Cryptocurrencies brace for winter, virtual Adidas and a bitcoin city

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Erdogan’s Audit Board to Probe FX Purchases After Lira Rout

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Too Early to Bet on Rebound

On Monday, risk assets rebounded as reports over the weekend suggest that the bout of Covid hysteria on Friday could be an overreaction. Air travel halts have apparently eased off over the weekend, while the WHO and South African researchers alleviated concerns with a statement that there are no evidences yet that the new Covid strain is more dangerous than dominating delta strain. In this regard, the flow of negative news for the market, mainly related to new shocks in air transportation, is likely to slow down this week.Nevertheless, it is too early to say that correction is over - the lack of reliable data on the new strain should keep risk appetite largely subdued this week. According to the WHO, it will take from several days to several weeks to understand whether a new variant of the virus is more aggressive and resistant to vaccines.With regard to contagiousness, there is a reason for concern. South Africa saw a jump in reported cases of Covid in November before the news about the new strain hit the wires, which may be indirect evidence that the virus is more easily transmitted from person to person:New updates on Covid, important for the markets, will appear today - Britain will gather ministers of the Ministry of Health of the G7 countries to discuss options for response, in the evening Biden will deliver a message. It should help to understand the readiness of the governments to take painful preventive decisions.A barometer of expectations for a tightening of the Fed's policy - long-term rates, halved declines on Monday thanks to the relief rally. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose 7 basis points to 1.54%, and the yield on 2-year bonds also gained about the same amount. European markets rose cautiously – gains do not exceed 1%, and it’s difficult to expect more. The optimism of buyers in the oil market is now mainly based on rumors that OPEC will postpone the planned hike in production by 400K barrels in January, but if we see more reports more countries opted to close borders, a larger drop cannot be avoided.Noteworthy reports this week are Germany's CPI in November (slated for release today), ADP and NFP US November report. In addition, the first two days of the week are full of speeches from Fed representatives (Powell, Williams). Markets are unlikely to be able to react in cold blood to the comments which may touch on the topic of the new strain, as this will call into question the Fed's intentions to accelerate the phasing out of stimulus measures (QE). In general, one way or another, trading in the market this week should be reduced to reactions to news associated with Covid and should be characterized by more or less homogeneous risk-off/risk-on.There is a risk of further decline in EURUSD, since Europe’s bullish rate expectations are under pressure due to recent trend to reinstate lockdowns, besides, it is geographically closer to South Africa and, if the new virus is indeed infectious, a new wave may hit it earlier than the United States. Considering the dollar index (DXY), the pullback after strong growth sets the stage for a further rally towards 97.70, where the next key resistance may reside:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/too-early-to-bet-on-rebound"
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Analysis - Swiss franc rises to six year high as central bank stands back

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Coronavirus has had less of an impact on UK property than you might think

The UK property market looked to have been turned upside-down as people abandoned city flats to work from more spacious homes in the country, while offices and shops remained shut. But as it turned out, the change was less dramatic. Max King explains.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/604170/coronavirus-influence-uk-property-market
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Index-linked bonds could prove a costly inflation hedge

Index-linked bonds are designed to keep pace with inflation, but at these prices you are locking in a loss

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Three safe bets on the growing online gambling sector

Professional investor Aaron Fischer, creator of the Fischer Sports Betting and iGaming ETF, picks three of his favourite online gambling stocks.

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Gold Weekly Review

The weakening of the global stock market last week, the sharp decline in global bond yields, the hot ball of inflation and fears of a new virus variant continue to color the fluctuations in metal commodity prices. The new virus variant and increasing cases in Europe could lead to new lockdowns and travel restrictions that will further weaken global economic activity and demand for industrial metals.

