Dollar fails to catch a lift from higher yields, Bank of Japan in focus

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Amazon halts plans to ban UK Visa credit card payments

Amazon has said that it is to shelve its proposed ban on UK customers making payments with Visa credit cards.

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Q4 Earnings Report: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley

It is earnings season once again and the US investment bank giants are scheduled to be the first to release their Q4 2021 financial results. The overall outlook for the US banking sector remains strong, with economic recovery moving at a healthy pace, and the expectations for tighter monetary policy going into 2022 – markets are pricing in around 3 rate hikes by the Federal Reserve – will allow banks to increase their net interest margin on loans, which is also positive. However, higher interest rates might not be good news for the stock markets in general and the anticipated flattening of the yield curve could also be a cause for worry especially in the short term, not to mention the rising virus cases around the world which if not gotten under control could result in further restrictions and slowdown in the economic recovery.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs EPS history 

Source: Tip Ranks

Goldman Sachs is expected to report its earnings and revenue result for Q4 2021 on the 18^th of January  before market open.  Analysts at Zacks projects quarterly earnings to come in at $12.10/share up 0.17% from $12.08/share a year ago and estimates revenue to print at $12.09 billion, up 3% from $11.74 billion in the same quarter in 2020, along with a solid bounce in the full year earnings to $60.70, significantly up from $24.74 EPS in 2020. Following the optimistic outlook as highlighted by Chairman and CEO, David Solomon, after the two strategic acquisitions which he said will enhance the scale and ability of the bank to drive higher and more durable returns, the bank’s expansion plans in Latin America and the $1.7 billion in share repurchases, not forgetting that GS has beat market estimates in 4 of the last 4 quarters by an average of 59.4%; we can expect another solid print this quarter.

#GoldmanSachs Daily

Since mid-2021, the #GoldmanSachs share price has stalled within a range between $370 and $420, keeping a wide swing within the area. Although this comes after a monstrous rally of about 230% from the lows of the pandemic in March 2020 around $130, and despite due some correction, the solid fundamentals of the company have kept the price afloat. It is currently trading at the lower end of the range around $380; there is more room to the upside if we see another solid financial report with the 50-day moving average standing as the first resistance, followed by the $400 level and then the top of the range. The MACD adds to the positives and the weekly chart still shows a solid bullish trend.

Bank of America

Earnings History and Projections

Source: CNBC

The second largest banking institution in the US is expected to report its financial results for Q4 2021 on the 19^th of January, before market open. According to Zacks, consensus estimates holds EPS at 76 cents per share on revenue of $22.08 billion which represents an increase of 21.81% and 9.88% respectively from the same period last year. Despite failing to beat earnings estimate only once since Q1, 2018 with the latest print beating by 66.67%, Zacks’ earnings ESP holds negative at -0.66% showing that recent information has seen analysts revise estimates downward, earning it a #3-hold rating on Zack’s rank. Although, there is cause for optimism as the bank, in the previous quarter, posted a revenue -net of interest paid of $22.8 billion (12% growth), returned nearly $12 billion to shareholders and reported a 58% net income growth as Chairman and CEO Brian Moynihan said the bank’s businesses regained the organic customer growth momentum last seen before the pandemic thus applauding the outstanding results.

#BankofAmerica Daily

Similarly, #BankofAmerica has also remained on a steady bullish run since hitting pandemic lows reached in March, 2020 around $18 and has continued to print higher lows and higher highs on its way up to the stock’s all time high at $50. Recent support around $43 served as the latest stepping stone for price, supported by the support trendline coming from the start of 2021 around $29; with price sitting well above the 50-day moving average -which could serve as support, the MACD showing the bulls are in control and the expectation of another solid quarter financials, we might well be on our way to retest $50 if things pan out as markets expect.

