BTCUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance:Pivot:Support:Preferred Case:Price broke out of the descending trendline resistance, signifying a potential bullish momentum. We can expect price to bounce up from the pivot level in line with graphical overlap support, 161.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% projection towards 1st Resistance in line with previous swing high and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is at the support level.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push down to the 1st Support level in line with the horizontal support level.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-bounce"
via IFTTT

Dollar Down, But Still in Holiday-thinned Trading

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-down-but-still-in-holidaythinned-trading-2726512
via IFTTT

Why Do Crude Oil Prices Rise?

Oil prices have rebounded this week, as concerns over the impact of the highly contagious omicron variant on the global economy eased, preliminary data showing the impact of the virus was milder than the Delta variant. However, investors remain cautious amid soaring infection cases.

Oil prices rose today amid expectations that :

• The US will not experience a significant economic shutdown due to the omicron surge.
• Given soaring natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, oil is likely to remain positive. Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices surged this week, despite weak Asian demand, upside risks in the European gas market remain the main driver driving price movements.
• In addition, the increase in natural gas is also due to a colder US winter. Atmospheric G2 said today that sub-normal temperatures are expected in the western and central North US from January 1-5, and below-normal temperatures in the central US will last through January 10.
• Also, comments from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak supported crude oil prices. He said that global demand for crude would continue to recover due to consumption growth which countries had to learn to coexist with the virus. However, he added that the price of oil in 2022 may hover around $75 per barrel with a possible fluctuation of around 10% on both sides.
• Crude oil prices also received support from reduced supplies from Libya , as militias blocked the flow of crude from Libya’s Sharara oil field to ports in Zawiya and Mellitah.
• Iranian crude exports are unlikely to return to the market anytime soon. The senior US official said that Iran had not shown seriousness in recent talks to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal, and the US was preparing for a scenario in which restoring the deal would not be possible.
• An EIA report last week showed US crude inventories on Dec. 17 were -7.9% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ended December 17 fell -0.9% w/w to 11.6 million bpd, which was -1.5 million bpd (-11.5%) below the February-2020 record high of 13, 1 million bpd.
• Operating US oil and gas rigs rose to their highest level since April 2020 in the past week, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes . The overall number now stands at 586, signaling an increase in output in the coming months.

USOil, D1

USOil is trading at $75.15 while UKOil is at $78.62 at the time of writing this article. From the USOil curve above, the decline was recorded at ±25% from the annual peak of $83.77 to the support level. However the price has returned the decline to the level of 61.8%FR around $75.50. The 200 EMA is still providing support to the upside, although the gains are no longer significant after the 4 day rally, although to reach $78.53 it is still possible as seen from the RSI line above the 50 level and OSMA on the buy side, although the MACD line is not yet at above the neutral line. Prices are likely to be choppy in the next few days. The closest price support is the recently broken resistance at $73.08 a move below this level is likely to consolidate. However, as long as this level holds, the bullish outlook is still possible, although limited to the projections of FE100% & FE138.2%.

Click here to access the Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our written permission.

from HF Analysis /297792/
via IFTTT

Market Update – December 28 – Risk-on sentiment continues

• It was another record setting performance for the USA500. It was its 69th new high of the year, which itself is the second best on record. Easing in Omicron fears and signs of strong holiday sales helped underpin the USA500‘s 1.38% jump to 4791. All 11 S&P sectors are higher, with gains paced by technology and energy. Travel stocks remain heavy though have recovered from their worst levels early in the session as Omicron concerns have been allayed some.
• USD (USDIndex 96.04).
• US Yields 10yr finished at 1.472%, below the 1.50% level since December 9. Treasuries were mixed with the long end outperforming in a flattening trade, while the front end was pressured by supply. A cautious tone could prevail near term to keep a bid in bonds, even as 2022 is expected to see 2, if not 3 quarter point rate hikes.
• Equities – Nikkei jumped 1.4% after stronger than expected production numbers. The ASX lifted 0.4%. The USA100 surged 1.39%, while the USA30 rallied 0.98% and are just shy of their historic peaks from November.
• USOil – extended gains to 75.82, after surging more than 2% to their highest in a month a day before.
• Gold – rise to $1,815
• FX markets – Yen lost ground as traders stayed in riskier assets, USDJPY lifted to 114.89, EURUSD 1.1326, Cable trades at 1.3434.

