USDCAD, H4 I Potential for a drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.28328Pivot: 1.27628Support: 1.26388Preferred Case:With price moving below the ichimoku cloud and respecting the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 1.27628 which is in line with horizontal overlap resistance,38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to 1st support at 1.26388, which is in line with horizontal swing low support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise up to our 1st resistance at 1.28328, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-h4-i-potential-for-a-drop"
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Dollar Down, but Hits One-Month High Against Yen Over Rate Hike Bets

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Dollar hits one-month high vs yen as Fed rate bets lift U.S. yields

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/dollar-hits-onemonth-high-vs-yen-as-fed-rate-bets-lift-us-yields-2729444
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NZDUSD, H4 | Bearish Dip!

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.68852Pivot: 0.6859Support: 0.68135Preferred Case:Prices have reached a strong resistance level and are consolidating in a double top. We see the potential for a short pullback from our Pivot at 0.6859 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 0.68135 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. RSI is at levels where dips previously happened.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-or-bearish-dip"
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EURUSD, 4H I Potential For A Drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.13862Pivot: 1.13593Support: 1.12985Preferred Case:Price is reacting below our pivot level at 1.13593 which is in line with horizontal overlap resistance. Price can potentially drop to 1st support at 1.12985, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal swing low support. This is further supported by how price is likely to reverse off the Stochastic resistance level.Alternative Scenario:Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise up to our 1st resistance at 1.13862, which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and horizontal swing high resistance .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-4h-i-potential-for-a-drop"
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USDJPY, H4 | Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 115.456Pivot: 115.006Support: 114.702Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and consolidating in a bullish channel. We see the potential for further bullish continuation from our Pivot at 115.006 in line with 78.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 115.456 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement, 200% Fibonacci Projection and 100% Fibonacci retracement. Ichimoku clouds are showing strong bullish momentum.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 114.702 which is a graphical swing low and also in line with parallel channel.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-bullish-momentum3"
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Market Update – January 3 – Front foot for the new year

Welcome to 2022, Evergrande back in the headlines, having defaulted , shares have been suspended, (they fell 90% in 2021) awaiting “inside information”. TESLA beat delivery targets & more woes for the TRY as Inflation hits 19-year highs.

The 2021 close – S&P500 (+27%) , USDIndex +6.3%, 10-yr yields broke 1.5%, Oil & Gas (50% & 48% respectively, Coffee was the best  performing commodity +70%, Gold lost –4%). European Banks gained  +34%, US Treasuries lost -3% and the Chinese Tech & Property sector collapsed. Inflation (US 6.8% EZ 4.9%, UK 5.1% & Japan 0.1%), Energy & Food costs rallied. Crypto’s volatile & surged (BTC +60%), Meme Stocks monstrously volatile (GameStop +700% – as high as +2,500%) & AMC +1200% (up 3200% at one point). NFT’s arrived (Market Cap 2021 – $22Billion+ vs just $100 million in 2020)

• USD (USDIndex 95.90) recovered from 2021 close at 95.50 zone. US stocks dipped into year end,  & Yields also slipped. USOil & Gold both held on to healthy gains.
• US Yields 10 yr traded to 1.51%  
• Equities – USA500 -12.55 (-0.26%) at 4766   NASDAQ -0.61%,  
• USOil – slipped from $76.00 but held onto $75.00 ahead of OPEC+ meeting tomorrow.
• Gold – spiked to $1831 on the weaker USD, and holds at 1825
• Bitcoin down to 47k
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1340, USDJPY holds over 115.00 & Cable holds over 1.3500.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -11 ticks, US futures are underperforming, while stock futures are higher in Europe and the US. Large parts of Asia were still on holiday today and in Europe, the U.K. remains shut for the extended New Year holiday. The calendar focuses on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, which are not expected to bring major revisions and confirm that virus developments have slowed the pace of expansion.

Today – Final Manu PMI’s from EZ – UK, US & Canada remained closed for New-Year 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (-0.37%) Rejected rally to 0.7200 yesterday having topped at 0.7180, trades down to 0.7150 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower and now below 0 line. RSI 40.62 and falling, H1 ATR 0.0007 Daily ATR 0.0052.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our written permission.

