NFTs – the blockchain art frenzy

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) became big business for the art world in 2021. Chris Carter reports

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Dollar Edges Lower After Hawkish Turn From ECB, BOE

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Daily Market Outlook, December 17, 2021

Daily Market Outlook, December 17, 2021 Overnight Headlines Biden Warns Unvaccinated Face Winter Of Severe Illness Democrats Fail Produce Year-End Build Back Better Deal Biden Step Up China Pressure Over Uyghurs Surveillance NYC Offices Empty, Shows Cancelled As Covid Sweeps In China Stats Revise 2020 GDP Growth Lower To 2.2% Y/Y Covid Forces China Manufacturing To Tighten Restrictions BoJ Scale Back Emergency Funding As Covid Strains Ease US Pushes EU To Ready Russian Energy, Banks Sanctions EU Leaders Disagree On Energy Amid Carbon Prices Row Voters Punish Scandal-Hit PM’s Party In UK Election Loss UK To Drop Court Demands On Northern Ireland Trading Variant, Inflation Chip Away At UK Consumer ConfidenceThe Day Ahead Risk sentiment turned negative during the Asian trading session, with equity markets mixed over the week. Japan’s Nikkei-225 still ended the week higher, but under-pressure tech stocks pulled Chinese indices lower. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged as expected and is maintaining stimulus measures for longer in the face of Omicron. In the UK, the big news was the Liberal Democrats victory in the North Shropshire by-election, overturning a Conservative majority of nearly 23,000 in 2019. Just released figures showed UK retail sales rising by 1.4%m/m in November, beating forecasts, while the prior month was also revised up to 1.1%m/m. The print may have been boosted by Black Friday discounts and early purchases following reports of supply difficulties. Timelier UK GfK consumer confidence, released overnight, showed a slight fall in December to -15 from -14 amid concerns about inflation and the new variant, although the decline was less than expected. The Lloyds Business Barometer report for December will be released next week (Tuesday). The German IFO survey today is expected to show a fall in business confidence for a seventh consecutive month. Sentiment has been declining on the back of rising Covid case numbers and supply chain disruptions in manufacturing. For December, expect the impact of the Omicron wave on health and the economy will add further downward pressure on the headline index to 95.5 from 96.5 in November, with services activity expected to be particularly affected by new restrictions and uncertainty. Eurozone November CPI inflation figures are expected to confirm the preliminary flash estimate showing a sharp rise to 4.9%, the highest since the inception of the euro. Yesterday, the ECB said that inflation is likely to remain above its 2% target for most of 2022, but still predicted it will fall below target thereafter. That justified its decision to continue with QE throughout next year, albeit with purchases at a gradually reduced pace.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )EUR/USD: 1.1200 (3.5B), 1.1250 (680M), 1.1290 (780M), 1.1300 (2.6B)1.1350 (1.5B), 1.1375-80 (1.7B), 1.1390-1.1400 (3.9B)USD/JPY: 113.00 (1.8B), 113.50-60 (1.4B), 113.75 (3.0B), 113.90 (760M)114.00-05 (1.7B), 114.50 (1.5B). GBP/USD: 1.3000 (1.8B)GBP/USD: 1.3150 (840M), 1.3200/10 (1.1B), 1.3250 (1.2B), 1.3350 (1.3B)EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (595M), 0.8400 (2.1B), 0.8450 (700M), 0.8500 (580M)0.8450 (355M), 0.8550 (1.1B), 0.8565 (350M), 0.8600 (330M)AUD/USD: 0.7000 (2.1B), 0.7100 (705M). USD/CAD: 1.2740-50 (630M)USD/CAD: 1.2800 (620M), 1.2850 (830M).Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above Bid as yield spreads close and the USD slips Steady after closing +0.3%, led by GBP and ECB flexible stance EZ-US yield spreads closed as dust settled on ECB/FED activity EU agrees with Moderna to rush COVID-19 vaccines to Germany. Battle with COVID-19 remains front and centre for European economies 21 day Bollinger bands contract, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages coil Momentum studies rise - mixed signals suggest 1.1300 may remain a magnet 1.1210-1.1368 21 day Bollinger bands likely define the broad range 1.1300 2.659 BLN and 1.1350 1.482 BLN strikes likely contain in AsiaGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Potential headache for PM Johnson +0.05% at the top of a very tight1.3322-1.3330 range with moderate interest UK's Liberal Democrats predict major upset in by-election vote If confirmed in safe Conservative seat - will pile pressure on PM Johnson Omicron and inflation chip away at UK consumer confidence - GfK Techs; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages conflict, 21 day Bolli bands contract Neutral setup, but the close above 1.3293 21 DMA targets 1.3417 upper Bolli Well tested 1.3166, 38.2% of the 2020-2021 rise remains pivotal support London 1.3259 low and NY 1.3375 high are initial support and resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below USD/JPY back on 113 handle, Asia 113.45-87, thin, choppy, on heavy side BoJ policy announcement shrugged off, as eyed, seen on hold indefinitely USD/JPY holding in area of ascending 55-DMA at 113.63 Daily Ichi cloud below between 111.90-113.31, also ascending Massive option expiries in area work to contain action 113.00 $1.8 bln, 113.50-60 $1.4 bln, 113.75 $3 bln, 113.90 $760 mln Also another $1.6 bln up between 114.00-05, 114.50 $1.5 bln Soggy US yields help cap, Treasury 2s @0.621%, 5s @1.170%, 10s @1.412% Nikkei -1.6% @28,601 on pre-weekend position adjustments, E-Minis -0.1%AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above COVID – 19 flares – 0.7260 test beckons technically Slipped 0.15%, trading towards the base of a low key 0.7169-0.7182 range Regional stocks mostly lower with Wall Street - other markets little changed UK, Australia sign deal forecast to give GBP10 BLN trade boost COVID-19 cases hit record levels - intensive care numbers key Charts; 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict, 21 day Bolli bands contract- neutral setup Lower 21 day Bolli band rejection and close above 0.7147 21 DMA was bullish Targets a test of the falling 0.7261 upper 21 day Bollinger band short term NY 0.7169 low and Asia's 0.7182 high initial support and resistance

