The charts that matter: a tale of two central banks

Government bond yields slipped around the world this week. Here’s how that has affected the charts that matter most to the global economy.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/604073/the-charts-that-matter-a-tale-of-two-central-banks
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Will the COP26 climate summit be a success?

World leaders are currently meeting at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow to commit to measures to stop catastrophic global warming. Will they produce more than just hot air?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/604066/will-the-cop26-climate-summit-be-a-success
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Events to Look Out for Next Week

After a volatile week, with the solid US jobs report having limited impact on the ongoing move lower in yields rates, markets are expected to eyeing inflation and continue pricing in Fed’s rate hikes by the end of 2022. In UK meanwhile markets could continue adjusting tightening expectations after the BoE not just kept rates steady for now, but sent a strong message that market pricing on the speed and extend of tightening in coming years was overdone.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Tuesday – 09 November 2021

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• Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German November ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 20.0 from 22.3.
• Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – October’s PPI headline is expected at 0.5% gains for both the headline and core, following respective gains of 0.5% and 0.2% in October. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric ticking down to 8.5% from an 8.6% pace in September that was the sixth consecutive all-time high. The y/y core measure is see to hold steady from 6.8% in September, carrying on a seven-month streak of all-time highs. Both the headline and core y/y metrics look poised to peak around year-end at the earliest. The massive PPI climb since the start of 2021 exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, and both sets of gains are chasing outsized increases in the trade price measures, alongside ongoing supply constraints that have provided a powerful lift for the inflation indexes.

Wednesday – 10 November 021

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• Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Octobe’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow by 0.6% m/m from 0.1% m/m while the headline should double to 1.4%.
• Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – October gains of 0.4% are seen for the CPI headline and 0.2% for the core, following the same respective gains in September of 0.4% and 0.2%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to jump 5% in October. As-expected October figures would result in a 5.7% y/y increase that would mark a 31-year high, following a 13-year high of 5.4% in September that sits just below a prior cyclical peak of 5.6% in July of 2008. Core prices should show a 4.2% y/y rise from 4.0% in September, versus a 29-year high of 4.5% in June. Widespread production bottlenecks are lifting all the inflation metrics in 2021, such as PPI and the trade price indexes, alongside a boost to the y/y figures from base effects that have largely dissipated.
• Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – The initial claims downtrend gained steam in October, after moderating in September. Initial claims averaged 285k in October, versus much higher prior averages of 341k in September, 352k in August, and 393k in July. The 291k BLS survey week reading undershot recent survey week readings of 351k in September, 349k in August and 424k in July. Initial claims have most recently fallen to a second consecutive cycle-low of 269k.

Thursday – 11 November 2021

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• Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a mix employment report, with a growth of a 50k jobs in October but after with the unemployment  ticking  up to 4.7% from 4.6% in September.
• Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 07:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Preliminary Q3’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% q/q and 6.8% y/y. Manufacturing Production for September is forecasted to slowdown at 0.1% m/m from 0.5% m/m last month.
• ECB Economic Bulletin & EU Economic Forecasts (EUR, GMT 09:00-10:00)

Friday – 12 November 2021

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• Jolts Job Opening (USD, GMT 15:00) – September’s Jolts Job Opening  are anticipated at 10.925M from 10.439M.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /285029/
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NFP: Signs indicate a solid gain!

The US Dollar rallied after the better NFP outcome, and upwardly revised prior months. EURUSD fell to a 15-month low of 1.1515 from 1.1540, while USDJPY topped at 114.03 from under 113.80. Equity futures continue to indicate a higher Wall Street open, while yields on the front end and belly of the curve edged slightly higher. Gilts continued to lead EGBs higher today, with the solid U.S. jobs report having limited impact on the ongoing move lower in rates.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /285047/
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Cryptocurrency roundup: ether hits a new high and a dramatic week for dogecoin-inspired SHIB

Saloni Sardana rounds up the main cryptocurrency stories in a week when ether hit a fresh record high and an obscure cryptocurrency hit the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. 

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/bitcoin-crypto/604072/cryptocurrency-roundup-ether-hits-a-new-high
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The Dollar Will Likely Extend Gains Next Week. Here is Why.

