XAUUSD is on a bearish momentum! | 3 Nov 2021

Type:Bearish ReversalResistance: 1789.06Support: 1776.287Pivot: 1783.651Preference:Prices are consolidating in a bearish channel. We see potential for dip from our Pivot at 1783.651 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 1776.287 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices might climb higher towards our 1st resistance at 1789.06 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xauusd-is-on-a-bearish-momentum-or-3-nov-2021"
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Dollar stands tall as Fed heads toward taper

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-stands-tall-as-fed-heads-toward-taper-2665297
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White House sends top bank regulator nominee to Senate

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/white-house-sends-top-bank-regulator-nominee-to-senate-2664904
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Taliban ban use of foreign currency in Afghanistan -spokesman

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The Aussie Dollar Dives Following RBA's More Dovish Tone

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Qualcomm Q4 Earnings Preview

American technology giant Qualcomm, a multinational that creates semiconductors and telecommunications equipment, software and wireless technology services for customers worldwide, is expected to report its earnings and revenue for its fourth quarter and fiscal 2021 results on Wednesday, November 3, 2021 after market close.

All through the year, Qualcomm has had a stellar performance, beating its earnings estimate every single quarter with the last 2 quarters’ estimate beat topping 14%, a similar story since the start of 2018. This performance is expected to continue especially after a busy quarter where Qualcomm announced the launch of the world’s first drone platform and reference design to offer 5G and AI capabilities, entered an agreement with GlobalFoundries to manufacture an advanced 5G multi-gigabit speed RF front end product to meet the increasing demand and its new partnership with Google and Renault Group to create an immersive in-vehicle experience for Renault new Megane E-Tech Electric vehicle.

The $150 billion in market cap Company submitted a bid to acquire Veoneer Inc. which will strengthen its stance in the emerging markets of driver assistance technology which puts an even brighter outlook ahead for the company whose estimated Earnings per share for the full year is expected to come in at $8.25 which is a massive 96.90% growth y/y and tops all yearly earnings since 2015 – by quite a margin as well. Revenue for the full year is expected at $33.04 billion, up from $23.53 billion y/y (40.40%), with the revenue outlook even better for next year.

Qualcomm’s EPS History and Forecast

Zack’s Q4 consensus EPS estimate sits at $2.26, up 55.86% y/y from $1.45 and more importantly beats the previous quarter earnings that printed at $1.92/share. Zacks’ most accurate estimates is a notch higher at $2.27 which shows upward revisions in recent earnings estimates by analysts (the idea is that more recent information could be more accurate and can be a better predictor) as the stock holds a positive ESP of 0.35%. The revenue estimate for the quarter sits at $8.88 billion, up 6.36% from 8.35 billion in the same quarter last year earning it a #3 (Hold) Zacks’ rating.

Considering that Qualcomm has a history of beating estimates and the positive developments from the company in recent months, one can argue that another beat may be on the cards once again. While the consensus estimates is an important gauge of the company’s earnings picture, how much it deviates from the actual number could have an immediate impact on the share price either positively or negatively but the subsequent comments from the company’s management will determine the sustainability of such moves.

Qualcomm’s share price has maintained a lower trend for most of 2021 but when compared to the upside from early 2020, it is more of a pullback rather than a downtrend. After topping $168.00 in late January, #Qualcomm has fallen about 27% till it found support at $122.00 which held all through the year, testing in March, May and October. Currently  it has been struggling at $133.50 for about 2 weeks now as the price needs a major catalyst to break through that level – and what better than a beat in earnings as well as revenue, coupled with solid and positive forward guidance by the Company.

#QUALCOMM, Daily

The MACD is stuck at the midway line although from negative territory is showing a more neutral stance at the moment, in line with the struggle around $133.5, but the RSI remains above 50 which puts a more recent positive trend on the table. If we get a beat in revenue and earnings and finally clear out the $133.5 level, the next resistance zone comes in around $139.00 while a miss could see us revisit this year’s low. One key thing to note is that despite the solid earnings we have had in the previous quarters this year, #Qualcomm has not been able to maintain a consistent uptrend and has instead traded sideways for most of the year. So focus will be more on the subsequent comments from the company for sustainability in the moves rather than just on the headline numbers.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Heritage Adisa

Market Analyst – HF Educational office – Nigeria

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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EURGBP: Rounding Bottom or Just a Dead Cat Bounce?

The FOMC and BoE meetings are the highlights this week as tightening speculation has been scaled back somewhat and markets hedge their bets ahead of the banks’ announcements tomorrow and Thursday. In recent weeks, the market has developed expectations of a 15 basis point increase in bank interest rates from the BoE to 0.25%, while expectations from the market have contributed to the appreciation of Sterling against several currencies over the past few weeks.

