Friday, September 3, 2021
BTCUSD facing Bearish pressure
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Investment Bank Outlook 03-09-2021
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Dollar Marooned at One-Month Low Ahead of Payrolls
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USOil – Weak Dollar, Oil Tests Key Resistance
USOil, Daily
Oil prices rose to a new four week high at 70.39 yesterday as the US Dollar fell to a four week low. The USDIndex made a low at 92.13 this morning after the weekly unemployment claims report was the lowest since the start of the pandemic, at 340,000.
This week, OPEC, led by Russia, agreed to maintain production capacity of 400,000 barrels per day for October (continued from September) as due to the impact of Covid-19, there are still some factors of economic uncertainty, though we are starting to see strong fundamentals and renewed demand. The OECD’s crude stockpiles continue to decline, while US crude inventories (EIA) reported a lower-than-expected -7.2 million barrels this week, compared with a forecast of -2.5 million barrels.
From the technical point of view, yesterday’s rally in oil prices broke above the MA50 line, before slumping back to trade lower, now stuck at a key resistance zone consisting of the 70.00 psychological level, the MA50 line and the top frame of the Channel. If it is able to breach this level, the next resistance level is at 74.00 and then the multi-year high of 76.36, while on the downside support is at 66.00 and the support of the MA200 Zone 62.00. Overall the price is not clear at the moment because the MACD is moving up near the 0 line, while the RSI continues to hover near the 50 level.
Things to keep an eye on for today include the US Non-Farm Employment Report, as well as other labor data. This is seen as important information for the Fed’s decision on the tapering path for QE.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Wine of the week: a top-flight claret on the high street
2018 Château Deyrem Valentin, Cru Bourgeois Supérieur, Margaux, Bordeaux, France
£31.99, available at 218 Waitrose stores and at waitrosecellar.com
It’s funny how my drinking habits have remained relatively constant over the years, even though my palate veers all over the place on account of the tens of thousands of wines that I taste. I don’t think I have dipped into a single claret since writing my Bordeaux En Primeur Report back in May, but I have been quietly willing September to arrive. Each year this glorious month signals to me, at least, that the Bordeaux season is back on, and it will stay with me for the next eight months. While it is always amusing to pluck bottles from the cellar, it is very rare to find top-flight, reasonably priced bottles of claret on the high street, and it is rarer still when they happen to be drinking rather well.
I have long been a fan of Deyrem Valentin, a hidden jewel in the Margaux crown. Made from 50% merlot, 49% cabernet sauvignon and 1% petit verdot, and spending 15 months in 50% new French oak, this classic recipe could result in any manner of flavour, but at Deyrem you can always rely on subtlety, balance, silkiness and style.
My mother told me some 50 years ago that her favourite style of red wine was Margaux. The wines these days are, on the whole, a lot more extracted and powerful than they were a couple of generations ago, but this is the sort of wine she would have adored. Deyrem has never altered its style – honed, engaging, polished and in perfect equilibrium; this is fabulous for autumnal drinking.
Matthew Jukes is a winner of the International Wine & Spirit Competition’s Communicator of the Year (matthewjukes.com)
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Sony A7c: a pro-level camera at an affordable price
One of the defining features of a serious camera is the size of its sensor. Smartphones and cameras intended for casual snaps typically have a sensor smaller than one inch. “Prosumer” and enthusiast cameras tend to have larger ones, affording better image quality (especially in low light). Many professionals prefer to go with “full-frame” sensors, which are an attempt to replicate the 35mm format used in the days of film. Sadly, these tend to be exponentially more expensive, as well as bigger and heavier, which is why APS-C (or “crop” sensor) cameras are often considered the best compromise for hobbyists.
The good news is that recently several camera companies have been trying to produce full-frame cameras priced at a level more affordable for non-professionals. The A7c is Sony’s attempt to break into this market. Weighing (and looking) almost identical to the a6100, a6400 and a6000, it is compact enough to fit in a large jacket pocket and comes with all the features you’d expect from the latest Sony cameras, including a fast, accurate autofocus that is regarded as the best available, and which can automatically track subjects’ eyes. This extends to video recording and the camera has the capacity to record long clips. The body stabilisation feature allows you to take pictures at very slow speeds without camera shake. The colours seem both vivid and natural.
