opens.

The Zacks forecast  expects Moderna’s sales in the latest quarter at $4.29 billion, higher than the same quarter a year ago, with sales of just $66.35 million, representing a jump of more than 6368.43%. The quarter’s return on equity is expected to be $6.01,  2,038.71% higher than the prior-year quarter ($-0.31 per share).

Vaccinations had begun to slow down in major economies, but as a result of the return of the outbreak of the Delta variant, demand for effective boosters continues. According to the Financial Times, both Moderna and Pfizer have agreed to deliver 2.1 billion doses of the vaccine through 2023 to the EU. After the three phase trials, Moderna and Pfizer were found to be more efficient, and so although Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson are cheaper, Moderna’s higher demand meant they was able to raise the EU dosing price from $22.60 to $25.50, but below the $28.50 previously. Moderna is estimated to have made $30 billion in vaccine sales.

Meanwhile, the EU aims to vaccinate at least 70% of the adult population by the end of September. Israel will begin offering a third shot to those over the age of 60 who are already vaccinated against COVID-19 on Sunday, while UK will start next month.

Since the beginning of the year, Moderna’s share price has risen  231.78% with a new all-time high yesterday above 365.00, before dropping to close at 346.94.  Meanwhile the Day time frame sees RSI in the overbought zone and moving down. While smaller timeframes like H1 and H4 show a bearish divergence, that means prices may have been shortened prior to the earnings report date. If the report is not good, there may be a continued decline, with an important support line at the 300.00 psychological zone.

Siemens AG ( #Siemens ) is a German industrial giant – one of the largest in Europe – and is another company scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on Thursday before the market opens. The Zacks sales forecast for the quarter is $17.98 billion higher than the $14.85 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. It represents a growth rate of 33.87%, while the return per share is expected to be $0.83, above the $0.62 the prior year quarter.

Bloomberg reported in June that Siemens had announced a 3 billion euro ($3.6 billion) share buyback plan running from next year to 2026. The company also said it was targeting an acquisition to enter a new market, having agreed to pay $700 million to acquire American company SupplyFrame Inc., a digital platform company specializing in connecting companies throughout the electronic supply chain. This will help customers reduce costs, increase mobility and make wise decisions. An agreement is expected to be reached later this year.

Siemens‘ share price has fallen from the year’s highs following May’s second-quarter earnings report and bounced at the 200-day SMA line at the end of July. This week the price could rise above the bearish channel and the 50-day SMA line again if the price is able to support above the 50-day SMA and the earnings are good. There will be the first target at 139.00 and the next one in the year’s high at 145.00, while if earnings are bad there will be key support at the 200-day SMA at 129.00 and the next one at the latest low at 125.00.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Investment Bank Outlook 04-08-2021