As BoE chief economist Pill effectively confirmed, the meeting will be a ‘live’ one, which means officials will discuss whether to hike the Bank Rate, which currently stands at 0.10%. The updated quarterly policy report will bring new projections for growth and inflation outlooks and against the background of the latest developments it is likely to highlight the risk that the uptick in prices will be longer lasting than initially anticipated. As the BoE has made clear that it will hike rates before reducing asset holdings, speculation of an early move has picked up. Dovish comments from MPC member Tenreyro highlighted that not everyone is convinced that a rate hike is necessary at this point, but the tenor of comments from BoE governor Bailey and chief economist Pill has been quite hawkish and there is some risk of an early move, or at least a very clear signal of a hike in December.

So far the Pound has struggled against the Yen and Euro ahead of Thursday’s BoE meeting, and against a number of other major currencies, which could be a sign the market is recalibrating their expectations. Markets are concerned that an early lift off in rates could hamper a still fragile economy.

EURGBP, D1

The EURGBP seems to be forming the chart pattern of a series of price movements that graphically form the letter “U”. These patterns, known as the “rounding bottom”, are generally found at the end of an extended downtrend and signal a reversal in a long-term price movement. The time frame of this pattern can vary from a few weeks to several months and is considered by many traders to be a rare occurrence, but in the case of the EURGBP it only lasts a few days so it is likely only temporary, as the seller pressure is still visible below the 200-day MA. Ideally, volume and price would move in tandem, with volume confirming price action, and again in the case of EURGBP there hasn’t been a significant increase in daily volume.

EURGBP

EURGBP,H4

The EURGBP has broken the resistance formed from 2 weekly highs (neckline) which looks quite strong and crossed above the 200-period EMA by recovering the downside around the 38.2% FR level. Further movement possibly requires a retest of the neckline at the range 0.8475 to continue the temporary rebound at 0.8402 towards the 50.0% and 61.8% retracement levels. There are indications of the RSI entering the overbought level. A price move below the neckline will confirm the advance from the rebound only as a “dead cat bounce” pattern and the price will retest the 0.8402 low again.

However, the price pattern is only a picture of historical data that does not represent the same event in the future; it could be right or wrong considering the dynamics of transactions that develop along with various factors of economic data and bank policies that affect the point of view of market participants.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi and Adi Phangestu

Market Analysts

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Meme coins can be a laugh or even make you money – but they’re also scam central

Cryptocurrencies such as Shiba Inu and Doge are jokes that have created billionaires. But there's a more sinister side to so-called "meme coins", says Dominic Frisby, that could cost you dear.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/bitcoin-crypto/604048/meme-coins-squid-game-cryptocurrency-scam
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​USDJPY potential for further dips! | 2 Nov 2021

Type:Bearish BreakoutResistance: 114.331Pivot: 113.896Support: 133.245Preference:Prices are on a bearish momentum and is consolidating in a parallel channel. We see potential for prices to dip from our Pivot at 113.896 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 113.245 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices might climb towards 1st resistance at 114.331 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-potential-for-further-dips-or-2-nov-2021"
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Tickmill Launches its First Competition for Cyprus Data Scientists

Over the last few years, algorithmic traders have become a large part of Tickmill’s client base. The importance of machine learning and data science continues to grow in trading, so we’ve decided to take a step forward in this space by organising a machine learning competition for the Cypriot academic community. While we value the opportunity to support local academia, we also believe it is key to remain at the forefront of this exciting field to better understand the world so many of our clients live in every day; thus, better serving them overall. The competition focuses on students within the Republic of Cyprus to enable them to hone their skills in machine learning. We’ve set the students a task to predict the value of a financial asset using a financial data time series combined with several features provided by our Quant Team. Ultimately, we’re going to evaluate the student submissions against the ground truth which has been developed in house by our experts. From there, we’ll be awarding first, second and third prizes to the students who have the closest scores. We’re awarding first place with a 5,000 EUR prize followed by 3,000 EUR and 2,000 EUR for second and third place, respectively. Our head of Quantitative Research, Chariton Christou explained the thinking behind the competition, stating that “Tickmill’s forecasting competition offers a unique opportunity to students by allowing them to experiment with real world financial time series data. It’ll give students who are considering a career in quantitative analysis with a broker the insight into some of the tasks that we are trying to solve so we can better serve our clients.” Due to this, it’s important to us that we begin to develop a deeper relationship with the younger generation in Cyprus and encourage them to consider careers within the financial industry with technology and data at its forefront. Chariton went on to explain that “as a team, we wanted to launch this kind of competition a long time ago. It allows us to identify future talent in the data science field. University students can apply state of the art machine learning models to predict the market; one of the most difficult tasks in Machine Learning.” He concluded that one of the main benefits to both Students and the academic community overall is that “students are exposed to solving real world data problems and have access to previously unobtainable yet realistic financial data. It’ll also allow students to put their extensive knowledge to use while providing a comparison of their skills against students from other universities. Overall, universities will be able to benchmark their students and develop a close relationship with a large broker to bridge the gap between academia and industry. It’s a super exciting time to be a machine learning student in Cyprus!” Find out more about the competition and its terms and conditions by clicking here.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/tickmill-launches-its-first-competition-for-cyprus-data-scientists"
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Earning Season: The Estée Lauder Companies Inc

