USD/RUB Forecast: Potential Price Drop Ahead

Good day,The USD/RUB has pulled from the level of 71.50 and reversed. In principle, we feel that the asset might approach the level of 69, therefore potential price drop is likely ahead.Gold is targeting a very strong cloud of resistance formed between the levels 1835 and 1855. There is a probability that gold might pull from this cloud and drop.Oil is heading down, targeting the supporting level of 77.82. Hence, the potential price jump is likely ahead.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usd-rub-forecast-potential-price-drop-ahead"
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Dollar Edges Lower; Fedspeak and Inflation Data in Focus

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-edges-lower-fedspeak-and-inflation-data-in-focus-2671101
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Market Update – November 8 – Heavy News Weekend weighs

• After records for Equities (440 of S&P500 have reported so far &  Q3 Earnings up 41% overall) and a 1-yr high for USDIndex to conclude a huge data week, news flow over the weekend weighs on markets to start the trading week.
• Tesla CEO Musk, via a Twitter poll, asked if he should sell a 10% stake (USD 21bln) in Tesla; 57.9% voted “Yes” with over 3.5mln total votes.
• US House voted to pass the USD 1.2tln bipartisan infrastructure bill late on Friday and sent it to President Biden for signing
• Chinese trade data showed a larger-than-expected trade surplus and strong exports, but USD-denominated imports missed estimates.
• Some China Evergrande unit’s offshore bondholders have not received interest payments due Saturday
• The UK is reportedly prepared to trigger Article 16 of the NI agreement and ditch customs checks before Christmas, EU sticking to the deal.

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• USD (USDIndex 94.22) down from Friday’s 1-yr high 94.62 – post NFP – holds the bid,
• US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.453) lifted a tad overnight to 1.46%.
• Equities at all-time highs on Friday – USA500 +17 (+0.37%) at 4697 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – PFE +10.86%, AirBnB +12.98%, DIS +3.14% – USA500.F back to 4683. Asian equities weaker.
• USOil – bounced Friday from Thursday’s low at $77.15 – rallied again today as ARAMCO increases prices – trading back to $81.00 now from $79.75 close on Friday. 
• Gold recovers further from Fridays breach & break of $1800 as yields remain weak. Touched $1820 today back to 1816 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1550, Cable 1.3478, USDJPY now 113.57

European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down 9 ticks, U.S. futures are also losing ground. Markets are still finding a new equilibrium after central banks did their best to slap down overblown tightening expectations for the coming years last week. ECB’s Lane in an interview with a Spain’s El Pais also argued again that the current spike in prices will be temporary and that the central bank should not overreact, as inflation is still projected to undershoot target in the medium term. The DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively, with a -0.4% correction in the NASDAQ leading US futures lower.

Week Ahead  – All about inflation data this week, is the FED (and most other CB’s) behind the curve,  as many think and will they have to do more, more quickly, or are they correct in their assessment of the “transitory” nature of inflation?  A plethora of central bankers will have the platform this week – kicking off today with % from the Fed.

Today – EZ Sentix Index, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Harker, Montgomery; ECB’s Lane

