US30, H4 I Potential Bullish bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 35828Pivot: 35581Support: 35282Preferred Case:With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we are biased that price will rise from pivot at 35581 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support to 1st resistance at 36124 in line with horizontal swing high resistance. Do take note of the intermediate resistance at 35828 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 35282 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us30-h4-i-potential-bullish-bounce-14thdec"
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BTCUSD, H4 | Short-term Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 51590.06Pivot: 46937Support: 45291.93Preferred Case:Price is currently at the horizontal support level, we can expect price to bounce from there in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the MACD indicator where the MACD line crossed above the signal line.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push further down to the 1st Support in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-short-term-bullish-bounce-14thdec"
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XAUUSD : The week ahead (December 13-17)

Precious metal prices on Friday settled slightly higher. Gold on Friday closed +0.38% and Silver closed up +1.00%. A weaker US Dollar on Friday supported the metal’s gains along with lower T-note yields as there was increased price pressure due to global demand for gold as an inflation hedge, after the US November CPI rose +6.8%, the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 41 years. Gold continues to be supported as a safe-haven from the negative impact of the spread of the delta and omicron variants of Covid around the world on the world economic recovery.

XAUUSD,D1

XAUUSD, D1

Gold prices against the US Dollar last week traded in a range bound between 1761.85 and 1808.63 with a total weakness of 0.11% in the weekly inside pin-bar pattern. Signals favouring a rise in asset prices this week would be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI) or a rebound from the latest low that served as minor support at 1761.85. If the cancellation of the option goes up, the asset price will fall and a break of the 1761.85 price level will target 1750.00 before moving further to the support level 1721.59 and the year low at 1676.77.

On the upside, a break of the 1808.63 minor resistance will target the 1834.00 resistance and the asset price will have to sit back above the 1834.00 resistance to confirm the value growth. However, the price of 1800.00 will temporarily become a dynamic resistance, which is also the 200-day exponential moving average.

XAUUSD,H4

XAUUSD,H4

The intraday bias temporarily looks neutral below the round number 1800.00 level but selling pressure cannot be ignored, especially since the price is below the 200 EMA moving average. A break of the minor support 1761.85 would trigger some selling to send the price lower to 1750.00. As long as the support at 1761.81 or the lower trendline holds, it is possible that there will be see some price fluctuations this week. On the upside, there would need to be a test of the minor resistance 1703.02 and 1808.63 before being able to retest the resistance level 1834.00.

Overall, asset prices tend to be more towards consolidation which is confirmed from transaction data in the form of slim monthly body candles.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /294301/
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Invest in Mastercard and cash in on credit cards

Payment-processing giant Mastercard is one half of a duopoly, and keeps investing in future growth.

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Investment Bank Outlook 13-12-2021

CitiEuropean OpenA week full of events is lined up, with several central bank decisions. However, the Asian session started slowly, with markets quiet. USD ticked higher, while UST yields edged higher as well, in a positive session for equities. The G10 complex traded in line with a stronger dollar, although we noted little significant moves. GBP was the exception, ticking lower –0.3%, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned over the weekend about the Covid surge in the UK. On the other hand, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today that Auckland will ease some Covid restrictions on New Year’s Eve.Looking forward, we eye a quiet day in terms of data and events. EUR will see quarterly Italy Unemployment rates (09:00 GMT), while TRY will see CA and IP data (07:00 GMT). CPI releases will be sighted in RON (07:00 GMT) and INR (12:00 GMT).A lens on the USUSD ticked higher in a quiet session, marked with little movements in the G10 space. UST yields edged higher as well, as noted by our trader Hideyuki Liu below:–Slow trading session in treasuries to begin the week, with yields modestly higher across the curve in a positive day for equities. 10y yields have gravitated back towards 1.50%, and front-end yields have also pared gains after trading well post-CPI on Friday. Desk flows were more limited, but good FM interest was seen in steepeners in structures like 10s30s curve.Last week’s CPI print keeps the Fed on track to speed taper, as noted by Citi Economics. To recap, US November Core CPI came right in line with expectations at 0.5%MoM (0.5%e, 0.6%p). However, markets saw it as a slight disappointment since many in the markets were bracing for a higher reading. USD sold off against the bulk of G10 FX on Friday NY session, but traded mixed against EM FX. Price action began after strong US CPI and Michigan Sentiment data did little to inspire the greenback. Friday’s flows instead followed rallying commodity prices for the majors and poor liquidity conditions for EM.CIBCFX FlowsCryptocurrencies slipped, Bitcoin down nearly 2%, triggered by announcement from Binance that it has withdrawn its application for a licence to run a cryptocurrency exchange in Singapore. One blogger wrote the move was linked to liquidation of long positions.$Yen firmed up but the activity has been rather mild, I suspect there are offers lined up at 113.60. Well, exporters are trying to increase hedging hence putting out offers. The retail day traders are looking to add to long USD by putting out bids, I think under 113.30. In excess of $3.6bn worth of 113.00 strikes and about $3bn of 113.75 strikes will roll off this week. Guess you know the range till FOMC?The Bank of England and European Central Bank have their rate decision this week, none of them will do anything. EUR$ moved, wasn’t a big deal, little lower. There has been some talk that offers scattered above 1.1320, they were leftovers from last Friday. They could be linked to 1.1320 option strike due today for €2bn. Not much talked about on the downside.GBP$ opened lower on back of report over the weekend that PM Boris Johnson is facing cabinet revolt over Partygate and about 65 Tory MPs have refused to support the PM’s Plan votes on Tuesday. Latest Opinium poll for the Observer showed that UK Labour surged into a commanding nine-point lead over the Tories this weekend as controversies over rule-breaking Christmas parties at Downing Street. The poll puts Labour on 41%, the Tories are now on 32%. It also shows 57% of voters think Johnson should now resign, up nine points from a fortnight ago. Move lower has been shallow, story published in FT said that PM Johnson has offered climbdown in talks with EU. It appeared that the PM was no longer seeking the immediate axing of ECJ from its role in enforcing the NI protocol. Not muchto say in terms of offers, I guess they are distant around 1.3370.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-13-12-2021"
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Two flexible multi-manager investment trusts to buy now