The Estée Lauder Companies, has 60,000 employees with more than 1600 independent stores in 150 countries and a market capitalization of $117.55 bln which ranks  it #213 on the Fortune 500. It recently announced that it has signed an agreement to increase its investment in Canada-based vertically integrated multi-brand company DECIEM, including The Ordinary and NIOD. It

The company’s top sales segments are skin care products, followed by makeup,  fragrances and  hair products, which have earned a current total of $16.22 billion in net revenue with a goal of over $19B by year-end. It is expected to report organic growth of net sales of between 11% and 13% in the quarter, with adjusted earnings increased from 11.04%. On the other hand, management expects operating expenses to increase in the first fiscal quarter due to investments in the reopening (after staffing cuts and store closures) and the rebound in traditional retail around the world after the pandemic.

Estée Lauder Net Sales Worldwide 2010-2021, by Product Category
Source: https://www.statista.com/

The Estée Lauder Companies plans to report its earnings today (November 2) before the market opens and it is likely to see growth. An EPS of $1.70 is estimated, which would be 17.94% year-on-year, and income of $4.25B with 1 revision up and 15 down in the last 90 days.

Zacks ranks the Estée Lauder Companies  #3 (“Hold”) and within the Top 40% of the cosmetics industry (#101 out of #251), with an ESP earnings of +0.38% from 48.7% in the last four quarters and from 52.9% in the last reported quarter. The most accurate EPS estimate is for $1.68 with $1.67  the current consensus, after  the same quarter last year was $1.44, while quarterly revenue is set at $4.235B suggesting an 18.9% increase of the figure reported in the quarter of the previous year.

Q3 2021 Earnings per Share Estimate
Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/el/earnings

On October 28, The Estée Lauder Companies announced key leadership appointments for its international businesses. These appointments will come into effect on February 1, 2022, due to the retirement of Cedric Prouvé next June 2022. One of the outstanding appointments will be that of his successor Peter Jueptner, current president in Europe, Middle East and Africa, to international president as part of the Executive Leadership Team Alignment (ELTA) while remaining part of the Executive Leadership Team (ELT) and will report directly to Fabrizio Freda, current president and CEO. In turn, EMEA Vice President and Managing Director of Markets, Nadine Graf, will be appointed Senior Vice President, Managing Director of EMEA and will join the company’s ELT, succeeding and reporting directly to Peter.

“We are proud of the exceptional depth and quality of internal talent throughout our organization and the ELC remains committed to investing and growing our talent around the world. Now that Cedric enters well-deserved retirement, we are pleased to elevate Peter and Nadine, two dynamic, internally trained and experienced leaders, to these more responsible roles.” “Peter and Nadine each have extensive leadership experience first-hand in our regions and subsidiaries and enormous global experience in all aspects of prestigious beauty, making them uniquely qualified to lead our winning international and EMEA businesses, respectively.” – Fabrizio Freda, President and CEO

Estée Lauder announced on October 28 that it joined the sustainability challenge of the International Space Station National Laboratory as an exclusive partner, providing funding for the award-winning proposals that will be evaluated by a panel of expert judges on March 19 of next year at a Sustainability Challenge event that will be held at the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex. The project addresses the issue of plastic waste and focuses on reducing the introduction of plastic waste into the environment, the search for raw materials and alternative routes for polymer production beyond petrochemicals and the reduction of the manufacture of virgin plastics based on the research of biopolymers and environmentally responsible plastics alternatives as well as technology that help to improve the environment. In addition, the company has committed to having  75-100% of its containers enter the 5 R’s rule (Reduce, repair, recover, reuse, recycle) to be an ecologically friendly company by 2025.

“We are proud to be the exclusive partner of the ISS National Lab Sustainability Challenge, which funds research into forward-thinking plastics alternatives.”
—————————————
“As a world leader in the industry of beauty, we are committed to promoting scientific research and innovation for more sustainable business practices. We are excited to be part of an initiative that could be truly transformative for our brand, our beloved consumers, and the future of our planet.”- Stéphane de La Faverie, Global Brand President, Estée Lauder & AERIN, and Group President, The Estée Lauder Companies.

