Oil Prices on Downward Trajectory

Good day,The EUR/USD pair has touched the resistance at the level of 1.1900 and pulled back, forming a shooting star. The asset’s price is expected to drop till the level of 1.1704, therefore the currency pair is most likely to head down in the beginning of trading week.Brent oil has pulled from the upper side of local downtrend that resembles a flag. Hence, potential drop might be ahead. Oil price might hit the level of 65.50.Gold has closely approached the resistance zone, leaving the flags behind. Gold might even break the level soon. Therefore, let’s check the price movements next to this zone to understand what is about to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/oil-prices-on-downward-trajectory"
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Daily Market Outlook, September 6th, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, September 6th, 2021 Overnight Headlines Congress Braces For Spending Fights Amid Threat Of Shutdown Biden Aide Sees Manchin Open To Persuasion On $3.5 Trillion Bill EU's Gentiloni Warns ECB Tightening Too Soon Risks 'Big Mistake' SPD's Scholz Aims For Green Coalition In Next German Government UK PM Johnson To Defy Rebels Over Tax Rise To Fund Social Care Chinese Finance Regulators Vow Tighter Supervision, New Rules Japan's Vaccine Minister Favoured For PM; Woman Wins Backing Chinese Lifts The Yuan Midpoint To Strongest Level Since June Oil Extends Losses After Deep Cuts To Saudi Crude Prices For Asia Asian Equity Markets Edge Higher On Hopes For More Stimulus The Week Ahead Week Ahead-China trade, CPI lead quiet global data calendar China data will be in focus this week, as a recent run of relatively weak Chinese data has created uncertainty over the global growth outlook. August trade data leads with the focus on import and export breakdowns. CPI and PPI will also be released. It will be a very quiet week for data out of the U.S, with markets closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. With U.S. inflation in focus, the PPI release may attract more attention than normal. Other data includes weekly jobless claims and JOLT job openings. It will be a bit busier in Europe. Key euro zone data this week includes German ZEW, industrial orders and output, and trade. EZ Q2 GDP will also be released. UK data includes July GDP, IP and trade. Key data out of Japan includes trade, current account, Q2 GDP and household spending. There is no data of note out of Australia or New Zealand. Canada's calendar includes a central bank decision, Ivey PMI and employment data. Week Ahead-Central bank meetings in Europe, Australia in focus Central banks will be in focus in the coming weeks, with the ECB and RBA on the radar this week, as efforts to normalise policy have been complicated by the surge in infections due to the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. The latest Reuters poll shows the European Central Bank is expected to announce a reduction in monthly purchases from its 1.85 trillion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme this week. Many analysts believe the ECB statement and President Christine Lagarde's press conference will strike a dovish note to avoid an overreaction to the slight tapering. The Reserve Bank of Australia also meets this week. Analysts are certain the RBA won't change the cash rate from 0.10%, but there is a split between those who believe it will delay modest tapering plans and those who think the bank will go ahead. The question is whether the RBA will look past the economic damage from the lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne and instead focus on plans to reopen the economy once the vaccination rate is high enough. While most of the large Australian banks expect the RBA to pause, 15 of 25 analysts in the latest Reuters poll believe they will not delay.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby) USDJPY - 110.50/60 417m. 109.90/110.00 612m. 109.60/70 542m. EURUSD - 1.1940/50 1.01bn (604m C). 1.1890/1.1900 486m. 1.1700 512m. 1.1600 747m. GBPUSD - 1.3900 501m. AUDUSD - 0.7650 403m. AUDNZD - 1.0470/80 1.32bn (911m C). EURGBP - 0.8590 696m. EURCHF - 1.0850 456m. 1.0720 400m. USDCNH - 6.55 445m Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.19 Bullish above Edges lower as USD regains some ground in Asia EUR/USD opened 1.1888 after closing Friday at 1.1879 It moved lower through the morning when AUD/USD came under pressure Heading into the afternoon it is trading at the session low at 1.1870 Resistance is at 1.1909 where a double-top formed on Friday A failure to break 1.1909 today would end 10 days of higher daily highs Sellers are tipped just above 1.1900 to offer resistance Support is at 1.1816 where the 10 & 55-day MAs converge A break below 1.1815 would suggest a short-term top is in placeGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.39 Bullish above. Firmer USD capped, but a test of 1.3920 beckons Touch softer at the base of a 1.3852-1.3863 range with only modest flow Companies urge relaxation of immigration rules to fix UK jobs squeeze... UK government believes companies should raise wages to attract staff U.S. holiday - potential busy morning in London, then quiet afternoon likely Charts; 21 day Bolli bands contract, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict- neutral setup August rejection of lower 21 day Bolli and Thursday's 1.3782 21 DMA break Next stop 1.3919 upper 21 day Bolli band - opposite to the July/August fall Friday's London 1.3818 low and NY 1.3890 high are initial support resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 109 Bearish below USD/JPY buoyant but seen heavy from ahead of 110.00 USD/JPY seeing modest gains in Asia, 109.73 to 109.84 EBS Flows light ahead of Europe, the US Labor Day holiday tonight Offers from Japanese exporters, others eyed from ahead of 110.00 Bids on dips from around 109.50 - Japanese importers, investors Firm US yields supportive, Treasury 10s 1.267% to 1.336% post-NFP Around 1.325% currently, yield relatively high, may not fall much $610 mln in option expiries between 109.90-110.00 could help capAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.75 Bullish above Drifts lower as Dalian iron ore slides over 5% AUD/USD opened 0.7454 after closing Friday at 0.7449 It came under pressure early Asia when E-minis slipped 0.20% More pressure was exerted by a 5% fall in Dalian iron ore futures Heading into the afternoon AUD/USD is close to session low at 0.7430 Support is found at former resistance at 0.7426 A break below 0.7425 targets the 55-day MA at 0.7390 Resistance is at Friday's 0.7477 high with sellers above 0.7475 Key event this week will be RBA decision tomorrow There is a split of opinion on whether RBA will delay tapering

