Booking Holdings stock down ahead of Q3 release

Booking Holdings Inc. (#BookingHolding) is a booking agent for aircraft, cruise ships, car rentals, restaurants and vacation packages. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Wednesday, Nov. 3, after the market close. Zacks is forecasting sales of $4.16 billion, above the $2.64 billion in the prior-year quarter and the highest in the past 7 quarters (with 7 quarterly forecasts lower than the actual reported numbers) while the projected return is $31.56 per share, above the $12.27 in the prior-year quarter after consecutive losses in the previous three quarters.

Booking Holdings is a major travel agency operating through a number of booking and travel websites, including Booking.com, Agoda, OpenTable and Rentalcars.com, and the company has also acquired travel media companies Kayak and Momondo. According to its Q2 report, the company’s flight bookings increased 120% compared to the same quarter a year earlier and bookings rose 59% compared to Q1, mainly driven by vaccination progress and relaxation of travel restrictions in European countries and the US, while bookings in Asia for Q2 were worse than Q1.

For the third quarter, Booking Holdings’ revenue is expected to continue to grow from the second quarter, driven by rising travel trends including the relaxation of additional restrictions in European countries (Western European countries have higher vaccination rates than the United States) and some areas of Asian countries. Jefferies analysts raised their Booking Holdings price target to “Buy”, from $2,800.00 to $2,850.00. However, the rise in cases from the delta variant late in the third quarter could be a drag on the company’s overall revenue.

Although the company’s operating results have declined significantly, compared to the pre-pandemic levels, the company’s share price has continued to rise. This was partly due to the oversupply of liquidity in the market as a result of the central banks’ stimulus measures (100 hedge funds held the company before the end of the second quarter). It is now trading around the Q2 high of $2,480.00, well below the 52-week high of $2,540.00. The first resistance will be $2,540, and the next target will be at the upper channel line, or Fibo 161.8 level at $2,800 (drag from Q1 high to Q2 low). There will be a first support at the MA200 at $2,295 and next support at the quarter’s low zone at $2,060.00.

Although travel restrictions around the globe are relaxing, the number of people infected is still high. For example, Thailand announced it was accepting tourists from 63 countries on November 1, while the number of daily infections in the country is at 7,574 cases (November 2) with 64.28% of the population vaccinated with a first dose and 47.20% having received both doses. If more infections are found after opening the country there is a  risk the government may decide to shut the country down again.

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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Are investors doomed?

Bearish sentiment is rife in the equity markets. And there are plenty of good reasons for that. But the biggest risk of all may be of a bond market crash. Max King explains why.

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$9.5 billion spent using Chinese central bank's digital currency - official

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Is your business struggling to pay back Covid loans? Here's what to do

A third of small companies fear they may struggle to return state aid. Here's what to do if you're finding it hard.

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Zloty seen leading gains as rate hikes support central European currencies - Reuters poll

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Dollar Flat Ahead of Key Federal Reserve Meeting

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More trouble ahead for erratic emerging market currencies - Reuters poll

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Rate differentials set to gently jostle strong U.S. dollar: Reuters poll

