GBPNZD, H4 | Further Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.91497Pivot: 1.91057Support: 1.89896Preferred Case:Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 1.91057 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 1.89896 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 1.91497 which is our next swing high.

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ETHUSD Forecast: Bears rolling up their sleeves?

ETHUSD, Daily

• Last month’s ERC-20 token creation was 125% higher than February’s.
• The imminent proof-of-stake fusion might result in favorable consequences for Ether.
• Ethereum began a new downtrend as it rejected $3,280 and $3,300.

Ethereum attempted an upward correction above $3,220. Although the price of ETH increased above $3,250, the bears arrived at $3,300. At the time of writing, ETHUSD was trading at $3,121, a decline of 1.84%.

Eating up gas

Gas consumption on Ethereum climbed by 13% in March, indicating a higher demand for block space. According to certain market analysts, greater gasoline use contributed to ETH’s rise above $3,500. Demand was fueled in part by the increased issuance of ERC-20 tokens and the proliferation of layer 2 applications. Arbitrum and Optimism are two layer 2 protocols that run on top of the Ethereum network. Demand has surged due to the popularity of Ethereum Virtual Machines (EVM) – compatible blockchains such as the Avalanche Contract Chain (C-Chain), Fantom Opera, and Polygon.

ETH 2.0

The year 2022 is shaping up to be the most momentous in Ethereum’s history. Although the precise date is uncertain, Ethereum is gearing up to complete the long-awaited Merge of its proof-of-work and proof-of-stake chains, dubbed ETH 2.0. As a consequence, ETHUSD is currently trading at a premium to its mid-March lows, when the Ethereum network overcame the last major obstacle ahead of the much-anticipated software update known as “the Merge.” Since March 14th, Ethereum has gained roughly 30%. The Merge will result in the Ethereum blockchain transitioning from the energy-intensive Proof-of-Work (PoW) model to the much more environmentally friendly/efficient Proof-of-Stake (PoS) model, which experts think will occur by the end of Q2 2022.

Goldman offering ETH

Institutions are paying close attention ahead of Ethereum’s transition to Proof-of-Stake, generally considered as the most significant technical advancement in the blockchain since 2015. In response to rising client interest in Ethereum, Goldman Sachs’ global head of crypto trading, Andrei Kazantsev, revealed on Tuesday that the bank would now provide over-the-counter (OTC) options trading in the cryptocurrency.

What to look for?

Whilst the present environment of high inflation has been beneficial for major cryptocurrency markets in recent months, the background of increasing interest rates and a more hawkish sounding Federal Reserve continues to be a source of negative risk and uncertainty for the cryptocurrency markets. Although ETH does not have an explicit cap on its total supply like BTC, many people still see it as a useful inflation hedge.

ETHUSD technical forecast: Bears in control?

The ETHUSD price is traveling below $3,200. The 4-hour chart shows a bearish crossover of the 50 and 100 SMAs. The price is below 20 SMA but above 200 SMA, indicating a bullish trend in the longer run. The next key resistance level is at $3,250. If the price goes above this level, it could further move towards the $3,300 mark. On the flip side, the next support is at $3,100. If the price declines below this level, it could further drift towards the $3,000 level.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Adnan Rehman

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Coffee Futures ( KC1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish Reversal

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 239.15Pivot: 235.90Support: 230.05Preferred Case:We see the potential for a bearish dip from our pivot at 235.90 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 138.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 230.05 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at resistance level.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 239.15 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.Fundamentals:No major news

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Cocoa Futures ( CCK2022 ), H1 Potential for Bearish Dip

Type: Bearish DipKey Levels:Resistance: 2748Pivot: 2697Support: 2596Preferred Case:We see the potential for a bearish dip from our pivot at 2697 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 138.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 2596 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by price trading below Ichimoku cloud indicator.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 2748 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.Fundamentals:No major news

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NZDUSD, H4 | Potential for Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.6872Pivot: 0.68085Support: 0.67286Preferred Case:On the H4, we expect to see a potential for a bullish bounce from our pivot level of 0.68085 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance level at 0.6872 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is at support level.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 1st support level at 0.67286 which is in line with the swing low support.