#EsteeLauder H4

#EsteeLauder has been maintaining a strong bullish rally since the beginning of February 2020 from its support of $150 to mark all-time highs in September at $347.56. From this historical maximum, the price fell to its psychological support of $300 without breaking it and bouncing until reaching highs at $333.52, a resistance where it marked highs in July. The current price is $325.44 with a bounce to the psychological support of $320. Resistances are at $333.52, historical highs and finally the psychological level $350. It currently stands at $320 already with a test of the psychological level and key $300, previous lows at $280 and up to the $250-$260 range. The price maintains the bullish channel with 2 false breaks of the bullish guideline in September and October. The price remains above the 21-, 50- and 100-period SMAs with a golden cross to the downside in September.

ADX has been below 25 since September, at 16.62, +DI at 14.87 and -DI at 18.70.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Aldo Zapien.

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Mexico

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

1. https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EL/earnings
2. https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/EL
3. https://www.elcompanies.com/en/who-we-are/at-a-glance
4. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211028005742/en/
5. https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/estee-lauder-joins-the-international-space-station-national-labs-sustainability
6. https://www.elcompanies.com/es/news-and-media/newsroom/press-releases/2021/10-28-2021-121518103
7. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/el/earnings
8. https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1819966/whats-in-store-for-the-estee-lauder-companies-el-q1-earnings?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID03-txt-1819966
9. https://newsfragancias.com/profesionales/estee-lauder-ajusta-su-estructura-recortes-covid-19/

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Pfizer Q3 to present rise

Pfizer’s third-quarter earnings report is due today (November 2, 2021). Considering the previous quarterly report, this guide will forecast the company’s Q3 earnings report. For the second quarter of 2021, Pfizer’s sales increased by 92% to $19 billion, compared to $9.86 billion in the same quarter last year.

For the quarter ending July 4, 2021, operating revenue increased by 86%, or $8.5 billion.Revenues grew to $11.1 billion after subtracting the Covid-19 vaccine, BNT162b2, showing a 10% rise in operational growth. The vaccine was co-developed by Pfizer and BioNTech ^[1].

As governments strive to ramp up efforts to battle the current COVID-19 pandemic, Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine has been disseminated throughout the world. More than 1 billion doses of the vaccine have already been administered globally, according to the company. Pfizer highlighted that this operational increase in Q2 2021, excluding the Covid-19 vaccine, builds on a comparable business’s operational growth of 6% the previous year.

In the second quarter of 2021, reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.98, up 58% from $0.62 the previous quarter, while adjusted diluted EPS was $1.07, up from $0.62 in the second quarter of 2020. Vaccines revenue increased to $9.2 billion in Q2 2021, up from $1.2 billion the previous quarter ^[1]. Pfizer lifted its sales outlook for the full year 2021 from $70.5 billion to $72.5 billion while adjusted diluted EPS climbed to $3.95 to $4.05.

The BNT162b2 vaccination alone produced $7.8 billion in direct sales and alliance revenues in the second quarter of this year. In addition, revenues in the Oncology and Rare Disease sectors climbed 19% to $3.14 billion and 32% to $895 million, respectively. The Inflammation and Immunology segment’s revenue fell by 9% to $1.04 billion in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the Internal Medicine and Hospital sectors generated $2.4 billion and $2.25 billion in sales ^[1].

Based on supply agreements signed by the firm between April and July of this year, sales estimates for BNT162b2 for the year have risen to over $33.5 billion. The income includes the 2.1 billion vaccination doses that will be delivered this year.

It’s worth noting that the drug giant has had a mixed track record, with earnings beating estimates in three of the previous four quarters while missing in one. On average, the company’s four-quarter profit surprise is 5.55 % ^[2].

PFIZER Stock Analysis

After reaching an all-time high on August 18, Pfizer stock has been sliding down. On October 6, the stock reached its recent low at 41, the level previously seen in July this year. However, it did make a slight recovery afterward and is now trading at 43.74.

On the daily chart, the price is slightly above the 100-day MA, and the MACD is just above its neutral level, suggesting a neutral trend.

The next resistance for the stock lies near 44, which it did manage to cross at the end of September. If the price breaks this level, it could go towards the next resistance at 50, close to its all-time high.

On the other hand, the stock’s support lies near 40. If the price breaches this level, it could further dip towards the 37 mark ^[5].

1. https://investors.pfizer.com/financials/quarterly-reports/default.aspx
2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-pfe-keep-earnings-streak-132801650.html

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Adnan Rehman

Market Analyst – Regional Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

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Duke Royalty: a princely return for income investors

Britain’s only listed royalty-finance company chooses its clientele wisely, making it a compelling income play

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Stablecoins: the future of money

This form of cryptocurrency might not yet be as well-known as bitcoin, but could prove more significant in the long term. Charlie Morris, founder of ByteTree.com, explains why.

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