Alliance Trust and Witan investment trusts have different approaches to investing, but both follow strategies that could do well in more volatile markets

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/604209/alliance-trust-and-witan-investment-trusts-to-buy-now
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Dollar Edges Higher; Fed Meeting the Highlight of Busy Week

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-edges-higher-fed-meeting-the-highlight-of-busy-week-2709117
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Daily Market Outlook, December 13, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, December 13, 2021 Overnight Headlines Fed Hikes Seen Starting As Yield Curve Flattest In Generation Biden Warns Russia Of Economic Penalty If Ukraine Attacked Senate Democrats Brace For Build Back Better Delay To 2022 Covid-19 Cases Increase In Many US States Post Thanksgiving Bank Of Canada To Show New Inflation Mandate On Monday China Seen Adding Fiscal Stimulus Soon After Show Priorities ECB’s Guindos Tests Positive For Covid Before Policy Meeting UK PM Warns Of Covid Emergency, Sets New Booster Target UK Offer Concession Over Northern Ireland Trading Relations Germany Scholz Seeks To Ensure Gas Flows Through Ukraine Greece Plans To Make Push For ECB To Keep Buying Its Bonds Israeli Study Finds Pfizer Booster Protects Vs Omicron VariantThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are down this morning as risk sentiment turns more cautious. Reports suggest that China’s key annual conference for officials to discuss the economy will be primarily focused on supporting economic growth. That contrasts to the situation in the US and some other countries where the focus is increasingly turning to concerns about higher inflation. A vote on the latest Covid restrictions will be held in the House of Commons on Tuesday. Reports suggest that many Conservative MPs may either abstain or vote against the measures possibly causing the government to rely on opposition support. Just released UK GDP data showed a lower-than-expected monthly rise of just 0.1% for October. That belies indications from business surveys that growth had picked up heading into Q4. Services output grew by 0.4% on the month but industrial production fell by 0.6% and construction output by 1.8%, possibly reflecting the ongoing impact of supply constraints. The data will probably lead to some downgrade of Q4 GDP expectations and possibly also for Q1 given the recent evidence of the new Covid variant, which has prompted a tightening in some restrictions. Also of interest in the UK today will be the latest Bank of England inflation attitudes survey. The BoE’s forecast that inflation will fall sharply through the second half of next year (after peaking in Q2) is partly predicated on inflation expectations remaining low and so this survey will be watched for whether expectations of future price rises remain well anchored. In the US, for today’s November CPI report look for a rise from 6.2%y/y in October to 6.7%, which would make it the highest since 1982. Meanwhile, core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise from 4.6% to 4.8%. Also of interest will be how widespread is the rise in prices. For most of this year, the bulk of the increase in inflation has been from commodity prices and goods affected by supply chain disruptions. However last month’s report indicated that price rises may be broadening to services, adding pressure on policymakers to rein back monetary support. The December University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will provide evidence on US households’ reaction to the latest news including the ongoing rise in inflation and Omicron. Sentiment slipped sharply last month to its lowest level in more than a decade reflecting rising concerns about both current conditions and the future. The survey also includes questions about inflation expectations. Unsurprisingly short-term expectations have moved up sharply this year, but longer-term expectations have been more stable. The Federal Reserve is likely to be particularly interested in whether that is still the case in December.CFTC DataIMM data for the week through December 7th show speculative investors remain reluctant to extend aggregate long USD positioning much beyond recent peaks. This week’s data reflected an overall decline of USD 4.4bn in the netted long USD exposure against all the major currencies we monitor in this report. The aggregated net USD long stands at USD20.3bn, keeping USD bullish sentiment firm but hardly excessive.The latest week’s data reflected a broad reduction is speculative shorts against a range of currencies, possibly reflecting investor concerns about the