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EURUSD, H4 | Potential For Bounce!

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.09483Pivot: 1.08397Support: 1.08025Preferred Case:Prices are at a Pivot. We see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1.08397 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences and in line with a swing low toward our 1st resistance at 1.09483 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is on bullish momentum.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may dip towards our 1st support at 1.08025 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 200% Fibonacci projection.

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Investment Bank Outlook 11-04-2022

CitiEuropean OpenEaster holiday preparations frame a week, where markets trade on the heels of Sunday’s French Presidential election and updates from major central banks.ECB’s meeting follows Eurozone ZEW data and last week’s relatively hawkish minutes, which skew risk both to the hawkish and to the dovish side this time around. Meanwhile, a hawkish decision is expected for NZD, alongside a 50bp hike for CAD, and rate decisions across EM will feature hikes for KRW and ILS, holds for TRY and HUF, and a cut (MLF) for CNY. Minutes will be in focus for RON and CLP, as inflation concerns grow locally and globally.Central bankers will opine on recent decisions and data for EUR, CAD, USD, and JPY, as we wait for US CPI to solidify hawkish Fed expectations and UK CPI to test BoE’s dovish tilt. Inflation data also prints for JPY (PPI), SEK, NOK, CZK, RON, INR, ARS, INR, and CNY (Chinese CPI/PPI), with China’s data in particular focus, as lockdowns continue in China and spill over risk grows. China’s money supply and new yuan loans data will be worth watching. However, with select regional and global FX on holiday, participation around the updates may be light. HIGHLIGHTS BY CURRENCYG10USD: Fed’s Bostic Makes Opening Remarks at Fed Listens Event at 14:30 BST. (April 11); Fed’s Bowman, Waller Give Remarks at Fed Listens Event at 14:30 BST. (April 11); Fed’s Evans Discusses Economy and Monetary Policy at 17:40 BST. (April 11); NFIB Small Business Optimism at 11:00 BST for March. (April 12); CPI YoY at 13:30 BST for March. (April 12); Fed’s Brainard Takes Part in Wall Street Journal Live Event at 17:10 BST. (April 12); Fed’s Barkin to Discuss the Economy at 23:45 BST. (April 12); Retail Sales Advance MoM at 13:30 BST for March. (April 14); Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims at 13:30 BST. (April 14); U. of Mich. Sentiment, 1 Yr and 5-10 Yr inflation at 15:00 BST for Apr P. (April 14); Fed’s Mester Discusses Workforce Development at 20:50 BST. (April 14); Fed’s Harker Discusses Economy and Job Market at 23:00 BST. (April 14); Empire Manufacturing at 13:30 BST for Apr. (April 15); Good Friday (not Fed Hol). (April 15)EUR: France Presidential Elections. (April 10); France Trade Balance at 07:45 BST for Feb. (April 12); Germany ZEW Survey Expectations, Current Situation at 10:00 BST for Apr. (April 12); ZEW Survey Expectations at 10:00 BST for Apr. (April 12); Germany Current Account Balance for Feb. (April 12); Italy Industrial Production NSA YoY at 09:00 BST for Feb. (April 13); Industrial Production SA MoM at 10:00 BST for Feb. (April 13); ECB Main Refinancing Rate at 12:45 BST. (April 14); ECB President Christine Lagarde Holds Press Conference at 13:30 BST. (April 14); France Good Friday. (April 15); Germany Good Friday. (April 15)JPY: BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech at the Branch Managers Meeting. (April 11); PPI YoY at 00:50 BST for March. (April 12); Core Machine Orders MoM at 00:50 BST for Feb. (April 13); BOJ Kuroda Speech at the 97th Trust Companies Assembly at 07:15 BST. (April 13)GBP: Monthly GDP (MoM), IP and Trade Balance at 07:00 BST for Feb. (April 11); Jobs report at 07:00 BST for March. (April 12); CPI YoY at 07:00 BST for March. (April 13); Good Friday. (April 15)CAD: Bank of Canada Rate Decision & Quarterly Monetary policy report at 15:00 BST. (April 13); Bank of Canada's Macklem Speaks to Reporters After Decision at 16:00 BST. (April 13); Good Friday. (April 15)AUD: Westpac Consumer Conf Index at 01:30 BST for Apr. (April 13); Unemployment Rate at 02:30 BST for March. (April 14); Good Friday. (April 15)NZD: RBNZ Official Cash Rate at 03:00 BST. (April 13); BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI at 23:30 BST for March. (April 13); Good Friday. (April 15)SEK: PES weekly unemployment data at 11:00 BST. (April 11); Prospera Swedish Inflation Expectations Survey at 07:00 BST. (April 13); CPI YoY at 07:00 BST for March. (April 14); Good Friday. (April 15)NOK: CPI YoY at 07:00 BST for March. (April 11); Maundy Thursday. (April 14); Good Friday. (April 15)CHF: Good Friday. (April 15)

