We’re at another turning point in the 100-year cycle of money – here’s what to do

Money has always moved in 100-year cycles. And we’re at another turning point now, says Dominic Frisby – money has gone from gold to paper, and now to technology. Here’s what that means for you.

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Market Spotlight: Bearish GBPCAD Opportunities Into BOC

Upside Risks For CADThe BOC meeting today will be a key catalyst for CAD price action across the remainder of the week and into the next. With the BOC among the more hawkish of the G10 central banks, expectations are geared towards tightening expectations. In light of the uncertainty around Omicron, the market is not looking for any policy adjustment today so the focus will instead be on forward guidance. Given the strong economic momentum in Canada, the BOC is likely to stick to an upbeat outlook, keeping rate hike expectations well primed as we head into 2022, leading CAD higher on the back of the meeting.Where to Trade The BOC?GBPCADPrice recently broke down out of the bear flag structure, signalling a continuation of the bear trend. Currently, price is testing below the 1.6734 level and with the retail market more than 90% long, while below here, the next target to play for is the 1.6551 level and a test of the bear channel lows. Any CAD strength on the back of today’s BOC meeting should be enough to pressure the pair towards target, especially given the very weak sentiment towards GBP currently amidst yet more political scandals for the government and rising Omicron infection numbers.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-bearish-gbpcad-opportunities-into-boc"
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Bank of Canada December Meeting Preview

BOC Up NextThe key event focus today will be the Bank of Canada rate decision. Given that the BOC has been among the more hawkish of the G10 central banks, there is plenty of attention on today’s meeting, with the potential for decent CAD-linked volatility. In October, the BOC announced an immediate end to QE along with brining forward its rate hike guidance from an initial hike in 2024 to an initial hike in 2022. This meeting was a significant bullish catalyst for CAD and, along with the rally in oil prices at the time (driven by the global energy market crisis), CAD price forecasts began to see heavy upward revisions as market players upgraded their BOC rate hike expectations for the year ahead.Solid Economic RecoveryFast forward to today and what do we have? Well, the economy has continued to boom back into life in Canada. Labour market strengthening, surging inflation and a broad pick up in activity, along with rising vaccination rates and increased consumer optimism, have all helped paint a rosier picture than we are seeing elsewhere, e.g., in Europe.Omicron RisksThe fall back in oil prices over November has seen CAD price action reversing across the month with USDCAD rallying from lows of around 1.23 at the end of October to highs around 1.28 at the end of November. Some weakening in the exchange rate is no bad thing although, the sharp drop in oil prices represents a blow to Canada’s export income. The emergence of the Omicron variant over the last fortnight also represents fresh risks. We’ve heard global leaders and health authorities warning over the threat of a greater outbreak than prior strains which is obviously a cause for concern for central banks in terms of progressing with tightening.Rates On Hold But Hawkish GuidanceHowever, with oil prices back on the rebound now and with Omicron risks looking a little more diluted now, conditions appear mostly favourable for CAD. In light of the residual risks around Omicron however it appears more reasonable to expect that the BOC will remain on hold today ( no hike), though the forward guidance is likely to be hawkish. Expect the BOC to talk up the strength of the economy while acknowledging, yet downplaying, the risks around Omicron. Consequently, the meeting is likely to be net-positive for CAD today.Technical ViewsUSDCADThe market failed yet again at the latest test of the 1.2814 resistance band, which has been a key upside obstacle for the pair over this year. With MACD and RSI turning sharply lower, there is room for the decline to continue lower towards a test of the rising channel low, with structural support between 1.2368-1.2469. While this region holds, the longer term view is in favour of a break higher towards

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bank-of-canada-december-meeting-preview"
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Dolar Kanada Menguat Hampir di Semua Papan

The Canadian Dollar has been one of the major overperforming currencies in 2021, but has been fading lately, with declines recorded against the Dollar, Pound, Yen and Euro over the past month. The National Bank of Canada said the Canadian Dollar’s recent decline in value only made it more undervalued compared to fundamentals, as they forecast a rise in 2022.

