Soybean Oil Futures (ZL1!), H1 Potential for Bullish Rise!

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 73.42Pivot: 72.11Support: 70.81Preferred Case:With price moving above the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 73.42 in line with the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from our pivot of 72.11 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal pullback support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 70.81 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support.Fundamentals:No major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-oil-futures-zl1-h1-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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GER40 (DAX) Breaking lower after 4 day consolidation?

The German Stock Exchange index, GER40 has been trading relatively flat over the past week, but has moved lower in early trading today, following a weak close yesterday. Although the bond market gives the impression that risks are increasing, the current state of equity markets in Europe is relatively positive and controlled. After recording a decline in early March following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the GER40 bounced back and bounced back to higher levels.

However, GER40 failed to stay above the golden ratio Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% at 14,814. It tried to test but Return was rejected and is now trading at 14,400. GER40 is also trading below the daily MA-50 dynamic resistant level. To ensure the bull remains relevant, the GER40 needs to continue to trade above the 14,000 psychological level in the near term. With the 61.8% fibo retracement target being an important resistance, and the MA-200 level cum 78.6% fibo retracement being the next target at 15,393.

The market remains selective for the time being with the focus still on the impact of the Russian aggression on European economic growth and the impact on the Q1 earnings reports of European giants. UBS reports that they have revised their global growth forecast to 8% from 10%. Moreover, rumors in the market that the ECB is ready to raise interest rates to curb rising inflation this year are expected to have an impact on demand in European equity markets. The focus is also on the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Brussels, Belgium on Thursday 7 April, any statement is expected to have an impact on the GER40 movement.

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Tunku Ishak Al-Irsyad

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /326150/
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Corn Futures (ZC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish Rise!

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 767'0Pivot: 750'2Support: 741'0Preferred Case:With price moving above the Ichimoku cloud along with the recent trendline breakout, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 767'0 in line with he swing high resistance from our pivot of 750'2 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal pullback support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 741'0 in line with he 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the swing low support.Fundamentals:No major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/corn-futures-zc1-h1-potential-for-bullish-rise6"
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Market Spotlight: Bonds Under Pressure Following Brainard Comments

Bonds Tank on Fed HawkishnessUS bond prices continue to sink this week, with bonds soaring, on the back of hawkish comments from Fed’s Brainard overnight. Speaking at a conference in Minneapolis, Brainard told the audience that she believes the run-off in the Fed’s balance sheet will happen at a much quicker pace than the last time the Fed shrank its balance sheet. The Fed governor noted that the Fed will likely begin shrinking its portfolio as soon as next month and with raise rates “methodically” to return monetary policy to a more neutral position.Looking ahead, Brainard said such reductions "will contribute to monetary policy tightening over and above the expected increases in the policy rate reflected in market pricing and the Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections."Given that Brainard is usually among the more dovish members of the Fed, these comments have sparked significant movement in markets. Traders are taking the comments as a clear signal of the more hawkish shift underway at the Fed, echoing comments made by Draghi on the back of the last FOMC meeting. Tonight, traders will receive the minutes from that meeting and markets are bracing themselves for further hawkish details to be released.Technical Views10 Yr BondThe market has now broken below the 94’06’3 level and is trading at fresh, multi-year lows. With both MACD and RSI bearish, and with yields soaring, the outlook remains skewed towards further downside in the near term. Bulls will need to see a topside break of 95’15’6.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-bonds-under-pressure-following-brainard-comments"
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Silver Futures (SI1!), H4 Potential For Dip!

Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 25.005Pivot: 24.665Support: 24.050Preferred Case:Prices have broken our pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 24.665 in line with 50% Fibonacci Retracement towards our 1st support at 24.050 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by prices trading below our Ichimoku cloud resistance.Alternative Scenario:If prices were to continue their rally, they can potentially reach our 1st resistance at 25.005 which is an area of Fibonacci confluencesFundamentals:With inflation and war tensions might result in a fundamentally upwards bias on the pair. As FA and TA are in conflict, we would advise investors to be prudent in trading the precious metal.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-futures-si1-h4-potential-for-dip6"
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Wheat Futures (ZW1!), H4 Bearish Dip

Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 1075'6Pivot: 1036'6Support: 982'0Preferred Case:Prices have approached our Pivot at 1036'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement . We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 1036'6 towards our 1st support at 982'0 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection . Prices are trading below our Ichimoku cloud resistance, further supporting our bearish bias.Alternative Scenario:Price might continue to climb towards the 1st resistance level of 1075'6 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection .Fundamentals:No Major News

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/wheat-futures-zw1-h4-bearish-dip6"
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Light Crude Oil Futures ( CL1! ), H4 Potential For Further Dips

Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 104.56Pivot: 102.83Support: 98.24Preferred Case:Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by a descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our pivot at 102.83 which is a graphical overlap and in line with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement towards our 1st support at 98.24 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 104.56 which is a graphical swing high and in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection .Fundamentals:Biden Administration stated its intent to release around 1m bbl /day of oil from the SPR to ease the inflation situation in the country, supporting a bearish bias.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/light-crude-oil-futures-cl1-h4-potential-for-further-dips"
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Gold Futures (GC!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1959.0Pivot: 1921.0Support: 1910.2Preferred Case:Prices have recently broken out of our descending trendline. We see the potential for further bullish continuation from our Pivot at 1921.0 in line graphical overlap and area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st resistance at 1959.0 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection . Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI being at levels where bounces previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:If prices were to reverse, they can potentially reach our 1st support at 1910.2 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection .Fundamentals:With continuation of Russo-Ukraine invasions and inflation, we might expect a slight bullish turn towards the precious metal.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-futures-gc-h4-potential-for-bullish-bounce"
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EURJPY H4 | Potential For Dip!

