USDJPY, H4 | Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 113.967Pivot: 113.619Support: 113.435Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 113.619 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 113.967 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 113.435 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

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Market Update – December 15 – FOMC Day – A Hawkish FOMC priced in?

• USD (USDIndex 96.39) holds onto gains, close to 2-week high.  Stocks closed lower (Nasdaq worst performer again  -1.14%) & Yields drop. US PPI climbed to 9.6% from 8.8%, a new ATH. Major FX pairs sideways into FED. US Senate agrees government funding into February. Asian markets largely weaker. Omicron news mixed – Pfizer says pill is 90% effective in final trails, Sinovax & the 3 US vaccines – ineffective after 2 doses vs Omicron – US study, Omicron spreading at “unprecedented rate” – WHO.
• US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.416% up to 1.438 now.
• Equities – USA500 -34.88 (-0.75%) at 4634 – USA500.F trades flat at 4633. MFST -3.26%. Musk could have off-loaded $18 million worth of #TSLA (-0.82%) stock by year end – CNBC.
• USOil – under $70.00 – EIA unsure about Omicron impact on fuel demand – trades at $69.40 testing 8-day lows. 
• Gold spiked to $1790, sank to $1782, now struggles at $1788.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1275, USDJPY 113.70, Cable recovers from breach of  1.3200 to trade at 1.3245 now. (99 Tory MP’s voted against the PM Johnstone’s  plans for further restrictions, motion was passed with opposition support)

Overnight – CNY – mixed data Factory output speeds up but Retail Sales miss (3.9% vs 4.9%),  GBP CPI jumps to 5.1% (10-yr high) vs 4.8% vs 4.2% last time – CORE leaps to 4.0% from 3.4%. RPI (which only looks at consumption is up to 7.1%) – plus – factory gate prices are up 9.1% and input costs up 14.3% on a year ago – even more grist to the mill for the BOE hawks.  

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, while the 30-year year has moved higher overnight. U.S. futures are also posting fractional gains. A mixed and cautious picture then as markets wait for the FOMC announcement, which is expected to confirm a faster tapering schedule, despite latest virus developments. The DAX future is up 0.17% the FTSE 100 is down -1.6%, as the BoE starts its meeting.

Central banks will have a difficult task trying to balance inflation concerns & virus nerves though the FOMC it seems remains on course to speed up tapering. ECB still looks dovish by comparison, even if it is set to confirm the timely end of PEPP on Thursday, which is keeping a lid on EUR. BOE is also expected to push back the flagged rate hike into 2022 as virus restrictions are tightening.

Today – Canadian CPI, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Retail Sales, DoEs, FOMC policy announcement and Fed Chair Powell press conference

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.36%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday at 0.6538 to 0.6585 now. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & have breached 0 Line, RSI 60.95 & rising.  H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily 0.0072.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or fu

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GBPCAD, H4 | Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 1.70905Pivot: 1.70076Support: 1.68347Preferred Case:Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance, signifying an overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Support in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is at the resistance level.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price can push higher towards 1st Resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci projection.

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Dollar holds firm as investors eye major Fed policy meeting

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/dollar-holds-firm-as-investors-eye-major-fed-policy-meeting-2711851
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A hotter US PPI Index at all-time highs, again

EURUSD,H1

US PPI showed huge November gains of 0.8% for the headline and 0.7% for the core that rounded from respective increases of 0.835% and 0.685%. The y/y PPI gain climbed to 9.6% from 8.8% (was 8.6%) in September and October to leave an eighth consecutive all-time high, while the core y/y gain rose to 7.7% from 7.0% (was 6.8%) in September and October to leave a ninth consecutive all-time high. On a moving average basis, PPI headline and core gains are actually slipping from bigger gains earlier in the year. We have 6-month average price gains of 0.748% for the headline and 0.618% for the core that slightly undershoot respective 12-month average gains of 0.778% and 0.625%. In December, the consensus for PPI gains are 0.3% for the headline and 0.6% for the core. The y/y headline metric would then tick up to 9.7% from today’s 9.6% new all-time high. Also the expectations are for the y/y core price gain to climb to an 8.2% new all-time high from today’s 7.7% all-time high. The y/y gains should finally moderate starting in January due to much easier comparisons.