Canada’s economic growth is getting better, employment is strong and public finances are improving rapidly. Quantitative easing is over and inflation is high enough to warrant some rate hikes in 2022. Canadian exports rose 6.4% to hit a record CAD 56.2 billion in October. Exports grew in 8 out of 11 product sections. The combined gains in exports of motor vehicles and spare parts and energy products accounted for nearly 80% of total growth. Imports rose 5.3% to a record CAD 54.1 billion. Profits were observed in 7 of the 11 product sections. Motor vehicles and their parts accounted for nearly 2/3 of the monthly increase. The trade surplus widened from CAD 1.4 billion to CAD 2.1 billion, well above expectations of CAD 1.6B. It was also the biggest surplus so far in 2021.

The CAD traded higher against the US Dollar yesterday in line with the rebound in oil prices. The USDCAD pair posted a daily decline of -0.94% to close at 1.2636. Against the Euro, the CAD also strengthened by 1.04%. Against the Pound, the CAD registered a gain of +1.04%, while against the Yen, the CAD garnered a gain of 1.03%.

CADCHF,D1

CADCHF, D1 – This currency pair has been stable for the last 7 years. It has been trading in a range between its Sept’2017 high (0.7958) and March 2021 low (0.6603). In the midst of uncertainty during the pandemic, ranging from the Alpha, Delta to Omicron virus variants, CHF has benefited as a safe haven. However, Canada’s massive economic recovery throughout 2021 has made the pair strengthen back to the 0.7300 price range this December. Intraday bias is neutral while gains are seen confined to midlines on BB. A move to the upside would target the 0.7408 minor resistance while the downside would test the minor support around 0.7250 before running towards the 0.7138 low. Broadly speaking the pair will tend to consolidate in a limited space.

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Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – Educational Center – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /293228/
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USA100 – Stock Market Unwind from Omicron but also Pressure from the Fed

USA100, Daily

The US stock market bounced on Tuesday as concerns about the impact of the omicron strain on global economic growth eased, sending the Nasdaq above +3%, the S&P 500 +2.1% and the Dow Jones +1.4%, the highest gain since March for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

The rise of more than 3% on the Nasdaq was led by #Intel, up 3.1% after the company announced it will list is subsidiary Mobileeye on the US stock exchange in 2022. Mobileeye is an Israeli driverless car developer acquired by Intel in 2017 for $15.3 billion.

#Tesla closed +4% after UBS raised its share price target of $1,000 from $725, while FactSet’s average price was $851.09. Based on a survey of 41 analysts, 17 recommend a buy, 12 recommend a hold and 12 people recommend a sell.

#Apple rose more than 3.5% to a new all-time high with a market cap of $2.84 trillion after Morgan Stanley raised its share price target from $164 to $200. The announcement of a 30% increase in iPhone production in the first half of 2022 also had a positive effect on the share prices of #Qualcomm (+4.71) and #Micron (+4.1) as suppliers.

However, even if the market is starting to relax from the Omicron concerns but still pressured (especially the technology group) by the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will accelerate the QE cut and raise interest rates faster than expected, the focus of the market right now is on the US November inflation data on Friday, which could be a catalyst for the Fed to tighten policy faster. Monthly inflation is expected to fall to 0.7% from 0.9% in October, but the annual rate could rise to 6.8% from 6.2% the previous month (the highest in 30 years).

Technically speaking, the USA100 has regained its standing above the MA20 after falling and trading below the MA20 line since the discovery of the omicron strain on November 26. It has since seen another test of the all-time high at 16,767, while key support stands at the psychological 16,000.

