Bitcoin falls 9.2% to $48,782

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-falls-92-to-48782-2700018
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Lagarde: ECB is not Ready to Give Long-term Policy Pledges

The European Central Bank at its December meeting may agree on monetary policy for a relatively short period due to heightened uncertainty, but should not delay making a decision as markets need direction, said ECB President Christine Lagarde.Conservative officials are urging the ECB to avoid long-term commitments in December given high inflation and the escalating coronavirus pandemic, including the identification of a new omicron strain.Some of them are even discussing the possibility of postponing the decision until 2022, hoping that the prospects for growth and inflation will clear up by then.“There are ways to be clear without making long-term commitments, and I would rather not make very long-term commitments because there is too much uncertainty,” Lagarde said in an interview with Reuters Next."But we also have to signal very clearly that we are ready (to act) in both directions."Once the conditions for the rate hike are met, the ECB "will act without delay," Lagarde added.She previously said that increased inflation in the eurozone is still considered temporary and may have already passed its peak and will soon begin to slow down.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/lagarde-ecb-is-not-ready-to-give-long-term-policy-pledges"
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The charts that matter: omicron rattles markets

Markets were rattled by the emergence of a new strain of Covid-19. Here’s how it has affected the charts that matter most to the global economy.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/604199/the-charts-that-matter-omicron-rattles-markets
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How should we go about “levelling up” Britain?

“Levelling up”, long a mantra of Boris Johnson’s government, now has a minister and a department in charge of delivering it. But will they succeed?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/604190/how-should-we-go-about-levelling-up-britain
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Narayan Murthy: the father of India’s IT boom

Narayan Murthy was a pioneer in bringing American business methods to bear in his home country of India. But now the advocate for “compassionate capitalism” is embroiled in controversy.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/604185/narayan-murthy-profile
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Taiwan says is important partner, will keep talking to U.S. on currency

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Bitcoin extends downtrend, falls 12.1% to $47,176

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Bitcoin tumbles 5.5% to $53,436

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-tumbles-55-to-53436-2699466
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Taiwan blames China-U.S. trade war, pandemic for U.S. trade imbalance

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Events to look out for next week

Markets remain weighed by the uncertainty of the impact from the Omicron variant and this is likely to drag into next week as clear data will not be available until mid–December. Chair Powell continued the FED’s shift to the Hawkish side as “transitory” inflation was finally “retried”, a faster taper was suggested and therefore an earlier start to the interest rate hike cycle.  A strong set of US data this week was topped by the unemployment rate diving to 4.2% even though the headline NFP was only 210,000, when expectations had been for 550,000 new jobs. Next week the December central bank merry go-round comes into focus starting with the RBA & BOC, along with Chinese Trade data, EZ & Japanese GDP numbers.

Monday – 06 December 2021

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• German Factory Orders (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German factory orders have been extremely volatile recently;  +3.4% September, -7.7% (revised lower to -8.8%) October and +1.3% rebound in November. As new restrictions loom for the unvaccinated, Germany economy factory orders are likely to have rebounded again and turned negative.

Tuesday – 07 December 2021

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• RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – The Bank’s forecast remains “for inflation to pick-up gradually as the economy strengthens” and an an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth, inflation). However, markets see them on hold through mid-year, with no change possible for the full year depending on the growth and inflation data and the path of Omicron.
• ZEW Economic Sentiment & EZ Employment & Revised GDP  (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Key set of dat for EZ – The ZEW is likely to show a gradual rebaound from the October low at 21.0 and November reading at 25.9, however well below the early summer highs of 84.0 in May.  The Quarterly Employment is likely to remain steady at 0.9% from September’s 0.7% and the decline of -0.3% in June. Finally the revised GDP could rise to 2.2% from 2.0% with the YoY number rising to 13.6% from 3.7% in 2020.

Wednesday – 08 December 2021

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• BOC Rate Statement & Press Conference – (CAD, GMT 15:00 & 15:30) –  Last time the BOC ended quantitative easing and is moving to the reinvestment phase, “during which it will purchase Government of Canada bonds solely to replace maturing bonds.” in a move to address rising inflation. The bank held the overnight rate at 0.25% and maintained its “extraordinary forward guidance” for the path of the overnight rate. No change is expected today.
• JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 15:00) – This Janet Yellen invention continues to receive more prominence as the US job market continues to show signs of significant  tightening. Many workers not returning to jobs, retiring early on the back of buoyant stock markets and record house prices and many not returning even after the Govement cheques stopped and the schools re-opened. A heft 10.93 million reading in September has only declined to and expected 10.45 million today.