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EURJPY, H1 | Potential For Dip

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 136.053Pivot: 135.895Support: 135.661Preferred Case:Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 135.895 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 135.661 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI are at overbought levels.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 136.053 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

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Market Update – Stocks & Treasuries tank, Oil down again

Yields Bid, Stocks sink, EUR recovers, Oil lower   – Treasuries dived into close on Friday and are down again to start the week, and all other markets are taking a lead from the pronounced move. BOJ official confirms the BOJ will maintain its loose monetary policy.

• Stocks were mixed on Friday (NASDAQ -1.34%) weak in Asia (Covid & weak fixed income markets) & UK & European FUTS. off (-0.2 to 0.6%).
• Yields rally as curve steepens – US 10-yr  now at 2.776%.
• EUR picked up after French Election result. USD bid elsewhere.
• USD bid especially vs. weaker JPY (over 125), AUD, CAD & NZD.
• Oil down 2% – after addition reserves released from EIA countries.

Pope Calls On Russian & Ukraine Leaders To Observe Easter Truce. Biden to meet Modi and  call for no increases in Russian oil imports, Johnson met Zelenskiy in Kiev, Zelenskiy praise Scholz & Germany after meeting. Putin replaces top field General focuses on Eastern Ukraine, reports hw sees victory within 4-weeks.

Overnight – Chinese inflation leaps – CPI 1.5% vs 1.3% & 0.9% previously, PPI cools 8.3%vs. 8.1% & 8.8% previously. Weak UK GDP UK February monthly GDP +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected, other industrial data also missed, pressures Sterling.

Week Ahead  – The second week of April has some key data releases topped by the rate decision from the ECB, supported by decisions & outlooks from the BOC & RBNZ. Global Inflation data from China, Germany, the UK & US, US Retail Sales data and Australian Jobs data will provide more guidance on the outlook. The week also the heralds the start of the Q1 Earnings Season with the major Wall Street Banks all reporting.

• USDIndex rallied to new high 100.17 since May 2020 on Friday, trades at 
• US Yields 10-yr closed higher again at 2.713, up again now to 2.77%.
• Equities – USA500 -12 (-0.27%) at 4488. –  US500 FUTS 4476. Technology stocks & Consumer Discretionary led decline, & Energy led value stocks higher. TWTR -3.75% (ahead of Musk declining role on the board).  
• USOil – Trades at $95.90 following a rally to $98.00 on Friday and dip to $93.78, on Thursday. Oil markets lost over 3% last week.   
• Gold – gyrated from $1937 to $1950 on Friday, back to $1945 now.   
• Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to trade at 42k support now. 
• FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.0900 now from 1.0835 on Friday. USDJPY breaks key 125.00 to trade at 125.20 and Cable sinks back to test 1.3000 as the USD bid continues. 

European Open – European stocks up from early lows. European stock markets started lower, but have started to find a footing. DAX and FTSE 100 are still down -0.19% and -0.29% respectively, but the French CAC 40 is up 0.4%, against the background of easing election jitters after Macron managed to beat Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election yesterday. The two will now face each other in the final round on April 24, but with the result looking somewhat clearer than some polls had suggested French stocks are looking brighter this morning.

