Putin Cuts Gas Supply to Poland & Bulgaria

Putin Backs Up ThreatsRussia has this week followed through on its threat to sever gas supplies with countries refusing to meet Putin’s demand that gas payments be made in Rubles. Gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria has been switched off in light of both countries refusing to satisfy Putin’s demands. With further payment deadlines from other countries in Europe due this week, there is a very strong likelihood that we see gas supply reduced even more.Gas Prices Spike HigherGas prices have spiked higher in response to the news, with speculators driving price higher in anticipation of further supply “switch-offs” coming imminently. While EU member states had initially agreed in principle to refuse Putin’s requests, developments last week suggested room for a potential compromise, to allow EU states to continue receiving Russian gas. However, in light of this latest aggression, such a compromise appears less likely.First Major Disruption In Over A DecadeThe turning off of supply to Poland and Bulgaria marks the first time that energy supplies to Europe has been halted since the Russia-Ukraine energy price dispute in 2006 and 2009. Commenting on the move, Polish leaders reassured citizens that they have enough reserve supplies so that consumers will not be negatively impacted near term. Bulgaria, however, said that it only has enough supplies for the next month or so.EU Leaders Meeting TodayEU leaders are due to meet later today to discuss next steps with regards to the possibility of banning Russian energy imports into the customs bloc. EU leaders have been highlighting the need to develop independence from Russian energy and reduce the leverage Putin has over Europe with regards to energy supply. In light of the announcements this week there is the potential that the EU seeks to retaliate. However, given that many member states are still far away from energy independence, it is unclear how much room there is for a counter move.EUR Taking A HitEUR has come under heavy selling pressure following news of the energy supply disruption. Fears of the impact on the overall eurozone economy of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict have been a major headwind for EUR this year, with little sign of a rebound near term.Technical ViewsNatural GasThe correction lower from the 8.202 level has seen Natural Gas prices finding strong support into the 6.516 level. With momentum indicators moving higher off lows, and while this support level holds, the focus is on a continuation higher near term. Below 6.516, the next key support to note is the 5.881 level.

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PayPal Earning Report

PayPal’s first-quarter 2022 earnings report is scheduled to be released today after market close. This guide will predict the company’s first-quarter earnings report based on the company’s last quarterly report. PayPal announced its fourth-quarter profits for 2021 on February 1, 2022. For the first time, the business exceeded $1 trillion in annual TPV, concluding the year with $1.25 trillion in total payment volume. Additionally, it handled 5.3 billion transactions in the fourth quarter, a 21% increase over the previous quarter.

The firm gained 49 million customer accounts throughout the year, bringing the total to 426 million at the end of the year. The engagement metric of transactions per active account climbed by 11%, a 10% increase over 2020 [1].The average number of transactions per active account has grown to 45 this year, an increase of 11% compared to last year’s $5.4 billion in annual free cash flow. In the fourth quarter, total payment volume climbed by 23% to $340 billion.

In the third quarter, eBay volumes decreased 45% to 2.7% of total sales, down from 6% the previous year. Volumes climbed by 28% on a currency-neutral basis when eBay was excluded. In the fourth quarter, revenue increased 13% to $6.9 billion [2]. “We still have the eBay transfer to complete. This change obscures some of the business’s inherent strength,” Dan Schulman, CEO of PayPal, said [3].He noted that eBay presented  $1.4 billion in sales last year, and that amount should be closer to $600 million this year. By the third quarter, PayPal will no longer be required to adjust its eBay results.

Cross-border volumes and small company merchants were disproportionately affected by supply chain issues, with inflation affecting expenditures in some parts of PayPal’s customer base.

Growing COVID variant risks resulted in a decline in travel and event bookings, and the government stimulus cut had an impact as well. Despite a solid two-year growth rate of more than 50%, e-commerce growth rates were lower than industry predictions over the Christmas season.