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Daily Market Outlook, November 3, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, November 3, 2021 Overnight Headlines US Spending Bill Shows Progress In House; Sticking Points Remain Manchin Outlines Concerns Over Biden Agenda; Says Deal Possible Biden Administration Will Announce Fed Chair Pick Fairly Quickly Republican Youngkin Takes Virginia Election In A Blow To Biden Belgium PM De Croo: Europe's Green Strategy Is A Trade Weapon UK PM Plays Down Rift With France Over Brexit Fishing Licenses China Boosts Cash Injection Amid Maturity Wall, Economic Risks China's October Services Activity Expands At Faster Clip: Caixin China's Latest Covid Outbreak Its Most Widespread Since Wuhan Japan Looks To Resume Issuing Long-Term Business Visas: Nikkei New Zealand Jobless Rate Falls To 14-Year Low As Hiring Surges Australian Dollar Upset By Dovish RBA, Kiwi Gets Jobs Cheer Oil Prices Fall As Industry Data Shows Big Build In US Inventory Chinese Stocks Fall After Premier Warns Economy Faces Pressure The Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning and European and US equity futures are also down as markets wait for today’s US Federal Reserve announcement. In China, the unofficial Caixin PMI services index unexpectedly rose to a three-month high in October. Today’s US Federal Reserve briefing is the first of two highly important monetary policy updates over the next couple of days. In his last comments before the Fed started its pre-meeting purdah period, Fed Chair Powell said that now was the time to start tapering asset purchases and so a formal announcement today seems inevitable. Less certain is the path of tapering. Until recently it was generally assumed that the Fed would announce an initial reduction of $15bn to its $120bn monthly programme. With similar sized reductions in the subsequent months, that would end the process around mid-2022. However, more recently some Fed policymakers have said that they favour a faster rate of reduction. If the Fed does opt for a quicker pace of tapering, or even indicate that the pace may pick up later, this will be seen as a more-hawkish signal that it is potentially readying itself for an earlier than previously indicated rise in interest rates. Aside from this possible signal, the Fed is unlikely to provide much new guidance on interest rates. In his pre-blackout comments, Powell also said that he was not yet ready to start discussing rate increases. That suggests that while today’s policy statement and Powell’s press conference will stress remaining vigilant regarding the rise in inflation and the need to act if necessary, the Fed will not go further at this point. Indeed, Powell is likely to repeat that the bulk of the current rise in inflation is “transitory” and that the ‘bar’ in terms of the evidence they want to see to justify a rate hike is much higher than it was for tapering asset purchases. So now seems likely to maintain a less hawkish policy stance than that taken by a number of other central banks including probably the Bank of England tomorrow. Today’s data calendar will probably be overshadowed by the Fed update. The October PMI services reports for the UK and the Eurozone are second estimates that are not expected to be revised. However, the US October ISM services report is new data. It may slip from September’s level reflecting ongoing supply side constraints including recruitment issues but will probably still be at a high level. Longer dated US and UK bond yields are both slightly lower ahead of today’s announcement. Meanwhile, in currency markets the US dollar is close to recent highs against both the euro and sterling. The pound has edged up marginally against the euro overnight but is still below last week’s level despite expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates tomorrow.