Wednesday, September 1, 2021

A big miss for ADP & significance for NFP

EURUSD,H1

US ADP reported private payrolls increased only 374,000 in August, another disappointing number and about half the consensus estimate of 650,000. Also, the already soft July report was revised lower to 326,000 from 330,000. The bulk of the gains continue to come from the service sector which added 329,000 workers. Jobs in the goods sector rose 45,000. In the services category, employment in leisure/hospitality led the month’s pick up, adding 201,000, followed by education/health at 59,000, with professional business services rising 19,000. Trade/transport added 18,000 workers with jobs in financial activities edging up 13,000. The report reflects numerous headwinds in hiring and portends a soft BLS employment release on Friday, where the SmartEstimate from the Reuters poll is for the Non-Farm Payroll to grow by 726,700 with the range in the poll estimates varying from 375,000 to 1,027,000.

As for the follow through for the NFP data, Action Economics sum it up like this: “The last two restrained monthly ADP headline gains imply downside risk for Friday’s jobs report, though the ADP data remain an unreliable predictor of monthly payroll swings. We no longer assume an “as reported” ADP bias relative to the BLS private payroll figures, despite a pattern of ADP undershoots earlier in the pandemic, given more recent overshoots in April and May, and previously in December and January.”

The Dollar headed lower after the weak ADP jobs report, EURUSD edged up to 1.1845 from near 1.1815, while USDJPY breached 110.00, touching 109.90 down from 110.35. Equity futures remain 0.3% to 0.4% higher, while yields moved a bit lower. Yields are down from Asian session t highs. It’s a modest move, however, as there is a big error term on the headline number compared to the BLS figure. The 10-year rate is now 0.7 bps lower at around 1.304%. It was at a 1.33% earlier today. The rate averaged 1.28% for August.

Still to come today,  the key ISM manufacturing PMI which is expected to slip a whole point drop from 59.5 to 58.5 and the Weekly Crude Oil Inventories which are expected to show a drawdown of -2.5 million barrels.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



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Big Negative Surprise From the Conference Board. What are the Takeaways for the NFP?

Greenback struggles to take off from the 92.50 support level ahead of US labour data for August. DXY rallied on Tuesday thanks to the outflow from Treasuries market as distant bond yields apparently rose in response to hawkish remarks of some ECB officials. The 10-year yield rose from 1.27% to 1.35% as the ECB policymakers hinted that it may be appropriate to start tapering of special asset purchase programs (the so-called PEPP). Given that the major central banks try to keep up with each other in terms of policy easing and tightening, this were interpreted as a hint that the Fed may be more eager to taper than previously expected.More specifically, here is a statement by the head of the Danish Central Bank, Knot: "The inflation forecast in the Eurozone has improved markedly and justifies an immediate reduction in PEPP, a complete curtailment of the program in March 2022 and a return to pre-crisis discipline in policy."However, Nomura's latest forecast does not anticipate a shift in PEPP until at least March 2022:The ECB is due to holding a meeting on Thursday, September 9 and based on emergence of hawkish rhetoric, there is growing risk that Lagarde will hint that PEPP cannot last forever. In anticipation of this surprise, the euro may extend gains against its peers, given that now the European currency has very low expectations for tightening, since the ECB until recently refrained from hawkish hints in every possible way.Ahead of the NFP, markets are closely watching data that may indirectly indicate a change in employment in the reported month. Among important indicators, one can single out the consumer confidence indices, the dynamics of which is tied to income and income expectations of households. Yesterday was published a report on consumer confidence from the Conference Board, which decreased compared to the previous month (129.1 against 113.9 points). In addition, the index did not live up to expectations and also came below the most pessimistic forecast. We can recall the depressing dynamics of the index from U. of Michigan in August (drop by 10 points), which may also indicate a tipping point in consumer sentiment and expectations in August. In general, consumer sentiment is deteriorating and either this is the result of expectations of sharply increased inflation or worsening income outlook. By the way, one-year inflation expectations, calculated on the basis of the report, rose to 6.8% - this is the maximum since 2008:Source: ZeroHedgeIt is clear that high inflation starts to negatively affect consumer decisions, from this point of view, it is time for the Fed to curb stimulus measures, since it is more and more difficult to assert about the temporary nature of inflation and this may at some point result in a loss of confidence by market participants in the Fed's actions, which is fraught with increased policy costs.The Conference Board report, together with the Michigan report, suggests that we will face moderate job growth in the United States. Nevertheless, inflation dynamics indicate that the Fed will not be profitable to deviate from its implicit QE promises made in Jackson Hole. The combination of these events - a weakening economic outlook and a course to cut stimulus from the Fed risk negatively affecting stock prices, inducing correction from ATH.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/big-negative-surprise-from-the-conference-board-what-are-the-takeaways-for-the-nfp"
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Midweek Market Podcast – September 1