Quarter 1 2022 sales expectations range between 6.3 billion and 6.5 billion dollars, with an average of 6.4 billion dollars. Earnings per share projections for Quarter 1 2022 vary from 0.82 cents to 0.97 cents, with a mean expectation of 0.88 cents.

 Source: money.cnn

Additionally, PayPal said that it intends to add between 15 million and 20 million new accounts this year, reducing its earlier target of 750 million total accounts.PayPal anticipates revenue growth of 15% to 17% in 2022 on a spot and foreign-currency-neutral basis. Analysts forecast a 17.9% year-over-year growth in revenue in 2022 [4].

PayPal Stock Analysis

PayPal (PYPL) has been declining since the beginning of the year. The stock has fallen more than 56% so far. PYPL is now trading at 87.03, having just broken below the weekly inside bar. On the daily chart, the price is far below the 100-day moving average, and the MACD is trending downward, indicating a negative trend.

PYPL’s next resistance level is around 107.59. That happens to be an imbalance. If it breaks through this level, the stock may go towards 115.17. On the other side, the stock’s support level is located at about 81.39. If the price breaks through this level, it may continue to fall toward 68.81 [5].

1. https://s1.q4cdn.com/633035571/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Q4-FY-21-PayPal-Earnings-Release.pdf
2. https://s1.q4cdn.com/633035571/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Q4-FY-21-PayPal-Earnings-Release.pdf
3. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/01/paypal-pypl-q4-2021-earnings.html
4. https://s1.q4cdn.com/633035571/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Q4-FY-21-PayPal-Earnings-Release.pdf
5. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PYPL/chart

 

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Adnan Rehman

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Investment Bank Outlook 27-04-2022

CIBCFX Flows$YEN had a very brief visit to 126.965 early this morning, there was no headlines so we believe it was positioning in thin market. $YEN headed higher after Tokyo opened, yields of UST also gained. Good demand for the Tokyo fix sent the pair to 127.64. Activity slowed soon after, $YEN drifted lower. $YEN rose again into the Tokyo lunch hour.We witnessed good two-way interests in $CAD before and after the Toronto closed. It was first paid up from 1.2825 up to 1.2833, likely to be linked to ETFs. Once that was over, the pair was sold down to 1.2805. Buying resumed out of North Asia and was again sold as we approach the Tokyo fix. We will have Canadian February payroll tonight plus CFIB business barometer, monthly GDP on Friday.Australia Q1 inflation data was hot and is boosting a central bank election rate hike. Trimmed mean CPI rose 1.4% over the quarter and 3.7% over the year, our macro strategist said the case for RBA hiking is weak because inflation is clearly above target, wages data is sought and is an out for the Bank. Patrick believes RBA will move next week. The AFR said Q1 inflation was always expected to be high but today’s release exceeded all expectations, increasing breath of inflationary pressures and growing upstream disruptions in China means that May board meeting in play for rate hike. AU$ which has been climbing since the start jumped to 0.7171 on the data. There was no follow-through, back below 0.7150. Will the EUR$ break 1.0600? Recycling of intervention US$ could help. Once that clears, traders will take aim for 1.0570, low of April 2017. Then again, put strike at 1.0600 rolls off today worth €1.41bn could prevent the move. A weaker could drive Eurozone inflation higher, which will come into focus this Friday. However, ECB’s cautious policy stance will appear more detached while the Fed is taking action to curb inflation.$THB rally stalled at 34.35. Yesterday, BoT warned that it is closely monitoring the price action and is ready to take action if moves become volatile. Well, weaker THB due to Fed tightening, China’s lockdowns and dividend. I doubt aggressive actions, most likely, smoothing. Thai government confirmed that on May 1, fully vaccinated travellers to enter without having to quarantine and RT-PCR Covid-19 test upon arrival. Technically, 34.20 is the new support, stronger at 34.00. Topside 34.50.Credit AgricoleAsia OvernightWeak US technology stock earnings and the ramping of energy supply tensions in the EU weighed on sentiment in Asian trading. In a warning shot to the rest of the EU, Russia has cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, which refused to meet Russia’s demand to pay for gas in RUB. Providing sentiment with some relief was a pledge by China to ramp up infrastructure construction spending in order to help support its economy. HK and China bourses bucked the general trend in Asia on rallies, but the rest of Asian equities were trading in the red at the time of writing. S&P 500 futures were trading higher at the time of writing. Strong Australian inflation data and modest risk-on trading in G10 FX led to the AUD outperforming and the JPY underperforming during the Asian session.