Morgan Stanley

Earnings History and Projections

Source: CNBC

Morgan Stanley is also scheduled to release its financial results on the 19^th of January before market open. Analysts at Zacks project $2 earnings per share, down from $2.04 in the previous quarter but up 4.17% from $1.92 in the same period last year on $14.77 billion in revenue, down from $15.05 billion in the previous quarter but up 8.27% from same period a year ago. Analysts mostly holds a moderate buy rating on the stock and rightly so, considering the stellar 48% growth in the share price in 2021, the standout performance in Q3 helping the bank achieve a record net new asset of $135 billion in Wealth Management, robust revenue, improved efficiency producing an ROTCE (return on average tangible common shareholders’ equity) of 20%, taking the total combined client assets to $6.2 trillion according to Chairman and CEO James Gorman.

 

#Morgan Daily

Technically, #Morgan has been trading within a range for over 5 months since August, 2021 between $94 and $106.5 and has failed to see any meaningful momentum to break out. The 50-day moving average is lost in between price action and sits in a neutral position for the time being. Although, it is important to note that this range sits at the top of the stock price after rallying like the other banks since pandemic lows around $27 and has already seen an impressive rally of almost 300% in that time period and may be due a correction. Near term support comes in at $96.5 and further down the bottom of the range while overhead resistance sits at the top of the range around $106.

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Heritage Adisa

Market Analyst – HF Educational office – Nigeria

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

from HF Analysis /302531/
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Precious Metals Monday 17-01-2022

Metals Looking To Move Higher On USD RetreatThe metals complex has started the week with a bid tone as both gold and silver attempt to trade to the upside here. Relatively speaking, price actions remains fairly muted for now and with the US markets offline for the MLK holiday, flows are likely to remain light today. Metals prices have been subdued over recent sessions though are still sitting higher against the 2022 lows, keeping the focus on further upside in the near term.The key driver for metals markets remains USD at this point. Last week saw a slew of key US data with CPI, PPI and Retail Sales for December all coming through. While retail sales and PPI were both stronger-than-expected, retail sales came in well below forecasts. Given the correction in USD upside we have seen over recent weeks, Friday’s data suggests there is room for further USD decline in the near term, and metals upside consequently, on any further data misses.With the market having built up such elevated Fed tightening expectations, we are currently seeing a period of recalibration in USD positioning. However, for now the market is still looking for the Fed to hike in March. However, if this view shifts this could lead to much deeper declines for USD, paving the way for a much broader rally in metals.Looking ahead this week we have little in the way of key US data, so attention is likely to be on broader risk flows (alongside USD flows). Equities have been under pressure of late, if we see this theme continuing this should help drive inflow to metals, particularly gold. However, if we start to see equities climbing here, this will offset the support from a weaker USD.Technical ViewsGoldGold prices continue to pressure the 1826.71 level resistance. With MACD and RSI bullish here, and with the bullish trend line acting as support, the focus is on an eventual break higher, targeting a test of the 1871.04 level next. To the downside, should we reverse lower from here, the 1763.88 level is the next support to note.SilverFor now, silver prices are trading within a shallow corrective channel, set within the broader bear channel. The current support base of 22.3205 is underpinning the structure and, while intact, might pave the way for a break of the 24.0073 level and bear channel top, affecting a shift in trend. However, should we see price roll over from here, a break of 22.3205 will put the focus on 21.4525 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/precious-metals-17-01-2022"
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Weekly Market Outlook 17.01.21

In this Weekly Market Outlook 17-01-22, our analyst looks into the trading week ahead, possible market moving data releases across the globe and the technical analysis to accompany it!