As August gave way to September, the USD came under pressure, equities squeezed higher and Oil prices remained supported ahead of OPEC news, with NFP still to come.



The Market Week – August into September 

Another volatile week to start the month; USD remains pressured at three-week lows as economic data reports remain mixed, Equities hit all-time highs again supported by strong earnings and US treasuries hold onto gains even as yields recover.  All eyes now on the OPEC meeting (today) and NFP Jobs data (Friday).

It’s NFP week so jobs, earnings and unemployment take centre stage.  The weekly US unemployment claims missed expectations again, coming in at 353,000, with 342,000 expected this week. NFP is expected to be around 750,000 and unemployment to drop to 5.2%. Although the data continues to trend lower overall, it is a very choppy ride for the long term unemployed.

The vaccine rollouts continue to drive sentiment, but the Delta variant remains a significant concern. A surge of cases in the US and parts of Asia continue to weigh. Over 5.29 billion doses of vaccines have been administered globally but many low-income countries continue to have less than 5% vaccination rates.

This week FX volatility was evident again.  The USDIndex slipped to 92.35 but holds 92.00, and EURUSD tested up to 1.1845 from 1.1750 lows, while USDJPY rotates over 110.00, testing 110.50. Cable rallied from below 1.3700, spiked over 1.3800 before settling back to 1.3750.

US stock markets posted more new all-time highs and continue to consolidate at highs on the back of the strong Q2 Earnings Season. September, particularly the second half, can be very volatile for equities. However, the USA500 now holds over 4,500, the USA30 continues to test 35,500 and the USA100 tests over 15,600.

The Gold price moved up this week as the USD remained pressured and US Treasuries in demand.  The price breached $1800, posting highs at $1823 and lows at $1775. The 20-day moving average is up to $1796.

USOil prices had a volatile week, as Hurricane Ida hit the US SW and the OPEC meeting today loomed.  A rally to $69.00 has retraced to $68.20 ahead of news from Vienna and inventories also later today but remains supported by the 20-day moving average at $67.60.

The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury Note remains very much in focus. A weekly high of 1.3610% on Thursday declined to under 1.28% but recovered 1.30% to close the month ahead of the NFP data on Friday.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



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Everything you wanted to know about ethereum but were too afraid to ask

I’ve lost count of the number of times people have asked me to explain what bitcoin is over the years, but I don’t think anyone has ever asked me to explain ethereum.

Probably because, by the time I’ve finished with bitcoin, their eyes have glazed over and they want to save themselves another earful.

But today we ask – what is ethereum?

If you thought explaining bitcoin was hard...

A brief history of ethereum and Vitalik Buterin, its founder

Ethereum has been, by market cap, the second-largest cryptocurrency since 2018. It’s the brainchild of Russian-Canadian programming prodigy, Vitalik Buterin, who first proposed the idea in a white paper in 2013.

Buterin had already been into bitcoin for several years by this point. He first found out about bitcoin from his dad, a computer scientist, in 2011, at the age of just 17, while he was at university (he would soon drop out). He went on to found Bitcoin Magazine that same year.

Just to make you feel inadequate, Buterin is still only 27 and is a billionaire many times over – so many times over that he’s already given away over $2bn in philanthropy.

Philosophically, Buterin is pretty hardcore techno-libertarian. In 2018 he authored a paper with economist Glen Weyl called Liberation Through Radical Decentralisation, in which he “proposed ways to harness markets and technology to radically decentralise power of all sorts and shift our reliance from authority and to formal rules”.

In 2019 his paper, A Flexible Design for Funding Public Goods, written with Harvard PhD student Zoe Hitzig, sets out a new method for the optimal provision of public goods and services, using “quadratic voting” – a more nuanced system of voting that allows for a much more direct system of democracy than current representative systems.