Today – Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Evans.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.99%) Recovering EUR and weaker JPY combine to push pair from 134.35 lows on Friday to 136.60 now. Next resistance 137.00 MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher, RSI 79.50, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.254, Daily ATR 1.54.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Arkady Volozh: Founder of Yandex's legacy is at threat due to Ukraine war

It took Arkady Volozh 20 years to build Yandex into Russia’s Google, Uber, Spotify and Amazon combined, says Wired – and just 20 days for “everything to crumble”. The country’s preeminent tech giant has been so stricken by the Ukraine war that there are doubts about its survival – at least in its current form.

Western sanctions have led to Yandex’s shares being frozen on US stock exchanges, which in turn has led shareholders to seek repayment on convertible note guarantees, reports Radio Free Europe. The company says it doesn’t have the $1.25bn to cover the sum. The now untradable stock is down nearly 80% since November, wiping off more than $20bn in market value. Big-name Western partners are deserting in droves.

A Russian miracle

Founded as a search engine in 1997, Yandex has spent years cultivating an image that it was far enough removed from the Kremlin to be considered a secure investment, says the Financial Times. It succeeded well enough to be viewed as “a Russian miracle” in Western tech circles.

But now Volozh’s hopes of becoming “a significant player on the global tech stage” have been smashed. There are also growing worries about its position at home, says Bloomberg. Russia’s “omnipresent tech company” is “facing a looming shortage of hardware” as US sanctions bite. According to sources, it may run short of semiconductors to power its servers in a year to 18 months’ time. By general consensus, the disaster couldn’t have happened to a nicer chap, says Wired. Arkady, as everyone in Yandex calls him, comes across as “the opposite of the stereotypically boastful, political knife-fighting Russian oligarch”. Indeed, he’s described as “self-effacing, cerebral, respectful”. The US angel investor and former Yandex board member Esther a business magnate”. Others consider him a visionary leader. He also clearly has skills in diplomacy – mastering the “high-wire act” of running an independent business while remaining on the right side of the Kremlin.

Born in 1964 to a Jewish family in the capital of Soviet Kazakhstan, Volozh’s father was an oil geologist and his mother a music teacher. As a child he was something of prodigy and attended a special school for students gifted in mathematics, where he formed a close relationship with “an equally precocious youngster”, Ilya Segalovich.

The pair headed to Moscow for college and after graduation started a series of small IT companies in the 1990s, “tinkering” with “the possible but unproven commercial potential of the internet”. Volozh likes to boast that their first search engine went live in September 1997, almost a year before Google. By 2009, it had a 56% share of the Russian-language market. Two years later, when Yandex floated on Nasdaq raising $1.3bn, it was hailed as the start of a new era.

Tiptoeing westward

Segalovich, who was openly antiKremlin, died in 2013, leaving Volozh running Yandex alone in an “increasingly nationalistic” climate. But lately Volozh had begun “tiptoeing westward” in a bid to make the firm “less reliant on its Russian business – and on the whims of Vladimir Putin”.

Yandex formed a joint venture with Uber and launched delivery services in London and Paris. But its most showy project is a Michigan-based selfdriving car trial launched in partnership with Grubhub. Volozh has long lived in Israel. He may now form the focus of a senior staff exodus, says The Times of Israel.

A Reuters report this week suggests that Yandex’s CEO Elena Bullina has resigned and left Russia for Israel. “I cannot work in a country that is at war with its neighbours,” she wrote. The company’s fate now hangs in the air, its former champion Esther Dyson told Radio Free Europe. “The future of Yandex depends on the future of Russia.”