There are a few downsides. Firstly, in order to make it look more compact, the camera has been designed in a “rangefinder” style, with the viewfinder to the left of the lens, and the viewfinder is smaller than those for typical cameras. It also lacks a built-in flash. And although the A7c is relatively cheap compared with most full-frame cameras, it is still roughly double the price of crop-sensor alternatives.
Still, the A7c remains perhaps Sony’s most advanced camera and costs only around half to two-thirds the price of its other flagship models (such as the A9 and A9 Mark II). As someone who shoots a lot of theatre, where the level of light is limited, I normally have to use special lenses to ensure that the photographs don’t end up becoming too grainy. With the A7c, however, I am able to get large numbers of high-quality pictures using just the FE 28-60mm f/4-5.6 lens.
The Sony A7c costs £1,900 for the body only and £2,150 with the 28mm-60mm zoom lens. See sony.co.uk.
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Edinburgh beyond the Fringe
Two years ago there were mutterings that the Edinburgh Fringe and the other associated festivals had grown too large. Then last year’s Fringe was cancelled entirely. This year saw a drastically reduced number of shows due to the Scottish government’s continuing Covid-19-related restrictions. Still, despite the loss of spontaneity, the Fringe remained worth the trip and I got to see eight excellent shows in spite of the added hassle.
The much-reduced Fringe aside, Edinburgh remains a stunning city that has retained its distinctive character, with its blend of medieval, Georgian and modern architecture, all packed into an easily navigated package. The Museum of Scotland, the Scottish National Gallery and the Royal Yacht Britannia (moored in the Ocean Terminal) are all worth a visit; Edinburgh Castle is too, although currently you have to book well in advance. There is also a vibrant street-food scene – Pizza Posto on Nicolson Street serves the best pizza and bruschetta in town.
A magical photography tour
Budding photographers should also consider the Edinburgh Photography Tour. Former portrait and press photographer James Christie, who has snapped everyone from David Bowie to the Queen, combines a walking tour of the city with a masterclass on how to take professional-quality landscape photographs. Revealing hidden vantage points, he shows how taking your shot from just a slightly different angle can transform forgettable snaps into something magical (£100, jameschristiephotography.com).
By limiting the size of groups and giving tour leaders freedom to go their own way, Rabbie’s Tours has gained a reputation for going beyond the generic coach trip. Starting in Edinburgh, their one-day “west highlands, lochs and castles tour” takes you to ruined castles, picturesque lochs, charming villages and Inverary Castle, the home of the Duke of Argyll. During the trip, guide Graham Trotter talks you through the history and plays a carefully curated playlist of Scottish music (from £46, rabbies.com).
In nearby North Berwick, try the Scottish Seabird Centre for boat trips to the Isle of May. Famed for being the site of Scotland’s first lighthouse, the Isle of May, known as the “Jewel of the Forth”, is now a nature reserve teeming with wildlife, from guillemots, kittiwakes and shags to seals and puffins (although the puffins mostly leave in early August). The four-hour trip includes a detour to the Bass Rock (£50, seabird.org).
A perfect boutique hotel
For the last two nights of my stay I had the privilege of being a guest at the Dunstane Houses, consisting of two Victorian villas, Dunstane House and Hampton House, on opposite sides of the road. It is currently run by Shirley and Derek Mowat, who have transformed it from a beloved guest house into Edinburgh’s leading boutique hotel. It is ideally located for sports lovers and tourists as it is just a ten-minute walk to Scotland’s national stadium, Murrayfield, next to Edinburgh's Haymarket railway station, and just a short tram ride from Princes Street and the Royal Mile.
The hotel is designed around a traditional Scottish country-house theme and the owners’ Orkney roots are in evidence. Each of the 35 rooms has been personalised with a distinctive design and furnishings, giving them a unique character. All are comfortable and spacious and you can be assured of a sound and restful night’s sleep, and the staff are friendly, attentive and willing to go beyond the call of duty. The extensive menu will have something to sate every appetite, from light afternoon teas to a slap-up meal in the Ba’ Bar and restaurant. (Double rooms from £237.25 per night. See thedunstane.com or telephone 0131-337 6169.)
