Market Spotlight: USDJPY & US Retail Sales

US Data In Focus AgainThe final tier-one data of the week is due over today’s US sessions with US Retail Sales for December due. Following the lacklustre response to stronger-than-expected CPI for December, it seems that the odds are stacked against a bullish reversal in USD. With this in mind, should data print at or below consensus today, we are likely to seen an acceleration in USD selling, further clearing out the order books. While this move might well prove to be a short term correction lower, for now the momentum is with sellers, so we go with the flow.Where to Trade US December Retail Sales?USDJPYReports that the BOJ have started discussing the logistics of rate hikes has caught the market offside a little, sparking some JPY bullishness. Given the current USD weakness, this makes USDJPY a strong candidate for further sales should USD move lower from today’s data. The break of the local trend line and the 114.70 level puts the focus firmly on a move down to the 112.72 level next, allowing bears to stay short while price holds below 114.70.

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FOMO Friday: GBPUSD Breaks Out

GBP Beats The BunchSo another week comes to an end, and already we’re deep into the middle of January. Times flies when you’re chasing pips! Chatting with traders this week, it seems the big move that most have bene focused on is the rally in GBP. In terms of specific trades, the breakout in GBPUSD seems to be capturing the most attention; So whether its congratulations for catching the move, commiserations for being on the wrong side of it, or simply kicking yourself for missing it, let’s take a look at what caused the move.What Caused The Move?UK Optimism In BloomOn the GBP side of the equation, the main factor currently driving bullish sentiment is the passing of omicron risks. With infections falling and lots of reports claiming the omicron outbreak has peaked, there is a great sense of relief among GBP traders. With the UK having avoided going back into full lockdown and with many optimistic reports projecting that the pandemic might be in its final stages with omicron, traders are looking ahead to the rest of the year. The key focus is now once again on BOE tightening expectations, with markets looking for another hike as soon as next month should data continue to reflect strength in the economy. The latest data released today shows that the UK economy grew to pre-pandemic levels following a 09% expansion in November. Given that just ahead of Christmas in the UK, there was a huge amount of trepidation regarding the likelihood of a UK lockdowns in Q1, this sudden shift in narrative has created explosive moves across the GBP bloc.USD Positioning Clear OutFocusing on the US Dollar then, it’s been a very different story with the greenback correcting against the broader bull trend, to trade lower across the week. The reason for the move is likely a function of the elevated bullish positioning in USD which, on the back of a mixed jobs report last week, has started to see some recalibration. Indeed, while inflation figures came out above forecast yet again this week (December CPI), it seems that the data was not deemed reason enough to continue buying USD here, allowing for some correction and clearing of order books. For now, the market is still looking for a March rate hike. However, if this view shifts in the coming month or so, the USD correction might grow deeper. So, that the fundamental backdrop, let’s take a look now at the technical landscape.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe rally in GBPUSD this week has seen price breaking out above the bear channel and above the resistance region around 1.3676. This is a key technical break for the pair and, with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on further upside. While price holds above 1.3676 and the broken bear channel top, the focus is on a break of 1.38 next, targeting 1.40 above.

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How to be better at selling stocks

There is plenty of advice around about buying stocks, but not so much about when you should sell. John Stepek explains the two key things to know about selling stocks.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/604339/when-to-sell-stocks
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Investment Bank Outlook 14-01-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightThe threat of tighter financial conditions continues to weigh on investor sentiment. FOMC Vice Chair, Lael Brainard, and Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, whom are normally considered doves by the market turned hawkish in suggesting a March rate hike is a possibility. While China’s exports were strong, imports were on the soft side of consensus and weighed on commodity currencies in Asia. At the time of writing, almost all Asian bourses were trading lower and S&P500 futures slightly in the green. In G10 FX, the NOK and JPY were the outperformers; the former being supported by higher oil prices. The USD and the Antipodean currencies were the underperformers during the Asian session.CitiEuropean OpenAn early morning Reuters report that BoJ officials are beginning to debate how they can start telegraphing eventual rate hikes, citing unidentified sources sent JGB futures lower, with Aussie and US treasuries caught in the crossfire. JPY was unsurprisingly the strongest gainer, while DXY ticked lower. BoK hiked its key rate by 25bps to 1.25% as expected, with a notable comment from Governor Lee that that the recent rate hike effects need to be monitored. Chinese trade data came in mixed, while USDCNH was seem slumping slightly ahead of the Europe open. The US will see another flurry of data prints in the form of retail sales (13:30 GMT), IP (14:15 GMT) and most importantly, the University of Michigan Sentiment (15:00 GMT). Fedspeak is also on the horizon.CIBCFX FlowsThis Reuters story on BoJ raising rates even before reaching inflation target has put some pressure on $YEN, pair was sold over the Tokyo fix and then triggered string of stops below 114.00. Selling resumed when it bounced back in the 113.90s, macro names were said to have participated. To be honest, it is too early to pre-empt BoJ move and move is just excessive. Two prominent option strikes next week, 114.20 on Monday for about $1bn and 114.00 on Tuesday for $1.35bn.AUD¥ was sold and has put some pressure on the AUD$ throughout the morning. Some talk going around that one European account unwound short €AUD this morning. AUD$ got down to 0.7266, bids are suspected around 0.7250, probably from corporate accounts.$CAD rose to 1.2525 over the Aussie move, offers linked to strike stalled the upside, overall trading has been light and I do suspect there was a round of AUDCAD sales from near 0.9110. Decent $CAD option strikes roll off today, at 1.2525 for $1.47bn, at 1.2500 for $1.43bn and $1.28bn at 1.2485.