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-17-2021"
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Market Update – December 17 – USD slips, Gold pops, BOJ no change

• USD (USDIndex 95.80) continues to cool post FED. Stocks sank lead by Tech (Nasdaq -2.47%, wiping out Wednesdays gains) & Yields fell. A weak set of PMI’s across the glode was off set by good US Claims numbers and Hot housing data. Sentiment remained depressed across Asian markets overnight, with Chinese tech stocks in particularly hit. GOLD rallied significantly.  The BOE surprise lifted GBP – but Johnson lost the bi-election (a seat the party have held for 200-yrs). BOJ – No changes maintains longer JGB outlook at 0% & Inflation target @ 2%.
• US Yields 10yr traded down significantly to 1.411%
• Equities – USA500 -41 (-0.87%) unable to hold the key 4700 – at 4668 – USA500.F trades at 4660. Big losers included #TSLA -5.03%, APPL -3.93% Abode -10%. gainers were Verizon +4.35%, PFE +4.17% & banks lead by WFC +2.78%  
• USOil – rallied again to $72.65 but has since retreated to $71.75
• Gold – BURST from range to close over $1800 ( from test of 46 day low on Wednesday at $1753) over $1805 today at $1808 currently.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1310 from 1.1225, USDJPY 114.10 from 114.25, Cable 1.3263 from 1.3170.  

Overnight – German Producer Prices (miss at 0.8% vs 1.4% & 3.8% prior) but Bundesbank sees German Inflation @ 3.6% for 2022 vs 1.8% in June) UK Retail Sales, better than expected 1.4% vs 0.8% & 1.1% last time)

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 21 ticks at 174.26, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are fractionally higher. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.5% and U. futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ still underperforming and down -0.2%. Wall Street closed with broad losses yesterday and sentiment remained depressed across Asian markets overnight, with Chinese tech stocks in particularly hit. This week’s round of central bank decisions confirmed that banks are moving out of crisis modes and that omicron won’t prevent a gradual withdrawal of support. In Europe the BoE’s rate hike in particular send a pretty clear signal and markets will continue to digest this week’s round of meetings today. The calendar has German Ifo readings, which are likely to look pretty dismal, if yesterday’s PMI reports are anything to go by.

Today –  Quad Witching; CBR Policy Announcements

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.36%) rRejection of 78.00 yesterday is follwed by more weakness today. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower & under 0 line, RSI 40 & falling.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our written permission.

from HF Analysis /295441/
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Travel: three cosy UK rural retreats for the winter

Enjoy spectacular views in comfort this winter at these three luxurious UK rural retreats, says Chris Carter

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Steen Jakobsen: reality has become outrageous

Merryn talks to Steen Jakobsen of Saxo Bank about his annual “outrageous predictions” – and how reality is proving a match for anything he can come up with.

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NZDUSD, H4 | Potential For Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.68524Pivot: 0.67781Support: 0.67343Preferred Case:Prices are approaching a pivot. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 0.67781 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 0.68524 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 0.67343 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-or-potential-for-bounce-17thdec"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 114.157Pivot: 113.566Support: 113.251Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 113.566 in line with 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st resistance at 114.157 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 113.251 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-for-bounce-17thdec"
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BTCUSD, H4 | Short-term Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 50880.12Pivot: 46949.92Support: 44666.16dvPreferred Case:Price is currently abiding to the descending trendline resistance, signifying overall bearish momentum. However, we can expect price to bounce from the pivot level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where there is a bullish divergence identified.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push further down to the 1st Support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-short-term-bullish-bounce-17thdec"
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AUDCHF, H4 | Potential bearish breakout

