Dollar Stable as Traders Digest Omicron News; Rand, Aussie Dollar Hit

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Powell reiterates Hawkishness, First case of Omicron confirmed in US – Stocks tank again under key technical levels, Yields slip again, USD mixed. Erdogan sacks Fin Min – TRY new all-time lows, Apple iPhone 13 demand weakens, GSK ant-viral drug remains active vs. Omicron

• USD (USDIndex 96.08) rotates through 96.00 due to lack of firm data regarding Omicron, markets reamin on edge. Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -1.83% USA500 -1.18% (-54pts) 4513 (opened the day +1.1%) and broke 50-day MA first time since October 14 & USA30 off 461 pts and under 200-day MA first time since July 13 2020.
• US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.40% before recovering to 1.434% now.  
• Asian Markets – Asian markets have traded mixed. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.5% and -0.7% respectively. The ASX lost -0.1%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.2% and 0.3%. Shenzen and Shanghai Comp are slightly lower though as officials seem eager to close a loophole used by tech firms to list abroad.
• USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.50 yesterday – recovered to test $66.35 today – awaiting OPEC+ meeting later.
• Gold Up day yesterday but remains pressured testing $1775 now  
• FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.70, back to 113.31 now, EURUSD now 1.1312 & Cable pressured 1.3192 low yesterday – 1.3275 now. 

European Open – The 10-year Bund future is up 30 ticks, outperforming versus Treasuries, which remain pressured by the hawkish turn at the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield has lifted 3.0 bp overnight, but at 1.43% remains far below the levels seen ahead of the Omicron scare, which the WHO seemed to try and play down somewhat. DAX and FTSE 100 down -1.1% and -0.9% respectively in catch up trade with the slide on Wall Street yesterday, while US futures have found a footing and are posting gains of around 0.6-0.8%.

Today – EZ Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Fed’s Bostic, Quarles, Daly, ECB’s Panetta, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings.

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.77%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 87.85 yesterday, today a rally to 88.60. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 but rising, RSI 56 & rising, OB. H1 ATR 0.188, Daily 0.98.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell  

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Russian Ruble Is on the Rise

Good day,Russian ruble underwent correction and approached the level of 74.00. Currently, it is trying to jump. In principle, the asset’s price might also drop till the supporting level of 73.50 and hit the level of 76.00.Brent oil tested the supporting level of 68.00 next to the broken downtrend. Oil is likely to target the level of 77.82 next.The EUR/USD pair should jump away from the downtrend to face the resistance at the level of 1.1525 and drop.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/russian-ruble-is-on-the-rise-02-12-2021"
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Short bets on Asian FX rise as Omicron uncertainty grips markets: Reuters poll

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USOIL, H4 | Bearish momentum

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 69.834Pivot: 68.48Support: 64.678Preferred Case:Prices are consolidating in a parallel channel. We see potential for a dip from our Pivot at 68.48 in 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 64.678 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 69.834 in line with 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usoil-h4-or-bearish-momentum"
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BTCUSD, H4 | Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 58325Pivot: 57026.93Support: 53623.11Preferred Case:Price is reacting in between a descending channel, signifying an overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop form pivot level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement toward 1st Support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push up to 1st Resistance in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci Projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-bearish-continuation-2nddec"
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GBPAUD, H4 | Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 1.87588Pivot: 1.87013Support: 1.86572Preferred Case:Price is abiding to the ascending trendline support, signifying an overall bullish momentum. We can expect price to push up from pivot level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push down 1st Support in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpaud-h4-or-bullish-continuation"
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USDJPY, H4 | Bullish momentum

Type: Bearish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 113.434Pivot: 112.678Support: 112.066Preferred Case:Prices are on a bullish momentum and abiding to our bullish trendline. We see potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 100% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 113.434 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 112.066 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-bullish-momentum"
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Turkish Lira Heads Lower After Erdogan Fires Finance Minister

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Dollar Down, Yen Near Seven-Week High as Omicron Continues to Spread

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Aussie, rand flounder as Omicron spooks investors

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Midweek Market Podcast – December 1

This week is all about the Omicron variant, and the surprise from Chair Powell ahead of the much anticipated NFP data as the new month dawns.

 

HotForex · Midweek Market Podcast – December 1

 

The Market Week – November into December   

Another volatile week greets the new month as countries react to the new COVID-19 variant Omicron, and FED Chair Powell surprised with a big Hawkish tilt suggesting a faster taper and that inflation could indeed be persistent, “retiring” the idea that inflation is transitory. Stocks tanked, the Dollar and Yields rallied before cooling. OIL had its worst month of the year ahead of a delayed OPEC meeting. All eyes now on NFP Jobs data (Friday).

It’s NFP week so jobs, earnings and unemployment take centre stage. The weekly US unemployment claims posted a 52-year low last week under 200,000, and this week 238,000 is expected. NFP is expected to be around 550,000 and unemployment to remain at 4.5%. The data continues to trend lower and to demonstrate a tight labour market.

The vaccine and booster rollout programmes were given a major profile lift as the new and seemingly more transmissible but perhaps less deadly COVID variant was detected, however it will take a number of weeks before this can be confirmed. Countries closed borders and restrictions were re-imposed as uncertainty (the markets’ biggest enemy) gripped sentiment.

Volatility was evident everywhere. In FX the USDIndex spiked to 96.92, dipped to 95.50 and remains sub-96.00. EURUSD sank to the 1.1180s, before recovering to 1.1325, USDJPY dived from 5-year highs over 115.50 to 112.50 and trades today at 113.50. Cable sank as low as 1.3192 before reclaiming the 1.3300 handle.

US stock markets were also hit by the volatility. The USA500, having consolidated around 4,700 for well over a week, tanked on Friday by over 2.2% and has tested as low as 4555. The key 50-day moving average sits at 4540 as the index trades back over 4,600. December is traditionally a positive month for equities; for now though, volatility and uncertainty rule.

The Gold price, having breached $1800, moved as low as $1770 and remains weak without the expected safe haven bid normally associated with volatile and uncertain markets. The 20-day moving average is north of the key $1800 handle and the 50-day moving average sits at $1790.

USOil prices had a particularly volatile week, ahead of the delayed OPEC+ meetings. The expected increase in production from 400,000 barrels/day, from January, is now under question. Prices continued to decline, plotting a low this week at $64.10 before recovering to $69.00 before weekly inventories and the news from OPEC.

The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury Note remains very much in focus. A weekly low of 1.410% was posted on Tuesday ahead of Powell’s hawkish tilt, PMI data and the NFP numbers on Friday. A clear flattening of the yield curved followed Powell’s comments, and the 10-yr trades at 1.44%.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell  

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Live Market Analysis – ADP jobs report stronger than expected

Eyes on Jobs, But That’s Not All; Join Andria for a live analysis following the stronger ADP  reading ahead of the US Open and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Turkish lira seesaws as central bank intervenes, Erdogan speaks

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