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 136.953Pivot: 135.917Support: 133.034Preferred Case:Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for dip from our Pivot at 135.917 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 133.034 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Ichimoku is forecasting bearish dip.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb higher towards our 1st resistance at 136.953 which is a swing high.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurjpy-h4-or-potential-for-dip"
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Bitcoin: Correction or Start of Continuation Higher?

Tricky 2022 So FarFor those who joined the crypto-rollercoaster late last year, 2022 has been a far from joyous experience. Any crypto bulls hoping for the same sort of increase as we saw over Q1 2022 have been left heavily disappointed. Leading cryptos such as Bitcoin and Ethereum spent most of January under heavy selling pressure as digital assets extending the sell-off from last year’s highs. However, this selling pressure stalled into the middle of Q1 with both BTC and ETH since rebounding firmly, seeing both coins almost back up to where they started the year. The question now is: are we seeing the start of another move higher, continuing the long term pull trend? Or is this action merely a correction within a fresh downtrend?US Rates ImpactThe move lower in cryptos over late 2021 and across January 2022 was largely a function of the broader market recalibration in the face of heightened Fed tightening expectations. With inflation surging globally and US economic data continuing to improve as omicron risks faded, the prospect of a Fed rate hike cycle became a reality. As we saw with the broader risk complex, particularly the tech sector, this was a difficult time as the Dollar ran rampant.Cryptos Find Fresh DemandHowever, across Q1 and even across March as the first hike took place, risk assets have rebounded firmly with the Dollar failing to find the demand for a fresh push higher. Within this environment, cryptos have been able to rebound. It seems the inflationary environment and outlook, along with risks around the Ukraine conflict, and the Fed’s own tightening, is prompting fears of a downward impact on US growth. Indeed, flattening and inversion within the US yield curve is even pointing to recessionary risks.Upside RisksWithin this space, cryptos appear to be attracting a lot of demand again as speculators and investors look to move out of more traditional assets and back into an asset which they feel might better shield them from any coming difficulties for the US and even global economies. With order books having been significantly cleared in leading cryptos over late 2021, there is now plenty of room for fresh capital to enter and re-enter the market, suggesting scope for a continuation higher near term.Key Research HeadlinesIn terms of order book movements specifically, data from Santiment Research looks encouraging for higher prices near term. One of the group’s most-watched metrics; “mean Dollar invested age” has been flattening out recently, a dynamic which typically precedes a large upward movement in Bitcoin. Additionally, Glassnode Research, an on-chain analytics firm, has reported heavy accumulation recently along with largescale, reported purchases, from groups such as MacroStrategy and the Lunar Guard Foundation. Glassnode has assigned the current market action an accumulation trend score of 0.65 – 0.72 (1 being the highest), meaning the current phase is very bullish indeed. Looking ahead, this suggests the near term outlook for cryptos remain bullish, with the focus on a continuation higher across Q2.Technical ViewsBTCThe rally in Bitcoin off the sub 37030 lows has seen the market trading back above the broken long term bull trend line (blue). However, for now, price remains capped by the local bull channel top. The fear is that the current price action represents a bear flag formation, suggesting an eventual break lower. Bulls will need to see price quickly back above the 52260 level to assuage these fears and put the focus firmly back on higher prices. To the downside, a break of the current 45405 level will bring 41510 into play as the next key support ahead of the channel low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-correction-or-start-of-continuation-higher"
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EURUSD, H4 | Potential For Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.0947 Pivot: 1.08666Support: 1.08072Preferred Case:Prices are approaching a pivot which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. We see the potential for a short bounce from our Pivot at 1.08666 towards our 1st resistance at 1.0947 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 1.08072 which is a swing low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-or-potential-for-bounce6"
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USDCHF, H4 I Potential Drop

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.93698Pivot: 0.93086Support: 0.92132Preferred Case:With price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot of 0.93086 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st support at 0.92132 in line with the horizontal swing low support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 0.93698 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdchf-h4-i-potential-drop6"
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GBPAUD Next Support 1.7000?

The BoE is expected to raise interest rates in the second quarter of 2022, as Britain’s central bank tries to stem surging price pressures. The BoE raised its Bank Rate to 0.75% from 0.1% at the end of 2021 and money markets are currently forecasting an additional 125 basis point hike in interest rates this year. The latest BoE monetary policy releases show that the UK central bank expects headline inflation to top 8% in the coming months, citing high energy and food prices as the main drivers of the move.

