Friday, March 11, 2022

Minster Mill: a riverside break in Oxfordshire

Oxfordshire is home to several charming market towns that are full of character and history. Perhaps the most distinctive is Witney. It lies on the edge of the Cotswolds, only eight miles from the village of Charlbury, and 12 from Oxford, both of which have trains to London. For hundreds of years Witney took advantage of its position on the River Windrush (from which the SS Empire Windrush took its name) to become famous for its wool industry, especially its blankets and mops. Indeed, during the 18th and 19th centuries nearly every ship in the Royal Navy contained a mop made there.

The prosperity that the wool trade brought to the town funded Witney’s distinctive architecture, as well as the Witney Blanket Hall, one of the key tourist attractions. Built in 1721, the hall originally functioned as both a weighing centre and a place for important public meetings. Today, it doubles as a fascinating industrial museum and a shop selling locally made woollen goods, ciders and pies. The museum Cogges Manor Farm, which appeared in the hit television series Downton Abbey as Yew Tree Farm, is only a ten-minute walk away.

Ruins of Minster Lovell Hall

© Matthew Partridge

Just two miles outside Witney is the village of Minster Lovell, which contains the ruined manor Minster Lovell Hall, which was originally built in the 15th century for William, Baron of Lovell and Holand, at that time one of the richest men in England. However, it was abandoned and partially demolished in the 18th century after its last owner, the First Earl of Leicester, moved to a much larger country house in Norfolk. While only fragments of the exterior of the fine hall, tower and dovecote remain, they are enough to give you a good idea of what the hall would have looked like in its heyday.

Two great boutique hotels

In addition to Minster Lovell Hall, Minster Lovell is the location for two great boutique hotels: Minster Mill, which lies on the banks of the River Windrush amid 60 acres of gardens, and its sister hotel The Swan, which is just next door. The Andrew Brownsword Group of luxury hotels has owned both since 2016. The 38-bedroom Minster Mill is a modern luxury boutique; The Swan has a more relaxed country inn vibe, and has 15 rooms. 

Minster Mills also has spa facilities – after being roasted in the rock sauna and boiled to perfection in the steam room, I was grateful for the ice fountain as well as the chance to cool down in the two showers that aim to emulate the experience of a tropical rainforest. I then took an invigorating dip in the indoor pool (which contains whirlpool-style jets), before snoozing on the nearby loungers. For those who are a bit more adventurous, the spa offers you the chance to book a range of individual treatments, including Rasul Mud Therapy.

By the time I had finished, it was time to taste the delights of Minster Mill’s restaurant, which is run by experienced chef Joshua Brimmell. The menu varies, but my meal included a selection of sourdough bread, followed by torched chalk stream trout with celeriac, Granny Smith apple, horseradish and oyster buttermilk and dill. This was followed by roast halibut with king cabbage, Jerusalem artichoke, pickled lemon and roast chicken jus. For desert it was dark chocolate fondant with roast pear and miso caramel ice cream. Then it was time to retire to a spacious junior suite for a comfortable night’s rest, waking up to a striking view of the river.

Minster Mill’s attractions are not just limited to its interiors. Not only is it the starting point for some great country walks, but the hotel also has a mile of fishing rights (although you will need to buy a licence), as well as a giant chess set, and croquet, badminton and boules facilities. The staff are happy to put you in touch with long-standing local providers if you want angling lessons, or to arrange other activities, such as horse riding – or even a lesson on how to throw axes. The hotel is also frequently used as a venue for wedding celebrations, accommodating up to 120 wedding guests, or for business gatherings of up to 200 people.

Matthew was a guest at Minster Mill. Double rooms start from £167 per room, with two sharing, including breakfast. Current offers include a “Spring Fling” package, available for stays on selected dates until 31 May 2022 and including an overnight stay, three-course meal and full English and continental breakfast from just £290 per room, per night. Contact minstermill.co.uk



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Wine of the week: a tremendously juicy and spicy fellow

2019 Bila-Haut, M. Chapoutier, Côtes du Roussillon Villages, France

£12.25, Kenrick’s, kenrickswines.com, 07311-020125

I love high-quality, independent wine retailers, which is not surprising because this métier is in my blood. I started working in the wine business in 1987 in a brilliant indie in southwest London, and I was fortunate to learn from one of the finest palates in the country.