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-september-6th-2021"
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Dollar Edges Higher, But still Near One-Month Low After Payrolls

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Market Update – September 6 – USD off post NFP lows

Market News Today 

• USD (USDIndex 92.18) continues at lows following NFP headline miss (pushed to 91.91) – although rest of report was strong; taper expectations slipping to Nov-Dec.
• Yields held on to gains & flattened (10yr 1.322%), while
• Equities slipped ahead of long weekend  (USA500 -0.03% @ 4535, FUTS at 4538 now). Nikkei + 2% looks like Covid Minister (Taro Kono) will be new PM.
• USOil crashes following price cuts from Saudi Arabia to Asian customers. From $70.00+ on Friday down to $68.00, now.
• Gold holds Fridays gains (rallied from $1805 to $1832 peak)  trades at $1827 now.)
• Overnight – Asian stock markets were mixed, Nikkei lead markets higher on the leadership talk. Chip shortages continue to gain headline (Mercedes “through 2022”, GM factories on “idle”, CBI in UK warn of problems for “at least 2 years”. NZ to ease Covid lockdowns, cases in Australia to peak with in two weeks (emphasis now on vaccinations, – 75% of NSW/Victoria popn. has now had first vax.

Week Ahead  RBA, (Tuesday) BOC (Wednesday) and top of the shop ECB (will Ms Lagarde talk taper dates?) – key US data is PPI (Friday) and JOLTS (Wednesday). Plus EU & JPY GDP (Tuesday), Chinese inflation (Thursday) and Canadian jobs (Friday).

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 8 ticks, U.S. futures are also fractionally lower. US payroll number may have been weaker than expected in the headline, but was strong in the details and against that background, markets still seem to waiting for the ECB to announce a slight tapering in monthly asset purchase levels this week. Lagarde will play down the importance though and is likely to once again stress the forcefully dovish guidance on the rate outlook and highlight the fact that asset purchases at levels seen in the first quarter would still means sizeable support.

DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and U.S. futures are also fractionally higher. In FX markets EUR and Sterling declined against a largely stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD and Cable at 1.1872 and 1.3851 respectively. AUD & NZD gave given up some of the least two weeks gains ahead of RBA tomorrow. USDJPY has lifted to 109.80 from Fridays close at 109.67.

Today – US & Canada closed for Labor Day  German Industrial Orders, EZ & UK Construction PMIs, EZ Sentix Index.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.30%)  Slioped from 0.69% gain on Friday into 0.7445 close, to 0.7480 now. Faster MA’s now flat, MACD signal line & histogram still above 0 line but falling  RSI 53.30 and flat. Stochs rising from OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Dollar Up but Near One-Month Low Over Fed Tapering Expectations Delay

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Dollar near one-month low on bets for later Fed taper

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Key Economic Events and Reports for the Week Ahead

