Market Update – March 9

Jitters over the war and and the imposition of harsher sanctions on Russia continue to roil the markets. The shortages of key commodities are boosting prices to record highs. In fact the 250% surge in nickel over the past two sessions broke the market and caused the LME to halt trading until Friday. President Biden was pressured into banning US imports of oil, gas, and coal, further adding to the supply crunch and exacerbating inflation fears.  Those concerns overshadowed the recent flight to safety and pushed rates higher. The market is also looking toward rate liftoff next week.

• Foreign ministers from both countries are set to meet in Turkey tomorrow, the same day the ECB meets and the EU leaders summit starts. Plans for a drawn out exit from the reliance on Russian energy imports? – pressure on the ECB to continue its asset purchase program?
• The UK followed US with an oil ban (not gas), though to be phased in over months. Scholz said the EU had no choice but to continue with imports.
• Norway’s sovereign wealth fund – the world’s largest – is to snub a Chinese apparel firm raising human rights issues.
• JPY GDP missed (1.1% vs 1.4%) & Chinese Inflation dipped but remained hot – (CPI 0.9%, PPI 8.8% down from 9.1%). RBA’s Lowe said the economy is expected to expand further in Q1
• USD steady (USDIndex 99.00).
• US Yields is up 1.0 bp at 1.86% and it seems core EGB yields in particular are set to continue to jump higher.
• Equities – CSI 100 and Hang Seng down -1.5% and -1.8% respectively, while the JPN225 has corrected -0.30%, and the ASX actually managed to climb 1.0%. USA500 dropped -0.72%, with the USA30 tumbling -0.56% and the USA100 off -0.28%.
• USOil – steady at $120-122 after it had shot up over $129.00/ bbl.
• Gold – Rallied to $2070. Currently  at  $2042.
• Bitcoin 7% up – trades at $41,383. – US Treasury statement allayed market worries about a sudden tightening of US rules around digital assets.
• FX markets – EURUSD higher at 1.0929, USDJPY extends to 115.90 and Cable unchanged to 1.3080.    

Today – Today’s calendar is limited and will not distract from the focus on Ukraine. For data, January JOLTS job openings data are due, Weekly MBA mortgage and oil inventory figures are also on tap. The Treasury auctions $34 bln of reopened 10-year notes.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) ETHUSD (+7.30%) Spiked to 2742, breaking R2. R3 is at 2767. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram steady northwards, RSI 5774 but flat, all implying a short term positive bias. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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GBPJPY, H4 I Potential Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 153.268Pivot: 152.599Support: : 151.017Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below our Ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will dip to the 1st support level of 151.017 in line with swing low support from our pivot of 152.599 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break our pivot and head for 1st resistance at 153.268 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

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ETHUSD, H4 I Potential Bearish Drop!

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 2829Pivot: 2671Support: 2281Preferred Case:On the H4,with price moving below the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 2281 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support from our pivot at 2671 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot and head for 1st resistance at 2829 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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EURJPY H4, Potential For Further Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 127.793Pivot: 127.267Support: 124.556Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 127.267 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 124.556 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading below our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bearish view.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, if prices may climb further towards our 1st resistance at 127.793 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

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Unloved euro catches a breath ahead of ECB

from Forex News https://www.investing.com/news/economy/unloved-euro-catches-a-breath-ahead-of-ecb-2780763
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ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 163'18Pivot: 159'16Support: 157'24Preferred Case:With price moving above the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise from our pivot of 127'25 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance of 129'00 which is also the graphical swing high resistance. Alternative Scenario:Price may dip to the support level of 127'00 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection level.Fundamentals:With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.

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SOYBEAN FUTURES (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1751'4Pivot: 1639'6Support: 1581'4Preferred Case:With price moving above the Ichimoku cloud, we see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1639'6 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1751'4 in line with horizontal swing high resistance. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 1581'4 which is a graphical swing low and also in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals:No major news

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Corn ( ZC1!) , H4 Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 782'4Pivot: 719'0Support: 705'6Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 719'0 in line with horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 782'4 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension . Our bullish bias is supported by how price is moving above the Ichimoku cloud.Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 705'6 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals: No major news event.