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/weekly-market-outlook-17-01-21"
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Seize these investment trust bargains in 2022

Attractive investment trusts are trading at a discount, and those waiting for the perfect time to buy will miss out. Max King picks a selection of the best investment trusts to buy for 2022.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/604323/seize-these-investment-trust-bargains-in-2022
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Dollar Drifts Lower as Chinese Rate Cut Supports Commodity Currencies

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-drifts-lower-as-chinese-rate-cut-supports-commodity-currencies-2740274
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Investment Bank Outlook 17-01-2022

CitiEuropean OpenIt was a busier morning today, despite the US MLK holiday, with FX volumes up to 30% more than averages, according to our etraders. The highlight in the Asian session was the 10bps cut in the MLF rate by PBoC, alongside a mixed bag of data from China. FX markets, including CNH were little moved. In the rates space, treasury futures implied new YTD highs for 10y yields, while the JGB sell-off stalled. Equity markets sagged, while energy prices were slightly in the greenLooking ahead, we will watch out for two prints for CAD - the Business Outlook Survey and the Consumer Expectations Survey Q4 - at 15:30 GMT which are likely to be important inputs into the BoC’s next policy rate decision on January 26.USD highlightsUSD was seen flat in a session that did not see many moves in FX. G10 was largely range bound against the greenback. UST markets are closed for MLK day. CitiFX Wire’s Stephen Spratt writes in his note Treasury futures imply new YTD high for 10y yields:–Sleepy start to the week for G-10 FX with all pairs close to New York closes on Friday, while a selloff in bond futures has provided modest boost for USDJPY (+0.2%), which is historically sensitive to changes in front-end rates. Though we note this has failed to provide a broader USD boost. Treasury futures have been very active. After being under modest pressure from the open, a break of January 10 lows in 10y notes saw a surge in volumes, likely stop outs, with bond yields now implied higher by 2-4bps across the curve. This marks a new high for the 10y yields this year, implied at over 1.80%.Looking AheadCAD: Both the Q4 2021 Business Outlook Survey and the Consumer Expectations Survey will be important inputs into the BoC’s next policy rate decision on January 26:–Business Outlook Survey at 15:30 GMT. Citi Economics flags that the survey responses will likely be better than they actually are, given that they will reflect the time-period before the spread of Omicron and the implementation of subsequent restrictions. As a result, our economists will be generally more focused on indications of economic slack in the survey, such as measures of labor shortages and the percent of firms experiencing difficulty meeting demand.–Consumer Expectations Survey Q4 2021 at 15:30 GMT. Citi Economics says the most important factor to watch will be the 5-year inflation expectations. A notable increase in 5-year inflation expectations would be one of the clearest factors supporting a rate hike as early as January.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-17-01-2022"
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Five trends for fund investors to watch in 2022

