​AUDUSD, H4 I Potential Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.72768 Pivot: 0.71841Support: 0.70908Preferred Case:With price approaching the support of the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.72768 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement from pivot at 0.71841, which is in line with horizontal overlap support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 0.70908, which coincides with horizontal overlap support and 61.8%

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-i-potential-bullish-bounce"
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BTCUSD, H4 | Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 45617.99Pivot:44122.38Support: 41839.61Preferred Case:Prices are on strong bearish momentum and abiding to our daily descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 44122.38 when it retests in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 41839.61 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by Ichimoku clouds forecasting strong bearish momentum.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 45617.99 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-bearish-continuation6"
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Bitcoin, ether near multi-month lows following hawkish Fed minutes

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-ether-near-multimonth-lows-following-hawkish-fed-minutes-2731797
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Dollar Up, Investors Digest Hawkish Fed Minutes

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-up-investors-digest-hawkish-fed-minutes-2731786
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Dollar near five-year high to yen as U.S. yields surge on hawkish Fed

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/dollar-near-fiveyear-high-to-yen-as-us-yields-surge-on-hawkish-fed-2731743
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USDJPY, H4 | Bearish Dip

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 117.388Pivot: 116.359Support: 117.388Preferred Case:Prices are at our Pivot at 116.359 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences, we see the potential for a dip towards our 1st support at 115.383 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI are at levels where dips previous occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 117.388 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-bearish-dip"
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Daily Market Outlook, January 5, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, January 5, 2022 Overnight Headlines North Korea Fired What Could Be A Ballistic Missile – Japan Coast Guard ANZ Australian Job Vacancies Slips 5.5% As Omicron Hurts Sentiment New Zealand Average Home Price Exceeds NZ$1 Million For First Time Japan, U.S. Ministers To Hold 'Two-Plus-Two' Talks On Friday January 7th Fed’s Neel Kashkari Now Sees Two 2022 Rate Rises Amid Inflation Surge Yen Wallows As Omicron Fears Subside And Fed Rate Hikes Loom Goldman Strategists Bet On Tourism-Linked Currencies In Recovery Bitcoin Gains May Be Limited In January, Altcoins Outperform - Analysts Oil Falls As Surging U.S. Fuel Stockpiles Raise Demand Concerns Barclays Maintains Oil Price Forecasts For 2022 At $80/BBL For Brent Treasury Yield Curve Steepens On Bet Fed Sticks To Hawkish Path Asian Shares Slip As Rising U.S. Yields Hit Technology Firms Lower China Huarong Tumbles As Trading Resumes After Nine-Month Halt China Evergrande To Hold Meeting With Bondholders On January 7-10 Chip Delivery Times Are On The Rise Again, Shortages Continue Allegiant Air Close To Ordering 50 Boeing 737 MAX JetsThe Day Ahead Market risk tone turned cautious overnight, with mixed equity market performances in the Asia-Pacific region. The main Japanese index ended slightly higher, but there were lower outcomes in China reflecting weaker tech stocks. Latest Covid figures show a record rise of 2.5 million new cases globally, although symptoms appear to be less severe than the delta variant. In the UK, PM Johnson said there was a “good chance” no further Covid restrictions will need to be imposed in England despite soaring Omicron cases. The final readings of the Eurozone December services PMI are expected to confirm the preliminary ‘flash’ estimate showing a sizeable fall to 53.3 from 55.9 in November. At above 50, that still represents expansion in services activity but at the slowest pace since April amid rising Covid infection rates. Price pressures eased slightly but remained elevated. The survey indicates that German services activity was particularly hard hit, while France held up better. The first estimates for Italian and Spanish services PMI will be released and are expected to show softer pace of growth. In the US, the December ADP employment report will provide an early indication of Friday’s official payrolls data. There is some uncertainty about the possible impact of Omicron, but labour market conditions are expected to have remained strong. Look for a 500k rise in ADP private sector jobs which would add confidence to our central forecast for a bigger rise in official payrolls than in November which rose by just 210k. The minutes of the 14-15 December FOMC meeting will be released this evening. That was the meeting when the pace of tapering of asset purchases was accelerated and the word ‘transitory’ to describe inflation was dropped. The updated ‘dot plot’ also showed policymakers expecting three interest rate rises in 2022 with further increases forecast for subsequent years. Prospects for higher UK interest rates and indications that there will likely be no further Covid restrictions in England saw GBP above 1.35 against the US dollar. Gilt yields also shifted higher, with the 10-year yield rising to 1.085%. Brent crude oil, meanwhile, rose above $80 a barrel as OPEC+ announced a modest rise in output.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )EUR/USD: 1.1095-00 (391M), 1.1190-00 (723M) 1.1285-90 (609M), 1.1300-10 (365M), 1.1340-50 (500M) 1.1400 (373M)USD/JPY: 113.45 (560M), 113.55 (650M), 113.79-80 (384M) 116.50 (370M)USD/CAD: 1.2815-25 (355M), 1.2950 (300M)AUD/USD: 0.7200-10 (424M), 0.7280-85 (730M) 0.7300 (423M), 0.7320 (634M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above Edges higher after early dip EUR/USD opened -0.12% at 1.1286 after EUR/JPY buying offset higher US yields It dipped to 1.1277 before finding bids and moving higher Heading into the afternoon it is near the session high at 1.1294 Support at a trend line at 1.1256 and break would increase downward pressure Resistance is at 1.1386 where the 55-day MA converges with Friday's high EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode with a bearish bias Market may wait for Friday's US job numbers to establish clear directionGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. GBP/USD holds above 1.35 after hitting 8 – week top Tuesday Cable remains above 1.3500 after scaling eight-week peak of 1.3556 Tuesday Ascent to 1.3556 influenced by "risk on" vibe and U.S. ISM miss. Risk appetite has been healthy since Dec 20 (1.3175 was cable low that day) 100-day moving average helped define Tuesday's high (1.3550 was Dec 31 top) IMM gross GBP shorts continued to dwarf gross GBP longs in week ended Dec 28 UK PM Johnson resists another lockdownUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 112.50 Bearish below Soft with risk in Asia, but trends higher Off 0.15% in a low key session - trades toward base of a 115.90-116.24 range Soft markets, E-mini S&P -0.25%, Nikkei flat and UST yields a touch softer USD/JPY soars as higher US yields become 2022 conviction trade Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages, plus the Tenkan line climb Momentum studies are net positive - overall a bullish trending setup Targets a test of the 118.60/66 Jan 2017 and Dec 2016 highs longer term Close below 115.52 November and 2021 high needed to undermine topside bias NY 115.96 low and Europe's 116.35 high initial support, resistanceAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above Consolidates as risk assets slip in Asia AUD/USD opened +0.65% at 0.7238 after getting a boost from AUD/JPY demand After trading 0.7243 it came under slight pressure during the Asian morning It fell to 0.7231 when AXJ equity index fell 0.80% and E-minis slipped 0.26% Bids emerged and AUD/USD is around 0.7235 into the afternoon session Support at 21-day MA at 0.7193 and close below shifts pressure to downside Resistance is at the 100-day MA at 0.7287 and break targets 61.8 at 0.7341 Moves in equities and AUD/JPY flows key for short-term direction