The unexpected decision of the Bank of England to go against the market consensus and leave interested rate unchanged not only led to Pound collapse, but has also undermined the belief of market participants that Central Banks of leading economies are caving in to rising inflation. Nevertheless, the Fed signaled that it starts to gradually unwind asset purchases and made it clear that the pace of tightening can be adjusted to reflect macroeconomic and financial conditions. It means that there is a way for incoming data for October and November to affect Fed policy stance so market response to the NFP release today shouldn’t be underestimated.The dollar saw dovish reaction after the Fed meeting although it didn’t last long as already on Thursday the US currency resumed rally. One of the key drivers of this move was the BoE with its bearish surprise, which unexpectedly made the Fed a leader in credit tightening among the leading economies. Recall that inflation, retail sales data, PMI indices as well as relatively hawkish BoE pre-meeting rhetoric (compared to other Central Banks) cemented beliefs that the BoE will hike interest rates in November, which, however, didn’t materialize. The bearish shift of the UK central bank also caused pullback in expectations of rate hikes from less hawkish central banks, including the Bank of Japan and the ECB. This can be seen from dovish repricing of yields of long-dated UK and German Bunds, while the yield of 10-Year US T-Notes remained relatively stable in the same period:Dovish repricing of sovereign bonds outside of the US helped the US Dollar to quickly pare decline.On the technical side, the dollar index is making the third attempt to test the September 2020 high (94.50 level). A breakout above the level may lead to extension of the really towards 95.00 round resistance level, and then, after a bearish pullback, target the upper bound of the current ascending channel (95.50 mark):The October NFP report could be a potential catalyst for the move. The gain in jobs is expected at 450K, but the risks are skewed towards a higher reading, since the resumption of full-time attendance at schools most likely allowed parents to go to work. Particular focus will be on wages, which growth in annual terms may approach 5%. It is the rise in wages that is now considered by central bank officials as one of the main factors of persistent inflation (to which it is necessary to respond by changing monetary policy). Strong growth in wages is likely to trigger speculation that the pace of QT may be increased, which will strengthen the position of the dollar.It is also worth recalling that the last two releases, the dollar reacted poorly to the negative surprise from Payrolls, so the risks for the dollar may be asymmetrically biased towards growth after today's release.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-dollar-will-likely-extend-gains-next-week-here-is-why"
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Bailey Says Jobs Market Has Missing Evidence for BOE Hike

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bailey-says-jobs-market-has-missing-evidence-for-boe-hike-2669604
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​Weekly Live Market & Trade Analysis - Nasdaq To Target +2300points

Weekly Live Market & Trade Analysis - Nasdaq To Target +2300pointsIn this week's live market and trade analysis session, we opened the session with a review of the EminiS&P's and the main scenarios in play at the moment. We then moved on assessing the technical price patterns and potential set ups for over 20 charts including the DXY, FX majors, global equity Indices, Commodities, Bitcoin. Watch in the video below: #PlantheTradeTradethePlan #ManageYourRISK #ProcessOverOutcome #PlayingtheProbabilities #Forex #ForexTrading #FuturesTrading #StockTrading #tickmill_official #PalmTreeTrader

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/weekly-live-market-and-trade-analysis-nasdaq-to-target-2300points"
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Earnings: PayPal Expected To Continue Growing

PayPal Holding, a leading company involved in technology platforms for digital transactions, was founded in 1998. It offers online payment technology that connects consumers to consumers and also sellers to buyers through websites as well as through mobile device applications.

PayPal is scheduled to announce its 3rd quarter financial report on Monday, Nov. 8 after the market closes.

Statistically, PayPal has reported consistent financials since 2017, with annual earnings per share (EPS) showing a positive increase from as low as $1.90 in the 2017 quarter, up to $3.88 in the first quarter of 2020, while sales revenue also recorded a healthy annual increase of $13.1 billion in 2017 and jumped nearly 2-fold in 2020 at $21.5 billion. In its 2nd quarter 2021 report, PayPal reported positive EPS exceeding the market projection at $1.15 but sales revenue was slightly off at $6.2 billion compared to the projection.

Market Beat

In the 3rd quarter, analysts project a strong financial report from PayPal. PayPal’s flagship product, the Venmo app that offers cryptocurrency services, is expected to show an increase in revenue as well as an increase in users across all platforms in the US. In addition, the increase in consumer spending such as in the tourism sector is also expected to increase PayPal’s transaction volume. Analysts see PayPal’s aggressive investment in upgrading their consumer products especially in cryptocurrencies as well as mobile banking showing a positive improvement in this 3rd quarter. A Nasdaq article also reported an increase in traffic (676.8 million visitors) in visiting the PayPal website between July and September 2021, indicating more interest in the use of PayPal.

In the 3rd quarter report expected to be announced next Monday, Zacks market analysts project sales revenue of $6.20 billion, a 14% increase over the same quarter last year, while EPS (non-GAAP earnings) is projected at $1.08, up 0.9% from the same quarter last year. The annual sales forecast is placed at $25.7 billion with annual EPS at $4.71. PayPal is seen reporting EPS that exceed market projections over the past 4 quarters.

#PayPal Stock Analysis

PayPal shares showed a volatile performance in 2021. After posting good gains in the first half of 2021 and hitting a high of $309.47, PayPal shares declined sharply from July and are now trading at $228.06, just slightly higher from the  January 03, 2021 low of $225. From a technical point of view, it has now shrunk to the 38.2% fibo retracement level ($222.59) and will find further support at 50% fib ($195.75) should the bears continue to dominate the market.