The independent wine merchant, the butcher, baker, cheesemonger and other genuinely passionate and knowledgeable small businesses form the heart of the community. I spotted a new arrival in Fulham last year, and I finally managed to pop in last week in mystery shopper mode, and what a treat it was. I earwigged the manager talking to another customer through a couple of wines, and it was clear he knew each inside out. I bought five bottles and each was a delight.

My featured hearty red is a tremendously juicy and spicy fellow with a wicked price tag. In addition, 2020 First Flight Syrah Graeme & Julie Bott (£28.65) is a spectacular Côte-Rôtie taste-alike; 2019 Cline Old Vine Zinfandel (£15.50) is a fragrant, aromatic, super-juicy zin with masses of charm and a liquid velvet texture; and the 2020 Laureatus Albariño Rías Baixas (£16.30) shows what this beguiling white grape can do when you trade up from a ten quid high-street wine to a genuine, artisanal creation.

The 2019 Domaine Mas Barrau, Cabernet Franc (£10.45) is a bargain-priced, organic beauty, pulsing with energy and style. Kenrick’s is a magnificent addition to the wine skyline and I urge you to load up.

Matthew Jukes is a winner of the International Wine & Spirit Competition’s Communicator of the Year (MatthewJukes.com)



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Market Update – March 11

US CPI to a fresh 40-year peak, and the hawkish slant from the ECB for which the markets were nor fully prepared. Risk off pervails with Asian stocks mostly sold off, after a largely weaker close on Wall Street. Japanese indexes underperformed and the Nikkei lost -2.1%, while the ASX was down -0.9% at the close. The Hang Seng corrected -1.6%, weighed down by tech stocks after the US flagged five Chinese firms that could be delisted. Oil dived to 101.25 amid escalating bans on Russian oil. President Biden will call for an end of normal trade relations with Russia. US & G7 allies to move today to strip Russia of ‘most favored nation‘ status.

  • USD (USDIndex 98.63) steady below 99.40 highs.
  • US Yields 10-yr cheapened 6 bps to the 2.00% area. The 2-year rate was at 1.715%. The wi 30-year tested 2.40% prior to the sale but closed around 2.38%.  
  • EquitiesUSA100 closed with a -0.95% decline, while the USA500 and Dow were down -0.43% and -0.34%, respectively.
  • USOil – dips to $101.25 but up to $105.09 now. Set at its biggest weekly drops since November.
  • Gold – lower  as US Treasury yields gained overnight on red-hot inflation data. Currently at $1990.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back below 1.1000, USDJPY at 5-year tops at 116.79 and Cable languishedat 1.3093 near a 16 month-low.   

European Open – Eurozone bond yields spiked and spreads widened in the wake of the ECB announcement yesterday, which confirmed the ECB’s path to policy normalisation. Net asset purchases are set to be scaled back through the second quarter and likely to end in Q3, and while that paves the way for rate hikes in Q4, the ECB made clear that rate moves will depend on geopolitical developments. The Ukraine war has left the growth outlook with clear risks to the downside and the inflation outlook with considerable upside risks, which complicates the matter, but is is clear that for now the ECB remains determined to phase out stimulus as inflation is unlikely to undershoot target in the medium term.

Overnight:  Japanese real spending dropped -1.2% in January, following the 0.2% bounce in December.German February HICP inflation was confirmed at 5.5% y/y, rising from 5.1% y/y in the previous month. UK monthly GDP stronger than anticipated. The economy expanded 0.8% m/m in January,

Today – With the focus firmly on the Ukraine war, data releases continue to take a back seat, but for what it is worth, today brings Canadian Labor data.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.51%) Rallied to January 2017 highs, to 116.79. MAs pointing right, MACD signal line & histogram hold well above 0 line, RSI 76 & flat, all impliying to near term consolidation but overall strong positive bias.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.



