AUDNZD, H4 I Potential Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.08758Pivot: 1.07881Support: 1.07195Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1.08758 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 1.07881 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.07195 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audnzd-h4-i-potential-rise"
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CHFJPY, H1 I Potential Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 131.888Pivot: 130.866Support: 130.432Preferred Case:On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the support of the stochastics, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 131.888 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from our pivot of 130.866 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot and head for 1st support at 130.432 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/chfjpy-h1-i-potential-rise"
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XRPUSD, H4 | Potential For Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.92Pivot: 0.85Support: 0.83Preferred Case:Prices are abiding by an ascending trendline and on bullish momentum. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 0.85 which is in line with 127.2% Fibonacci Projection towards our 1st resistance at 0.92 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 0.83 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xrpusd-h4-or-potential-for-bounce"
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S&P 500, H4 | Potential for Dip

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 4646.93Pivot: 4621.66Support: 4512.86Preferred Case:Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 4621.66 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 4512.86 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb higher towards our 1st resistance at 4646.93 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-h4-or-potential-for-dip"
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Daily Market Outlook, March 30, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, March 30, 2022 Overnight Headlines Russia: De-Escalation Not A Ceasefire; Talks Have Long Way To Go Russia-Backed Donetsk Republic May Consider Joining Russia, Says Leader Japan Feb Retail Sales Post First Decline In 5 Months On Omicron Curbs New Zealand Business Confidence Improves In March According To ANZ Fed’s Bullard Favours Raising Fed Rates Above 3% By End Of This Year Fed's Harker: Expects Series Of ‘Deliberate, Methodical' Rate Rises Senate Prepares Confirmation Vote For Lisa Cook As Fed Governor Economists Now Predict Multiple Half-Point Rate Hikes In Canada German Econ Experts Significantly Lowers GDP Est To 1.8%, Lift CPI To 6.1% Yen Pulls Back From Precipice As Traders Fear Intervention From BoJ BoJ Notches Up Defence Of Yield Cap With Bigger, Unscheduled Bond Buying Bitcoin Takes A Pause From Sharp Recovery Rally As Bulls Regroup Oil Climbs After Two-Day Drop As Investors Assess Ukraine Talks Wall Street Rallies On Hopes Russia, Ukraine Can Resolve Conflict Morgan Stanley Will Launch An ETF Platform Later This Year M. Stanley’s Head Of US, EU Credit Strat: Ukraine-Russia Rally Is A ‘Blip’ Stock Surge Is a Bear-Market Trap With Curve Inverted, BofA Warns Northrop To Gain $59Bln Over 6-Yrs For Bomber, Missile Air Force PlanThe Day Ahead Reports that Russia is de-escalating military operations around Kyiv have further buoyed market risk sentiment, although the Kremlin said it does not amount to a ceasefire and it was met with some scepticism in the US. Equities in the Asia-Pacific region are mostly trading higher, with the notable exception of Japan where the yen recouped recent losses. Rising U.S. yields are also dragging Japanese government bond yields in their wake, a threat to Japan's ultra loose monetary policy. The Bank of Japan increased its efforts to defend its key yield cap on Wednesday offering to ramp up buying of government bonds across the curve including through unscheduled emergency market operations. While this apparently underscored its resolve to hold to the policy, the question now becomes whether the strategy is sustainable? The widening differential between U.S. and Japanese yields have caused the yen to weaken sharply, but it managed to regain some lost ground on Wednesday. Eurozone inflation, as elsewhere, has risen significantly in recent months, even before the war in Ukraine which has highlighted Europe’s dependency on Russian gas and other energy imports. The conflict has the potential to drive Eurozone annual headline inflation rates sharply higher from the already elevated 5.8% in February. The March ‘flash’ CPI estimate is due on Friday, but key national inflation data will be released ahead of that including Spanish and German figures today, followed by France and Italy tomorrow. In particular, the national prints will be watched closely for signs that the Eurozone flash CPI in March will jump up by more than the consensus forecast of 6.7% (central forecast is 7.3%). ECB Chief Economist Lane this week sought to play down the massive spike in inflation, emphasising that it is an imported price shock (given Europe is a net