Thursday – 09 December 2021

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• Consumer Price Inflation (CNY, GMT 01:30)– China has not be immune to rising prices and uncertainty. With the continuing clouds over many real estate developers (Evergrande & Kaisa the two highest profile) and the tech crack down by the authorities also continuing (Didi announcing it will delist from the NYSE and move to the Hang Seng) Inflation is set to tick higher; CPI up to 1.6% from 1.5% and PPI 14.0% from 13.5%.
• Weekly Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) Following last weeks 52-year low reading at only 222k and the previous week being revised lower again to 194K this weeks number is eagerly awaited. Seasonality factors apart, the evidence of the tight US jobs market continues, a more normal economic cycle average is 250-260K.  

Friday – 10 December 2021

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• German Final CPI (EUR, GMT 07:00) – Expectations are for HICP to remain steady YoY at 6%. with the month on moth number turning up to 0.0% from -0.2% in November.   
• Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and GDP (GBP, GMT 07:00) A plethora of data from the UK should show a continued stuttering recovery. IP is expected to turn up from -0.4% last time but remain in decline, MP should be more robust at 3.1% (Y/Y) from 2.8% last time and (-0.1% m/m). And m/m GDP is expected to have risen to 0.7% from 0.6% in November.
• US Core CPI (USD, GMT 15:30) – This key data point is expected at 0.7% from 0.6% last month and the headline number 1.1% from 0.9% last time. The FED’s prefer measure of inflation remains the PCE Price Index, but with “transitory” now not part of their mantra the depth and extent of higher prices remains of key interest.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /292014/
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Evergrande Says Formulating Restructuring Plan for Offshore Debt

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Cryptocurrency roundup: Facebook U-turns on crypto-ad ban

As Facebook makes a U-turn on accepting cryptocurrency ads, Saloni Sardana casts her eye over the stories that have caught our eye in the last seven days.

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NFP may Cause Short-term Dollar Push

Among all the themes that drove the markets this week, two main ones can be distinguished. The first is uncertainty caused by the new strain, which, by the way, is rapidly unwinding thanks to positive news flow. The second is the Fed's growing concern about inflation and hints that the rate of asset purchases from the market may slow down faster. In the absence of any surprises on the “omicron”, today's NFP data should make the Fed story the main one and will most likely provide short-term support for the dollar.The reshaping of the yield curve this week reflected well the impact of these two themes on the market. Long rates declined in response to the uncertainty surrounding the economic consequences of the spread of Omicron, while short rates, on the contrary, actively resisted due to the strengthening of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric. As a result, the spread between 10 and 2-year Treasury rates (the very “harbinger of a recession”) lost almost 19 bp in 4 days:The narrow-minded interpretation of this spread is that the economy is heading for a recession or the Fed is going to tighten the screws too much.This week, the US Central Bank made it clear that it does not consider inflation to be temporary. Powell said that the word "temporary" is no longer appropriate to describe the current inflation, which came as a big surprise, given that the Fed had said otherwise in the summer. The ECB also acknowledges that inflation is taking root but has stubbornly ruled out a rate hike next year. Earlier, Lagarde said that the ECB will not leave price increases without response, however, a rate hike is unlikely. The Fed is now much more decisive and a solid report on US employment today will increase pressure on the US Central Bank to phase out stimulus faster as the recovery in employment approaches targets.Job growth is expected at 500 thousand. A decrease in unemployment and an increase in the pro-inflationary factor - wages are also expected. A stronger than forecast decline in unemployment (3.8% is considered full employment) or growth in wages (more than 0.4% in monthly terms) could lead to a significant short-term strengthening of the dollar today.Typically, when the US yield curve flattens, the dollar rallies against pro-cyclical currencies, which is no surprise as monetary stimulus starts to slow down and growth prospects deteriorate. Among the G10 currencies this week, the weakest against the dollar were the currencies with a strong pro-cyclical component - AUD, NZD and NOK. In the meantime, testing is planned for AUDUSD and a possible breakdown of the lower border of the bearish channel, which can be a good opportunity to catch a short-term reversal in the pair:It’s procyclical peer NZDUSD is in a similar position:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nfp-may-cause-short-term-dollar-push"
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Why the “capital cycle” is so important for investors to understand

Price is important when investing. But there’s something else to consider, says Merryn Somerset Webb – the capital cycle. Here’s what it is and why it’s so important.

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