USDJPY, H4 | Potential For Further Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 115.597Pivot: 115.491Support: 115.119Preferred Case:Prices are abiding to a daily ascending trendline. We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our Pivot in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 115.119 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension. RSI is close to levels where dips previously occurred, supporting our bearish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 115.597 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement.

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DXY, H4, Potential for dips

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 98.486Pivot: 98.104Support: 97.411Preferred Case:Prices are at a key resistance at our pivot at 98.104 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. We see the potential for a short pullback from our Pivot at 98.104 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 161.8% Fibonacci Projection towards our 1st support at 97.411 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Divergence is spotted on RSI, further supporting our bearish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb higher towards our 1st resistance at 98.486 in line with 200% Fibonacci Projection.

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Market Update – March 4 – Markets slump after nuclear power station strike

Risk Off mood swirled as Europe’s largest nuclear power complex was targeted in Russian/Ukrainian fighting, 2 of the 6 reactors have been safely shutdown. Safe havens from the USD to US Treasuries continue to rally and Oil & GOLD markets hold their gains. Lifting commodity currencies. Asian stock markets crash (Nikkei -2.5%) and EUR is testing 24-month lows. US markets closed lower on mixed US data (PMI’s disappointed but Initial Claims were better than expected),  & despite some big gains from retailers. Fed Chair Powell was a tad more Hawkish in his second day of testimony. US sanctioned more Russian oligarchs. Ukraine and Russia reached an understanding on a joint provision of humanitarian corridors for evacuating civilians.

• USD (USDIndex 98.02). Cooled from 98.08 (May 2020 high) earlier as nuclear power plant fire is contained. Rallied through 97.00 most of yesterday. 97.75 next resistance.  
• US Yields 10-yr up to 1.844  on close – off 6 ticks lower to 1.785% now. 
• Equities – USA500 -23pts (-0.53%) 4363.   US500 FUTS down at  4341 now.  
• USOil – Rallied to $112.56 , yesterday, $106.10 now.  
• Gold – Rallied to $1950 nearlier,  trades at $1936 now.     
• Bitcoin under 42K levels to trade at $43,300. 
• FX markets – EURUSD back under 1.1010, USDJPY holds 115.40 and Cable down to  1.3320 now.    

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 50 ticks at 169.71, U.S. futures are also higher across the board, as investors head for safety once again. The Russian attack clearly has rattled nerves and left investors seeking safety in bonds and the greenback. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are down -1.97% and -1.10% respectively. Developments in Ukraine may even overshadow the U.S. payroll report today.  

Today – EZ Retail Sales & Construction PMI, US Labour Market Report.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.72%) Collapse from 1.6200 in mid February continues down to 1.4975 now. MAs  aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below  0 line, RSI 14 OS but still falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily ATR 0.0100.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Dollar Up, Euro Down as Russian Invasion of Ukraine Intensifies

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Euro tumbles further after news of fire at Ukrainian nuclear plant

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World Oil Prices: No Way Home

World crude oil prices have continued to soar to new highs not seen since 2013, with Russian and Ukrainian geopolitical tensions unending. World demand for crude oil continues to increase. The actions of the European Union and the US imposing economic sanctions on Russia are clearly of concern to markets where these sanctions are expected to result in a reduction in supply of about 1 million barrels a day for world markets.

The toxic situation of Russia’s aggression on Ukraine is not expected to be resolved any time soon, despite in a ministerial meeting the IEA agreeing to remove oil reserves of 60 million barrels, and OPEC’s agreement to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels a day. World crude oil prices will continue to strengthen until the Russia-Ukraine issue finds a path to reconciliation, similarly to the sharp rise in world crude oil prices seen during the 1991 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.

Yesterday, White House Press Secretary Psaki was quoted as saying that the United States is now very open to considering sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas sector. They are now seriously considering it while taking into account the implications of these sanctions on the economy.

Declining supply concerns can be clearly seen in the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, which reported that crude oil inventories had declined 2.6 million barrels in the week to Feb. 25, compared to an increase of 4.5 million barrels previously.

Crude oil prices remain high today. The price of Brent crude oil (UKOIL) continues to hit its highest levels since 2013; it is currently trading at $119 a barrel, and is heading for the 2012 high of $128 a barrel. The record highest Brent oil price was $147.50 a barrel recorded in 2018. $115 is the nearest support level followed by the psychological support level at $100.

