High house prices are bad news for us all

UK house prices are rising at their fastest rate in 15 years. John Stepek breaks down why.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/604201/high-house-prices-are-bad-news-for-us-all
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Investment Bank Outlook 07-12-2021

CIBCKey Headlines Leaders of UK, US, Italy, France and Germany spoke about Ukraine, called on Russia to de-escalate Ukraine tensions. Biden Admin said President is mulling options like banking sanctions and restrictions on trading of Russia debt if Putin decides to invade Ukraine. President Biden to hold call with Putin at 10.00 am ET RBA cash rate target unchanged at 0.10%, words were slightly more upbeat, AUD$ trended higher. FX FlowsGood risk appetite continued to roll through Asia, Chinese property and real estate shares opened strong this morning. China Evergrande shares popped on news that the firm plans to set-up risk management committee. Kaisa shares up after bondholders made formal forbearance proposal to avoid default by the developer. Security Times said the PBoC to cut relending rate for SMEs by 25 bps; relending rate cut to take effect from December 7. Still, Shanghai and Shenzhen indices underperformed, managed to recover into black in the late morning.Better risk sentiment saw Yen-crosses firmer. AUD¥ climbed back onto 80-handle, however it felt like some people were trying to pick the top.AUD$ ended the morning right where North America closed, 0.7050s. Some people have been playing close attention to the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, about to cut the downside. RBA cash rate target unchanged, board said will consider bond purchase program at the February meeting. Words were slightly more upbeat on growth and wages. AUD$ rose to 0.7064 but looked like AUDNZD found resistance at 1.0460. Yield spread of the AU-NZ bonds widened to 138 bps.CitiEuropean OpenUSD ticked lower slightly while AUD rallied 0.45% during Asian trading as the RBA decision had hints of hawkishness, although the cash rate and asset purchase programs were maintained. Aussie 3yr bonds extended losses following the decision. News defined the day, as Bloomberg reported a similar story (previously stated by CNN) about potential sanctions on Russia meant to deter any potential Ukraine action. We also saw further news from China about potential cuts to its relending rate, following the Securities Times’ report early in the trading session today that the PBOC may cut the Loan Prime Rate in the near future. Chinese trade balance figures that came in a little narrower than expectations, on the back of a larger import growth as compared to export growth, took a backseat with CNH trading flat on the news.EUR will see several data prints today, in the form of German IP (07:00 GMT), French CA (07:45 GMT) and ZEW expectations (10:00 GMT), with our eyes on the ZEW survey amid Omicron risks. Over in the EM space, we will sight RON GDP (07:00 GMT), CZK Industrial output (08:00 GMT), TWD CPI and trade balance (08:00 GMT), CLP CPI (11:00 GMT) and trade balance (11:30 GMT).

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-07-12-2021"
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What to do if you still have a mortgage when you retire

In the next few decades, many people will be paying back their home loans well into retirement. David Prosser explains their options.

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Regional Reit: office rents provide a steady growth in income and dividends

Open-ended funds struggle when it comes to illiquid assets such as property, but things are looking good for this real-estate investment trust.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/604178/regional-reit-commercial-property-rental-income
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Investing for children: should you get your child a Jisa?

There are several tax-efficient savings options for your children, with a junior individual savings account (Jisa) one of the more popular. So should you buy your child a jisa?

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Dollar Edges Lower; Omicron News, China Cut Help Risky Currencies