The Greenback  was little changed, but a bit higher on net following the much hotter PPI outcome. USDJPY dipped to 113.44 from 113.55 before recovering to 113.60 while EURUSD edged up to 1.1318 from 1.1310 but has reversed back below 1.1300 at the opening bell. The main US equity markets have all opened in the red, with the USA100 once again the weakest, down by over -1.0%, and the USA500 shedding -0.3%. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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UBS chief investment office stops coverage of U.S. dollar-Turkish lira pair

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Turkish lira slides again after rollercoaster ride to record low

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Afghanistan central bank says it is acting to halt currency slide

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Insurance renewal quotes: new rules mean you may not have to switch

Consumers have long complained that car and home insurance renewal quotes rise every year unless they switch. But from next month, insurers will be banned from penalising long-standing customers.

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Investment Bank Outlook 14-12-2021

CitiEuropean OpenAnother quiet session in Asia, as we gear up for the week of central bank decisions. Both USD and UST yields ticked slightly higher. AUD dipped 0.3% on flows and thin liquidity. Japan saw the BOJ announce another two repo operations in what now seems clearly an effort to reverse the recent rise in repo rates as we approach year-end, although JPY was little affected by this news, trading flat on the day.Looking ahead, USD will see NFIB Small Business Optimism Tuesday (11:00 GMT), followed by PPI (13:30 GMT). GBP will eye a jobs report (07:00 GMT), followed by BoE's Breeden and Foulger on the financial stability report (11:30 GMT). SEK will see CPI (08:30 GMT) while WUR will see Eurozone IP (10:00 GMT). The highlight will however be the central bank decisions in HUF (13:00 GMT) and CLP (21:00 GMT) where Citi Economics expect +50bps to 2.60% and +125bps to 4.00% respectively. BRL sees central bank minutes (11:00 GMT).A lens on the USUSD ticked higher yet again in a quiet session, marked with little movements in the G10 space. UST yields edged higher as well, except for the 5yr which was flat. Our trader Hideyuki Liu summarises the session below:–Another muted session, which traded flat most of the time. Treasuries went out near the highs in NY yesterday, but have opened softer with desk flows skewed to two-way in 10s by RM and modestly better selling in the long-end. There has been selling in the screens in 5y, which have seen the highest volumes, and the sector has underperformed on the curve.CIBCFX FlowsUSD mildly higher against most currencies in the G10 space, small risk-off, AUD$, NZD$ lower from opening levels, Hong Kong indices weak.EUR$ slightly lower over the morning but felt like someone lifted €AUD which kept the EUR$ up. No decent option strikes today, but for the week more than €3.3bn of 1.1300 rolls off, the big one is on Friday.AUD$ took out the 0.7106 support, our macro strategist Patrick said it is an important level. This was former low and then resistance (broken) on the way back up. It felt like cross play when EUR$ was pushed up and AUD$ down to 0.70975. Risk sentiment also put pressure on the AUDNZD cross. Next support for the AUD$ should be 0.7060. Traders are reminded of large strike at 0.7000 this week, biggest is A$2.04bn due Friday.The BBC News reported that at least one person in the UK has died from the omicron variant. Health Sec Sajid Javid told MPs Omicron now represented 20% of cases in England. UK Health Security Agency revealed that omicron infections running at 200k a day. Do note there is a byelection as well in North Shropshire on Thursday. Neil Shastray-Hurst, Conservative candidate, has admitted there has been anger over the alleged Christmas parties held in Whitehall and No 10 last year. Bookmakers have made the Liberal Democrats the favourites to win, according to The Guardian. If the Tory Party loses this byelection, the party could embark on a civil war with only one outcome: the replacement of its leader. GBP$ drifted little lower, overall there was not much interest.$Yen is dull. We have been on 113-handle since start of December. Even the Japanese retail day traders are playing the range. Traded higher initially however selling of Yen-crosses in the late morning brought the USD back to square one.

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Dollar in Demand Ahead of Fed Meeting; Hits One-Week High

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FOMC kicks off its two day session – Whats expected?

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, and will issue its post-meeting statement at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday. The market widely anticipates an acceleration in the pace of taper that brings an end to new purchases by March, and will seek signals regarding the timing of eventual rate hikes. The Fed is fully expected to speed up the tapering to $30 bln per month from the $15 bln clip as policymakers address the rise in inflationary pressures alongside the strengthening in the Q4 economy and labor market.

The inflation threat has picked up, and the pop to multi-decade highs and the persistence of pressures resulted in the decision to “retire“ the transitory characterization. The Committee now wants to end this phase of accommodation to gain more flexibility on normalization. Assuming an end of QE in March, many Fedwatchers see liftoff in June, with some even pushing up the first hike to May. However, the FOMC is unlikely to commence liftoff that soon but will be more cautious in assessing conditions. Quarter point hikes are seen in September and December.