energy importer) rather than a reflection of domestic inflationary pressures, and that inflation will be ‘a lot lower’ next year. Still, current uncomfortably high levels of inflation will likely result in significant pressure from more hawkish ECB members for interest rates to rise before the end of the year. There are a few ECB speakers today, including a speech from President Lagarde who is visiting Cyprus. Eurozone economic confidence indicators due this morning are forecast to fall. In the UK, BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent is scheduled to speak this morning on “the MPC at 25”. Broadbent has always voted with the majority on the MPC, so his views on the policy outlook will be closely listened to. The BoE has sounded more cautious about prospects for further policy tightening given increasing economic uncertainties and headwinds. Governor Bailey noted this week that there were signs that demand is slowing. The Lloyds Business Barometer for March will be released early tomorrow and will provide an update on business confidence which has so far held up much better than consumer confidence. The second estimate of Q4 GDP is also due tomorrow morning and will provide additional detail on the extent to which consumers may be drawing down savings to cushion themselves from the impact of higher prices. There are also some US Fed speakers in the schedule, including a virtual speech from Kansas City Fed President George (voter) to the Economic Club of New York. The third estimate of US Q4 GDP is due, as are China PMIs early Thursday morning which may show impact from strict lockdown measures to combat rising Covid case numbers.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls ) EUR/USD: 1.1000 (2.44BLN), 1.1050-60 (1.8BLN) 1.1100 (2.17BLN), 1.1150-55 (1.36BLN), 1.1195-00 (1.64BLN) USD/JPY: 122.00-05 (690M), 122.50 (250M), 122.90-00 (1.0BLN) GBP/USD: 1.3100-05 (630M). USD/CAD: 1.2450 (550M) 1.2475 (350M), 1.2500 (718M), 1.2525 (730M), 1.2550 (317M) AUD/USD: 0.7600 (360M). USD/CHF: 0.9240 (360M) 0.9250-55 (280M), 0.9350 (200M) EUR/CHF 1.0340-50 (952M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.12 Bullish above Moves higher on the back of USD/JPY sell off EUR/USD opened +0.90% after getting a boost from Russia/Ukraine optimism After dipping to 1.1080 it tracked higher when USD/JPY started to fall Heading into the afternoon it is close to the session high around 1.1115 EUR/USD approaching key levels that will determine short-term direction Resistance is at double-top at 1.1137 and 50% of 1.1495/1.0806 at 1.1150 A break above 1.1160 could see recovery extend to 61.8 of move at 1.1231 Support is at the 10-day MA at 1.1033 and 21-day MA at 1.1005GBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.3350 Bullish above. Bid amid inflation fears and a soft U.S. dollar +0.05% in a tight 1.3091-1.3108 range with a softer USD and consistent flow UK retailers raise prices by most in nearly 11 years - BRC Highlights inflationary pressures, keeps heat on the BoE to raise rates COVID equipment may be the next scandal for the UK government Charts; momentum studies - 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages edge south 21 day Bollinger bands contract - mixed signals have turned bearish The first major support is the 1.3000 March and 20220 trend low 1.3132-62, 5, 21 and 10 day moving averages initial resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 116 Bearish below JPY crosses fall more on heavy repatriation flows USD/JPY and JPY crosses fall more in Asia on heavy repatriation flows Bounce from 121.98 New York low into Asia, high 123.20 into Tokyo fix News BoJ to up amount to cap JGB 10s @0.25%, expand maturities helped Rally met by heavy Japan fiscal year-end repatriation flows, exporter sales USD/JPY ratchets down to 121.32, near ascending 121.27 200-HMA Residual repatriation, exporter sales for FY-end may be seen tom too Some option expiries nearby - 121.00-05 total $636 mln, 122.00 $590 mln US yields ease off in Asia, Treasury 2s to 2.312%, 10s to 2.343% Nikkei off but AXJ mostly up, Nikkei -1.6% @27,792, E-Minis -0.2% @4618 JPY crosses off with USD/JPY, some repatriation flows, commodities lowerAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7100 Bearish below Consolidates above 0.7500 as USD eases led by USD/JPY AUD/USD opened +0.20% at 0.7507 after USD broadly weakened on Ukraine optimism AUD/USD traded in a 0.7504/25 range in Asia and is steady around 0.7510 Most of the action was in the USD/JPY with it falling below 1.2200 The USD merely traded with an offered tone against other currencies AUD/USD resistance is at 0.7540 and the Oct trend higher at 0.7555 Support @ the 10-day MA at 0.7469 and break would suggest momentum is waning A break below 0.7450 targets the 21-day MA at 0.7377

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-march-30-2022"
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Apple Rises 11 Days in a Row, Best Record Since 2003

After starting 2022 with a left move, Apple stock (MT5 DMA: #Apple) is seen gaining upward momentum once again. Apple shares have been seen rising for 11 consecutive days since March 15, the longest series of gains for Apple shares since 2003.

