USDCAD, H4 I Potential Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance:Pivot:Support:Preferred Case:With prices approaching the support of the ichimoku cloud, we see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 1.26619 in line with horizontal swing low support and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st resistance at 1.27934 in line with horizontal swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.25662, in line with the horizontal overlap support and 161.8% Fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdcad-h4-i-potential-rise8"
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Dollar Up Alongside Euro, Investors Await U.S. Inflation Data

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-up-alongside-euro-investors-await-us-inflation-data-2758966
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Euro bounce pauses ahead of U.S. inflation

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/euro-bounce-pauses-ahead-of-us-inflation-2758886
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UK house prices hit a fresh record last month, but the market may be cooling off

The average UK house price hit £276,759 in January. That’s a fresh record, and £24,500 higher than this time last year. 

That said, the rate of house price inflation showed possible signs of cooling down. The latest reading from Halifax showed that prices rose by 0.3% during the month, the smallest such increase since June 2021. That won’t be a huge comfort to potential first-time buyers, given that the annual rate of inflation still stands at 9.7%. 

Cost of living crisis to weigh on house growth 

Russell Galley of Halifax said that affordability remains a big issue for consumers as “house price rises continue to outstrip earnings growth”. Meanwhile, rising living costs are also squeezing the available income for servicing mortgages.

Consumers are being financially squeezed from almost all corners, with energy prices at record highs (the energy price cap increased by £693 last week), plus a national insurance hike coming in April. 

Mortgages may also become at least a little more expensive – the Bank of England raised interest rates last week to 0.5% and investors are currently betting the central bank will hike interest rates at least twice again this year in a belated attempt to tackle inflation. 

“While the limited supply of new housing stock to the market will continue to provide some support to house prices, it remains likely that the rate of house price growth will slow considerably over the next year,” said Galley. 

Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to EY ITEM Club, an economic forecasting group, reckons January’s slowdown in Halifax’s January reading may be a harbinger for things to come. “This year won’t see a boost to prices from the stamp duty holiday which ran through much of 2021. To the extent the tax holiday brought forward purchases, its after-effects may drag on housing market activity in the near term.”

He said expected interest rate hikes coupled with the spike in the cost of living from higher inflation and tax rises mean  “it’s likely that fewer people will be able to afford to borrow the necessary amount they need to buy at higher mortgage rates”. 

But while EY Item Club expects a slowdown in the housing market, it doesn’t expect house prices to drop, because a buildup of household savings during the pandemic should offset the impact of higher costs. 

“With around 80% of the stock of UK mortgage debt at fixed rates, most mortgage holders are well insulated from increases in mortgage rates in the short term,” it said. 

How different regions in the UK performed 

Wales recorded the strongest pace of annual growth at 13.9%, with the average house price now standing at £205,253. Northern Ireland also recorded strong growth with prices up 10.2% compared to last year, giving an average property value in January of £170,982.

House price growth cooled a little in Scotland to 8.9%, with the average property price now £192,698. In England, the North West was the strongest-performing region, with the average price up by 12% on the year, to £213,200. 

While London was still the weakest-performing area of the UK, the capital continued its upward trajectory, with annual price growth rising for a third consecutive month to 4.5%. That’s  double the rate recorded in December and the most robust performance in a year. 

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/604431/uk-house-prices-hit-a-fresh-record-last-month-but-the
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Rouble recovers to 3-wk high vs dollar, Putin-Macron talks in focus

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Dollar Edges Higher; Euro Slips Back From Three-Week High

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-edges-higher-euro-slips-back-from-threeweek-high-2758144
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Emerging FX already riding higher local rates will outperform this year: Reuters poll