For the funds rate projections in the SEP, it is widely expected the 2022-23 estimates to be raised by about 0.3% given the hawkish shift in policy. The 2022 median should show two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022, consistent with the need to accelerate the QE taper to open the door to a sooner rate hike than previously anticipated. The Committee will tread more cautiously on rate hikes, probably holding off for several months before liftoff.

Farther out, we do not expect changes in the 2024 forecasts, consistent with the view that inflation will be decelerating. The SEP was updated at the September meeting and will be revised again in December. Unfortunately for the Fed, inflation forecasts will again be a cause of embarrassment as they should mark a fifth consecutive SEP with upward revisions. The SEP will likely reveal big 2021 cuts in both the GDP and jobless rate estimates, but huge boosts in the PCE chain price forecasts. The last SEP updates were in September, when GDP estimates were also cut but jobless rate estimates were raised slightly. The chain price estimates were boosted in each of the last four SEP updates.

In the Q&A, Chair Powell will face the usual questions about the big 2021 inflation overshoot and the inflation risks we face in 2022.

The following, summarize economic developments that have occurred since the last FOMC meeting in November regarding the labor market, inflation and consumption.

The Labor Market: Payrolls have posted solid 2021 growth, with an average gain of 555k year-to-date, after a 2020 average payroll drop of -785k. The jobless rate reached a bottom in the last expansion of 3.5% in February of 2020, before surging to a 14.7% peak in April of 2020. The rate has since eased to 4.2% through November, a low since the onset of the pandemic. The participation rate tumbled from a 5-year high of 63.3% in January and February of 2020 to a 48-year low of 60.2% in April of 2020, before climbing back to 61.8% through November of this year. The y/y average hourly earnings gauge was lifted sharply in April of 2020 by the shift in the compositional mix of jobs with the shutdowns, as layoffs were heavily concentrated among low-wage employees.

Employment in the goods sector has been climbing steadily, though at a restrained rate since an April dip, after solid improvement through the second half of 2020. The goods sector is facing substantial headwinds in 2021 from supply chain disruptions that were less apparent in 2020.

Service sector employment has improved in every month of this year, after a -356k drop in December of 2020 that capped a string of big gains. Monthly service sector changes are averaging 470k thus far in 2021 from -609k in 2020, versus 141k in 2019 and 131k in 2018.

Other measures of labor under-utilization include those marginally attached to the labor force, discouraged workers, and part-time workers for economic reasons.

Wage growth settled into a sustained rate at or just above 3% between 2018 and early-2020, before the pandemic-related spike starting in March of 2020 from the mass layoffs of low-paid workers that changed the mix of employment. A 3.0% y/y rise for wages in February of 2020 was followed by a two-month gain to 8.2% in April of 2020, before the drop-back to 0.3% in May of 2021, but a rebound since then back to 4.8% in November. Beyond clumsy base-effects, y/y wage growth has moved higher on net with the pandemic, given the shift away from low-paid workers, and labor shortages in a wide array of industries.

Inflation: We’ve seen a powerful updraft in commodity and construction material prices in 2021 that is lifting inflation prospects for the year. We saw y/y CPI gains of 6.8% in November that marked a 39-year high, 6.2% in October that marked a 31-year high, and gains of 5.4% in September, 5.3% in August, and 5.4% in both July and June that all marked 13-year highs.

The Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, posted October y/y gains of 5.0% for the headline and 4.1% for the core, after respective September increases of 4.4% and 3.7%, leaving 31-year highs for the headline and core in both months. April of 2020 marked a trough for the inflation measures.

Consumption: Real PCE slowed sharply in Q3 with the onset of a retail sales pullback, as we unwound stimulus boosts via direct deposits to individuals in Q1. Real consumption growth was 1.7% in Q3, after rates of 12.0% in Q2, 11.4% in Q1, 3.4% in Q4, and 2020’s big pandemic-zigzag that left a Q3 growth clip of 41.0% after a -33.2% contraction rate in Q2.

GDP looks poised for growth near 7.0% in Q4, after reported rates of 2.1% in Q3, 6.7% in Q2, and 6.3% in Q1.