The key event next week - the ECB meeting, seems to be interesting. This week at least two officials who are involved in shaping the ECB's policy said EU inflation outlook allow starting discussions on the phasing out of the current major asset purchase (PEPP). At the same time, expectations that the Fed will start aggressively curtailing QE have weakened, as the NFP report in August did not live up to expectations – the growth of Payrolls was almost three times less than the forecast (235K). This means that it may take longer for the Fed to make sure that the pace of employment recovery warrants tightening of credit conditions. The risk of further narrowing of the divergence between the ECB and the Fed policies will likely be a key driver of EURUSD rally next week.Also, next week the decision on the interest rate will be made by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Australia. Mounting signals of slowdown in global growth rates will most likely force these central banks to take a less aggressive stance in tightening policy, so the currencies of these CB’s may decline. In addition, growing slack in the oil market could cast a pall on CAD’s recent strength.On Friday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will also hold a meeting on monetary policy. There is a risk of further strengthening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro, as the Bank of Russia made it clear at the last meeting that it did not complete rate hiking cycle. The bank is not expected to hike interest rate, however forward guidance could trigger additional ruble upside, in particular if it contains a hint of another rate hike in Q4.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/key-economic-events-and-reports-for-the-week-ahead-05-09-2021"
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Is this Britain’s most successful company?

What’s the most successful new British company of the last 20 years? You could make a good case for Ocado, or one of the rising fintech giants such as Wise, or for an artificial-intelligence start-up such as the recently listed Darktrace.

You could also make a compelling case for a company that we have only recently come to think of as a global business at all: Soho House. With its listing in New York now successfully completed, the company is embarking on a round of expansion that could make it one of the biggest brands in the world. 

Building a new global brand

When it reported its results last week, Membership Collective Group, as the chain is formally known, certainly showed why investors were right to back its recent initial public offering (IPO). Revenues in the second quarter were up by 118% as the group bounced back from lockdown, and its clubs started to reopen. True, there was still a net loss of $57m and it may be a while yet before it turns an actual profit, but the revenue figures are impressive and so are the plans for new clubs across the world, and the waiting list for membership of more than 63,000. With a market value of $2.2bn, if it were listed in the UK, it would be knocking on the door of the FTSE 100. 

It has come a long-way from the slightly ramshackle private members’ club for media types that first set up shop in Greek Street in 1995. In the years since then, Soho House has expanded to a chain of over 27 clubs, each of which generate roughly $25m of revenues. It plans to open another 16 over the next two years, as well as expanding into temporary office space, taking it into competition with rivals such as WeWork. At its IPO this year, it raised over $400m for expansion.

Although it is not profitable yet, there is no question that it has come up with something new. Lots of cities have members’ clubs, and of course London, New York and many others have had the fustier gentleman’s variety since Victorian times. But a global chain, with a global brand, is something new – and could be very profitable if it can be made to work. 

The problem, though, is that that will be lot harder in practice than it is in theory. Right now Soho House faces what is just about the hardest task in business: it has to take exclusivity and turn it into a huge business. The two may seem incompatible. If you are exclusive, people want to belong, but there are not many spaces. Once you become a mass-market product, there are plenty of spaces, but no one wants to join because it has lost its cachet. Soho House could be caught out by that contradiction: it has to expand to make profits, but expanding may also kill off the brand. 

Follow Mercedes, not Thorntons

It is not impossible. LVMH has been doing it for years and made itself into one of Europe’s biggest firms in the process. The French company owns brands such as Louis Vuitton, Moët & Chandon, Dior, Marc Jacobs and Bulgari. It has managed to keep all of them expanding, while maintaining their exclusive status. Mercedes has managed it as well: it sells more than two million new vehicles every year, but a Merc is still a very classy car. Apple seems to be pulling off the same trick. 

But it is not easy and lots of firms have not managed it. When it was owned by Ford, Jaguar produced a series of mediocre models that trashed the brand. It is hard to imagine anyone feels especially exclusive in a Ralph Lauren Polo shirt anymore, or one by Pierre Cardin. A bottle of Jacob’s Creek wine isn’t going to impress your dinner party guests especially, and neither will a Jamie Oliver sauce. Over the years, many brands have been pushed out into the mass market and slapped as a quick label on lots of products. It’s not long before you become about as stylish as Brut aftershave or a box of Thorntons. 

A very delicate balance has to be maintained, in other words. If Soho House can work out how to do that it can build a huge company. Shareholders are staking a lot on Soho House being one of the tiny handful that manage it. 