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NASDAQ(NQ1!), H4 Potential For Bearish Dip

Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 13946Pivot: 13484 Support: 12294Preferred Case:Price is near pivot level of 13484 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance. Price can potentially dip to the support level of 12294 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the Ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and head for our 1st resistance level of 13946 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance Fundamentals: With the ongoing Russia- Ukraine tension, we can expect to see bearishness in the US indices.

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Daily Market Outlook, March 8, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, March 8, 2022 Overnight Headlines Morgan Stanley Back Cautious Fed Hike As Inflation Fuelled Russia Strikes Civilian Targets As Talks Make Little Progress Russia Warn Of $300 Per Oil Barrel, Cut To EU Gas Supplies Key US Lawmakers Strike Agreement To Ban Russian Crude US Congress Nears Deal To Aid Ukraine, Fund Government Biden To Sign Crypto Order, Firms Face Sanctions Pressure Iran Negotiator Leaves Vienna As Nuclear Talks Hit Standstill EU Aim Cut Russia Gas Dependence By Near 80% This Year UK Back Plan To Harden Sanctions Powers, Moves To Lords UK Face Biggest Income Squeeze Since 1970s Over Ukraine JPMorgan Boots Russian Debt Widely Tracked Bond Indices OPEC's Barkindo: No Control Over Events Roiling Oil MarketThe Day Ahead Asian stock markets are down sharply this morning as the global slide in equities continues. The Brent crude oil price is hovering close to $127bbl, around 25% higher than a week ago, and gas prices on some measures are around 80% higher. Reports indicate that US lawmakers have reached the outline of a deal to ban imports of Russian oil and are calling on allies to follow suit. The British Retail Consortium’s measure of sales showed 6.7% annual sales in February down from 11.9% in January. Annual comparisons were flattered by last year’s lockdown measures, but reports suggest that the figures point to a decline in monthly volumes. German industrial production rose by a higher-then-expected 2.7% in January. There seems to be nothing in today’s data calendar that is likely to distract market attention away from developments in Ukraine. The primary focus right now is probably on the very sharp further rise in energy prices seen in recent days. The big question is whether central banks will primarily see this as a further indication of inflationary pressures that needs to be responded to with tighter monetary policy or as an escalation of the downside risks for economic growth. Policymakers at the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are both in their blackout periods ahead of their latest monetary policy updates and that will also be true for the Bank of England after today. Therefore we will not get an immediate reaction to recent developments from any of them. Today’s Eurozone Q4 2021 GDP release is an update. An upward revision to German growth suggests that the outturn for the Eurozone will also be revised up to 0.4% from the original 0.3% estimate. Nevertheless, that still leaves the pace well below that in the previous two quarters. The easing of Omicron restrictions should provide a support in Q1 2022 but after that the outlook currently looks uncertain. In the US, the NFIB small business optimism index for February will provide an update on how that sector is being impacted by supply restrictions. Already released results for some components painted a mixed picture of the labour market in February. On the one hand employers are still finding vacancies hard to fill. However, both hiring plans and plans for wage increases were both scaled back. The second reading for Japanese Q4 GDP is expected to be revised up modestly due to a bigger boost from private sector investment. Meanwhile, Chinese inflation data, to be released early Wednesday, are forecast to show annual CPI inflation still running at a low level. However, producer price inflation is more elevated, and it could be given a further lift in coming months by the recent rise in commodity prices. G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) USDJPY - 116.60/70 459m. 114.00 774m. EURUSD - 1.1550/60 994m. 1.1130/40 546m. 1.1100 730m. 1.1010/20 536m. 1.0990/1.1000 1.94bn (1.75bn P). GBPUSD - 1.3350/60 550m. AUDUSD - 0.7350/60 632m. 0.7260/70 740m. 0.7240/50 677m. NZDUSD - 0.6650 683m. USDCAD - 1.2600 410m. EURGBP - 0.8510 434m. 0.8430 437m. USDCHF - 0.9340 400m. 0.9300 400m. 0.9210/20 860m. EURSEK - 10.39 580m. USDCNH - 6.45 400m. 6.38 705m. 6.35 460m. 6.30 470m. 6.29 400m.Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above Modest recovery continues in Asia as shorts pare back EUR/USD opened -0.73% at 1.0853 - but off the intraday low at 1.0806 Asian markets steadied and EUR/USD edged higher after trading 1.0849 early EUR/USD traded as high as 1.0885 and was around 1.0875 into the afternoon Pair was oversold and modest rebound due mostly to short-covering It is still trending lower with 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in a bearish alignment Only a break above 10-day MA at 1.1095 would suggest waning momentum Resistance is at Monday's 1.0967 high as break ends 11 days of lower highs Bids are tipped ahead or 1.0800 and a break below targets 1.0636GBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Overextended, but trend is strong, risk appetite key +0.1%, towards the top of a 1.3102-1.3119 range with steady flow UK consumer spending rises sharply in February... Spending rise on end of lockdowns - inflation to hit hard in coming months Charts; momentum studies, 5 10 & 21 daily and weekly moving averages fall 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals suggest downtrend remains strong Trades at levels unseen since Dec 2020, targets 1.2831, 50% 2020-2021 climb Close above the falling 1.3327 10 day moving average would end downside bias Oversold short term - suggests selling strength rather than breaksUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below USD/JPY still heavy above 115.50, more offers to 116 USD/JPY better bid in late Tokyo trading, to 115.54 fresh high of day Low very early in Asia 115.24, bids trail down from area Japanese importers especially good buyers on dips Word is some specs also covering shorts into today's Tokyo close Exporters still topside but in no very large way Reports of some players buying 116 USD calls on bank recommendations Ukraine, risk-off mood to help cap upside despite perkier US yields Nikkei closes -1.7% on day at 24,790.95, AXJ, E-Minis all in redAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7100 Bearish below AUD/USD looks precarious after reversing opening rally AUD/USD slides below close to 0.7290 from day-high 0.7347 Turnaround tentatively breaks stride with higher oil prices WTI came off 1.0% early Tues on OPEC meet, but last up 1.7% OPEC met with US shale execs but no help forthcoming AUD/USD falls back under 200 DMA - capping at 0.7320 Has also dropped below 61.8% Fibo resistance 0.7340 If 0.7292 base of Bollinger uptrend channel fails, downside exposed