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Fintech: how to profit as technology transforms banking around the world

Financial technology – from apps to APIs to the cloud – is rapidly transforming financial services. This will spell doom for some incumbent firms, while others are set to win big. Matthew Partridge looks at how to find the winners.

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Why the uranium price is set to keep rising

Turmoil in Kazakhstan – the world's leading producer of uranium, has sent the uranium price up by more than 8% in a week. And that's not the end of it.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/energy/604333/why-the-uranium-price-is-set-to-keep-rising
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Russian stocks suffer as the world fears it will invade Ukraine

Despite a booming economy, Russian stocks look extraordinarily cheap – but if it invades Ukraine, the Russian stockmarket will become all but uninvestable.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/european-stockmarkets/604332/russian-stocks-suffer-as-the-world-fears-it
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Tech stocks teeter as US Treasury bond yields rise

The realisation that central banks are about to tighten their monetary policies caused a sell-off in the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock index and the biggest rise in US Treasury bond yields since 2019.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/tech-stocks/604331/tech-stocks-fall-as-us-treasury-bond-yields-rise
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Three solid assets to buy for a low interest-rate world

Professional investor Luke Hyde-Smith of the Waverton Real Assets Fund, highlights three alternative investments to diversify your portfolio.

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Crude stocks fall, USOIL surges

The US crude rally continued in the early part of the US session and reached as high as 82.36, a 2-month high. Weakness in the US Dollar was bullish for energy prices as the dollar index fell to a 2-month low Wednesday, after reports of US commercial crude inventories falling -4.6 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 7. Crude inventories were about -8% below the five-year average for the year, at 413.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 8 million barrels. Distillate rose by 2.5 million barrels. Propane/propylene fell -3.4 million barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories fell by -4.5 million barrels.

Crude oil prices received support amid comments from the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), who said crude demand dynamics were stronger than many market watchers expected, largely due to Omicron’s milder expectations.

Crude oil prices rose, although OPEC+ decided to raise output by 400,000 barrels per day in February. According to The Energy Aspect, only 130,000 barrels per day of additional OPEC+ crude will hit the market in January, and only 250,000 bpd will reach global markets in February as some countries such as Angola and Nigeria struggle to reach their production targets. In addition, December OPEC crude production rose only +90,000 barrels per day.

A further USOil increase is expected to catch up with the October 2021 price peak of 83.77. A strong break at 83.77 would bring oil prices higher for the price level of 90.00. As long as the resistance level persists, another drop must be seen before the consolidation is complete. The breaking of support 77.28 would return to the January 2022 opening price at 75.25.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The Crude Chronicles - Episode 119