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Daily Market Outlook, April 11, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, April 11, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed’s Mester Sees Inflation Rate More Than 2% In 2023 US To Supply Ukraine With ‘Weapons It Needs’ Vs Russia China Inflation Beats Forecasts On Oil, Covid Disruptions China Quickens Nuclear Buildup Over Fear Of US Conflict Shanghai Covid Cases Top 26,000 As City Outbreak Rises BoJ Official Warn Against Excessively Volatile Yen Moves EU Countries Remain In Dispute Over Russian Energy Ban EU Tense As Le Pen Heads To Second Clash With Macron Germany's Labour Minister Warns Growth To Drop To 1.5% Finland And Sweden Set To Join Nato As Soon As Summer US 10-Year Yield Rises To 2.75% For First Time Since 2019 US Banks Set For Hit To Revenues As Deal Making LessensThe Day Ahead Emmanuel Macron’s word of caution to his supporters is being echoed by investors after preliminary results from the first round of French presidential elections gave him a better-than-expected lead over Marine Le Pen. They express relief that the first hurdle has been crossed, but remain cautious that his nationalist rival still has a chance at the April 24 runoff. Here is what traders, economists and strategists say about Sunday’s results and what lies ahead. “While Macron seems likely to win, there is still plenty of uncertainty for the second round and we can expect a lot of noise and a lively campaign to keep markets nervous in the next two weeks. The outcome of the first round should lift the euro, the CAC 40 Index and other French domestic plays, financials in particular,” said Barclay The next four weeks, leading up to an annual Victory Day celebration in Moscow — are a crucial and intensely dangerous period in Russia's war on Ukraine, US officials and others familiar with Russian military history tell Axios. May 9 is a major holiday in the Russian Federation, with the country closing down each year to mark its World War II victory over the Nazis. That makes it a deadline with significant symbolism in Russian domestic politics. Any momentum would feed a push westward toward Kyiv. A senior Defense Department official told Axios on Thursday the US and other allies are rushing myriad forms of military assistance to Ukraine knowing the stakes of the next month. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba pleaded for all forms of weaponry ahead of the Russian assault. Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong US economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Federal Reserve. Economists surveyed put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a year ago. “Risk of a recession is rising due to the series of supply shocks cascading throughout the economy as the Fed lifts rates to address inflation,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. Economists slashed their forecast for growth this year. On average they see inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, down a full percentage point from the average forecast six months ago. The implications of a potentially quicker withdrawal of US monetary policy stimulus continue to dominate global financial market attention. In particular, the question remains whether the US central bank can tame high inflation without triggering an economic downturn. With the Fed is increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures broadening out to services, a 50bp rise at the next policy update on 4 May now seems likely and is fully priced in by markets. The Fed is also expected to approve a ‘runoff’ of it $9tn balance sheet to the tune of $95bn a month, a pace which implies a reduction of over $1tn a year. Ahead today, the Fed’s Bostic, Bowman and Waller are due to give remarks at a Fed Listens event, while Evans will discuss the economy and monetary policy.CFTC Data CFTC data for the week through Tuesday reflect some tempering in the overall bullish bet on the USD that had been building over the past few weeks. Aggregated positions across the major currencies we monitor in this report reflect non-commercial accounts cutting their USD long position by a little over USD2.1bn, to total USD14.2bn. Investors added somewhat to net EUR longs over the past week, taking the EUR bull bet up USD769mn to total USD3.7bn or around 27.3k contracts, close to where positioning has stabilized since mid-March. Speculative accounts also turned mildly bullish on the CAD, building a modest net long of USD554mn. Investors have been reluctant to commit to a firm view on the CAD over the past few months, however, and positioning has pivoted closely around flat since August; this week’s data suggests investors are still undecided on the CAD’s prospects. AUD net short covering represents the biggest positioning change over the week (and, along with the build up of net EUR longs, accounts for the bulk of the move against the USD). Net AUD shorts were cut USD882mn in the week to USD2.8bn. Note that net AUD shorts have been cut by the equivalent of some 54k contracts since peak bearishness (91k contracts) in January. Positioning changes elsewhere were very limited; net GBP shorts were lifted USD133mn in the week while net CHF shorts were increased by USD112mn. Net JPY shorts, which represent the biggest single currency bet in these data, grew by a similar amount to stand at USD10.5bn, close to the recent peak seen in October. Net positioning in the NZD and MXN remains largely flat and showed little change on the week. Outside of the major currencies, net gold longs were pared USD2.2bn to USD47.2bn.G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut(Hedging effect can often draw spot toward strikes pre expiry if nearby (P) Puts (C) Calls )- EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0825 711m 1.0850 617m 1.0975 450m 1.0995 3.2b 1.1050 368m- GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3195 330m 1.3220 452m- USD/JPY: USD amounts 121.50 325m 123.00 425m 123.25 355m 124.00 936m 125.00 400m- USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.9300 250m- USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.2350 599m 1.2395 595m 1.2475 528m 1.2500 589m 1.2635 350m 1.2650 975m 1.2665 581mTechnical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.12 Bullish above Eurozone money markets price in around 70 bps of ECB rate hikes by December, compared to 65 bps on Friday EU's Foreign Min. Borrell: Sanctions are always on the table. German DAX futures -0.7%UK FTSE futures -0.3%Stocks are pretty much continuing the more sluggish mood. While below 1.0950 focus remains on the downside. Bears target a test of 1.0711. A short squeeze through 1.1040 needed to change the near term bearish lean.GBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.3350 Bullish above. United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.1%) UK: Real GDP grows by 0.1% in February vs. 0.3% expected GBP trades heavy with an offered tone post data. Bears target a test of 1.2920’s as the next downside objective Focus remains on the downside while 1.31 is defended from aboveUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 120 Bearish below USD/JPY is up 0.6% on the day with the latest jump helped by the ongoing rout in the bond market. The Treasury's 10-year yield hits 2.75% for the first time since 2019. BoJ's Uchida: The Bank of Japan will closely monitor the impact of currency movements on Japan's economy and prices. BOJ cuts assessment for 8 of 9 Japanese regions in latest regional economic report. Upside breach of 1.26 opens the way for test of 126.18 Focus remains firmly on the upside while 1.24 is defended from belowAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7300 Bearish below AUD/USD eyes three-week’s low at 0.7400 amid aggressive Fed’s tightening bets AUD/USD drops to to session lows as China’s CPI lands at 1.5% Australian federal election will be held on May 21 A loss of .7390 would set the course for a deeper correction to test pivotal .7290 While .7290 acts a support focus remains on the upside. A daily close below would be a bearish development.