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USDCHF H4 | Potential Bearish Reversal

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.97979Pivot: 0.96372Support: 0.94604Preferred Case:We expect that price will potentially reverse from pivot level of 0.96372 in line with 161.8% fibonacci extension and -61.8% fibonacci expansion towards the 1st support level of 0.94604 in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price might break the key pivot level and head towards the 1st resistance level of 0.97979 in line with previous horizontal swing high resistance.

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AUDUSD H4 Potential For Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.72462Pivot: 0.71182Support: 0.65361Preferred Case:We see the potential of a bullish continuation from pivot level of 0.71190 in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection towards the 1st resistance level of 0.72476 in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Otherwise, price might break the key support level to trigger a dip towards the 1st support of 0.70553 which is in line a previous horizontal swing low support.

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Market Update – April 27 – Aggressive central bank moves hanging over markets

Concern over aggressive tightening moves has resurfaced and Australia’s 10-year yield declined, as the short end of the curve was pressured by a jump in headline inflation which lifted to 5.1% y/y in Q1 – the highest level since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax in the early 2000s. Stocks struggled not surprisingly struggled, although mainland China bourses finally bounced back. Gold was back in demand temporarily and Oil prices backed up, with the USOIL at $102.46 now. The Yen sold off, while the USDIndex is moving further above the 102 level. Russia halts gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.

• The 10-year Treasury yield is up 4.4 bp, with the curve flattening as the short end underperformed.
• Stocks – Nikkei and ASX meanwhile corrected -1.2% and -0.8% respectively with tech stocks under pressure after the weaker close on Wall Street yesterday. USA100 cratering -3.95%. The USA500 dropped -2.81% and the USA30 sunk -2.38%. GER40 and UK100 are slightly higher at the moment, but underperforming versus US futures.
• Earnings have been mixed but the advent of the key reports ahead left a very cautious environment. While a lot of reports have been better than expected, Q2 outlooks have been cut while guidance has been uncertain. Alphabet was down about 3% , GE disappointed and was the poster child for the headwinds, revealing problems supply chains, rising costs, and shortages of materials and labor.
• USDIndex remains on bid, at 102.52 highs.
• Oil spiked to 102.96, as Russia, which has been demanding payments for its gas in roubles as sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine bite, said it will halt supplies to Poland and Bulgaria from Wednesday.
• Gold back below the $1900
• FX markets – USDJPY took over the 128 mark again, EURUSD extents to 1.0615, GBPUSD steady to the downside at 1.2558, USDCAD to 1.2828 highs.

Today – ECB’s President Lagarde speech , BoC’s Rogers speech, BoC’s Governor Macklem speech.

