Euro mired while Ukraine war weighs on growth

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/euro-mired-while-ukraine-war-weighs-on-growth-2779809
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ESG investing: defence stocks as an ethical investment

I have been invited to a seminar titled “How does ESG continue to evolve?” I don’t need to go – I already know the answer: it will continue to evolve until one way or another it encompasses everything. Then, like everything that has tried to be all things to all men before, it will mean nothing. 

I’ve written here before about the idiocy of exclusionary investment – refusing to invest in fossil fuels and mining, for example, because they are dirty – but relying on both to drive the global economy and the energy transition. 

ESG investors (people following environmental, social and governance criteria) tend to focus so much on the environment that they forget the social – the wellbeing of our communities and the maintenance of our living standards. 

The past week has made that point pretty clearly – we are seeing the results of structural under-investment in efficient energy in oil and gas prices – there is talk of the average UK household energy bill hitting a terrifying £3,000. We have also seen it in share prices and in the way people want to invest. 

In Europe in February, notes Deutsche Bank Research, companies with “lower ESG ratings . . . fared better”. And carbon prices? No one was much interested – as gas soared, carbon saw “high single-digit declines”. 

At the same time, flows into ESG-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) weakened and investors turned to “more diversified instruments”. 

As I think you would expect, those who thought investors would be happy to lose money for their principles might have another think; prepare to hear less about green transition and more about energy security. 

Surely, defending democracy is ethical?

So what do you do if you run an ESG fund? You think about how things that are going up could perhaps be reclassified from a bit iffy to completely fine. 

Take defence: this has long been a no-no for full-on ESG funds. It’s also been a bit of a “no” for most funds with a bit of an ESG overlay – after all, jets and tanks have something of a significant carbon footprint and anything designed to frighten and kill is surely impossible to classify as a good thing.

But it isn’t so simple. Sure, if you are only selling goods to nasty dictators it’s hard to see how you could fit under E, S or G. And we wouldn’t want to buy your shares anyway, as we would worry about the G issues in your client base meaning you’d never get paid.

War is nasty, the weapons that facilitate war are nasty and buyers of those weapons aren’t always particularly steady clients. But if you supply weapons to the invaded underdog in an unprovoked fight, or to the countries backing said underdog to pass along, could we not file your activity under S as a social good? Surely.

As the Latvian deputy prime minister said this year: “Is national defence not ethical?”

The problem is that most defence companies serve both the dictators and the underdogs – and so end up in the “too hard” bucket for a lot of managers. 

The sector stayed cheap – and by the end of last year European defence stocks in particular were trading at a pretty hefty discount to the MSCI index of global shares as a whole. This dynamic has changed.

One example is Sweden’s Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken. A year ago it decided that none of the funds it runs would be allowed to touch defence stocks; last week, the Wall Street Journal reported, it changed its mind. Now six of its 100 funds can – although they will perhaps have missed the 30% rise in Saab in the past few days. Saab makes fighter jets.

You could say, it’s only six. But you could also say the principle is dead, now we are just arguing about quantum. 

A few months ago there was no way that, when the EU got around to completing its social taxonomy criteria for sustainable finance, defence would have had a hope of being considered aligned with its aims – that it makes a “substantial ESG contribution” or does “no significant harm” for example. Today it’s almost a certainty. 

Here are analysts from Citi on the matter: “Defence is likely to be increasingly seen as a necessity that facilitates ESG as an enterprise as well as maintaining peace stability and other social goods.” If something is obviously vital to maintaining peace how can it also cause social harm? 

You can also go vague – this is generally a killer strategy in the ESG world. 

 

ESG investing is almost impossible to define clearly

A press release for a new fund just crossed my desk. It’s got all the buzzwords in its name – the Climate Transition Equity fund (check the double meaning in equity… very good) – and it focuses neatly on the idea that you can divide good firms into mitigators and enablers. The former work to reduce their own emissions and the latter “provide products and services that support other companies and activities on their decarbonisation path”. 