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Investment Bank Outlook 07-02-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightIt was a quiet start to the week in Asia with the markets anxiously waiting on US CPI data later in the week. China returned from the Lunar New Year holidays and its equity markets saw a rally. A small majority of Asian bourses were trading higher and S&P500 futures slightly in the red at the time of writing. Strong oil prices led to the CAD being an outperformer among G10 currencies alongside the AUD. The AUD was given a boost by the government announcing that it is re-opening its borders to international students and tourists. The EUR and SEK were the underperforming G10 currencies in the Asian session.CitiEuropean OpenMarkets were relatively calm, although Chinese participants saw their first day back following the Lunar New Year holidays. G10 currencies were little moved, although EUR saw a modest dip despite ECB’s Knot’s hawkish talk over the weekend. The PBoC set the yuan reference rate weaker than expected today morning, which seems to be in line with PBoC's recent moves to low the appreciation of the yuan. Meanwhile, India’s MPC will be pushed out by a day following a declaration of a Public holiday in the state of Maharashtra.Looking ahead, ECB’s Lagarde’s speech at 15:45 GMT will be closely eyed by markets, with any shifts in language expected to shift markets accordingly. Data for EUR will also be watched with German IP (07:00 GMT) and Eurozone Sentix Investor confidence (09:30 GMT). Meanwhile, CZK will see IP data at 08:00 GMT and BRL an inflation print at 11:00 GMT.The movers and shakersThe return of Chinese market players following the Lunar New Year holidays did not move markets much, with G10 currencies relatively stable. This followed the strong payrolls data last Friday, which had led to outperformance in the greenback. S&P Eminis and Nasdaq100 futures saw a dip towards the NY close and remained flat through the Asian session. Oil saw similar price action, remaining flat from the European close and through the Asian morning.USD price action saw the greenback soar following the non-farm payrolls, before paring some gains during the NY session, The Asian session saw is mostly flat.UST on the other hand, was flat following the NFP spike during NY trading. Asia trading saw some strength in the long-end, but front end was flat. Our trader Hideyuki Liu writing the following:–Friday's blowout NFP data last Friday had catapulted treasury yields higher, sending 10y and 30y yields above 1.9% and 2.2%, respectively. Futures opened softer this morning, briefly trading below Friday's lows before good buying helped support the market modestly. Relative to Friday EOD, treasuries are higher, led by strength in the long-end, and the desk has seen RM buying to corroborate the price action. Overall, the day's flows has seen better buying from both FM and RM as the curve trades flatter. Post NFP, markets have started pricing in about 134bps of hikes by the end of 2022

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-07-02-2022"
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China could take further measures to rein in yuan- former regulator