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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /293205/
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Investment Bank Outlook 08-12-2021

CIBCKey Headlines Dip-cott - PM Morrison said Australia won’t send government officials to Beijing Winter Olympics however, Australian athletes will still attend Olympics. Britain is considering approving limited government attendance at the Beijing Olympics, short of full-on diplomatic boycott. Deputy PM Raab said he will not be attending. New Zealand said it is not sending any officials to Olympics but that is due to Covid and not political. FT posted a story that Chinese regulators are preparing a blacklist to tighten restrictions on tech companies. Alibaba shares fell more than 4.4% at time of writing. FX FlowsGood selling of $Yen after the open out of Japan took the US$ from 113.54 to 113.37. It then bounced back with strong demand for the Tokyo fix. $Yen has been steady since, buying of Yen crosses seen in the mid-morning spurred by onshore $CNY trading lower. There are good option strikes on sides due tomorrow, biggest strike is 114.10 USD call for $1.8bn.€Yen bought lifted EUR$ towards 1.1290s. Usual rumour of offers at 1.1310-20 and bids at 1.1260. Take note that there are decent option strikes maturing Monday December 13. €1.5bn at 1.1320, €950mio at 1.1250.AUD$ is also firmer as the AUD¥ returned onto 81-handle and AUDNZD onto 1.05-handle. AUD$ resistance seen at 0.7170, very little talk about the downside, think corporate bids kick in under 0.7100.Bank of Canada meets today, no change expected. The Bank can offer up an even more positive outlook, and signal rate hikes are coming, but the language surrounding that forecast should sound much less certain until we have more information about that mutated elephant in the room, which is omicron. $CAD drifted lower, not much seen downside.CitiEuropean OpenA quiet day gained speed towards the European open, with the main theme being dollar weakness. The rest of the G10 currencies mainly strengthened against the greenback, with CAD being the exception, sliding 0.03% ahead of the BoC rate decision today. Overnight, we had the US-Russia summit conclude, with noteworthy headlines about Biden voicing concerns around Ukraine. In Asia, RBI kept both its repo and reverse repo rates unchanged. One third of Bloomberg survey respondents had predicted a hike in the latter, which caused INR to be the biggest loser (-0.09%) in the Asian FX complex on the announcement. THB leads the Asian currencies, trading 0.58% higher, with KRW and MYR also ticking slightly higher.Today, USD will see a JOLTS Job Openings data (15:00 GMT). We also note a Bank of Canada Rate Decision (15:00 GMT), where Citi Economics expect no change. PLN will also see a base rate announcement, where Citi Economics expect a 50bps hike to 1.75%. Following the theme of central bank decisions, BRL will first see a retail sales print (12:00 GMT), followed by the Selic rate decision (21:30 GMT). Citi Economics expect a hike of 150bps to 9.25%. We see CPI prints for HUF (08:00 GMT) and RUB (16:00 GMT).

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-08-12-2021"
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Rebound in Bond Yields, Oil Eases Adding Bearish Pressure to USD

The rebound in oil met some resistance on Tuesday late in the session as markets apparently realized that it’s a bit premature to completely discount potential negative impact from the new Covid variant. By the yesterday close, prices erased about 40% of intraday gain, so bullish bet on continuing momentum isn’t so appealing today. Brent added 3.4% on Tuesday and the price tried to climb above psychologically important level of $75/bbl, however failed to hold its ground on Wednesday. Demand for Brent futures increased to an even less extent, which is evident from the narrowing time spreads.The latest data on Chinese imports shows that China's oil demand increased 15% on a monthly basis to 10.21 million barrels per day. However, the annual dynamics of demand continues to remain negative and amounts to -8%. Exports of oil refined products increased by 6% on a monthly basis, but in annual terms the change is negative and amounts to -15%. Domestic shortages and lower export quotas put pressure on China's oil product exports.The API data released on Tuesday showed that crude oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the reporting week. However, inventories at Cushing are up 2.4 million barrels. Also, stocks of gasoline rose by 3.7 million barrels and distillates by 1.2 million barrels. The growth in refinery products inventories neutralized the positive effect of lower crude oil stocks on prices, so the market took the report negatively rather than positively.It is also worth noting the EIA's short-term oil production forecast published yesterday. The agency's forecasts for US oil production in 2021 and 2022 remained unchanged from previous ones, which is encouraging, as competition from shale oil with OPEC was one of the main factors holding back oil growth in the pre-covid time.Technically, oil is struggling to gain foothold above important psychological level of the 200-SMA. With the last fall, the curve flattened, and it is critically important for prices to remain above the level for at least a few days, so that a new leg of the rally can be expected:Along with the weakening of the upward movement in oil, fears also intensified on Wednesday that the Fed's intention to accelerate tapering of bond purchases in order to tame inflation will choke growth. The 10-year Treasury bond yield apparently halted advance, along with this, the US currency also came under slight pressure. The dollar index is trading slightly in the red with near-term risk skewed slightly to the downside.US November inflation report is due on Friday and in case of upside surprise in the rise of consumer prices, markets may double down on the bet that the Fed will be more aggressive in its tapering plans. In addition, the data on inflation in China will be released tomorrow and MoM decline in inflation pressures, especially in PPI may instill hope that inflation is retreating and central banks will not rush to take restrictive measures, which may ultimately offer some support to the US currency.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/rebound-in-bond-yields-oil-eases-adding-bearish-pressure-to-usd"
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Dollar Edges Lower; Australian Dollar Benefits From Risk Appetite