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.66554Pivot: 0.66108Support: 0.65402Preferred Case:Price is abiding to the triangle formation, price tried to breakout of the descending trendline resistance once but failed to do so. We can expect price to drop from further from the pivot level in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards the 1st Support in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %D line is near the resistance level.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push upwards towards 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audchf-h4-or-potential-bearish-breakout"
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USDCAD H4 I Potential Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.28382Pivot: 1.27319Support: 1.26796Preferred Case:With price approaching the graphical horizontal support which aligns with the support of the ichimoku cloud and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at our pivot of 1.27319, we are bias for a bounce up from there to 1st resistance at 1.28382 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, we may see price break pivot and ichimoku structure and drop to 1st support at 1.26796 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-h4-i-potential-bullish-bounce"
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EURUSD risks losing support on a dovish ECB surprise

As widely expected, the Fed doubled the pace of phasing out asset purchases to $30 billion/month. More important, however, was the change in FOMC members' forecasts of rate hikes, from one to three times in 2022. Three more increases are projected in 2023, and two more in 2024. The shift in forecasts once again indicates that the Fed's focus is shifting entirely to inflation: there is no longer a word about its temporary nature. The FOMC, with this trajectory of tightening policy, effectively turns a blind eye to the risks of the new Covid strain. It is hard to expect that with such a monetary setting, the dollar will not be able to strengthen in 2022, especially if the ECB is again cautious today, which will help widen the yield differential between short-term US and EU bonds.The collapse of the dollar and the positive reaction of risk assets despite the seemingly hawkish outcome of the meeting was probably caused by the peculiarities of positioning in the run-up of the FOMC decision: Nomura wrote that the 10-day average ratio of put options to call options on CBOE reached its maximum level in 13 months, i.e. investors heavily hedged equity markets sell-off in the worst-case scenario of the FOMC meeting (even more aggressive policy tightening), but as it was avoided, massive unwinding of hedging positions followed, allowing risk assets to rebound. The same drivers were at the heart of the dollar's collapse - an increase and then a reduction in positions that hedged unfavorable outcomes of the Fed meeting for the markets.The Bank of England, in its typical manner, went against market expectations and raised the rate today from 0.1% to 0.25%, which caused the growth of GBPUSD by 0.8% to 1.335. From a technical point of view, the currency pair bounced off the lower parallel of the bearish channel:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-risks-losing-support-on-a-dovish-ecb-surprise"
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Lots for markets to absorb

Treasuries are mixed with shorter dated coupons rallying while the longer maturities are selling off as some of the recent flatten trend is unwound. There is a lot for the market to absorb in the wake of the hawkish FOMC yesterday, the BoE hike today and the surge in European rates, and the various data. EURUSD rallied to a more than 2-week highs of 1.1359 from 1.1315 following the ECB announcement, which confirmed the beginning of thee end for asset purchases. Gilt yields popped higher, which helped the euro, as Treasury yields remain steady. Following the Fed taper, and prospects for three rate hikes next year, along with the BoE and Norges Bank rate hikes earlier this morning, the ECB continues to look like it is behind the curve on the removal of accommodation front.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribited without our written permission.

from HF Analysis /295280/
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Market Spotlight: Trading The December BOE Meeting

Tough Call For BOEToday’s Bank of England meeting is drawing a great deal of attention and has the potential to cause significant price action swings in GBP-based pairs and UK asset prices. On the back of the BOE surprising the market when it failed to lift rates in November and with the emergence of omicron as a fresh threat in the UK, there is a great deal of uncertainty and speculation around how the bank will act.On the one hand, with inflation hitting 5%, levels not seen for a decade, there is a huge urgency to relieve price pressure on consumers. On the other hand, in light of the fresh restrictions around omicron, the huge blow this will strike to the economy and the risk of further restrictions in the near future, the BOE is no doubt hesitant to tighten liquidity conditions for consumers and businesses alike.If the BOE does push ahead and hike today, this will be a firm boost for GBP near term and will restore some of Bailey’s credibility following his “unreliable boyfriend” behaviour in November. On the other hand, if the BOE holds off, citing uncertainty around omicron, this will no doubt be met with a wave of GBP selling.Technical ViewsGBPUSD – Bullish scenarioWith USD on the backfoot today, a hawkish BOE meeting would no doubt fuel a breakout here. Plenty of bullish divergence in momentum studies recently suggesting reversal risks, along with the retail long position reducing further as GBO points higher. Bulls can look for a break of 1.3349 targeting 1.3461 initially and the channel top/1.3676 thereafter.GBPAUD – Bearish scenarioIf GBP bulls are lift empty handed today, particularly if the BOE sounds the alarm bells over omicron, this will weigh on GBP sharply. Near term, this GBP weakness is likely to create fresh downside opportunities in GBPAUD with a break of the 1.8438 level ( bear channel retest, bull trend line break) opening the way for a test of 1.8316 and 1.8132 thereafter.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-the-december-boe-meeting"
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