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Key Economic Events and Reports for the Week Ahead

The markets’ focus next week should continue to remain on commodity prices, disruptions in trade and supply of commodities. The inflation they generate is difficult to manage by Central Banks of developed countries, as it can only be suppressed by destruction of consumer demand, which is fraught with even greater economic and political troubles.A good part of the sanctions against the Russian Federation have already been introduced, so markets will scrutinize primary and secondary consequences of inflation, which should be traced in incoming economic reports. Among them are inflation in the US and UK for March (released on Tuesday and Wednesday), as well as retail sales in the US for March.Markets will also assess rhetoric of central banks regarding near term evolution of inflation pressures to understand their response function. The RBNZ and The BOC will hold their meetings on Wednesday while the ECB will update their policy stance on Thursday. The RBNZ is expected to raise rates by 25 bp, the Bank of Canada by 50 bp, and the ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

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Three Indian tech stocks to buy in a fast-changing sector

Indian information technology (IT) services companies have benefited hugely from the adoption of digital technology around the world. There are compelling opportunities in this sector, where corporate governance is generally strong and capital efficiency is high. On average, leading IT services companies have a return on capital employed (ROCE) of 50% (excluding cash), and the conversion factor of accounting earnings to free cash flow is around 90%.

Indian IT services occupies a dominant position in the technology services sector, providing cost-effective and scalable solutions for enterprises across the world. India’s IT exports are worth over $160bn per year (around 13% of total global IT spend), and have grown at an annual rate of 20% over the last 20 years.

Beating the tech-refresh cycle

Companies can stay ahead in this highly competitive sector by adapting to changing conditions quickly and decisively. While this is applicable to every sector, it is especially true of the IT sector, which has been disrupted by a “techrefresh” cycle at least once every five years. This phenomenon goes far beyond enterprises replacing their existing systems. It involves updating key elements of IT infrastructure, including customer interfaces, to maximise efficiency. Indian IT players have been agile, which has enabled them to gain market share in a fragmented industry in which the largest company (IBM) has just 4% market share. In 2010 Indian IT services supplied 6.7% of global IT services.