The 50-week SMA and 23.6% fibo retracement ($255- $260) are the closest barriers to the $ 309.47 level, a psychological target for the bulls. The RSI-14 shows the weekly bearish momentum is still strong at 35 and the MACD is also projecting downwards, and the signal line is still above the 0 line, but 2 negative histograms have formed and are increasing. Even so, PayPal shares are still seen as attractive to investors with most analysts polled by CNN Business still placing it in the Buy category (33/36) with only 3/36 placing it in the sell category. The median projected price is projected at $325 for the next 12 months.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Tunku Ishak Al-Irsyad

Market Analyst – Eduxational Office – Malaysia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /285025/
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Will Berkshire Hathaway’s Earnings Raise Buffett’s Ranking Again?

Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Warren Buffet’s holdings in various industries such as retail, energy, insurance, manufacturing, utilities and railroads are expected to release third-quarter 2021 earnings on November 5, after market close. In the second quarter report, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. recorded an operating profit of $6.69 billion, up 21% year-on-year, while net profit grew 6.8% year-on-year to $28 billion, all benefiting from the easing of restrictions that allowed increased shipping and transport activities.

Other business branches such as utilities and energy, with the current energy crisis conditions, are very likely to contribute greatly to the company’s revenue, despite the disruption caused by hurricane Ida earlier this year. But natural gas pipelines, including effects from business acquisitions and real estate brokerage businesses, are likely to contribute higher benefits and revenues.

Not to mention the insurance business which is recovering after the rapid development of vaccinations and the decline in virus transmission, although overshadowed by increases in insurance costs and higher loss adjustment, health insurance benefits and insurance coverage costs. The transportation business is expected to benefit from higher freight volumes and lower costs due to increased productivity. Manufacturing, service and retail businesses are also expected to benefit from higher customer demand.

In a way, all of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s businesses experienced a recovery along with the recovery in demand, so it is not surprising that in the third quarter report, their income increased, despite the looming risks amid the uncertainty of the pandemic, such as selling and service costs, interest expenses, freight rail transportation costs, utility costs and sales energy and other miscellaneous expenses as well as higher interest expense.

The Zacks Consensus forecast for the third quarter of 2021 is pegged at $3.01 per share, representing a 30.8% increase from the figure reported in the same quarter last year. The combination of ESP and Berkshire Hathaway’s earnings forecast is positive and Zacks rates it #2 (Buy).

The total share price growth of Berkshire Hathaway from January 2021 to October 2021 was 24.45%,  reaching highs  over $287, and at the time of writing it is trading at around $285. The stock price hit a historic peak of $295.02 on May 10, 2021, and has never gone higher since, although in July the rally resumed from a low of $270.69 but only posted a lower high of $291.82, then dropped to $271.34 and rallied again for the second time by recording prices that were almost the same as the previous high of $292.21. So the total price movement of this asset in the last 6 months is only between $270.69 and $295.02.

At the start of November, the upward momentum seems to have stalled and the price is seen approaching minor resistance which was breached earlier at $285.60 near the 20-day EMA, although the price structure is still in the ascending channel. The RSI and MACD indicators are still in a positive position for an upward path, but it is clear that this measurement tool reflects prices that are starting to weaken due to profit taking as they approach the third quarter earnings report.

While the resistance holds at $292.21, then the potential for correction to the south will test the 50-day EMA (yellow line) near the ascending trendline first before correcting further to the support level and on the upside will retest the nearest peak. It should be noted, that for the past 6 months, the price of this asset has been floating and is well reflected by the flat Kumo, which represents an established asset position, so there is no possibility of excessive volatile movements. Whatever the results of the earnings report, it is likely to have an impact on the stock price, but not jeopardize the future prospects of the company.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares, according to Tipranks, are at a moderate buy consensus rating, based on 1 Buy and 1 Hold, with a projected average price of $328 implying a potential gain of around 14% from current levels. Consensus EPS is at $3.03, higher than the previous EPS at $2.3.

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/brk.b/earnings-calendar

A strong earnings report will provide assurance for investors to maintain their portfolios in these assets and the stock price, although corrected, may still be quite strong. Meanwhile, reports that may be unfavorable tend to extend asset prices in flat conditions longer. A good report will lead to a stronger long-term stock price and Buffett’s wealth will certainly increase from the stock holdings of banks and companies that recently reported surprising Q3 earnings.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /285021/
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The Bank of England gives markets a shock

Despite warning that it would have to act on inflation, the Bank of England has opted not to raise interest rates. John Stepek looks at the markets’ reaction and asks: what now?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/604071/the-bank-of-england-interest-rate-rise-market-shock
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Dale Robertson: why Europe is a great place to be a stock picker

Merryn talks to Dale Robertson of the Chelverton European Select Fund about the opportunities available to investors in European companies – especially in small and micro-cap stocks.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/european-stockmarkets/604069/dale-robertson-why-europe-is-a-great-place-to
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Carrots and sticks: why energy prices won't fall for a long time

Energy is going to be more expensive for a long time before it gets both cleaner and cheaper. 

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Investors lose faith in Brazil

Brazil's benchmark Bovespa stockmarket index has fallen by 11% since January to become the world’s worst-performing market.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/emerging-markets/604063/investors-lose-faith-in-brazil
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