Oil Traders Rebuild LongsThe latest CFTC COT institutional report shows that oil traders increased their net long positions last week by almost 20,000 contracts. This latest increase reflects the better sentiment taking hold in oil markets over the start of 2022 as prices continue to rebound off the December 2021 lows. Prices are now up by around 30% from those lows, with the market fast approaching a test of the 2021 highs. A combination of factors are leading oil higher here, including a better COVID outlook (fading omicron risks) and a weaker US Dollar.Omicron Risks FadingOn the COVID front, the passing of omicron risks has been a major lift for oil prices and risk markets in general. With the UK and US having avoided returning to full lockdown, as with many European and Asian countries also, the market has avoided a worst-case scenario in Q1. Additionally, the scrapping of travel restrictions in some countries (re-opening of borders, scaling back of COVID measures) has seen a huge surge in airline bookings, reigniting fuel demand from the aviation sector. Looking ahead, with many hopeful that omicron will represent the final stages of the pandemic, the outlook favours increased demand for oil as global travel picks up this year.Dollar FallingOn the Dollar front, the slump in USD over recent weeks has been highly beneficial for oil prices. On the face of it, the USD rally seems somewhat counter-intuitive given the hawkishness we’ve heard from the Fed and the strong data we’ve seen, fuelling hawkish market expectations. However, it seems the market has likely become carried away in terms of its hawkish expectations towards the Fed. With this in mind, the barrier for further USD rallying has been lifted and we are likely seeing some clearing out in positioning currently while prices and expectations realign.EIA Reports Further Crude DrawFinally, the EIA had further good news for crude bulls this week. The EIA reported that commercial US crude stores fell by almost 5 million barrels last week, a far deeper drawdown than the 2.1 million barrel decline forecast. This latest report again reflects the strengthening demand for oil, keeping prices supported near term.Technical ViewsCrude OilThe rally in oil prices off the December lows has seen the market breaking firmly back into the bullish channel, taking out several key levels along the way. Price is now fast approaching a test of the 83.75 level and, with both MACD and RSI bullish here, the focus is on a break of this level and a continuation towards the 90.85 level next. To the downside, key support sits at the 78.49 level, with the bull channel low sitting just beneath.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crude-chronicles-episode-119"
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USD/RUB Forecast: Potential Drop Ahead

Good day,USD/RUB has dropped and approached the uptrend. However, the asset is likely to drop even further, all the way till the supporting level of 73.35 or potentially rise till the level of 78.00, as well. So, it is worth observing what is going to happen next.The Euro broke the resistance at the level of 1.1380. The asset is about to head North. The European currency might jump and break the downtrend. After that, it should pull back to the broken trendlines and jump again. So, the Euro might undergo a nice correction soon.Euro might also choose another option and test the downtrend and upper boundary of inverted triangle. This would be a beautiful continuation of the downtrend. So, Euro’s future seems to be very interesting.Brent oil is quickly approaching a very strong resistance at the level of 86.70 away from which it might pull and drop till the level of 77.82.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdrub-forecast-potential-drop-ahead"
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AUDJPY – Short-term bullish outlook

AUDJPY, H4

Australia’s November retail figures continued to record higher, at 7.3%, above the 3.9% market forecast and above the 4.9% rise in October. It also holds the record for the fourth strongest retail figure since the data began being collected. Meanwhile Australia’s trade surplus in November declined to A$9.42 billion from 10.78 billion (revised from 11.22 billion) in October amid rising commodity prices.

As a result, the S&P/ASX 200 stock index rose 0.33% this morning, led by mining and energy stocks, while the Australian Dollar has strengthened this week against the US Dollar. After Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the Senate that failed to signal a rate hike as expected, the AUDUSD pair is now hitting a new nearly two-month high in the 0.7292 zone.

In Japan the November account surplus was sharply reduced to 897.3 billion yen from the 1,732.3 billion yen seen in the same period a year earlier. The Nikkei 225 index fell -0.94% today with Covid cases still rising hitting a four-month high of 13,000, while the USDJPY pair is now holding onto a two-week low of 114.40 after the US Dollar fell hard yesterday.

From a technical point of view, the AUDJPY pair in the H4 timeframe maintains its positive outlook that has been seen since December. The price is still fixed in the uptrend channel, resting above the MA50. The MACD line is above 0 and RSI is now above the 50 level, with 58 the main resistance at the high of the year at the 84.25 zone. However, if the price falls below the MA50 at 83.25 there could be a pickup in the low zone of the year at 82.40.

For the rest of this week’s economic calendar there are two major releases from Japan: today’s preliminary estimates for machine orders and tomorrow’s PPI figures.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our written permission.

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Real Time Actionable Analysis

Real Time Actionable AnalysisMarkets are on the move, join me today for 'Real Time Actionable Analysis' on over 20 charts, we are going to review current positions & some high probability setups - @ 1pm GMT today - register here for today's session bit.ly/32YUTrI#PlantheTradeTradethePlan #ManageYourRISK #ProcessOverOutcome #PlayingtheProbabilities #forex #futurestrading #StockTrading #tickmill_official #PalmTreeTrader

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