The fall in stock prices especially in the technology sector in 2022 due to concerns of rising inflation, as well as pressures from world geopolitical issues, are now seen to have come to an end. Apple shares are now back to levels last seen in early January. Apple’s share price had found a floor at $150 a share in mid-March, after which it recorded a series of consistent and lengthy gains as investors returned to investing in the technology sector and demand continued to rise.

The 2022 highest price is at $182.87 which is now the Bulls’ target for the next test level. It is trading comfortably above the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA and is seen to still have momentum with the RSI-14 still below the overbought levels, while the daily MACD level is still below 0.

Fundamentally, Apple’s price increase is the best of all the tech stocks from the Trillion Dollar Club. The situation of Apple’s share price increase, which coincided with the Federal Reserve’s action which is now seen as aggressive in formulating policies to control inflation, as well as the 10-year yield increase which has reached 2.50%, is very rare and very interesting to study. Apple is currently trading at its 2022 opening breakeven at $178 per share. This has allowed the market value of Apple’s capital to rise again and approach the elusive figure of $3 trillion.

 

CNN Business is putting the next 12-month median price forecast for Apple at $193.50, with the highest price projected at $215 and the lowest at $160. Meanwhile the census results from 42 investment analysts put Buy as the top projection (27 analysts), with 6 analysts projecting Outperform, 8 analysts projecting Hold and only one analyst projecting Apple as Underperform.

With Apple set to complete its first financial quarter of 2022 this weekend, investors are seen increasingly optimistic that Apple will report earnings reports that exceed market expectations on April 27.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Tunku Ishak Al-Irsyad

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /324115/
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Market Update – March 30 – USD Dips Stocks rally, Yen recovers,

USD & Yields dip and Stocks & Euro rally (NASDAQ 1.84%) following Russian-Ukraine negotiations. US data (Case-Schiller Housing Index, JOLTS & Consumer Confidence) all stronger than expected adding to high inflation and tight jobs market scenario.  Yen recovered on chatter of BOJ intervention, and Oil &  Gold dip before recovering. The yield curve extended it’s inversion as 10-yr yields dipped under 2.0% before lifting. Asian markets followed US higher (Nikkei & ASX +1.0%, Shanghai 1.51%).

Overnight  –  JPY Retail Sales  missed (-0.8%% vs -0.3% & 1.1%)  German regional CPI coming in hotter than expected ie North Rhine Westphalia March CPI +7.6% vs +5.3%.

• USD (USDIndex 98.16). Dipped further to 98.00 zone before recovering.
• US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.40% and under 2.0% overnight, now back to 2.36%
• Equities – USA500 +56.01 (+1.23%) 4631. US500 FUTS now at 4572 now. APPLE rose for an 11th consecutive day (+1.91%), HOOD up over +24% following AMC rally (+45%) day before and GME dropped -5.11% 45% as the meme stocks raised their heads again.
• USOil – Fell again (over 1.0%) to $98.65 yesterday, but has recovered $107.00.   
• Gold – slipped to $1890 yesterday from Friday’s close $1955. Back to $1925 now.   
• Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to top at 48.1K, yesterday, back to 47.4k now. 
• FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1136 now after 1.0950 test Monday,  USDJPY over 125.00 & new 7-yr highs Monday back to 122.00 now as JP Government signals worries over weak Yen. Cable back to 1.3120 now.    

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 43 ticks, US futures are also higher,  DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.1% and up 0.1% respectively,  as the initial euphoria over the positive headlines on the progress of Ukraine-Russia peace talks has faded.  It still seems a long way to a final agreement and oil prices have backed up from lows under $100 seen in the wake of the initial headlines on the talks yesterday. Meanwhile concern that aggressive central bank action will sap the recovery is lingering. The 2-10 year part of the U.S. Treasury curve inverted yesterday for the first time since 2019, but while the 2-year has dropped back again since, 3 and 5 year rates are still holding above the 10 year. ECB chief economist Lane was out yesterday repeating that a rate hike in Q4 is not cast in stone and that rate moves will be data dependent.