evolution of the Omicron variant. The largest decline came in the net EUR short position that had accumulated recently; investors slashed this position USD2.2bn in the week to USD1.2bn. The second largest position reduction was in the JPY where investors have maintained a large net short since March of last year; net JPY short covering of USD1.8bn continued a trend of JPY risk reduction evident since late October and takes the net short back to levels prevailing in late September. Interestingly, our research suggests that both the EUR and JPY are the most positively correlated major currencies with the VIX now (i.e., they are the prime refuge currencies for investors in times of heightened vol).Positioning changes elsewhere were more muted. Net CAD shorts were cut USD361mn and net CHF shorts were trimmed just over USD300mn. CAD positioning/sentiment still leans modestly negative but there is little real conviction evident in these data. Investors added slightly to net AUD shorts over the week (up USD108mn) but added ever so marginally to net NZD longs. Net MXN positioning was little changed. Beyond the major currencies, net gold longs were cut USD1.3bnG10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )EUR/USD: 1.1250 (1.0BLN), 1.1290-1.1300 (820M), 1.1320-25 (680M)1.13-50-60 (530M), 1.1375-85 (1.75BLN)USD/JPY: 112.50-55 (302M), 113.10-20 (1.2BLN), 113.50-60 (555M)113.95-00 (780M), 114.25 (1.145BLN)USD/CHF: 0.9140-45 (380M), 0.9250 (400M), 0.9340-50 (340M)GBP/USD: 1.3200 (860M), 1.3225 (229M), 1.3250 (588M), 1.3300 (263M)EUR/GBP: 0.8540 (200M). NZD/USD: 0.6925 (251M)AUD/USD: 0.6900 (1BLN), 0.7000 (580M), 0.7100-05 (880M), 0.7115 (412M)0.7185 (306M)AUD/NZD: 1.0275 (330M), 1.0375 (400M), 1.0400 (330M). AUD/JPY: 78.10 (250M)USD/CAD: 1.2615 (320M), 1.2740-45 (650M), 1.2800 (303M),1.2850 (714M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above EUR sags in Asia, dovish ECB later this week to blame? EUR tad heavy in Asia into a week jam-packed with central bank meetings Russia-Ukraine tensions and Omicron spread also concerns EUR/USD 1.1319 early to 1.1293 EBS, back below 1.1301-10 hourly Ichi cloud Through 1.1297 100-HMA, flat Ichi kijun just below at 1.1295 too Trading light, inside day, range Friday 1.1266-1.1319 Large option expiries both sides - 1.1250 E1.4 bln, 1.1320 E2 bln EUR/JPY 128.44 early Asia to 128.26, EUR/GBP 0.8525-34, also tad heavy EUR/CHF indicated 1.0415-23 DTCC traded FX option data shows massive nearby strikes expiring Monday Related delta hedging helps contain, adds to support and resistance 1.5-billion euros 1.1250, 1.1-billion 1.1270-1.1300, 2-billion 1.1320 Option implied volatility supported ahead of key cen-bank meetings Shows market wary of post cen-bank volatility, despite being quiet ahead 1-month risk reversals have erased long term downside premiumGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Softer on Omicron growth, as BoE hike fears fade -0.15% in a 1.3234-1.3260 range with only occasional interest Opened lower on UK's PM warns of Omicron 'tidal wave'... COVID alert level raised from 3 to 4... – vote on 'Plan B' Tuesday BOE WATCH closed with no rate change Thursday at 75.5% - likely higher today Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages, 21 day Bollinger bands head lower Bearish setup targets a break of 1.3166, 38.2% of the 2020-2021 rise Close above 1.3328 falling 21 day moving average needed to end downtrend Earlier 1.3234 Asian low and 1.3276 NY high are initial support, resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below USD/JPY propped by solid daily cloud support this month Thick daily cloud, that spans the 111.90-113.26 region, underpins Daily cloud support has limited the downside throughout December so far That increases scope for further gains to challenge kijun line at 114.03 A break and daily close above will accelerate further up to the 114.38 Fibo 114.38 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 115.52 to 112.54 November drop EUR/JPY has seen a 128.15-128.44 range, according to EBS price dataAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above Offered despite upbeat risk appetite, as USD firms -0.05% with safe haven USD a touch firmer, despite E-Mini S&P +0.4% Regional stocks are bid, commodities higher and UST yields steady Omicron cases rise, but vaccination levels high as borders open Economic outlook optimistic, as booster shots rolled out Charts; daily momentum studies flat line, 21 day Bollinger bands contract 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages conflict - neutral setup, but downtrend holds Sustained 0.7175 21 DMA & 0.7208, 38.2% Oct-Dec fall break would be bullish Close below 0.7116 10 day moving average would bring downtrend back in play