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Daily Market Outlook, December 8, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, December 8, 2021 Overnight Headlines BoJ Has No Need To Modify Ultra-Easy Policy, Says Dep Gov Amamiya Japan Manufacturers' Sentiment Rises To 4-Month High In Dec - Tankan China To Tighten Rules For Tech Companies Seeking Foreign Funding House Votes To Approve Bill Setting Up Process For Lifting Debt Limit Shortest-Term Treasuries Rally On Deal To Raise The Debt Limit Yuan Hits Highest Since 2018 As Easing Virus Worry Fuels Risk-On Coffee Hits 10-Year High As Shipping Bottlenecks Squeeze Supply Asian Shares Catch Global Equities Rally Wednesday, But Oil Slips Developer Kaisa Suspends Share Trading As Potential Default Looms Study Suggests Pfizer Vaccine May Only Partially Protect Against Omicron The Day Ahead US equity markets closed higher for a second day. The positive risk tone continued into the Asian trading session, with the Nikkei for example up by close to 1.5%. There appeared to be cautious optimism in markets about the omicron variant, especially after the US chief medical advisor Anthony Fauci said the new variant “almost certainly is not more severe than delta”. With limited economic data and events in today’s calendar, the focus will remain on the omicron variant, in particular how serious it will be in terms of its impact on health outcomes and on the global economic outlook. The indications are that it is highly transmissible, although there are anecdotal reports of mild symptoms. Scientists caution, however, that it is too early to be confident about its health impact. One interesting aspect of the new variant is its potential impact on central bank policy. For the US central bank, the indications are that it is currently attaching more weight to inflation risks than omicron, especially with headline CPI this Friday set to show a jump up close to 7%. The Fed is expected to announce a quicker pace of tapering at its policy meeting next week, with the process potentially to be completed by March rather than June. That would provide room for the Fed to start increasing interest rates earlier, if necessary. In contrast, the likelihood of a Bank of England rate hike as early as next week has fallen as policymakers await further information on omicron. The European Central Bank, along with the Fed and the BoE, will also provide a policy update next week. With Eurozone inflation gapping up to 4.9%, there looks likely to be lively debate among Governing Council members on whether the current rate of bond-buying is appropriate and on what should replace the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) next March. President Lagarde and VP Guindos speak today, but their comments may focus more on financial risks than on monetary policy. The Bank of Canada is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25% today. Having ended asset purchases, the BoC has indicated that interest rates are likely to rise next year, possibly in the first half. The more positive risk environment led the US 10-year Treasury yield to rise near to 1.50% yesterday, although it is slightly lower overnight. The US dollar has broadly softened, despite quicker-tapering expectations. Oil prices are up, with the Brent crude price moving above $75 a barrel.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )EUR/USD: 1.1290-1.1305 (569M), 1.1350 (423M), 1.1400 (250M)USD/CHF: 0.9175 (250M), 0.9330 (250M)GBP/USD: 1.3300-10 (437M). AUD/USD: 0.7140-50 (287M)USD/CAD: 1.2670 (463M)USD/JPY: 112.25-30 (672M), 113.00-05 (723M), 113.20 (363M)113.80 (524M), 114.00 (534M), 114.25 (552M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above EUR/USD bid, EUR/JPY too after early slump EUR/USD better bid in Asia in light trade, 1.1269 to 1.1293 EBS Overall bias remains down however, seen heavy between 1.1300-1.1400 Resistance from 1.1293 descending 100-HMA, ascending 200-HMA 1.1297 above Few large nearby option expiries today, 1.1305 E345 mln, 1.1350 E423 mln EUR/JPY from 127.93 post-Tokyo fix to 128.18, back above 128.10 200-HMA Heavy going above 200-HMA yesterday, off after push up to 128.46 EBS Risk on in Tokyo, most of Asia and supportive, Nikkei +1.1% @28,774GBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. GBP/USD bid with the softer USD – risk remains buoyant +0.15%, as safe haven USD eases as regional stocks climb, E-mini S&P +0.35% Trades at the top of a 1.3238-1.3254 range with decent morning interest U.S. became UK's biggest finance customer in run up to Brexit UK Gov't financial market strategy post Brexit key for the industry in 2022 Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages fall, 21 day Bollinger bands contract Close above 1.3351 falling 21 day moving average needed to end downtrend Bearish setup targets a test of 1.3166, 38.2% of the 2020-2021 rise Asian 1.3238 low supports, 1.3282 10 DMA which has capped, is resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below USD/JPY tad soggy, JPY crosses tad better bid, in ranges USD/JPY tad soggy but essentially range-bound pre-US CPI Friday Range 113.36-60, on hold between 113.00-114.00 for now, action light Heaviness felt on push to 113.78 yesterday, bids towards 113.00 Option expiries bracket today - 113.00-05 $723 mln, 113.80 $524 mln US yields on higher plane after slump Friday, Treasury 10s @1.461% Tokyo risk-on, Nikkei +1.1% @28,774, E-Minis +0.4% @4703, AXJ mostly up EUR/JPY 127.93-128.18 EBS, GBP/JPY 150.14-52, AUD/JPY 80.66 to 81.09AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above AUD/USD breaks free of near term downtrend; shorts may capitulate AUD/USD leapt out of Bollinger downtrend channel Tues Also reclaims Aug low, gaining solid floor at 0.7107 Shorts likely motivated to trim further, spur AUD higher Primary target for longs to take profit is 21 DMA 0.7195 But inability to breach that resistance may cue pullback Broad improvement in risk appetite fuels Asia stocks higher