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Thursday, March 10, 2022

Soybean futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1729'0Pivot: 1668'0Support: 1650'4Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and consolidating in a potential triangle. With price moving above the Ichimoku cloud, we see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1668'0 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1729'0 in line with horizontal swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci Projection. Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 1650'4 which is a graphical swing low and also in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals:No major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-bounce10"
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Cotton Futures (CT!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 119.07Pivot: 116.76Support: 116.07Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 116.76 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 119.07 in line which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI being on bullish momentum.Alternative Scenario:If prices were to reverse, they can potentially climb towards our 1st support at 116.07 which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection.Fundamentals: No major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cotton-futures-ct-h4-potential-for-bullish-bounce"
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DXY, H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 98.967Pivot: 97.854 Support: 97.464Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for bullish continuation from our Pivot at 97.854 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci Projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 98.967 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Prices are trading above our ichimoku cloud support, further supporting our bullish bias.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 97.464 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci Projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dxy-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential For Bearish Reaction

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 116.503Pivot: 116.338Support: 115.935Preferred Case:Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a pullback from our Pivot at 116.338 which is a graphical overlap towards our 1st support at 115.935 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb higher towards our 1st resistance at 116.503 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 161.8% Fibonacci Projection.

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Daily Market Outlook, March 10, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, March 10, 2022 Overnight Headlines White House Tells Oil Industry ‘Need More’ As Fuel Prices Soar US House Vote To Ban Russian Oil Imports In Bipartisan Uproar Ukraine Aid Package Passes House With Call For More Needed US Commerce Sec Warn China Firms Avoiding Russia Sanctions Iran Nuclear Revival Stagger Over Unresolved Russian Demand Russian Delegation At Ukraine Talks Will Not Concede Anything US Warn Russia Could Use Bioweapons In False-Flag Operation UK Salaries Surge Persists As Competition For Staff Slips Higher UAE Notes Committed To OPEC+ Pact And Monthly Mechanism Amazon Jumps Over Plan To Split Stock, Buy Back Up To $10Bln VW Warn Damage From War Risks To Be Worse Than PandemicThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets rallied, taking their cues from yesterday’s strong rebound in the US and Europe as investors assess the economic impact of the conflict in Ukraine. Japan’s Nikkei index has risen by nearly 4%. Commodity prices have fallen back, with the decline in Brent crude oil (reaching a low of $105 a barrel yesterday) helped by speculation that major producers could increase output. The focus today, in addition to developments in the Ukraine war, will be on the ECB’s policy announcement and US CPI inflation figures. Prior to the invasion of the country, it seemed that upside surprises to Eurozone inflation (currently 5.8%) would result in the ECB announcing an end to net asset purchases later this year. However, increased economic uncertainties are expected to lead to greater policy caution. New ECB economic projections accompanying today’s policy update will show significantly higher near-term inflation than previously forecast, but the key question is whether inflation will still be expected to fall back to or below the 2% target in 2023 and 2024. Growth this year (previously seen at 4.2%) is likely to be downgraded and, arguably, weaker economic momentum should dampen medium-term inflation pressures. Given heightened uncertainties about the outlook for both growth and inflation, the most likely outcome is that the ECB dials back on its previous hints of a