Buterin published his ethereum white paper in 2013. He chose the name after browsing a list of elements on Wikipedia. “It sounded nice”, he said, “and had the word ‘ether’, referring to the hypothetical invisible medium that permeates the universe and allows light to travel.”

He announced the project in 2014 at the North American Bitcoin Conference and development began with an all-star founding team that included Anthony Di Iorio, Charles Hoskinson (founder of Cardano), Mihai Alisie and Amir Chetrit, and soon after Joseph Lubin, Gavin Wood, and Jeffrey Wilcke.

They raised money to found the project via crowdfunding in the summer of that year. By that point, Buterin was already regarded in crypto coding circles as a prodigy.

I remember being invited to participate in that funding, but got annoyed by how badly the project was explained that I didn’t go ahead. Duh!

The project eventually went live in 2015 and, despite numerous setbacks, including a $50m hack after a $150m crowdsale and numerous forks, the project must be deemed to have been a huge success.

The ethereum market cap is some $400bn. Ether, the currency that changes hands over the ethereum network, has gone from below a dollar in late 2015 to $3,500 today.

What is ethereum actually for?

The founding principle of the project was to use blockchain technology for purposes beyond an alternative system of digital money. Bitcoin has its blockchain, so does ethereum – a separate network altogether, using similar distributed ledger technology (aka blockchain) to verify and record transactions.

Like most crypto currencies, ethereum is an open source platform. Ether is used and accepted as a means of payment, but that is not really the purpose of ethereum.

Charlie Morris of Byte Tree likens it to a decentralised App Store. Developers can use the platform to build and publish smart contracts and distributed applications (dApps), and it is a kind of marketplace for financial services (Defi), NFTs (non-fungible tokens), games, and apps, all of which can be paid for in ether.

Hence why it is known as “the world’s programmable blockchain”. It can be used, it claims, to “codify, decentralise, secure, and trade just about anything.”

So coders can deploy decentralised applications onto the ethereum blockchain. These become immutable and permanent, and users can interact with them.

Decentralised finance (DeFi) applications allow for all sorts of financial services – decentralised exchanges, for example, or borrowing and lending systems – without the need for typical financial intermediaries such as banks or brokerages.

Ethereum allows for the creation and trade of NFTs – tokens which are connected to digital works of art and other forms of digital property.

Many use the platform for initial coin offerings, and many cryptocurrencies actually operate on the ethereum blockchain (as what are known as ERC-20 tokens). DAOs – digital autonomous organisations – are taking shape on the platform.

So, all in all, ethereum has found plenty of use, and it has been a fantastic means to play the incredible innovation taking place in this sector.

Will ethereum lose out to its competition?

One of my close bitcoin “original gangster” mates, who in this instance I’m sure would rather not be named, is forever saying to me, “ethereum should fail and it’s a mystery to me why it doesn’t”.

Many feel the same way. The blockchain is not nearly as robust as bitcoin’s; ethereum is not properly decentralised, and the numerous forks that have taken place in reaction to hacks prove this, say critics – they would not be possible with a properly decentralised platform. Too many coins were pre-mined and handed out to founders. Ethereum 2.0 has met with delay after delay. Transaction costs, known as gas fees, are exorbitant (I can vouch for this). At times they cost several hundred dollars, when they should cost pennies. It’s a ticking time bomb, say critics.

Maybe. Ethereum has numerous competitors – Binance Smart Chain, Polkadot, Cardano, Terra, and Solana, for example. Cardano and Solana have both had extraordinary runs, the latter just in recent weeks. Many of these are technologically superior, say critics – faster, more robust. Certainly they don’t have exorbitant gas fees.

But the one thing they don’t have is the network of users. Ethereum has that. It is the first coin the general public thinks of after bitcoin, even if they can’t pronounce it properly. That is what first-mover advantage often gives you.

But that is the market. Everyone submits their offering, makes their argument and price is the outcome. The best man doesn’t always win.

Ethereum is second only to bitcoin. It’s had a great year, on the back of several great years. It’s like silver to bitcoin’s gold – as well as having many more uses, it is more volatile. It often moves later in the cycle but by more, but when the correction comes it gets hit by more too.

In late 2015 it traded as low as $0.42. It went all the way to $1,400 by early 2017. It then lost 95% of its value and plummeted to $80. In the correction of this year, it lost over 60%. But the bottom line is that it began 2021 below $800 and now it’s over four times higher at $3,500.

