Good day,The price of the USD/RUB broke the downtrend. However, the asset’s price might also pull back and target the 78 level soon.Should the currency pair manage to break the range and pull back to the broken downtrend, the asset might target the supporting level of 73.35.The price of gold is likely to target the weekly downtrend denoted by the blue line on the chart and test the level of 1845.00.Brent oil is heading up. This asset is about to face the resistance at the level of 96.00, pull back, and drop till the supporting level of 86.70. The pullback might correct the main trend, but let’s wait and see what’s going to happen next.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/russian-ruble-is-on-the-rise-07-02-2022"
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Monday, February 7, 2022
XAGUSD, H4 | Potential Trendline Breakout
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 23.069 Pivot: 22.464Support: 22.299Preferred Case:Prices have recently broken out of our descending trendline resistance and are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for further bullish continuation from our Pivot at 22.464 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 23.069 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 22.299 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xagusd-h4-or-potential-trendline-breakout"
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from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xagusd-h4-or-potential-trendline-breakout"
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DXY, H4 | Bullish Momentum
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 95.76Pivot: 95.205Support: 95.033Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 95.205 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 95.76 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 95.033 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dxy-h4-or-bullish-momentum"
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from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dxy-h4-or-bullish-momentum"
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AUDNZD, H4 | Bullish Bounce
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.07344Pivot: 1.06881Support: 1.0675Preferred Case:Price is reacting on the ascending channel, signifying an overall bulllish momentum. We can expect price to bounce at the pivot level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bounce is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K is at the support line.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push down to the 1st Support in line with 127.2% fibonacci projection.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audnzd-h4-or-bullish-bounce"
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from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audnzd-h4-or-bullish-bounce"
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BTCUSD, H4 | Bullish Breakout
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 51337.62Pivot: 40983.5Support: 36394.02Preferred Case:Price breakout of the descending trendline resistance, signifying an overall bullish momentum. We can expect price to push higher up from the pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by the Ichimoku cloud indicator where the price holding above it.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price can drop back down to 1st Support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-bullish-breakout"
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from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-bullish-breakout"
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USDCAD, H4 I Potential Rise Type
Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.27943Pivot: 1.27156Support: 1.26647Preferred Case:With prices moving above the Ichimoku cloud, we see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 1.27156 in line with horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1.27943 in line with horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.26647, in line with the horizontal swing low support.
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-h4-i-potential-rise-type"
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from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-h4-i-potential-rise-type"
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Dollar Up, Euro Near Three-Week High as Central Banks Continue Hawkish Tone
from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-up-euro-near-threeweek-high-as-central-banks-continue-hawkish-tone-2758055
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Euro near three-week top, but looming Fed tightening could help dollar
from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/euro-near-threeweek-top-but-looming-fed-tightening-could-help-dollar-2758018
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Sunday, February 6, 2022
Companies can't ride out inflation by raising prices
Consumer-goods giant Procter & Gamble says consumers are switching to premium brands. Burberry has said it expects to have to put up the price of its coats and bags as costs increase. According to a Which survey, Waitrose has been putting up prices faster than rival supermarket chains and yet sails on regardless. Meanwhile, BT is pushing up broadband prices way ahead of inflation and even the mighty Greggs, hardly anyone’s idea of an upmarket brand, has put up the price of its sausage rolls. Companies are complacently assuming they can ride out a bout of inflation with higher prices. But is that really true?
Inflation: back to the Seventies?
Most of the developed world is witnessing a burst of inflation on a scale that it has not experienced for 30 years or more. In the US, prices are going up at an annualised rate of 7.2%. In the UK, inflation has hit 5.2% and, with energy price rises still to come, will probably go above 6% very soon. Of course, this might not be sustained. If oil and gas prices start to level off, and if supply chains that were snarled up by the pandemic straighten out again, prices may start to steady. But if wages start to rise more rapidly as well, and if central banks misjudge what policies are needed, then we may well find ourselves right back in a 1970s-style wage-price inflationary spiral.
For companies, that poses a real problem. Many of them seem to be assuming that, if costs are rising, they can just put up their prices. Everyone, from coffee chains to fashion brands to streaming services such as Netflix, has been putting up their prices. Costs are going up, they explain to anyone who might complain. We don’t have any choice but to charge a bit more. That is, of course, the easiest option. But there are two big problems with complacently assuming that prices can always be lifted at the same rate as inflation.