Credit AgricoleAsia overnight: In Asian hours risk sentiment was broadly stable with mot regional stock market indices trading higher at the time of writing. This is partly due to better than expected business activity data out of China. In G10 FX, the risk sensitive NZD was among the outperformers. However, this is mostly on the back of better-than-expected Q2 employment data. At 4.0% (prev.4.7, cons. 4.4%) the unemployment rate came in well below consensus. So much should lay the ground for the RBNZ considering higher rates later this month with all its implications to the currency. Elsewhere, the AUD has been sticking to most of its recent gains as driven by more hawkish than expected RBA monetary policy announcement.Looking ahead, trade data on Thursday will likely demonstrate medium-term underlying support for the currency. Indeed, strong iron ore prices as well as large export volumes will potentially see Australia will potentially log a record trade surplus. Importantly, Australia’s strong trade balance and current account surplus leaves the AUD less vulnerable to downside pressures from its lost interest rate advantage. European morning: All eyes on PMIs Data wise today’s focus will be on July Services PMIs out of Eurozone, UK and Sweden. Since Eurozone and UK data are final revisions, surprise potential seem slow.This in turn implies low market impact with external factors such as global risk sentiment likely to remain in the driver’s seat. This is especially true as when it comes to the Euro with its strongly capped rate profile keeping funding attractiveness rather well supported. When it comes to GBP, investors’ main focus should have shifted to the upcoming BoE monetary policy announcement already. Turning to Sweden, incoming data is likely to confirm services-sector related business activity to continue expanding at a very healthy level. This is in line with forward looking indicators such as Economic Tendency Survey paining a more constructive picture on growth. At the same time, however, Riksbank members are unlikely to consider a change to their cautious monetary policy stance anytime soon with interest rates expected to remain capped for the entire forecasting horizon. So much is likely to keep the SEK’s sensitivity to better data low. All in all we stick to a neutral stance on the currency from here. USD: Looking beyond the Fed The US debt ceiling and fiscal stimulus While the patient Fed approach towards policy normalization is among the key drivers of the USD underperformance ,we think that additional factors may be playing a lore as well through their negative impact on UST yields and US rates. The first is the US debt ceiling suspension that has expired recently and which means that the US Treasury would have to restrict the issuance of new debt while drawing down its cash reserves (e.g. there could be some focus on the US Treasury quarterly financing announcement today). This has already created an environment of very subdued nominal and record low real UST yields. According to some estimates, the US treasury would not run out of spending power before October, suggesting that the politically-charged process of raising the debt ceiling could drag on in a foreseeable future. In turn, this can keep the current low UST yields and rates in place for longer and undermine the USD. The second USD driver seems to be the lingering uncertainty about the second fiscal stimulus package proposed by the Biden administration (and that consists of an infrastructure bill as well as a much larger (USD3.5tn) reconciliation package).While a successful vote on the infrastructure bill in the US Senate this week can move the process forward, we may have to wait for the more important vote in the House until September when a compromise between the centrist and progressive Democrats on the size of the reconciliation package may be needed to get the fiscal stimulus package through the US congress. Importantly, a debt ceiling extension in conjunction with another aggressive fiscal stimulus deal could magnify the positive impact from Fed QE taper on the UST yields and US rates. Indeed, the confluence of the three factors could shake up the US FI markets in late Q3 and Q421. In turn, higher UST yields and US rates could prop up the USD towards the end of the year, especially vs the JPY and CHF that remain among the most sensitive G10 currencies to moves in the US FI markets. Data wise, today’s focus will be on the July ISM non-manufacturing PMI.Our US economist expects it to post a modest increased to around 60.5 (prev. 60.1). He notes that the outlook for the sector has improved on the back of the reopening of the economy. From that angle upside risks cannot be excluded with such prospects potentially helping the greenback to regain ground. A main focus will be on the PMI’s employment component as lead over Friday’s labour data. Having said that, as outlined previously, any potential positive news about the outlook of the US labour market could bring the FOMC closer to policy normalization in our view and help the USD to regain ground.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-04-08-2021"