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Market Update – March 8 – Commodities Parabolic Rally continues

Instability from the war and the uncertainties over the global impacts made pricing extremely difficult, especially considering the extent of the moves over the last couple of weeks.

Markets are positioning for a series of rate hikes to deal with the spike in commodity prices, while in the Eurozone, there is lingering speculation that the war in Ukraine and stagflation risks will prevent the ECB from a commitment to a phasing out of net asset purchases. Bonds as well as stock markets remained under pressure, as the Ukraine war is fuelling stagflation fears. The June 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are firmly in the red once again, while the US cash rate has lifted 1.0 bp to 1.78%. The JPN225 is down -1.7%, with hefty losses of -3.62% on the USA100, -2.95% on the USA500, and -2.37% on the USA30. Oil is still trading at $120.00 after the wider jump in  $126.30 – commodity prices will not just push up cost of living expenses but also weigh on production in sectors reliant on ready and cheap energy supply.

• USD (USDIndex 99.31). Steady at 6-year highs. 
• US Yields 10-yr upup 1.2 bp at 1.785% – The JGB rate is up 1.0 bp at 0.150%.
• Equities – USA500 FUTS down at 4168 now.  
• USOil – Rallied to $126.30, yesterday, $119.70 now. – The prospect of a ban on oil imports from Russia triggered investor fears over inflation and slowing economic growth.
• Gold – Rallied to $2020 earlier, $2018.30 now.
• Bitcoin trades at $38,350.
• Nickel ar new record highs – more than doubled today to cross the $100,000-a-tonne level for the first time ever, as tension in eastern Europe showed no signs of cooling and growing sanctions against Russia fuelled fears of a disruption in supply. – Russia supplies the world with about 10% of its nickel needs, mainly for use in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries.
• Palladium surged to a new peak too. Wheat has paced the rise in key commodities since the invasion, having soared 52%. It surged 5.4% to a new high of $13.63 a bushel but finished down -7% at $12.02.
• FX markets – EURUSD at 22-month low, 1.0847, USDJPY holds 115.50 and Cable down to  1.3080 now.    