Biggest FX Mover @(07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.29%) Breached 92. MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher close to neutral zone, RSI at 45 , all signaling a pullback. H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 1.195.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Daily Market Outlook, April 27, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, April 27, 2022 Overnight Headlines Australia Banks Pull Forward Hike Calls After Inflation Surprise China Cabinet Split Over Opening Stimulus ‘Flood Gates’ Treasury Yields Extend Slide Amid Signs Of Extreme Bearishness Deutsche Bank Sees 5%-6% Fed Target Rate And U.S. Recession Euro Falls To Five-Year Low Against Dollar As Growth Risks Eyed Oil Rises On Russia Gas Tension, China Stimulus Hopes Stocks Extend Sell-Off, Dollar Firm On Global Growth Fears Microsoft Waves Off Macroeconomic Worries With Bullish Forecast Alphabet’s Earnings Decline As YouTube Revenue DisappointsThe Day Ahead Asian equity market performance is mixed this morning. Many markets are down seemingly reflecting concerns about the news that Russia has cut off gas flows to Bulgaria and Poland, which has fanned fears of a wider halt of supplies to Europe. However, Chinese indices are up following President Xi’s call for “all out” efforts to boost infrastructure constriction. In Australia, Q1 annual CPI inflation rose by a higher-than expected 5.1% (from 3.5% in Q4). The Japanese government announced a package of measures to combat rising inflation. Today’s economics calendar is light. The CBI retail survey will provide one of the first gauges of April sales. Last week’s official data for March saw retail sales decline for the third time in four months. Some of that weakness may represent households spending more on consumer services, which are not included in the retail sales measure, as Covid restrictions end. However, there are concerns that the drop also represents the impact of rising inflation eating into consumers’ spending power and a further share decline in GfK measure of consumer confidence for April will have done nothing to ease those fears. Consequently, the CBI report will be watched for more signs of weakness in April. In the US, pending home sales for March will provide further indications of whether concerns about higher interest rates are already starting to impact on the housing markets Pending sales as of February had fallen four consecutive months and were more than 5% lower than a year ago. That may exaggerate the extent to which sales weakened and so today’s data may surprise on the upside. However, there seems no doubt that a sector that is particularly interest rate sensitive should be one of the first to be impacted. Early tomorrow, the Bank of Japan will give its latest monetary policy update. It is not expected to make any immediate policy changes. However, of particular interest will be whether it has anything new to say about this year’s sharp slide in the Japanese yen. There has been speculation in markets that the BoJ may tweak its ‘forward guidance’ to signal a higher probability that interest rates may be raised in the not-too-distant future. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank head Lagarde is set to speak but her remarks may not touch on monetary policy.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut USDJPY - 129.50 440m. 129.00/10 670m. 127.50/70 1.00bn (603m C). 127.00/10 650m. 126.70 540m. EURUSD - 1.0900/10 1.75bn (1.54bn P). 1.0800 1.45bn (1.19bn P). 1.0750/60 618m. 1.0700/10 1.16bn (1.11bn P). 1.0650 409m. 1.0600 1.41bn (P). 1.0500 769m. GBPUSD - 1.3000 1.19bn (P). 1.2900 1.10bn (P). AUDUSD - 0.7450 1.86bn (C). 0.7360/70 724m. 0.7340/50 470m. 0.7130/50 688m. 0.7090/0.7100 447m. NZDUSD - 0.6830 1.83bn (1.50bn P). 0.6730 1.38bn (1.10bn P). USDCAD - 1.2470/80 566m. USDCHF - 0.8550 600m. 0.9300/10 1.32bn (1.14bn P). USDMXN - 20.10 745m. USDCNH - 6.65 400m. 6.50 700m.Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0950 Bullish above Remains under pressure and clings to 2020 low EUR/USD opened -0.70% at 1.0637 after EUR fell against USD and JPY It tried to rally early Asia before running into sellers at 1.0652 EUR/USD traded to a 5-year low at 1.0633 but there was no follow-through Heading into the afternoon it is trading 1.0635/40 with a heavy tone A sustained break below 1.0620 targets eventual move to 2017 low at 1.0340 EUR/USD trending lower with the 5, 10 and 21-day MAs in a bearish alignment A break above the 10-day MA at 1.0769 is needed to ease the pressureGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.30 Bullish above. Oversold short term, but 1.2500 test beckons +0.1% in a 1.2560 - 1.2590 range in a busy session on D3 U.S., UK trade officials to meet for 3rd round of talks in Boston Broad U.S.-UK trade agreement a long term work in progress Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages head lower 21 day Bollinger bands expand - strong bearish trending setup Targets a test of 1.2496, 61.8% of the 2020-2021 rise Close above 1.2897 10 day moving average to undermine downside bias Asian 1.2560 low and NY 1.2697 high initial support and resistanceUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 125 Bearish below Japanese importer buys and fresh short-covering sending USD/JPY higher Into Europe, USD/JPY now to 127.94, closing in on 128, low earlier 126.97 Good Japanese importers buys into Tokyo fix, forces specs shorts to bail Position adjustments (JPY buys) ahead of BoJ tom, Golden Week holidays over USD/JPY through ascending 200-HMA at 127.77, descending 55-HMA at 127.82 Some resistance from hourly Ichi cloud between 127.88-128.23 Plenty option expiries below today, tomorrow to help limit downside US yields also up-ticking after fall o/n, today, Tsy 10s 2.715% to 2.778%AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7300 Bearish below Regains footing, traders bet on RBA May rate hike AUD/USD rallies 0.9% as Australian inflation hits 20-year high Core inflation rises above RBA's 2-3% target band for first time since 2010 Traders rush to price in a interest rate hike by RBA on May 3rd AUD/JPY rises 1.2% on demand out of Tokyo, provides a further boost for AUD Upside limited; China growth concerns & rising risk aversion to cap rallies Resistance 0.7200-05, 0.7225-30, support 0.7150-55, 0.7120-30