Last week’s spot gold price closed lower at $1,788.10 after the previous week’s high of $1,877.15. The metal has fallen about 6% to $1,788.10 in 2021. Inflation, however, has gone the other way with the US consumer price index (CPI) showing prices jumped 6.2% in October from a year earlier, marking the fastest rise in consumer prices in the last 30 years. The price of gold has recently been affected mainly by two fields, i.e. the inflation rate and the prospect of a rate hike, thus making it less bright in 2021.

The price of this asset formed 3 days of directionless trading last week in conjunction with the Thanksgiving holiday, so it is important to pay attention to the actual price direction of any price changes on Monday. If the risk-off mood continues and lacks liquidity and transaction volume, it may lead to the $1,750.00 level.

XAUUSD, D1

The signal that supports the rise in asset prices will be a test of the trend line on the RSI or a rebound from the lower border of the triangle pattern around the support at $1,750.00-$1,758.58. If this scenario fails, the asset price could fall further, while a break of the $1,750.00 price level could extend the correction to the support level of $1,721.59 and the year’s low of $1,676.77. On the upside, asset prices should sit back above the $1,834.00 resistance to confirm value growth. However, the price of $1,800.00 will temporarily become a dynamic resistance, where we can see the 200-day exponential moving average stretch at this price level.

XAUUSD,H4

XAUUSD,H4 – Temporary intraday bias looks neutral below the round number $1,800.00 level but selling pressure cannot be ignored, especially since the price is below the 200-period SMA. If finally there is a break of the ascending trendline (white line) and minor support $1,778.46 it could trigger some selling pressure for a lower price direction at $1,758.58 and $1,750.00. As long as the support at $1,750.00 or the lower trendline (yellow line) of the triangle pattern holds, it is likely that we will see some price fluctuations continue this  week. On the upside, there will be a test of the $1,800.00 round number and $1,815.46 minor resistance before being able to retest the $1,834.00 resistance level and the recent peak.

Overall, asset prices tend to be more in the direction of confirmed consolidation of the transaction data in the form of a slim monthly body candle.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /290399/
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Dollar Rebounds; Traders Reassess Omicron Risks

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Market Update – November 29 – Omicron dominates sentiment

• USD (USDIndex 96.30) recovers from Fridays slump (95.98),  Stocks lost over –2.2% in thin half-day trading, Oil FUTS lost –13%, Gold slumped and Yields tanked (10-yr 1.482%) on a safe haven (JPY & CHF bid)  risk off day. (and a strange carry trade bid for EUR). Weekend news, as Countries block flights and tighten restricts, but first Omicron cases in SA appear mild and hospitalizations have not spiked,  has seen a bounce in sentiment and Asian markets. Pfizer suggested it would take 100 days to adapt new vaccine, if required.
• US Yields 10yr trades up 5.1 bp at 1.52%, after Friday’s slump.
• Equities – tanked in thin and short day on Friday USA500 -106.84 (-2.27%) at 45941 – USA500.F trades higher at 4639.
• USOil – collapsed to $67.08 – now up nearly $4 at $71.00. OPEC+ have delayed this weeks meeting by 2 days & likely to delay planned January production increases. 
• Gold spiked under $1780, has bounced to $1795 but struggles to recoup $1800 
• FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1270, after a +125pip rally on Friday, USDJPY now 113.36, from 115.50 to 113.00 on Friday & Cable back to 1.3325. 

Overnight – JPY Retail Sales recover but miss expectations  (0.9% vs 1.2% & -0.5% last time).

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red & the US 10-year rate is up 5.1 bp at 1.52%. Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian part of the session, but DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 1.2% and 1.3% respectively and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. A part reversal of Friday’s flows then as virus developments remain in focus. Travel restrictions are making a come back and the services sector in particular is facing fresh pain, but as Lagarde suggested over the weekend, the impact of Omicron is unlikely to throw economies back to the situation at the start of the pandemic, meaning the overall situation has not really changed. We continue to see the ECB on course to end PEPP purchases on time in March next year, although developments will add to the arguments of those who want to keep the flexibility on the distribution of asset purchases at least for future emergencies. The BoE meanwhile may be postponing the planned rate hike into next year.