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-13-2021"
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Market Update – December 13 – Omicron sentiment improves to start Big week

Hot CPI data on Friday, all-time highs for stocks and a steady to stronger USD, greets a big week for central banks as markets enter the last three weeks of the year. 

• USD (USDIndex 96.22) rises from dips below 96.00 on Friday. Omicron news improves, case peaks appear to have been hit in Gauteng, South Africa, hospitalizations have stabilized and projected death rates appear to be 25 times lower than Delta, mixing Pfizer, AZ & Moderna vaccines appear to give better immunity and Anti-viral drugs from Merck & GSK new data improving. US deaths top 800k, is now present in 30 states and first Omicron case traced to November 15. Stocks hit new all-time highs Friday USA500 +0.95% (+44pts) 4712, Futures now at 4722
• US Yields 10-year rates fell to 1.48%, down about 5 basis points from last week’s peak, and trades at 1.49% now.
• Asian Markets – Asian indices are broadly higher, despite a slightly weaker than hoped Tankan survey for Japan and more omicron warnings, which were counterbalanced by signs that China will take further steps to boost the economy. Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.1% and 0.7% respectively, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are posting gains of 0.5% and 0.7%. Shanghai and Shenzen Comp have lifted 0.4% and 0.6% so far and the ASX closed 0.4% higher.
• USOil – continues to recover and holds over $70.00 for a 5th consecutive day and trades at $72.25. 
• Gold – dipped to test key $1770 on Friday, recovering to $1785 now  

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, U.S. futures are outperforming slightly, but are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently posting gains of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively and U.S. futures are also posting gains of around 0.3%. In FX markets both Euro and Sterling struggled against a largely stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.1285 and Cable at 1.3227 and USDJPY at 113.50. The UK upped its warnings on the omicron variant over the weekend and is targetting all adults to have received a booster by year-end, a month ahead of current schedule. In the  short run at least, the risks to growth forecasts are to the downside, which will also overshadow central bank decisions this week.

BoE, ECB, SNB and Norges Bank are all set to announce policy on Thursday – hot on the heels of the FOMC decision on Wednesday. For the BoE it will likely mean that the flagged rate hike will be pushed out into next year, and possibly 2023 although inflation and labour market data ahead of the announcement could throw a spanner in the works. 

Today – OPEC Oil Market Report, BoE Financial Stability Report, Speech from BOE’s Bailey.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.31%) Recovered from sub-1.3200 Friday to 1.3265 highs, down on open and 1.325 now.  Currently MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower, RSI 46.00 & weakening.  H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily 0.0081.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell  

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /294272/
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BTCUSD, H4 | Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 53612.58Pivot: 51791.83Support: 46979.83Preferred Case:Price is abiding to descending trendline resistance, signifying overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 50% FIbonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and horizontal support. Our bearish bias is further supported by the 100 period moving average.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push higher towards 1st Resistance in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-bearish-continuation13thdec"
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Dollar Up, Investors’ Christmas Wish is for Omicron, Central Bank Clarity

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Dollar steady as traders wait for central banks, pound inches lower on COVID fears

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Bitcoin rises 2.1% to reclaim $50,000

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-rises-21-to-reclaim-50000-2708778
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Stéphane Bancel: Moderna’s biotech whizz who changed the world

Stéphane Bancel had a safe job as CEO of a French multinational when he decided to risk it all on a promising but unproven medical technology. The bet paid off handsomely.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/604214/stephane-bancel-modernas-biotech-whizz-who-changed-the-world
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