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Daily Market Outlook, August 4th, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, August 4th, 2021 Overnight Headlines New Zealand Jobless Rate Drops To 4%, Fueling Rate-Hike Bets Growth In China's July Services Activity Speeds Up, But Risks Loom Japan's Service Sector Activity Shrinks At Faster Pace In July FDA Aims For Final Approval Of Pfizer Shot By Early Sept - NYT U.S. CDC Announces New 60-Day Covid-19 Eviction Moratorium Dollar Pressured Ahead Of Jobs Data; Kiwi Leaps As Rate Hikes Loom Japan 10-Year Yield Falls To Zero For First Time Since December Oil Drops For Third Day On Concerns Covid-19 Spread To Cut Demand Asian Shares Near 1Week Highs But Delta Woes Continue To Mount Singapore Banks Report Strong Profit Growth, Loan Losses Decline Softbank Is Said To Build $5b Stake In Swiss Pharma Giant Roche Apple, Affirm To Launch BNP Program For Canadian PurchasesThe Day Ahead Today’s July PMI Services updates for the Eurozone and the UK are both final estimates. Typically these are largely unchanged from the initial reading. However, in the case of the UK, the latest responses will have been collected after the lifting of restrictions in England on 19th July. So given the likelihood that this provided a boost to some services firms we look for a small upward revision this morning. The services headline index for the Eurozone moved up sharply from June on the first reading, while in contrast the UK measure slipped to its lowest since March. However, both are consistent with strong growth in the sector. In both cases, but more markedly in the UK, inflationary pressures and supply side constraints were noted. UK businesses also continued to point to recruitment difficulties. In the US, the July ISM Services survey will be published. In June the headline index fell to its lowest since February, although its level would normally be seen as indicating strong growth. A further fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index on Monday prompted some speculation that US economic activity may be starting to roll over. Nevertheless, after a big decline in June, it still seems likely that the Services index posted a modest improvement in July. As in the UK, US services companies are complaining about continuing supply issues and recruitment difficulties. It suggests that it might be those factors rather than a lack of demand behind much of the slowdown in activity. Today’s ADP measure of US employment will, as always, be watched for clues on Friday’s jobs report. Expect 800k jobs growth for July which would be a signal that the labour market is robust. However also note that the ADP is often an unreliable guide to the payrolls outturn. Fed Vice-Chair Clarida is set to speak this afternoon. He is seen as one of the Fed’s key policymakers, So his insights into what needs to happen before the Fed starts tapering its asset purchases may be particularly revealing of the policy outlook. Previous comments suggest that he favours taking a cautious approach to cutting back stimulusG10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby) USDJPY - 111.70 981m. 111.40/50 926m. 111.20/30 594m. 111.00/10 603m. 110.50/60 1.46bn (1.38bn C). 109.50/60 500m. 106.40/50 420m. EURUSD - 1.2000 562m. 1.1920 632m. 1.1890/1.1900 416m. 1.1870/80 507m. 1.1850/60 1.96bn (1.21bn P). 1.1830/40 1.30bn (878m P). 1.1800/10 836m. 1.1650 424m. GBPUSD - 1.3750 598m. EURGBP - 0.8600 420m. 0.8550 872m. EURJPY - 129.20 960m. USDMXN - 19.90 445m. Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.1950 Bullish above EUR/USD opened 1.1863 - the third straight day opening close to 1.1865 The USD broadly eased in Asia - led by a surge higher in NZD/USD EUR/USD is at the session high at 1.1875 heading into the afternoon Buyers are tipped ahead of 1.1850 where it has bottomed last 3 days Support is at the 10-day MA at 1.1836 and break would ease upward pressure Sellers are camped around 1.1900 with resistance at 38.2 fibo at 1.1948 EUR/USD consolidation may continue ahead of US payrolls FridayGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.40 Bullish above. +0.1% at the top of a 1.3899-1.3930 range with morning flow and a softer USD UK's civil servants may return to office for only 2 days a week Range trading likely key in August, providing opportunities Charts; 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages climb - momentum studies conflict Net bullish setup, but topside progress needed soon to sustain signals 1.3870 10 DMA is initial support - 1.3827 21 DMA is the pivotal level 1.3991 61.8% June-July fall and 1.3998 upper 21 day Bollinger cap at present Break would bring 1.4090 76.4% retracement of June-July fall into playUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 109 Bearish below USD/JPY does little in Asia, holds in 108.93-109.11 EBS range Bids, support sub-108.90, 108.88 low overnight Safe-haven JPY buys as well as some JPY buy-backs on 109.00 break Japanese importers, investors, others showing interest sub-109.00 Upside now likely capped ahead of daily Ichi cloud base at 109.30 Japanese exporter offers look to have moved down, bounce to 109.50 a sell? Some option expiries today but mostly to upside, from @109.50 Soggy US yields to help cap USD/JPY, Treasury 10s @1.183% in Tokyo AXJ mostly up with Wall Street but Nikkei -0.1% @27,603, E-Minis -0.1% JPY crosses do little, NZD/JPY, ZAR/JPY best bid Japan services still in doldrums, July PMI-services 47.4AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .75 Bullish above AUD/USD opened +0.41% at 0.7393 after a whippy US session Strong NZD jobs data sent the NZD/USD soaring and dragged the AUD/USD higher... The AUD/USD traded to 0.7411 and was around 0.7405 into the afternoon A close above the 21-day MA (0.7401) and last week's 0.7413 high would be bullish The objective of a break higher would be the 38.2 of 0.7891/0.7289 at 0.7519 Buyers are tipped ahead of yesterday's 0.7357 low