The direction is up. But for how much longer?

Daylight Robbery – How Tax Shaped The Past And Will Change The Future is now out in paperback at Amazon and all good bookstores with the audiobook, read by Dominic, on Audible and elsewhere.



from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/bitcoin-crypto/603778/what-is-ethereum-blockchain-and-ether-cryptocourrency
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Market Spotlight: Trading The US ADP Employment Release

ADP Employment Up Next Aside from the ISM manufacturing print for August, the other key data release today will be the ADP Non-Farm employment change number. The release is typically used as a gauge for trading the NFP release (which follows on Friday) and, as such, can cause plenty of market volatility. On the back of the bumper jobs report last month, there is plenty of attention on Friday’s release, so any surprises today hold the potential for big market moves.With that in mind, the market is looking for a 640k result, up from the prior 330k reading. If such an increase is confirmed this could send USD sharply higher into Friday, lifting expectations for the NFP. This might especially be the case since the market Is looking for the NFP to fall back to 750k from the prior month’s 943k reading. On the other hand, if today’s number misses the mark, this might further encourage expectations of a weaker number on Friday, sending USD lower as a result.Where to Trade the ADP Release?USDJPYThe triangle pattern which has framed the recent correction and consolidation in USDJPY is now threatening to break with price testing the upper trend line. With indicators turning higher here, the long term bullish trend looks set to continue if price can breakout. The key level to watch will be the 110.92 level, a break above that level will put the 111.70 level in focus next and above there, fresh highs.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-the-us-adp-employment-release"
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Market Spotlight: Trading August US ISM Manufacturing

US ISM Manufacturing In FocusLooking ahead to today’s US session, the key data focus will be split between the ADP employment change and the August ISM manufacturing reading. On the manufacturing front, the market is looking for a 58.5 reading, down from the prior month’s 59.5 result. With the US Dollar trading on a weaker footing on Wednesday, a confirmed reduction in factory activity over the month will likely keep USD pressure heading into the NFP release at the top of the week, especially given that this would mark a third consecutive monthly decline.The rise of the Delta variant as well as period of bad weather over the month are cited as reasons for this forecast. However, if the forecast proves to be wrong and the indicator is seen above 58.5, this could send USD higher into Friday’s data. Of particular note will be the employment component of the data, if this is seen rising, traders could well take it as a sign that the NFP result will come in strong on Friday.Where to Trade US ISM Manufacturing?GBPUSDThe latest recovery ahead of the 1.3507 level has stalled into a test of the 1.38 level, with the bearish trend line from YTD highs sitting just above. With price stalled here, any USD strength could well send the pair lower with a break of 1.3676 targeting 1.3507 and 1.3461 thereafter. Indicators are broadly flat here, highlighting plenty of room for any move to gain traction.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-august-us-ism-manufacturing"
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USDCLP Collapses On Huge Chilean Rate Hike

Rates Hiked Above Market ForecastsIn stark contrast to the mammoth easing programs which remain in place across the majority of the G10, the Chilean central bank actioned its largest rate hike in 20 years overnight. The central bank, led by governor Mario Marcel, hiked rates by 0.75% to 1.5%. While a rate hike had been well signalled, the move was well above market forecasts of a 0.50% hike and has sent the Chilean Peso soaring against the Dollar, marking a reversal in the YTD rally which had seen USDCLP rising more than 15% from lows around 700 to highs just ahead of the 800 mark.Attempting to Control InflationIn the statement issued alongside the decision, the central bank cited “an accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances that, among other consequences, could lead to a more persistent increase in inflation,” as its central reasoning for the rate hike. The statement noted that “The board decided to intensify the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by increasing the policy rate by 75 basis points” after considering these factors.COVID Recovery & Commodities RallyThe central bank is clearly hoping that this latest policy move will help cool the current overheating in the Chilean economy. The country remains one of the best performing in Latin America with current consensus growth forecasts for the year ahead sitting around the 10% level. However, the rise in commodity prices, as well as the firm rebound in consumer demand, is seeing inflation running well above target and for a longer period than the central bank initially projected, threatening spiralling inflation if not brought under control.Inflation at 5-Year HighsThe Santiago base central bank noted that the ongoing global economic recovery was fuelling the rise in inflation there. With COVID vaccination optimism driving commodities prices higher once again, the country (which is the largest global copper producer) noted that inflation was becoming a key issue. The rise in in energy prices, particularly as transportation costs, was also fuelling the uptick in inflation. Last month, inflation peaked at 4.5%, marking its higher point since Q1 2016, after rising 0.8% on the month, well above forecasts for a 0.3% rise.Technical ViewsUSDCLPThe sell off has seen price pulling back below the 776.91 level after failing at a test of the channel top. With indicators turned lower, while below this level, there is room for a deeper correction towards the 758.42 level, with the rising channel low coming in just above. A break below there would then put 745.47 in view as deeper support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdclp-collapses-on-huge-chilean-rate-hike"
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USDJPY – Moving within a triangle to start September