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Soybean Oil Futures (ZL1!), H1 Potential for Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance: 83'13Pivot: 81'56Support: 79'99Preferred Case:With price expected to reverse off the resistance of the Ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 81'56 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance towards our 1st support level of 79'99 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 83'13 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance.Fundamentals:No major news

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NZDUSD H4 | Potential for Bullish Bounce Type

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.67285Pivot: 0.66317Support: 0.65361Preferred Case:We see the potential of bullish bounce from pivot level of 0.65331 in line up with 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection towards the 1st resistance level of 0.67284 in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price might break through the key pivot level and trigger a dip towards the 1st support level of 0.63834 which is in line with previous horizontal swing low support.

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Investment Bank Outlook 26-04-2022

CIBCFX FlowsReady, Steady, Go! Position unwinding kicked off the Asian session. $YEN had a quick move lower, this was accompanied by AUD¥. $YEN fell to 127.35 before bounce back to 127.58 for the Tokyo fix. Japanese Finance Minister confirmed that the media report about Japan-US joint intervention is fake news. Well, nothing new, MoF had already made this claim on Saturday. One commentary noted that the pair needs to close below 127.20 in order for better correction, paving for 125.00. Activity calmed down and eyes turned to offshore $CNH.PBoC pledged to increase support for the real economy, will step up the prudent monetary policy, will add Y100bn relending quota for coal mining and storage. That didn’t help, onshore opened up higher and $CNH jumped from 6.5880 to 6.6100. Madness, crazy, the wild move lasted 3-plus minutes, then slowed down. Onshore $CNY moved below 6.55 and dragged the $CNH along.With sale of AU$¥ earlier, AU$ slipped to 0.7170. But that reversed as we got close to the Tokyo fix. Most of the session the pair stayed in the 0.7180s, moved higher with recovery in Chinese stock market. Iron ore prices still weak, Dalian futures fell more than 2.5%. Fresh offers said to stack up above 0.7220 and more into 0.7240s. Move up onto 0.72-handle follows the move down in $CNH. Market will be keeping a close eye on the Q1 CPI out on Wednesday April 27. Forecasts for another robust set of numbers, putting pressure on RBA to act. Most economists see RBA hiking in June, there was one forecaster calling for hike in May which we doubt so because of elections. Furthermore, there is another risk, weaker growth in China due to continued lockdowns.EUR$ rose amid softer $YEN, felt as though fresh bids have been replenish below 1.0710. They could be linked to the €4.7bn worth of EUR put strikes at 1.0700 due this week. Will be hearing from de Cos and Villeroy later today.Oil futures have been stable and so is the CAD. Weak stops noted above 1.2790 then sellers reappear higher. About $750mio of 1.2785 US$ call strikes will roll off today. No Canadian data out today.CitiEuropean OpenG10 has continued to revolve around China growth outlook with CNH rallying after new PBoC policy commitments proved a welcome boost for domestic stock markets. China-sensitive FX followed suit with AUD, NZD outperforming while rising oil prices buoyed oil-linked currencies. Risk assets felt tailwind with global stocks broadly supported and USD slipped leading USD Asia lower, while PHP was boosted by hawkish central bank comments. Treasuries back under pressure. Focus remains on central bankers as EUR sees de Cos and Villeroy scheduled to appear while HUF is expected benefit from a 100bps rate hike. We look for an improvement in labor markets for PLN and consumer confidence data for USD.