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.63%) Recovering from Friday low at 0.6460 continues. Strong move over 0.6500 today to test 0.6530. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising& over 0 line,  RSI 67 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0052.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, November 8, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, November 8, 2021 Overnight Headlines Biden Seeks Way Out Of Doldrums After Legislative Victory Biden’s Quest For Oil Relief Turns To Energy Data This Week Democrats Pass $1Tln Infrastructure Bill, Ends Day Standoff China’s Zero-Covid Policy Under Strain As New Cases Spread China Posts October Record Trade Surplus As Exports Surge BoJ Officials Stress Need Keep Easy Policy On Weak Inflation BoC Gov Macklem: Inflation ‘Transitory But Not Short-Lived' UK To Be Ready Scrap Northern Irish Protocol Customs Laws Ireland Minister Warns EU-UK Deal In Jeopardy Over NI Row Russia Keeps Grip On EU’s Gas Market Despite Putin Pledge Musk Urged To Sell 10% Tesla Stake By Holding Twitter Poll Crypto Rally Lifts Ether To Record, Bitcoin Near 3-Week HighThe Week Ahead U.S. CPI in focus as inflation concerns persist U.S. inflation data will be the main focus for markets this week. Equities rallied and bond yields eased last week when the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia played down inflation concerns and maintained that mainly transitory factors are pushing up prices. There is a camp that believes the central banks are underestimating inflation pressures and falling behind the curve. Hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI and PPI will harden those views. Core CPI is expected to rise 4.3% year-on-year, up from 4.0% in September. Other data out of the U.S. includes weekly jobless claims and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. It will be a quiet week in Europe, with German ZEW the featured release. German trade and inflation data and the euro zone Sentix Index and industrial production are also due. UK Q3 GDP will be released in the week ahead, along with IP and trade data. PPI and CPI will be the key data out of China, while October lending data is also due. Japan's calendar includes current account and trade balance for September. Australian employment data will be released this week, with the market expecting a 50,000 rise in jobs after September's 138,000 drop. No top-tier data is due in New Zealand or Canada.CFTC Data Investors trimmed their bullish bets on the USD for a fourth consecutive week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. The aggregate USD long position fell by USD757mn to USD19.8bn. This is still relatively close to its early-October high of USD23.2bn, however, representing a sizable USD long position that reflects solid bullish sentiment in the greenback as markets look to the beginning of the Fed’s hiking cycle. The EUR’s net short saw the biggest week on week change of the currencies covered in this report, with a USD737mn reduction to total USD888mn and declining from as high as USD3.2bn a month ago through a week that included the ECB’s decision last Thursday where it held all of its policy settings unchanged. The weekly change reflects a decrease in shorts of about 10.5k contracts while longs were trimmed by 5.1k contracts. The NZD long saw the second largest increase in the week with USD348mn added to the now USD986mn bullish position (its highest level since March). The GBP’s net long was left practically unchanged at USD1.3bn following a large USD1.1bn buildup the previous week with no clear sense of guidance in the days leading to the Bank of England’s announcement on Thursday. The quick increase in GBP longs of the previous three weeks from a net bearish position of USD1.7bn in early-October came amid strong signaling from BoE officials in recent weeks that they would hike this week. In the week to Tuesday, short and long positions increased by about 5k contracts each. The BoE’s rate hold and guidance that rate increases may wait until February has likely seen a significant share of these recently acquired longs unwound with the GBP reaching a five-week low this morning. Similarly, speculative accounts trimmed the large AUD short by only USD36mn to USD5.6bn (the second biggest bearish position in this report). The near-absence of movement in the Aussie’s position likely understates the worsening of AUD sentiment in recent days after the RBA held on to its guidance that it will not hike until 2024; expectations that it could hike as soon as late-2022 likely saw a reduction in the net AUD short prior to the Tuesday decision. Elsewhere, the small CAD bullish position saw a marginal increase of USD67mn to USD335mn in similar size to the USD85mn increase in the JPY short to USD11.8bn. The yen’s haven/funding peer, the CHF, also saw a USD189bn increase in net bearish bets to USD2.8bnbut the MXN’s bearish position (as a typical target of carry trades) also rose by USD157mn to USD1.2bnG10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )EUR/USD: 1.1500-10 (653M), 1.1515-25 (503M), 1.1550-60 (614M)1.1570-75 (257M), 1.1600 (550M)GBP/USD: 1.3350 (359M), 1.3500 (294M). EUR/GBP: 0.8575 (1.1BLN)AUD/USD: 0.7400 (254M), 0.7460-70 (383M), 0.7500 (378M)USD/JPY:111.90-112.00 (1.5BLN), 113.60-65 (700M)114.10 (422M), 114.25 (1.2BLN). EUR/JPY: 132.50 (286M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.17 Bullish above Finds support after drifting lower in early trading EUR/USD opened 1.1560 after closing Friday at 1.1566 It traded down to 1.1554 when USD broadly edged higher in early Asia Heading into the afternoon it is settling around 1.1560 - little changed EUR/USD resistance is at 1.1590/1.1600 where the 10 & 21-day MAs converge Support comes in at Friday's 1.1513 low and 50% retracement at 1.1492 Range trading likely to continue while those levels holdGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.37 Bullish above. Heavy above key support – EU – UK impasse fears weigh -0.1% towards the of a 1.3473-1.3492 range - busy as Asia fully opened Potential for EU-UK trade impasse on N Ireland increases EU-UK friction could trigger the next sterling fall Charts 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track lower, while 21 day Bollinger bands expand Bearish trending setup in place while 1.3682 21 day moving average caps 1.3412-19 a base Friday, September low and 38.2% of May 2020-June 2021 rise 1.3400 break targets 1.3166, 38.2% of the overall 2020-2021 rise. Friday's London 1.3425-1.3509 range is initial support and resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below USD/JPY bounces in Tokyo on some bargain hunting USD/JPY up from 113.39 EBS early in Asia to 113.63 before steadying Japanese importer, other bargain-hunting tipped, specs buying back shorts Further upside likely limited with US yields soft, rate diffs narrower Japan-US 10-year interest rate diff @141.20 bps, high 10/22 160.30 bps Offers also eyed towards 114.00, likely cap of sorts for now Some option expiries today near current spot - 113.60-65 $696 mln Nikkei off small now after gains earlier, -0.1% @29,578AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.75 Bullish above Soft tone as firm USD and sluggish equities weigh AUD/USD opened 0.7397 after closing Friday at 0.7401 It traded in a 0.7387/0.7402 range and is around 0.7390 into the afternoon USD broadly firmer in Asia while AXJ equity index -0.20% and E-minis -0.25% AUD/USD support is at the 55-day MA at 0.7359, which was Friday's low Resistance at Friday's 0.7412 high and 21-day MA at 0.7448 A break below 0.7355 targets the 61.8 of 0.7170/0.7555 at 0.7317 AUD/USD will likely be influenced by broad USD moves this week