First, we are about to see a real squeeze on living standards. Take the UK, for example. Wages are now rising by 4% a year, but prices by 5.2%, and are set to rise even more steeply quite soon. It doesn’t take any great mathematical skill to work out that lots of people are getting steadily poorer. Once the energy-prices cap is lifted, and the ill-judged tax rises announced by the government come into effect, many households are going to be struggling to make ends meet. They will have to start making choices about what to cut out of the weekly budget. True, they will get rid of the luxuries first, but they will also cut out any items that have risen sharply in price.
Second, price rises open up space for lower-cost, smarter competitors to emerge. Every price rise creates an opportunity for a rival to come into the market. If they can find a way of offering the same product or service at a lower price, perhaps by finding cheaper suppliers, or operating more efficiently, then they can very quickly undercut you. And consumers who are feeling squeezed will notice very quickly.
A naive generation of managers
There is a generation of managers in charge that has never experienced inflation on a serious scale before. Prices are now rising at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. Warren Buffett is probably the only CEO who has been around for long enough to remember what that was like and how to deal with it: it is brutally hard to navigate; firms have to be vigilant, lean, efficient and move very quickly if they are to survive.
Many companies are very naively raising their selling prices. Perhaps even worse, many shareholders are assuming that the businesses they invest in can maintain their margins and perhaps even improve them while inflation is escalating. Over time, they will pay a high price for that. Consumers will notice and start to abandon businesses they feel are overcharging them. And competitors will see a space in the market and start to move in. The real winners from this bout of inflation will be the companies that hold their prices, offer value for money and, if necessary, take a hit to their margins. They will do a lot better over the next couple of years than those who think they can push up prices at the same rate as costs
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/inflation/604408/companies-cant-ride-out-inflation-by-raising-prices
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Saturday, February 5, 2022
Turkey's President Erdogan tests positive for COVID-19
from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/turkeys-president-erdogan-tests-positive-for-covid19-2757654
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The curious case of Cox & Kings
In 2007, India’s most storied travel firm, Cox & Kings, signed a long lease to acquire a mountain in the Swiss Alps, grandly “re-branding” it under its own name. The move was typical of the historic company’s ambition to tap the growing appetite for travel among India’s middle-classes. Shortly after, it marked its 250th anniversary by floating on the Mumbai stock exchange. It has taken little more than a decade for the edifice to come crashing down.
A fall from grace
What a fall it’s been, says Indian legal website The Leaflet. CEO Peter Kerkar, the globe-trotting Stanford graduate who ran the group, is in a Mumbai jail accused of defrauding banks and plundering the company of hundreds of millions. His sister Urrshila, who handled the Indian business, lives in a faded mansion on the city’s seafront with their elderly father, awaiting her own possible summons. The Kerkars vehemently deny any wrongdoing, arguing that they’re the innocent victims of rogue executives and financial associates, and will fight to clear the family name. “You could call us dumb and dumber,” Urrshila recently told the Financial Times. “They’ve not found even a single rupee with Peter or myself… We haven’t taken the bloody money.”
The episode, described by a judge last year as a “fraud of epic proportions”, is the latest, and possibly final, chapter in the history of a company whose rise mirrors that of India. The firm got its start in 1758 when Richard Cox arrived as an agent “to supply British troops as they plundered the subcontinent”, quickly adding banking and shipping interests, says the FT: diamonds, rubies and other “colonial spoils” flowed through its accounts. Having merged, following the first world war, with rival Henry S. King & Co, the company was bought by Lloyds Bank, which split the business. It sold the shipping operation, which “began its transformation into a travel company”, says The Times. In the 1970s, Cox & Kings came under increasing pressure to sell itself as part of then-prime minister Indira Gandhi’s drive to “Indianise” colonial institutions.
Step forward, Ajit Kerkar – a London-trained hotelier, married to a Swiss interior designer, who ran the hospitality division of India’s largest conglomerate, the Tata Group. Teaming up with British PR executive Anthony Good, he acquired Cox & Kings in around 1980. In 1986, Kerkar brought his 20-something son, Peter, into the business, says Rediff. “Colleagues describe him as ambitious and intelligent, with a hands-off style” – apparently more at home in Hampstead, and at his Irish holiday house in Kerry, than in India, which he visited “barely three or four times a year for board meetings”. Married to Emma Tully, daughter of the BBC’s veteran Indian bureau chief Mark Tully, Kerkar Jr was a hit on the London business circuit (“very hail-fellow-well-met”, according to Rocco Forte), who lost no time striking deals in pursuit of his aim of becoming the Indian Thomas Cook. In 2011, Cox & Kings acquired the British educational tour group Holidaybreak for £312m, multiplying its debt fivefold.
