Dollar Takes Respite Before the Fed

The RBA announced that it abandons yield curve control atthe meeting on Tuesday in light of significant inflation improvements. The newshowever failed to bolster hawkish AUD bets, as at the same time the RBA issued quitea disappointing rate hike outlook. According to the head of the RBA Lowe, it’spossible that first rate hike may be delayed to 2024. Long-dated AUD bondyields accelerated decline on this wording with AUDUSD retreating as well. Onthe technical chart for the pair, we can see two leading price channels -short-term and medium-term, while the area from which the pair was sold offtoday was an intersection of the two upper boundaries of the channels:AUDUSD poised to downside correction towards the centerline of the short-term uptrend (0.74-0.7350), which may be supported by thestrengthening of the dollar after the Fed and possibly the NFP on Friday.The dollar started the week on weaker footing, losing itsadvantage above 94 points on the dollar index (DXY). The technical pictureshows a rebound from the lower border of the uptrend on Friday, which mayindicate the completion of the bearish correction after the double top at94.50:Risk demand was supported yesterday by the news that OPECincreased production in October by half as much as planned. US ISMmanufacturing data showed that the sector increased hiring, input prices rose tomore extreme levels while new orders fell in October compared to September. Themain takeaway from the data is that supply shocks continued to push inflationhigher. At least this is true for the US manufacturing sector.The calendar of events in America today is notparticularly interesting and a wait and see attitude will probably prevail intrading before the Fed meeting, while the volatility in the main pairs islikely to subside. There is a small risk that news from Glasgow, where the 26thUN climate change conference is taking place, could cause a negative reactionfrom oil, however, the main attention of market participants is concentrated onthe meeting of central banks this week.

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Ether scales $4,600 to record high, bitcoin trails

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Dollar Down, Investors Await Fed Policy Decision

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USDJPY potential short pullback | 3 Nov 2021

Resistance: 114.666Support: 113.44Pivot: 113.98Type:Bearish ReversalPreference:Prices is on a bearish momentum. We see a potential sell entry at 113.98 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 113.44 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively prices might go higher towards our 1st resistance at 114.666 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.

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XAUUSD is on a bearish momentum! | 3 Nov 2021

Type:Bearish ReversalResistance: 1789.06Support: 1776.287Pivot: 1783.651Preference:Prices are consolidating in a bearish channel. We see potential for dip from our Pivot at 1783.651 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 1776.287 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices might climb higher towards our 1st resistance at 1789.06 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xauusd-is-on-a-bearish-momentum-or-3-nov-2021"
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Dollar stands tall as Fed heads toward taper

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White House sends top bank regulator nominee to Senate

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Taliban ban use of foreign currency in Afghanistan -spokesman

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The Aussie Dollar Dives Following RBA's More Dovish Tone

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Qualcomm Q4 Earnings Preview

American technology giant Qualcomm, a multinational that creates semiconductors and telecommunications equipment, software and wireless technology services for customers worldwide, is expected to report its earnings and revenue for its fourth quarter and fiscal 2021 results on Wednesday, November 3, 2021 after market close.

All through the year, Qualcomm has had a stellar performance, beating its earnings estimate every single quarter with the last 2 quarters’ estimate beat topping 14%, a similar story since the start of 2018. This performance is expected to continue especially after a busy quarter where Qualcomm announced the launch of the world’s first drone platform and reference design to offer 5G and AI capabilities, entered an agreement with GlobalFoundries to manufacture an advanced 5G multi-gigabit speed RF front end product to meet the increasing demand and its new partnership with Google and Renault Group to create an immersive in-vehicle experience for Renault new Megane E-Tech Electric vehicle.

The $150 billion in market cap Company submitted a bid to acquire Veoneer Inc. which will strengthen its stance in the emerging markets of driver assistance technology which puts an even brighter outlook ahead for the company whose estimated Earnings per share for the full year is expected to come in at $8.25 which is a massive 96.90% growth y/y and tops all yearly earnings since 2015 – by quite a margin as well. Revenue for the full year is expected at $33.04 billion, up from $23.53 billion y/y (40.40%), with the revenue outlook even better for next year.