Nevertheless, Markets will be focused on the Fed’s verbiage in the press conference regarding any indication of timing for the start of Fed rate hikes. The markets will continue to monitor the degree to which the Fed will tolerate the current inflation overshoot, given the Fed’s shift to an average inflation targeting regime in 2020 that will be tested in 2022.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, December 14, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, December 14, 2021 Overnight Headlines WH Scrambles To Salvage Build Back Better Bill By Christmas Senate To Vote Tuesday On Raising Government's Debt Limit Sec Blinken Hits Out At China, Seeks To Rally US Allies In Asia US House, Senate Near Uyghur Bill Agreement Toward China California Reinstitute Statewide Mask Mandate As Cases Rise Chinese Property Crisis To Drag Economy Down In November China Needs Cut Rates To Lift Growth, Beijing Think Tank Say BoJ Offers Cash Injection To Combat Rising Short-Term Rates Europeans Warn Time Save Iranian Nuclear Deal Running Out UK, EU Set To Push Negotiations On Northern Ireland To 2022 Vaccine Site To Open In UK Stadiums As Omicron Cases Surge EU Plan End-Date To Long-Term Gas Deal Favoured By RussiaThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are down this morning following declines yesterday in Europe and the US. Concerns about China’s property market have been cited as one reason for the fall, while the potential impact of Omicron remains a key uncertainty. The UK Health Security Agency has estimated that new cases of the Covid variant are running at 200,000 a day in the UK. Meanwhile, reports suggest that talks between the UK and the EU on Northern Ireland will be pushed into 2022. Just released UK labour market data for the three months to October show a further rise in employment of 149k and a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2% (from 4.3%). The continued decline in unemployment in the period that included the end of the government’s furlough scheme seems to confirm that most workers still on the scheme at its end have returned to their previous employers. With the level of unfilled job vacancies at a new record high, it appears that the labour market remains very tight for now. Despite that, wage growth slowed again, although it appeared that the data is still so impacted by the pandemic that it remains hard to gauge the underlying trend. The UK House of Commons will today debate and vote on the latest Covid restrictions in England. Reports suggest that a sizeable number of Conservative MPs may either abstain or vote against the Government. It should still win but may need the vote of Opposition parties who plan to vote in favour of the restrictions. Eurozone industrial production is expected to have risen by about 1.2% in October. Already released data for the biggest countries in the region has been mixed, but a big rise in German production points to a sizeable gain. In the US, November producer price data will be watched for any sign that inflationary pressures are easing. Meanwhile, the NFIB small business survey for November will provide an update on confidence in an important part of the economy. UK consumer price inflation data, to be released early Wednesday, is forecast to show another rise. Headline CPI inflation increased by more than predicted to 4.2% in October, more than double the BoE’s 2% target. Expect it to jump up to 4.8% in November driven by higher food, petrol, clothing & footwear and used car prices, and higher tobacco duties. The Bank of England is forecasting that it will move even higher in early 2022 before starting to fall back later in the year. Longer-dated government bond yields fell yesterday as the mood in markets turned more risk averse. UK markets are also expecting the Bank of England to delay a hike in interest rates. In contrast the US Federal Reserve is still expected to accelerate the pace of tapering of its asset purchase programme. However, US interest rate expectations edged down yesterday reflecting uncertainty about how quickly the Fed might follow through with a rise in rates. G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )USDJPY - 116.00 437m. 115.00 535m. 114.20/30 483m. 113.80/90 1.42bn (949m C). 113.50/60 613m. 113.00/10 1.03bn (601m P). 109.90/110.00 532m.EURUSD - 1.1520 449m. 1.1440/60 1.16bn (840m C). 1.1330 495m. 1.1310/20 447m. 1.1290/1.1300 684m.AUDUSD - 0.7340/50 637m. 0.7200/10 1.13bn (642m P). 0.7130 647m. 0.7090/0.71000 531m. 0.7000/10 417m.NZDUSD - 0.6890/0.6900 432m.USDCAD - 1.3000 531m. 1.2750 515m. 1.2700/10 475m. 1.2670/80 670m. 1.2500 436m.EURGBP - 0.8550 396m. 0.8530 538m. 0.8450 710m. 0.8350 736m.AUDJPY - 81.60 1.31bn (P). 78.30 1.36bn (P).USDCNH - 6.49 436m. 6.40 434m.Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above EUR heavy in Asia, down still path of least resistance? EUR/USD heavy in Asia, 1.1274-84 EBS, holding just above recent lows Support still around 1.1200 but moves above 1.1300 proving to be heavy 1.1200, 1.1186 spike low Nov 24 levels to watch downside Option expiries today to help cap market, 1.1295-1.1300 E753 mln HMAs fanning out, to help cap too, 55 at 1.1291, 200 1.1297, 100 1.1300 EUR/JPY thin, choppy, Asia 128.00-22 EBS, also holding above recent lows EUR/GBP indicated 0.8538-42, EUR/CHF 1.0402-29, both heavy alsoGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Softer as Omicron expands, undermining risk appetite -0.1% at the base of a very tight 1.3200-1.3210 range with modest interest BoE between a rock and a hard place as sterling slides Britain reports first death with Omicron coronavirus variant... Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages, 21 day Bollinger bands head lower Bearish setup targets a break of 1.3166, 38.2% of the 2020-2021 rise 1.3160 break brings 1.2830-50 - 50% 2020-21 rise, Oct-Nov 2020 low into play Close above 1.3316 falling 21 day moving average needed to end downtrend Friday's 1.3188 base and 1.3268 NY high are initial support, resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below USD/JPY buoyant, market thin and choppy USD/JPY 113.48-67 EBS in Asia, market thin and choppy USD broadly bid on expectations of hawkish Fed tomorrow, with risk off Most Asia bourses in red, Nikkei -0.8% @28,397, E-Minis +0.1% @4665 US yields remain depressed, Treasury 10s @1.422%, low o/n 1.412% USD/JPY buoyant, above 113.18 Ichi cloud top, near 113.50 55-HMA Lge option expiries both sides - 113.00 $926 mln, 113.80-114.00 $1.5 bln Most eye range on 113 into key central bank decision, next week? EUR/JPY 128.00-22, GBP/JPY 149.72-150.14, AUD/JPY 80.46-81.02, heavyAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above Heavy on subdued risk demand, as Omicron spreads Off 0.45% and weaker across the board, AUD/NZD -0.3%, AUD/JPY -0.4% AUD a proxy for risk appetite - regional stocks and commodities are lower NSW recorded 804 new COVID-19 cases, a post lockdown high as Omicron spreads Australian business conditions improve, as jobs rebound in Nov Charts; daily momentum studies flat line, 21 day Bollinger bands contract 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages crest - neutral setup as downtrend holds Sustained 0.7175 21 DMA & 0.7208, 38.2% Oct-Dec fall break would be bullish Close below broken 0.7110 10 DMA would bring downtrend back in play