Meanwhile the price of WTI crude oil (USOIL) hit $112.60, a high last seen in 2013, and could next reach the 2011 high at $114.80. The highest level ever recorded by USOIL was  $147.27, seen in 2018. If the current geopolitical situation does not change, this level is unlikely to be reached in the near future.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Tunku Ishak Al-Irsyad

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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NZDJPY H4 | Potential For A Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 78.859Pivot: 78.079Support: 77.561Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, with the possibility of price retesting our pivot of 78.079 in line with horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise to the 1st resistance level of 78.859 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. Our bullish bias is supported by how price is moving within the ascending channel and above the Ichimoku cloud.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot and head for 1st support at 77.561 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 50% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdjpy-h4-or-potential-for-a-rise"
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US30 H4 | Potential For A Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 34376Pivot: 33546Support: 32913Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, there is a possibility that price may test our pivot at 33546 in line with horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise to the 1st resistance level of 34376 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by how price is moving above the Ichimoku cloud.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot and head for 1st support at 32913 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us30-h4-or-potential-for-a-rise"
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CHFJPY, H4 | Potential For Pullback!

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 125.951Pivot: 125.68Support: 124.969Preferred Case:Prices are at a strong graphical resistance at our pivot at 125.68 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot towards our 1st support at 124.969 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Divergence is spotted on RSI, further supporting out bearish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 125.951 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/chfjpy-h4-or-potential-for-pullback"
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AUDUSD, H4 | Potential For Bearish Dip!