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-edges-lower-omicron-news-china-cut-help-risky-currencies-2702229
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Daily Market Outlook, December 7, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, December 7, 2021 Overnight Headlines China Nov Export Growth Slows But Imports Accelerate On Restocking Chinese Developers' Distress Mounts Despite Beijing Assurances Japan's Oct Household Spending Extends Declines On Covid Drag Western Leaders Plan Joint Reprisals If Russia's Putin Invades Ukraine UK Int Trade Sec: Ready To Pick Up Trade Talks When US Is Ready Omicron Adds To Doubts Over ECB’s Commitment To Further Stimulus Aussie Dollar Extends Gain As RBA Gives Itself Room On Rates Oil Extends Gains On Easing Omicron Fears, Natural Gas Collapses Australian Yields Extend Gains With Dollar On RBA’s Omicron Calm Bitcoin Back Over $50,000, As Market Calms After Weekend Turmoil Asia Stocks Tick Up From One-Year Low, China Gains On RRR Cut Samsung Elec To Merge Mobile And Consumer Electronics Divisions Intel To List Shares In Mobileye Unit With $50Bln Valuation RumouredThe Day Ahead Following gains in Europe and the US yesterday, most Asian equity markets are up this morning boosted by hopes that the omicron Covid variant will be less severe than initially expected. China’s trade surplus was smaller than forecast in November as imports surged. German industrial production rose by 2.8% in October. The British Retail Consortium’s sales measure was 1.7% higher than a year ago on a like-for-like basis. The Australian central bank as expected left monetary policy unchanged after its latest review. The German ZEW survey will provide one of the first updates of economic activity in the current month. As a survey of financial market analysts, it may be less reliable than business surveys but sometimes gets attention because of its timeliness. November saw the current conditions indicator fall to its lowest since June but expectations picked up for the first time in seven months. The recent rise in Covid cases within the region points to a likelihood that both components will be down in December although it is probably too early for the new variant to have had a significant impact. Today’s Eurozone Q3 GDP data updates and headline growth is not expected to be revised. The detailed breakdown of which areas of spending are driving growth will be of interest but overall markets are likely to see it as old news. In the US, already released data for international trade in goods showed a substantial shrinkage in the trade deficit in October, reflecting a surge in goods exports and only minimal growth in imports. Q3 labour productivity and unit labour cost data are second readings; the first estimate showed a sharp fall in productivity during the quarter reflecting the slowdown in output growth. Bank of England and US Federal Reserve policymakers are now their purdah period ahead of next week’s monetary policy updates. Yesterday’s comments from BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent pointed to a lot of uncertainties and in particular concerns about labour market trends but offered little guidance on whether UK interest rates are likely to be raised next week. Indeed, apart from the previously hawkish Saunders who said that the Omicron variant argued for a delay in raising rates, Monetary Policy Committee members have seemed reluctant to offer guidance on the BoE’s likely policy actions. In contrast, Fed policymakers appear to have signalled that they will accelerate the ‘tapering’ of their asset purchase programme next week.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )USDJPY - 114.90/115.00 1.13bn (945m C). 113.90/114.00 1.05bn (930m C). 112.70/80 435m. 112.50 479m.EURUSD - 1.1550 519m. 1.1350/70 1.57bn (787m C). 1.1320/30 519m. 1.1050 548m.GBPUSD - 1.3250 452m.AUDUSD - 0.7300/0 790m. 0.7200 758m. 0.7100 1.20bn (1.00bn P).USDCAD - 1.2850 460m. 1.2760/70 770m. 1.2740/50 1.24bn (700m P). 1.2440/50 460m.EURJPY - 126.20 405m.USDZAR - 15.24 530m.USDMXN - 21.27 418m. 21.00 566m.USDCNH - 6.46 406m.Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above EUR/USD, EUR/JPY so – so buoyant in Asia, action limited EUR/USD tad buoyant in Asia, 1.1276-93 EBS, awaiting catalysts ECB Holzmann talk yesterday supportive, inflation maybe not transitory EUR/USD holding in vicinity of 1.1291 ascending 200-HMA Descending 55-HMA just above at 1.1294 Some option expiries in area - 1.1275 E354 mln, 1.1325-30 E519 mln Above, total E1.6 bln or so between 1.1350-70, E1.1 bln alone at 1.1360 EUR/JPY bid with USD/JPY, risk mood better, 127.95 early to 128.18 EBS Cross between 100-HMA at 127.96 and 200-HMA at 128.25 EUR/CHF buoyant, quiet, 1.0435-41 EBS, EUR/GBP 0.8503-10, quiet too Net EUR/USD short rising to $3.3bln equivalent thanks to long liquidation Bets on drop still negligible, $20+ often reached before influencing trends 20-day Bollinger bands 1.1175-1.1320 should determine further slow declineGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. +0.15% at the top of a 1.3257-1.3274 range with occasional decent flow UK consumers embrace Black Friday discounts, sales +5% on 2020... Supply chain concerns suggest consumers may be shopping early for Christmas Charts; 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track lower, 21 day Bollinger bands contract Bearish setup targets a test of 1.3166, 38.2% of the 2020-2021 rise Sterling shows resilience above 1.3166, but signals remain negative Close above 1.3367 falling 21 day moving average needed to end downtrend 1.3232 NY low supports, 1.3292 10 DMA which has capped, resistance GBP/USD bullish pointers emerging but down trend intact Price beginning to turn but the down trend still intact while below 1.3371 The Nov 30 high is the top of a daily consolidation pattern Closer to market the 10DMA could be a squeeze point today at 1.3294 The minimum correction off the 1.3834-1.3195 drop is at 1.3346 14-day momentum diverging bearishly, still reflecting the drop from 1.3514 Daily RSI is lifting off the 30.00 oversold level: confirming the reboundUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below USD/JPY, JPY crosses extend higher with risk more on The whole JPY complex is extending higher, USD/JPY up more to 113.71 Low earlier today 113.40, spot clears descending 200-HMA now at 113.53 Moves towards 114 likely but some option expiries between 113.75-95 Also large-ish $863 mln expiries at 114.00 strike US yields supportive, Treasury 10s to 1.453%, low earlier 1.427% Nikkei now +2.2% @28,543, E-Minis +0.4% @4609, AXJ mostly up too EUR/JPY 127.95 early to 128.36, GBP/JPY 150.33 to 151.08 AUD/JPY 79.81 to 80.47 on more upbeat RBA, stance still easy though Improved risk appetite in FX markets Tuesday, but options reflect caution Implied volatility measures actual volatility risk - it's lower However, losses are limited and implieds remain well above recent lows Directional implied volatility risk premiums also reflect caution Risk reversals retain strong bid for USD/JPY, AUD and GBP downside strikesAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.75 Bullish above AUD/USD climbs further to 0.7079 as S&P futures +0.4% May reach 0.7097 top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel Close above that will break bearish bias, spur short-covering Ignores RBA hold with patient policy stance Positive sentiment in Asia follows China RRR cut, trade data Chinese exports rise 22.05% y/y, above forecast Latest poll showed economists favour first RBA hike in Q1 2023 Markets are more hawkish - RBAWATCH fully prices a hike in August 2022 RBA meeting likely low key as Omicron sustains cautious outlook Charts; 5, 10 & 21 daily and weekly moving averages trend lower Daily momentum studies, 21 day Bollinger bands fall - strong bearish setup 0.6990 Nov 2020 base major support, break targets 0.6758 50% 2020/21 rise 0.7106 10 DMA has capped the trend - close above needed to undermine bias