There is no crystal ball for investment, but these trends could help fund investors prepare for what comes next.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/604322/five-trends-for-fund-investors-to-watch-in-2022
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Daily Market Outlook, January 17, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, January 17, 2022 Overnight Headlines US Omicron Surge Spurs New Covid-19 Relief Push In Congress Democrats Make Voting Rights Push Ahead Of Senate Consideration ECB's Schnabel Warns That Early Rates Hike Could 'Choke' Recovery UK PM Boris Johnson Prepares Mass Clearout To Save Own Skin China Cuts Policy Interest Rate For The First Time Since April 2020 China Tops 2021 Growth Target, But Slowdown Underlined In Q4 Japanese Machinery Orders Rise More Than Expected In November North Korea May Have Fired Ballistic Missile, Fourth Launch In Jan Global Bonds Under Siege Monday As Treasuries Selloff Spreads Oil Extends Rally On Supply Tightness, Brent Tops Three Year HighThe Day Ahead Asian markets were mixed overnight, as China reported a slowdown in the annual rate of growth to 4.0% in Q4 from 4.9% in Q3, weighed down by Covid outbreaks and the property market. Full-year growth for 2021 was 8.1%. There are concerns that China’s zero-Covid policy, especially ahead of next month’s Winter Olympics, will continue to weigh on the economy. Moreover, there may be an impact on already stretched global supply chains, which have added to inflation pressures across the world. In a bid to support the economy, China’s central bank cut interest rates for the first time in nearly two years. It’s a quiet start to the week for Europe and the US in terms of economic data and events. Aside from domestic political developments, there will be considerable interest in UK data this week, including tomorrow morning’s labour market report and inflation figures on Wednesday. The bulk of the labour data in the latest update will be for the three months to November and so will provide further evidence on the initial impact of the end of the furlough scheme. Look for another rise in employment of 125k and a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.1% (from 4.2%), its lowest since June 2020. Moreover, job vacancies are expected to have elevated in December. All of this suggests that the end of furlough has made little difference and that the labour market remains tight. Nevertheless, annual earnings growth will have moderated further in November to 4.2% from 4.9% (or to 3.9% from 4.3% on the excluding bonuses measure). Of late, the earnings data have been so distorted by the pandemic that it has been very difficult to gauge the underlying trend. However, we are now much closer to a cleaner picture, and it appears that, despite reports of big wage increases in some sectors, the whole economy acceleration has so far been more modest. The Bank of Japan early Tuesday is expected to keep policy unchanged, including short-term interest rates at 0.1%. There will be interest in updates to the BoJ’s growth and inflation forecasts. Overall, in contrast to their counterparts in the US and the UK, there are no indications that Japan’s policy rates will be raised this year.CFTC Data Overall positioning in the USD saw little change for a sixth straight week in CFTC data published today. The aggregate USD long rose by USD334mn to USD20b practically equivalent to the USD20.9bn average of the past fifteen weeks. However, the modest net bullish bet on the dollar was the result of a large bet against the JPY and a smaller move against the AUD while investor sentiment improved across all the other currencies covered in this report. Net non-commercial JPY shorts climbed by USD2.8bn to an aggregate bearish position of USD9.5bn, which represents an eight-week low in JPY sentiment as guided by positioning data. The increase in JPY shorts followed last week’s move in the cross past 116 to a fiveyear low (although it has since outperformed all G10 currencies) amid rising US yields. On that note, bearish speculative positioning in 10-yr UST notes has risen to near a two-year high as the yield on these instruments touches 1.80%. The small EUR short flipped into a small net long of USD853mn thanks to a USD1.1bn move in its favour; note that the data precede the EUR’s break of 1.14 on Wednesday. The weekly adjustment follows from an increase in gross longs to a five-month high, while shorts were trimmed to a two-month low. The EUR’s overall position remains non-committal, however, mirrored in a lack of direction in spot trading that lasted through most of December until just a few days ago. Negative positioning in the GBP declined by USD827mn, but the overall USD2.5bn position remains significantly bearish despite the pound’s recent stretch of gains that has taken it past 1.37. This week, investors increased their GBP longs by roughly as much as they reduced their GBP shorts (4.5k vs 5.5k contracts). • Speculators also trimmed the small CAD short by USD281mn to USD587mn in a week where the CAD led the G10 currencies with a 1.1% gain to a seven-week high (at the cutoff date of the data). The AUD was the only other currency aside from the JPY that saw a bearish bet this week, with a minor USD130mn to its sizable USD6.6bn short; the NZD position was practically unchanged. Finally, the MXN position remains neutral at USD109mn with a USD122mn move in its favour while the CHF short neared USD1bn after a reduction of USD263mn this week.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )EUR/USD: 1.1200 (623M), 1.1325-30 (290M), 1.1340-45 (363M)1.1400-10 (340M), 1.1505-15 (657M)USD/JPY: 114.05-10 (520M), 114.20 (1.0BLN), 115.00-10 (1.577BLN)116.00 (310M), 116.50 (680M)GBP/USD: 1.3395 (244M), 1.4100-05 (300M). EUR/GBP 0.8405-10 (685M)AUD/USD: 0.7285 (577M). EUR/NOK 10.31 (352M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above Steady after early dip finds buying support EUR/USD opened 1.1425 after closing down 0.33% on Friday when USD bounced The opening price was the high and EUR/USD eased to 1.1400 USD moved higher across the board early, but EUR/USD bids around 1.1400 held Heading into the afternoon it is unchanged at 1.1416 EUR/USD trending higher with the 5, 10 and 21-day MAs in a bullish alignment Support is at the 10-day MA at 1.1368 and break would suggest top is forming Strong resistance around 1.1500 where 61.8 fibo and 100-day MA converge Key will moves in US yields ahead of Jan 26 FOMCGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Soft, as U.S. dollar firms – UK wages pressure builds -0.1%, busy early at the top of a 1.3665-1.3675 range with a firmer USD London financial vacancies jump 40% from pre-pandemic level UK manufacturers feel the pay pressure from rising inflation Pay rises key for BoE - BOE WATCH priced a Feb hike to 0.50% at 78.31% Friday Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages, plus 21 day Bollinger bands climb Momentum studies conflict, which is still a strong positive trending setup Initial target comes in at the 1.3829/34 range top in October - likely caps Sustained 1.3620 10 DMA break, a recent base would undermine topside biasUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below JPY crosses bid in Asia with US, other yields up USD/JPY adds to gains Friday in Asia, 114.16 to 114.51 EBS NY saw it up to 114.27 Friday from a low of 113.48 as US yields spiked USD/JPY moving up through 114.09-62 hourly Ichi cloud Tracks away from daily Ichi cloud between 113.17-64, 114.23 55-DMA Good support now from bids ahead of 114.00 now - importers, investors Option expiries today-tom too, today 114.10-20 $1.5 bln, tom 114.00 $1.5 bln Also massive $1.5 bln at 115.00 today, to help cap, tom not till 116+ Tokyo risk mood better, Nikkei +0.8% @28,344, AXJ mixed, E-Minis -0.2% @4646AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above Recovers from early dip after China GDP better than expected AUD/USD opened 0.7215 after falling 0.87% Friday when US yields and USD rose AUD/USD came under pressure early Asia and fell to 0.7196 at one stage USD was broadly bid in Asia first up and moved higher across the board China Q4 GDP came in better than expected while retail sales and IP were mixed AUD/USD steadied and is trading around 0.7205/10 into the afternoon Resistance is at 0.7215/20 where the 10 & 21-day MAs converge A break above 0.7220 would ease the downward pressure Bids are tipped ahead of 0.7190 with support at Jan 7 low at 0.7130