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.1550 (494M), 1.1585-1.1600 (1.1BLN), 1.1625 (364M)1.1650-55 (565M)GBP/USD: 1.3550 (544M), 1.3615 (821M), 1.3650 (700M)EUR/GBP: 0.8400 (400M), 0.7465 (440M)AUD/USD: 0.7350 (742M), 0.7425 (228M), 0.7445-50 (267M), 0.7525 (400M)USD/CAD: 1.2350 (420M), 1.2425 (293M), 1.2450 (920M), 1.2555 (450M)USD/JPY: 113.50-55 (350M), 113.75 (750M), 114.00 (485M), 114.30 (580M)USD/SEK: 8.5800 (800M)This week's larger FX option strike expiriesThe hedging of FX option strikes can influence FX price action if nearby, and more so when the strikes are large and soon to expire, so it's worth being armed with this information in advance.There's nothing substantial in USD/JPY until the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement on Thursday – $1.2-billion 113.00, $1.7-billion 114.00, $1.5-billion 114.30, $1-billion 115.00, and $850-million strikes at 115.30. Friday has $1.2-billion at 113.70, $600-million at 114.25, and $841-million at 115.00.The biggest EUR/USD strike is Tuesday at 1.1585 on 1.6-billion euros, with 810-million at 116.45, and 1.2-billion euros at 1.1495-1.1500. Wednesday has 900-million euros between 1.1585-1.1600. Thursday has 600-million euros at 1.1500, 1-billion 1.1515-25, and 685-million euros at 1.1550. Friday has 800-million euros between 1.1560-75.GBP/USD's biggest strikes are on Wednesday – 544-million pounds at 1.3550. 571-million at 1.3615 and 476-million pounds at 1.3650. Thursday has 460-million pounds at 1.3825. EUR/GBP has 581-million euros at 0.8440 and 440-million at 0.8525 Tuesday. Wednesday has 400-million at 0.8400, and 440-million at 0.8465. Thursday has 780-million euros at 0.8520-25, and Friday has 1-billion euros at 0.8440, and 444-million euros at 0.8550.The biggest AUD/USD strikes are Wednesday at 0.7350 on A$742-million, Thursday at 0.7500 on A$694-million, and Friday at 0.7500 on A$465-million. USD/CAD has $747-million at 1.2350 Monday .... Wednesday has $900-million at 1.2450. Thursday at 1.2420 on $500-million, and $1.2-billion between 1.2555-75. There are $700-million between 1.2375-1.2400 Friday, along with $760-million 1.2500-05.1.5-billion euros of a EUR/SEK strikes at 10.27 look unlikely to come in to play on Wednesday, but look out for $800-million USD/SEK at 8.5800 that day.Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.17 Bullish above Consolidates ahead of key Fed decision EUR/USD opened -0.24% at 1.1579 after USD broadly moved higher In a quiet Asian session the pair traded in a 1.1575/87 range Heading into the afternoon it was trading just below 1.1585 Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 1.1609 and yesterday's 1.1613 high Bids are tipped 1.1535/45 with support at trend low at 1.1522 Next move will be determined by the tone of the FOMC meeting If Fed message more hawkish than expected EUR/USD will be vulnerableGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.37 Bullish above. GBP/USD holds close to three – week low pre – Fed event risk Cable has traded a 26 pip range thus far Wednesday, 1.3606-1.3632 1.3606 was also Tuesday's low. 1.3606 is the lowest level since Oct 13 Recent GBP weakness influenced by Brexit risks 1.3644 (Monday's low) is now a resistance level, pre-1.3669 (Friday's low) Large 1.3615 and 1.3650 option expiries for the 10am ET NY cut Overnight FX option expiry now captures Fed and BoE policy announcements Related implied volatility gains flag increased actual FX volatility risk Option holders want actual volatility to outperform implied volatility GBP/USD overnight vol now 14.5 from 9.0 prior, EUR/GBP 12.0 from 7.0 GBP/USD o/n straddle break-even now $82-pips, from $51-pips either direction EUR/GBP o/n straddle break-even now £42-pips, from £25-pips either direction These levels highs since March, so clearly aware of heightened FX riskUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below Soft but mid range ahead of the FOMC -0.05% towards the base of a 113.85-114.01 range - low key - Tokyo holiday FOMC outlook and forecasts key for the next U.S. dollar move Technically, choppy consolidation below 114.69 October high continues Horizontal Tenkan and Kijun lines support further range trading 113.26 late October base and 114.69 October high are the range parameters 113.46 London low and Tokyo's 114.13 high Tuesday first support resistanceAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.75 Bullish above Gives back early gains in quiet session ahead of Fed AUD//USD opened -1.20% at 0.7429 after longs bailed out after RBA It rallied to 0.7440 early Asia before sellers returned to cap Heading into the afternoon it is settled around 0.7430 AUD/USD support is at 38.2 of the 0.7170/0.7555 move at 0.7408 Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.7489 with sellers ahead of 0.7450 Multiple fails at 200-day MA (0.7555) suggests top is in place Fed decision later today will likely cause some volatility