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) inflation release showed headline inflation hit 6.2% in February, a fresh 30-year high, while core inflation rose to 5.2% from 4.4% in January. And even higher inflation rates are expected in Q2 this year. The UK’s central bank recently pushed back on these market expectations, concerned that a series of gains could hamper growth in the months ahead. UK growth is now back above pre-covid levels and looks strong, despite concerns that the Ukraine crisis and Russian sanctions will lead to further supply chain disruptions.

The GBPAUD exchange rate fell to four-year lows at the start of the new week and could risk slipping further towards 1.7000 over the coming days, after the Reserve Bank of Australia indicated in its April monetary policy statement that interest rates could still meet market expectations for a hike at the end of the year. The RBA noted that Australian inflation and wage growth had been picking up steadily in recent months, which was marked as a precondition for a hike in Australia’s benchmark interest rate. The RBA has made small steps to become less dovish in recent months, and the tone of today’s policy statement has added to the market perception that the RBA may raise interest rates in the not too distant future. Central banks of advanced economies are gradually withdrawing support for pandemic-era monetary policy, due to the sharp increase in inflation which far exceeds the targeted level in most cases, and the risk that it could remain above the target for a long time.

While financial markets have largely priced in the anticipated rate hike cycle that is likely to be seen in Australia, any reversal of the market’s large short positions would be an upside risk for the Australian Dollar and a potential source of continued pressure on the GBPAUD for some time to come.

Technical Overview

GBPAUD,D1 This cross is very vulnerable to a move to the downside, as long as commodity prices remain hot. Technically the bearish support is still very dominant, having surpassed several important support levels. Currently, GBPAUD is leveling its 4-year low of 1.7208 formed in December 2018. Meanwhile, the latest price has broken down to 1.7133. A daily close below 1.7208 has the potential to bring a move to test the 1.7000 psychological round figure mark. Even in the long term, if the conflict conditions in eastern Europe that sent commodity prices to a peak have not subsided, the Australian Dollar will still benefit. However, if the pair holds in consolidation around 1.7200 the minor correction ripple could also test the immediate resistance around 1.7619 or at 1.7731.

Broadly speaking, bear dominance remains with the upper hand and there is no indication of a trend change or correction wave yet.

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Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Investment Bank Outlook 06-04-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightThe USD has cemented its gains overnight, especially against the low-yielders that are the JPY and CHF. The hawkish comments made by some Fed members have seemingly continued to resonate, as US Treasuries have extended their sell-off during the Asian session, with in particular the 10Y yield rallying above 2.60% for the first time since H119. Elsewhere, equity futures have posted modest losses, while oil prices have held up fairly steady, as the slump in China’s Caixin services PMI to a new two-year low of 42.0 (vs 49.7 consensus) did not undermine sentiment too dramatically. For the day ahead, risk appetite could be dependent on the extent of the potential stepping-up of sanctions against Russia.CIBCFX FlowsRise in UST yields sent US$ higher, $YEN printed 124.00 and stayed firm throughout the session. I suspect that participants are very cautious for fear of rhetoric from Japanese officials about YEN weakness. Only ones selling are the retail day traders, whom have turned short. Key level on the topside is 125.00 and bids around 123.50.AU$ weakened from start, weak Caixin PMIs saw the pair printing 0.7562. Some Aussie banks have moved their calls for RBA rate hike to June. Nothing of interest in the option expiry today. Nearby support seen at 0.7550/55. RBA Deputy Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent deliver testimony to Senate Economics Legislation Committee at 5.30 pm Hong Kong.EUR$ slipped but very limited due to bids at 1.0890. I think we will be sticky around this 1.0900 area because of the strike expiring this week, total near €2.5bn. There is increased focus is being paid on the upcoming French election with first round voting now only days away. Marine Le Pen is seeing increased support in the polls at the expense of incumbent Macron.CitiEuropean OpenBond markets were shaken overnight following hawkish comments from Fed’s Brainard late in the European session. UST yields were up 7-8bps across all tenors, while Aussie and New Zealand bonds plunged drastically. The dollar continued to strengthen post European session, although it saw only a small tick higher in Asia. G10 currencies held tight to the dollar. EMFX saw KRW down sharply, with a bulk of losses from an open higher. US Equities held steady in Asia after continuing their dip in the US session, while oil prices ticked slightly higher in Asia. China saw Caixin PMI Services print shockingly low at 42 vs 49.7 consensus, although CNH remained somewhat flat. COP’s CPI early in the Asian morning printed just a tad above consensus.The FOMC minutes today will now be top of mind. The main information in the minutes should be further details around balance sheet reduction, including guidance on the possible size and composition of monthly runoff caps. SEK sees GDP prints, while EUR sees a flurry of activity in the form of German factory orders, Eurozone PPI and a speech from ECB’s Lane. CXK sees industrial output data, BRL sees an inflation print and HUF sees central bank minutes.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-06-04-2022"
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