Qualcomm’s EPS History and Forecast

Zack’s Q4 consensus EPS estimate sits at $2.26, up 55.86% y/y from $1.45 and more importantly beats the previous quarter earnings that printed at $1.92/share. Zacks’ most accurate estimates is a notch higher at $2.27 which shows upward revisions in recent earnings estimates by analysts (the idea is that more recent information could be more accurate and can be a better predictor) as the stock holds a positive ESP of 0.35%. The revenue estimate for the quarter sits at $8.88 billion, up 6.36% from 8.35 billion in the same quarter last year earning it a #3 (Hold) Zacks’ rating.

Considering that Qualcomm has a history of beating estimates and the positive developments from the company in recent months, one can argue that another beat may be on the cards once again. While the consensus estimates is an important gauge of the company’s earnings picture, how much it deviates from the actual number could have an immediate impact on the share price either positively or negatively but the subsequent comments from the company’s management will determine the sustainability of such moves.

Qualcomm’s share price has maintained a lower trend for most of 2021 but when compared to the upside from early 2020, it is more of a pullback rather than a downtrend. After topping $168.00 in late January, #Qualcomm has fallen about 27% till it found support at $122.00 which held all through the year, testing in March, May and October. Currently  it has been struggling at $133.50 for about 2 weeks now as the price needs a major catalyst to break through that level – and what better than a beat in earnings as well as revenue, coupled with solid and positive forward guidance by the Company.

#QUALCOMM, Daily

The MACD is stuck at the midway line although from negative territory is showing a more neutral stance at the moment, in line with the struggle around $133.5, but the RSI remains above 50 which puts a more recent positive trend on the table. If we get a beat in revenue and earnings and finally clear out the $133.5 level, the next resistance zone comes in around $139.00 while a miss could see us revisit this year’s low. One key thing to note is that despite the solid earnings we have had in the previous quarters this year, #Qualcomm has not been able to maintain a consistent uptrend and has instead traded sideways for most of the year. So focus will be more on the subsequent comments from the company for sustainability in the moves rather than just on the headline numbers.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Heritage Adisa

Market Analyst – HF Educational office – Nigeria

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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EURGBP: Rounding Bottom or Just a Dead Cat Bounce?

The FOMC and BoE meetings are the highlights this week as tightening speculation has been scaled back somewhat and markets hedge their bets ahead of the banks’ announcements tomorrow and Thursday. In recent weeks, the market has developed expectations of a 15 basis point increase in bank interest rates from the BoE to 0.25%, while expectations from the market have contributed to the appreciation of Sterling against several currencies over the past few weeks.

As BoE chief economist Pill effectively confirmed, the meeting will be a ‘live’ one, which means officials will discuss whether to hike the Bank Rate, which currently stands at 0.10%. The updated quarterly policy report will bring new projections for growth and inflation outlooks and against the background of the latest developments it is likely to highlight the risk that the uptick in prices will be longer lasting than initially anticipated. As the BoE has made clear that it will hike rates before reducing asset holdings, speculation of an early move has picked up. Dovish comments from MPC member Tenreyro highlighted that not everyone is convinced that a rate hike is necessary at this point, but the tenor of comments from BoE governor Bailey and chief economist Pill has been quite hawkish and there is some risk of an early move, or at least a very clear signal of a hike in December.

So far the Pound has struggled against the Yen and Euro ahead of Thursday’s BoE meeting, and against a number of other major currencies, which could be a sign the market is recalibrating their expectations. Markets are concerned that an early lift off in rates could hamper a still fragile economy.