possible end to net asset purchases this year (and a rise in interest rates shortly after). Instead, we expect it to maintain that net asset purchases will continue through the year with no explicit end date for now. The ECB will be looking to maximise policy flexibility and to buy time until perhaps the June meeting when the economic outlook might be less clouded by the fog of war. In the US, expect headline annual CPI inflation to increase to 7.9% from 7.5%. It is now set to peak above 8%, a level that was last exceeded in 1982. That maintains the pressure for interest rates to rise, although the impact of the terrible events in Ukraine has instilled a degree of caution. Fed Chair Powell recently signalled a gradual pace of tightening, although reserved the possibility of bigger rate increases should they become necessary. Early tomorrow sees the release of UK January GDP figures which are obviously backward-looking. The focus instead is on how geopolitical uncertainties will affect inflation and growth as we approach the second quarter. Nevertheless, expect GDP to have increased by 0.4%m/m after falling by 0.2%m/m in December, led by higher services output as Omicron case numbers fell and restrictions were eased back. Look for improvements in supply chains to have supported manufacturing and construction output.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.0950 (804M), 1.1000 (1.59BLN), 1.1020 (952M) 1.1050 (586M), 1.1075-80 (890M), 1.1100-05 (715M) 1.1150-55 (634M), 1.1200 (455M) USD/JPY: 114.66-75 (1.17BLN), 115.30 (592M), 115.40 (939M) 115.80 (313M) GBP/USD: 1.3050 (274M), 1.3280 (238M), 1.3300 (228M) USD/CHF: 0.9300 (375M). USD/CAD: 1.2750 (265M) 1.2800 (461M), 1.2900 (220M) AUD/USD: 0.7290-00 (348M), 0.7330 (261M), 0.7400 (312M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above EUR/USD opened +1.68% at 1.1077 after soaring on the back of oil price slide It came under pressure in Asia when WTI futures regained some lost ground USD broadly firmed and EUR/USD traded down to 1.1042 at one stage Heading into the afternoon it is trading around 1.1050/55 ECB meeting later today may determine the extent of the EUR/USD recovery Focus will shift to Fed, as US CPI is also on tap later today Resistance is at the 50% of the 1.1495/1.0806 move at 1.1150 Bids are tipped ahead of 1.1000 with break re-igniting trend lowerGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Sterling strength an opportunity, as positive factors fade UK labour market shows mixed signals in February: REC Recruitment stalled, but inflationary pressures continue to build Charts; momentum studies, 5 10 & 21 daily and weekly moving averages fall 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals suggest downtrend remains strong Targets a break of Tuesdays 1.3083 base then 1.2831, 50% 2020-2021 climb Close above the falling 1.3269 10 day moving average would end downside biasUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below USD/JPY, JPY crosses bid with risk very much on, Nikkei +3.8% @25,667 AXJ in black too but E-Minis holding around par on day @4273 Crude oil prices bounce early but fall back later, Ukraine uncertainty USD/JPY 115.85 to 116.16 EBS on Japanese importer demand, short-covering Any offers vacuumed on way up, resistance 116.35-34 double top Jan 4/Feb 10 116.00-15 $445 mln option expiries today , tomorrow 116.00 $1.7 bln Firm US yields supportive, Treasury 10s @1.939% EUR/JPY 128.11-34, below 128.44 high o/n, 128.78 key retracement, ECB later GBP/JPY bouncing too, Asia 152.48-86, AUD/JPY buoyant, 84.54-99AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7100 Bearish below AUD/USD opened +0.67% at 0.7322 after USD fell when oil prices plunged Risk on mood in US underpinned AUD/USD while weak commodities capped USD clawed back in early Asia and AUD/USD fell to 0.7287 at one stage Buyers appeared on the dip after the USD buying flow was completed AUD/USD is settled around 0.7315/20 heading into the afternoon AUD/USD support is at 21-day MA at 0.7233 and break would end trend higher Resistance is at yesterday's 0.7337 high with sellers tipped ahead of 0.7350 AUD/USD gains will likely be limited unless there is a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine crisis

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Market Update – March 10 – Stocks & EUR Bounce, Oil sinks, Gold & USD slip

Risk On re-merged yesterday as stocks rallied (NASDAQ +3.59%, Nikkei +3.8%) as Russia-Ukraine Fin. Mins. meet in Turkey, OIL dived (-12% at one point) as UAE said it would increase output, but not break with OPEC. GOLD fell $85 & JPY & CHF dipped as  safe haven assets fell (USDJPY over 116), USD slipped too,  EUR had its best day in months (EURGBP back to 0.8400) ahead of ECB later. AUD & NZD hold their bid too. Yields fell and BTC stalled at key $42k level and lost over $2k. Overnight JPY PPI lept to 9.3% due to significant imports.