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Daily Market Outlook, February 7, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, February 7, 2022 Overnight Headlines Lawmakers Signal Stopgap Spending Bill Needed As Talks Continue House Passes Chips Bill As Republicans Air Soft-On-China Gripes US Restores Sanctions Waiver To Iran, Nuclear Talks In Final Phase White House Warns Russian Attack On Ukraine Possible 'Any Day' ECB's Knot Sees First Interest Rate Hike In Fourth Quarter Of 2022 Boris Johnson Seeks Reset Over 'Partygate' With Time Running Out Chinese Services Activity Expands At Slowest Rate In Five Months Australia Posts Record Quarterly Retail Sales In A Boost To GDP Chinese Stocks Head For Best Post-Lunar Holiday Gain Since 2019 Amazon And Nike Are Evaluating Separate Bids To Buy Peloton Oil Turns Higher On Tight Supply Fears, Shrugging Off Iran TalksThe Week Ahead U.S. January consumer inflation data is squarely in focus after Treasury yields rose to two-year highs on Friday, as inflation concerns force major central banks to make a hawkish pivot. Core CPI is expected to rise 5.9% year-on-year from 5.5% in December. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading on Thursday will likely fuel hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, sending U.S. bond yields higher and possibly cause more volatility in equity markets. Other data out of the U.S. includes December trade numbers and preliminary February University of Michigan consumer sentiment. In Europe the focus will be on German data, which includes industrial production, trade and current account – as well as CPI. Markets will also monitor comments from European Central Bank officials after President Christine Lagarde's hawkish surprise last week. It will be a busier week for UK data, with IP, trade balance and Q4 GDP on tap. China reopens after a week-long holiday, with Caixin services PMI and FX reserves due. January credit data may also be released this week. Japan data includes trade balance, current account and household spending. Australia NAB business survey is due later in the week. New Zealand has no top-tier data this week while Canada's calendar is limited to trade data.CFTC Data USD net spec long dips; JPY, AUD shorts trimmed, GBP short grows - 04 Feb 2022 USD net spec long reduced in Jan 26-Feb 1 period, $IDX +0.31% EUR specs sold 1,844 contracts now long 29,716; EUR was down 0.22% in period Yen specs cut USD long, +7,633 contracts amid USD rise of 0.72% in period GBP sold hard despite GBP$ flattish in period, specs -15,842 contracts AUD specs +3,444 contracts, AUD$ -0.31%; CAD spec long increased to +18,264 BTC buyers bottom-fish, position flips to +141 as specs buy 175 contracts Data dated as EUR, USD rallied after Thursday ECB hawkish lean; US NFP beatG10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.1200-15 (412M), 1.1300 (275M), 1.1360 (292M) 1.1500 (667M) USD/JPY: 114.50 (930M), 115.00 (572M), 115.65-70 (550M) 16.00 (259M). GBP/USD: 1.3400 (649M) EUR/JPY: 127.05 (378M). AUD/USD: 0.7080 (259M) 0.7100 (210M). NZD/USD 0.6700 (368M) AUD/NZD: 1.0600 (1.36BLN) USD/CAD: 1.2440-50 (710M), 1.2690 (269M), 1.2730-40 (630M) 1.2760 (220M) EUR/NOK: 10.00 (400M), 10.0700 (375M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above EUR/USD dip – buyers are banking on 1.1426 to hold EUR/USD dips to 1.1432 from Fri close 1.1451; pivotal If 100 DMA support at 1.1426 holds, EUR might bounce That would also keep Bollinger uptrend channel intact But a close above 1.1439 more convincing That would also place it back above 50% retracement line UST yields ebbing after NFP-induced surge; 10y 1.901%GBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. GBP does little in Asia, on hold against other major currencies Cable 1.3517-40, still trading tad heavy, above 1.3500, 1.3504 low Friday Descending 100-DMA at 1.3509, Ichi cloud below between 0.3375-1.3495 200-HMA at 1.3488, extent of any further downside for now? GBP591 mln 1.3400 option expiries today, well below current levels Tomorrow to see 1.3500-10 GBP868 mln, 1.3560 1.45 bln, to help contain? Recent push up in UK yields supportive, Gilt 10s @1.410% GBP/JPY 155.72-156.09, relatively buoyant amidst broad JPY weakness On hold between 157.76 top Jan 5, 153.00-34 EUR/GBP relatively bid, Asia 0.8455-63 ECB Pres Lagarde talk tonight a major focus going forwardUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below USD/JPY sees good two – way flows into/post – Tokyo fix USD/JPY on back foot early with Nikkei off 350+ pts after TSE open From 115.32 to 115.14 on in tandem with the Nikkei Nikkei since seeing some bounce, good Tokyo fix demand, USD/JPY to 115.33 Pair still relatively bid, good demand seen on dips from various players Upside still limited on Japanese exporter, spec long offers Decent amounts tipped at 115.50, 60, 70, trailing higher $550 mln option expiries at 115.65-70 strikes tooAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above Slips lower as USD attains bid tone in Asia AUD/USD opened around 0.7075/80 after falling 0.88% after US jobs data... After trading at 0.7070 it rebounded to 0.7084 on light AUD/JPY demand Later in the morning the EUR/USD fell and AUD/USD eased to 0.7065/70 It is at the session low heading into the afternoon E-mini futures are 0.35% lower and underpinning USD sentiment Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.7091 and 55-day MA at 0.7166 Support is at Friday's 0.7050 low and break may see a test below 0.7000

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-february-7-2022"
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Russian Ruble is on the Rise!

Good day,The price of the USD/RUB broke the downtrend. However, the asset’s price might also pull back and target the 78 level soon.Should the currency pair manage to break the range and pull back to the broken downtrend, the asset might target the supporting level of 73.35.The price of gold is likely to target the weekly downtrend denoted by the blue line on the chart and test the level of 1845.00.Brent oil is heading up. This asset is about to face the resistance at the level of 96.00, pull back, and drop till the supporting level of 86.70. The pullback might correct the main trend, but let’s wait and see what’s going to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/russian-ruble-is-on-the-rise-07-02-2022"
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XAGUSD, H4 | Potential Trendline Breakout

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 23.069 Pivot: 22.464Support: 22.299Preferred Case:Prices have recently broken out of our descending trendline resistance and are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for further bullish continuation from our Pivot at 22.464 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 23.069 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 22.299 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xagusd-h4-or-potential-trendline-breakout"
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DXY, H4 | Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 95.76Pivot: 95.205Support: 95.033Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 95.205 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 95.76 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 95.033 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dxy-h4-or-bullish-momentum"
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AUDNZD, H4 | Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.07344Pivot: 1.06881Support: 1.0675Preferred Case:Price is reacting on the ascending channel, signifying an overall bulllish momentum. We can expect price to bounce at the pivot level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bounce is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K is at the support line.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could push down to the 1st Support in line with 127.2% fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audnzd-h4-or-bullish-bounce"
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