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-7-2021"
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Market Update – December 7 – Equities and currencies gain as Omicron worries wane

• USD (USDIndex 96.15) steady, as Treasuries rose sharply on the improvement in risk appetite, on expectations for an acceleration in QE tapering to be announced at next week’s FOMC meeting, and as the market set up for this week’s $112 bln in coupon supply. Stock market sentiment strengthened further overnight and GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while a 0.7% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher.
• The RBA left policy settings unchanged, but sounded relatively optimistic on the virus front, which for some signalled that an early exit from QE is on the cards.
• Growing confidence that Omicron won’t derail the global recovery, but that also means that central banks remain on course to reign in stimulus as new virus restrictions will likely add to inflation pressures.
• Today’s released UK BRC retail sales were stronger than expected, but may be distorted by warnings that consumers should bring forward Christmas shopping in the light of supply chain disruptions, which could worsen over the winter.
• US Yields 10-year rate lifted 1.7 bp to 1.45% overnight, JGB rates are up 1.7 bp at 0.051% as stock market sentiment continued to improve. Australia’s 10-year jumped 6.5 bp to 1.64%
• USOil – higher  above 200-DMA at $70.60 – concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant on global fuel demand eased,  while Iran nuclear talks stalled, delaying the return of Iranian crude.
• FX markets –  EURUSD remains below the 1.13 mark, while Cable is still below 1.33 as the FOMC decision comes into view, USDJPY lifted to 113.72, but currently 113.58.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -50 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries and leaving Bund yields to jump sharply in catch up trade, after Treasury yields continued to move higher through the Asian session.

Today – The calendar has Eurozone detailed GDP numbers for Q3, but the focus will be on German ZEW investor confidence. In US session, we have US trade and productivity and Canadian Ivey PMI.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.41%) Currently MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI sloping to 26, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.00226, Daily 0.01442.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /292766/
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Dollar Up as Omicron Fears Die Down

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-up-as-omicron-fears-die-down-2702037
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Biden, Putin set for crucial call over Ukraine

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/biden-putin-set-for-crucial-call-over-ukraine-2702030
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Haven currencies pressured by hopes Omicron is mild

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/haven-currencies-pressured-by-hopes-omicron-is-mild-2702026
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XAUUSD, H4 | Potential Trend Reversal!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1797.78Pivot: 1778.616Support: 1762.318Preferred Case:Prices are consolidating in a inverse head and shoulders pattern. We see potential from our Pivot at 1778.616 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1797.78 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 1762.318 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xauusd-h4-or-potential-trend-reversal"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential for Pullback

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 113.95Pivot: 113.587Support: 112.724Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum and have approached a Pivot. We see potential for a sell entry at 113.587 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 112.724 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 113.95 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-for-pullback-7thdec"
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EURUSD, H4 I Potential Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.13385 Pivot: 1.12973Support: 1.12335Preferred Case:With price approaching the ichimoku cloud resistance and a graphical horizontal resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 1.12973 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement to 1st support at 1.12335 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1.13385 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in line with the horizontal swing high resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-i-potential-bearish-drop"
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