  • USD (USDIndex 98.04). Cooled from over 99.06 yesterday to 97.80 before recovering 98.00.  
  • US Yields 10-yr up to 1.948  on close – lower to 1.934% now.  Yesterday’s 10-yr auction was filled at 1.92. 
  • Equities – USA500 +107 (+2.57%) 4277.   US500 FUTS down at  4270 now.  Tech rallied over +5% ((Google, MSFT, NFLX & TWTR). XOM lost -5.6% as oils prices collapsed. Amazon +2.4% announced 20-for-1 stock split.
  • USOil – Tanked from $124.90, highs on Tuesday to $99.70 yesterday. $107.50 now.  
  • Gold – Down from Tuesday high at $2070 ato under $1975 now    
  • Bitcoin tested the key $42K level yesterday, only to reverse under $40k & trades at $39,300 now. 
  • FX marketsEURUSD back over 1.1050 , USDJPY holds over 116.00 and Cable up to 1.3190 now.    

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 15 ticks at 163.75, outperforming versus Treasury futures. Yields moved higher across Asia, but the broad reversal of save haven flows, that dominated yesterday’s session has already started to run out of steam as doubts over hopes that Ukraine and Russia will come to an agreement at the scheduled meeting of foreign ministers in Turkey today, have crept in. US futures are broadly lower, even if DAX and FTSE 100 futures are adding to yesterday’s gains. The correction in oil prices eases some of the recent pressure and for the Eurozone at least, support also comes from home that EU heads of state will agree to joint debt issuance to finance energy and defence policies in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the escalating tensions between the West and Russia.

ECB Preview – The ECB meets today and another joint debt package would increase the central bank’s room to extend net asset purchases, which most now expect the central bank to keep open ended at today’s meeting as warnings of stagflation fears dominate the headlines. Still, the ECB can’t afford to do nothing and may find a way to change strategy and open the way to hike rates, while still buying bonds.

TodayUS CPI, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference (Lagarde), Weekly Claims, Russia-Ukraine Foreign Ministers in Turkey & EU Leaders Summit, RBA’s Lowe.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.40%) Rallied from from 0.6735 lows yesterday to over 0.68.00 now. MAs  aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram hold over 0 line, RSI 62 & rising, Stochs in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0070.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.



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Wednesday, March 9, 2022

XAUUSD – Gold prices pass all-time high amid dollar appreciation

The war in Ukraine has finally pushed traditional safe-haven Gold closer to the all-time high seen in August 2020 after the United States and Britain announced a ban on oil imports from Russia. The EU will cut gas imports from Russia by two-thirds by the end of the year despite threats from Russia that it will close gas pipelines to Europe if oil imports are banned.

In addition to the war in Ukraine, Inflation, which is at a decades record high  is another key reason that has helped drive gold prices to this point. And the war is about to exacerbate the inflation situation, because in addition to disrupting the supply chain the policy action of central banks may also be disrupted.

However, as the price of gold heats up towards a new all-time high, the US Dollar is also at its highest since May 2020, with the USDIndex hitting a new high of 99.40 this week, the same level as it was before the coronavirus crisis. Meanwhile, ahead of the FOMC meeting on March 15-16, Fed Chair Powell said in his testimony last week that he supported a 0.25% rate hike (to 0.5%) for the March meeting. So if the Dollar strengthens further it may become a major obstacle for gold prices.