Today – German CPI Prelim, US ADP & GDP (Final/Q4), Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bostic & George, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Broadbent

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.76%) Fear of BOJ intervention lifted YEN pairs. Next support 121.00 MAs turned lower, MACD signal line & histogram now  below 0 line and cooling, RSI 36, H1 ATR 0.310, Daily ATR 1.31.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Russia Sends Major de-Escalation Signal, Risk Assets Surge on Expectations of a Ceasefire

Progress in peace talks between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in Istanbul today has become the main driver of recovery moves in risk assets and Forex. One of the key signals of de-escalation was the statement by a representative of the Russian Defense Ministry that "the Russian Ministry of Defense will significantly reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernigov directions." The geopolitical premium in dollar unwinds, European markets react to the news with strong upside. European stock indexes rose by an average of 3.1%. Gold and oil also price-in major de-escalation expectations, declining by 1.6% and 3.8% respectively.The positive momentum was strong enough to offset disappointing German and French consumer confidence data, which reflected worries of EU households about high inflation and economic consequences of the war.The yield on 10-year Bunds, the main benchmark of cost of borrowing in the German economy, rose to the highest level in almost 4 years. Yield on 2-year Bunds climbed into the positive zone, reflecting concerns that the ECB will finally be able to breathe out and begin to catch up with the Fed in terms of policy normalization pace. This is also indicated by a less pronounced reaction of the yield of 2-year Treasuries to the surge in optimism:The Russian ruble made yet another strong intraday advance rallying to 83.50 against USD thanks to de-escalation signals and expectations of sanction pressure relief as the key demand of the West was cessation of hostilities.However, it’s important not to fall into the trap of the surge of optimism as fundamentally the gap in the pace of policy tightening between the Fed and Central Banks of other developed economies (EU, UK, Japan) remains quite wide. This week, a number of US labor market reports (ADP, JOLTS, ISM in services, NFP) will be released that could increase the chances that the Fed will accelerate the pace of rate hikes. Fed speakers (John Williams and Patrick Harker) will speak today, they can shed more light on the near-term path of the Fed policy which is likely to become more hawkish on the reduction of major uncertainty.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/russia-sends-major-de-escalation-signal-risk-assets-surge-on-expectations-of-a-ceasefire"
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HGK2022 (Copper Futures) | H1 Bullish Pressure

Type: Bullish PressureKey Levels:Resistance: 4.7730Pivot: 4.7000Support: 4.6415Preferred Case:Price is near pivot level of 4.7000 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise up to the 1st resistance level at 4.7730, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level.Alternative Scenario:Price might also dip towards the 1st support level of 4.6415 in line with a graphical swing low support.Fundamentals:No Major News

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/hgk2022-copper-futures-or-h1-bullish-pressure"
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ZOK2022 (Oats Futures) | H1 Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 758'6Pivot: 738'0Support: 716'0Preferred Case:Price is near pivot level of 738'0 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially rise up to the 1st resistance level at 758'6, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further supported by price trading above the Ichimoku cloud indicator.Alternative Scenario:Price might also dip towards the 1st support level of 716'0 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Fundamentals:No Major News

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/zok2022-oats-futures-or-h1-bullish-bounce"
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Light Crude Oil Futures (CL!), H1 Potential for Dip!

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 114.35Pivot: 112.05Support: 107.92Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by our descending trendline resistance. We see the potential for a further bearish continuation from our Pivot at 104.45 in line graphical overlap, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 94.44 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by Ichimoku forecasting the bearish move.Alternative Scenario:If prices were to reverse, they can potentially reach our 1st resistance at 107.84 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection.Fundamentals:The lockdown of Shanghai, following a similar move in Shenzhen, casts doubt again on China’s approach to dealing with Covid-19 using the covid-zero strategy and its impact on oil demand from the largest consumer and importer of oil. This will support our bearish view on oil.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/light-crude-oil-futures-cl-h1-potential-for-dip29"
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Silver Futures (SI!), H1 Potential for Dip!

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 25.140Pivot: 25.055Support: 24.690Preferred Case:Prices have recently bounced off a pivot and are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our Pivot at 25.055 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and graphical overlap towards our 1st support at 24.690 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Our bearish bias is further supported by prices trading below our Ichimoku.Alternative Scenario:If prices were to reverse, they can potentially reach our 1st resistance at 25.140 which is the next swing high.Fundamentals:With inflation still being an issue in the west and stalemate circumstances in the Russo-Ukraine crisis, we might still expect bullish upside on the commodity.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-futures-si-h1-potential-for-dip29"
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The IndeX Files 29-03-2022