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-august-4th-2021"
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Dollar Edges Lower; Employment Data Seen Key This Week

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Market Update – August 4 – USD consolidates, Equities Higher, Kiwi Jumps

Market News Today – USD holds at pivot point and struggles for direction. (USDIndex  92.00). Equities close at ATH again (USA500 +0.82% 4423) – strong factory orders and signs of increase in vaccination rates in some key states. Asian markets at 1-week highs Yields lead – down again; 10yr 1.175% close. Overnight – NZD rallies on expectations of rate hikes from August and good jobs data (Unemployment down to 4.0%),  Strong  Chinese Services PMI (54.9 vs 50.3 last month). Gold moves up to $1813 USOil dumps again (missile incident off UAE coast, Iran, UK & US involved) back to $70.00 .

European Open –  DAX and FTSE 100 futures are slightly higher, US futures little changed, after a mixed session in Asia overnight, where Japanese bourses underperformed. The September 10-year Bund yield is up 4 ticks, U.S. futures also fractionally higher, with cash yields still at very low levels. Japan’s 10-year hit zero overnight and the German rate closed at -0.48% yesterday, despite more signs that the current wave of virus infections won’t derail the recovery in Europe, thanks to a successful vaccination campaign. The ECB may have strengthened the dovish language on rates, but it likely to revisit the tapering debate after the summer and Fedspeak from Clarida today will also be scrutinised for hawkish comments.

Today – Final UK & EZ Services PMIs, US ISM non-manu. PMI, ADP employment & remarks from Fed Vice Chair Clarida. Earnings: Commerzbank, Intesa Sanpaolo; Legal & General; General Motors, Kraft Heinz, Uber

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.71%) Big move ahead of expectations of 0.25% rate hikes August, Sept & October by RBNZ.  Has moved up from 76.00 low yesterday, to breach 77.00 and the 20-day MA today. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 significantly and moving higher, RS 68 and still rising. H1 ATR 0.125, Daily ATR 0.760.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Deutsche Post Q2 Earnings Report

The Deutsche Post second-quarter earnings report is today. Considering the previous quarterly report, this guide will forecast the company’s second-quarter earnings report. On July 7, 2021, preliminary results for the second quarter of 2021 were announced. Revenue surged by 26% year on year to €22.7 billion in the first  quarter, while free cash flow increased by one-third to €1.9 billion ^[1].

EBIT (earnings before interest, taxes) tripled to about €2.3 billion. In addition, the company’s net income increased to more than €1.4 billion. According to CEO Frank Appel, the profit figures were first-quarter records ^[1].

The business earned €1.13 in earnings per share on a diluted basis, more than quadrupling its first-quarter 2020 results. According to the organization, quarterly operating cash flow more than tripled to €3 billion, while free cash flow increased to more than €1.4 billion. Free cash flow is frequently negative in Deutsche Post DHL’s first quarter, which is typically its weakest of the year.

Its Global Forwarding, Freight division saw forwarding revenue increase 32.7%  year on year to €4.8 billion. This business also comprises its European road transport activities, which increased by 43.6% to €3.59 billion^[1]. This was due to an 18.2% increase in airfreight volumes to 494,000 tons, as well as an 8.8% increase in the Freight division – primarily due to demand from Asia to North America.

Meanwhile, its Supply Chain division, which was exposed to a large-scale overhaul following the disposal of its Chinese assets, saw revenue remain unchanged at €3.24 billion, while EBIT increased by 59% to €167 million. The relatively young e-commerce segment increased revenue by 46% to €1.8 billion, as strong demand in 2020 spilt over into 2021. The supply chain segment, which had lagged behind the other divisions due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on customer activity, recorded 4.7% organic sales growth to €3.8 billion ^[1].

Given the current profits growth, the Group EBIT for 2021 is forecast to exceed €7.0 billion. This includes around €200 million in additional expenses for the one-time corona bonus.The Group now anticipates a free cash flow of more than €3.2 billion for the fiscal year 2021. In 2021, gross CAPEX is estimated to be around €3.9 billion.

Stock Analysis

---

Deutsche Post has continued to move upwards for the past five months. The recent low came on March 5 with a low of $48.49. The company’s most recent high came on July 7, when it breached above the $70 mark, trading at 71.28.  The 9-day moving average indicates the positive trend will continue for the German company.

Deutsche Post’s next resistance level, based on its upward trend, is $71, which was its latest high. If the price breaks through $71, it may see some demand on to the next resistance of $80. However, the price may see some downturns. Furthermore, the stock is trading well above its 48 support level [2]

1. https://www.dpdhl.com/content/dam/dpdhl/en/media-center/investors/documents/presentations/2021/DPDHL-Preliminary-Results-Q2-2021-Presentation-2021-07-07.pdf
2. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DPSGY/analysis?p=DPSGY

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Adnan Abdul Rehman 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Dollar Down, Near Recent Lows Ahead of U.S. Economic Data

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Dollar pressured ahead of jobs data; kiwi leaps as rate hikes loom

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McConnell warns Democrats not to end infrastructure debate

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