Those launching this fund mean well, I assume, and it is perfectly clear that at launch they have in mind producers of renewable energy and carbon capture technology when they talk about enablers. But if a wind turbine manufacturer is an enabler, surely so too are the producers of rare earth metals and (whisper it quietly) coal miners (steelmaking mostly needs coal). 

See how easy it is to shuffle the goalposts out a little, should you be so minded? And how easy it is for close-to-pariah stocks to move to hero status in times of crisis? 

The key point here is that the idea that nobody – yes, even the EU – can provide a static ESG framework that both excludes some sectors or companies and works. They can’t; there is good in most listed companies (that’s how they got listed in the first place) and pretty much the only sector you can argue has no upside of any kind is tobacco (although that might not be what those living off the dividends will say).

So if you want to invest sustainably for the long term in companies that offer something to society you don’t actually need an ESG fund manager. In fact, you probably don’t want an ESG fund manager; they’ll either be too inflexible or too concerned about how to communicate their unexpected flexibility. 

You also don’t want to be in passive investments to the extent you have been in the past – as Research Affilliates’ Vitali Kalesnik points out in the latest MoneyWeek Podcast. 

In a world in which we have just been reminded that G can stand for governance at a state as well as a corporate level, you don’t want a little bit of everything (most global portfolios will have a had a small weighting to Russian equities)  you just want an unconstrained, active, focused, and thoughtful fund manager – possibly one who recognises that his clients want to be good to the planet and to the people on it, but who also remembers the 1970s and buys you a hefty position in real assets to be getting on with. 

• This article was first published in the Financial Times

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NATURALGAS(NATURALGAS) , H4 Bearish Reversal

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 432.7Pivot: 410.9Support: 374Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 410.9 which is also our previous high, Price can potentially reverse to the support level of 374 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is at resistance level. Alternative Scenario:Price continue to rally to resistance level of 432.7 which is also the graphical overlap resistance.Fundamentals:With the risk of sanctions by western countries on energy produce by Russia. Prices of natural gas may continue its climb. As fundamentals and technicals do not align , there is a risk on factor when looking at NATURALGAS

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/naturalgas-naturalgas-h4-bearish-reversal"
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Investment Bank Outlook 07-03-2022