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Canadian dollar forecasts turn less bullish as economy stumbles

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Zloty set to pace FX gains with rate hike back in sight- Reuters poll

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Concerns Over Global Growth Push Chinese Equities Lower

Chinese stocks slid on Friday amid investor concerns over growing signs of slowing growth rates in the world's second largest economy, although rally in brokerage stocks on the news that Beijing plans to create a new stock exchange helped to pare down broad declines.Activity in China's services sector fell sharply in August due to negative impact of social curbs imposed by authorities in order contain the spread of the delta strain of coronavirus, a private study showed on Friday.Caixin purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's services sector fell to 46.7 in August from 54.9 in July, falling to the lowest level since the first wave of the pandemic.The financial sector sub-index was down 0.27%, the consumer goods sector added 1.86%, the real estate index fell 0.89%, and the health sector rose 0.52%.The ChiNext Composite Startup Index fell 1.17%.

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The charts that matter: markets shrug off taper talk

Welcome back. 

This week’s magazine looks at the US stockmarket bubble. US stocks are “wildly overpriced” on pretty much every measure, says Jeremy Grantham. A day of reckoning is surely coming, and when it does it won’t just be US stocks that suffer – everything else will come down in sympathy. 

Our other big feature looks at trading biases – the “psychological pitfalls that can part inexperienced investors from their money”. Michael Taylor lays out eight key things to be aware of. 

Read all that and more in this week’s magazine –  sign up now if you’ren ot already a subscriber.

This week’s “Too Embarrassed To Ask” video takes a look at “drawdowns”. They’re an unfortunate fact of life for pretty much every investor. But just what is a drawdown? Find out here. 

In this week’s podcast, Merryn’s talking to Sebastian Lyon of Troy Asset Management about the joys of a boring investment style, why you shouldn’t confuse ESG investing with ethical investing, plus inflation, financial repression, gold… and much more. Listen to the episode here.

Here are the links for this week’s editions of Money Morning and other web articles you may have missed:

• Tuesday Money Morning: In a “defined contribution” pension? Cheer up!
• Merryn’s blog: Why central banks should stick to controlling inflation
• Wednesday Money Morning: Everything you wanted to know about ethereum but were too afraid to ask
• Thursday Money Morning: Could the “metaverse” be the next big investment theme?
• Friday Money Morning: This growth scare will pass – but it might make the Fed stay its hand

Now for the charts of the week. 

The charts that matter 

Gold  levelled off a little after almost a month of steady rises.

Gold price chart

(Gold: three months)

The US dollar index (DXY – a measure of the strength of the dollar against a basket of the currencies of its major trading partners) dropped.

US dollar index chart

(DXY: three months)

The Chinese yuan (or renminbi) continued to see very little action (when the red line is rising, the dollar is strengthening while the yuan is weakening). 

USD/CNY currency chart

(Chinese yuan to the US dollar: since 25 Jun 2019)

The yield on the ten-year US government bond ended the week more or less where it started, despite Jerome Powell confirming plans to cut monetary stimulus later this year.

US Treasury bond yield chart

(Ten-year US Treasury yield: three months)

The yield on the Japanese ten-year bond seems to have broken out of its range.

Japanese government bond yield chart

(Ten-year Japanese government bond yield: three months)

And the yield on the ten-year German Bund was higher too, though tapered off towards the end of the week.

German Bund yield chart

(Ten-year Bund yield: three months)

Copper paused its rebound from a recent low. 

Copper price chart

(Copper: nine months)

The closely-related Aussie dollar bounced back, too.

AUD/USD currency chart

(Aussie dollar vs US dollar exchange rate: three months)

Bitcoin continued to head back to the moon, topping $50,000 for the first time since May this year.

Bitcoin price chart

(Bitcoin: three months)

US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 340,000. The four-week moving average fell by 11,750 to 355,000. 

US initial weekly jobless claims chart

(US initial jobless claims, four-week moving average: since Jan 2020)

The oil price seems to be back on its upward march, though remains some way off its July high. 

Brent crude oil price chart

(Brent crude oil: three months)

Amazon slipped back after its recent run of gains.

Amazon share price chart

(Amazon: three months)

And Tesla paused for breath, too.

Tesla share price chart

(Tesla: three months)

Have a great weekend. 

Ben

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Investors must think again about China

What’s happened?

There’s a growing sense that foreign multinationals and investors have underestimated the risks of doing business in China and overestimated the benefits. From reining in tech billionaires such as Jack Ma, to making life harder for multinationals trying to access the Chinese market while staying on the right side of Beijing, all indications are that China under Xi Jinping is increasingly prioritising absolute control by the Communist Party of China (CPC) over further economic liberalisation. The first big red flag came last November when financial regulators suddenly suspended the IPO of Ma’s Ant Financial, days before its listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Warning bells have been ringing ever since.