Risk Rebound Continues Amidst Russia-Ukraine Peace TalksRisk assets are again trading with a better tone this week with each of the benchmark equities indices track here in the green on Tuesday. The market has been rebounding firmly across recent weeks as traders continue to focus their optimism on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. The two sides are set to undergo a further round of talks this week with both countries expressing hopes for a resolution and an end to the violence. While talks so far have proved fruitless, the heavy losses suffered by both sides, as well as the toll of Western sanctions on Russia, is leading traders to hope for a compromise.Looking ahead this week, the main data focus will be on the US labour reports due on Friday. Following the prior month’s bumper set of figures, the market is expecting a somewhat softer reading this time around with expectations for a 485k result (down from 678k last time). Nevertheless, a reading in this region will still be bullish for USD particularly if the unemployment rate is seen falling further and wage growth continues to improve. The Fed has outlines its clear, hawkish intentions, along with the upside risks in its outlook. With this in mind, it would likely take a dismal set of results on Friday to derail the current USD move.Technical ViewsDAXThe recent rally in the DAX has seen the market breaking above the 14170.79 level. Price is now sitting just below the bear channel top and 14791.27 level. With both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a further break higher here targeting a move back up to 15636.39 next.S&P 500The rally in the S&P has seen the market breaking out of the bear channel from ATH and above the 4475.25 level. Price is now testing the 4575.50 level and, with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 4744 level next.FTSEThe FTSE has seen an explosive move off the 6818.3 lows. While momentum has fizzled out somewhat recently, the rally is still intact and with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher. The next challenge for bulls will be the 7558.7 level, ahead of the bull channel top and 7691.6 level.NIKKEIThe rally off the 24619.3 lows has seen the market trading back up to test the top of the large falling wedge pattern. Price is currently being held here (around the 28356.6 resistance). However, with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 29464.9 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-29-03-2022"
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Karel Komárek: the billionaire lottery winner

• SEE MORE 19 November 1994: The first National Lottery draw

As birthday presents go, winning the lottery isn’t a bad one – or so Czech billionaire Karel Komárek observed after his company, Allwyn, emerged as the “preferred bidder” to run Britain’s national sweepstake, having wrested the prize from the incumbent, Camelot. But the deal isn’t quite in the bag – not least, notes the Financial Times, because Komárek’s broader KKCG empire owns a Czech oil and gas business that has a gas storage joint venture with Kremlin-controlled Gazprom, prompting “anxiety from MPs from across the political spectrum”.

A mystery man

Komárek, 53, is scrambling to undo these links, and has condemned Putin and the invasion of Ukraine via his social accounts. Even then, he may not enjoy a straightforward run, says The Daily Telegraph. Camelot, which has run the lottery since its launch in 1994, isn’t going quietly and may mount a legal challenge against the Gambling Commission’s decision, potentially lifting the lid on a bidding process shrouded in secrecy. Formerly known as the Sazka Group, Allwyn runs lotteries across Europe.

It apparently impressed with its “vow to launch a digital investment spree”, halve ticket prices, and double the amount the lottery makes for good causes. It assembled a roster of British business luminaries, including Sebastian Coe and Air Miles inventor Keith Mills, who both worked with Boris Johnson on the 2012 Olympics when he was London mayor.

Komárek can now expect to find his past dealings under the microscope. But “some of the suspicion” with which he is “viewed in certain British circles can be blamed on xenophobia” and his “relatively mysterious profile”, says the Daily Mail. The fitness fanatic is thought to be worth $7.8bn. He runs his empire from a palatial residence in Verbier billed as “one of the finest properties in the Alps”, which was valued at £28m when it was finished ten years ago and “rents for almost half a million pounds a week” when he’s out of town.

The seeds of his success began in the aftermath of Czechoslovakia’s 1989 Velvet Revolution. Komarek grew up in a twobedroom flat in the South Moravian mining town of Hodonin. He was 20 when the Iron Curtain lifted. With a $10,000 loan from his father, he set up a business selling industrial parts, quickly expanding into oil and gas supply. “When the Revolution came, I felt I was born for the second time,” he told Vanity Fair. “I was so naïve – I had no clue.”

He soon wised up in the rough world of post-Soviet energy markets, showing similar pragmatism when he moved into lotteries. Having taken a minority stake in the Czech national operator, Sazka, in 2011, he acquired it outright within a year and in 2013, took advantage of Greece’s parlous financial state to co-acquire its stake in the listed gambling operator OPAP. Deals to run lotteries in Austria and Italy followed.

An even bigger prize

Komarek’s KKCG empire now encompasses energy, tourism, property, technology, private jets, and biomedicine, as well as the burgeoning lottery and gambling business. Winning in Britain, which hosts the world’s fourth-largest lottery, could add another $10bn to Allwyn’s revenues, says the FT. But the company has its sights set on an even bigger market. In January, it announced plans for a $9.3bn listing in New York, via a special purpose acquisition company (Spac) backed by Gary Cohn, the former president of Goldman Sachs and Trump administration adviser. Lotteries, Komárek told Vanity Fair, are “probably the most interesting type of business I have ever been in”. He likes their potential to change lives – his own included.

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