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-17-2022"
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Ruble to Hit the Level of 78 Soon

Good day,Since last Friday the price of the Russian ruble is approaching the level of 77. It seems that the price of USD/RUB will hit the level of 78.00 and then gradually drop.Brent oil is likely to pull back from the resistance at the level of 86.70. The asset is quite close to this level already. Should oil manage to break this level, it might jump quite far, therefore, it is worth observing what is going to happen next.The price of the British pound broke the downtrend. Currently, the asset is pulling back to this downtrend and broken psychological level of 1.3600. The British pound is likely to pull back from the broken daily downtrend anytime soon.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ruble-to-hit-the-level-of-78-soon"
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BTCUSD, H4 | Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 43478.19Pivot: 42583.45Support: 39760. 93Preferred Case:Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance, signifying overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to continue to drop from pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and graphical overlap support (if price close below pivot) towards 1st Support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is abiding to the descending trendline resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push higher up to the 1st Resistance in line with 78.6% Fibonancci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-bearish-continuation17"
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AUDUSD , H4 | Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.73115Pivot: 0.7178Support: 0.71406Preferred Case:Price abiding to ascending channel, signifying overall bullish momentum. We can expect price to bounce at the pivot level in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Resistance in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and previous swing high. Our bullish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is approaching support level.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push down further to the 1st Support in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-bullish-bounce17"
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EURUSD, H4 I Potential For A Rise!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.14799Pivot: 1.13866Support: 1.13185Preferred Case:Price is approaching our pivot level at 1.13866 which is in line with horizontal overlap support, 50% Fibonacci retracement level . We could potentially see a further rise from here towards 1st resistance at 1.14799, which coincides with 161.8% Fibonacci extension level and horizontal swing high resistance. This is further supported by how price is now holding above the Ichimoku cloud support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, we may see price drop to 1st support at 1.13185, which coincides with horizontal swing low support

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-i-potential-for-a-rise"
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