Intraday technical view: in the H1 timeframe the price is narrowing within the bullish channel frame, indicating a correction has formed, while the MACD has dropped below the signal line. It is still significantly above the 0 line and the RSI is at 61 and has just dropped from the overbought zone. The intraday trend is still in an uptrend. The first resistance is at the latest high at $2070. If it breaks, there is the next resistance at the all-time high $2075 zone. There will be the first support at $2035 and the next support at $2020.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Chayut Vachirathanakit

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.



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Cotton Futures (CT!), H4 Potential for Further Dips

Type: Further DipsKey Levels:Resistance: 120.14Pivot: 119.11Support: 116.20Preferred Case:Preferred case: Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for further dips from our Pivot at 119.11 in line 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 116.20 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by Prices trading below our Ichimoku cloud support.Alternative Scenario: If prices were to reverse, they can potentially climb towards our 1st resistance at 120.14 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection.Fundamentals:No major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cotton-futures-ct-h4-potential-for-further-dips"
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Corn ( ZC1!) , H4 Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 782'4Pivot: 719'0Support: 705'6Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 719'0 in line with horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 782'4 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension . Our bullish bias is supported by how price is moving above the Ichimoku cloud .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 705'6 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals: No major news event.

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Daily Market Outlook, March 9, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, March 9, 2022 Overnight Headlines Biden Enlists Consumers To Tighten Clamp On Russia Economy US Energy Sec: Not Pressuring Allies To Ban Russian Oil Import US State Department Envoy: Could Release More Oil Reserves US Pins Easing Of Venezuela Sanctions On Direct US Oil Supply Negotiators To Finish Omnibus Spending Bill With Ukraine Aid Commerce Sec: China Firms Aiding Russia Could See US Action West Tell Russia Do Not Wreck Iran Deal With New Conditions Saudi, UAE Leader Decline Call With Biden Amid Ukraine Crisis China Factory Prices Ease, Focus Now On Global Commodities RBA's Lowe: Hike Later This Year ‘Plausible’, Patient On Policy Russia Rating Cut By Fitch, Expecting ‘Imminent’ Bond Default Poland Says Could Transfer Warplanes To US Base In GermanyThe Day Ahead Asian equity performance is mixed this morning with some up but the majority down. China is amongst the biggest fallers. US President Biden has banned imports of Russian oil and gas, and the UK has moved to phase out Russian oil imports. The EU has not followed suit but has said that it will cut imports of Russian gas by two-thirds within a year. The Brent crude oil price has moved back up to $131bbl. Higher energy prices and in particular gas prices point to very significant upside risks for inflation. That potentially implies an unprecedented reduction in consumers’ buying power, suggesting downside risks for economic growth. In light of this, governments are under pressure to provide relief measures and the UK Spring Budget update on 23rd March seems set to be looked at. However, it is unclear at present whether the UK government will offer any new support. In the meantime, reports say that an emergency EU summit on Thursday will discuss the issuance of joint EU bonds to finance a rise in defence and energy spending. Bank of England policymakers have now joined those of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve in a blackout ahead of their next policy updates. We will hear from the ECB tomorrow and the other two next week. So far at least, they seem to be taking slightly differing views on how they should respond to the escalation in the Ukrainian crisis. The ECB seems set to announce that it will continue with its very stimulative policy position. In contrast, the Fed and the BoE look like they will still raise interest rates next week and point to the possibility of further tightening despite concerns about potential downside risks for economic growth. Today’s data calendar is very light and is unlikely to attract much market attention. There are no UK releases of any note for the rest of the day. However, early Thursday the February RICS housing price survey will provide evidence of whether the market remains buoyant for now. In the Eurozone, Italian industrial production will be the