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-5-2022"
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Dollar Edges Lower; Yen Pressured by Rising Yields

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-edges-lower-yen-pressured-by-rising-yields-2730734
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Market Update – January 5 – Yields higher again, FED Minutes in focus

Treasuries continued under pressure as yields moved up supporting USD, Equities were mixed; Financials and Automaker’s (EV) rallied, US data (Jolts, & ISM Manu PMI’s) missed expectations, OPCEC+ delivered the production increase for February. Goldmans talked of $100k Bitcoin. US reported 1 million daily COVID cases, Israel says 4th dose effective at increasing antibodies and France discovers new variant with 46 mutations.

• USD (USDIndex 96.30) holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the YEN in particular. US stocks (Dow & S&P) hit new all-time highs but Nasdaq lost -1.33%.
• US Yields 10 yr rocked up to close at 1.668% and trades at 1.64% now   
• Equities – USA500 -3 (+0.06%) at 4793  Ford (new 20-yr high) +11.67%, GM +7.47% TSLA -4.18%, USA500 FUTS now 4780.     
• USOil – spiked over $77.00 trades at  $76.75 now post OPEC+ and a big drawdown in private inventories –
• Gold – holds over $1800 significantly at 1813 now.
• Bitcoin holds over 45,000, trades at 46,400 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD recovered back to 1.1300, USDJPY new-5-year high at  116.30 now 116.00, Cable back over 1.3500 at 1.3530.

Overnight – Tech stock in particular were under pressure in Asia from a stronger USD and higher US yields.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming, as stock markets started to correct from recent highs. Travel and tourism shares boosted indexes yesterday, but market sentiment started to turn overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.2%.

Today – EZ & US Composite/Services PMI (Final), US ADP, FOMC minutes

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.33%) Formed a base at 82.85 yesterday rallied on risk-on mood to 83.50  MAs aligned higher  MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 59 & rising,  H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.76.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our written permission.

from HF Analysis /299549/
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Dollar Down, Yen at Five-Year Low as Fed Interest Rate Hikes Loom

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Yen wallows as Omicron fears subside and rate hikes loom

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/yen-wallows-as-omicron-fears-subside-and-rate-hikes-loom-2730607
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BTCUSD, H4 | Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 51870.13Pivot:45589.14Support: 43962.81Preferred Case:Price broke out of the descending trendline resistance, signifying a bullish momentum. We can expect price to bounce from the pivot level in line with 100% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Resistance in line with 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is abiding to the ascending trendline support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push further down to 1st Support in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-bullish-momentum4"
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EURAUD, H4 | Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance:1.57477Pivot: 1.57094Support: 1.56246Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our bearish trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 1.57094 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 1.56246 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by Ichmoku clouds showing bearish momentum and also RSI at levels where dips previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 1.57477 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/euraud-h4-or-bearish-drop"
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NZDUSD, H4 | Bullish Momentum!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.68223Pivot: 0.67888Support: 0.67692Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 0.6788 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 0.68223 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Ichimoku clouds are showing strong bullish momentum.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 0.67692 at 0.67692 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci Projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-or-bullish-momentum"
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