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-8-2021"
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USDCAD, H4 I Potential for a Bullish Pullback

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.27314Pivot: 1.26335Support: 1.25936Preferred Case:With price approaching the support of the stochastics indicator and horizontal support on the graphical levels, we are biased that price will do a pullback from pivot at 1.26335 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to 1st resistance at 1.27314 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance where it's closer to the recent trendline breakout before continuing with its overall bearish momentum.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.25936 in line with the horizontal swing low support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-h4-i-potential-for-a-bullish-pullback"
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BTCUSD, H4 | Short-term Bullish

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 53677.02Pivot: 49465.84Support: 47378.88Preferred Case:Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. However, we can expect price to bounce from pivot level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push further down from pivot level to 1st Support in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-short-term-bullish"
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AUDNZD, H4 | Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.05294Pivot: 1.05036Support: 1.04236Preferred Case:Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance on the daily, signifying an overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection to the 1st Support in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push up to 1st Resistance in line with 100% Fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audnzd-h4-or-bearish-continuation-8thdec"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential for Pullback

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 114.007Pivot: 113.787Support:113.048Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum. We see potential for a dip from our Pivot at 113.787 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 113.048 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 114.007 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-for-pullback-8thdec"
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Rouble weakens amid Russia sanctions threat ahead of Biden-Putin talks

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