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Market Update – November 3 – Eyeing FED

• A global rally in bonds helped knock Treasury rates lower as the markets repriced central bank outlooks, paring some of the more aggressive views on rate hikes. The moves across Treasuries, EGBs, and Asian bonds was precipitated by the RBA’s ending of YYC and push back against expectations for a 2022 tightening.
• Fears of an aggressive FOMC in 2022 were also pared, as were worries over a BoE rate hike as soon as Thursday. – US Yields lower (10yr rate fell to 1.54%).
• USD (USDIndex 94.00) eased as US futures steadiedafter posting new highs – The USA30 rose 0.39% to 36,053, closing over 36k for the first time ever. The USA500 advanced 0.37% to 4630, with the USA100 0.34% firmer at 15,649. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.013% and -0.12% respectively.
• Premier Li Kequiang warned that the Chinese economy faces new downward pressure, amid a pick up in Covid-19 case numbers, higher energy prices and supply problems. A strong China services PMI failed to lift confidence.
• USOil DO/283553/WN at $81.18, amid some encouraging comments ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which supported hopes that there will be some sort of agreement on higher outputs after all.
• Tesla’s Elon Musk bemoans German red tape, again – Tesla found a floor at 1145.
• Fired Apple employee files complaint with US labor agency – Apple at 150.00
• FX markets – USD steady,  USDJPY dropped back to 113.82 and AUD and NZD stabilised, after selling off yesterday.

FOMC preview: the Fed will resume its meeting today and announce its decision at 14 ET, to be followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 14:30 ET. This meeting does not include the quarterly economic forecasts or dot plots. The announcement of QE tapering is fully anticipated, leaving attention on Powell’s remarks and how he addresses inflation and growth dynamics. We expect he will reiterate the view that inflationary pressures are “transitory,” while acknowledging that prices have been elevated and are likely to remain high but mostly due to the reopenings from the pandemic and supply chain factors. He also should note the slowing in growth as evidenced by the slippage in Q3 GDP to the 2% rate, but again much can be attributed to supply constraints of labor and materials. Powell will not signal any timeframe for rate hikes but will try to downplay risks of a June liftoff while continuing to differentiate tapering from tightening.

Today – Markets are likely to be cautious ahead of the Fed announcement today and the BoE decision tomorrow. Data releases today include the final UK services PMI, as well as Eurozone unemployment data, ECB Lagarde Speech, US ADP and US ISM PMIs.

Interesting Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-1%) dips below 81 and S1 extending lower BB dowards. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram turned negative, RSI 34 and neutral, while Stochastic dip to 4 and sloping down. H1 ATR 0.48, Daily ATR 1.95.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Dollar Takes Respite Before the Fed

The RBA announced that it abandons yield curve control atthe meeting on Tuesday in light of significant inflation improvements. The newshowever failed to bolster hawkish AUD bets, as at the same time the RBA issued quitea disappointing rate hike outlook. According to the head of the RBA Lowe, it’spossible that first rate hike may be delayed to 2024. Long-dated AUD bondyields accelerated decline on this wording with AUDUSD retreating as well. Onthe technical chart for the pair, we can see two leading price channels -short-term and medium-term, while the area from which the pair was sold offtoday was an intersection of the two upper boundaries of the channels:AUDUSD poised to downside correction towards the centerline of the short-term uptrend (0.74-0.7350), which may be supported by thestrengthening of the dollar after the Fed and possibly the NFP on Friday.The dollar started the week on weaker footing, losing itsadvantage above 94 points on the dollar index (DXY). The technical pictureshows a rebound from the lower border of the uptrend on Friday, which mayindicate the completion of the bearish correction after the double top at94.50:Risk demand was supported yesterday by the news that OPECincreased production in October by half as much as planned. US ISMmanufacturing data showed that the sector increased hiring, input prices rose tomore extreme levels while new orders fell in October compared to September. Themain takeaway from the data is that supply shocks continued to push inflationhigher. At least this is true for the US manufacturing sector.The calendar of events in America today is notparticularly interesting and a wait and see attitude will probably prevail intrading before the Fed meeting, while the volatility in the main pairs islikely to subside. There is a small risk that news from Glasgow, where the 26thUN climate change conference is taking place, could cause a negative reactionfrom oil, however, the main attention of market participants is concentrated onthe meeting of central banks this week.

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Ether scales $4,600 to record high, bitcoin trails

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Dollar Down, Investors Await Fed Policy Decision

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USDJPY potential short pullback | 3 Nov 2021

Resistance: 114.666Support: 113.44Pivot: 113.98Type:Bearish ReversalPreference:Prices is on a bearish momentum. We see a potential sell entry at 113.98 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 113.44 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively prices might go higher towards our 1st resistance at 114.666 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.

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