Such as?

One that spooked investors was the tightening in late July of regulations governing China’s $100bn private tutoring industry, banning firms that teach the school curriculum from making a profit. Specifically, the worry concerns a new ban on Chinese tutoring companies using a corporate structure known as the variable interest entity (VIE). That’s essentially a holding company aimed at circumventing the strict rules banning foreigners from owning assets in key sectors, such as technology – and it’s long been a primary channel for foreign investment. Both Beijing and big Western institutional investors, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, have until now been “happy to gloss over the risks of the strucure”, says the Financial Times. That no longer looks so wise.

What else has got people worried?

Earlier this year China passed a new data security law that forbids firms from handing over any data to foreign officials without government permission. It strengthens the authorities’ already vast powers to intervene in individual businesses, by compelling them to share data collected from social media, e-commerce, lending and other businesses, and classifying such data as a national asset. The New York listing of Chinese ride-hailing firm Didi was a salutary reminder to investors of the political/regulatory risk involved. No sooner had investors put $4.4bn into the biggest Chinese IPO in the US since Alibaba in 2014, than China’s internet regulator accused it of “serious violations of laws and regulations” in collecting and using personal information.

Why was that so important?

The developments at Didi amount to “a shock-therapy type of enforcement”, says Benjamin Qiu, a Hong Kong lawyer. “We could see more control by the state, with in-effect data nationalisation as the end result.” The Didi fiasco was a particularly “painful reality check” for any Western investors complacent enough to think that “long totalitarianism” was a smart trade, says Niall Ferguson on Bloomberg. It has been clear for years that the symbiotic relationship between China and the US is fracturing, and that the CPC’s core goal is not “global economic dominance” but retaining domestic power. As China’s demographics bite, and its growth slows, that task will get harder while the “Cold War” between China and the US gets more pronounced. All that means increased risk for investors and businesses.

How will that manifest itself?

Sometimes it will be in obvious ways. For example, with a new law aimed at punishing Western companies that comply with US sanctions – and which is expected to be extended to cover business based in Hong Kong. That could leave Western multinationals stuck between complying with US regulations and getting sued in China. On other fronts, the risks are increasingly more subtle. Take China’s cinema industry, which has bounced back strongly this year and is by far the world’s biggest theatrical marketplace. But the slice taken by US releases has slumped, according to The Hollywood Reporter – in part because the ban on foreign film releases during the peak summer period has been stricter and longer than usual in deference to the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC. Or consider the speech last month by Xi attacking wealth inequality: it sent the share prices of Europe’s big luxury goods businesses reeling (see page 5). In 2021, China’s shoppers are expected to buy 45% of all the luxury goods sold globally, according to Jefferies, up from 37% in 2019. A drive by Beijing to rein in the rich would be bad news for makers of posh handbags and investors are reassessing the risks.

Who else is suffering?

Some multinationals are already suffering from collateral damage. Ericsson, for example, the global number two maker of cellular equipment, reported in mid-July that its sales in China had plunged, and warned that its market share there was set to shrink sharply in coming months. The reason, it believes, is Sweden’s decision late last year to ban Huawei from the buildout of its 5G network. Multinationals in every industry doing business in China “are acutely aware that as the geopolitical environment worsens, all the money and effort they have put into building their businesses there could be at risk”, says Rob Powell in Newsweek. In the worst case scenario, that means confiscation. This week’s uncertainty over the status of Arm China – reported to have declared unilateral independence from its UK-based, Softbank-owned parent – will have added to the fears.

What should investors do?

Prepare for turbulence, says George Soros in the FT. Foreign investors who put money into China find it hard to recognise all these increased risks because China has confronted so many difficulties and come through. “But Xi’s China is not the China they know. He is putting in place an updated version of Mao Zedong’s party. No investor has any experience of that China because there were no stockmarkets in Mao’s time. Hence the rude awakening that awaits them.”

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/china-stockmarkets/603791/investors-must-think-again-about-china
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Sebastian Lyon: the benefits of being boring

Merryn talks to Sebastian Lyon, founder and CEO of Troy Asset Management and manager of Personal Assets Trust, on his “boring” approach to asset management. Plus, why ESG investing is not necessarily “ethical” investing; inflation and financial repression; and the point of owning gold.

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