Today – Today’s calendar includes the aforementioned 5-year auction, along with data on home prices with the October S&P/Case Shiller report and the FHFA data. The December Richmond Fed index is also due.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.46%) Retests 0.6815, sustaining 1-month highs. However sentiment remains neutral as fast MAs flattened while RSI and  MACD signal line & histogram are settled at neutral zone.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our written permission.

from HF Analysis /297779/
via IFTTT

CADJPY, H4 | Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.1344Pivot: 1.13197Support: 1.13029Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1.13197 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1.1344 in line with 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci retracement. Ichimoku clouds are also depicting strong bullish momentum.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 1.13029 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cadjpy-h4-or-bullish-momentum"
via IFTTT

DJI, H4 | Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.1344Pivot: 1.13197Support: 1.13029Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1.13197 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1.1344 in line with 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci retracement. Ichimoku clouds are also depicting strong bullish momentum.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 1.13029 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dji-h4-or-bullish-momentum"
via IFTTT

EURUSD, H4 | Bullish momentum

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels: Resistance: 1.1344Pivot: 1.13197Support: 1.13029Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1.13197 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1.1344 in line with 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci retracement. Ichimoku clouds are also depicting strong bullish momentum.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 1.13029 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-or-bullish-momentum"
via IFTTT

USDJPY, H4 | Bullish Momentum

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 115.468Pivot: 114.890Support: 114.529Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 114.890 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 161.8% FIbonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 115.468 in line with 200% Fibonacci projection and graphical swing high. Our bullish bias is further support by prices trading above ichimoku clouds and MA 18.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 114.529 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-bullish-momentum28"
via IFTTT

BTCUSD, H4 | Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 51913.04Pivot: 49304.35Support: 48017.39Preferred Case:Price broke out of the descending trendline resistance signifying a bullish momentum. Price should push further up if it closes above the pivot level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and push towards 1st Resistance in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by the Ichimoku Cloud where the price is holding above it.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop down from the pivot level to 1st Support in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-bullish-momentum28"
via IFTTT

AUDUSD, H4 | Short-term Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.72894Pivot: 0.72498Support: 0.71817Preferred Case:Price is reacting in an ascending channel, signifying bullish momentum. However, price is currently at a resistance, we can expect price to drop from pivot level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci Extension towards 1st Support in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is at the resistance level.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push higher to 1st Resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-short-term-bearish-drop28"
via IFTTT

The New Year Beckons – US

The year 2021 has basically wrapped up. Though under the clouds of Omicron, inflation, and reduced central bank accommodation, the extreme fears from a few weeks ago have faded. That provided an optimistic setting for a Santa Claus rally into the Christmas weekend. Global data has generally reflected a solid pick up in Q4 growth, even if dented somewhat by the variant. Inflation remains a risk significant risk but the FOMC and other central banks are addressing it and bond markets are giving policymakers the benefit of the doubt. There is little this week to distract from cautious merry making into 2022.

Most of the key US data reports were released ahead of the holidays and they have reflected a substantial jump in Q4 growth, with GDP estimated accelerating to a 7.0% clip from teh this month’s critical reports were released in the advance of the holidays, allowing a substantial fine-tuning of market estimates on Wednesday and Thursday before a light report week. This week’s slew of data largely narrowed growth prospects around existing expectations. The GDP growth rate in Q4 is anticipated at 7%, triple the 2.3% pace in Q3 clip. However, inflation prospects were also boosted slightly. Robust growth and near 40-year highs on CPI made the FOMC’s decision to accelerate the taper a relatively easy call.