CreditAgricole Asia overnightGeopolitics continue to rule investor sentiment. News that theG7 is looking at coordinated sanctions against Russian exports, especially oil,sent oil and other commodity prices soaring in Asia. News out of China’s NPCover the weekend that signals it will be seeking to boost growth, have also pushedcommodity prices higher. Higher commodity prices are threatening to forcecentral banks to slam on the monetary policy brakes faster than would otherwisebe the case, which is hurting sentiment. S&P500 futures and Asian bourseswere trading significantly in the red at the time of writing. In G10 FX, theoutperformers were the Antipodean currencies on the back of higher commodityprices, the JPY was supported by weaker equities, and the SEK and EUR were theunderperformers during the session.EUR: help me out to help you out The EUR is hurting becauseinvestors see it as a relatively cheap and very liquid hedge against furtherescalation of the Ukraine crisis. On the more fundamental side, since theoutbreak of the crisis, the EUR has also been stripped of any semblance of rateadvantage, as markets believe that the latest geopolitical developments wouldforce the ECB to keep its very dovish policy in place for much longer. This,coupled with the intensification of the stagflation headwinds battering theEurozone (in part, due to the crisis and the sanctions on Russia) have sent theEUR real rates and yields plummeting, adding to the misery of EUR investors.Ahead of this week’s ECB meeting, the market view is that arenewed dovish message from the Governing Council will increase the downsiderisks for the EUR. All that being said, we think that there are at least tworeasons to expect that the March policy meeting can be less dovish thanexpected and thus less negative for the EUR: (1) the stagflationary impact fromthe Ukraine crisis has rendered current ECB policies far less effective andeven counterproductive, especially given (2) that they could trigger furtheraggressive FX selloff and fuel imported inflation, without improving theEurozone financial conditions. We therefore think that the Governing Councilwill signal that the Ukraine crisis may delay but not derail its plans to exitits accommodative policy. The ECB can further consider the beneficial effect ofless negative deposit rates, coupled with asset purchases as a way to (1)stabilise the EUR and thus the imported energy inflation, (2) prop up Eurozonebank profitability and (3) keep the Eurozone financial conditions broadlysupportive.NatixisMacro Picture · Russia-Ukraine: Asia equities sharply lowerMonday as oil soared to just shy of $140 a barrel after the White House said itwas considering an embargo on Russian supplies. European natural gas hit a newrecord high (+ 17% to an unprecedented price of 225 euros per megawatt hour).·United States: excellent Employment Situation Report, with an increase innonfarm payrolls of 678 thousand in February (compared with 481 thousand inJanuary, this estimate having been revised upwards), which was way above the 423thousand Bloomberg consensus. The unemployment rate improved to 3.8% (down from4.0%). At the same time, average hourly earnings were flat in February (0% MoM,for an increase of 5.1% YoY), when the consensus had been for a 0.5% increase. · Eurozone: disappointing retail sales, with an increase of only 0.2% after a2.7% decrease in December. The high volatility displayed by retail sales is awarning against reading too much into any one monthly reading. It isconceivable, however, that the currently elevated inflation will start to weighon consumer spending.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-07-03-2022"
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SOYBEAN FUTURES (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1762'6Pivot: 1661'4Support: 1632'2Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1661'4 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1762'6 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further substantiated by prices trading above our MA cross 50 & 200, forming a golden cross.Alternative Scenario:If prices were reverse, they can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 1632'2 which is a graphical swing low and also in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and our ascending trendline.Fundamentals:No major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-bounce"
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YEN FUTURES (67!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey LevelsResistance: 0.008741Pivot: 0.00868Support: 0.008658Preferred Case:Prices are consolidating horizontally and are close to our Pivot . We see the potential for further upside from our Pivot at 0.00868 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 0.008741 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Extension , 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci expansion . Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI being on bullish momentum.Alternative Scenario:If prices were reverse, they can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 0.008658 which is a graphical swing low and also in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:The Japanese yen is expected to continue to ride its safe-haven status, with bias for additional gains despite its relatively long standing ultra-accommodative monetary policy put in place to aid the recovery of the country’s economy from the devastating impacts from the Delta variant of COVID-19. With commodities being at all time high, we expect investors to be on a look out for buy in opportunities on this safe-haven currency with its relative stability

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/yen-futures-67-h4-potential-for-bullish-bounce"
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DOW JONES(YM1!!), H4 Potential For Bearish Dip

Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 34041Pivot: 33144Support: 32307Preferred Case:Price is at our pivot level of 33144 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 50% Fibonacci retracement. We are expecting a breakout at pivot and a potentially dip to our 1st support level of 32307 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the Ichimoku cloud indicator.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may head for our 1st resistance level of34041 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci projection.Fundamentals:With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine tension, we can expect to see bearishness in the US indices.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dow-jones-ym1-h4-potential-for-bearish-dip"
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NASDAQ(NQ1!), H4 Potential For Bearish Dip

Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 14006Pivot: 13672Support: 13085Preferred Case:Price is near pivot level of 14006 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance. Price can potentially dip to the support level of 13085 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the Ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and head for our 1st resistance level of 14006 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance Fundamentals: With the ongoing Russia- Ukraine tension, we can expect to see bearishness in the US indices.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nasdaq-nq1-h4-potential-for-bearish-dip7"
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Daily Market Outlook, March 7, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, March 7, 2022 Overnight Headlines US Weighs Acting Without Allies On Ban Of Russian Oil Imports US, Venezuela Discuss Ease Of Sanctions, Scant Progress Made President Biden Advisers Weigh Saudi Arabia Trip For More Oil Congress To Explore Russian Oil Ban, Enact $10Bln Ukraine Aid US To Begin Review Of Tariffs On $300 Billion Of China Imports China Sets Lowest Growth Target In 30 Years As Fallout Looms China Report Most New Daily Covid Cases In Over Two Months Russia Demands US Guarantees Over Iran Nuclear Deal Revival Poll: ECB To Wait Until Q4 To Raise Rates As Inflation Rampant UK Mulls An Instant Asset Freeze On Russians Facing Sanctions UK Defence Chief: Putin Forces In Ukraine War Are Decimated Commodities Rack Up Stunning Gains As Supply Fears DeepenThe Week Ahead Uncertainty surrounding the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict will ensure markets remain volatile in the week ahead. The events will also feature prominently at the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday.The conflict threatens to drag on and there is little clarity regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin's endgame. Complicating the investor landscape are the ramifications of the conflict and growing number of sanctions placed on Russia by the West Traders will keep a close eye on soaring energy costs and the blowback on Western, especially European, banks from financial sanctions on Russian entities. The ECB meets on Thursday as the euro zone economy is being threatened by stagflationary forces, with energy prices soaring and the Russia-Ukraine conflict set to weigh on growth.The ECB is expected to remain on hold and the conflict will likely prevent it from signalling a rate hike is on the cards in the coming months. President Christine Lagarde's comments will be scrutinised for any hint of a dovish pivot in the ECB outlookCFTC Data CFTC positioning data released Friday showed a decline in USD bullish sentiment despite elevated market anxiety owing to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Across the currencies that we cover, investors trimmed the aggregate USD long position by USD1.1bn to total USD5.1bn as of Tuesday, its lowest point since mid-August. The weekly adjustment against the dollar compares to similar moves of USD1.0bn and USD1.3bn in the previous two weeks. With the EUR sliding through 1.12 on the downside, investors increased their short EUR holdings the most since November but simultaneously placed increased longs the most since August. On net, then, the aggregate EUR bullish position rose by USD635mn to total USD9bn, an eight-month-high. The EUR’s 1.8% decline over the period made it the second worst performing currency of those in this report, following the GBP’s decline of 1.9%. Losses for the EUR to an eventual decline under 1.09 have followed and positive drivers are limited, so the possibility of further downside may see investors trim the overall bullish position in next week’s data, particularly ahead of a dovish ECB decision on Thursday given the risks posed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sterling positioning is now sitting at ‘neutral’ as accounts reduced the aggregate net GBP short by USD465mn to -USD28mn; here, total shorts were practically unchanged while an increase in longs did the heavy lifting. Bullish positioning in the CAD climbed above the USD1bn mark on the back of a USD385mn move in its favour on the balance of geopolitical risks and stronger crude oil prices in the lead up to the BoC’s policy decision on Wednesday, where it delivered a widely expected 25bps rate increase. Its crude oil peer, the MXN, also saw its net long climb above the billion mark thanks to USD611mn increase owing to a large reduction in shorts. The AUD and NZD led the majors over the week, with respective gains of 0.5% and 0.3%, but only the AUD saw a reduction in its net short while the NZD short widened to near the USD1bn mark. The AUD short fell by USD389mn to a still large negative position of USD5.7bn, as it benefited from strong commodity prices and a slightly hawkish change of tone from the RBA on Tuesday. The NZD short climbed by USD180mn to USD957mn. Despite the risk-off mood in markets, investors added to the large CHF and JPY shorts, evidencing limited signs of haven-seeking activity (as far as positioning goes, at least). The CHF’s net short climbed by USD585mn to USD2.1bn as investors likely positioned against the currency given its greater exposure to geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe (outstanding shorts at a 14-week high). Negative JPY positioning rose by USD613mn as the increase in long contracts was only about two-fifths of the increase in short contracts.