USDJPY, H4

Most of the Japanese economic data reports this week were better than expected, but did not stand out significantly. The most recent August manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 52.7 from 52.4 in the first reading and 53.0 for the previous month’s reading. This marks the seventh consecutive month of growth in the manufacturing sector amid the outbreak and restrictions of Covid-19.

When compared to US economic data that has been reported for this week, the reports are overall disappointing. However, the data on the US economic calendar for the rest of this week will become a key highlight of the market, starting tonight with the ADP and ISM-PMI Employment Figures, Manufacturing Sector Unemployment Claims tomorrow and the non-farm employment and the unemployment rate on Friday.

Japan and the United States, two major economies, are facing a major outbreak of the Delta variant. So far, more than an estimated one million Americans have taken a COVID booster, even though none have been authorized¹ , while Japan’s vaccination program has been struggling, with contaminants found in several batches of the Moderna vaccine. As for central bank moves in September, both the Fed and the BoJ will have a meeting to decide interest rates simultaneously on September 22.

As for the movement of the USDJPY pair, trading has started to gain momentum after a rather quiet Monday. In the H4 timeframe, a triangular pattern is visible within the high-low frame of August, and now the price is testing a two-week high zone. If broken, the next resistance will be at the August high zone at 110.80, while if the price continues to swing within the triangle there will be a first support at the MA50 and MA200 lines at 109.90. Overall this week, there is a bias towards the uptrend. This is because in the Day timeframe, the price is breaking above the MA50 line as it breaks into the positive zone of the MACD.

¹https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/covid-boosters-americans-cdc-the-capsule/

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



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Investment Bank Outlook 01-09-2021

CitiG10 in focusNZD traded at 0.7038 at time of writing. Few local details to report as underpinning the mood. This suggests the rally is a product of positive off-shore risk sentiment alongside potentially month-end linked activity. CitiFX note several optimistic formations including: recent morning star, completed inverted head and shoulders, alongside triple momentum divergence seen the previous week’s close. Look out for resistance up ahead in the 0.7096-0.7116 range.Equities saw the S&P index close mildly weaker by -0.1% to 4522. Outflows were most notable in the energy sector, and correspond to crude prices -1.0% lower towards $68.50 as of writing. This appears to reflect mild position trimming ahead of the Wednesday OPEC+ meeting 16:00 BST. For levels to consider in the oil space. Over in the rates space, choppiness characterized early activity before Treasuries selling took hold over the afternoon. Consequently, we see the 10y sit roughly 3bps higher at 1.309% as of print.CIBCFX FlowsUSDCAD has been rather bid this morning, paying no attention to the price of oil futures. Oct futures contracts advanced to $68.73 while USDCAD firmed up. We think Aisa is doing a follow-through from last night especially after the GDP.Our head of FICC, Ian Pollick said, we are taking the opportunity to update our views on what we think this means for the BoC, as well as general market opportunities. The expenditure data for Q2-21 suggests the Bank’s Q3-21 estimate, of 7.3% SAAR, will be harder to achieve. What was also ignored this morning was the implied GDP deflator, which showed continued gains. We are seeing this national income increasingly being saved and not spent. What is likely to happen on the back of this data is one of two things, either: i) the Street raises 2022 growth figures to maintain hiking profiles, or; ii) pushes back the output gap closure and therefore pushes hike/s into 2023. We do not believe today’s data is enough in isolation to delay a tapering at the October Monetary Policy Report.We continue to expect a C$1.0bn reduction to the weekly pace of the Government Bond Purchase Program.With Canadian election set on September 20, Bipan said that as usual with each election, we’re fielding lots of questions as to whether this campaign will mean anything for CAD assets - including the Loonie. To summarize the main point of this note – it’s our view that this election is unlikely to mean much for the CAD. In fact, most election campaigns in Canada don’t really end moving the dial for the Loonie at all. That shouldn’t surprise anyone that is even remotely familiar with Canadian markets.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-01-09-2021"
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Dollar Edges Off Three Week Lows; Payrolls in Focus