The missing millions
With hindsight, it was downhill thereafter. Cox & Kings began selling business units in Europe, supposedly to pay down debt. But a later inquiry established that the proceeds had disappeared. Investigators, working through a list of allegedly fake customers and shell companies, has still not determined exactly where the group’s missing millions (it was valued at $1.2bn in 2018) have ended up. In 2020, Kerkar and several other executives, including chief financial officer Anil Khandelwal, were arrested. The mystery “darkened” when another finance manager was found dead on a railway track. The case has yet to go trial, and could embroil much of the Indian financial establishment – and even the government, says The Leaflet. “The curious case of Cox & Kings” could yet get nastier.
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/604419/the-curious-case-of-cox-kings
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Friday, February 4, 2022
Republican senator urges U.S. to monitor China's digital yuan push during Olympics
from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/republican-senator-urges-us-to-monitor-chinas-digital-yuan-push-during-olympics-2757295
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Events to Look Out for Next Week
- Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) –The UK economy was stronger than expected before Omicron hit. Monthly GDP data for November were a positive surprise, with a rise of 0.9% m/m that compensated somewhat for the disappointing October reading. The three months rate lifted to 1.1% from 0.9%, and while Omicron will have curtailed overall activity in December, the last quarter of the year doesn’t look quite as disappointing as previously feared. Higher energy prices remain the main driving factor for the spike in prices and the expected jump in the cost of living, which will likely slow GDP growth.
- Trade Balance (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The UK trade deficit is expected to have narrowed to 14.2 bln in December, from 11.34 bln in the previous month.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
from HF Analysis /307928/
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China's stockmarket gets ready to roar
“As the Chinese year of the tiger begins, the… market is set to really bare its teeth,” says Kate Marshall of Hargreaves Lansdown. In 2008 China accounted for 15% of the emerging market stock index, but its shares have since risen to one-third. “Chinese middle and upper income groups are forecast to expand by over a third of a billion people by 2030,” roughly equivalent to the US population. Not for the first time, Asia looks set to be the “engine of global growth”.
Chinese stocks had a terrible 2021
Despite that, “Chinese stocks had a terrible 2021”, says Jacky Wong in The Wall Street Journal. A regulatory crackdown on education and tech stocks – “Alibaba lost nearly half of its market value in 2021” – combined with a slowing property market saw the large-cap CSI 300 index finish last year down 5%.
Yet 2022 may be better. While most central banks hike interest rates, China has eased monetary policy in recent months to cushion the effects of the property downturn. That should provide a “tailwind” to equities, which look cheap: on 12.1 times forecast earnings, the MSCI China index trades below its five-year average valuation.
Wall Street is almost entirely bullish, agrees Sofia Horta e Costa on Bloomberg. Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan forecasts that the MSCI China index will “surge almost 40%” this year. “That bet isn’t going so well.” The CSI 300 fell 7% in January and entered a bear market, having fallen 20% since a February 2021 peak.
The ongoing property market fallout, earnings downgrades and Omicron restrictions are keeping the market subdued for now, says Sean Taylor of DWS. But come the second quarter “targeted government support” will boost growth and should see stocks start to outperform.
Big tech is out of favour
China may also dodge the West’s Covid-19 hangover. While debt has soared elsewhere during the crisis, China’s non-financial-sector debt fell by 7% to 265% of gross domestic product by the third quarter of last year. The “de-leveraging” campaign that has hit the property sector is bearing fruit. “In the last Year of the Tiger, 12 years ago, China successfully overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest economy.” This year could bring a similar leap in markets.
The upcoming Winter Olympics and a busy political year should see Beijing prioritise stability in 2022, says Reshma Kapadia in Barron’s. That “lowers the odds of further dramatic regulatory crackdowns”. Still, “the online businesses, e-commerce companies and gaming” stocks that dominated the last decade are now out of favour, says Pradipta Chakrabortty of investment manager Harding Loevner. Instead, the climate favours smaller firms in sectors such as industrials, healthcare and IT, says Kapadia.
from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/china-stockmarkets/604420/chinas-stockmarket-gets-ready-to-roar
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