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USDCHF H4 | Potential Bearish Reversal

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.96639Pivot: 0.96326Support: 0.94711Preferred Case:Price is near to the key pivot level. We expect that price will potentially reverse from the pivot level of 0.96326 in line with 161.8% fibonacci extension towards the 1st support level of 0.94702 in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price might break the pivot level and rise towards the 1st resistance level of 0.96639 which lines up with -61.8% fibonacci expansion.

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GBPNZD H4 | Potential For A rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.94491Pivot: 1.91575Support: 1.91067Preferred Case:On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the support of Ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1.94491 where the horizontal swing high resistance is from our pivot at 1.91575 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 50% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.91067 where the horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement

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Gold H4 | Potential For A Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1918Pivot: 1892Support: 1875Preferred Case:On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the stochastics indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1918 where the pullback resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is from our pivot at 1892 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1875 where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

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Market Update – April 26 – Fragile Sentiment

Sentiment stabilised, after a mostly gloomy session for stocks yesterday. Wall Street got a late boost. Across the Asia Pacific region, the ASX underperformed in catch up trade, after returning from yesterday’s holiday, though global growth fears stoked by China’s strict COVID-19 curbs and an expected streak of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening sapped risk appetite. Wall Street surged and closed with gains, as Twitter jamped sharply on news Elon Musk finalized his purchase for some $44 bln. The late pop on Wall Street pulled rates up. Treasury yields are up from early double-digit lows. Switzerland’s trade surplus narrowed to just CHF 1.8 bln in March, from CHF 5.5 bln in February. The UK government reported a GBP13.1 bln deficit in March this year, less than markets had expected, but still the second-highest number for March.

• Yields closed in the green but well off of double-digit lows early in the day when the market caught a flight to safety bid. The 5-year finished 2 bps lower at 2.845%, with the wi 2-year down 2 bps to 2.650%, and the 10-year off 1.3 bps to 2.806%. Bund yields are backing up and the German 10-year rate has lifted 2.9 bp to 0.86%
• Stocks –  The USA100 has climbed over 1.29%, while expectations for solid gains from Microsoft Tuesday added to the rally. The USA30 and USA500 closed with gains of 0.70% and 0.57% as well after trading in the red much of the day as growth concerns weighed heavily, with a steep slide in energy. Nikkei lifted 0.4%. 
• USDIndex remains on bid, at 101.85 highs.
• Oil prices dropped by 4% at $95.05 but added 0.89% to $99.42 a barrel currently. Worries over China’s fuel demand were soothed by the central bank’s pledge to support an economy hit by renewed COVID-19 curbs.
• Gold dips to $1890 more than 2- month support.
• FX markets – USDJPY dropped back to 1.2787, although AUD and NZD and to a lesser extend the CAD outperformed, after being pressured yesterday.  EUR and Sterling remain at low levels against the USD, with Cable at 1.2740 and EURUSD at 1.0710.

Today – This week’s calendar is loaded with key data, events, and earnings that will give hawks and doves plenty of ammunition and keep the markets in flux. Today focus turned to US Durable goods and Consumer Confidence.

Biggest FX Mover @(07:30 GMT) USDZAR (+0.94%) Breached 15.82. MAs still aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but very close to neutral zone, RSI 67 and rising, H1 ATR 0.05376, Daily ATR 0.2097.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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