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Daily Market Outlook, September 1st, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, September 1st, 2021 Overnight Headlines Fed Reverse Repo Show No Sign Of Slowing Amid Imbalances US To Unveil Steps Aimed At Easing Housing Supply Shortage Biden Defend Afghan Exit Timing, Declaring It Saved US Lives China Factory Activity Contract In First Time Since April 2020 BoJ’s Deputy Governor Warns Against Premature Tightening Japanese PM Denies Dissolving Parliament Plans In Mid-Sept Australia’s Q2 Economy Slow Ahead Of Lockdown Downturn Australia’s Victoria Cases Rise As Lockdown Extension Looms New Zealanders Venture Out As Curbs Eased In Most Region SNB Warns Swiss Housing Correction As Bubble Risks Mount OPEC+ Meets With No Sign of Deviating From Planned Hikes Google Developing Own Processors For Chromebook Laptop The Day Ahead This morning’s UK and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs are final releases, and are expected to confirm earlier ‘flash’ estimates. The ‘flash’ UK manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 60.1 from 60.4 in July, driven by a marked fall in the output index to 54.1, as continued supply disruptions lead to lengthening supplier delivery times and backlogs of work. The picture is similar for the Eurozone, with the ‘flash’ manufacturing PMI falling to 61.5 from 62.8, led by output and total orders, mainly linked to supply chain constraints, but the pace of expansion remains strong by historical standards. The August results for Italy and Spain will be released for the first time this morning. Separately, the Eurozone jobless rate is forecast to fall to 7.6% from 7.7%. Yesterday saw the Eurozone August ‘flash’ CPI rise unexpectedly strongly to a 13-year high of 3.0%y/y. Meanwhile, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is scheduled to speak at 1pm. His comments could be interesting, given that he was reportedly not in favour of the ECB’s new forward guidance on interest rates, which basically raised the hurdle for the first increase. The afternoon session sees some important US releases. The August ISM manufacturing survey could fall to 58.5, which could be the lowest this year, affected by continuing issues with supply chain disruptions and recruitment. However, that would still be well above the 50 ‘expansion/ contraction’ level. There will also be interest in the survey’s business prices index which remains very elevated but may be showing some signs of easing. July construction spending figures are also due, which we see rising by 0.5%. Another key US release ahead of Friday’s official August employment report is the ‘unofficial’ ADP private sector jobs update. Last month, the US economy officially added 943k jobs, more than financial markets were expecting, with a significant proportion of those in leisure & hospitality reflecting the reopening of the economy. The ADP is not always a reliable guide to the official figures, look for an increase of 715k in today’s number.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby) USDJPY - 109.90/110.00 759m. 109.30/40 1.46bn (1.24bn P). 109.00 500m. EURUSD - 1.1840 594m. 1.1820 1.05bn (882m C). 1.1700/20 1.33bn (1.18bn P). 1.1650/70 877m. AUDUSD - 0.7230/40 404m. USDCAD - 1.2700/20 777m. 1.2630/40 918m. 1.2600 418m. 1.2370/80 485m. - Source: CT NewsTechnical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.1850 Bullish above EUR/USD opened Asia 1.1809 and traded in a 1.1800/11 range Bias is for higher, but it needs to close above 55-day MA at 1.1816 Sellers are tipped ahead of 1.1850 to slow any progress higher Solid support is found at 1.1760 where the 10 & 21-day MAs converge A break below 1.1760 would ease upward pressure for the time being Market looking ahead to US non-farm payrolls - with ADP jobs out todayGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.3830 Bullish above. Touch softer in a 1.3619-1.3641 range with plenty of morning interest UK house prices to climb on cheap cash, quest for space Charts; momentum studies fall, 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages slide 21 day Bollinger bands expand - strong trending bearish setup 1.3661 falling lower 21 day Bollinger band suggests oversold short term Fall targets a test of 1.3572 July trend base, with 1.3452 2021 base below 1.3783/90 10 day moving average and 200 DMA are pivotal resistance UK retail sales lead data - polls - headline m/m +0.4%, ex fuel m/m +0.2%USDJPY Bias: Bullish above 109 Bearish below USD/JPY and JPY crosses better bid with focus squarely on global yields US, Australia and NZ yields up in Asia, US Tsy 10s 1.316% to 1.344% USD/JPY 109.99 to 110.23 EBS, moves above wafter-thin 110.09-11 Ichi cloud Move up today also takes it back above 110.15 55-DMA, to pre-Powell levels Up bias dependent on moves in US yields, resistance still pre-110.30 Number of daily highs to 110.80 on August 11 too Japanese exporter offers trail up from 110.25, talk retail offers too Option expiries today now below - 109.95-110.05 $744 mln, 109.30-40 $1.4 bln Tokyo risk-on, Nikkei +1.2% @28,437, E-Minis +0.3% @4533.5 EUR/JPY buoyant, 129.89-130.11, GBP/JPY steady, 151.21-46 AUD/JPY 80.38 to 80.67, NZD/JPY 77.44 to 77.68, just under key resistanceAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7320 Bullish above AUD/USD opened +0.26% at 0.7314 despite sluggish moves in risk assets It traded up to 0.7324 early Tokyo on AUD/JPY demand before Aus GDP It was trading at 0.7410 when Q2 Aus GDP came in better than expected It traded to 0.7318 before easing back to 0.7310/15 into the afternoon Market appeared to shrug off a 7% slide in Dalian iron ore futures Support is at yesterday's low at 0.7288 with buyers tipped at 0.7285 A break below 0.7285 targets the 10-day MA at 0.7249 Resistance is at the 55-day MA at 0.7395 and 38.2 fibo at 0.7406