Now comes the hard part, determining the timing and the pace of liftoff and tightening. Currently the markets are set for liftoff in May or June, with a quarter point hike, and possibly on or two on the year.

The thin data slate in the abbreviated week contains few top-tier releases. The Treasury’s $169 bln in shorter dated coupon auctions will be an interesting test of investor demand given several contradictory forces. The demand for the safety of Treasuries and their higher yields, along with further supply cuts will help cap yields. But the risks of persistent inflation, the Fed’s tapering and eventual rate hikes will push rates higher. As to these auctions, the total volume was cut by $7 bln from last month as the pandemic related borrowing needs have declined substantially. The 2-year closed 2.8 bps cheaper on Thursday at 0.745%. A stop there would be the highest since the 1.188% from February 25, 2020. The 5-year was up 2.6 bps at 1.270%. The 7-year was 3 bps higher at 1.425%. It is not clear that those rates will be attractive enough to attract strong demand, especially amid thin holiday conditions.

The US Dollar has remained range bound at the start of another holiday shortened week, with the USDIndex currently at 96.18. London, Canada, Australia and Hong Kong were among the markets still closed for the extended Christmas holiday weekend. Incoming data last Thursday was mixed, which saw jobless claims sit near trend lows, while personal income and consumption were in-line with forecasts. Durable orders beat expectations, though a large new home sales downward revision was not expected. The US was closed on Friday in observance of Christmas.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our written permission.

from HF Analysis /297529/
via IFTTT

Market Update – December 27

Stock markets were narrowly mixed across Asia in cautious trade, with Australia and Hong Kong among the markets still closed for the extended holiday weekend. In Europe, the UK is still on holiday and in North-America Canada will remain shut today.

• USD (USDIndex 96.20) steady within 96-96-25 area. US stocks sustain gains in contrast to Asia stocks which corrected lower despite further promises of support for the economy from officials in Beijing. Yields also rose; USOil & Gold under refresh pressure.
• Japan retail sales came in stronger than anticipated – the government last week announced more stimulus measures that also include a direct handout to families, which is boosting the chances of a consumption led recovery, although Omicron could still derail that scenario.
• US Yields 10yr has corrected -1.7 bp to 1.48%, as US Treasuries have found buyers.
• Equities – USA500 settled at 4730 (0.5% above key 4700), NASDAQ at 16344, USA30 at 35950, GER30 future is down -0.3%, Nikkei corrected -0.37%.
• USOil – reversed from $73.58, to 72.34, after airlines called off thousands of flights over the Christmas holidays amid surging COVID-19 cases, though Brent crude gained support from hopes that the Omicron variant will have limited impact on global demand. The contract did not trade on Friday because of the US market holiday. 
• Gold – steady above $1,805 as weaker US yields counter firmer Dollar.
• FX markets – Yen struggled, and USDJPY lifted to 114.68, EURUSD 1.1317, Cable trades at 1.3400.

Today – The data calendar is also pretty empty on both sides of the Atlantic, which will leave investors mulling virus developments and central bank outlooks, with early trading suggesting a cautious backdrop and limited moves.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.60%) Breached 1.5692, breaking the 20- and 50-hours SMA, which have been bullishly. MACD signal line & histogram turn positive. RSI 61.73 and rising.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our written permission.

from HF Analysis /297492/
via IFTTT

2021 was full of contradictions, so what should you invest in for 2022?

Inflation has risen – so why haven’t bond yields taken off? And is the equity market still the only game in town – or are investors deluded? John Stepek asks the experts their views on what’s been a very weird year

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604266/what-to-invest-in-for-2022
via IFTTT

The globally-focused investment trusts to buy for great returns

The bullish market outlook means investors should opt for investment trusts targeting the world’s great companies, says Max King. Here, he picks some of his current favourites.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/604259/the-globally-focused-investment-trusts-to-buy-for-great
via IFTTT