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Dollar Up, Trade Remains Thin as Key Markets Remain Closed

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-up-trade-remains-thin-as-key-markets-remain-closed-2728612
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Factbox-Sudan's Abdalla Hamdok

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Value stocks: when cheaper isn’t cheap enough

Value stocks will probably beat growth stocks in the years ahead, but that won’t necessarily mean high returns, says Cris Sholto Heaton

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/value-investing/604278/value-stocks-when-cheaper-isnt-cheap-enough
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The half-full glass: four big economic events that could go right in 2022

After a year in which many people’s positive hopes were dashed by reality, John Stepek looks forward to 2022 with four scenarios that could go right next year.

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Molten Ventures: invest in digital technology with this venture capitalist

Molten Ventures offers investors access to fast-growing unlisted companies across Europe

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604267/molten-ventures-invest-in-digital-technology-with
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Five unexpected events that could shock the markets in 2022

Forget Covid-19 – it’s the unexpected twists that will rattle markets in 2022, says Matthew Lynn. Here are five possibilities

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Events to Look Out for Next Week

Happy Holidays from everyone at HF Markets. We hope your holidays will be filled with joy and laughter through the New Year.

Omicron increasingly dominates virus developments globally, and while it seems the new variant is less likely to lead to hospitalisations than Delta, there is still concern that a huge spike in the number of those forced into quarantine will hit essential services in coming weeks. Still, on the whole the reaction to the latest wave has been more nuanced and the feel is increasingly that the worst is behind us. That backs expectations that the recovery will be dented, but not derailed, which means central bank policies will only go in one direction next year.There is little this week to distract from cautious merry making, after which attention will turn to assessing current conditions and the outlook for 2022.

Monday – 03 January 2022

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• Holiday – New Year’s Day for UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Japan
• Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:55) – Eurozone’s & Germany’s December Manufacturing PMIs are expected to remain unchanged at 58 and 57.9 respectively.

Tuesday – 04 January 2022

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• Retail Sales & Unemployment (EUR, GMT 07:00 & 08:55) – Expectations  for Germany Retail sales are negative as further decline is seen at -0.5% for November. Unemployment could continue to decline with un employment change at -15K in December.
• OPEC Meeting – OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) planned to decide whether it will add another 400k bpd of production to global supply.
• Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 09:30) – December’s Services PMIs in UK are expected to steady at 57.6.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM index is expected to dip to 60.5 from 61.1 in November, compared to an 18-year high of 64.7 in March, an 11-year low of 41.5 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Wednesday – 05 January 2022

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• Composite Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:55-09:00) – Eurozone’s & Germany’s  Composite December PMIs seen unchanged at 53.4 and 50 respectively. Eurozone PMI at 9 month low as covid measures hit the services industry. In Germany the respective PMI actually signal a contraction. Clearly, renewed pressures on tourism and hospitality sectors are dampening the short-term outlook, but be expect this to be a temporary dent, rather than an end to the recovery. The fact that there were some signs of easing constraints in supply chains is also encouraging.
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 438k in the number of employed people in December, compared to the 534k reading seen in November.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes should provide further guidance for 2022.

Thursday – 06 January 2022

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• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The prelim. German HICP inflation for December is anticipated to slow down to 5.6% y/y from 6.0% y/y.
• ISM Services PMI  (USD, GMT 15:00) – A decline from December spike to 69.1 is expected with the data slipping to 67.0.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 66.0 from an all-time high 69.1 in November, and a prior all-time high of 66.7 in October. Producer sentiment has been mixed thus far in December after robust November levels, with a disappointing Philly Fed report despite robust Empire State data.

Friday – 07 January 2022

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• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales should contract to -0.5% m/m in November, leaving the headline at 5.6% y/y. The three months trend rate turned negative however, and with virus restrictions being tightened again in parts of the Eurozone, the risk of further pressure on retailers is rising.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 440,000 in December nonfarm payroll, after gains of 210k in November.  The jobless rate should hold steady at 4.2% for a second month, down from 4.6% in October. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.4%, after gains of 0.3% in November and 0.4% in October, while the y/y wage gain should ease to 4.2% from 4.8% due to a hard comparison. In the last expansion we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020, and the ensuing strength in wage gains that has allowed continued robust y/y increases. We expect a robust payroll trajectory into the end of 2021 thanks to the last two stimulus packages and vaccines.
• Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The Canada’s employment rose 153.7k in November, much better than expected, following the 31.2k rise in October. The jobless rate dove to 6.0% from 6.7%.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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