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-september-1st-2021"
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Market Update – September 1

Market News Today 

European bond markets and Eurozone peripherals in particular sold off yesterday, as more ECB officials flagged the possibility of a tapering announcement next week and it seems pretty certain now that ECB will start to take the foot off the accelerator as it revises its growth forecast upwards once again. Activity is now expected to reach pre-crisis levels already at the end of this year, and fiscal support should increase, which reduces the need for central bank support to some extent at least. Central bank officials will stress the very dovish guidance on the rate outlook though in order to avoid a taper tantrum

  • Bonds in Australia and Zealand underperformed and sold off sharply as traders assess the economic outlook against the background of virus developments.
  • Australia Q2 GDP beat most estimates. GDP numbers have prompted some to ditch expectations that the RBA will postpone planned moves
  • Japan’s Markit manufacturing PMI was revised higher and continues to signal expansion.
  • USD (USDIndex 92.75) strengthened.
  • Equities are mixed as GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.5%, alongside gains in U.S. futures, which is encouraging. China’s tech stocks shake off risks.
  • EUR and Sterling are lower against the dollar, but it is the CHF that is mostly under pressure this morning.
  • USOil is trading at $68.92 as traders assess the prospect for an easing of output restrictions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today. (Saudi struggling to increase supply)
  • Shrinking US stockpiles, a rebound in Indian demanf China’s Breakout
  • Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.

European Open –  German retail sales corrected -5.1% m/m in July, a much more pronounced correction than anticipated, largely related to the ebb and flow of virus developments and restrictions.

Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the outlook and focus on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone and the UK. Eurozone unemployment data for July are also due. In US, we have ADP  and ISM data.

 

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.41%) Spikes to 2-week highs to 80.82 from 78.00 lows. Faster MA’s aligned higher. The MACD signal line & histogram rising strongly. RSI at 70 and rising. H1 ATR 0.096, Daily ATR 0.733.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



from HF Analysis /267132/
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Dollar Up, but Fed Asset Tapering Move Guessing Game Keeps Moves Small



from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/dollar-up-but-fed-asset-tapering-move-guessing-game-keeps-moves-small-2604793
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Dollar pinned near three-week low as U.S payrolls test looms



from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/dollar-pinned-near-threeweek-low-as-us-payrolls-test-looms-2604770
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Don’t count resources out

Commodities have performed poorly over the past year, but they tend to move in long and volatile cycles. from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://m...