latest indication on trends in the factory sector for January. Reports for France and Germany both showed big rises in output during the month, which may be due to an easing in Covid restrictions but may also be a sign that some supply bottlenecks are easing. In the US, the January JOLTS survey on labour market turnover will provide further detail on hiring and labour mobility trends. The red-hot labour market is one of the reasons why the Fed thinks that interest rates need to rise. Today’s release is likely again show that vacancies are proving hard to fill, inducing upward pressure on wages. G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) USDJPY - 115.40/60 794m. 115.00 434m. EURUSD - 1.1250 430m. 1.1100 641m. 1.0960 660m. AUDUSD - 0.7250/60 673m. 0.7170/90 487m. NZDUSD - 0.7150 1.09bn (50/50 C/P). 0.7120 1.18bn (50/50 C/P). USDCAD - 1.2680/90 475m. 1.2630 426m. 1.25360 760m. EURGBP - 131.50 832m. 129.50 507m. EURSEK - 10.31 520m. 10.28 455m. USDZAR - 15.46 530m. USDMXN - 21.60 1.36bn (820m C). USDCNH - 6.37 898m. 6.32 570m. Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.15 Bullish above EUR/USD ticks higher to 1.0918, tad above Tues close 1.0894 But still inside Bollinger downtrend channel; ceiling at 1.1025 Sellers may start fading in from Fibo resistance 1.0969 Tentative risk-on despite still higher oil prices; S&P +0.4% Mkt may be rewarding US/UK move against Russian oil Dip-buyers return to equities as crypto bulls propel BTC +7.3% The EUR/USD slide has been stretched into oversold territory This week's bounce has helped to alleviate the oversold situation Bounce timed with SNB's intervention statement and EUR/CHF rally IF SNB intervenes it supports EUR and help suppress vol Subsequent rebalancing to sell EUR/USD creates vol and will certainly weigh Traders are long EUR/USD even gambling (adding) on day of invasion 2020 low at 1.0636 and 2017 low at 1.0340 are targets of recent tech breaksGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.36 Bullish above. Trend pauses for breath, but bearish factors remain Trades up 0.05% in a 1.3091-1.3117 range with only moderate interest News rightly dominated by the Ukraine crisis which continues Oil continues to climb, Brent +2.4% at $131, risk recovers, E-mini S&P +0.3% Charts; momentum studies, 5 10 & 21 daily and weekly moving averages fall 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals suggest downtrend remains strong Trades at levels unseen since Dec 2020, targets 1.2831, 50% 2020-2021 climb Close above the falling 1.3282 10 day moving average would end downside biasUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 114.50 Bearish below USD/JPY bid but upside limited, JPY cross upside too USD/JPY buoyant in Asia, 115.62 to 115.92 EBS before easing back Resistance/offers still ahead of 116.00, above, exporters in mix Test of 116.35/34 double top Jan 4/Feb 10 eventually but maybe not now Ukraine developments still in market eye, risk mood better but far from on Reports Japanese importers need to fund more energy purchases supportive US yields firmer too, funding still at premium, Treasury 10s @1.841% Option expiries today include 115.40-60 $788 mln, 116.30-50 $480 mln EUR/JPY rallied on jump in EZ yields yesterday but below o/n 126.73 high Asia 126.13-55, bias still down, GBP/JPY heavy, 151.37-152.03AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7100 Bearish below AUD/USD may get a reprieve with nascent risk rally AUD/USD rises to 0.7286 from Wed low 0.7265; ASX +1.2% Nascent risk rally, despite oil +2.0%, sends S&P futures +0.6% No end in sight for Ukraine war but China may mediate AUD bulls will be encouraged if it closes above 0.7296 That would re-engage daily Bollinger uptrend channel More positive outcome would be closing above 200 DMA 0.7318

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-march-9-2022"
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Natural Gases Futures (NG!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 5.098Pivot: 4.406Support: 4.227Preferred Case:Prices are consolidating in a daily triangle. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 4.406 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 5.098 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported prices trading above our Ichimoku clouds.Alternative Scenario: If prices were to reverse, they can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 4.227 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci Projection.Fundamentals:U.S. and U.K sanctions on fuels and plans to phase out crude by end of 2022 will mean potentially further rally on the commodity.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/natural-gases-futures-ng-h4-potential-for-bullish-bounce"
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Commodities have performed poorly over the past year, but they tend to move in long and volatile cycles. from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://m...