EURGBP, D1

The EURGBP seems to be forming the chart pattern of a series of price movements that graphically form the letter “U”. These patterns, known as the “rounding bottom”, are generally found at the end of an extended downtrend and signal a reversal in a long-term price movement. The time frame of this pattern can vary from a few weeks to several months and is considered by many traders to be a rare occurrence, but in the case of the EURGBP it only lasts a few days so it is likely only temporary, as the seller pressure is still visible below the 200-day MA. Ideally, volume and price would move in tandem, with volume confirming price action, and again in the case of EURGBP there hasn’t been a significant increase in daily volume.

EURGBP

EURGBP,H4

The EURGBP has broken the resistance formed from 2 weekly highs (neckline) which looks quite strong and crossed above the 200-period EMA by recovering the downside around the 38.2% FR level. Further movement possibly requires a retest of the neckline at the range 0.8475 to continue the temporary rebound at 0.8402 towards the 50.0% and 61.8% retracement levels. There are indications of the RSI entering the overbought level. A price move below the neckline will confirm the advance from the rebound only as a “dead cat bounce” pattern and the price will retest the 0.8402 low again.

However, the price pattern is only a picture of historical data that does not represent the same event in the future; it could be right or wrong considering the dynamics of transactions that develop along with various factors of economic data and bank policies that affect the point of view of market participants.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi and Adi Phangestu

Market Analysts

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Meme coins can be a laugh or even make you money – but they’re also scam central

Cryptocurrencies such as Shiba Inu and Doge are jokes that have created billionaires. But there's a more sinister side to so-called "meme coins", says Dominic Frisby, that could cost you dear.

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​USDJPY potential for further dips! | 2 Nov 2021

Type:Bearish BreakoutResistance: 114.331Pivot: 113.896Support: 133.245Preference:Prices are on a bearish momentum and is consolidating in a parallel channel. We see potential for prices to dip from our Pivot at 113.896 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 113.245 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices might climb towards 1st resistance at 114.331 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-potential-for-further-dips-or-2-nov-2021"
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Tickmill Launches its First Competition for Cyprus Data Scientists

Over the last few years, algorithmic traders have become a large part of Tickmill’s client base. The importance of machine learning and data science continues to grow in trading, so we’ve decided to take a step forward in this space by organising a machine learning competition for the Cypriot academic community. While we value the opportunity to support local academia, we also believe it is key to remain at the forefront of this exciting field to better understand the world so many of our clients live in every day; thus, better serving them overall. The competition focuses on students within the Republic of Cyprus to enable them to hone their skills in machine learning. We’ve set the students a task to predict the value of a financial asset using a financial data time series combined with several features provided by our Quant Team. Ultimately, we’re going to evaluate the student submissions against the ground truth which has been developed in house by our experts. From there, we’ll be awarding first, second and third prizes to the students who have the closest scores. We’re awarding first place with a 5,000 EUR prize followed by 3,000 EUR and 2,000 EUR for second and third place, respectively. Our head of Quantitative Research, Chariton Christou explained the thinking behind the competition, stating that “Tickmill’s forecasting competition offers a unique opportunity to students by allowing them to experiment with real world financial time series data. It’ll give students who are considering a career in quantitative analysis with a broker the insight into some of the tasks that we are trying to solve so we can better serve our clients.” Due to this, it’s important to us that we begin to develop a deeper relationship with the younger generation in Cyprus and encourage them to consider careers within the financial industry with technology and data at its forefront. Chariton went on to explain that “as a team, we wanted to launch this kind of competition a long time ago. It allows us to identify future talent in the data science field. University students can apply state of the art machine learning models to predict the market; one of the most difficult tasks in Machine Learning.” He concluded that one of the main benefits to both Students and the academic community overall is that “students are exposed to solving real world data problems and have access to previously unobtainable yet realistic financial data. It’ll also allow students to put their extensive knowledge to use while providing a comparison of their skills against students from other universities. Overall, universities will be able to benchmark their students and develop a close relationship with a large broker to bridge the gap between academia and industry. It’s a super exciting time to be a machine learning student in Cyprus!” Find out more about the competition and its terms and conditions by clicking here.

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