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Daily Market Outlook, September 3rd, 2021
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-september-3rd-2021"
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Market Update – September 3 – NFP day
Market News Today
Today’s employment report is eagerly awaited for directional purposes. The markets traded very quietly Thursday, though with a bullish bias. Treasury yields finished marginally lower with the 10-year just under 1.30%. The mix of data had little impact, though the improvement in claims did underpin an upbeat outlook into the jobs numbers, even as the factory and trade data, along with the already seen weakness in vehicle sales weighed heavily on Q3 GDP projections.
- Action on Wall Street was equally light and range-bound, though at the risk of repeating, the USA500 and the USA100 made still more new highs.
- Data releases in Asia highlighted the impact of virus developments on the services sector in particular – Asian stock markets have moved higher and stocks across China, Japan and Australia are poised for a weekly rise, despite gloomy data.
- The fact that the JPN225 still rallied nearly 2% and the ASX is up 0.5% how reliant markets are on central bank support.
- GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.076% and 0.014%.
- USD (USDIndex 92.45) extending 12-day decline.
- USOil declined to $68.00 after OPEC+ alliance agrees to return more barrels.
- Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.
Today – The calendar includes the final PMI readings for the Eurozone and the UK, which are likely to confirm that high vaccination rates limit the impact of the rapidly spreading delta variant. Eurozone retail sales and ISM Services PMI are also dues. The highlight of the day is the NFP number.
Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.26%) Broke 28-day Support. Faster MAs aligned lower with MACD resuming decline, Stochastic below 20 and RSI at 31.80 all three suggesting decline in the short term. H1 ATR 0.00173, Daily ATR 0.01062.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Dollar Down, Near One-Month Low Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report
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Dollar near one-month low as payrolls test looms
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Dollar lost for direction awaiting Fed to set its path: Reuters poll
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Thursday, September 2, 2021
USD Remains under pressure
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Wall Street bounces on open!
Wall Street opened higher, with futures currently indicating a about a 0.3% gain for the major indices. The pandemic-low print for jobless claims helped sentiment, though overall, investors are likely to keep their powder dry ahead of Friday’s August employment report. September has historically been the weakest month of the year, though much will depend on how expectations for Fed QE tapering play out. The outcome of Friday’s jobs report could go some way in determining those expectations.
The US Dollar ticked slightly higher following the mix of data, which saw the trade deficit narrow more than consensus, and initial and continuing jobless claims fall to pandemic lows. Q2 productivity was revised slightly lower, while unit labor costs were revised higher. USDJPY touched 110.05 highs from 110.00, and EURUSD dipped to 1.1837 from 1.1845. Equity futures continue to indicate a moderately higher Wall Street open, while yields are little changed.
US trade deficit narrowed -4.3% to -$70.1 bln in July after widening 6.8% to -$73.2 bln (was -$75.7 bln) in June which is the all-time wide. Exports jumped 1.3% to $212.8 bln after edging up 0.6% in June and 0.9% in May. July Imports declined -0.2% to $282.9 bln following the 2.2% (was 2.1%) June jump and the 1.4% (was 1.3%) May climb. The “real” goods trade balance shrank to -$100.1 bln from -$105.0 bln (was -$105.2 bln), with exports rising 1.0% from the prior -0.7% and imports dropping -1.4% from the prior 0.9% (was 1.0%) gain.
US initial jobless claims fell -14k to 340k in the week ended August 28, another new post-covid low, after the 5k bounce to 354k (was 353k) previously. The 4-week moving average dropped to 355k from 366.75k (was 366.5k). Claims not seasonally adjusted declined -11k to 287.8k after sliding -10.7k to 298.8k (was 297.8k). Continuing claims tumbled -160k to 2,748k for the August 21 week, also a new post-covid nadir, after the prior 43k increase to 2,908k (was 2,862k).
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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