Today – German regional and national CPIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (final), US Pending Home Sales, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Powell.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (1.00%)  The risk-off collapse on Friday 0.7400-0.7200 has recovered to 0.7280. MAs aligned higher,  MACD signal line & histogram rising but still below 0 line, RSI 53.80 & rising H1 ATR 0.0018, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /290393/
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Daily Market Outlook, November 29, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, November 29, 2021 Overnight Headlines Markets Unwind Part Of Friday's Selloff As Variant Fears Ease WHO Urges Caution As South Africa Calls Omicron Variant 'Mild' Biden Told It Will Take Two Weeks For Definitive Omicron Data US Black Friday Store Shopping Drops 28% From Pre-Covid Levels ECB's Lagarde: Euro Zone In Better Shape Facing New Covid Wave ECB's Panetta: ECB Doesn't Need To Intervene On Inflation For Now France Wants To Work With UK On Migration But Won't Be 'Hostage England To Introduce New Omicron Restrictions From Tuesday Japan Retail Sales Boosted By Fuel-Price Spike, Broad Trend Still Soft Australia Q3 Inventories To Drag On GDP, Company Profits Rise RBNZ Chief Economist Doesn't See Omicron Derailing Rate Increases OPEC+ Moves Technical Meetings For Time To Review Market Rout The Week Ahead Uncertainty over Omicron variant to dominate markets Investors were caught off-guard on Friday by news that a potentially more contagious variant of the COVID-19 virus, with the propensity to re-infect, had been spreading quickly in southern African countries. Factors that were previously driving market price action, such as economic data, normalization of monetary policy by major central banks and inflation concerns will now take a back seat to developments in the newly named Omicron variant. It has since been detected in different parts of the world and countries have already begun to tighten border restrictions, although the World Health Organisation says it could take weeks to understand the level of severity of the variant. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to speak this week and the market will pay close attention to their take on the latest phase of the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. jobs lead busy calendar but COVID in focus There is a packed global economic data calendar this week, led by U.S. non-farm payrolls. Normally the U.S. jobs report and other top-tier data would help shape market direction, but concerns over the Omicron variant and government reactions will probably push the numbers into the background. November non-farm payrolls on Friday are expected to show a healthy 550,000 increase in jobs, according to the latest Reuters poll, while unemployment is seen easing to 4.5% from 4.6% in October. The closely watched average hourly earnings component is expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, the same as October. Other key U.S. data includes ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing, consumer confidence, factory orders, ADP employment, Chicago PMI and CaseShiller home prices. Europe's calendar includes euro zone sentiment indices, final November PMIs and consumer confidence, flash HICP inflation data, October retail sales and unemployment. German inflation and unemployment are also due. The UK has final PMIs and Nationwide house prices. China's November PMIs are due this week, with the official manufacturing PMI expected to improve to 49.6 from 49.2 in October, while the Caixin version is expected to ease to 50.5 from 50.6. Japan released October retail sales on Monday; industrial production, employment, business capex and November PMIs are due during the week. Australian data will be led by Q3 GDP, with building approvals and current account also on tap. New Zealand has business sentiment and terms of trade, while Q3 GDP, November PMI and jobs data are due in Canada.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )- USDJPY - 115.70 543m. 113.40/50 711m. 113.20/30 785m. 111.40/50 460m.- EURUSD - 1.1570 410m. 1.1490/1.1500 780m. 1.1460/70 1.06bn (839m C). 1.1440/50 667m. 1.1350 537m. 1.1300 1.70bn (954m P). 1.1250/70 1.51bn (1.02bn P). 1.1190 469m. 1.1150/60 529m.- GBPUSD - 1.3750 662m.- AUDUSD - 0.7100 799m.- USDCAD - 1.2600 1.23bn (840m P).- EURGBP - 0.8600 431m.- USDCHF - 0.9270 1.07bn (1.01bn C).- USDTRY - 11.50 540m.- USDCNH - 6.39 645m. 6.36 460m.Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above Weakens in Asia as Friday's risk selloff reverses EUR/USD opened 1.1310 after rising 1% Friday when Omicron news shook markets After rising to 1.1335 the EUR/USD tracked lower as risk assets moved higher E-minis rose around 1.0% while the AXJ equity index only eased 0.15% Report from S. Africa Omicron symptoms may be less severe underpinned risk US Treasury yields moved higher with 10-year yield rising 6 BPs to 1.54% EUR/USD moved below 10-day MA at 1.1280 and is at session low at 1.1277 Bids are tipped at 1.1225/30 with support at Friday's 1.1205 low Resistance is at the 38.2 of the 1.1692/1.1186 move at 1.1379 Trading likely to remain choppy as Omicron uncertainty overhangs marketGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. GBP remains in stasis in Asia, awaiting London open GBP pairs did little in Asia, cable in tight 1.3325-42 range, quiet GBP/JPY choppy at time with other JPY pairs but also in range GBP/JPY 151.08-91, market thin, actual flows few and far between Month and fiscal year end for hedge funds putting crimp on trading GBP/USD between 55/100-HMAs at 1.3326/46, in 1.3319-43 hourly Ichi cloud GBP/JPY holding mostly under 151.60 hourly Ichi kijun, 150.67 low FridayUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below USD/JPY slumps into Europe open with market again risk off Market risk-off in Asia PM trade, Nikkei off early, rebounds, off again At @28,283, Nikkei closes off 1.6% on day, E-Minis still +0.8% @4631 Month-end and hedge fund fiscal year-end flows may be affecting trade Markets on thin-side anyway following long US Thanksgiving weekend for many USD/JPY from 113.88 EBS Tokyo fix high to 113.09 so far, 113.05 low Friday US yields haven't moved much - gap up then mostly steady, Tsy 10s @1.522% Option expiries still supportive, total $1.7 bln 113.00-50AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.75 Bullish above Moves higher as Asian markets calm after Friday's rout AUD/USD opened 0.7118 after falling 1.0% Friday on fresh COVID fears Early AUD/JPY buying sent AUD/USD up to 0.7149 before 0.7150 sellers capped It fell back to 0.7115 before rising again on rally in some risk assets Reports Omicron strain symptoms less severe resulted in relief rally E-minis rose 1.0% while oil bounced nearly 5% and Lon copper rose 1.45% AUD/USD settled around 0.7140/45 heading into the afternoon

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-november-29-2021"
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S&P500 Approaching an Important Level: What’s Next?

Good day,Brent oil broke the 77.82 supporting level, targeting the 70-level next. Oil should approach the broken downtrend, but it might head North and test the broken trendline first.Euro got back in the downtrend, closing Friday with a long white candle. It seems that asset’s price might undergo a correction and jump at the beginning of next week, targeting the level of 1.1500.American stock index S&P 500 is approaching the level of 4550 which is where this asset could get a very strong support and jump. Should the index manage to break this level and undergo correction, it might drop. So, the price movements around the supporting level of 4550.00 are worth watching.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/sp500-approaching-an-important-level-whats-next"
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BTCUSD, H4 | Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 59497.18Pivot: 57728.9Support: 53640.24Preferred Case:Price is reacting in between the descending channel, signifying overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from pivot level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and overall graphical support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push upwards to the 1st Resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-bearish-continuation-29thnov"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 114.286Pivot: 113.685Support: 113.048Preferred Case:Prices have recently experienced and extreme dip and are currently testing our Pivot at 113.685 which is a graphical overlap and in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. We see potential for upside towards our 1st resistance at 114.286 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracementAlternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices might dip towards our 1st support at 113.048 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-for-bounce-29thnov"
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