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.73178Pivot: 0.72908Support: 0.71743Preferred Case:Prices are consolidating in a parallel channel. With bearish divergence spotted on RSI, we see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 0.72908 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 0.71743 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb higher towards our 1st resistance at 0.73178 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 100% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-potential-for-bearish-dip"
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Daily Market Outlook, March 3, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, March 3, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fitch, Moody's Downgrade Russia's Sovereign Rating To Junk China Asked Russia To Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics China's Feb Services Activity Expands At Slowest Rate In Six Months BoJ’s Nakagawa: Fuel Spike May Push Japan's Inflation Near BoJ's 2% Goal Japan's Service Sector Activity Contracts At Fastest Pace In 21 Months Iron Ore, Coal Trigger Large Rebound In Australian Trade Surplus Australian PMI Reports Rebound Into Positive Territory In February Fed's Powell Backs Quarter-Point Rate Rise In March Despite War Bank Of Canada Raises Policy Rate To 0.5%, Sees More Hikes Ahead ECB's Lane: It Is Essential To Avoid Entrenched Inflation CBI See’s Many UK Services Businesses Plan Record Price Rises Euro Pinned As War Stokes Stagflation Fears, Aussie Up On Exports Cryptocurrencies Pull Back Amid Inflation And Geopolitical Risk Oil Jumps, Brent Climbs Above $116/Bbl As Supply Issues Persist China Blue Chips Fall On Slowing Services Activity GrowthThe Day Ahead The S&P 500 advanced 1.9% on Wednesday, as stocks rallied past another spike in oil prices amid hope surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a potentially less-hawkish Fed. WTI crude futures topped $110 per barrel ($110.72, +7.31, +7.1%). The Nasdaq Composite (+1.6%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.8%) both looked up to the benchmark index while the Russell 2000 outperformed with a 2.5% gain. The spike in oil prices was attributed to increased expectations for supply constraints after Russia continued its offensive in Ukraine, but the market might have suspected a near-term peak in prices, depending on the result of cease-fire talks scheduled for tomorrow. Equally as important to the trading narrative yesterday was what Fed Chair Powell told the House Financial Services Committee in his semiannual report on monetary policy.The Fed chair said the central bank would "proceed carefully" because of the geopolitical uncertainty and that he would support hiking rates by 25 basis points later this month. He went on to say, though, that a 50-bps hike is still possible in the future if inflation is higher as expected. On a related note, the Fed's Beige Book noted that economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace between mid-January and February 18. Some Districts reported a temporary weakening in demand in the hospitality sector due to increased COVID-19 cases. Treasury yields rose double-digit basis points after a two-day plunge, illustrating how negative sentiment had gotten because of the geopolitical tensions. The 2-yr yield jumped 22 basis points to 1.52%, and the 10-yr yield jumped 16 basis points to 1.87%. The U.S. Dollar Index dipped 0.1% to 97.34. Given fast-moving developments in the Ukraine conflict, today’s economic data releases will perhaps be seen as dated as they predominantly or entirely refer to activity and sentiment predating the Russian invasion. Even the ECB publication of its ‘account’ of its February monetary policy meeting has been superseded by events. Instead, the focus (aside from the war in Ukraine) will likely fall on central bank speakers, including the second day of Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress – his last chance to steer the markets before the blackout period ahead of the 15/16 March FOMC meeting. The Fed’s Barkin and Williams will also speak at separate events. This morning’s UK and Eurozone services PMIs for February are final readings and are expected to confirm preliminary ‘flash’ estimates. Services activity surprised on the upside in both jurisdictions, rising to 55.8 in the Eurozone and 60.8 in the UK, as Omicron restrictions were eased back. Price pressures remained elevated or continued to build. The US ISM services is expected to post a reading of 56.7, which would be a big jump up from 51.2 in January reflecting the easing of Covid restraints. US factory orders data for January, seen rising by 0.7%, and weekly jobless claims are also due. The Eurozone unemployment rate has already fallen below pre-pandemic levels and is forecast to have declined to 6.9% in January, the lowest since the inception of the euro. That, together with prospects of even higher energy prices, has made the ECB’s policy trade-off trickier than it was before. Even before the Ukraine crisis, inflation has been surprising on the upside, as the flash CPI rise to 5.8% yesterday attests. Today’s publication of the ‘account’ of the ECB’s last meeting in February will likely reveal a shift towards an earlier end to QE, but heightened geopolitical tensions have since complicated the picture. On balance, it seems likely the increased uncertainty in the economic outlook will now result in more caution in the move towards monetary policy normalisation.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.1075 (610M), 1.1100 (760M), 1.1120 (630M), 1.1200 (1.3B) 1.1345-50 (1.3B), 1.1355-60 (640M), 1.1370-75 (1.2B) USD/JPY: 114.00 (310M), 114.25 (475M), 114.50 (460M), 115.00 (960M) USD/JPY: 116.00 (445M). EUR/GBP: 0.8250 (430M), 0.8355-60 (300M) USD/CHF: 0.9200 (360M), 0.9300 (275M) AUD/USD: 0.7250 (890M), 0.7360 (455M). AUD/JPY: 83.40 (770M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above Eases in Asia but bids below 1.1100 limit dip EUR/USD opened 1.1119 after recovery from 22-month low at 1.1058 It traded with an offered tine in Asia and fell to 1.1090 Buyers were tipped at 1.1080/90 and it settled around 1.1105 USD was broadly bid in Asia and kept the EUR/USD heavy EUR/USD support is at the 76.4 of the 1.0636/1.2349 move at 1.1040 Resistance is at 10-day MA @ 1.1229 and break would ease downward pressure EUR/USD trending lower with the 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in a bearish alignment Trend likely to continue while Russia-Ukraine uncertainty persistsGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. -0.1% at the base of a mostly quiet 1.3380-1.3404 range with USD +0.1% Many UK services businesses plan record price rises - CBI. Inflationary pressures building across the board - Brent $116 - +2.9% Charts; momentum studies conflict, 10 & 21 day moving averages edge lower 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals suggest the base is the weak side Targets 1.3161-66 longer term, Dec 2021 low and 38.2% 2020-2021 rise Close above 1.3457 50% of the February fall would end the downside biasUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below USD/JPY remains better bid in Asia after rush up yesterday Range 115.45-67 EBS, trading relatively quiet, orderly Option expiries at 115.00, 115.05-20, 115.50, 116.00 help contain action Firmer US yields supportive, Treasury 10s @1.855% Tokyo, most of Asia risk-on, Nikkei +0.8% @26,608, E-Minis steady @4392 Risk mood could shift on a dime however, US yields too? JPY crosses mixed, up from yesterday, some bid like AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY heavy EUR/JPY 128.25-44 EBS, AUD/JPY 84.07-33, GBP/JPY bid too, 154.57-96 Japan Feb PMI-services 44.2, flash 42.7, Jan 47.6, contractingAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below 0.7250 Bullish above AUD/USD opened +0.63% at 0.7298 after risk rally and strong commodities underpinned USD broadly firmed in Asia and long AUD/USD positions pared back AUD/USD traded down to 0.7276 before finding fresh buying Strong rise in iron ore helped to support AUD/USD at the lows Heading into the afternoon AUD/USD was trading around 0.7290 Resistance is at 2022 high at 0.7314 and 0.7320/25 where 200-day MA and 61.8 fibo converge Support is @ the 10-day MA @ 0.7232 and break would suggest waning momentum AUD/USD trending higher with the 5, 10 and 21-day MAs in a bullish alignment