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Market Update – Omicron Sentiment slips – Fed in Focus

• USD (USDIndex 96.35) holds Mondays gains (95.40),  Stocks closed lower (Nasdaq  worst performer -1.39%) & Yields drop (10-yr 1.422%). Major FX pairs sideways into FED meeting. Omicron news weighed, first death in UK, WHO – this variant is “very high risk” but data on severity limited, & another study shows two-dose vaccines don’t lower antibodies.
• US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.416% up to 1.4216 now
• Equities – USA500 -43.00 (-0.91%) at 4668 – USA500.F trades higher at 4878.
• USOil – lost over $2.00 under $70.50 – now recovered $71.00. and trades at 71.20 
• Gold spiked to $1790, sank to $1782 and now struggles at $1788 
• FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1270, USDJPY now 113.70, & Cable back down to  1.3200, from 1.3275 yesterday . 

Overnight – JPY Industrial production, much better than expected, AUD business confidence better than expected and GBP data dump also better than expected (Earnings 4.9% vs 4.6% & 5.9% last time, Claims down nearly 50k vs 15K last time and expectations of -31k and Unemployment unchanged at 4.2%.

European Open – March 10-year Bund future is down -0.6 bp at 174.62, slightly underperforming versus Treasury futures. Yields remain at low levels though, as markets keep a weary eye on omicron developments while waiting for this week’s round of central bank meetings. The FOMC kicks off its two day session today, with an announcement due tomorrow. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. Sentiment is stabilising after virus restrictions.

Central banks will have a difficult task trying to balance inflation concerns and virus nerves although the FOMC it seems remains on course to speed up the tapering schedule. The ECB still looks dovish by comparison, even if it is set to confirm the timely end of PEPP on Thursday, which is keeping a lid on the EUR. The BoE is also expected to push back the flagged rate hike into 2022 as virus restrictions are being tightening and cable has dropped to test 1.3200. This mornings jobs news adds to the Hawks at the BOE.

Today – IEA OMR, EZ Industrial Production, US PPI

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.23%)  pair slip after 5-day rally from under 0.9000 to 0.9135. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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