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-november-8-2021"
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Dollar Down as Investors Grapple With Recent Central Bank Policies

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-down-as-investors-grapple-with-recent-central-bank-policies-2671004
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Crypto rally lifts ether to new record, bitcoin to near 3-week high

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/crypto-rally-lifts-ether-to-new-record-bitcoin-to-near-3week-high-2670980
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Dollar firm as U.S. inflation poses next test

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/dollar-firm-as-us-inflation-poses-next-test-2670940
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Key Economic Events and Reports of the Week Ahead

The October NFP report came roughly in line with expectations. Wage growth, as the data showed, came in line with forecasts, consequently there was no space for the markets to speculate about acceleration of Fed’s QT which is currently deemed as the biggest potential bullish USD catalyst.The next week on the economic calendar is going to be pretty boring. US PPI data for October is due Monday. The market can only react to a strong positive surprise. US CPI data for October and jobless claims are due on Wednesday. Given the market's bias to speculate about a possible increase in the rate of tightening of the Fed's policy, the risks for the dollar are shifted towards further growth.Next Thursday, there will be data on UK GDP, China's industrial production and the ECB forecast. The week ends with the release of the JOLTS report on open vacancies in the United States.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/key-economic-events-and-reports-of-the-week-ahead-07-11-2021"
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Chris Hohn: from hedge fund moneymaker to climate crusty

Chris Hohn made more money in financial markets than any of the world’s most successful hedge funds. But his lucre is all for a higher purpose – not least, saving the planet.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/604064/chris-hohn-from-hedge-fund-moneymaker-to-climate-crusty
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Joe Biden’s public spending revolution eats itself

The US president’s flood of free money was going to save America. Now, the country is drowning, says Matthew Lynn.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/us-economy/604054/joe-bidens-public-spending-revolution-eats-itself
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U.S. dollar net longs slide to five-week low -CFTC, Reuters data

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-dollar-net-longs-hit-lowest-since-late-september-cftc-reuters-data-2670283
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OPEC+ is in no Hurry to Boost Output

The OPEC+ alliance decided to boost output by previously agreed 400K bpd despite calls from the United States to ramp up production faster in order to limit upward pressure in energy prices.OPEC+ sources say the United States has ample capacity of its own to ramp up production if it wants to help the world accelerate its economic recovery."Today it was decided to keep the parameters that were adopted earlier. An increase by 400,000 barrels per day is also envisaged for January and February," said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who is in charge of the energy sector, following the OPEC+ meeting."We understand that the market is recovering ... while, as you know, during the fourth quarter and first quarter there is a seasonal decline in demand," Novak said and cited the example of the EU, where demand for petroleum products decreased in October.He called the OPEC+ strategy correct even during the period of declining demand and pointed to the increase in oil reserves in some countries.Oil prices soared to a three-year high this year, surpassing $86/bbl mark, as OPEC+ gradually ramps up supply and demand rebounds with the lifting of restrictions imposed by the coronavirus pandemic. US President Joe Biden on Saturday called on major G20 energy producers with spare capacity to pump more oil in order to boost global economic recovery.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/opec-is-in-no-hurry-to-boost-output"
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The charts that matter: a tale of two central banks

Government bond yields slipped around the world this week. Here’s how that has affected the charts that matter most to the global economy.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/604073/the-charts-that-matter-a-tale-of-two-central-banks
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Will the COP26 climate summit be a success?

World leaders are currently meeting at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow to commit to measures to stop catastrophic global warming. Will they produce more than just hot air?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/604066/will-the-cop26-climate-summit-be-a-success
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