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Market Update – March 3 –

Stock markets mostly moved higher across Asia, but GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.14% and US futures narrowly mixed, with the USA100 underperforming, against the background of the Ukraine war. Yields jumped higher yesterday and Bund futures are little changed this morning, as are Treasury futures, while in cash markets the U.S. 10-year rate has corrected somewhat. Aluminium hits record top; Oil, wheat at multi-year highs on supply woes.  Longer-term Black Sea supply curbs lift wheat to 14-year high – Brent hit $118/barrel & Gold hit $1950/ounce. Russia’s stature as a top supplier in oil, gas, metals, grain. Russia and Ukraine also account for 19% of corn exports and 80% of exports of sunflower oil, which competes with soyoil and palm oil.

Reuters: The United States is preparing a sanctions package targeting more Russian oligarchs as well as their companies and assets, as Washington steps up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

New talks between Ukraine and Russia were reportedly slated for today. US ‘hugely important’ delivery of Stinger missiles to Ukraine hailed ‘game-changer’ – Fake News ? Politcal propaganda ? who knows

Overnight – Powell signalled a less aggressive pace of interest rate hikes than investors had feared. BoE’s Cunliffe and Tenreyro suggested that the war in Ukraine will change the outlook”  – suggested the bank remains on course to deliver further rate hikes.The banks could remain on course to remove stimulus, but will move cautiously and maintain the flexibility to step in again if necessary. BoE’s Tenreyro says Ukraine war leaves “upside surprise” on inflation, but also deliver a trade shock. China Services PMIs down; Japan consumer confidence down.

• USD – USDIndex at 97.50
• US Yields 10-yr lower was over 13 bps higher testing 1.87%.
• Equities –  Nikkei lifted 0.7%, USA500 jumped 1.86% – Energy was the best performing subsector on Nikkei (+3.2%) financials jumped 3.17%.
• USOil – Rallied to $112.00; Brent hit $118/barrel.
• Gold – steady as risk appetite improved trades at $1926; Copper at 4.76 ; Palladium at 2,721. 
• FX markets – EURUSD  at 21-month low at 1.1055, USDJPY up 115.72 and Cable down to  1.3390 now from 1.3416. USDCAD breaks  below 200-Day SMA. AUDUSD breach and breaks 200-week SMA at 0.7320.

Today – Data releases will continue to take a backseat today, but include final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the U.K. today. The account of the ECB’s last policy meeting is also due, but will already look outdated in the light of subsequent developments.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCAD (-0.36%) 6-day collapse from 1.7345 continues  down to 1.6915 now.  MAs  aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below  0 line, RSI 30 & falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 0.9450.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Silver Futures (SIK2022), H4 Bullish Continuation!

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 25.660Pivot: 24.325Support: 23.910Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 24.325 in line 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 25.660 in line with 100% Fibonacci Retracement . Our bullish bias is further supported prices trading above our ichimoku clouds .Alternative Scenario:If prices were to reverse, they can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 23.910 which is a graphical swing low and also in line with 100% Fibonacci extension .Fundamentals:Amidst highest inflation recorded for the most developed countries, we are likely to see crowds flock to safety on safe-haven assets such as precious metals, supporting a overall bullish bias. As the renewed attacks and scheduled negotiations are on the way, we would expect much volatility from the asset.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-futures-sik2022-h4-bullish-continuation2"
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GBPJPY, H4 | Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 154.47Pivot: 153.935Support: 152.656Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our descending trendline resistance. We see the potential for further dips from our Pivot at 153.935 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 152.656 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices are trading below our Ichimoku cloud resistance further supporting our bearish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb even higher towards our 1st resistance at 154.47 in line wtih 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

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