By 2021 this had almost doubled to 13%. The latest inflection point was in 2015 when the entire IT services industry was disrupted by digital transformation and the adoption of cloud-based services. These trends were further accelerated by the pandemic. Indian IT services companies have been making targeted investments in technology and delivery while up-skilling their workforce at scale.

Some of the bigger companies have also built a comprehensive suite of full-stack technology platforms (ie, an entire set of software). Mid-cap companies have shown resilience, backed by strong leadership and expertise. Indian IT firms emerged from the 2015-2020 tech refresh cycle with double-digit growth, led by strong traction in digital services, which is now a significant part of their revenues.

Three top stocks

Each of the following companies have invested heavily in building digital capacities and have developed expertise in their selected areas. Infosys (NYSE: INFY) is a $106bn company (by market cap) that provides business consulting and outsourcing services. It is India’s second-largest IT services firm and is an established global leader with a highquality customer portfolio and a strong presence in more than 50 countries. Mphasis (Mumbai: MPHASIS) is a mid-tier IT services firm and solutions provider, specialising in cloud and cognitive services.

It has a strong position in custom application development and management for banking and financial services. Persistent Systems (Mumbai: PERSISTENT) is a mid-sized digital engineering and enterprise modernisation company. Its niche position is founded on deep expertise in healthcare and life sciences, and in financial services, including adjacent areas such as health technology and financial technology.

Ayush Abhijeet is an  adviser of the Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust PLC.

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Why hackers are increasingly targeting small businesses - and what they can do about it

Cyberattacks can strike almost any company. Books and crafts retailer The Works had to close some stores temporarily this week after hackers got into its systems.

In February, deliveries of crisps and nuts were disrupted when KP Snacks was hit by a ransomware attack. Smaller businesses certainly aren’t immune. The government’s latest annual Cyber Security Breaches Survey reports that 48% of small businesses have identified a cyberattack over the 12 months. Worse still, 31% say they are now being attacked at least once a week. 

The impact of these attacks can be considerable. While many breaches are repelled, hackers only need to get lucky once. The government’s data suggests that one in five attacks have direct negative consequences, ranging from financial costs to a loss of data. The average bill for each such attack was £3,080 for small businesses.

The pressure is on for small businesses to invest in cybersecurity, not least due to fears that Russian hackers could increase attacks on Western organisations. Equally, the response needs to be proportionate. Small businesses are less likely to find themselves on the end of an attack from state actors, and their resources are more limited anyway. Few small businesses are in a position to appoint in-house cybersecurity professionals.

Taking care of business

Many small businesses are already making good use of third-party products and services that provide a decent level of protection. There is also growing awareness of the potential value of cyber insurance policies, which can provide practical support as well as covering financial losses. However, small businesses need to address these issues coherently. The government’s data suggests only 37% of small businesses have a formal cybersecurity strategy in place, which suggests too many firms haven’t thought about how to protect themselves. In any case, it would be a mistake to depend entirely on third-party support. Every business, irrespective of size, is capable of making its own improvements through a focus on basic precautions.

How to get started

The government-backed Cyber Essentials scheme is a good starting point. It aims to equip businesses with the tools to protect against common cyberattacks, such as phishing threats, and to reduce their vulnerabilities through solutions such as patching software.

Taking part can also drive commercial benefits. Businesses certified as having met the scheme’s requirements will have a more reassuring story to tell customers. Some potential clients may even make certification a requirement for their suppliers: the government already insists on this for certain public sector contracts. Getting certified carries a cost of up to £500, depending on the size of your business. But there is lots of free help to get you through the process and improve your security. The government’s National Cyber Security Centre publishes a Cyber Essentials Readiness Tool to help you get started. A questionnaire will help you determine your current level of cybersecurity and provide you with information, as well as a custom plan for you to follow based on your answers.

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