Overnight: Japan to its biggest current account deficit since 2014 in January. President Joe Biden’s administration is willing to move ahead with a U.S. ban on Russian oil imports even if European allies do not, Reuters reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. Crude has already hit 14-year highs and Russia warned that prices could surge to $300 a barrel and it might close the main gas pipeline to Germany if the West halts oil imports over the invasion of Ukraine. Germany has rejected plans to ban energy imports. The biggest buyer of Russian crude oil is accelerating plans to expand its use of alternative energy sources but cannot halt imports of Russian energy overnight, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday.

Today – EU Q4 GDP, US Trade, wholesale trade, and the NFIB small business optimism index and Japanese Q4 GDP.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Palladium (+7.52%) Spiked to 3200 again recovering from 2810 lows last night. Currently, MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram steady at 0 line, RSI 57 but pointing lower, all impliying to a short term potential correction lower. H1 ATR 56.87, Daily ATR 215.19.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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ASX, H4 I Potential Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 7145Pivot: 7064Support: 6933Preferred Case:With price moving below the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 6933 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low support from our pivot at 7064 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance. Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot and head for 1st resistance at 7145 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

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Barrick Gold: Testing Key Level

Barrick Gold (#BarrickGold) is a Canadian-based company founded in 1983 which focuses on the production and sales of gold and copper, exploration activities and mine development. The company has 16 operating sites in 13 countries and operates 5 of the 10 largest gold mines in the world.

Fig 1：Comparison Chart: VanEck Gold Miners ETF vs. Barrick Gold。: Investopedia

Barrick Gold has outperformed the gold stocks which are represented by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF since late January this year, with YTD gains of +15.07% versus the latter at +7.07%. This outstanding result has been driven by the company’s solid fundamentals. As stated in its latest earnings report, total production in 2021 was on par with guidance for the third successive year. It has a long record of exploration success and a high quality target pipeline which contributed to its ability to stand out from peers. In the report, Barrick Gold announced a $1B share buyback and dividend increment by 11% to $0.10/share, suggesting the company has attractive financial stance.

The heightened geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine also serves as another positive catalyst. Economic sanctions are further disrupting supply chains, adding more pressures to already heightened prices and thus driving the inflation rate higher – a desirable condition for more money flowing into the gold market and related companies to hedge against inflation.

Fig.2: US Non-Farm Payrolls. Source ： Trading Economics

The latest non-farm payroll (NFP) reported an increase of 678k jobs, the largest gain since July last year. The overall employment is 2.1 million  (or -1.4%) below the pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. Unemployment ticked lower to 3.8% (or 6.3 million, about 600k above the pre-pandemic levels). Despite wages growth (5.1% y/y) lagging market expectations, it should not affect the Fed’s decision to raise rates by 25 bp later this month.  Even more, based on the Fedwatch data, probability for a rate hike has increased to 98.8% (was 94.9% before NFP). The Fed’s decision may temporarily suppress the bullish momentum of the safe-haven asset due to the price-in effect, however the inflation problem is not  going to be cooled any sooner. As rising prices continue to erode consumers’ purchasing power, they may seek gold as a strategic hedge, thus benefiting companies like Barrick Gold.

Technical Analysis :

Last December, #BarrickGold found support at $17.26, the lowest level since March 2020. It extended its bullish thrust after breaking the $20.55-$21.40 zone, which is also the neckline of a double bottom pattern. The company’s share price is currently testing resistance $24.00-$24.25. If a breakout is successful, the highest point of 2021 ($25.36) will be the next target, followed by $25.90 (FR 61.8% extended from the high in August 2020 to the low in December 2021). On the other hand, a strong retrace from the key level would bring the first support $22.60 into test (FR 38.2%), followed by the neckline zone $20.55-$21.40 and the 100-SMA.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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CHFJPY, H4 | Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 125.395Pivot: 124.249Support: 124.046Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce form our Pivot at 124.249 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 125.395 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. prices are trading above our Ichimoku cloud support, further supporting our bullish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 124.046 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement.

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