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.0900 (357M), 1.1100 (496M), 1.1150 (457M) 1.1160-65 (460M), 1.1175-80 (913M), 1.1210 (368M) 1.1250 (788M) USD/JPY: 114.20-30 (890M), 114.40-50 (405M) 115.00-10 (817M) GBP/USD: 1.3000 (420M), 1.3350 (201M) EUR/GBP: 0.8230-35 (600M), 0.8300 (340M) USD/CAD: 1.2715-20 (330M). AUD/USD: 0.7325-30 (515M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above As of Mar 1 EUR/USD traders were still increasing bets the pair would rise EUR/USD dropped to 1.1090 on Mar 1 and has since dropped to 1.0822 EBS The reason the pair hasn't collapsed is because it is technically oversold Traders have been buying EUR/USD since SNB resumed intervention last Nov It seems downtrend's pause resulting from SNB action was misinterpreted The oversold situation may slow EUR/USD or may lead to a minor bounce Pressure builds as rising oil threatens EZ economy EUR/USD opened 1.0967 after falling 1.20% Friday on outflows sparked by Ukraine war Brent crude gapped 10% higher in Asia on reports US and EU considering Russian oil band EUR/USD plunged below 1.0900 and EUR sold off against JPY, CHF and AUD EUR/USD fell to 1.0822 before settling above 1.0855 into the afternoon The EUR/AUD cross was down 2% at one stage after falling nearly 5% last week There isn't any solid support for the EUR/USD ahead of the 2022 low @ 1.0636 Resistance at former support @ 1.1040 and sellers are tipped ahead of 1.1000 EZ stagflation concerns may force ECB into dovish pivot this weekGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Heavy and busy, as oil jump fuels inflation fears -0.25%, surging oil, Brent $127.59 +8% hit risk appetite, E-mini S&P -1.6% EUR/GBP -0.4% - Ukraine invasion shows no sign of compromise Cable trades toward base of a 1.3187-1.3267 range with heavy flow Charts; momentum studies, 5 10 & 21 day moving averages head lower 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals suggest the base is the weak side Targets major 1.3161-66 support, December 2021 low and 38.2% 2020-2021 rise Sustained 1.3150 break opens the door to 1.2831, 50% 2020-2021 climb Close above the falling 1.3384 10 day moving average would end downside biasUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below USD/JPY sees some bounce but upside limited with risk very much off Asia 114.77-115.16 EBS, mostly around 114.90, Japanese bids still on dips Holding mostly above top of 114.44-74 daily Ichi cloud, 100-DMA 114.47 Risk very much off in Asia, Nikkei -3.2% @25,166, Russia-Ukraine in focus US yields off sharply too, Treasury 10s @1.691%, lowest since January 5 Option expiries help contain action again, large 114.20-50 and 115.00-10 EUR/JPY off another leg, Asia 125.60 to 124.41 EBS, more downside eyed GBP/JPY 151.43-152.13, heavy, AUD/JPY bid, 84.40 to 85.50 before easing back Japan end-Feb foreign reserves down some from end-JanAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7100 Bearish below Moves higher as rising commodities and EZ outflows support AUD/USD opened 0.7375 after rising 0.57% Friday due to rise in commodities It dipped to 0.7355 when E-minis opened 1% lower but dis was short lived Brent crude futures soared 10% higher and AUD/USD spiked to 0.7390/95 EUR/AUD selling added further support as the cross fell close to 1.5% AUD/USD stops were triggered to 0.74440 at one stage before sellers returned The AUD/USD was overbought and it eased back to 0.7405/10 into the afternoon AUD benefiting from rise in energy and geographic distance from Europe EUR/AUD has fallen close to 10% since the start of Feb AUD/USD support is @ 200-day MA @ 0.7323 & break would ease upward pressure There isn't any resistance of note until the Oct 28 high at 0.7555

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-march-7-2022"
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AUDJPY, H4 | Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 85.779Pivot: 94.934 Support: 84.559Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 94.934 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 85.779 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 84.559 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audjpy-h4-or-bullish-bounce7"
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BTCUSD, H4 I Potential Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 41572Pivot: 39606Support: 34413Preferred Case:On the H4, with price currently moving below the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will drop to our support at 34413 in line with the swing low support and 100% Fibonacci projection from our pivot at 39606 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot and head for 1st resistance at 41572 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-i-potential-bearish-drop"
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ETHUSD, H4 | Potential Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 2667Pivot: 2589 Support: 2303Preferred Case:On the H4, with price currently moving below the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will drop to our support at 2303 in line with the swing low support and 161.8% Fibonacci extension from our pivot at 2589 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot and head for 1st resistance at 2667 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-h4-or-potential-bearish-drop"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential For Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 115.143Pivot: 114.638Support: 114.638Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 114.638 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 115.143 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Ichimoku is forecasting the bullish move.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may break our pivot at 114.638 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 114.388.

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Russia warns sovereign bond holders that payments depend on sanctions

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